RESULTS: 2009 Aquamarine 3

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RESULTS: 2009 Aquamarine 3

Post by Chocola » Sat Mar 21, 2009 4:56 pm

Post your discussions about results here. This post will be updated with graphics when they become available. Results are released 12 hours after the end of the match, which is at 0000 GMT on 22 March (or 5 PM PDT, 8 PM EDT on 21 March).

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By PercentageShow
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Cumulative StatisticsShow
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Text ResultsShow
68.25% - #13 Aisaka Taiga (TD) > #35 Kawashima Ami (TD)
67.66% - #14 Saber (FSN) > #47 Kawazoe Tamaki (BB)
63.71% - #25 Illyasviel von Einzbern (FSN) > #54 Shameimaru Aya (TMK)
61.49% - #31 Furude Hanyū (HNKN) > #49 Katagiri Yūhi (AISS)
---
58.68% - #38 Shinku (RM) > #51 Hinamori Amu (SC)
58.60% - #34 Ibuki Fūko (CL) > #39 Misaka Mikoto (TAMI)
58.52% - #55 Maria (HnG) > #58 Vita (MSLN)
58.44% - #15 Fate Testarossa (MSLN) > #05 Kinomoto Sakura (CCS)
58.00% - #08 Sakagami Tomoyo (CL) > #19 Ryūgū Rena (HNKN)
57.27% - #45 Kawasumi Mai (KN) > #53 Alice Carroll (ARIA)
56.53% - #18 Suzumiya Haruhi (SHnY) > #16 Furukawa Nagisa (CL)
56.51% - #46 Konjiki no Yami (TLR) > #64 Kirisame Marisa (TMK)
55.88% - #37 Anya Alstreim (CG) > #33 Mizunashi Akari (ARIA)
55.67% - #41 Louise Vallière (ZnT) > #56 Kōzuki Kallen (CG)
55.34% - #29 Yagami Hayate (MSLN) > #60 Patchouli Knowledge (TMK)
54.62% - #24 Asahina Mikuru (SHnY) > #44 Sunohara Mei (CL)
54.57% - #11 Ichinose Kotomi (CL) > #21 Sanzen'in Nagi (HnG)
54.57% - #48 Chii (CH) > #40 Minase Nayuki (KN)
54.48% - #07 Shana (SnS) > #12 Izumi Konata (LS)
54.07% - #09 Hiiragi Tsukasa (LS) > #22 Suiseiseki (RM)
53.90% - #10 Fujibayashi Kyō (CL) > #02 Suigintou (RM)
53.65% - #30 Kamio Misuzu (AIR) > #52 Evangeline McDowell (NG)
53.52% - #06 Hiiragi Kagami (LS) > #04 Furude Rika (HNKN)
53.52% - #43 Kushieda Minori (TD) > #42 Index Prohibitorum (TAMI)
52.75% - #62 Chiba Kirino (BB) > #61 Kasuga "Ōsaka" Ayumu (AD)
52.05% - #20 Katsura Hinagiku (HnG) > #23 Holo (OtK)
52.05% - #17 Nagato Yuki (SHnY) > #01 C.C. (CG)
---
51.38% - #32 Remilia Scarlet (TMK) > #50 Misaka Shiori (KN)
51.26% - #28 Hakurei Reimu (TMK) > #27 Tsukimiya Ayu (KN)
50.92% - #59 Nagi (KNG) > #57 Kurata Sayuri (KN)
50.19% - #36 Ryōgi Shiki (KnK) > #63 Sawatari Makoto (KN)
50.05% - #03 Takamachi Nanoha (MSLN) > #26 Tōsaka Rin (FSN)
Decisive Matches (4)
ARENA 25 - #13 Aisaka Taiga (TD) > #35 Kawashima Ami (TD), 68.25%
ARENA 14 - #14 Saber (FSN) > #47 Kawazoe Tamaki (BB), 67.66%
ARENA 31 - #25 Illyasviel von Einzbern (FSN) > #54 Shameimaru Aya (TMK), 63.71%
ARENA 32 - #31 Furude Hanyū (HNKN) > #49 Katagiri Yūhi (AISS), 61.49%

Close Matches (5)
ARENA 10 - #32 Remilia Scarlet (TMK) > #50 Misaka Shiori (KN), 51.38%
ARENA 02 - #28 Hakurei Reimu (TMK) > #27 Tsukimiya Ayu (KN), 51.26%
ARENA 26 - #59 Nagi (KNG) > #57 Kurata Sayuri (KN), 50.92%
ARENA 16 - #36 Ryōgi Shiki (KnK) > #63 Sawatari Makoto (KN), 50.19%
ARENA 28 - #03 Takamachi Nanoha (MSLN) > #26 Tōsaka Rin (FSN), 50.05%

