RESULTS - Topaz 2

[Chocola]

Post your discussions about results here. This post will be updated with graphics when they become available. Results are released 12 hours after the end of the match, which is at 0000 GMT on 17 April (or 5 PM PDT, 8 PM EDT on 16 April). For more time translations, please refer to this thread.

By PercentageShow

Cumulative StatisticsShow

Performance RatingsShow

Juice's Performance RatingsShow

Text Results for RagingShow

74.96% - #05 Shana (SnS) > #64 Kasuga "Ōsaka" Ayumu (AD)
72.60% - #15 Nagato Yuki (SHnY) > #45 Nagi (KNG)
71.75% - #04 Fujibayashi Kyō (CL) > #51 Kōzuki Kallen (CG)
69.22% - #25 Asahina Mikuru (SHnY) > #40 Remilia Scarlet (TMK)
68.87% - #11 Saber (FSN) > #60 Hinamori Amu (SC)
---
68.20% - #12 Katsura Hinagiku (HnG) > #55 Alice Carroll (ARIA)
67.00% - #10 Ichinose Kotomi (CL) > #38 Anya Alstreim (CG)
66.01% - #01 Sakagami Tomoyo (CL) > #62 Vita (MSLN)
65.31% - #37 Maria (HnG) > #54 Chiba Kirino (BB)
64.91% - #06 Furukawa Nagisa (CL) > #33 Kamio Misuzu (AIR)
64.49% - #24 Sanzen'in Nagi (HnG) > #63 Kirisame Marisa (TMK)
64.41% - #47 Tsukimiya Ayu (KN) > #56 Shameimaru Aya (TMK)
63.97% - #19 Hiiragi Tsukasa (LS) > #58 Kawazoe Tamaki (BB)
63.37% - #02 Fate Testarossa (MSLN) > #44 Katagiri Yūhi (AISS)
62.99% - #22 Suigintou (RM) > #57 Misaka Shiori (KN)
62.14% - #14 Hiiragi Kagami (LS) > #29 Misaka Mikoto (TAMI)
61.74% - #43 Kushieda Minori (TD) > #53 Mizunashi Akari (ARIA)
61.51% - #21 Ryūgū Rena (HNKN) > #46 Ryōgi Shiki (KnK)
61.09% - #08 Takamachi Nanoha (MSLN) > #34 Hakurei Reimu (TMK)
60.88% - #03 Suzumiya Haruhi (SHnY) > #17 Ibuki Fūko (CL)
60.82% - #39 Konjiki no Yami (TLR) > #52 Sawatari Makoto (KN)
60.68% - #07 Aisaka Taiga (TD) > #50 Minase Nayuki (KN)
58.41% - #18 C.C. (CG) > #42 Index Prohibitorum (TAMI)
57.39% - #13 Izumi Konata (LS) > #27 Shinku (RM)
57.13% - #61 Evangeline McDowell (NG) > #59 Patchouli Knowledge (TMK)
56.55% - #16 Tōsaka Rin (FSN) > #32 Sunohara Mei (CL)
---
54.39% - #23 Kinomoto Sakura (CCS) > #49 Yagami Hayate (MSLN)
52.77% - #41 Holo (OtK) > #26 Illyasviel von Einzbern (FSN)
52.32% - #28 Suiseiseki (RM) > #35 Chii (CH)
50.89% - #36 Kawashima Ami (TD) > #09 Furude Rika (HNKN)
50.48% - #31 Kawasumi Mai (KN) > #20 Furude Hanyū (HNKN)
50.40% - #48 Kurata Sayuri (KN) > #30 Louise Vallière (ZnT)

Decisive Matches (5)
ARENA 16 - #05 Shana (SnS) > #64 Kasuga "Ōsaka" Ayumu (AD), 74.96%
ARENA 10 - #15 Nagato Yuki (SHnY) > #45 Nagi (KNG), 72.60%
ARENA 01 - #04 Fujibayashi Kyō (CL) > #51 Kōzuki Kallen (CG), 71.75%
ARENA 20 - #25 Asahina Mikuru (SHnY) > #40 Remilia Scarlet (TMK), 69.22%
ARENA 11 - #11 Saber (FSN) > #60 Hinamori Amu (SC), 68.87%

