Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Poll ended at Sun Apr 24, 2011 7:21 pm

Yes
27
68%
No
13
33%
 
Total votes: 40
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Bastion » Sun Apr 10, 2011 12:22 am

I think Tenshi has a good chance of going the whole regular season without an actual loss, but the actual necklace matches may have enough anti-voting for her to miss out on Aquamarine.

While I'm guessing that she might be the champion of the year, I'm just not sure enough about her winning the first necklace out of the gate. There are still strong competition members who might be able to steal it away from her.

I'm going to say that one of the first three or four necklaces goes to her, but I'm not positive it'll be the Aquamarine.
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Kiopi » Sun Apr 10, 2011 12:46 am

So far no one has actually gone undefeated in the Regular Season. Mio looked like one that could pull it off last year and that was when K-On!! was still running IIRC but that never materialized. Going undefeated and putting down enough top-tier characters is enough to push some voters into anti-vote mode.

The risk of defeat would most likely increase around the second half of the Regulars. Maybe somewhere in the last two periods where she will start meeting the stronger opponents.
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Bastion » Sun Apr 10, 2011 12:55 am

Kiopi wrote:So far no one has actually gone undefeated in the Regular Season. Mio looked like one that could pull it off last year and that was when K-On!! was still running IIRC but that never materialized. Going undefeated and putting down enough top-tier characters is enough to push some voters into anti-vote mode.

The risk of defeat would most likely increase around the second half of the Regulars. Maybe somewhere in the last two periods where she will start meeting the stronger opponents.
That is true, but we're also using a different structure to determine the necklace winners this year. If those win/loss gather up all the hate-votes, it might be possible to pull off a no-loss regular season.
Tenshi might be the first girl to be able to pull it off, and it sounds like she's got the backing to do so.
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Chocola » Sun Apr 10, 2011 12:58 am

Remember that you guys commented how "carefree" the seeding matches were since they don't affect anyone's records. The necklace matches are exactly the same. Except for the necklace being awarded, winning or losing in the group match doesn't affect your W, L, SDO, or any other stat that calculates to the Top 16.
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Kiopi » Sun Apr 10, 2011 1:10 am

Arcion wrote:
Kiopi wrote:So far no one has actually gone undefeated in the Regular Season. Mio looked like one that could pull it off last year and that was when K-On!! was still running IIRC but that never materialized. Going undefeated and putting down enough top-tier characters is enough to push some voters into anti-vote mode.

The risk of defeat would most likely increase around the second half of the Regulars. Maybe somewhere in the last two periods where she will start meeting the stronger opponents.
That is true, but we're also using a different structure to determine the necklace winners this year. If those win/loss gather up all the hate-votes, it might be possible to pull off a no-loss regular season.
Tenshi might be the first girl to be able to pull it off, and it sounds like she's got the backing to do so.
Mio only won one necklace and that was Aquamarine in the beginning of the season. Her first loss was at the end in Diamond. That's a big gap in time passing. A repercussion of an unbeaten run? And maybe anti-voting by Shana supporters?
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Bastion » Sun Apr 10, 2011 1:20 am

Kiopi wrote:Mio only won one necklace and that was Aquamarine in the beginning of the season. Her first loss was at the end in Diamond. That's a big gap in time passing. A repercussion of an unbeaten run? And maybe anti-voting by Shana supporters?
If I remember correctly, it was because it took that long for her to face an opponent strong enough and the anti-voting was building up the whole season, but the two never came together well enough to cause a loss earlier in the season.

If the no-loss hate-votes are dissapated somewhat at the end of each necklace, without affecting her w/l ratio, she could pull it out.
Jamie AB is open for business. How would you like your hare-brained scheme?
Confusing statements are fun :p
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Eater-of-All » Sun Apr 10, 2011 3:49 am

Arcion wrote:If the no-loss hate-votes are dissapated somewhat at the end of each necklace, without affecting her w/l ratio, she could pull it out.
Actually yeah, it might help. I can imagine there being less anti-votes if there is no worry that Kanade will win more than one necklace. And also:
KholdStare88 wrote:Remember that you guys commented how "carefree" the seeding matches were since they don't affect anyone's records. The necklace matches are exactly the same. Except for the necklace being awarded, winning or losing in the group match doesn't affect your W, L, SDO, or any other stat that calculates to the Top 16.
They don't affect things statistically directly, but if, say, Kanade is barred from entering 6 of them due to the one-necklace rule, it might help keep her VA stat a teeny tiny bit lower, maybe. :bigsmile:


(Though I'm probably overestimating the influence of anti-votes here, but I've been doing that for the last 3 years; might'as well continue)
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by advance94 » Sun Apr 10, 2011 4:20 am

I would not say a lock since anything is possible
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Team Rocket Elite » Sun Apr 10, 2011 4:35 am

Arcion wrote:
Kiopi wrote:Mio only won one necklace and that was Aquamarine in the beginning of the season. Her first loss was at the end in Diamond. That's a big gap in time passing. A repercussion of an unbeaten run? And maybe anti-voting by Shana supporters?
If I remember correctly, it was because it took that long for her to face an opponent strong enough and the anti-voting was building up the whole season, but the two never came together well enough to cause a loss earlier in the season.

If the no-loss hate-votes are dissapated somewhat at the end of each necklace, without affecting her w/l ratio, she could pull it out.
Mio's first loss last year was to Aisaka Taiga at the end of Ruby. Mio had already defeated Shana before this match back during Amethyst.
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Kiopi » Sun Apr 10, 2011 5:23 am

My bad. I was just quoting off the top of my head and I thought her loss to both Taiga and Hinagiku were both in Diamond. Still that does not exclude the possibility that it was partly due to payback from Shana supporters using Taiga to anti-vote the same way Mikoto was used against Shana in DE.
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by loudmouth » Sun Apr 10, 2011 5:24 am

Let me just make sure I understand this correctly.

