Topaz 8 - 29 April

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sovietmisaki
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Re: Topaz 8 - 29 April

Post by sovietmisaki » Thu Apr 30, 2009 1:25 am

ARENA 01Chii-Izumi Konata
ARENA 02Anya Alstreim-Ryūgū Rena
ARENA 03Kinomoto Sakura-Kamio Misuzu
ARENA 04Shameimaru Aya-Remilia Scarlet
ARENA 05Shinku-Sakagami Tomoyo
ARENA 06Suiseiseki-Misaka Mikoto
ARENA 07Furude RikaAbsKawazoe Tamaki
ARENA 08Chiba Kirino-Konjiki no Yami
ARENA 09Maria-Saber
ARENA 10Nagato Yuki-Misaka Shiori
ARENA 11Louise Vallière-Mizunashi Akari
ARENA 12Suzumiya Haruhi-Patchouli Knowledge
ARENA 13Kawasumi Mai-Evangeline McDowell
ARENA 14Minase Nayuki-Ibuki Fūko
ARENA 15Furukawa Nagisa-Katagiri Yūhi
ARENA 16Tsukimiya Ayu-Furude Hanyū
ARENA 17Hinamori Amu-Aisaka Taiga
ARENA 18Fujibayashi Kyō-Index Prohibitorum
ARENA 19Hiiragi Kagami-Kawashima Ami
ARENA 20Ichinose Kotomi-Nagi
ARENA 21Ryōgi Shiki-Shana
ARENA 22Kasuga “Ōsaka” Ayumu-Hiiragi Tsukasa
ARENA 23C.C.-Kirisame Marisa
ARENA 24Alice Carroll-Takamachi Nanoha
ARENA 25Sanzen'in Nagi-Vita
ARENA 26Sunohara Mei-Holo
ARENA 27Hakurei Reimu-Suigintou
ARENA 28Sawatari Makoto-Kushieda Minori
ARENA 29Fate Testarossa-Illyasviel von Einzbern
ARENA 30Yagami Hayate-Katsura Hinagiku
ARENA 31Kōzuki Kallen-Tōsaka Rin
ARENA 32Asahina Mikuru-Kurata Sayuri
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Re: Topaz 8 - 29 April

Post by Xellos » Thu Apr 30, 2009 2:16 am

ARENA 01Chii-Izumi Konata
ARENA 02Anya Alstreim-Ryūgū Rena
ARENA 03Kinomoto Sakura-Kamio Misuzu
ARENA 04Shameimaru Aya-Remilia Scarlet
ARENA 05Shinku-Sakagami Tomoyo
ARENA 06Suiseiseki-Misaka Mikoto
ARENA 07Furude Rika-Kawazoe Tamaki
ARENA 08Chiba Kirino-Konjiki no Yami
ARENA 09Maria-Saber
ARENA 10Nagato Yuki-Misaka Shiori
ARENA 11Louise Vallière-Mizunashi Akari
ARENA 12Suzumiya Haruhi-Patchouli Knowledge
ARENA 13Kawasumi Mai-Evangeline McDowell
ARENA 14Minase Nayuki-Ibuki Fūko
ARENA 15Furukawa Nagisa-Katagiri Yūhi
ARENA 16Tsukimiya Ayu-Furude Hanyū
ARENA 17Hinamori Amu-Aisaka Taiga
ARENA 18Fujibayashi Kyō-Index Prohibitorum
ARENA 19Hiiragi Kagami-Kawashima Ami
ARENA 20Ichinose Kotomi-Nagi
ARENA 21Ryōgi Shiki-Shana
ARENA 22Kasuga “Ōsaka” Ayumu-Hiiragi Tsukasa
ARENA 23C.C.-Kirisame Marisa
ARENA 24Alice Carroll-Takamachi Nanoha
ARENA 25Sanzen'in Nagi-Vita
ARENA 26Sunohara Mei-Holo
ARENA 27Hakurei Reimu-Suigintou
ARENA 28Sawatari Makoto-Kushieda Minori
ARENA 29Fate Testarossa-Illyasviel von Einzbern
ARENA 30Yagami Hayate-Katsura Hinagiku
ARENA 31Kōzuki Kallen-Tōsaka Rin
ARENA 32Asahina Mikuru-Kurata Sayuri
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Re: Topaz 8 - 29 April