Upsets (11)
ARENA 06 - #15 Fate Testarossa (MSLN) > #05 Kinomoto Sakura (CCS), 58.44%
ARENA 30 - #18 Suzumiya Haruhi (SHnY) > #16 Furukawa Nagisa (CL), 56.53%
ARENA 07 - #37 Anya Alstreim (CG) > #33 Mizunashi Akari (ARIA), 55.88%
ARENA 27 - #48 Chii (CH) > #40 Minase Nayuki (KN), 54.57%
ARENA 23 - #10 Fujibayashi Kyō (CL) > #02 Suigintou (RM), 53.90%
ARENA 11 - #06 Hiiragi Kagami (LS) > #04 Furude Rika (HNKN), 53.52%
ARENA 18 - #43 Kushieda Minori (TD) > #42 Index Prohibitorum (TAMI), 53.52%
ARENA 03 - #62 Chiba Kirino (BB) > #61 Kasuga "Ōsaka" Ayumu (AD), 52.75%
ARENA 22 - #17 Nagato Yuki (SHnY) > #01 C.C. (CG), 52.05%
ARENA 02 - #28 Hakurei Reimu (TMK) > #27 Tsukimiya Ayu (KN), 51.26%
ARENA 26 - #59 Nagi (KNG) > #57 Kurata Sayuri (KN), 50.92%

Notable Events
-Aisaka Taiga (TD) is the only preliminary character to have an undefeated record.
-Kanon characters went 1-5 this round, with Kawasumi Mai (KN) highest ranked at #40.
-Matches are close, with 66.8% of all arenas are within 4.48% of the mean, which is 55.88%.
-Fourteen of the current Top 16 is in ISML 2008's final Top 16.
-The total valid votes for Aquamarine 3 is 2399.

Match Statistics
-The most decisive match is Aisaka Taiga (TD) > Kawashima Ami (TD), [68.25%].
-The closest match is Takamachi Nanoha (MSLN) > Tōsaka Rin (FSN), [50.05%].
-The winner with the most votes is Saber (FSN) with [1222] votes.
-The winner with the least votes is Ryōgi Shiki (KnK) with [811] votes.
-The loser with the most votes is C.C. (CG) with [1006] votes.
-The loser with the least votes is Kawashima Ami (TD) with [543] votes.
-The contestant who increased most in rankings, [+18], is Chiba Kirino (BB).
-The contestant who decreased most in rankings, [-18], is Tsukimiya Ayu (KN).

Aquamarine Statistics
-The most decisive match is Fate Testarossa (MSLN) > Chiba Kirino (BB), [74.60%], Aquamarine 1.
-The closest match is Takamachi Nanoha (MSLN) > Tōsaka Rin (FSN), [50.05%], Aquamarine 3.
-The match with the most votes is Nagato Yuki (SHnY) > C.C. (CG), [2098], Aquamarine 3.
-The match with the least votes is Mizunashi Akari (ARIA) > Shameimaru Aya (TMK), [1432], Aquamarine 2.
-The contestant with the most votes per match is Hiiragi Kagami (LS), [1349], Aquamarine 1.
-The contestant with the least votes per match is Chiba Kirino (BB), [428], Aquamarine 1.
-The contestant with the best rating performance , [94.79], is Hiiragi Kagami (LS) [Streak: 2].
-The contestant with the worst rating performance, [4.17], is Sawatari Makoto (KN) [Streak: 2].
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 3

Post by Fate » Sat Mar 21, 2009 5:48 pm

I can't wait. :v
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 3

Post by Corni » Sat Mar 21, 2009 5:57 pm

i cant wait too...
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 3

Post by Meimi132 » Sat Mar 21, 2009 7:29 pm

Thirded.

Gah.. I can't wait to see if Nagisa beat Haruhi..... Auuuu....
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 3

Post by Chocola » Sat Mar 21, 2009 7:51 pm

Oh, here's something. The cut-off line for Close Matches in Aquamarine 3 is 51.40%.
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 3

Post by Cecaniah » Sat Mar 21, 2009 8:23 pm

Was there a lot of close matches?
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 3

Post by imbehindyou » Sat Mar 21, 2009 8:46 pm

That percentage number scares me since there are usually 6-7 close matches posted..and cut-off line is 51.40%? wow..
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 3

Post by -synchronizer- » Sat Mar 21, 2009 8:57 pm

I'll laugh if the reason he's telling us the cut off point is because he can't tell us the percentage of the closest match as it was actually a tie.
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 3

Post by Demi. » Sat Mar 21, 2009 9:02 pm

mM, Results~
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 3

Post by Meimi132 » Sat Mar 21, 2009 9:10 pm

-synchronizer- wrote:I'll laugh if the reason he's telling us the cut off point is because he can't tell us the percentage of the closest match as it was actually a tie.
Oooooo kowaii......
I wonder how close Nagisa vs Haruhi will be... since they're both such strong characters....

