RESULTS: 2009 Aquamarine 5

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RESULTS: 2009 Aquamarine 5

Post by Chocola » Thu Mar 26, 2009 4:41 pm

Post your discussions about results here. This post will be updated with graphics when they become available. Results are released 12 hours after the end of the match, which is at 0000 GMT on 27 March (or 5 PM PDT, 8 PM EDT on 26 March). For more time translations, please refer to this thread.

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By PercentageShow
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Cumulative StatisticsShow
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Text ResultsShow
71.37% - #11 Katsura Hinagiku (HnG) > #53 Kawazoe Tamaki (BB)
68.10% - #01 Shana (SnS) > #63 Kirisame Marisa (TMK)
67.91% - #10 Nagato Yuki (SHnY) > #27 Chii (CH)
66.90% - #13 Furude Rika (HNKN) > #48 Kōzuki Kallen (CG)
---
66.24% - #45 Maria (HnG) > #58 Patchouli Knowledge (TMK)
65.22% - #04 Ichinose Kotomi (CL) > #38 Shinku (RM)
64.99% - #35 Ryūgū Rena (HNKN) > #62 Vita (MSLN)
64.77% - #18 C.C. (CG) > #55 Alice Carroll (ARIA)
64.75% - #12 Kinomoto Sakura (CCS) > #64 Kasuga "Ōsaka" Ayumu (AD)
64.56% - #44 Kawasumi Mai (KN) > #59 Hinamori Amu (SC)
64.21% - #34 Tōsaka Rin (FSN) > #60 Misaka Shiori (KN)
64.20% - #20 Izumi Konata (LS) > #43 Katagiri Yūhi (AISS)
63.94% - #03 Sakagami Tomoyo (CL) > #26 Kamio Misuzu (AIR)
63.94% - #08 Suzumiya Haruhi (SHnY) > #29 Asahina Mikuru (SHnY)
63.82% - #15 Aisaka Taiga (TD) > #54 Kurata Sayuri (KN)
63.80% - #07 Fate Testarossa (MSLN) > #30 Anya Alstreim (CG)
63.21% - #05 Fujibayashi Kyō (CL) > #17 Hakurei Reimu (TMK)
62.90% - #21 Furukawa Nagisa (CL) > #39 Ryōgi Shiki (KnK)
62.85% - #40 Holo (OtK) > #52 Nagi (KNG)
61.92% - #09 Saber (FSN) > #51 Mizunashi Akari (ARIA)
61.33% - #14 Hiiragi Tsukasa (LS) > #32 Index Prohibitorum (TAMI)
60.77% - #06 Hiiragi Kagami (LS) > #42 Sunohara Mei (CL)
60.18% - #16 Ibuki Fūko (CL) > #33 Remilia Scarlet (TMK)
59.30% - #28 Louise Vallière (ZnT) > #56 Shameimaru Aya (TMK)
59.18% - #22 Sanzen'in Nagi (HnG) > #37 Yagami Hayate (MSLN)
58.92% - #47 Tsukimiya Ayu (KN) > #49 Minase Nayuki (KN)
58.12% - #46 Konjiki no Yami (TLR) > #61 Evangeline McDowell (NG)
---
54.61% - #24 Furude Hanyū (HNKN) > #41 Kushieda Minori (TD)
54.44% - #19 Suigintou (RM) > #36 Misaka Mikoto (TAMI)
53.07% - #02 Takamachi Nanoha (MSLN) > #31 Kawashima Ami (TD)
52.17% - #23 Illyasviel von Einzbern (FSN) > #25 Suiseiseki (RM)
51.63% - #57 Sawatari Makoto (KN) > #50 Chiba Kirino (BB)
Decisive Matches (4)
ARENA 28 - #11 Katsura Hinagiku (HnG) > #53 Kawazoe Tamaki (BB), 71.37%
ARENA 18 - #01 Shana (SnS) > #63 Kirisame Marisa (TMK), 68.10%
ARENA 01 - #10 Nagato Yuki (SHnY) > #27 Chii (CH), 67.91%
ARENA 21 - #13 Furude Rika (HNKN) > #48 Kōzuki Kallen (CG), 66.90%