Post by Ahasuerus » Thu Apr 30, 2009 3:54 am

Votes for Round 8 of Topaz:
ARENA 01Chii-Izumi Konata
ARENA 02Anya Alstreim-Ryūgū Rena
ARENA 03Kinomoto Sakura-Kamio Misuzu
ARENA 04Shameimaru Aya-Remilia Scarlet
ARENA 05Shinku-Sakagami Tomoyo
ARENA 06Suiseiseki-Misaka Mikoto
ARENA 07Furude Rika-Kawazoe Tamaki
ARENA 08Chiba Kirino-Konjiki no Yami
ARENA 09Maria-Saber
ARENA 10Nagato Yuki-Misaka Shiori
ARENA 11Louise Vallière-Mizunashi Akari
ARENA 12Suzumiya Haruhi-Patchouli Knowledge
ARENA 13Kawasumi Mai-Evangeline McDowell
ARENA 14Minase Nayuki-Ibuki Fūko
ARENA 15Furukawa Nagisa-Katagiri Yūhi
ARENA 16Tsukimiya Ayu-Furude Hanyū
ARENA 17Hinamori Amu-Aisaka Taiga
ARENA 18Fujibayashi Kyō-Index Prohibitorum
ARENA 19Hiiragi Kagami-Kawashima Ami
ARENA 20Ichinose Kotomi-Nagi
ARENA 21Ryōgi Shiki-Shana
ARENA 22Kasuga “Ōsaka” Ayumu-Hiiragi Tsukasa
ARENA 23C.C.-Kirisame Marisa
ARENA 24Alice Carroll-Takamachi Nanoha
ARENA 25Sanzen'in Nagi-Vita
ARENA 26Sunohara Mei-Holo
ARENA 27Hakurei Reimu-Suigintou
ARENA 28Sawatari Makoto-Kushieda Minori
ARENA 29Fate Testarossa-Illyasviel von Einzbern
ARENA 30Yagami Hayate-Katsura Hinagiku
ARENA 31Kōzuki Kallen-Tōsaka Rin
ARENA 32Asahina Mikuru-Kurata Sayuri
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Re: Topaz 8 - 29 April

Post by chaosprophet » Thu Apr 30, 2009 4:05 am

ARENA 01Chii-Izumi Konata
ARENA 02Anya AlstreimAbsRyūgū Rena
ARENA 03Kinomoto Sakura-Kamio Misuzu
ARENA 04Shameimaru Aya-Remilia Scarlet
ARENA 05Shinku-Sakagami Tomoyo
ARENA 06Suiseiseki-Misaka Mikoto
ARENA 07Furude Rika-Kawazoe Tamaki
ARENA 08Chiba Kirino-Konjiki no Yami
ARENA 09Maria-Saber
ARENA 10Nagato Yuki-Misaka Shiori
ARENA 11Louise Vallière-Mizunashi Akari
ARENA 12Suzumiya Haruhi-Patchouli Knowledge
ARENA 13Kawasumi Mai-Evangeline McDowell
ARENA 14Minase Nayuki-Ibuki Fūko
ARENA 15Furukawa Nagisa-Katagiri Yūhi
ARENA 16Tsukimiya Ayu-Furude Hanyū
ARENA 17Hinamori Amu-Aisaka Taiga
ARENA 18Fujibayashi Kyō-Index Prohibitorum
ARENA 19Hiiragi Kagami-Kawashima Ami
ARENA 20Ichinose Kotomi-Nagi
ARENA 21Ryōgi Shiki-Shana
ARENA 22Kasuga “Ōsaka” Ayumu-Hiiragi Tsukasa
ARENA 23C.C.AbsKirisame Marisa
ARENA 24Alice Carroll-Takamachi Nanoha
ARENA 25Sanzen'in Nagi-Vita
ARENA 26Sunohara Mei-Holo
ARENA 27Hakurei Reimu-Suigintou
ARENA 28Sawatari Makoto-Kushieda Minori
ARENA 29Fate Testarossa-Illyasviel von Einzbern
ARENA 30Yagami Hayate-Katsura Hinagiku
ARENA 31Kōzuki Kallen-Tōsaka Rin
ARENA 32Asahina MikuruAbsKurata Sayuri
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Re: Topaz 8 - 29 April

