RESULTS: 2009 Aquamarine 8 (and more)

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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 8 (and more)

Post by Fate » Fri Apr 03, 2009 1:27 am

She's the main from K-ON! I think. Looks a bit like Hayate Yagami.
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 8 (and more)

Post by LazyCanuck » Fri Apr 03, 2009 1:29 am

eh nothing really shocking over all i got what i wanted


Fuuko beating Yami is rage worthy but expected

-sighs-
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 8 (and more)

Post by Demi. » Fri Apr 03, 2009 1:30 am

LazyCanuck wrote:eh nothing really shocking over all i got what i wanted


Fuuko beating Yami is rage worthy but expected

-sighs-
That darn Fuko club. rageragerage
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 8 (and more)

Post by maikun » Fri Apr 03, 2009 1:38 am

Fate wrote:She's the main from K-ON! I think. Looks a bit like Hayate Yagami.

lol i know her.. Mio Ftw.. Uis has 4 Yui favorite characters
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 8 (and more)

Post by maikun » Fri Apr 03, 2009 1:40 am

Demi. wrote:
LazyCanuck wrote:eh nothing really shocking over all i got what i wanted


Fuuko beating Yami is rage worthy but expected

-sighs-
That darn Fuko club. rageragerage

just saw someone comment on that club says voted 4 times >_>
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 8 (and more)

Post by Team Rocket Elite » Fri Apr 03, 2009 1:44 am

One match off a perfect prediction again:

Predicted: Kinomoto Sakura (CCS) [46.36%] vs Sunohara Mei (CL) [53.64%]
Actual: Kinomoto Sakura (CCS) [52.31%] vs Sunohara Mei (CL) [47.69%]
Difference: 5.95

Not too unexpected. I expected it to be a close match to begin with and I knew the Clannad characters were likely to be slightly overinflated in my stats.


Prediction accuracy went up a fair bit this time. On average I was 2.45 percentage points off the actual result. That's just a hair worse than my best record of 2.44 points off in Aquamarine 5. 7 of my predictions were within 1 percentage point of the correct result.

Only 4 of my predictions were more than 5 percentage points off the correct result:

Predicted: Suzumiya Haruhi (SHnY) [67.18%] vs Hinamori Amu (SC) [32.82%]
Actual: Suzumiya Haruhi (SHnY) [74.26%] vs Hinamori Amu (SC) [25.74%]
Difference: 7.08

Predicted: Kinomoto Sakura (CCS) [46.36%] vs Sunohara Mei (CL) [53.64%]
Actual: Kinomoto Sakura (CCS) [52.31%] vs Sunohara Mei (CL) [47.69%]
Difference: 5.95

Predicted: Anya Alstreim (CG) [38.39%] vs Furude Rika (HNKN) [61.61%]
Actual: Anya Alstreim (CG) [32.65%] vs Furude Rika (HNKN) [67.35%]
Difference: 5.74

Predicted: Aisaka Taiga (TD) [67.14%] vs Kushieda Minori (TD) [32.86%]
Actual: Aisaka Taiga (TD) [72.49%] vs Kushieda Minori (TD) [27.51%]
Difference: 5.35

I think Haruhi just has problems putting up huge beat downs on her opponents. She should look a lot better against tougher opponents. I expected a lot of SFF in Taiga vs Minori but I guess I just severely underestimated how much it would be.

Edit: I'm an idiot. I read the numbers backwards. Haruhi actually killed Amu worse than expected.


My best prediction:

Predicted: Kawashima Ami (TD) [38.63%] vs Sakagami Tomoyo (CL) [61.37%]
Actual: Kawashima Ami (TD) [38.4%] vs Sakagami Tomoyo (CL) [61.6%]
Difference: 0.22

I'm surprised it invovled a Clannad character. I keep going on about how they will fall in power but maybe it won't happen as fast as I thought it would. It seems Tomoyo is going to be in top form against Shana tommorow. It'll be one hell of a match.


Predicted: Fujibayashi Kyō (CL) [66.13%] vs Shinku (RM) [33.87%]
Actual: Fujibayashi Kyō (CL) [68.12%] vs Shinku (RM) [31.88%]
Difference: 1.99

Kyou is scary. Based on my stats, she is currently the top ranked character after getting a spike in power during Aquamarine 6. Not only did she meet my expectations for being the top ranked character, she beat them. It wasn't by too much, but I would have expected an underperformance not an overperformance. Killing lower level characters can sometimes be unreliable but right now Kyou is perfoerming like a #1 rank. Kyou is facing Yuki tommorow. That will be the true test of Kyou's power.
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 8 (and more)

Post by Seishi » Fri Apr 03, 2009 2:01 am

Looks like Aquamarine 9 will be a fight to the finish.

