RESULTS - Topaz 3

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RESULTS - Topaz 3

Post by Chocola » Sat Apr 18, 2009 8:43 pm

Post your discussions about results here. This post will be updated with graphics when they become available. Results are released 12 hours after the end of the match, which is at 0000 GMT on 19 April (or 5 PM PDT, 8 PM EDT on 18 April). For more time translations, please refer to this thread.

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By PercentageShow
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Cumulative StatisticsShow
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Performance RatingsShow
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Juice's Performance RatingsShow
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Text Results for RagingShow
69.34% - #41 Kurata Sayuri (KN) > #64 Kasuga "Ōsaka" Ayumu (AD)
66.62% - #25 Furude Hanyū (HNKN) > #54 Alice Carroll (ARIA)
64.63% - #05 Shana (SnS) > #14 Furude Rika (HNKN)
64.55% - #08 Aisaka Taiga (TD) > #29 Shinku (RM)
64.45% - #22 Ibuki Fūko (CL) > #61 Vita (MSLN)
64.03% - #32 Maria (HnG) > #51 Kōzuki Kallen (CG)
---
63.84% - #23 Asahina Mikuru (SHnY) > #39 Kamio Misuzu (AIR)
63.42% - #28 Kawasumi Mai (KN) > #47 Nagi (KNG)
63.14% - #02 Suzumiya Haruhi (SHnY) > #17 Hiiragi Tsukasa (LS)
62.88% - #04 Fujibayashi Kyō (CL) > #21 Kinomoto Sakura (CCS)
62.11% - #12 Saber (FSN) > #35 Chii (CH)
61.47% - #56 Misaka Shiori (KN) > #62 Patchouli Knowledge (TMK)
60.91% - #49 Yagami Hayate (MSLN) > #58 Shameimaru Aya (TMK)
60.15% - #30 Kawashima Ami (TD) > #52 Sawatari Makoto (KN)
60.02% - #31 Misaka Mikoto (TAMI) > #55 Chiba Kirino (BB)
59.29% - #13 Hiiragi Kagami (LS) > #18 Ryūgū Rena (HNKN)
57.47% - #03 Fate Testarossa (MSLN) > #34 Holo (OtK)
57.12% - #10 Ichinose Kotomi (CL) > #26 Suiseiseki (RM)
57.10% - #15 Nagato Yuki (SHnY) > #09 Izumi Konata (LS)
56.10% - #01 Sakagami Tomoyo (CL) > #20 Suigintou (RM)
56.00% - #43 Tsukimiya Ayu (KN) > #44 Anya Alstreim (CG)
55.52% - #37 Louise Vallière (ZnT) > #46 Katagiri Yūhi (AISS)
54.82% - #27 Illyasviel von Einzbern (FSN) > #40 Kushieda Minori (TD)
54.50% - #33 Hakurei Reimu (TMK) > #57 Evangeline McDowell (NG)
53.98% - #50 Minase Nayuki (KN) > #63 Kirisame Marisa (TMK)
---
52.50% - #11 Katsura Hinagiku (HnG) > #16 C.C. (CG)
52.37% - #45 Remilia Scarlet (TMK) > #48 Ryōgi Shiki (KnK)
52.27% - #06 Furukawa Nagisa (CL) > #19 Tōsaka Rin (FSN)
52.11% - #38 Konjiki no Yami (TLR) > #36 Sunohara Mei (CL)
50.73% - #59 Kawazoe Tamaki (BB) > #53 Mizunashi Akari (ARIA)
50.71% - #42 Index Prohibitorum (TAMI) > #60 Hinamori Amu (SC)
50.26% - #07 Takamachi Nanoha (MSLN) > #24 Sanzen'in Nagi (HnG)
Decisive Matches (6)
ARENA 32 - #41 Kurata Sayuri (KN) > #64 Kasuga "Ōsaka" Ayumu (AD), 69.34%
ARENA 27 - #25 Furude Hanyū (HNKN) > #54 Alice Carroll (ARIA), 66.62%
ARENA 07 - #05 Shana (SnS) > #14 Furude Rika (HNKN), 64.63%
ARENA 22 - #08 Aisaka Taiga (TD) > #29 Shinku (RM), 64.55%
ARENA 13 - #22 Ibuki Fūko (CL) > #61 Vita (MSLN), 64.45%
ARENA 28 - #32 Maria (HnG) > #51 Kōzuki Kallen (CG), 64.03%

