RESULTS: 2017 Topaz 15

User avatar
Lulu
[Blame maglor]
[Blame maglor]
Posts: 1149
Joined: Mon Sep 29, 2014 4:37 pm
Badges:
ImageImage
Worships: Kanojo
Melon Pan: 26
2018 Female Favorite: Kanna Kamui
2018 Male Favorite: Dazai Osamu
Location: Laniakea

Re: RESULTS: 2017 Topaz 15

Post by Lulu » Fri Jun 30, 2017 11:23 am

Shit result.
User avatar
sorano
Mahou shoujo
Mahou shoujo
Posts: 12
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 5:31 pm
Melon Pan: 50

Re: RESULTS: 2017 Topaz 15

Post by sorano » Fri Jun 30, 2017 1:17 pm

There are thousands of people vote in this match,and no one can believe that Asuna only get 950 ballots, Hope that ISML staff can give a fair result!
User avatar
wakamurasaki
Season faery
Season faery
Posts: 96
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2017 2:34 pm
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: Linali Lee
Location: china

Re: RESULTS: 2017 Topaz 15

Post by wakamurasaki » Fri Jun 30, 2017 1:52 pm

Asuna's friends have worked hard and are not willing to accept such a result, and of course I would like illya to see the true level of my favorite character!
瑠璃の鸟示した星の兆し
SpoilerShow
刀剣乱舞-Online-
ToukenRanbu-Online-
刀剑乱舞-Online-
User avatar
Veon
Salamander
Salamander
Posts: 618
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2014 1:07 pm
Badges:
Image
Melon Pan: 105
2018 Female Favorite: Tōsaka Rin
Wish: Contract?

Re: RESULTS: 2017 Topaz 15

Post by Veon » Fri Jun 30, 2017 2:29 pm

Now this looks like some kind of scandal. How many legit votes were not counted?
Not only in this round, but pretty much every round so far. Possible even previous year.
If all of this is real, then problem is much bigger than just one match.
User avatar
HOLOHO
Ninja cadet
Ninja cadet
Posts: 1
Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2017 2:30 pm
Badges:
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: Team Holo!
Location: USA

Re: RESULTS: 2017 Topaz 15

Post by HOLOHO » Fri Jun 30, 2017 3:04 pm

Hi, everyone. A new one here. I was not a member of this forum before, but always visited here. Recent results made me really confused, so I decide to register for an account

I just checked each round in Topaz where Asuna is there, and found every game with her has an obvious high votes than the other rounds. Especially the game with Holo, that map is obviously abnormal. Holo won most of the regions except China and lost. I think Maglor is taking action this round based on previous strange results. However, looks like Asuna's team from China can provide some evidence for these results. Then I would suggest them provide all the evidence for the whole 5 games in Topaz, and show these votes are solid, without any illegitimate interferences . If they could, that would be more convincing.
User avatar
Chibasa
[You can (not) Zura]
[You can (not) Zura]
Posts: 3025
Joined: Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:52 pm
Badges:
ImageImage
Worships: Nero Claudius
Melon Pan: 120
2020 Female Favorite: Nero Claudius
2020 Male Favorite: Okazaki Tomoya
2019 Female Favorite: Sakurajima Mai
2019 Male Favorite: Araragi Koyomi
2018 Female Favorite: Nishimiya Shōko
2018 Male Favorite: Kyon
Wish: Anime girls to take over the world
Location: France

Re: RESULTS: 2017 Topaz 15

Post by Chibasa » Fri Jun 30, 2017 3:40 pm

Due to unusual amount of new votes for one certain contestant, the vote checking staff mistakenly considered all of them to be a multivoting attack on ISML. A group has provided enough evidence for the staff to consider that this was a more complex case, with new votes from campaigning for this character mixed to a multivote attack. Under ISML Charter 2017 Section XII(C), the appeal is accepted. A recount is now in progress and the results will be announced in 24 hours.
ImageImage
Secret Santax Time
much more stuff than ToadyShow
Image
Image
ImageImageImageImageImage
Hikarin is the best
User avatar
smartboyhw
[Future Overlord]
[Future Overlord]
Posts: 3260
Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 2:18 pm
Badges:
ImageImage
Worships: Isshiki Iroha
Melon Pan: 0
2018 Female Favorite: Isshiki Iroha
2018 Male Favorite: Killua Zoldyck
Wish: Shichimiya Satone, Aoyama Nanami and Nakano Azusa to win an ISML prize, Inaba Himeko to win BGC and live in Sakura-sō
Location: Hong Kong, China

