Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Poll ended at Sun Apr 24, 2011 7:21 pm

Yes
27
68%
No
13
33%
 
Total votes: 40
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Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by minhtam1638 » Sat Apr 09, 2011 7:21 pm

Well, after seeing how Kanade pretty much dominated every godly contestant every to appear on ISML, I think it's safe to say Kanade wins Aquamarine hands down. Agree or disagree?
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by hinakatbklyn » Sat Apr 09, 2011 7:29 pm

I don't see Kanade losing so early. If there's an upset of Kanade from any of the closer challengers, it would happen later on.
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Dusk252 » Sat Apr 09, 2011 7:34 pm

hinakatbklyn wrote:I don't see Kanade losing so early. If there's an upset of Kanade from any of the closer challengers, it would happen later on.
Yeah, me neither. I think she'll win Aquamarine. And it's pretty good that each character can only win one necklace this year or else Kanade would get the majority of them. I'm glad that new rule was introduced^^
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by shiraoky » Sat Apr 09, 2011 7:35 pm

I'm pretty sure it'll just be a given that Kanade will win this, unless some miracle occurs (or some anti-voters...>.>) XD
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by xcrossfacekillahx » Sat Apr 09, 2011 7:40 pm

She must win this time and she can't get another necklace after
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Momento10 » Sat Apr 09, 2011 8:24 pm

As of right now, yes. However, I would like it if she won Diamond instead. It probably looks better on her then Aquamarine. Then again, I guess both can work for her.
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Team Rocket Elite » Sat Apr 09, 2011 8:33 pm

Definitely not. Kanade will certainly make the Necklace Showdown and will certainly take first place by a fair margin. However, that isn't enough to win the Aquamarine necklace. Kanade can't do anything if she goes into the Necklace Showdown with a large enough SDO handicap. Misaka can win the necklace if she has a decent SDO lead. If Shana pulls another 2010 Diamond Period and finishes with something like 99 SDO, even she might get close enough to Kanade to win the Aquamarine necklace.
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Chocola » Sat Apr 09, 2011 8:33 pm

Group 1 of Seeding 3 is a good indication of how the Necklace Matches will be.
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Toady » Sat Apr 09, 2011 8:35 pm

Kanade would probably win more than one necklace with the former system. With the new system, she'll only win the first... But that's cool, I didn't like when Shana monopolized the necklaces, it's better this way.

But Kanade will win Aquamarine. Clearly.
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Jack_Rav » Sat Apr 09, 2011 8:37 pm

I wouldn't bet against it. Although I would prefer to see her win either the Amethyst or Diamond necklaces, I think Aquamarine is good as well. :)
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Eater-of-All » Sat Apr 09, 2011 8:48 pm

No. I don't like the word lock; Kanade has as good a chance, maybe higher even, to win a necklace as any top-tiered girl, but whether she does win or not is still dependent on the schedule and SDO.

Regarding the results of group 1 of seeding r3, being able to vote only 1 girl out of 7 is a whole different dynamic compared to 2 out of 7, not to mention that it's not set in stone the combination in group 1 will be the combination that appears in the Aquamarine necklace match. If Yui-nyan or Yuri happens to reach it, for instance, suddenly Kanade is now a victim of vote-split.

All I can say is that Kanade has the highest chance to win Aquamarine... but it's nowhere near a lock.
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Dusk252 » Sat Apr 09, 2011 8:52 pm

Team Rocket Elite wrote:Definitely not. Kanade will certainly make the Necklace Showdown and will certainly take first place by a fair margin. However, that isn't enough to win the Aquamarine necklace. Kanade can't do anything if she goes into the Necklace Showdown with a large enough SDO handicap. Misaka can win the necklace if she has a decent SDO lead. If Shana pulls another 2010 Diamond Period and finishes with something like 99 SDO, even she might get close enough to Kanade to win the Aquamarine necklace.
But won't taking first place in the period pretty much guarantee her a large SDO? I mean, unless she only takes on weak opponents. That'll depend on luck... or seeding. I don't really know how the matches are organized so I can't say much. But could you please give me some more insight on that?
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Toady » Sat Apr 09, 2011 8:57 pm

Eater-of-All wrote:No. I don't like the word lock; Kanade has as good a chance, maybe higher even, to win a necklace as any top-tiered girl, but whether she does win or not is still dependent on the schedule and SDO.

Regarding the results of group 1 of seeding r3, being able to vote only 1 girl out of 7 is a whole different dynamic compared to 2 out of 7, not to mention that it's not set in stone the combination in group 1 will be the combination that appears in the Aquamarine necklace match. If Yui-nyan or Yuri happens to reach it, for instance, suddenly Kanade is now a victim of vote-split.

All I can say is that Kanade has the highest chance to win Aquamarine... but it's nowhere near a lock.
SDO won't change anything because :
At the end of the seventh Round in each Period, the seven (7) highest ranked and eligible Contestants will participate in the Necklace Showdown, a free-for-all voting round to determine the winner of the Necklace representing that period.
Meaning that if a Contestant wins her 7 matches, she's almost sure to make it in the Showdown, no matter what the others do. And Kanade will probably win her seven first matches. I agree that she's not sure of winning the following showdown, but I think the probability that she wins is over 95%, which is enough for me to say she's a lock.
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Dusk252 » Sat Apr 09, 2011 9:03 pm

Toady wrote:
Eater-of-All wrote:No. I don't like the word lock; Kanade has as good a chance, maybe higher even, to win a necklace as any top-tiered girl, but whether she does win or not is still dependent on the schedule and SDO.

