RESULTS: 2009 Aquamarine 2

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RESULTS: 2009 Aquamarine 2

Post by Chocola » Thu Mar 19, 2009 4:59 pm

Post your discussions about results here. This post will be updated with graphics when they become available. Results are released 12 hours after the end of the match, which is at 0000 GMT on 20 March (or 5 PM PDT, 8 PM EDT on 19 March).

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72.66% - #04 Hiiragi Kagami (LS) > #44 Kasuga "Ōsaka" Ayumu (AD)
72.28% - #10 Shana (SnS) > #43 Nagi (KNG)
67.86% - #15 Fujibayashi Kyō (CL) > #47 Vita (MSLN)
---
65.28% - #14 Katsura Hinagiku (HnG) > #33 Katagiri Yūhi (AISS)
65.20% - #11 Nagato Yuki (SHnY) > #38 Alice Carroll (ARIA)
64.66% - #34 Asahina Mikuru (SHnY) > #63 Sawatari Makoto (KN)
63.12% - #31 Furude Rika (HNKN) > #21 Ryōgi Shiki (KnK)
63.10% - #01 Fate Testarossa (MSLN) > #48 Kōzuki Kallen (CG)
63.05% - #09 Ryūgū Rena (HNKN) > #42 Misaka Shiori (KN)
62.91% - #61 Louise Vallière (ZnT) > #64 Chiba Kirino (BB)
62.23% - #25 Aisaka Taiga (TD) > #57 Konjiki no Yami (TLR)
61.84% - #06 Sakagami Tomoyo (CL) > #23 Misaka Mikoto (TAMI)
61.59% - #55 Furude Hanyū (HNKN) > #51 Kurata Sayuri (KN)
61.50% - #20 Suigintou (RM) > #18 Yagami Hayate (MSLN)
60.90% - #12 Sanzen'in Nagi (HnG) > #35 Chii (CH)
60.90% - #07 Suzumiya Haruhi (SHnY) > #54 Kawasumi Mai (KN)
60.63% - #02 Furukawa Nagisa (CL) > #58 Sunohara Mei (CL)
60.31% - #40 Tōsaka Rin (FSN) > #37 Kirisame Marisa (TMK)
60.08% - #13 C.C. (CG) > #27 Shinku (RM)
59.73% - #05 Hiiragi Tsukasa (LS) > #24 Anya Alstreim (CG)
59.33% - #08 Izumi Konata (LS) > #22 Kawashima Ami (TD)
58.23% - #45 Tsukimiya Ayu (KN) > #62 Patchouli Knowledge (TMK)
58.20% - #29 Suiseiseki (RM) > #41 Kawazoe Tamaki (BB)
57.93% - #39 Holo (OtK) > #32 Index Prohibitorum (TAMI)
57.59% - #26 Saber (FSN) > #36 Kushieda Minori (TD)
56.26% - #16 Takamachi Nanoha (MSLN) > #28 Kamio Misuzu (AIR)
---
54.61% - #52 Minase Nayuki (KN) > #53 Hinamori Amu (SC)
53.60% - #49 Remilia Scarlet (TMK) > #56 Evangeline McDowell (NG)
53.58% - #03 Ichinose Kotomi (CL) > #30 Hakurei Reimu (TMK)
53.46% - #50 Ibuki Fūko (CL) > #59 Maria (HnG)
51.33% - #46 Mizunashi Akari (ARIA) > #60 Shameimaru Aya (TMK)
50.72% - #19 Kinomoto Sakura (CCS) > #17 Illyasviel von Einzbern (FSN)
Decisive Matches (3)
ARENA 08 - #04 Hiiragi Kagami (LS) > #44 Kasuga "Ōsaka" Ayumu (AD), 72.66%
ARENA 20 - #10 Shana (SnS) > #43 Nagi (KNG), 72.28%
ARENA 16 - #15 Fujibayashi Kyō (CL) > #47 Vita (MSLN), 67.86%

Close Matches (6)
ARENA 26 - #52 Minase Nayuki (KN) > #53 Hinamori Amu (SC), 54.61%
ARENA 03 - #49 Remilia Scarlet (TMK) > #56 Evangeline McDowell (NG), 53.60%
ARENA 01 - #03 Ichinose Kotomi (CL) > #30 Hakurei Reimu (TMK), 53.58%
ARENA 31 - #50 Ibuki Fūko (CL) > #59 Maria (HnG), 53.46%
ARENA 23 - #46 Mizunashi Akari (ARIA) > #60 Shameimaru Aya (TMK), 51.33%
ARENA 22 - #19 Kinomoto Sakura (CCS) > #17 Illyasviel von Einzbern (FSN), 50.72%

