Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Poll ended at Sun Apr 24, 2011 7:21 pm

Yes
27
68%
No
13
33%
 
Total votes: 40
User avatar
Chocola
Hikarin's Kitty
Hikarin's Kitty
Posts: 7459
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2009 3:31 am
Worships: Kousaka Reina
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: Hikachu to not hate me

Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Chocola » Mon Apr 11, 2011 10:50 am

Miku wrote:Kanade's Necklace Score might be
21.71% * 57=12.3747
while second place's Necklace Score might be
15.28% * 99=15.1272
This is an informative post. If we take the the results of the seeding match to be the same as the necklace match (risky, but most accurate prediction), then we have this equation.

.2171x < .1528y, where less than means Kanade loses

0 < 0.1528y - 0.2171x
0 < 0.1528y - 0.1528x - 0.0643x
0 < 0.1528 ( y - x ) - 0.0643x

0.0643x < 0.1528d

d > 0.4208x, where d = difference in SDO and x = Kanade's SDO

This means in order for Kanade to lose the necklace, the difference between the leader's SDO and Kanade's SDO has to be greater than 0.4208 times Kanade's SDO. Let's take Diamond of 2010, where Mikoto got 60 SDO and Shana got 99 SDO. Now let's assume Kanade has 60 SDO.

d > 0.4208 * 60 = 25.2

So if the difference between Kanade's 60 SDO and the top SDO getter is greater than 25.2, then Kanade loses. 60 + 26 = 86. Now let's analyze what this means.

1) Four characters gets 7 wins.
2) Kanade has to be the one with 60 SDO (lowest).
3) The one with the highest SDO must have 86 SDO or higher.
4) The one with 86 SDO or higher has to get 2nd in the necklace match.

Using (1) and (2), the chance Kanade has the lowest SDO is 1/4. Using (4), the chance one of the remaining 3 with the highest SDO get 2nd in the necklace match is (3 C 1)(1/3)(1/6) = 1/6. This probability of Kanade losing is (1/4)(1/6) = 4.17%. According to my definition of lock being 95% or more, these calculations would suffice making Kanade a lock.

But we're not done yet. We haven't used the part where the one with the highest SDO must get 86 SDO or more (3). This only happened once in 2010, so if we include this as a rough estimation (1/7), then the probability will be (1/4)(1/6)(1/7) = 0.00595%, which is the chance Kanade will lose. This means the chance Kanade will win the necklace is 1 - (1/5)(1/4)(1/7) = 99.4%. This is now a sure lock.
ImageImageImage
ImageImageImage
MAL Ratings ISML Chat, Saimoe Blog, Saimoe Wiki
A tall, towering wall looms in front of me. Beyond that is something that I could never to see on my own.
And that is...the view from the top.
User avatar
maglor
~Fukou da~
~Fukou da~
Posts: 8870
Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 8:57 pm
Badges:
ImageImage
Worships: Abriel Nei Debrusc Borl Paryun Lafiel
Melon Pan: 75
2020 Female Favorite: Holo
2020 Male Favorite: Natsume Takashi
2019 Female Favorite: Akemi Homura
2019 Male Favorite: Arima Kōsei
2018 Female Favorite: Chtholly Nota Seniorious
2018 Male Favorite: Yang Wenli
Wish: More people being open to alternatives and compromises.

Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by maglor » Mon Apr 11, 2011 10:56 am

If Kanade gets 1st in necklace group with vote of more than 21% while the 2nd is at 16% or lower, then Kanade will likely get the necklace. The trouble is I think that Kanade falls into category similar to Kuronuma Sawako as mentioned by others ( TeamRocketElite ? ): She is someone people don't hate thus people's 2nd choice in many occasion. The Necklace group will be 1 vote per group format. I think the percentage difference between Kanade and others will be lower than 4+% Kanade needs, especially if Kanade hate will grow. Judging from what I have seen so far, Kanade hate might reach epic proportion by the necklace group stage.

