RESULTS: 2009 Aquamarine 6

[Chocola]

Post your discussions about results here. This post will be updated with graphics when they become available. Results are released 12 hours after the end of the match, which is at 0000 GMT on 29 March (or 5 PM PDT, 8 PM EDT on 28 March). For more time translations, please refer to this thread.

By PercentageShow

Cumulative StatisticsShow

Performance RatingsShow

Note that these ratings are not based on wins but pure performance. For example, if a character casually wins a lot against very easy opponents, then her rating might not be very high. If another character loses a few close matches against very tough opponents, then she will still get high ratings. Of course, if a character decisively wins against easy opponents, then she will also get high ratings. The first column is the rank based on performance ratings, and the second column is the official ISML rank. A good way to understand performance is to think that performance ratings are theoretical while results are practical (like in a laboratory experiment).

Text Results for RagingShow

67.19% - #46 Sunohara Mei (CL) > #52 Chiba Kirino (BB)
66.70% - #16 Aisaka Taiga (TD) > #47 Katagiri Yūhi (AISS)
66.68% - #23 Furude Hanyū (HNKN) > #56 Kawazoe Tamaki (BB)
64.47% - #32 Asahina Mikuru (SHnY) > #36 Ryōgi Shiki (KnK)
63.13% - #33 Kawashima Ami (TD) > #63 Evangeline McDowell (NG)
---
60.94% - #04 Fujibayashi Kyō (CL) > #19 Sanzen'in Nagi (HnG)
60.92% - #10 Saber (FSN) > #20 Illyasviel von Einzbern (FSN)
59.83% - #41 Misaka Mikoto (TAMI) > #58 Patchouli Knowledge (TMK)
59.79% - #12 Ibuki Fūko (CL) > #27 Kamio Misuzu (AIR)
58.93% - #45 Kushieda Minori (TD) > #53 Nagi (KNG)
58.87% - #08 Fate Testarossa (MSLN) > #26 Suiseiseki (RM)
58.40% - #02 Sakagami Tomoyo (CL) > #28 Tōsaka Rin (FSN)
56.85% - #11 Katsura Hinagiku (HnG) > #15 Hiiragi Tsukasa (LS)
56.22% - #17 Furude Rika (HNKN) > #14 Kinomoto Sakura (CCS)
55.32% - #25 Louise Vallière (ZnT) > #34 Anya Alstreim (CG)
55.24% - #42 Konjiki no Yami (TLR) > #62 Misaka Shiori (KN)
54.85% - #37 Index Prohibitorum (TAMI) > #50 Mizunashi Akari (ARIA)
54.45% - #57 Shameimaru Aya (TMK) > #64 Kasuga "Ōsaka" Ayumu (AD)
53.34% - #01 Shana (SnS) > #03 Takamachi Nanoha (MSLN)
53.34% - #54 Kurata Sayuri (KN) > #59 Kirisame Marisa (TMK)
53.31% - #38 Kawasumi Mai (KN) > #31 Chii (CH)
53.26% - #40 Maria (HnG) > #24 Hakurei Reimu (TMK)
52.85% - #29 Ryūgū Rena (HNKN) > #13 Suigintou (RM)
52.80% - #07 Suzumiya Haruhi (SHnY) > #22 C.C. (CG)
52.12% - #21 Izumi Konata (LS) > #30 Holo (OtK)
51.47% - #44 Shinku (RM) > #35 Tsukimiya Ayu (KN)
---
51.15% - #51 Minase Nayuki (KN) > #43 Yagami Hayate (MSLN)
51.07% - #05 Ichinose Kotomi (CL) > #09 Nagato Yuki (SHnY)
50.92% - #18 Furukawa Nagisa (CL) > #06 Hiiragi Kagami (LS)
50.74% - #39 Remilia Scarlet (TMK) > #60 Vita (MSLN)
50.74% - #49 Kōzuki Kallen (CG) > #48 Sawatari Makoto (KN)
50.74% - #55 Alice Carroll (ARIA) > #61 Hinamori Amu (SC)

Decisive Matches (5)
ARENA 12 - #46 Sunohara Mei (CL) > #52 Chiba Kirino (BB), 67.19%
ARENA 15 - #16 Aisaka Taiga (TD) > #47 Katagiri Yūhi (AISS), 66.70%
ARENA 30 - #23 Furude Hanyū (HNKN) > #56 Kawazoe Tamaki (BB), 66.68%
ARENA 29 - #32 Asahina Mikuru (SHnY) > #36 Ryōgi Shiki (KnK), 64.47%
ARENA 21 - #33 Kawashima Ami (TD) > #63 Evangeline McDowell (NG), 63.13%

