RESULTS - Topaz 8

[Chocola]

Post your discussions about results here. This post will be updated with graphics when they become available. Results are released 12 hours after the end of the match, which is at 0000 GMT on 1 May (or 5 PM PDT, 8 PM EDT on 30 April). For more time translations, please refer to this thread.

By PercentageShow

Cumulative StatisticsShow

Performance RatingsShow

Juice's Performance RatingsShow

Text Results for RagingShow

74.04% - #02 Suzumiya Haruhi (SHnY) > #63 Patchouli Knowledge (TMK)
70.43% - #20 Hiiragi Tsukasa (LS) > #64 Kasuga "Ōsaka" Ayumu (AD)
69.21% - #22 Tōsaka Rin (FSN) > #50 Kōzuki Kallen (CG)
68.87% - #09 Nagato Yuki (SHnY) > #55 Misaka Shiori (KN)
66.76% - #05 Shana (SnS) > #51 Ryōgi Shiki (KnK)
---
66.25% - #11 Aisaka Taiga (TD) > #62 Hinamori Amu (SC)
65.50% - #03 Fujibayashi Kyō (CL) > #46 Index Prohibitorum (TAMI)
65.04% - #37 Konjiki no Yami (TLR) > #59 Chiba Kirino (BB)
64.85% - #10 Takamachi Nanoha (MSLN) > #52 Alice Carroll (ARIA)
64.37% - #14 Ichinose Kotomi (CL) > #48 Nagi (KNG)
63.51% - #17 Asahina Mikuru (SHnY) > #43 Kurata Sayuri (KN)
61.76% - #08 Hiiragi Kagami (LS) > #32 Kawashima Ami (TD)
61.53% - #21 Sanzen'in Nagi (HnG) > #58 Vita (MSLN)
61.44% - #18 Ryūgū Rena (HNKN) > #49 Anya Alstreim (CG)
61.22% - #19 Suigintou (RM) > #34 Hakurei Reimu (TMK)
61.17% - #15 Furude Rika (HNKN) > #54 Kawazoe Tamaki (BB)
60.80% - #06 Katsura Hinagiku (HnG) > #42 Yagami Hayate (MSLN)
60.77% - #24 C.C. (CG) > #56 Kirisame Marisa (TMK)
59.40% - #12 Izumi Konata (LS) > #36 Chii (CH)
59.31% - #07 Furukawa Nagisa (CL) > #47 Katagiri Yūhi (AISS)
58.44% - #40 Kushieda Minori (TD) > #53 Sawatari Makoto (KN)
58.29% - #39 Louise Vallière (ZnT) > #57 Mizunashi Akari (ARIA)
58.28% - #23 Ibuki Fūko (CL) > #45 Minase Nayuki (KN)
58.01% - #04 Fate Testarossa (MSLN) > #28 Illyasviel von Einzbern (FSN)
56.33% - #44 Remilia Scarlet (TMK) > #60 Shameimaru Aya (TMK)
55.73% - #33 Kawasumi Mai (KN) > #61 Evangeline McDowell (NG)
---
54.99% - #16 Kinomoto Sakura (CCS) > #35 Kamio Misuzu (AIR)
54.88% - #13 Saber (FSN) > #30 Maria (HnG)
54.60% - #01 Sakagami Tomoyo (CL) > #29 Shinku (RM)
53.68% - #27 Holo (OtK) > #38 Sunohara Mei (CL)
51.73% - #31 Suiseiseki (RM) > #26 Misaka Mikoto (TAMI)
50.55% - #25 Furude Hanyū (HNKN) > #41 Tsukimiya Ayu (KN)

Decisive Matches (5)
ARENA 12 - #02 Suzumiya Haruhi (SHnY) > #63 Patchouli Knowledge (TMK), 74.04%
ARENA 22 - #20 Hiiragi Tsukasa (LS) > #64 Kasuga "Ōsaka" Ayumu (AD), 70.43%
ARENA 31 - #22 Tōsaka Rin (FSN) > #50 Kōzuki Kallen (CG), 69.21%
ARENA 10 - #09 Nagato Yuki (SHnY) > #55 Misaka Shiori (KN), 68.87%
ARENA 21 - #05 Shana (SnS) > #51 Ryōgi Shiki (KnK), 66.76%

Close Matches (6)
ARENA 03 - #16 Kinomoto Sakura (CCS) > #35 Kamio Misuzu (AIR), 54.99%
ARENA 09 - #13 Saber (FSN) > #30 Maria (HnG), 54.88%
ARENA 05 - #01 Sakagami Tomoyo (CL) > #29 Shinku (RM), 54.60%
ARENA 26 - #27 Holo (OtK) > #38 Sunohara Mei (CL), 53.68%
ARENA 06 - #31 Suiseiseki (RM) > #26 Misaka Mikoto (TAMI), 51.73%
ARENA 16 - #25 Furude Hanyū (HNKN) > #41 Tsukimiya Ayu (KN), 50.55%

Upsets (1)
ARENA 06 - #31 Suiseiseki (RM) > #26 Misaka Mikoto (TAMI), 51.73%

Notable Events
-The top 4 contenders for the Topaz Necklace are Hiiragi Kagami (LS), Nagato Yuki (SHnY), Fate Testarossa (MSLN), Sakagami Tomoyo (CL).
-Remilia Scarlet (TMK) is the first Topaz winner to have received under 1000 votes.
-Shana (SnS) received another decisive win, which means that 52.9% of Shana's matches result in a decisive win for Shana.
-ISML Staff has lots of drama.