I wonder why I so often plays Devil's Advocate....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Devil%27s_advocate" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Image
User avatar
Miku
Sacred jewel
Sacred jewel
Posts: 355
Joined: Tue Jun 01, 2010 10:42 am
Worships: Fate Testarossa
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: Someday can step onto Hockenheimring or Nürburgring to shout for local racing drivers!
Location: Deutschland

Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Miku » Mon Apr 11, 2011 11:42 am

maglor wrote:If Kanade gets 1st in necklace group with vote of more than 21% while the 2nd is at 16% or lower, then Kanade will likely get the necklace. The trouble is I think that Kanade falls into category similar to Kuronuma Sawako as mentioned by others ( TeamRocketElite ? ): She is someone people don't hate thus people's 2nd choice in many occasion. The Necklace group will be 1 vote per group format. I think the percentage difference between Kanade and others will be lower than 4+% Kanade needs, especially if Kanade hate will grow. Judging from what I have seen so far, Kanade hate might reach epic proportion by the necklace group stage.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Devil%27s_advocate" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Yes, I believe it will be different from the Seeding Period in the Necklace Showdown, since the Seeding Period allowed voters to choose at most 2 characters while the Necklace Showdown only require 1 single. These still unknown things keep suspense till the end and make our League more interesting. So far I believe Kanade will be the most probable character to win the necklace. Despite the accurate probability, I estimate it would be definitely high, may be far beyond the probability that she fails. So most of us have the impression that this is "locked".
maglor wrote:I wonder why I so often plays Devil's Advocate....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Devil%27s_advocate" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Pretty good allegory. :D
And thanks to your Devil's Advocate roleplay, Ks was willing to give such a long and informative post above, which had not appeared through a long long time. :lol:
ImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImage
SpoilerShow
ImageImageImage
Elizabeth F. Beurling (Silver Fox) From: Maritime State Britannia
User avatar
kuachai
Harem lead
Harem lead
Posts: 197
Joined: Sun Mar 21, 2010 4:23 pm
Melon Pan: 50
Location: Singapore

Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by kuachai » Mon Apr 11, 2011 3:18 pm

Hmm...sort of out of topic, but since the necklace showdown only allows for one vote, won't people from the same series in a slight disadvantage as there will be split votes?
User avatar
maglor
~Fukou da~
~Fukou da~
Posts: 8870
Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 8:57 pm
Badges:
ImageImage
Worships: Abriel Nei Debrusc Borl Paryun Lafiel
Melon Pan: 75
2020 Female Favorite: Holo
2020 Male Favorite: Natsume Takashi
2019 Female Favorite: Akemi Homura
2019 Male Favorite: Arima Kōsei
2018 Female Favorite: Chtholly Nota Seniorious
2018 Male Favorite: Yang Wenli
Wish: More people being open to alternatives and compromises.

Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by maglor » Mon Apr 11, 2011 6:02 pm

kuachai wrote:Hmm...sort of out of topic, but since the necklace showdown only allows for one vote, won't people from the same series in a slight disadvantage as there will be split votes?
yes
Image
User avatar
Team Rocket Elite
Moon princess
Moon princess
Posts: 3211
Joined: Wed Feb 18, 2009 2:43 am
Badges:
Image
Worships: Bernkastel
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: dried plums to go with the tea.

Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Team Rocket Elite » Tue Apr 12, 2011 1:16 am

kuachai wrote:Hmm...sort of out of topic, but since the necklace showdown only allows for one vote, won't people from the same series in a slight disadvantage as there will be split votes?
Yes. Except I think it's more likely to be a big disadvantage than a slight disadvantage.
A miracle that you believe in when you know it won't happen......... is hope.
User avatar
Yakuman
Berserker
Berserker
Posts: 1329
Joined: Mon Feb 14, 2011 11:13 pm
Worships: Kurumi-sama *.*
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: more
Location: Budapest

Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Yakuman » Tue Apr 12, 2011 1:32 am

I can only see that happening with Mio / Azu-nyan and Yuki / Haruhi though. If Yurippe or Yui-nyan makes it to the necklace showdown by chance, I doubt they will be able to steal enough votes from Tenshi for the others to defeat her.
Hurry up and make a contract with me! ◕‿‿◕ ImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImage
defeated but not forgotten favoritesShow
ImageImageImage
Materials used in the sig are courtesy of Marinara, ppizzapie, Hikari-chan and Annabloem
User avatar
Team Rocket Elite
Moon princess
Moon princess
Posts: 3211
Joined: Wed Feb 18, 2009 2:43 am
Badges:
Image
Worships: Bernkastel
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: dried plums to go with the tea.

Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Team Rocket Elite » Tue Apr 12, 2011 2:15 am

Yakuman wrote:I can only see that happening with Mio / Azu-nyan and Yuki / Haruhi though. If Yurippe or Yui-nyan makes it to the necklace showdown by chance, I doubt they will be able to steal enough votes from Tenshi for the others to defeat her.
Well, it would still be a big disadvantage for Kanade. She's just so powerful she'll win anyways. >_>
A miracle that you believe in when you know it won't happen......... is hope.
User avatar
loudmouth
Intelligent device
Intelligent device
Posts: 1369
Joined: Mon Jul 05, 2010 2:06 am
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: To go to heaven

Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by loudmouth » Tue Apr 12, 2011 7:31 am

Team Rocket Elite wrote:
Yakuman wrote:I can only see that happening with Mio / Azu-nyan and Yuki / Haruhi though. If Yurippe or Yui-nyan makes it to the necklace showdown by chance, I doubt they will be able to steal enough votes from Tenshi for the others to defeat her.
Well, it would still be a big disadvantage for Kanade. She's just so powerful she'll win anyways. >_>
More likely it would be a severe disadvantage for Yuri or Yui and a slightly noticeable disadvantage for Kanade. I think that in the case of Angel Beats! unlike shows like K-ON! or IS or something, where everyone has their own favorite character, there seem to be considerably more AB! fans who prefer Kanade than who prefer any of the rest of the cast.
ImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImage
User avatar
Team Rocket Elite
Moon princess
Moon princess
Posts: 3211
Joined: Wed Feb 18, 2009 2:43 am
Badges:
Image
Worships: Bernkastel
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: dried plums to go with the tea.

Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Team Rocket Elite » Tue Apr 12, 2011 7:53 am

loudmouth wrote:
Team Rocket Elite wrote:
Yakuman wrote:I can only see that happening with Mio / Azu-nyan and Yuki / Haruhi though. If Yurippe or Yui-nyan makes it to the necklace showdown by chance, I doubt they will be able to steal enough votes from Tenshi for the others to defeat her.
Well, it would still be a big disadvantage for Kanade. She's just so powerful she'll win anyways. >_>
More likely it would be a severe disadvantage for Yuri or Yui and a slightly noticeable disadvantage for Kanade. I think that in the case of Angel Beats! unlike shows like K-ON! or IS or something, where everyone has their own favorite character, there seem to be considerably more AB! fans who prefer Kanade than who prefer any of the rest of the cast.
Both Yuri and Yui would defintely be screwed if they made the Necklace Showdown. However, unless they get lucky, they won't win all 7 matches and probably won't have enough SDO to be in the running the win the necklace.
A miracle that you believe in when you know it won't happen......... is hope.
User avatar
ilkaid
Paladin
Paladin
Posts: 1097
Joined: Wed Jun 03, 2009 2:38 pm
Worships: Furude Hanyū
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: More free time
Location: Brighton, England
Contact:

Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by ilkaid » Tue Apr 19, 2011 2:20 pm

I reckon Kanade stands a very good chance, its not a certain (cause nothing is) but still a very good chance.
User avatar
JinS
Pokémon master
Pokémon master
Posts: 28
Joined: Sat Feb 19, 2011 6:03 am
Worships: Nagato Yuki
Melon Pan: 50

Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by JinS » Sun Apr 24, 2011 6:23 pm

I think she is the favorite to win it, but as multiple characters are probably going to go undefeated this period, a couple of characters might come out ahead based on vote differential. I guess it all depends on how easy their matches are for this period.
Image
User avatar
superunature
Intelligent device
Intelligent device
Posts: 1381
Joined: Mon May 31, 2010 5:53 pm
Worships: Akiba
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: Rabu touch!
Location: Imouto's room

Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by superunature » Mon May 09, 2011 5:37 am

Kanade got this
User avatar
HeartClover
Space cowboy
Space cowboy
Posts: 2997
Joined: Fri Apr 22, 2011 10:57 pm
Worships: Audrey Hepburn
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: adventure
Location: the internet

Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by HeartClover » Wed May 11, 2011 4:38 am

well, right ow it seems as though she isn't as much of a lock as we all expected. i blame the personed who planned the schedules for tenshi's SDO. but she still has a chance, since she'll probably win the necklace round!
Image
Thanks to my lovely Emjayfor the sig~
User avatar
Chocola
Hikarin's Kitty
Hikarin's Kitty
Posts: 7459
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2009 3:31 am
Worships: Kousaka Reina
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: Hikachu to not hate me

Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Chocola » Wed May 11, 2011 4:49 am

Isn't it strange that this thread was created and somehow Kanade has crap SDO?
ImageImageImage
ImageImageImage
MAL Ratings ISML Chat, Saimoe Blog, Saimoe Wiki
A tall, towering wall looms in front of me. Beyond that is something that I could never to see on my own.
And that is...the view from the top.
User avatar
loudmouth
Intelligent device
Intelligent device
Posts: 1369
Joined: Mon Jul 05, 2010 2:06 am
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: To go to heaven

Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by loudmouth » Wed May 11, 2011 4:54 am

As it turns out, she isn't a lock. I didn't understand the new system fully. I thought you just had to win the 8th round to win the necklace but the fact that SDO still plays a large part (Smaller now but still important) means that the SoS can make or break anyone, no matter who they are. In fact, I think it's more likely that she won't win the Aquamarine necklace. She couldn't make 56% in Seeding 2 and that at that time she and Mikoto were the only top contenders in the pool. This one will be much more difficult. She'll almost definitely win a necklace somewhere along the line though.
ImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImage
User avatar
HeartClover
Space cowboy
Space cowboy
Posts: 2997
Joined: Fri Apr 22, 2011 10:57 pm
Worships: Audrey Hepburn
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: adventure
Location: the internet

Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by HeartClover » Wed May 11, 2011 5:00 am

actually, can someone calculate tenshi's total score if she wins the necklace round? would it be enough to beat mikoto? i'd do it but i've sworn off math outside of math class.

but then again, the results come in tomorrow so it would be kind of pointless to calculate now...
Image
Thanks to my lovely Emjayfor the sig~
User avatar
loudmouth
Intelligent device
Intelligent device
Posts: 1369
Joined: Mon Jul 05, 2010 2:06 am
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: To go to heaven

Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by loudmouth » Wed May 11, 2011 5:09 am

Kanade needs to have 56.53% of Mikoto's and her combined votes to win the necklace. She had about 54% when they met in seeding 2.
ImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImage
User avatar
HeartClover
Space cowboy
Space cowboy
Posts: 2997
Joined: Fri Apr 22, 2011 10:57 pm
Worships: Audrey Hepburn
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: adventure
Location: the internet

Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by HeartClover » Wed May 11, 2011 5:13 am

dammit. once again i blame the person in charage of the schedule for pairing her up with low-tier contestants.
Image
Thanks to my lovely Emjayfor the sig~
User avatar
Team Rocket Elite
Moon princess
Moon princess
Posts: 3211
Joined: Wed Feb 18, 2009 2:43 am
Badges:
Image
Worships: Bernkastel
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: dried plums to go with the tea.

Re: Is Kanade a lock for Aquamarine?

Post by Team Rocket Elite » Wed May 11, 2011 5:32 am

While things might not look good for Kanade right now, if she does manage to pull off the upset it'll make the victory that much more awesome. Rock bottom SDO. Another character from the same series in the poll. Top opposition has a 30% edge on you. With everything against her and almost no hope of victory, Kanade fights to the end. After the smoke clears, Kanade calmly walks off the battlefield wearing the Aquamarine necklace. That will be the moment to look forward to. At least, that's what I'm hoping for.

Even if Kanade doesn't pull it off, it doesn't mean too much. You can only win one necklace a year and I can't see Tenshi not winning one this year. Unless you're picky about the color and absolutely want Kanade to get the Aquamarine necklace, Kanade can just pick up the Topaz necklace or if that doesn't work out the Amethyst necklace.
A miracle that you believe in when you know it won't happen......... is hope.
Locked