Last year Necklaces were decided based on SDO attained that period. Facing and defeating stronger opponents (Specifically opponents who won most of their other matches that period) increased SDO. This is why Mio won the Aquamarine necklace and never won another despite never dropping a match until Ruby 7. Under this format, Kanade wouldn't ever have a definitive lock on winning a necklace.

This year, however, in the ISML charter VII. F.
At the end of the seventh Round in each Period, the seven (7) highest ranked and eligible Contestants will participate in the Necklace Showdown, a free-for-all voting round to determine the winner of the Necklace representing that period.
Which makes it seem like Kanade's victory is all but assured.

I cast my vote under the assumption that last years rules were still in effect ^^; and I've changed my mind and Kanade is a lock for Aquamarine
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Eater-of-All » Sun Apr 10, 2011 6:24 am

loudmouth wrote:Let me just make sure I understand this correctly.

Last year Necklaces were decided based on SDO attained that period. Facing and defeating stronger opponents (Specifically opponents who won most of their other matches that period) increased SDO. This is why Mio won the Aquamarine necklace and never won another despite never dropping a match until Ruby 7. Under this format, Kanade wouldn't ever have a definitive lock on winning a necklace.

This year, however, in the ISML charter VII. F.
At the end of the seventh Round in each Period, the seven (7) highest ranked and eligible Contestants will participate in the Necklace Showdown, a free-for-all voting round to determine the winner of the Necklace representing that period.
Which makes it seem like Kanade's victory is all but assured.

I cast my vote under the assumption that last years rules were still in effect ^^; and I've changed my mind and Kanade is a lock for Aquamarine
The SDO still matters in calculating Necklace Points (2011 ISML Charter VII. F. 5), but yeah it does mitigate that scheduling luck factor by alot and raise her chances.

If you want to switch your vote by the way, the poll allows you to do so. :bigsmile:
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Momento10 » Sun Apr 10, 2011 4:07 pm

Well, the only way Kanade could not get in is if (in the event that she goes undefeated in aquamarine, which is likely), there are 7 girls who have a perfect score and their SDO is higher than Kanade (which is highly unlikely since that has yet to happen). Consider if Yui and/or Yuri walks into the match with a 6-1 score but a high enough SDO to be with the 7 contestants. There could be split votes which could bring Kanade down and the necklace winner could be, let's say, Azusa. I guess my point is that anything can happen in ISML, so a lock is not always true.
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by kuachai » Mon Apr 11, 2011 1:57 am

I thought the person with more wins (more points) will always rank higher disregard of SDO?
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by loudmouth » Mon Apr 11, 2011 2:52 am

kuachai wrote:I thought the person with more wins (more points) will always rank higher disregard of SDO?
I believe that is correct. Or at least it was last year. I managed to find an instance from last year where one contestant went 5-2 in a period but got a higher SDO than a couple of the contestants who went 6-1 and the contestants with 6-1 were ranked higher. It's pretty unusual though I would guess.
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Team Rocket Elite » Mon Apr 11, 2011 2:57 am

kuachai wrote:I thought the person with more wins (more points) will always rank higher disregard of SDO?
You're right. They do. However, the Necklace Score that determines if a characters gets a necklace only depends on SDO and the Necklace Showdown results. It's possible for a character with a 6-1 period record to win a necklace over a character with a 7-0 period record. It's not likely due to a character with a 6-1 record likely having a much lower SDO than a character with a 7-0 record and thus the 6-1 character goes into the Necklace Showdown at a big disadvantage.
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by amdrag » Mon Apr 11, 2011 8:40 am

loudmouth wrote:
kuachai wrote:I thought the person with more wins (more points) will always rank higher disregard of SDO?
I believe that is correct. Or at least it was last year. I managed to find an instance from last year where one contestant went 5-2 in a period but got a higher SDO than a couple of the contestants who went 6-1 and the contestants with 6-1 were ranked higher. It's pretty unusual though I would guess.
It's not ultra-rare, though. There was one point in 2009 where Kawashima Ami was 4-0 in Diamond, but had an SDO of ZERO.
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Wolfnagi » Mon Apr 11, 2011 8:48 am

Anything is possible right now.....

I will say no, because things might go haywire.....
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Miku » Mon Apr 11, 2011 10:06 am

Ah, interesting discussion. I tried to calculate the condition that Kanade is unable to get the Aquamarine Necklace in a more probable situation.
Firstly, the vote percentage I reference that in the Seeding Period Day 3. Kanade's is 21.71% and the second place, Azusa's is 15.28%.
Then, I checked the statistics of Regular Season Period in 2010. Based on the 7-wins characters' statistics, the highest SDO was 99(performed by Shana in Diamond Period) and the lowest SDO was 57(performed by Hinagiku in Amethyst Period).
Kanade's Necklace Score might be
21.71% * 57=12.3747
while second place's Necklace Score might be
15.28% * 99=15.1272

In this case, Kanade wouldn't get the Necklace even she finally get first place in the Necklace Showdown. So we can never say that Kanade will be 100% sure to lock the Necklace. All in all, as Ks' calculation above shows that the extremely unlucky situation would have a very very approximate probability to 0. As a consequence I draw the conclusion that Tenshi might nearlly lock the Necklace.
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Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by maglor » Mon Apr 11, 2011 10:10 am

I will simply say no, and even go further and say while Kanade may have the best chance for necklace among all 50 contestants, I would still say it is less than 50%.
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