RESULTS - Topaz 1

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RESULTS - Topaz 1

Post by Chocola » Tue Apr 14, 2009 7:12 pm

Post your discussions about results here. This post will be updated with graphics when they become available. Results are released 12 hours after the end of the match, which is at 0000 GMT on 15 April (or 5 PM PDT, 8 PM EDT on 14 April). For more time translations, please refer to this thread.

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By PercentageShow
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Cumulative StatisticsShow
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Performance RatingsShow
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Juice's Performance RatingsShow
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Text Results for RagingShow
77.21% - #02 Suzumiya Haruhi (SHnY) > #57 Kawazoe Tamaki (BB)
75.83% - #04 Fujibayashi Kyō (CL) > #55 Chiba Kirino (BB)
72.93% - #05 Shana (SnS) > #28 Louise Vallière (ZnT)
70.99% - #37 Kawashima Ami (TD) > #64 Kasuga "Ōsaka" Ayumu (AD)
70.10% - #06 Takamachi Nanoha (MSLN) > #58 Patchouli Knowledge (TMK)
69.23% - #08 Ichinose Kotomi (CL) > #56 Shameimaru Aya (TMK)
---
68.46% - #41 Holo (OtK) > #53 Mizunashi Akari (ARIA)
67.20% - #21 Tōsaka Rin (FSN) > #51 Sawatari Makoto (KN)
65.15% - #07 Furukawa Nagisa (CL) > #40 Remilia Scarlet (TMK)
64.83% - #22 Suigintou (RM) > #62 Evangeline McDowell (NG)
64.61% - #11 Izumi Konata (LS) > #50 Minase Nayuki (KN)
64.36% - #16 Nagato Yuki (SHnY) > #18 Furude Hanyū (HNKN)
64.04% - #15 Hiiragi Kagami (LS) > #33 Maria (HnG)
61.59% - #12 Katsura Hinagiku (HnG) > #29 Kawasumi Mai (KN)
61.34% - #30 Shinku (RM) > #45 Nagi (KNG)
60.97% - #03 Fate Testarossa (MSLN) > #48 Kurata Sayuri (KN)
60.41% - #25 Illyasviel von Einzbern (FSN) > #44 Katagiri Yūhi (AISS)
59.52% - #27 Suiseiseki (RM) > #61 Hinamori Amu (SC)
58.79% - #01 Sakagami Tomoyo (CL) > #14 Ibuki Fūko (CL)
58.46% - #35 Chii (CH) > #38 Anya Alstreim (CG)
58.03% - #10 Aisaka Taiga (TD) > #23 Sanzen'in Nagi (HnG)
57.79% - #20 Hiiragi Tsukasa (LS) > #42 Kushieda Minori (TD)
57.74% - #52 Yagami Hayate (MSLN) > #49 Kōzuki Kallen (CG)
57.73% - #26 Asahina Mikuru (SHnY) > #19 Ryūgū Rena (HNKN)
57.50% - #34 Hakurei Reimu (TMK) > #63 Kirisame Marisa (TMK)
55.35% - #36 Sunohara Mei (CL) > #32 Kamio Misuzu (AIR)
54.91% - #31 Misaka Mikoto (TAMI) > #46 Ryōgi Shiki (KnK)
---
54.63% - #13 Saber (FSN) > #17 C.C. (CG)
52.96% - #43 Index Prohibitorum (TAMI) > #54 Alice Carroll (ARIA)
52.20% - #24 Kinomoto Sakura (CCS) > #47 Tsukimiya Ayu (KN)
51.24% - #60 Misaka Shiori (KN) > #59 Vita (MSLN)
51.21% - #09 Furude Rika (HNKN) > #39 Konjiki no Yami (TLR)
Decisive Matches (6)
ARENA 23 - #02 Suzumiya Haruhi (SHnY) > #57 Kawazoe Tamaki (BB), 77.21%
ARENA 05 - #04 Fujibayashi Kyō (CL) > #55 Chiba Kirino (BB), 75.83%
ARENA 14 - #05 Shana (SnS) > #28 Louise Vallière (ZnT), 72.93%
ARENA 10 - #37 Kawashima Ami (TD) > #64 Kasuga "Ōsaka" Ayumu (AD), 70.99%
ARENA 01 - #06 Takamachi Nanoha (MSLN) > #58 Patchouli Knowledge (TMK), 70.10%
ARENA 19 - #08 Ichinose Kotomi (CL) > #56 Shameimaru Aya (TMK), 69.23%