Close Matches (5)
ARENA 15 - #24 Furude Hanyū (HNKN) > #41 Kushieda Minori (TD), 54.61%
ARENA 07 - #19 Suigintou (RM) > #36 Misaka Mikoto (TAMI), 54.44%
ARENA 27 - #02 Takamachi Nanoha (MSLN) > #31 Kawashima Ami (TD), 53.07%
ARENA 24 - #23 Illyasviel von Einzbern (FSN) > #25 Suiseiseki (RM), 52.17%
ARENA 30 - #57 Sawatari Makoto (KN) > #50 Chiba Kirino (BB), 51.63%

Upsets (1)
ARENA 30 - #57 Sawatari Makoto (KN) > #50 Chiba Kirino (BB), 51.63%

Notable Events
-Tōhō characters all lost this round.
-There was only one upset based on Aquamarine 4 rankings.
-The staff wants to note that nothing remarkable happened.
-The total valid votes for Aquamarine 4 is 2179.

Match Statistics
-The most decisive match is Katsura Hinagiku (HnG) > Kawazoe Tamaki (BB), [71.37%].
-The closest match is Sawatari Makoto (KN) > Chiba Kirino (BB), [51.63%].
-The winner with the highest votes is Shana (SnS) with [1279] votes.
-The winner with the least votes is Sawatari Makoto (KN) with [729] votes.
-The loser with the highest votes is Kawashima Ami (TD) with [818] votes.
-The loser with the lowest votes is Kawazoe Tamaki (BB) with [446] votes.
-The contestant who increased most in rankings, [+12], is Tsukimiya Ayu (KN).
-The contestant who decreased most in rankings, [-7], is Hakurei Reimu (TMK).

Aquamarine Statistics
-The most decisive match is Fate Testarossa (MSLN) > Chiba Kirino (BB), [74.60%], Aquamarine 1.
-The closest match is Takamachi Nanoha (MSLN) > Tōsaka Rin (FSN), [50.05%], Aquamarine 3.
-The match with the most votes is Nagato Yuki (SHnY) > Hinamori Amu (SC), [2302], Aquamarine 4.
-The match with the least votes is Sawatari Makoto (KN) > Chiba Kirino (BB), [1412], Aquamarine 5.
-The contestant with the most votes per match is Fujibayashi Kyō (CL), [1523], Aquamarine 4.
-The contestant with the least votes per match is Chiba Kirino (BB), [428], Aquamarine 1.
-The contestant with the best rating performance , [95.31], is Shana (SnS) [Streak: 2].
-The contestant with the worst rating performance, [8.44], is Patchouli Knowledge (TMK).
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 5

Post by Fate » Thu Mar 26, 2009 6:13 pm

I can't wait for this.
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 5

Post by maikun » Thu Mar 26, 2009 6:55 pm

Fate wrote:I can't wait for this.
same... 2 am here @_@ @_@
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 5

Post by Meimi132 » Thu Mar 26, 2009 8:20 pm

Woop! Can't wait till midnight! 5 hours!
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 5

Post by maglor » Thu Mar 26, 2009 8:42 pm

I hope there were some big upsets.
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 5

Post by maikun » Thu Mar 26, 2009 11:13 pm

i hope not T_T.. been up all nyt cause of da capo If 2 =_=
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 5

Post by kevo » Thu Mar 26, 2009 11:21 pm

*doki doki*
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 5

Post by minhtam1638 » Fri Mar 27, 2009 12:05 am

you know, i'm not that optimistic about these results...
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 5

Post by Demi. » Fri Mar 27, 2009 12:21 am

Knowing you, your optimism lies in upsets.
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 5

Post by maikun » Fri Mar 27, 2009 12:28 am

*dokidoki*
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 5

Post by maikun » Fri Mar 27, 2009 1:00 am

Huray Tomoyo! :biggrin: :love:
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 5