Post by Marinara » Thu Apr 30, 2009 6:08 am

ARENA 01Chii-Izumi Konata
ARENA 02Anya Alstreim-Ryūgū Rena
ARENA 03Kinomoto Sakura-Kamio Misuzu
ARENA 04Shameimaru Aya-Remilia Scarlet
ARENA 05Shinku-Sakagami Tomoyo
ARENA 06Suiseiseki-Misaka Mikoto
ARENA 07Furude Rika-Kawazoe Tamaki
ARENA 08Chiba Kirino-Konjiki no Yami
ARENA 09Maria-Saber
ARENA 10Nagato Yuki-Misaka Shiori
ARENA 11Louise Vallière-Mizunashi Akari
ARENA 12Suzumiya Haruhi-Patchouli Knowledge
ARENA 13Kawasumi Mai-Evangeline McDowell
ARENA 14Minase Nayuki-Ibuki Fūko
ARENA 15Furukawa Nagisa-Katagiri Yūhi
ARENA 16Tsukimiya Ayu-Furude Hanyū
ARENA 17Hinamori Amu-Aisaka Taiga
ARENA 18Fujibayashi Kyō-Index Prohibitorum
ARENA 19Hiiragi Kagami-Kawashima Ami
ARENA 20Ichinose Kotomi-Nagi
ARENA 21Ryōgi Shiki-Shana
ARENA 22Kasuga “Ōsaka” Ayumu-Hiiragi Tsukasa
ARENA 23C.C.-Kirisame Marisa
ARENA 24Alice Carroll-Takamachi Nanoha
ARENA 25Sanzen'in Nagi-Vita
ARENA 26Sunohara Mei-Holo
ARENA 27Hakurei Reimu-Suigintou
ARENA 28Sawatari Makoto-Kushieda Minori
ARENA 29Fate Testarossa-Illyasviel von Einzbern
ARENA 30Yagami Hayate-Katsura Hinagiku
ARENA 31Kōzuki Kallen-Tōsaka Rin
ARENA 32Asahina Mikuru-Kurata Sayuri
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Re: Topaz 8 - 29 April

Post by Ari » Thu Apr 30, 2009 6:16 am

ARENA 01Chii-Izumi Konata
ARENA 02Anya Alstreim-Ryūgū Rena
ARENA 03Kinomoto Sakura-Kamio Misuzu
ARENA 04Shameimaru Aya-Remilia Scarlet
ARENA 05Shinku-Sakagami Tomoyo
ARENA 06Suiseiseki-Misaka Mikoto
ARENA 07Furude Rika-Kawazoe Tamaki
ARENA 08Chiba Kirino-Konjiki no Yami
ARENA 09Maria-Saber
ARENA 10Nagato Yuki-Misaka Shiori
ARENA 11Louise Vallière-Mizunashi Akari
ARENA 12Suzumiya Haruhi-Patchouli Knowledge
ARENA 13Kawasumi Mai-Evangeline McDowell
ARENA 14Minase Nayuki-Ibuki Fūko
ARENA 15Furukawa Nagisa-Katagiri Yūhi
ARENA 16Tsukimiya Ayu-Furude Hanyū
ARENA 17Hinamori Amu-Aisaka Taiga
ARENA 18Fujibayashi Kyō-Index Prohibitorum
ARENA 19Hiiragi Kagami-Kawashima Ami
ARENA 20Ichinose Kotomi-Nagi
ARENA 21Ryōgi Shiki-Shana
ARENA 22Kasuga “Ōsaka” Ayumu-Hiiragi Tsukasa
ARENA 23C.C.-Kirisame Marisa
ARENA 24Alice Carroll-Takamachi Nanoha
ARENA 25Sanzen'in Nagi-Vita
ARENA 26Sunohara Mei-Holo
ARENA 27Hakurei Reimu-Suigintou
ARENA 28Sawatari Makoto-Kushieda Minori
ARENA 29Fate Testarossa-Illyasviel von Einzbern
ARENA 30Yagami Hayate-Katsura Hinagiku
ARENA 31Kōzuki Kallen-Tōsaka Rin
ARENA 32Asahina Mikuru-Kurata Sayuri
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Re: Topaz 8 - 29 April

Post by Smasher » Thu Apr 30, 2009 7:47 am

ARENA 01Chii-Izumi Konata
ARENA 02Anya Alstreim-Ryūgū Rena
ARENA 03Kinomoto SakuraAbsKamio Misuzu
ARENA 04Shameimaru AyaAbsRemilia Scarlet
ARENA 05Shinku-Sakagami Tomoyo
ARENA 06Suiseiseki-Misaka Mikoto
ARENA 07Furude Rika-Kawazoe Tamaki
ARENA 08Chiba KirinoAbsKonjiki no Yami
ARENA 09Maria-Saber
ARENA 10Nagato Yuki-Misaka Shiori
ARENA 11Louise Vallière-Mizunashi Akari
ARENA 12Suzumiya Haruhi-Patchouli Knowledge
ARENA 13Kawasumi Mai-Evangeline McDowell
ARENA 14Minase Nayuki-Ibuki Fūko
ARENA 15Furukawa Nagisa-Katagiri Yūhi
ARENA 16Tsukimiya Ayu-Furude Hanyū
ARENA 17Hinamori Amu-Aisaka Taiga
ARENA 18Fujibayashi Kyō-Index Prohibitorum
ARENA 19Hiiragi Kagami-Kawashima Ami
ARENA 20Ichinose Kotomi-Nagi
ARENA 21Ryōgi Shiki-Shana
ARENA 22Kasuga “Ōsaka” Ayumu-Hiiragi Tsukasa
ARENA 23C.C.-Kirisame Marisa
ARENA 24Alice Carroll-Takamachi Nanoha
ARENA 25Sanzen'in Nagi-Vita
ARENA 26Sunohara Mei-Holo
ARENA 27Hakurei ReimuAbsSuigintou
ARENA 28Sawatari Makoto-Kushieda Minori
ARENA 29Fate Testarossa-Illyasviel von Einzbern
ARENA 30Yagami Hayate-Katsura Hinagiku
ARENA 31Kōzuki KallenAbsTōsaka Rin
ARENA 32Asahina Mikuru-Kurata Sayuri
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Re: Topaz 8 - 29 April

Post by Demi. » Thu Apr 30, 2009 1:15 pm

Only predictions today~ My votes should be pretty obvious by now, anyways.


Konata > Chii
Rena > Anya
Sakura > Misuzu
Remilia > Aya
Tomoyo > Shinku
Suiseiseki > Mikoto
Rika > Tamaki
Yami > Kirino
Saber > Maria
Yuki > Shiori
Louise > Akari
Haruhi > Patchy
Mai > Evangeline
Fuuko > Nayuki
Nagisa > Yuuhi
Hanyuu > Ayu
Taiga > Amu
Kyou > Index
Kagami > Ami
Kotomi > Nagi
Shana > Shiki
Tsukasa > Osaka
C.C. > Marisa
Nanoha > Alice
Sanzen'in > Vita
Horo > Mei
Suigintou > Reimu
Minori > Makoro
Feito-chan > Illya
Hinagiku > Hayate
Rin > Kallen
Mikuru > Sayuri
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Re: Topaz 8 - 29 April

Post by Chocola » Thu Apr 30, 2009 4:53 pm

I did not change my formula yet so this might be off.