Oh, and WOOP T-minus 4 hours!
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 3

Post by chaosprophet » Sat Mar 21, 2009 9:13 pm

Still have to wait almost 4 hours for the results... and KholdStare comment just made these four hours longer!
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 3

Post by Chocola » Sat Mar 21, 2009 9:41 pm

chaosprophet wrote:Still have to wait almost 4 hours for the results... and KholdStare comment just made these four hours longer!
Just as planned. While you wait, why don't someone try to figure out my formula for the cut-off line of close/decisive? :D

P.S.: Also, Aquamarine 3 has the highest total votes for an arena and mean total votes. ISML is becoming more popular...kinda!
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 3

Post by Demi. » Sat Mar 21, 2009 9:52 pm

Either that, or it was 'cause everyones favorites where against another favorite. Mass campaigning ensued.

+I can only imagine the fanboy rage that happened in the Kona vs. Shana match, especially with MD lurking in the shadows. C.C. vs. Yuki too, both have China rage written all over them. When ISMl reaches 5K+ if it ever does, that's when It'll start to fail more so than ever before.
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 3

Post by Chocola » Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:01 pm

Demi. wrote:When ISMl reaches 5K+ if it ever does...
That's when we will drop out of school.
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 3

Post by ithekro » Sat Mar 21, 2009 11:28 pm

Basic question: Does it beat the final match last year between Nagato and Fate in terms of vote numbers (somewhere close to 2,200 I think).
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 3

Post by Team Rocket Elite » Sat Mar 21, 2009 11:46 pm

KholdStare88 wrote:While you wait, why don't someone try to figure out my formula for the cut-off line of close/decisive? :D
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Greater than 1 Standard Deviation off the average of all win percentages for that round. I think. There might be another modifier since Tomoyo vs Maria was not listed as a Decisive Matches despite being just over 1 SD above the average. It might be due to rounding errors since that match is almost right on the borderline.
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 3

Post by chaosprophet » Sat Mar 21, 2009 11:54 pm

KholdStare88 wrote:P.S.: Also, Aquamarine 3 has the highest total votes for an arena and mean total votes. ISML is becoming more popular...kinda!
It's good you decided to only show the results 12 hours later.
KholdStare88 wrote:Just as planned. While you wait, why don't someone try to figure out my formula for the cut-off line of close/decisive? :D
Well I will give it a try... (I'm probably completely wrong...)

A decisive match would be a match where the W% of that match is higher than A and a close match would be a match where the W% of that match is lower than B where:

Sd = (Sum of all W% of the rounds)/32;
A = Sd + C; B = Sd - C;

And I wasn't able to determine C but it isn't the same to all rounds (note that it's the same used in A and B)...

XD :P

Edit: so Team Rocket Elite had a similar idea and beat me to it (and I have not ideia what one standard deviation is...)
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 3

Post by Meimi132 » Sun Mar 22, 2009 12:50 am

KholdStare88 wrote:
chaosprophet wrote:Still have to wait almost 4 hours for the results... and KholdStare comment just made these four hours longer!
Just as planned. While you wait, why don't someone try to figure out my formula for the cut-off line of close/decisive? :D

P.S.: Also, Aquamarine 3 has the highest total votes for an arena and mean total votes. ISML is becoming more popular...kinda!
Woop!! More votes! More chances for Fuuko! lol

I just hope that posting links for each Saimoe round on Dannychoo.com is helping, not hurting lol.

EDIT: Woop! 10 minutes!!!

(Is it ok that I post the results on the DannyChoo user news btw?)
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 3

Post by Chocola » Sun Mar 22, 2009 12:57 am

Team Rocket Elite wrote:
KholdStare88 wrote:While you wait, why don't someone try to figure out my formula for the cut-off line of close/decisive? :D
Potential answerShow
Greater than 1 Standard Deviation off the average of all win percentages for that round. I think. There might be another modifier since Tomoyo vs Maria was not listed as a Decisive Matches despite being just over 1 SD above the average. It might be due to rounding errors since that match is almost right on the borderline.
Yup, that's right. The decisive cut-off for Aquamarine 1 was 66.37% and Tomoyo vs. Maria was 66.28%. You get a cookie.
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 3

Post by Eater-of-All » Sun Mar 22, 2009 1:01 am

- Pretty close match between Horo and Hinagiku, hm.
- Wow, Anya > Akari? Inconceivable.
- Kagami weakened this time, and Saber somehow got the most votes
- Nanoha wins Rin by 2 points :shock:
Last edited by Eater-of-All on Sun Mar 22, 2009 1:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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