Post by Chocola » Fri Mar 27, 2009 1:01 am

Hey look, we only have 1 upset this round....
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 5

Post by Fate » Fri Mar 27, 2009 1:02 am

It seems as though the vote totals declined a bit; oh well, Fate winning = all is well in the world.
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 5

Post by -synchronizer- » Fri Mar 27, 2009 1:09 am

Wow, the results were rather boring. The only thing I found interesting was that Illya managed to beat Suiseiseki; nothing else was the least bit unexpected.
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 5

Post by Corni » Fri Mar 27, 2009 1:09 am

Oh well good result... *as expected except Ilya*
Ilya do a great job this time...

And poor Tamaki...
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 5

Post by Chocola » Fri Mar 27, 2009 1:11 am

Hold on. I don't have time to do the whole write-up yet, but I can tell you that total legal votes were more than that of Aquamarine 2.
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 5

Post by Cecaniah » Fri Mar 27, 2009 1:13 am

Expected. Seriously, I predicted every match correctly except for Illya vs Suiseiseki

Poor Tamaki D=
Lol at Kallen's low totals. Did she get hate voted?

Results are fine though.
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 5

Post by Demi. » Fri Mar 27, 2009 1:18 am

Shana with more than 100votes than everyone is annoying. That's all I have to say about this round.

Edit: Wait. Yuki Too. Well, That's annoying also.
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 5

Post by Team Rocket Elite » Fri Mar 27, 2009 1:29 am

So close to perfect. I missed exactly one match:

Predicted: Suiseiseki (RM) [52.72%] vs Illyasviel von Einzbern (FSN) [47.28%]
Actual: Suiseiseki (RM) [47.83%] vs Illyasviel von Einzbern (FSN) [52.17%]
Difference: 5.58

I had a feeling that I was underestimating Illya and that this match would come back to haunt me. I was stubborn and stuck with Suiseiseki and missed my prefect prediction.

Another improvement in the accuracy of my stats. On average I was 2.44 percentage points away from the correct results. Only 4 out of 32 predictions was greater than 5 percentage points off the actual result and none of my predictions were more than 7 points off:

Predicted: Chiba Kirino (BB) [41.51%] vs Sawatari Makoto (KN) [58.49%]
Actual: Chiba Kirino (BB) [48.37%] vs Sawatari Makoto (KN) [51.63%]
Difference: 6.86

Predicted: Kōzuki Kallen (CG) [39.47%] vs Furude Rika (HNKN) [60.53%]
Actual: Kōzuki Kallen (CG) [33.1%] vs Furude Rika (HNKN) [66.9%]
Difference: 6.36

Predicted: Maria (HnG) [60.31%] vs Patchouli Knowledge (TMK) [39.69%]
Actual: Maria (HnG) [66.24%] vs Patchouli Knowledge (TMK) [33.76%]
Difference: 5.93

Predicted: Misaka Mikoto (TAMI) [39.98%] vs Suigintou (RM) [60.02%]
Actual: Misaka Mikoto (TAMI) [45.56%] vs Suigintou (RM) [54.44%]
Difference: 5.58

After Aquamarine 4 I adjusted Maria and Suigintou's rankings. Incorrectly it seems as I made a poor prediction regarding both of their matches.


11 of my predictions were within 1 percentage point of the actual result. My best prediction was:

Predicted: Remilia Scarlet (TMK) [39.79%] vs Ibuki Fūko (CL) [60.21%]
Actual: Remilia Scarlet (TMK) [39.82%] vs Ibuki Fūko (CL) [60.18%]
Difference: 0.03

So close to perfect. If Remilia got just 1 vote fewer, it would have been a perfect prediction.
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 5

Post by Fate » Fri Mar 27, 2009 1:31 am

minhtam1638 wrote:you know, i'm not that optimistic about these results...
I think this is the first post I've seen you type in non-perfect grammar.
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