Regarding the results of group 1 of seeding r3, being able to vote only 1 girl out of 7 is a whole different dynamic compared to 2 out of 7, not to mention that it's not set in stone the combination in group 1 will be the combination that appears in the Aquamarine necklace match. If Yui-nyan or Yuri happens to reach it, for instance, suddenly Kanade is now a victim of vote-split.

All I can say is that Kanade has the highest chance to win Aquamarine... but it's nowhere near a lock.
SDO won't change anything because :
At the end of the seventh Round in each Period, the seven (7) highest ranked and eligible Contestants will participate in the Necklace Showdown, a free-for-all voting round to determine the winner of the Necklace representing that period.
Meaning that if a Contestant wins her 7 matches, she's almost sure to make it in the Showdown, no matter what the others do. And Kanade will probably win her seven first matches. I agree that she's not sure of winning the following showdown, but I think the probability that she wins is over 95%, which is enough for me to say she's a lock.
But winning the necklace isn't only making it to the showdown and winning. Imagine she wins it with 25% of the votes and had a SDO of 55 in that period while the girl who got 2nd in the showdown got 17% of the votes and had a SDO of 85. The 2nd place will win the necklace because 17*85=1445 while 25*55=1375 and obviously 1445>1375.
ISML 2011 Charter wrote:5. At the end of the round, each Contestant receives a Necklace Score, calculated as the product of her voting percentage for the round of and her SDO for the entire Period.
6. The Contestant with the highest Necklace Score will be awarded the Necklace. Ties are resolved according to the procedure list in the preceding section (Rule VII.E).
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Toady » Sat Apr 09, 2011 9:11 pm

Mmmh, sorry. Seems I had forgotten about this rule 5.
The SDO between the different contestants who won their seven matches can change quite a lot. I don't think though we'll have that much difference in SDO in Aquamarine if the tournament is built like last year, because the matches making this kind of differences only happen in Diamond.

But you're right. I'm not 95% sure anymore. 80% perhaps.
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Team Rocket Elite » Sat Apr 09, 2011 9:14 pm

Eater-of-All wrote:No. I don't like the word lock; Kanade has as good a chance, maybe higher even, to win a necklace as any top-tiered girl, but whether she does win or not is still dependent on the schedule and SDO.

Regarding the results of group 1 of seeding r3, being able to vote only 1 girl out of 7 is a whole different dynamic compared to 2 out of 7, not to mention that it's not set in stone the combination in group 1 will be the combination that appears in the Aquamarine necklace match. If Yui-nyan or Yuri happens to reach it, for instance, suddenly Kanade is now a victim of vote-split.

All I can say is that Kanade has the highest chance to win Aquamarine... but it's nowhere near a lock.
Depending on how scheduling goes, I think it's even possible both Yuri and Yui make it to the necklace round. They need to go 6-1 and have high SDO and the might do it.
Dusk252 wrote:
Team Rocket Elite wrote:Definitely not. Kanade will certainly make the Necklace Showdown and will certainly take first place by a fair margin. However, that isn't enough to win the Aquamarine necklace. Kanade can't do anything if she goes into the Necklace Showdown with a large enough SDO handicap. Misaka can win the necklace if she has a decent SDO lead. If Shana pulls another 2010 Diamond Period and finishes with something like 99 SDO, even she might get close enough to Kanade to win the Aquamarine necklace.
But won't taking first place in the period pretty much guarantee her a large SDO? I mean, unless she only takes on weak opponents. That'll depend on luck... or seeding. I don't really know how the matches are organized so I can't say much. But could you please give me some more insight on that?
Kanade won't necessarily finish first in the period. She'll win all 7 of her matches, but her SDO depends on how well her opponents do. Kanade taking on weak characters* for her matches is the potential problem. Currently we don't know what the schedule is so we don't know if it will be a problem or not. If she does draw weaker opponents, she won't have a very high SDO. It depends on her luck.

* If it's like last year, the characters will be roughly divided into 7 tiers based on strength and everyone fights one characters from each tier. Kanade could still end up fighting characters from the bottom of each tier or characters that draw other characters at the top of their tiers which harm her SDO.
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Chocola » Sat Apr 09, 2011 9:18 pm

Here are my thoughts. First of all, based on Seeding 3, Kanade will destroy her opponents in the Necklace Match by a huge margin. All that remains is that Kanade wins 7 matches, which is certain, and that her SDO isn't extremely low.

Now here we do a little probability exercise. The chance that there EXISTS a large gap in SDO between two 7-win contestants is low, let's say 1/7. Within this probability, there is another condition that Kanade is at the low end of the extreme AND the one at the high end must do very well (take 2nd place) in the Necklace Match. So in ISML, anything can happen, and there is never any "lock", which means I must define "lock" to be over 95%. I estimate the chance that, 1) there exists a huge gap in SDO, 2) Kanade has the lowest SDO, 3) the highest SDO takes 2nd in the Necklace match, to be less than 5%, so in my opinion Kanade is a sure lock. There is another condition that this must happen not only at most once, but in the very first period, so taking that into the probability equation would result in Kanade winning Aquamarine at about 99%.
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Midst » Sat Apr 09, 2011 9:36 pm

Yes, I would think Kanade will win the necklace, but anything can happen. I just hate the word "lock".
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Dusk252 » Sat Apr 09, 2011 9:44 pm

Thanks for enlightening me TRE. I get it much better now. And so it really is a matter of luck with the matches... But I still agree with KholdStare88: while anything can happen in ISML, Kanade's chances of winning this necklace are really high. So I maintain my vote.
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Chocola » Sat Apr 09, 2011 9:53 pm

Let's do this then.

The chance someone fights the weakest of each tier = (1/6)(1/7)^6
The chance Kanade fights the weakest of each tier = (1/50)(1/6)(1/7)^6

So the latter chance is 0.0000000283%
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