Re: RESULTS: 2017 Topaz 15

Post by smartboyhw » Fri Jun 30, 2017 3:45 pm

Image

Image

Apparently, the "one person one vote" plead advocated didn't completely work out, if anything.
ImageImage

Let me teach you something: We humans... Even for 10 minutes... We cannot even wait that long! - Nakamura Yuri, Angel Beats!
User avatar
0825buzz
Pokémon trainer
Pokémon trainer
Posts: 22
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2016 12:23 pm
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: Mashiro for the revenge
Location: Hong Kong

Re: RESULTS: 2017 Topaz 15

Post by 0825buzz » Fri Jun 30, 2017 5:14 pm

There is no evidence to prove this kind of screenshots is legally voted by every different ip address. I am not judging that the evidence from Asuna are fake. However just concerned that if this kind of screenshots can work as a proof. How ridiculous is it
User avatar
Homura
[Apprentice Magician]
[Apprentice Magician]
Posts: 3101
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2013 3:25 am
Badges:
Melon Pan: 55
2020 Female Favorite: Shiina Mashiro
2020 Male Favorite: Lelouch Lamperouge
2019 Female Favorite: Makise Kurisu
2019 Male Favorite: Levi
2018 Female Favorite: Makise Kurisu
2018 Male Favorite: Yukihira Sōma
Location: China

Re: RESULTS: 2017 Topaz 15

Post by Homura » Fri Jun 30, 2017 5:33 pm

Is Asuna gonna win the 2017 Tiara at this rate?
Image
User avatar
maglor
~Fukou da~
~Fukou da~
Posts: 8873
Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 8:57 pm
Badges:
ImageImage
Worships: Abriel Nei Debrusc Borl Paryun Lafiel
Melon Pan: 75
2020 Female Favorite: Holo
2020 Male Favorite: Natsume Takashi
2019 Female Favorite: Akemi Homura
2019 Male Favorite: Arima Kōsei
2018 Female Favorite: Chtholly Nota Seniorious
2018 Male Favorite: Yang Wenli
Wish: More people being open to alternatives and compromises.

Re: RESULTS: 2017 Topaz 15

Post by maglor » Fri Jun 30, 2017 6:41 pm

0825buzz wrote:There is no evidence to prove this kind of screenshots is legally voted by every different ip address. I am not judging that the evidence from Asuna are fake. However just concerned that if this kind of screenshots can work as a proof. How ridiculous is it
Sometimes, quantity has a quality all its own. While it may be that not all the screenshots are legal votes, we concluded that there exist sufficient ground to do a recount by adjusting algorithms to give better benefit of doubt for votes for Asuna from China. This will cause some other numbers to shift as we have to adjust the prior probabilities for the distribution of votes. Please refer to following articles about "a prior probability and a "likelihood function" derived from a statistical model for the observed data".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_inference" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


A video that might explain our response better

Image
User avatar
maglor
~Fukou da~
~Fukou da~
Posts: 8873
Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 8:57 pm
Badges:
ImageImage
Worships: Abriel Nei Debrusc Borl Paryun Lafiel
Melon Pan: 75
2020 Female Favorite: Holo
2020 Male Favorite: Natsume Takashi
2019 Female Favorite: Akemi Homura
2019 Male Favorite: Arima Kōsei
2018 Female Favorite: Chtholly Nota Seniorious
2018 Male Favorite: Yang Wenli
Wish: More people being open to alternatives and compromises.

Re: RESULTS: 2017 Topaz 15

Post by maglor » Fri Jun 30, 2017 6:42 pm

Homura wrote:Is Asuna gonna win the 2017 Tiara at this rate?
Well, I would like to direct your attention to previous cases when Asuna's "breakthrough" was met with "counterattacks" by other factions.
Image
User avatar
Kordosa
Soul gem
Soul gem
Posts: 4073
Joined: Mon Apr 19, 2010 3:35 am
Worships: Moriya Suwako's hat
Melon Pan: 50
2019 Female Favorite: Sakurajima Mai
2019 Male Favorite: Eugeo
2018 Female Favorite: Yamada Elf
2018 Male Favorite: Willem Kmetsch
Wish: A third season of Spice and Wolf.
Location: Mississippi, USA
Contact:

Re: RESULTS: 2017 Topaz 15

Post by Kordosa » Sat Jul 01, 2017 8:50 am

maglor wrote:While it may be that not all the screenshots are legal votes, we concluded that there exist sufficient ground to do a recount by adjusting algorithms* to give better benefit of doubt for votes for Asuna from China. This will cause some other numbers to shift* as we have to adjust the prior probabilities for the distribution of votes.
So basically, because the current vote checking procedures do not allow for clear cut results, the recount is going to apply a statistical algorithm to hopefully better guesstimate what the actual legitimate vote numbers are? That somehow makes me uncomfortable. I mean sure, using the above stated method might make the recount results come closer (and hopefully, spot on) to the actual number of legitimate votes than the initial results (if the supplied information can be verified). But in the end, that's still estimation. And while estimation (and statistics in general) is all well and good when wanting to surmise general trends or get a high level overview on stuff, I'm not sure that's good for a contest where each individual vote has a direct effect on the outcome and thus requires verifying hard numbers. (Not to mention that there's also always the possibility of unintended bias during the adjustment of those algorithms during the actual recount.) And yes, I realize that there's no absolutely perfect solution to getting 100% accurate results. But I'm just concerned about how confident I'll feel when the recount results come out.

TL;DR: This situation bothers me and I wish there were an easy solution so everyone would be satisfied with, and be confident in, the results (whatever they may be).

* Emphasis mine
QuotesShow
Cirno wrote:*sinister laugh* Winning by only 47 votes is all part of my master plan. Now everyone will think I'm weak when, in fact, I'm the strongest. And then, when they least expect it, I'll strike back and take over the entire ISML. It's foolproof. Hahahaha, I'm such a genius!
Crisu wrote:And, of course, never merge an anti-cookie with a normal cookie. Serious consequence will occur.
shiraoky wrote:I'm always squeeing lol.
Metaler wrote:Seriously, if you're gonna do something badly, then don't bother doing it. It's like when you take a dump: you don't show it to other people specifically because it's shit!
Kordosa wrote:Protip: If a male high school student character is voiced by a female seiyuu, there is a 100% probability that that character will be forced to crossdress at some point.
User avatar
Keima
Undine
Undine
Posts: 641
Joined: Fri Jun 29, 2012 6:13 am
Worships: Black Rock Shooter (BRS)
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: Still want even more professional quality Vocaloid events in the U.S.

Re: RESULTS: 2017 Topaz 15

Post by Keima » Sat Jul 01, 2017 10:17 am

Sorry I'm late posting here (been a bit busy making vacation plans for end of Summer).

Not too happy about the Keima/Taki match (obviously). And very disappointed that Isla lost (but if it had to be someone to lose to I guess it had to be Saber). But Illya defeating that super overrated Asuna....That almost makes up for everything else in this round. Yay!!

I too am a bit uncomfortable with the recount rationalization here. Vote levels in ISML have been dropping for the past few years and then suddenly several thousand voters suddenly pop up out of nowhere but most (if not all of them) didn't follow voting rules properly but still want their votes recognized? Many of us have been participating and voting on a regular/semiregular basis for months or even years. Where were all these supposed first time voters up until now? If even some of them had voted in ISML only a few times before they would have known they're votes weren't being counted and that they were doing something wrong in the casting of their ballots. Then this round wouldn't have been they're very first attempt at participation (if I'm understanding all this correctly) and maybe the results would have been different this round.

Seems like the onus is on those fans for not participating until now. Or at least that's how it looks to me.
User avatar
smartboyhw
[Future Overlord]
[Future Overlord]
Posts: 3260
Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 2:18 pm
Badges:
ImageImage
Worships: Isshiki Iroha
Melon Pan: 0
2018 Female Favorite: Isshiki Iroha
2018 Male Favorite: Killua Zoldyck
Wish: Shichimiya Satone, Aoyama Nanami and Nakano Azusa to win an ISML prize, Inaba Himeko to win BGC and live in Sakura-sō
Location: Hong Kong, China

Re: RESULTS: 2017 Topaz 15

Post by smartboyhw » Sat Jul 01, 2017 2:28 pm

Uh guys, I know this is the first time the relevant rule in the Charter is used, and this is a protest made by voters of a single country. Some of you may disagree of the decision to recount, some of you are not satisified anyway, but please don't get too emotional over this and deviate from the rules or facts.
ImageImage

Let me teach you something: We humans... Even for 10 minutes... We cannot even wait that long! - Nakamura Yuri, Angel Beats!
User avatar
smartboyhw
[Future Overlord]
[Future Overlord]
Posts: 3260
Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 2:18 pm
Badges:
ImageImage
Worships: Isshiki Iroha
Melon Pan: 0
2018 Female Favorite: Isshiki Iroha
2018 Male Favorite: Killua Zoldyck
Wish: Shichimiya Satone, Aoyama Nanami and Nakano Azusa to win an ISML prize, Inaba Himeko to win BGC and live in Sakura-sō
Location: Hong Kong, China

Re: RESULTS: 2017 Topaz 15

Post by smartboyhw » Sat Jul 01, 2017 3:28 pm

Recount results are out.

http://www.internationalsaimoe.com/stat ... /?round=15" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
ImageImage

Let me teach you something: We humans... Even for 10 minutes... We cannot even wait that long! - Nakamura Yuri, Angel Beats!
User avatar
Veon
Salamander
Salamander
Posts: 618
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2014 1:07 pm
Badges:
Image
Melon Pan: 105
2018 Female Favorite: Tōsaka Rin
Wish: Contract?