Close Matches (7)
ARENA 15 - #11 Katsura Hinagiku (HnG) > #16 C.C. (CG), 52.50%
ARENA 23 - #45 Remilia Scarlet (TMK) > #48 Ryōgi Shiki (KnK), 52.37%
ARENA 26 - #06 Furukawa Nagisa (CL) > #19 Tōsaka Rin (FSN), 52.27%
ARENA 01 - #38 Konjiki no Yami (TLR) > #36 Sunohara Mei (CL), 52.11%
ARENA 16 - #59 Kawazoe Tamaki (BB) > #53 Mizunashi Akari (ARIA), 50.73%
ARENA 10 - #42 Index Prohibitorum (TAMI) > #60 Hinamori Amu (SC), 50.71%
ARENA 09 - #07 Takamachi Nanoha (MSLN) > #24 Sanzen'in Nagi (HnG), 50.26%

Upsets (3)
ARENA 21 - #15 Nagato Yuki (SHnY) > #09 Izumi Konata (LS), 57.10%
ARENA 01 - #38 Konjiki no Yami (TLR) > #36 Sunohara Mei (CL), 52.11%
ARENA 16 - #59 Kawazoe Tamaki (BB) > #53 Mizunashi Akari (ARIA), 50.73%

Notable Events
-All Kanon characters won except for Sawatari Makoto (KN).
-Furude Rika (HNKN), ranked #15, is the highest ranked character to have a decisive loss.
-Yagami Hayate (MSLN), ranked #46, is the lowest ranked character without a decisive loss.
-Shana (SnS) has 7 decisive wins while no one has 6.

Statistics
-The contestants who increased most in rankings, [+5], are Ibuki Fūko (CL) and Kawazoe Tamaki (BB).
-The contestants who decreased most in rankings, [-5], are Izumi Konata (LS) and Hiiragi Tsukasa (LS).
-The contestant with the best rating performance , [97.00], is Shana (SnS).
-The contestant with the worst rating performance, [6.68], is Kasuga "Ōsaka" Ayumu (AD).
-The total valid votes for Topaz 3 is 3436, 86.0% accepted.
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 3

Post by Fate » Sat Apr 18, 2009 9:10 pm

I heard it'll take a miracle for Horo to beat Fate, hope that person's right about Fate winning. <_<
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 3

Post by chaosprophet » Sun Apr 19, 2009 1:07 am

Well happy that Yami and Louise won... And wow for Yuki by a good amount over Konata! Poor Tohsaka and S.Nagi! Almost there. Eva-chan better luck next time... :tearsad:
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 3

Post by imbehindyou » Sun Apr 19, 2009 1:10 am

Poor Rena-chan and Rika-chama.

As usual, Shana, Clannad, and Haruhi characters cream their opponents (Nagisa and Mei are exceptions)
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 3

Post by Fate » Sun Apr 19, 2009 1:10 am

YAY! Feito won. That really was a close match between Nagi & Nanoha.
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 3

Post by Eater-of-All » Sun Apr 19, 2009 1:10 am

Surprise surprise. I never expected Nagi to be able to come this close to Nanoha. A 14-vote difference between two with more than 15 ranks inbetween, eh.