Close Matches (5)
ARENA 03 - #13 Saber (FSN) > #17 C.C. (CG), 54.63%
ARENA 04 - #43 Index Prohibitorum (TAMI) > #54 Alice Carroll (ARIA), 52.96%
ARENA 16 - #24 Kinomoto Sakura (CCS) > #47 Tsukimiya Ayu (KN), 52.20%
ARENA 09 - #60 Misaka Shiori (KN) > #59 Vita (MSLN), 51.24%
ARENA 31 - #09 Furude Rika (HNKN) > #39 Konjiki no Yami (TLR), 51.21%

Upsets (3)
ARENA 12 - #52 Yagami Hayate (MSLN) > #49 Kōzuki Kallen (CG), 57.74%
ARENA 29 - #26 Asahina Mikuru (SHnY) > #19 Ryūgū Rena (HNKN), 57.73%
ARENA 30 - #36 Sunohara Mei (CL) > #32 Kamio Misuzu (AIR), 55.35%

Notable Events
-The lowest ranked Kanon character, Misaka Shiori, was the only Kanon character to win.
-All three Rozen Maiden characters won.
-Two matches had over a 75% win margin when no matches in Aquamarine was above that margin.

Statistics
-The contestant who increased most in rankings, [+5], is Tōsaka Rin (FSN).
-The contestant who decreased most in rankings, [-4], is Maria (HnG).
-The contestant with the best rating performance , [95.84], is Sakagami Tomoyo (CL).
-The contestant with the worst rating performance, [56.49], is Kasuga "Ōsaka" Ayumu (AD).
-The total valid votes for Aquamarine 7 is 3536, 85.5% accepted.
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 1

Post by Cecaniah » Tue Apr 14, 2009 7:25 pm

What was the percent of suspicious votes last time?

I can't wait to see. I wonder if I'll break my no rage record today. Though I expect the worst for the Geass girls today.

Edit OMG! I love your C.C. sig in your rotation.
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 1

Post by Chocola » Tue Apr 14, 2009 7:33 pm

I don't have that information handy, but I know that sometimes it gets above 20% which is kinda bad. You may think 3% does not matter, but that's over 100 fake votes that could well overturn lots of matches.

Oh, and thanks. I like the signature too.
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 1

Post by Fate » Tue Apr 14, 2009 8:52 pm

Can't wait, woo.
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 1

Post by Demi. » Tue Apr 14, 2009 9:58 pm

Some good results, please.
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 1

Post by Chocola » Wed Apr 15, 2009 12:31 am

There's 30 minutes left, so I'll spoil that the total votes is 3536, which means there were 85.5% legal votes.
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 1

Post by ithekro » Wed Apr 15, 2009 12:41 am

More Saimoe-ish numbers than Best Moe-ish...which is probably a good thing at this point in time.
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 1

Post by Corni » Wed Apr 15, 2009 1:02 am

Okay result... and i can see how strong Saber and Rin...
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 1

Post by Fate » Wed Apr 15, 2009 1:03 am

The vote totals are incredibly high.
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 1

Post by Meimi132 » Wed Apr 15, 2009 1:05 am

Fuuko, Makoto and Ayu lost.... Fuuko stood no chance against Tomoyo... :sulk: Still don't see why she's so great. I'm glad Chii and Sakura won. And Kotomi ofc.
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 1

Post by Motoyama » Wed Apr 15, 2009 1:08 am

Arena 25, lol least votes.
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 1

Post by Demi. » Wed Apr 15, 2009 1:12 am

Well, no good results today.

May Haruhi characters crush beneath their overratedness.
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 1

Post by -synchronizer- » Wed Apr 15, 2009 1:16 am

Nothing terribly upsetting that wasn't expected already. Yami doing so well is surprising, at least at first glance. Alice got somewhat close but still lost.
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 1

Post by Cecaniah » Wed Apr 15, 2009 1:26 am

WOW!!!! 31 correct predictions!!! OMG!!!!!! -heartattack-

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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 1

Post by imbehindyou » Wed Apr 15, 2009 1:28 am

How did Yami get so strong all of a sudden?
I'm happy with the results except Mikuru > Rena.
Oh wait, Mei > Misuzu is fail too.

This result proves that TYPE-MOON Fanbase > GEASS Fanbase... for now.

