FANTASY: 2011 Topaz 1

[Chocola]

# of correct predictions for me should be 25! But my score seems correct!

Thanks for telling me. All of the scores are correct, but there was a mistake in calculating the number correct out of 26.

[Toady]

One day, I'll master this abstain thing. But now, I did a very average score... Oh and I got 24 and not 25 as it's written

[Momo]

What's the abstain thing?

(And how do points work?)

[Miku]

Though I did not do very well, the result itself is cheering. I think my biggest mistake is betting on the incorrect side of the exhibition match. ;_;

[Yakuman]

Darn, missed exhibition And here I thought it was easy since Eva got more nominations in the prelims than Chii

[Au-psyche]

34... That's number of lamdadelta...0w0
Anyway not a bad start, I think.

[hinakatbklyn]

What's the abstain thing?
(And how do points work?)

Abstaining: (voting) Not voting for either character
(Fantasy prediction) Same scenario except that one abstain is to predict which match is the closest match (lowest vote difference) out of all the matches (not including exhibition).

Points in Fantasy: (quick summary) More predict the same character in the match and is correct = less points. Less predictions for winning character = more points.

Rough estimate:
49/50 correct = less than 0.1 points
1/50 correct = almost 2 points

[Momo]

Points in Fantasy: (quick summary) More predict the same character in the match and is correct = less points. Less predictions for winning character = more points.

Rough estimate:
49/50 correct = less than 0.1 points
1/50 correct = almost 2 points

So each round (within a period) is worth a different number of points? (eg. Topaz 1 is worth 6 points, but Topaz 2 worth 9 because fewer people got it right) Or is it based on a percentage of? (Like, more weighting in arena 1, for example, as opposed to arena 2)

[Miku]

Yes, it depends. The accurate score point will not be able to calculated until the result being released.

[ilkaid]

Well I failed big time, at least I dont have to aim high to improve.

[Momo]

Yes, it depends. The accurate score point will not be able to calculated until the result being released.

I see.. how come some people have higher than the maximum points (from the list below the table)?

[Alexander]

Cause the correct abstain (which is gay btw) gives a constant 2 points. while those who only predicted the winner in that match got less than 2 points, and max score is aparently calculated without taking abstain into consideration.

[Toady]

If you want the math :

scoring, only look if you like mathShow

Based on a bookie format, the formula for each arena if you got it right is:

t = total # of participants
v = how many voted the same as you (including you)

2 * (t - v + 1) / t

Of course, if you get it wrong, then you get 0 points. For example, if there were 30 fantasy participants and you were the only one to predict Ayanami Rei to win and she does, then you get:

2 * (30 - 1 + 1) / 30 = 2 points

while everyone gets 0. If instead Alice Caroll won, then everyone would get:

2 * (30 - 29 + 1) / 30 = 0.13 points

while you get 0.

If you abstain and get it right, then you get the max score for that arena, which is 2 points. When you abstain an arena, it counts as not predicting the winner, so the formula for everyone else's score changes. For example, if there were 30 fantasy participants again, 20 voted for Alice, 10 voted for Rei including you, and Rei wins:

2 * (30 - 10 + 1) / 30 = 1.4 points

Now let's say you abstained and Alice vs. Rei is indeed the closest match, so you get 2 points. But everyone else who voted for Rei will get:

2 * (30 - 9 + 1) / 30 = 1.47 points

So as you can see, regardless of whether or not your abstain was correct, everyone else who voted for Rei increases their score.

As you can see, abstain can be very interesting. You can abstain two matches (but not more !) if you want, but of course one of them will be wrong and it'll cost you points. But as a correct abstain is two full points it may be an option.
I don't think it's that gay...

SpoilerShow

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[Alexander]

I'm sorry but abstain is broken as hell.
It should be a mechanic to save you from getting no points in a match that is close, not a way to get more points than those who predict the winner.

SpoilerShow

It would be better if it worked like this.
Correct abstain only gets you the least amount of points that the match could have given
Example:
If those who predicted the winner gets 1.5 out of the correct abstain match, then those who abstained it should only get 0.5
If those who predicted the winner gets 0.25 out of the correct abstain match, then those who abstained it should also get 0.25
Makes much more sense this way

[Chocola]

Lol, I can't believe how misinformed Alexander is about what abstain is. It is definitely not supposed to be an "easy way out" for close matches, not something where someone says, "Oh, this match is too hard, too lazy to guess, let's just abstain and see." It has always been viewed as something very rewarding if you have good skills or are willing to take a risk. The Seitokai will make more changes to abstains in the future, all of which increases the "potency" of abstaining.

[Eater-of-All]

Decided not to abstain Mato vs Konata. inb4 1 vote difference.

Well, not exactly 1 VD, but FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFUUUUUUUU.

[Team Rocket Elite]

"Oh, this match is too hard, too lazy to guess, let's just abstain and see."

Wait, I'm NOT supposed to do that? >_>

[Alexander]

"Oh, this match is too hard, too lazy to guess, let's just abstain and see."

Wait, I'm NOT supposed to do that? >_>

See?

[Chocola]

Uh, the answer is still you're not. That's how it was in the past, and it was never intended to be that way, hence why the abstain rule got changed.

[Alexander]

Uh, the answer is still you're not. That's how it was in the past, and it was never intended to be that way, hence why the abstain rule got changed.

It is when there is a match that is expected to go into a difference that is way too close. It may not be like it when all matches are pretty one sided though.