And it looks like C.C. no longer wields her former glory.
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 3

Post by LazyCanuck » Sun Apr 19, 2009 1:15 am

well i'm extremely happy Hina beat that greenthing

Nagi getting that close to Nanoha is really annoying though..

eh over all expected results/good results
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 3

Post by Meimi132 » Sun Apr 19, 2009 1:17 am

Happy that Yami beat Mei! :woop: And for Fuuko and co. Not for Makoto... damn it... why can't she win more?? Why no love for her???
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 3

Post by maglor » Sun Apr 19, 2009 1:18 am

Eater-of-All wrote:Surprise surprise. I never expected Nagi to be able to come this close to Nanoha. A 14-vote difference between two with more than 15 ranks inbetween, eh.

And it looks like C.C. no longer wields her former glory.
It may be more to do with Hinagiku steadily getting stronger as Hayate 2nd season rolls along.
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 3

Post by Chocola » Sun Apr 19, 2009 1:18 am

Results of my predictions:

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I went 31/32. Aren't you proud of me TRE?
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 3

Post by frustra » Sun Apr 19, 2009 1:21 am

18-12-2 this round, and okay, so Braver Red finally wins her first match...

...at the expense of Aquamarine ;_;

also, H-I-N-A HINAGIKU HAI HAI!
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 3

Post by Eater-of-All » Sun Apr 19, 2009 1:25 am

maglor wrote:
Eater-of-All wrote:Surprise surprise. I never expected Nagi to be able to come this close to Nanoha. A 14-vote difference between two with more than 15 ranks inbetween, eh.

And it looks like C.C. no longer wields her former glory.
It may be more to do with Hinagiku steadily getting stronger as Hayate 2nd season rolls along.
The power of airing series is to be feared indeed.
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 3

Post by kiero » Sun Apr 19, 2009 1:32 am

Argh, predicted 5 of the 7 close matches wrong, and C.C. lost :frown:

That's pretty much the news here, but I guess the new HnG season is helping stuff. Must rewrite algorithms (yeah, I have to agree, they're pretty bad).
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 3

Post by Team Rocket Elite » Sun Apr 19, 2009 1:43 am

I think a pattern is forming. 2 incorrect predictions again:

Predicted: Mizunashi Akari (ARIA) [52.45%] vs Kawazoe Tamaki (BB) [47.55%]
Actual: Mizunashi Akari (ARIA) [49.27%] vs Kawazoe Tamaki (BB) [50.73%]
Difference: 3.18

Predicted: Ryōgi Shiki (KnK) [56.84%] vs Remilia Scarlet (TMK) [43.16%]
Actual: Ryōgi Shiki (KnK) [47.63%] vs Remilia Scarlet (TMK) [52.37%]
Difference: 9.22

Tamaki finally manages a win at the cost of one of my predictions. It was close but I really thought Akari would have taken the win. Especially with how poorly Tamaki did previously in Topaz. Akari just couldn't handle Tamaki's Atomic Fire Blade.

What in the world just happened in Shiki vs Remilia? It's been ages since Touhou anything has looked good. Shiki isn't too strong, but she should have been out of Remilia's league. Back in Aquamarine 3, Remilia might have had the power to beat Shiki but Touhou has declined significantly since then. I'm completely shocked that Remilia managed to pull off this win. I guess this is just another reminder than some matches just completely refuse to go as expected.


A decent overall prediction accuracy. Not nearly as good as 1.89 last round but 2.90 isn't bad and better than 3.37 to rounds ago. A couple really lousy predictions through:

Predicted: Ryōgi Shiki (KnK) [56.84%] vs Remilia Scarlet (TMK) [43.16%]
Actual: Ryōgi Shiki (KnK) [47.63%] vs Remilia Scarlet (TMK) [52.37%]
Difference: 9.22

Predicted: Alice Carroll (ARIA) [40.83%] vs Furude Hanyū (HNKN) [59.17%]
Actual: Alice Carroll (ARIA) [33.38%] vs Furude Hanyū (HNKN) [66.62%]
Difference: 7.46

Predicted: Shinku (RM) [42.45%] vs Aisaka Taiga (TD) [57.55%]
Actual: Shinku (RM) [35.45%] vs Aisaka Taiga (TD) [64.55%]
Difference: 7.00

Remilia defys the odds, massively overperforms and and pulls out a win. Rika is on the decline but Hanyuu actually looks up. Shinku also underperformed by a lot.