Close Matches (6)
ARENA 12 - #23 Kinomoto Sakura (CCS) > #49 Yagami Hayate (MSLN), 54.39%
ARENA 26 - #41 Holo (OtK) > #26 Illyasviel von Einzbern (FSN), 52.77%
ARENA 03 - #28 Suiseiseki (RM) > #35 Chii (CH), 52.32%
ARENA 23 - #36 Kawashima Ami (TD) > #09 Furude Rika (HNKN), 50.89%
ARENA 05 - #31 Kawasumi Mai (KN) > #20 Furude Hanyū (HNKN), 50.48%
ARENA 17 - #48 Kurata Sayuri (KN) > #30 Louise Vallière (ZnT), 50.40%

Upsets (5)
ARENA 22 - #61 Evangeline McDowell (NG) > #59 Patchouli Knowledge (TMK), 57.13%
ARENA 26 - #41 Holo (OtK) > #26 Illyasviel von Einzbern (FSN), 52.77%
ARENA 23 - #36 Kawashima Ami (TD) > #09 Furude Rika (HNKN), 50.89%
ARENA 05 - #31 Kawasumi Mai (KN) > #20 Furude Hanyū (HNKN), 50.48%
ARENA 17 - #48 Kurata Sayuri (KN) > #30 Louise Vallière (ZnT), 50.40%

Notable Events
-All 3 Toradora characters won.
-Kawashima Ami (TD) managed to upset Furude Rika (HNKN) across 27 ranks.
-Kinomoto Sakura (CCS) is the highest ranked character without a decisive win.
-Fujibayashi Kyō (CL) is undefeated and have the easiest cumulative schedule.
-Shana (SnS) still has the highest VF (votes for) and most decisive wins despite losing once.

Statistics
-The contestants who increased most in rankings, [+7], are Holo (OtK) and Kurata Sayuri (KN).
-The contestant who decreased most in rankings, [-7], is Louise Vallière (ZnT).
-The contestant with the best rating performance , [94.95], is Sakagami Tomoyo (CL).
-The contestant with the worst rating performance, [56.00], is Kasuga "Ōsaka" Ayumu (AD).
-The total valid votes for Aquamarine 7 is 3208, 86.4% accepted.

[Fate]

Not a bad percentage. Looking forward to this.

[Demi.]

Based on Fantasy results, expecting predictable results. Which I guess, Isn't a bad thing...Though some results I'de definitely liked to be surprised with, just not some others...

[imbehindyou]

Nice, I hope Evangeline got a win.

[Chocola]

Based on Fantasy results, expecting predictable results. Which I guess, Isn't a bad thing...Though some results I'de definitely liked to be surprised with, just not some others...

I wouldn't be so sure. Your score only rise when the simulation is off. If you have a really high rise, that means the simulation was way off, not necessarily you got it all right.

[Cecaniah]

Yay?

Well, I'm going to pass the wait time by watching CCS. I found 2 episodes so far that I don't remember

[Team Rocket Elite]

Last second predictions!