Upsets (6)
ARENA 24 - #31 Furude Rika (HNKN) > #21 Ryōgi Shiki (KnK), 63.12%
ARENA 18 - #55 Furude Hanyū (HNKN) > #51 Kurata Sayuri (KN), 61.59%
ARENA 09 - #20 Suigintou (RM) > #18 Yagami Hayate (MSLN), 61.50%
ARENA 14 - #40 Tōsaka Rin (FSN) > #37 Kirisame Marisa (TMK), 60.31%
ARENA 06 - #39 Holo (OtK) > #32 Index Prohibitorum (TAMI), 57.93%
ARENA 22 - #19 Kinomoto Sakura (CCS) > #17 Illyasviel von Einzbern (FSN), 50.72%

Notable Events
-Tōhō characters went 1-4 this round for the second time, with only Remilia Scarlet (TMK) narrowly winning.
-Aisaka Taiga (TD) is the only preliminary character to have a (2-0) record.
-Holo (OtK) is the only loser from Aquamarine 1 to defeat a winner from Aquamarine 1.
-Hiiragi Kagami (LS) for the second time received the most votes.
-All Clannad characters won against non-Clannad characters.
-The total valid votes for Aquamarine 3 is 2171.

Match Statistics
-The most decisive match is Hiiragi Kagami (LS) > Kasuga "Ōsaka" Ayumu (AD), [72.66%].
-The closest match is Kinomoto Sakura (CCS) > Illyasviel von Einzbern (FSN), [50.72%].
-The winner with the highest votes is Hiiragi Kagami (LS) with [1337] votes.
-The winner with the least votes is Mizunashi Akari (ARIA) with [735] votes.
-The loser with the highest votes is Hakurei Reimu (TMK) with [853] votes.
-The loser with the lowest votes is Nagi (KNG) with [499] votes.
-The contestant who increased most in rankings, [+27], is Furude Rika (HNKN).
-The contestant who decreased most in rankings, [-27], is Kirisame Marisa (TMK).

Aquamarine Statistics
-The most decisive match is Fate Testarossa (MSLN) > Chiba Kirino (BB), [74.60%], Aquamarine 1.
-The closest match is Kinomoto Sakura (CCS) > Illyasviel von Einzbern (FSN), [50.72%], Aquamarine 2.
-The match with the most votes is Shana (SnS) > Furude Hanyū (HNKN), [2038], Aquamarine 1.
-The match with the least votes is Mizunashi Akari (ARIA) > Shameimaru Aya (TMK), [1432], Aquamarine 2.
-The contestant with the most votes per match is Hiiragi Kagami (LS), [1349], Aquamarine 1.
-The contestant with the least votes per match is Chiba Kirino (BB), [428], Aquamarine 1.
-The contestant with the best rating performance, [93.75], is Hiiragi Kagami (LS).
-The contestants with the worst rating performance, [3.13], are Chiba Kirino (BB) [Streak: 2] and Sawatari Makoto (KN).
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 2

Post by kevo » Thu Mar 19, 2009 6:18 pm

*excited*
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 2

Post by Fate » Thu Mar 19, 2009 9:29 pm

I'm anxious to see the votes total in this round as well.
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 2

Post by maikun » Thu Mar 19, 2009 11:32 pm

*dokidokI*
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 2

Post by ithekro » Fri Mar 20, 2009 12:00 am

One more hour.
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 2

Post by maikun » Fri Mar 20, 2009 12:36 am

20 more minutes :shock: :!: o.o
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 2

Post by kevo » Fri Mar 20, 2009 12:44 am

15 minutes
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 2

Post by maikun » Fri Mar 20, 2009 1:00 am

Yes!!!!
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 2

Post by Eater-of-All » Fri Mar 20, 2009 1:05 am

Kagami - 1337....

Yay for Akari!
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 2

Post by Fate » Fri Mar 20, 2009 1:06 am

Ya, Kagami's was lol. Fate won = :)
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 2

Post by maikun » Fri Mar 20, 2009 1:10 am

lol i expected that
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 2

Post by Demi. » Fri Mar 20, 2009 1:10 am

Looks like It's time for me to put my gears into KagamixShana anti-vote mode, lol.
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 2

Post by Cecaniah » Fri Mar 20, 2009 1:12 am

Very satisfied. Especially with every single one of my predictions being right.
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 2

Post by Corni » Fri Mar 20, 2009 1:16 am

To think Sakura this powerful... Defeat Ilya and Akari...
and Akari manage to get her first win...