Statistics
-The contestants who increased most in rankings, [+4], are Kawasumi Mai (KN), Louise Vallière (ZnT), and Suiseiseki (RM).
-The contestants who decreased most in rankings, [-3], are Maria (HnG) and Shinku (RM).
-The contestant with the best rating performance , [96.28], is Shana (SnS).
-The contestant with the worst rating performance, [9.28], is Kasuga "Ōsaka" Ayumu (AD).
-The total valid votes for Topaz 8 is 3150, 88.6% accepted.

[Meimi132]

Woooooo!! Can't wait!

And omg... its May now in the UK.... weird....

[Fate]

YAY, FATE WON!!! ^_^;

[Motoyama]

ARENA 12 - #02 Suzumiya Haruhi (SHnY) > #63 Patchouli Knowledge (TMK), 74.04%
lmfao.

[imbehindyou]

ARENA 05 - #01 Sakagami Tomoyo (CL) > #29 Shinku (RM), 54.60%

There's hope in this world!

Add:
Rika won! Rena won! Hanyuu won! Gin-sama won! Desu won!
Today = good.

[Signum]

What a striking victory for Haruhi and Yuki. Just how I like it.
Good results.

[Meimi132]

Fuuko, Nagisa, Kotomim, Sakura and Yami won, so YAY! But Ayu, Makoto, Chii, Nagi lost... And Ayu lost by 23 votes... DANG NABBIT!!!

[Demi.]

Blah, Haruhi and Yuki. They make me rage.

Even Clannad characters have their fading moments...

[Team Rocket Elite]

100% accuracy on winners today. Wednesday matches do tend to be easier to call.

In terms of average distance from the correct results my stats were 2.28 off. That's a tiny bit better than last round. I had one particularly bad prediction but the rest were pretty solid.

Predicted: Shinku (RM) [37.24%] vs Sakagami Tomoyo (CL) [62.76%]
Actual: Shinku (RM) [45.4%] vs Sakagami Tomoyo (CL) [54.6%]
Difference: 8.15

Predicted: Asahina Mikuru (SHnY) [58.72%] vs Kurata Sayuri (KN) [41.28%]
Actual: Asahina Mikuru (SHnY) [63.51%] vs Kurata Sayuri (KN) [36.49%]
Difference: 4.79

Predicted: Kōzuki Kallen (CG) [35.05%] vs Tōsaka Rin (FSN) [64.95%]
Actual: Kōzuki Kallen (CG) [30.79%] vs Tōsaka Rin (FSN) [69.21%]
Difference: 4.26

That's a huge underperformance by Tomoyo and not a performance she wants a match before going up against Nagato Yuki to defend her perfect record. Hopefully this was just a one time fluke.

Mikuru is bouncing back after her underperformance against Shana. Perhaps she is back on the rise.

Kallen underperformed in her match. You can really draw to much from huge blowouts but perhaps Rin is going on the rise as well.


I had 9 predictions within 1% of the actual result. My best prediction was:

Predicted: Suiseiseki (RM) [51.6%] vs Misaka Mikoto (TAMI) [48.4%]
Actual: Suiseiseki (RM) [51.73%] vs Misaka Mikoto (TAMI) [48.27%]
Difference: 0.13



Predicted: Ryōgi Shiki (KnK) [29.16%] vs Shana (SnS) [70.84%]
Actual: Ryōgi Shiki (KnK) [33.24%] vs Shana (SnS) [66.76%]
Difference: 4.08

Predicted: Hiiragi Kagami (LS) [59.12%] vs Kawashima Ami (TD) [40.88%]
Actual: Hiiragi Kagami (LS) [61.76%] vs Kawashima Ami (TD) [38.24%]
Difference: 2.64

Underperformance by Shana and overperformance by Kagami. Shana is still rated higher by my stats but this should put Kagami within striking distance of Shana. If Kagami can pull off a win, the Topaz Necklace is all but hers.

[Chocola]

Yeah, I won't post my predictions today since I'm busy. I'll say that TRE beat me.

[Eater-of-All]

Pretty predictable round, right down to that upset. I'm pleasantly surprised at how well Ayu fared this round, though it's probably just Hanyuu slipping a little....

[frustra]

wow, i thought maria would do better against saber. derp.

[Demi.]

Really? I thought she would do worse. Remember, Saber's only lost twice, and both times where to characters ranked 4th or higher. And Maria's the weakest of the three HnG characters...

[frustra]

i guess my expectations of her were high. then i remembered this is ISML

[Demi.]

Oh ya, forget this is ISML and you will no doubt despair.

[chaosprophet]

This was a good round for me. Only two of my top ten lost: Kirino and Eva-chan.

I'm a little worried with how well Ilya end up doing against Fate this round... (more than I expected at least...)

[Demi.]

Retrospectively, that's the second highest % Illya's lost by. The first highest highest was to Haruhi(predictable) by 60%.

Hinagiku only managed about 54% on her.

Of course, this doesn't change the fact Fate will lose to Haruhi, but Fate won vs. Illya by a pretty high percent if you put it into perspective.