My predictions for Topaz 2Show

Furude Rika (HNKN) [55.9%] vs Kawashima Ami (TD) [44.1%]
Kawasumi Mai (KN) [51.13%] vs Furude Hanyū (HNKN) [48.87%]
Mizunashi Akari (ARIA) [37.94%] vs Kushieda Minori (TD) [62.06%]
Nagato Yuki (SHnY) [67.84%] vs Nagi (KNG) [32.16%]
Kōzuki Kallen (CG) [29.39%] vs Fujibayashi Kyō (CL) [70.61%]
Ryōgi Shiki (KnK) [40.52%] vs Ryūgū Rena (HNKN) [59.48%]
Minase Nayuki (KN) [36.9%] vs Aisaka Taiga (TD) [63.1%]
Alice Carroll (ARIA) [34.21%] vs Katsura Hinagiku (HnG) [65.79%]
Shinku (RM) [44.89%] vs Izumi Konata (LS) [55.11%]
Furukawa Nagisa (CL) [63.82%] vs Kamio Misuzu (AIR) [36.18%]
Louise Vallière (ZnT) [50.54%] vs Kurata Sayuri (KN) [49.46%]
Vita (MSLN) [30.87%] vs Sakagami Tomoyo (CL) [69.13%]
Hakurei Reimu (TMK) [37.38%] vs Takamachi Nanoha (MSLN) [62.62%]
Suzumiya Haruhi (SHnY) [59.17%] vs Ibuki Fūko (CL) [40.83%]
Fate Testarossa (MSLN) [67.25%] vs Katagiri Yūhi (AISS) [32.75%]
Hiiragi Kagami (LS) [61.62%] vs Misaka Mikoto (TAMI) [38.38%]
Illyasviel von Einzbern (FSN) [47.9%] vs Holo (OtK) [52.1%]
Hinamori Amu (SC) [30.06%] vs Saber (FSN) [69.94%]
Hiiragi Tsukasa (LS) [67.62%] vs Kawazoe Tamaki (BB) [32.38%]
Patchouli Knowledge (TMK) [45.57%] vs Evangeline McDowell (NG) [54.43%]
C.C. (CG) [62.39%] vs Index Prohibitorum (TAMI) [37.61%]
Ichinose Kotomi (CL) [66.43%] vs Anya Alstreim (CG) [33.57%]
Kinomoto Sakura (CCS) [56.47%] vs Yagami Hayate (MSLN) [43.53%]
Tsukimiya Ayu (KN) [64.24%] vs Shameimaru Aya (TMK) [35.76%]
Chiba Kirino (BB) [36.68%] vs Maria (HnG) [63.32%]
Suigintou (RM) [62.59%] vs Misaka Shiori (KN) [37.41%]
Asahina Mikuru (SHnY) [67.19%] vs Remilia Scarlet (TMK) [32.81%]
Chii (CH) [47.53%] vs Suiseiseki (RM) [52.47%]
Sawatari Makoto (KN) [41.41%] vs Konjiki no Yami (TLR) [58.59%]
Kasuga "Ōsaka" Ayumu (AD) [25.98%] vs Shana (SnS) [74.02%]
Sunohara Mei (CL) [44.36%] vs Tōsaka Rin (FSN) [55.64%]
Sanzen'in Nagi (HnG) [63.13%] vs Kirisame Marisa (TMK) [36.87%]

[minhtam1638]

Based on Fantasy results, expecting predictable results. Which I guess, Isn't a bad thing...Though some results I'd definitely like to be surprised with, just not some others...

I wouldn't write the ship like that. Remember Ayu vs. Yuki last year. stranger things have happened.

[Cecaniah]

Based on Fantasy results, expecting predictable results. Which I guess, Isn't a bad thing...Though some results I'd definitely like to be surprised with, just not some others...

I wouldn't write the ship like that. Remember Ayu vs. Yuki last year. stranger things have happened.

What happened?

I was suprised that C.C. beat Shana last year. It shocked me.

[Demi.]

Based on Fantasy results, expecting predictable results. Which I guess, Isn't a bad thing...Though some results I'de definitely liked to be surprised with, just not some others...

I wouldn't be so sure. Your score only rise when the simulation is off. If you have a really high rise, that means the simulation was way off, not necessarily you got it all right.

Thanks. Well, now you've scared me for the last 30minutes before votes release.

Though your simulation was more off last match, though I guess that might of been 'cause it was the first match.

[Chocola]

Demi., you need to set highlight on IRC so it notifies you when someone says your nick.

[Meimi132]

I canne' wait to see the results!! Though I know a few of my favourites will have fallen...
EDIT
Kyaaaa OMG how did Hanyuu AND Rika lose???? Just ain't right...
And Sayuri beat Louise??! What was going on there?? Seriously? The rest is fairly so-so. Sad that Fuuko and Makoto lost ofc... but Fuuko stood no chance against Haruhi...