My stats called 28% or 9 out of 32 matches within 1 percentage point of the actual result. This include a perfect prediction!

Predicted: Yagami Hayate (MSLN) [60.91%] vs Shameimaru Aya (TMK) [39.09%]
Actual: Yagami Hayate (MSLN) [60.91%] vs Shameimaru Aya (TMK) [39.09%]
Difference: 0.00

It's my first perfect prediction of this year. I wasn't even sure I'd get one let alone this soon. I guess it's technically only accurate the 3 decimal places, but being 0.000492 points away from the actual result is close enough for me. =D


Predicted: Furude Rika (HNKN) [42.12%] vs Shana (SnS) [57.88%]
Actual: Furude Rika (HNKN) [35.37%] vs Shana (SnS) [64.63%]
Difference: 6.75

Is there is reason everybody suddenly hates Rika? It hasn't been that long since Rika scored 46.48% on Kagami. Shana is strong but nearly getting doubled by Shana means Rika is going to have troubles breaking .500. Hanyuu and Rena look fine, why is Rika suddenly taking a dive?

Edit:
I went 31/32. Aren't you proud of me TRE?

Your 31 > My 30
Your 2.74 > My 2.90

It's my loss this time. Remila's performance did me in. I thought we tied on wins but it seems you changed your Shiki prediction to a Remilia one. Remilia was also the one who killed my average percentage off the actual result.
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 3

Post by Motoyama » Sun Apr 19, 2009 2:16 am

Shiki lost to Remilia =/
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 3

Post by Chocola » Sun Apr 19, 2009 2:47 am

TeamRocketElite, that change was unintentional. Actually, I changed column that affected all of my results. Please stand by while I change it back. I did predict Shiki > Remilia.

EDIT: Actually forget it. I don't know what happened but I cannot get back the other percentages I posted on AS. What I did was created new formulas for Topaz 4 and accidentally applied it to my already posted predictions of Topaz 3. I hope you understand.
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 3

Post by Team Rocket Elite » Sun Apr 19, 2009 3:08 am

It's no problem at all. To me, as long as the predictions are made before you see the actual results anything is fair game.
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 3

Post by rainbowizard » Sun Apr 19, 2009 4:19 am

Victory of the Kyoani Empire.
All 3 Rozen Maidens lost... boohoo!
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 3

Post by Demi. » Sun Apr 19, 2009 5:16 am

Nanoha should have won by more than that.

Yay Yami~

And that is all.

PS It's ridiuclous that Shana > Rika has nearly 100 more votes than any other arena. Considering Rika pulled over 1,000 votes, I'de say It's Shana that boosted that Arenas number. So I'm not sure if it was Rika severly underperforming, or if it where Shana fanbois boosting her performance through sheer numbers. She shouldn't have so many votes, considering the popularity of other arenas. :roll:
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Re: RESULTS - Topaz 3

Post by Team Rocket Elite » Sun Apr 19, 2009 5:44 am

This was the actual result:
Furude Rika (HNKN) [35.37%] vs Shana (SnS) [64.63%]


If you docking 100 votes from Shana you get this:
Furude Rika (HNKN) [36.59%] vs Shana (SnS) [63.41%]

It doesn't really change very much.


Arbitarily docking another 200 from Shana(for a total of 300) gives this:
Furude Rika (HNKN) [39.30%] vs Shana (SnS) [60.70%]

Still not great.


Dock another 181 (481 total, ~25% of the votes Shana got) to get to my prediction:
Furude Rika (HNKN) [42.12%] vs Shana (SnS) [57.88%]

And that was still a Rika far less powerful than the Aquamarine Rika.


This isn't simply Shana fans rallying to defeat an opponent. A large part of Rika's support just disappeared.
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