Close Matches (6)
ARENA 25 - #51 Minase Nayuki (KN) > #43 Yagami Hayate (MSLN), 51.15%
ARENA 06 - #05 Ichinose Kotomi (CL) > #09 Nagato Yuki (SHnY), 51.07%
ARENA 04 - #18 Furukawa Nagisa (CL) > #06 Hiiragi Kagami (LS), 50.92%
ARENA 23 - #39 Remilia Scarlet (TMK) > #60 Vita (MSLN), 50.74%
ARENA 10 - #49 Kōzuki Kallen (CG) > #48 Sawatari Makoto (KN), 50.74%
ARENA 02 - #55 Alice Carroll (ARIA) > #61 Hinamori Amu (SC), 50.74%

Upsets (8)
ARENA 18 - #17 Furude Rika (HNKN) > #14 Kinomoto Sakura (CCS), 56.22%
ARENA 13 - #38 Kawasumi Mai (KN) > #31 Chii (CH), 53.31%
ARENA 20 - #40 Maria (HnG) > #24 Hakurei Reimu (TMK), 53.26%
ARENA 09 - #29 Ryūgū Rena (HNKN) > #13 Suigintou (RM), 52.85%
ARENA 27 - #44 Shinku (RM) > #35 Tsukimiya Ayu (KN), 51.47%
ARENA 25 - #51 Minase Nayuki (KN) > #43 Yagami Hayate (MSLN), 51.15%
ARENA 04 - #18 Furukawa Nagisa (CL) > #06 Hiiragi Kagami (LS), 50.92%
ARENA 10 - #49 Kōzuki Kallen (CG) > #48 Sawatari Makoto (KN), 50.74%

Notable Events
-All six Clannad characters won this round.
-Yuki and Kagami are the first Tier 1 (Top 8 of ISML 2008) characters to lose this year.
-Kawashima Ami (TD) is the first character to have both a decisive win and decisive loss.
-Head to Head Matchup (Tiebreaker 3) was applied twice in this round to give Ryūgū Rena (HNKN) and Maria (HnG) a higher rank.
-The total valid votes for Aquamarine 6 is 2832.

Match Statistics
-The most decisive match is Sunohara Mei (CL) > Chiba Kirino (BB), [67.19%].
-The closest match is Alice Carroll (ARIA) > Hinamori Amu (SC), [50.74%].
-The winner with the highest votes is Asahina Mikuru (SHnY) with [1399] votes.
-The winner with the least votes is Alice Carroll (ARIA) with [929] votes.
-The loser with the highest votes is Hiiragi Kagami (LS) with [1230] votes.
-The loser with the lowest votes is Chiba Kirino (BB) with [642] votes.
-The contestant who increased most in rankings, [+14], is Maria (HnG).
-The contestant who decreased most in rankings, [-12], is Anya Alstreim (CG).

Aquamarine Statistics
-The most decisive match is Fate Testarossa (MSLN) > Chiba Kirino (BB), [74.60%], Aquamarine 1.
-The closest match is Takamachi Nanoha (MSLN) > Tōsaka Rin (FSN), [50.05%], Aquamarine 3.
-The match with the most votes is Furukawa Nagisa (CL) > Hiiragi Kagami (LS), [2506], Aquamarine 6.
-The match with the least votes is Sawatari Makoto (KN) > Chiba Kirino (BB), [1412], Aquamarine 5.
-The contestant with the most votes per match is Fujibayashi Kyō (CL), [1523], Aquamarine 4.
-The contestant with the least votes per match is Chiba Kirino (BB), [428], Aquamarine 1.
-The contestant with the best rating performance , [96.09], is Shana (SnS) [Streak: 3].
-The contestant with the worst rating performance, [8.85], is Patchouli Knowledge (TMK) [Streak: 2].

[Meimi132]

Damnations.... 7 hours to go... I always think 5 PM PDT is gonna be 5 PM in the UK for some reason... I forgot its Midnight... doi.

[Demi.]

Here is to hoping there is still some justice in the world and Nanoha wins this. Doubt it, but one can dream, right?

[Meimi132]

Here is to hoping there is still some justice in the world and Nanoha wins this. Doubt it, but one can dream, right?

Oooo against Shana... well I did vote Nanoha. But only cos I don't want a Tsundere to win lol.

EDIT: 2.5 hours to go! Yatta!!!

[Fate]

Woo, can't wait.

[-synchronizer-]

Yes, Alice won! She won't have a 0-63 record.
Also, wtf Clannad. Sure, I voted for Kotomi and Mei, but stop raping everywhere else.

[Meimi132]

Yes, Alice won! She won't have a 0-63 record.
Also, wtf Clannad. Sure, I voted for Kotomi and Mei, but stop raping everywhere else.

Its all the Tomoyo and Kyou fans... Not Fuuko fans...(Yaaaaaaay Fuuko!!) Her biggest win so far, no?

[chaosprophet]

Yuki lost!! Nagi S. , Eva and Kirino were destroyed... at least Fate and Minorin won...

O.O Nagisa defeated Kagami... thus the fall of LS...

[Xellos]

Nagisa beat Kagami...the first time I have felt a bit of despair in a while.

[Eater-of-All]

Nagisa winning over Kagami must be the single most amazing thing I've ever seen.

EDIT: Yuki losing was also surprising.