[imbehindyou]

Big fail.

Matches predicted wrong:

Rika vs Ami (FAIL)
Mai vs Hanyuu (FAIL)
Louise vs Sayuri (LOL)
Makoto vs Yami

I wasn't good, I guess simulator was bad lol.

[Cecaniah]

29-3 this round. Mispredicted Ami vs Rika, Mai vs Hanyu, and Sayuri vs Louise. Though, after Topaz 1, I seen it coming that Rika would lose.

[Fate]

Yeah, I didn't know Ami would win against Rika either. WOO! Fate won.

[Signum]

Good results.
I'm happy that Ami won.
Yuki, Haruhi and Fate all won, so there's nothing to complain about.

[Demi.]

31 out of 32 for this match. Mis-predicted Ami vs. Rika, but who would have thought? Who would have thought voters could fail this much?

[Team Rocket Elite]

Pretty good run again. I called 93% of the matches correctly again. The two errors were:

Predicted: Furude Rika (HNKN) [55.9%] vs Kawashima Ami (TD) [44.1%]
Actual: Furude Rika (HNKN) [49.11%] vs Kawashima Ami (TD) [50.89%]
Difference: 6.79

Predicted: Louise Vallière (ZnT) [50.54%] vs Kurata Sayuri (KN) [49.46%]
Actual: Louise Vallière (ZnT) [49.6%] vs Kurata Sayuri (KN) [50.4%]
Difference: 0.94

First miss is completely my fault. I didn't believe Rika's fall was the real deal and didn't adjust her rating after Topaz 1. Big mistake. Rika underperforms again this round. I'm not sure why but Rika is suddenly is a lot weaker than before. She was one of the characters I was hoping to score lots of wins for Shana's SoD rating, too. Rika better get it back together soon if she still wants to make the Top 16.

Second miss was coin filp and my stats called the wrong side. I was less than 1 percentage point off but that was enough to change the results of the match.


Prediction accuracy was absolutely amazing this time. On average I was a mere 1.89 percentage points off the correct result. My accurate prediction percentage so far and much better than 3.37 last round. Only 1 prediction was off by more than 5 percentage points and only 2 over 4 percentage points:

Predicted: Furude Rika (HNKN) [55.9%] vs Kawashima Ami (TD) [44.1%]
Actual: Furude Rika (HNKN) [49.11%] vs Kawashima Ami (TD) [50.89%]
Difference: 6.79

Predicted: Nagato Yuki (SHnY) [67.84%] vs Nagi (KNG) [32.16%]
Actual: Nagato Yuki (SHnY) [72.6%] vs Nagi (KNG) [27.4%]
Difference: 4.76

And it's Rika again. I'm defintely regreting not reducing Rika's ranking.


My stats called 34% or 11 of the 32 matches within 1 percentage point of the actual result. Best one was:

Predicted: Chii (CH) [47.53%] vs Suiseiseki (RM) [52.47%]
Actual: Chii (CH) [47.68%] vs Suiseiseki (RM) [52.32%]
Difference: 0.15


Predicted: Nagato Yuki (SHnY) [67.84%] vs Nagi (KNG) [32.16%]
Actual: Nagato Yuki (SHnY) [72.6%] vs Nagi (KNG) [27.4%]
Difference: 4.76

Last round Haruhi boosted by quite a bit than confirmed the boost with her performance this round. Nice to see Yuki increasing in power again as well.

[chaosprophet]

Ahhh Eva won!!!
And Minori, Yuki and Fate won too!
And Eva won!!!!
And S. Nagi, Yami, Konata and Tohsaka won too!
And Eva won!!!!!
Louise and Kirino lost but... Eva won!!!!!!

Well jokes aside this was a very good round to me. 8 of my top 10 won a match! like if anything else than Eva victory mattered...
I'm surprised Rika lost to Ami... for me Ami wasn't that strong...

[Fate]

31 out of 32 for this match. Mis-predicted Ami vs. Rika, but who would have thought? Who would have thought voters could fail this much?

But we vote too, so we fail too?