Ayeaye, good to see Yuuhi befriended. Seven party guests and counting.
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 8 (and more)

Post by Corni » Fri Apr 03, 2009 2:06 am

maikun wrote:Yui who? :D
I forgot i have three fav Yui...
Anyway best bet is *look at my avie*
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 8 (and more)

Post by maikun » Fri Apr 03, 2009 2:24 am

uis wrote:
maikun wrote:Yui who? :D
I forgot i have three fav Yui...
Anyway best bet is *look at my avie*

lol i was planning to make a Mio gif.. :bigsmile:
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 8 (and more)

Post by Meimi132 » Fri Apr 03, 2009 2:29 am

Well they're better than round 7's results. They were horrid...

How does Mai beat Ayu in a sane world? It was so close too...

Glad that Fuuko, Kotomi, Nagisa, Sakura and Makoto(WOO) won. Saddened by Chii's loss... but against C.C... she didn't stand much chance...

And finally- GAH Wish I had been paying more attention last 24 hours... I missed the chance to vote in the pendant one... Awww.... I wanted Hamaji from H20 to win... lol Or Satoshi lol
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 8 (and more)

Post by chaosprophet » Fri Apr 03, 2009 3:12 am

Ah Minorinnn... You had to lost by that much...
Eva-chan... how many times will you do that to me...
Kirino >.<
Fate and Yuki congratz and good luck in next match.
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 8 (and more)

Post by Eater-of-All » Fri Apr 03, 2009 3:25 am

The amount of rape in this tournament is inversely proportional to the amount of total votes, it seems....

For the results, I'm probably only interested in the Ayu vs Mai match. It could've gone either way, but this vote difference actually reflects the edge Mai still has over Ayu since last year.
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 8 (and more)

Post by chaosprophet » Fri Apr 03, 2009 3:30 am

Yeah the total votes dropped a lot this round... was it during a special day somewhere or something?
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 8 (and more)

Post by ithekro » Fri Apr 03, 2009 3:32 am

Maybe there is a natural drop in voting mid-week, but not near the ends of the week?

Or these matches didn't appeal to a lot of people...lots of same series matching this time (Torodora, Kanon, Touhou)
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 8 (and more)

Post by frustra » Fri Apr 03, 2009 3:48 am

14-17-1, low vote totals, Amu getting crushed, etc.

Now. Time for the fated match.
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 8 (and more)

Post by Corni » Fri Apr 03, 2009 3:49 am

Yeah total vote dropped *maybe beacuse Aquamarine 8 didnt have interesting match*

Anyway hope for more voters in Aquamarine 9... *last Aquamarine ^^*
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 8 (and more)

Post by Demi. » Fri Apr 03, 2009 3:51 am

Well, in order of round vote population...

Round 1: 2321 total votes
Round 2: 2171 total votes
Round 3: 2399 total votes
Round 4: 2640 total votes
Round 5: 2179 total votes
Round 6: 2832 total votes
Round 7: 3072 total votes
Round 8: 2331 total votes

I'de say round 6, and especially round 7 was a freak of nature. Round 7 may have had a lot to do with Type-moon trying to cause a upset as they came damn close to it. There really where not any other big matches that round, so I don't know what else it could be.

Also, round 8 has roughly the same vote count as round 1. Ironic, Isn't it?
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 8 (and more)

Post by overfunk » Fri Apr 03, 2009 4:11 am

I have to say now that Shana vs Tomoyo was planned.
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 8 (and more)

Post by imbehindyou » Fri Apr 03, 2009 4:32 am

Glad to see all Higurashi girls doing so well and also Horo finally getting her 3rd win. F*** yeah Sakura beat Mei. But then Clannad still having 3, freaking 3 candidates that are still undefeated is major fail.

Surprising to see Remilia Scarlet as the highest ranked Touhou girl. Who knew Touhou girls would not fare so well?

Anyway, go go Shana, Yuki, and Haruhi-sama!
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Re: RESULTS - Aquamarine 8 (and more)

Post by ithekro » Fri Apr 03, 2009 4:39 am

Round 1: 2321 total votes
Round 2: 2171 total votes - middle of the week
Round 3: 2399 total votes
Round 4: 2640 total votes
Round 5: 2179 total votes - middle of the week
Round 6: 2832 total votes
Round 7: 3072 total votes
Round 8: 2331 total votes - middle of the week

Partial pattern detected.
Expecting even greater numbers for Round 9.
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