Re: RESULTS: 2017 Topaz 15

Post by Veon » Sat Jul 01, 2017 3:44 pm

So the winners of this recount are:
Yuki Asuna
Tadokoro Megumi
Nakimi Erina
Sakura Chiyo
Rest winners are the same as before.

Chiyo over Shiro is interesting. China not lolicon anymore?
User avatar
maglor
~Fukou da~
~Fukou da~
Posts: 8873
Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 8:57 pm
Badges:
ImageImage
Worships: Abriel Nei Debrusc Borl Paryun Lafiel
Melon Pan: 75
2020 Female Favorite: Holo
2020 Male Favorite: Natsume Takashi
2019 Female Favorite: Akemi Homura
2019 Male Favorite: Arima Kōsei
2018 Female Favorite: Chtholly Nota Seniorious
2018 Male Favorite: Yang Wenli
Wish: More people being open to alternatives and compromises.

Re: RESULTS: 2017 Topaz 15

Post by maglor » Sat Jul 01, 2017 3:47 pm

Veon wrote:So the winners of this recount are:
Yuki Asuna
Tadokoro Megumi
Nakimi Erina
Sakura Chiyo
Rest winners are the same as before.

Chiyo over Shiro is interesting. China not lolicon anymore?
Isn't Chiyo a loli as well?

For whatever the worth, here is the 2015 data to chew on

Image
Image
User avatar
Chibasa
[You can (not) Zura]
[You can (not) Zura]
Posts: 3025
Joined: Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:52 pm
Badges:
ImageImage
Worships: Nero Claudius
Melon Pan: 120
2020 Female Favorite: Nero Claudius
2020 Male Favorite: Okazaki Tomoya
2019 Female Favorite: Sakurajima Mai
2019 Male Favorite: Araragi Koyomi
2018 Female Favorite: Nishimiya Shōko
2018 Male Favorite: Kyon
Wish: Anime girls to take over the world
Location: France

Re: RESULTS: 2017 Topaz 15

Post by Chibasa » Sat Jul 01, 2017 3:49 pm

Veon wrote:So the winners of this recount are:
Yuki Asuna
Tadokoro Megumi
Nakimi Erina
Sakura Chiyo
Rest winners are the same as before.

Chiyo over Shiro is interesting. China not lolicon anymore?
This match-up happened twice in the past, once Chiyo won, once Shiro won (in China only, Shiro lost two matches).
ImageImage
Secret Santax Time
much more stuff than ToadyShow
Image
Image
ImageImageImageImageImage
Hikarin is the best
User avatar
HasbeenaHibiki
Moon princess
Moon princess
Posts: 3006
Joined: Wed May 25, 2011 5:37 pm
Badges:
Image
Worships: セニョール・ハズビーナ, ダークライ,クン・アゲロ・アグネス
Melon Pan: 201
2020 Female Favorite: Nakano Miku
2020 Male Favorite: Kakyoin Noriaki
2019 Female Favorite: Platelet
2019 Male Favorite: Bakugō Katsuki
2018 Female Favorite: Kurumizawa Satanichia McDowell
2018 Male Favorite: Bakugō Katsuki
Wish: A precure making it in ISML and a very popular male Saimoe. Also a Mucha Lucha anime. Darkrai in Saimoe

Re: RESULTS: 2017 Topaz 15

Post by HasbeenaHibiki » Sat Jul 01, 2017 4:38 pm

I feel mixed about the results.
Image
User avatar
Homura
[Apprentice Magician]
[Apprentice Magician]
Posts: 3101
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2013 3:25 am
Badges:
Melon Pan: 55
2020 Female Favorite: Shiina Mashiro
2020 Male Favorite: Lelouch Lamperouge
2019 Female Favorite: Makise Kurisu
2019 Male Favorite: Levi
2018 Female Favorite: Makise Kurisu
2018 Male Favorite: Yukihira Sōma
Location: China

Re: RESULTS: 2017 Topaz 15

Post by Homura » Sat Jul 01, 2017 5:00 pm

I was hoping at least Illya not losing by over 1000 votes, absolutely shit result.
Image
Post Reply