[Demi.]

ffffffffffffffffffffff-

That about explains my reaction after seeing the results.

On that note, some of the top tiers lost or came close to it, some serious tactical voting was going on here..

[Fate]

Ya, Nagisa beating Kagami was pretty disappointing. At least Fate won.

[Corni]

Yeah... Kagami T_T

[Cecaniah]

I LOVE THESE RESULTS!!!

This made me happy (Except C.C. and Anya losing)

[Chocola]

I'm just happy that Nagisa won and Yuki didn't. Also, results posted on the first post. I'm on time today yay! You can use the text version for raging.

[Permidian]

Yay Kotomi won !
Too bad Nanoha didn't win too tho, and surprised that Nagisa beats Kagami. But i'm really happy that Kotomi won this match, that made my day^^

[chaosprophet]

Well In a way I liked that Yuki and Kagami lost as it makes ISML more unexpected than it was till now... but it's sad that it happened at the cost of Nagato losing...

[Team Rocket Elite]

I missed 5 matches this time:

Predicted: Hiiragi Kagami (LS) [54.1%] vs Furukawa Nagisa (CL) [45.9%]
Actual: Hiiragi Kagami (LS) [49.08%] vs Furukawa Nagisa (CL) [50.92%]
Difference: 5.02

Predicted: Ichinose Kotomi (CL) [46.29%] vs Nagato Yuki (SHnY) [53.71%]
Actual: Ichinose Kotomi (CL) [51.07%] vs Nagato Yuki (SHnY) [48.93%]
Difference: 4.78

Predicted: Kōzuki Kallen (CG) [49.73%] vs Sawatari Makoto (KN) [50.27%]
Actual: Kōzuki Kallen (CG) [50.74%] vs Sawatari Makoto (KN) [49.26%]
Difference: 1.02

Predicted: Yagami Hayate (MSLN) [52.76%] vs Minase Nayuki (KN) [47.24%]
Actual: Yagami Hayate (MSLN) [48.85%] vs Minase Nayuki (KN) [51.15%]
Difference: 3.92

Predicted: Tsukimiya Ayu (KN) [56.11%] vs Shinku (RM) [43.89%]
Actual: Tsukimiya Ayu (KN) [48.53%] vs Shinku (RM) [51.47%]
Difference: 7.58

The actual reault was just far enough off of my predictions to change the winner. All of the winners I didn't predict won with less than 51.50% of the votes. Two of the five were caused by a Clannad overpermance. I guess Clannad did just end after all.


For once, the accuracy of my predictions slipped relative to the previous round. On average I was 2.90 percentage points off the correct result which is down from 2.44 later round. Also I had one prediction off by more than 7 percentage points but it was still under 8.

My three worst predictions:

Predicted: Tsukimiya Ayu (KN) [56.11%] vs Shinku (RM) [43.89%]
Actual: Tsukimiya Ayu (KN) [48.53%] vs Shinku (RM) [51.47%]
Difference: 7.58

Predicted: Kawashima Ami (TD) [56.68%] vs Evangeline McDowell (NG) [43.32%]
Actual: Kawashima Ami (TD) [63.13%] vs Evangeline McDowell (NG) [36.87%]
Difference: 6.45

Predicted: Shana (SnS) [59.61%] vs Takamachi Nanoha (MSLN) [40.39%]
Actual: Shana (SnS) [53.34%] vs Takamachi Nanoha (MSLN) [46.66%]
Difference: 6.27

I'm not quite sure what went wrong in Ayu versus Shinku. While Mai and Ayu underperformed, Nayuki and Shiori improved. The other Rozen Maiden character performed pretty much as expected as well. It's also hard to say wht Eva underperformed. Shana finally shows some weakness and Nanoha shows that she can still hang with the top tier. I'm thinking Shana was overestimated a bit from her crushing the lower tier characters. Not by too much, though. Shana is still the favorite to beat Tomoyo about a week from now. It'll be a tough match for Shana to win.


Only 7 of my predictions were within 1 percent this time. My best wasn't even all that great:

Predicted: Maria (HnG) [53.46%] vs Hakurei Reimu (TMK) [46.54%]
Actual: Maria (HnG) [53.26%] vs Hakurei Reimu (TMK) [46.74%]
Difference: 0.20

Nagisa, Fuuko and Kyou beat my expectations by over 5 percentage points. Kotomi almost made 5 percentage points. Mei and Tomoyo also over performed a bit. Even considering what the last episode was, I guess I should have seen this coming.

[Eater-of-All]

Hm, looking deeper, I see alot of match results I don't really like. Makoto can't even beat Kallen? Index defeating Akari? Saber over Ilya? >_>

The Alice win was pretty epic though.

[imbehindyou]

Aqua 6 results are very disappointing for me. Too much Clannad for me.

One of the most disappointing result for me was, obviously, Kotomi > Yuki. I also wasn't happy with Kagami > Nagisa. Well, that's just me. Also Nanoha D:

But congratulations to Alice Carroll, Shameimaru Aya, and Kurata Sayuri for their first win.