ARENA 01 - Izumi Konata (LS) 61.74% > Chii (CH) 38.26%
ARENA 02 - Ryūgū Rena (HNKN) 62.08% > Anya Alstreim (CG) 37.92%
ARENA 03 - Kinomoto Sakura (CCS) 56.88% > Kamio Misuzu (AIR) 43.12%
ARENA 04 - Remilia Scarlet (TMK) 57.31% > Shameimaru Aya (TMK) 42.69%
ARENA 05 - Sakagami Tomoyo (CL) 63.33% > Shinku (RM) 36.67%
ARENA 06 - Suiseiseki (RM) 51.77% > Misaka Mikoto (TAMI) 48.23%
ARENA 07 - Furude Rika (HNKN) 65.60% > Kawazoe Tamaki (BB) 34.40%
ARENA 08 - Konjiki no Yami (TLR) 65.34% > Chiba Kirino (BB) 34.66%
ARENA 09 - Saber (FSN) 56.31% > Maria (HnG) 43.69%
ARENA 10 - Nagato Yuki (SHnY) 70.73% > Misaka Shiori (KN) 29.27%
ARENA 11 - Louise Vallière (ZnT) 59.52% > Mizunashi Akari (ARIA) 40.48%
ARENA 12 - Suzumiya Haruhi (SHnY) 76.87% > Patchouli Knowledge (TMK) 23.13%
ARENA 13 - Kawasumi Mai (KN) 60.66% > Evangeline McDowell (NG) 39.34%
ARENA 14 - Ibuki Fūko (CL) 60.15% > Minase Nayuki (KN) 39.85%
ARENA 15 - Furukawa Nagisa (CL) 65.43% > Katagiri Yūhi (AISS) 34.57%
ARENA 16 - Furude Hanyū (HNKN) 54.62% > Tsukimiya Ayu (KN) 45.38%
ARENA 17 - Aisaka Taiga (TD) 71.18% > Hinamori Amu (SC) 28.82%
ARENA 18 - Fujibayashi Kyō (CL) 69.79% > Index Prohibitorum (TAMI) 30.21%
ARENA 19 - Hiiragi Kagami (LS) 61.80% > Kawashima Ami (TD) 38.20%
ARENA 20 - Ichinose Kotomi (CL) 67.57% > Nagi (KNG) 32.43%
ARENA 21 - Shana (SnS) 73.27% > Ryōgi Shiki (KnK) 26.73%
ARENA 22 - Hiiragi Tsukasa (LS) 75.39% > Kasuga "Ōsaka" Ayumu (AD) 24.61%
ARENA 23 - C.C. (CG) 64.65% > Kirisame Marisa (TMK) 35.35%
ARENA 24 - Takamachi Nanoha (MSLN) 68.35% > Alice Carroll (ARIA) 31.65%
ARENA 25 - Sanzen'in Nagi (HnG) 63.16% > Vita (MSLN) 36.84%
ARENA 26 - Holo (OtK) 53.90% > Sunohara Mei (CL) 46.10%
ARENA 27 - Suigintou (RM) 61.37% > Hakurei Reimu (TMK) 38.63%
ARENA 28 - Kushieda Minori (TD) 60.83% > Sawatari Makoto (KN) 39.17%
ARENA 29 - Fate Testarossa (MSLN) 58.02% > Illyasviel von Einzbern (FSN) 41.98%
ARENA 30 - Katsura Hinagiku (HnG) 64.60% > Yagami Hayate (MSLN) 35.40%
ARENA 31 - Tōsaka Rin (FSN) 65.45% > Kōzuki Kallen (CG) 34.55%
ARENA 32 - Asahina Mikuru (SHnY) 59.38% > Kurata Sayuri (KN) 40.62%
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Re: Topaz 8 - 29 April

Post by Team Rocket Elite » Thu Apr 30, 2009 6:38 pm

Comparison to KholdStare88's predictionsShow
Our three largest disagreements:

TRE: Shameimaru Aya (TMK) [47.66%] vs Remilia Scarlet (TMK) [52.34%]
KS: ARENA 04 - Remilia Scarlet (TMK) 57.31% > Shameimaru Aya (TMK) 42.69%
Difference: 4.97

TRE: Furukawa Nagisa (CL) [61.78%] vs Katagiri Yūhi (AISS) [38.22%]
KS: ARENA 15 - Furukawa Nagisa (CL) 65.43% > Katagiri Yūhi (AISS) 34.57%
Difference: 3.65

TRE: Yagami Hayate (MSLN) [38.99%] vs Katsura Hinagiku (HnG) [61.01%]
KS: ARENA 30 - Katsura Hinagiku (HnG) 64.60% > Yagami Hayate (MSLN) 35.40%
Difference: 3.59

We didn't have any large disagreements this time. The first match is a Touhou SFF match. One side will likely win big, but I'm not sure which one. I don't think there was any clear favorite between Aya and Remilia in the overall Touhou fanbase. Remilia has done better than Aya in matches against other character but I'm not sure that she will actually beat Aya.

A few rounds ago Nagisa would hit 65% with ease. Now, I'm not so sure. Nagisa has fallen a lot since the start of Topaz. KS and I are both calling for an easy Nagisa win, but I don't think Nagisa still has the power to put up that large of a win on Yuuhi.

I'm likely gvinig Hayate more credit than KS is for the third match. I think Hayate will kepp Hinagiku below 60%. The new Nanoha manga might help a bit as well even though I'm not even sure Hayate has shown up in it yet.

In terms of winners, we're thinking the exact same way. Wednesday matches tend to have few upsets, but I guess they still happen.
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