2 Predictions wrong:
Vita < Misaka Shiori
and
Asahina Mikuru > Ryuuguu Rena
(I secretly believed that Mikuru would win, but I didn't want to accept the truth o.o )

Vita vs Shiori match was pretty close, though. Way off for Mikuru > Rena match.
Last edited by imbehindyou on Wed Apr 15, 2009 1:40 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 1

Post by Cecaniah » Wed Apr 15, 2009 1:31 am

imbehindyou wrote:How did Yami get so strong all of a sudden?
I'm happy with the results except Mikuru > Rena.

This result proves that TYPE-MOON Fanbase > GEASS Fanbase... for now.
No, it's just my will is god, and I predicted all Geass girls to lose.

But not all things obey it.

jk. I'm just so happy about my predictions.

Anyways, I'm going to Watch CCS
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 1

Post by Chocola » Wed Apr 15, 2009 1:32 am

Cecaniah wrote:Anyways, I'm going to Watch CCS
I love you.
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 1

Post by Fate » Wed Apr 15, 2009 1:33 am

imbehindyou wrote:This result proves that TYPE-MOON Fanbase > GEASS Fanbase... for now.
Never thought I'd live long enough to see that happen.
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 1

Post by ithekro » Wed Apr 15, 2009 1:35 am

Weird that the lowest and second lowest voted matches have a 400 vote difference between them.
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 1

Post by Team Rocket Elite » Wed Apr 15, 2009 1:37 am

A strong start. I predicted 93% of the matches correctly. My mistakes were:

Predicted: C.C. (CG) [51.84%] vs Saber (FSN) [48.16%]
Actual: C.C. (CG) [45.37%] vs Saber (FSN) [54.63%]
Difference: 6.47

Predicted: Vita (MSLN) [51.44%] vs Misaka Shiori (KN) [48.56%]
Actual: Vita (MSLN) [48.76%] vs Misaka Shiori (KN) [51.24%]
Difference: 2.69

Mispredicting C.C. isn't too surprising. Her unexpected win against Kotomi in Aquamarine 9 significantly increased her rank in my stats. Her performance against Kotomi seems to have been a one time deal. This isn't all C.C. falling back to normal, Saber still continues to increase in strength. I've bumped her up in the stats a couple times now and it seems she keeps going up.

I expected Vita vs Shiori to be a close match and it was a close match. Winner wasn't who I expected though. Match could have gone either way, but Shiori took the win. No complaints here. <3 Shiori


Prediction accuracy was a bit on the low side but it's to be expected since I haven't had data to adjust my stats during the last week. I was off by 3.37 percentage points on average. My stats tended to predict the results pretty closely but not as much nearly exact predictions as usual. Only one particularly bad prediction this time:

Predicted: Furude Rika (HNKN) [60.19%] vs Konjiki no Yami (TLR) [39.81%]
Actual: Furude Rika (HNKN) [51.21%] vs Konjiki no Yami (TLR) [48.79%]
Difference: 8.98

Yami nearly beat Rika? Stats or no stats, that's shocking result. Yami has performed as a solid midcarder while Rika is pretty much one of the elite. Yami should be fighting to stay above .500 while Rika is a likely top 16 finisher. I believe the a To-Love-ru OAV came out recently. Is it something that would cause Yami to boost by so much?


The poor prediction average was caused by a lack of truly great predictions. Only 5 were within 1 percentage point of the correct result. My best was:

Predicted: Ibuki Fūko (CL) [41.41%] vs Sakagami Tomoyo (CL) [58.59%]
Actual: Ibuki Fūko (CL) [41.21%] vs Sakagami Tomoyo (CL) [58.79%]
Difference: 0.21



Predicted: Louise Vallière (ZnT) [33.61%] vs Shana (SnS) [66.39%]
Actual: Louise Vallière (ZnT) [27.07%] vs Shana (SnS) [72.93%]
Difference: 6.54

Predicted: Hiiragi Kagami (LS) [60.16%] vs Maria (HnG) [39.84%]
Actual: Hiiragi Kagami (LS) [64.04%] vs Maria (HnG) [35.96%]
Difference: 3.88

Kagami and Shana were my two predictions for the Topaz necklace winners. Both of them exceeded my expectation. Shana's match was a SFF match so I guess it doesn't say too much. Shana's competiton in Rika and Nagisa both underperformed relative to expectations. They probably can't beat Shana now but they might not get the wins Shana needs to have a high enough SDO to get the necklace. Kagami's top opponents were Rena and Rin. Rena underperformed while Rin overperformed slightly. Right now I'd say I'm still pretty confident in Kagami or Shana taking the Topaz necklace. Topaz 9 isn't an issue because Kagami or Shana has to win since they face each other(unless they tie >_>). 8 matches is a long road, though.
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