Look like only Taiga is strong newcomer this year...
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 2

Post by maikun » Fri Mar 20, 2009 1:19 am

I noticed that Sakura still has fans.. Too bad Mei-chan lost =(
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 2

Post by Chocola » Fri Mar 20, 2009 1:32 am

maikun wrote:I noticed that Sakura still has fans.. Too bad Mei-chan lost =(
Yay, Sakura fans. :love:
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 2

Post by maikun » Fri Mar 20, 2009 1:36 am

KholdStare88 wrote:
maikun wrote:I noticed that Sakura still has fans.. Too bad Mei-chan lost =(
Yay, Sakura fans. :love:
lol i didnt noticed your #1 girl was Sakura anyway i voted for her too X)
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 2

Post by Team Rocket Elite » Fri Mar 20, 2009 1:45 am

Close but not quite perfect. I made one mistake this time around:

Predicted: Shameimaru Aya (TMK) [50.29%] vs Mizunashi Akari (ARIA) [49.71%]
Actual: Shameimaru Aya (TMK) [48.67%] vs Mizunashi Akari (ARIA) [51.33%]

That was the one match I was really worried about. I was tempted to change my prediction but stuck with my original plan in the end. It was a close match that could have gone either way so I'm not too upset about missing it.


On average, my prediction were within 4.19 percentage points of the actual result. That's up from 5.11 percentage points in Round 1. My three worst predictions were:

Predicted: Kōzuki Kallen (CG) [25.52%] vs Fate Testarossa (MSLN) [74.48%]
Actual: Kōzuki Kallen (CG) [36.9%] vs Fate Testarossa (MSLN) [63.1%]
Difference: 11.38

Predicted: Furukawa Nagisa (CL) [72.57%] vs Sunohara Mei (CL) [27.43%]
Actual: Furukawa Nagisa (CL) [60.63%] vs Sunohara Mei (CL) [39.38%]
Difference: 11.95

Predicted: Ichinose Kotomi (CL) [64.78%] vs Hakurei Reimu (TMK) [35.22%]
Actual: Ichinose Kotomi (CL) [53.58%] vs Hakurei Reimu (TMK) [46.42%]
Difference: 11.21

Mei really did stand up the SFF from Nagisa. Before SFF adjustment, my stats called for a Nagisa win with 59.73%. A difference of 0.9 percentage points from the actual result. I should have just left things alone. I'm shocked at Kallen's performance. She's never done anything that would suggest doing anywhere near this well against Fate. Some people have suggested that Kallen would go 0-63. I thought it was pretty likely as well. However, with this performance it's safe to say that's not happening. Reimu went from scraping by Chii to threatening Kotomi. For those who thought the Touhou threat was over, Reimu just put up a top 16 performance. It's probably a one time deal but it'll be interesting to see if Reimu can keep it up.


My best predictions:

Predicted: Anya Alstreim (CG) [39.87%] vs Hiiragi Tsukasa (LS) [60.13%]
Actual: Anya Alstreim (CG) [40.27%] vs Hiiragi Tsukasa (LS) [59.73%]
Difference: 0.40

Predicted: Chii (CH) [38.68%] vs Sanzen'in Nagi (HnG) [61.32%]
Actual: Chii (CH) [39.1%] vs Sanzen'in Nagi (HnG) [60.9%]
Difference: 0.42

Predicted: Ryūgū Rena (HNKN) [64.04%] vs Misaka Shiori (KN) [35.96%]
Actual: Ryūgū Rena (HNKN) [63.05%] vs Misaka Shiori (KN) [36.95%]
Difference: 0.99

Predicted: Maria (HnG) [45.73%] vs Ibuki Fūko (CL) [54.27%]
Actual: Maria (HnG) [46.54%] vs Ibuki Fūko (CL) [53.46%]
Difference: 0.81

I doubled the number of within 1% predictions compared to Round 1. Hopefully I'll do even better next round.


Hiiragi Kagami (LS) [72.66%] vs Kasuga "Ōsaka" Ayumu (AD) [27.34%]
Nagi (KNG) [27.72%] vs Shana (SnS) [72.28%]

I had predicted Nagisa and Fate to take the largest blowouts but both of them dropped to ball pretty badly. Kagami and Shana took the chance exceed my expectations and smash their opponents.
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 2

Post by Motoyama » Fri Mar 20, 2009 1:48 am

Patch got killed.

@least Shana&Fate won =/
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 2

Post by Fate » Fri Mar 20, 2009 1:54 am

I really should continue Cardcaptor Sakura. <_<
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