2012 Topaz Necklace Discussion

[Deathscyther]

(1) Who do you wish that will win the 2012 Topaz Necklace? Who do you feel to be most deserving of 2012 Topaz necklace?

Shana

(2) Who do you think will win the 2012 Topaz Necklace? Who will be the contenders and who will be the pretenders for the Topaz necklace?

The winner of the Shana-Taiga match. I think Shana will beat Taiga here though. Taiga has really bad luck to have to face Shana here. Lots of people want one of the girls winning all the necklaces and Shana has the best chance to make this happen, since she only needs two more. So I think Shana will gather lots of votes from people who usually wouldn't vote for her. I think that this might have played a part in Shana's loss against Mio as well. I think Shana lost some votes during that match because of said reason. Although Mio surely got a boost because of the movie, I think Shana would have beaten her if Shana had already won a necklace this year.

I think Taiga would have had a good chance at beating Shana if she had faced her in another period.

[xcrossfacekillahx]

(2) Who do you think will win the 2012 Topaz Necklace? Who will be the contenders and who will be the pretenders for the Topaz necklace?

The winner of the Shana-Taiga match. I think Shana will beat Taiga here though. Taiga has really bad luck to have to face Shana here. Lots of people want one of the girls winning all the necklaces and Shana has the best chance to make this happen, since she only needs two more. So I think Shana will gather lots of votes from people who usually wouldn't vote for her. I think that this might have played a part in Shana's loss against Mio as well. I think Shana lost some votes during that match because of said reason. Although Mio surely got a boost because of the movie, I think Shana would have beaten her if Shana had already won a necklace this year.

I think Taiga would have had a good chance at beating Shana if she had faced her in another period.

Which is why I think the winner will have an advantage in the necklace match. What I think it would be like.

Stella Group (By SDO)

Shana/Taiga (winner) 7-0
Misaka Mikoto 7-0*
Yuki/Mio (winner) 7-0
Saber 6-1
Nakano Azusa 6-1
-----------------------------------------------------
Shana/Taiga (loser) 6-1
Yuki/Mio (loser) 6-1

* Has a necklace already

[Shmion84]

Stella Division
Aisaka Taiga - 21 - 103 #1
Misaka Mikoto - 21 - 90 (Ruby Necklace)
Nagato Yuki (or Suzumiya Haruhi, not Akiyama Mio) - 21 - 85 #2
Nakano Azusa - 18.980 - 76 #3
Saber - 18.957 - 84 #4

First off, why would Mio not be included in this list? Seeing as she managed to defeat Shana (ignoring possible tactical voting just so Shana can have a shot at the Topaz Necklace) and Azusa managed to defeat Yuki, I'd say Mio has a good chance of winning her match-up against Yuki.
Secondly, why isn't Shana on the list? Looking at the statistics, Shana has dominated Taiga in their previous two meetings. Even though Taiga is doing better than Shana right now in terms of wins/losses, battles which involve one seiyuu, similar to intra-series battles, generally don't align with season statistics.

This calculation is based only on 2012 league with minimal intraseries corrections (points after Emerald 7: Aisaka Taiga - 1100, Misaka Mikoto - 1091... Hecate - 912). I've always chosen the most probable scenario. Shana could win against Taiga. I thought Taiga's win is more probable than Shana's win. Same procedure for Yuki vs Haruhi vs Mio.

[kukimunstir]

(1) Who do you wish that will win the 2012 Topaz Necklace? Who do you feel to be most deserving of 2012 Topaz necklace?
Shana

(2) Who do you think will win the 2012 Topaz Necklace? Who will be the contenders and who will be the pretenders for the Topaz necklace?
Shana

[Cross]

1 Azusa
2 Azusa.I still have my hope.

[Alexander]

1. Kasugano Sora

[CureRainbow]

1.) Shana, Elsie, or Yuno.
2.) Probably Shana or Taiga. Would be pretty awesome if Taiga did pull a Mikoto this period, though.

[10ZHAbin]

1) Who do you wish that will win the 2012 Topaz Necklace?
Saber, she's pretty good and she never have a necklace before, plus that the color of Topaz is similar to her hair color. I really like her and will vote for her although she's not my favorite character.
Who do you feel to be most deserving of 2012 Topaz necklace?
Shana

(2) Who do you think will win the 2012 Topaz Necklace?
Nagato Yuki or Shana. Yuki managed to beat Misaka Mikoto in a regular contests this year (but which I cannot remember because there is so many) who is so far the number 1 on the Stella Division Overall Standings. But Shana is looking good too.

Who will be the contenders and who will be the pretenders for the Topaz necklace?
I am not sure about this one.

[Shmion84]

historical predictionShow

Who will be the contenders and who will be the pretenders for the Topaz necklace?
(Estimated Points & SDO)
Nova Division
Tachibana Kanade - 21 - 91 (Aquamarine necklace)
Yui - 21 - 87.9 #1
Eucliwood Hellscythe - 21 - 87.5 (Emerald necklace)
Kanzaki H. Aria - 18.963 - 68 #2
Kashiwazaki Sena - 18.922 - 69 #3
Hasegawa Kobato - 18.914 - 67 #4 (< Saber)
Stella Division
Aisaka Taiga - 21 - 103 #1
Misaka Mikoto - 21 - 90 (Ruby Necklace)
Nagato Yuki (or Suzumiya Haruhi, not Akiyama Mio) - 21 - 85 #2
Nakano Azusa - 18.980 - 76 #3
Saber - 18.957 - 84 #4

So I guessed 3 of 4 Nova and 1 of 3 Stella contenders. Nova was far more predictable than Stella.

[Jeffrey-sama]

Assuming the necklace round has ~10k votes and Akiyama Mio obtains X% votes, the other contenders would need the following number of votes in comparison to Mio in order to win the necklace:

Yui - 27.132
- 47 more votes than Akiyama Mio

Shana - 24.698
- 290 more votes than Akiyama Mio
- 244 more votes than Yui

Nagato Yuki - 21.310
- 629 more votes than Akiyama Mio
- 583 more votes than Yui
- 339 more votes than Shana

I think the question now is, will Shana be able to hit that 290-vote mark?

Am I correct?

[xcrossfacekillahx]

I don't mind Mio winning the necklace if it's for her.

[DurianDude]

It's gonna be awfully close. I don't know if Shana can pull this one off.

[Jeffrey-sama]

It's gonna be awfully close. I don't know if Shana can pull this one off.

If Taiga were in the necklace match, I'd probably agree.
But given the lack of vote-splitting and the anxious Shana fans who'd like to see their favourite complete her collection, I won't be surprised if it doesn't end up being close. That said, I obviously want Mio to win. (: