RESULTS - Amethyst 3

[Chocola]

Post your discussions about results here. This post will be updated with graphics when they become available. Results are released 12 hours after the end of the match, which is at 0000 GMT on 17 May (or 5 PM PDT, 8 PM EDT on 16 May). For more time translations, please refer to this thread.

By PercentageShow

Cumulative StatisticsShow

Performance RatingsShow

Text Results for RagingShow

69.32% - #23 Ibuki Fūko (CL) > #64 Kasuga "Ōsaka" Ayumu (AD)
65.55% - #33 Maria (HnG) > #34 Misaka Mikoto (TAMI)
65.54% - #30 Illyasviel von Einzbern (FSN) > #63 Patchouli Knowledge (TMK)
65.29% - #08 Saber (FSN) > #47 Anya Alstreim (CG)
64.18% - #11 Aisaka Taiga (TD) > #49 Ryōgi Shiki (KnK)
63.82% - #17 Asahina Mikuru (SHnY) > #56 Kirisame Marisa (TMK)
---
62.37% - #54 Misaka Shiori (KN) > #53 Sawatari Makoto (KN)
60.90% - #19 Tōsaka Rin (FSN) > #14 Ichinose Kotomi (CL)
60.54% - #40 Louise Vallière (ZnT) > #59 Vita (MSLN)
60.44% - #43 Kurata Sayuri (KN) > #57 Alice Carroll (ARIA)
60.12% - #29 Shinku (RM) > #38 Kushieda Minori (TD)
59.64% - #24 Furude Hanyū (HNKN) > #51 Kōzuki Kallen (CG)
59.27% - #01 Fujibayashi Kyō (CL) > #21 Ryūgū Rena (HNKN)
59.24% - #60 Chiba Kirino (BB) > #50 Nagi (KNG)
58.52% - #35 Hakurei Reimu (TMK) > #55 Mizunashi Akari (ARIA)
57.64% - #09 Katsura Hinagiku (HnG) > #20 Kinomoto Sakura (CCS)
57.16% - #31 Kawashima Ami (TD) > #62 Hinamori Amu (SC)
56.70% - #03 Sakagami Tomoyo (CL) > #16 Furude Rika (HNKN)
56.39% - #18 Suigintou (RM) > #05 Fate Testarossa (MSLN)
56.39% - #04 Shana (SnS) > #26 C.C. (CG)
55.76% - #13 Furukawa Nagisa (CL) > #07 Takamachi Nanoha (MSLN)
55.55% - #42 Yagami Hayate (MSLN) > #44 Remilia Scarlet (TMK)
55.24% - #15 Hiiragi Tsukasa (LS) > #22 Sanzen'in Nagi (HnG)
55.00% - #46 Index Prohibitorum (TAMI) > #61 Shameimaru Aya (TMK)
54.76% - #28 Kawasumi Mai (KN) > #48 Katagiri Yūhi (AISS)
54.22% - #10 Hiiragi Kagami (LS) > #12 Izumi Konata (LS)
53.00% - #32 Konjiki no Yami (TLR) > #41 Chii (CH)
---
50.84% - #02 Suzumiya Haruhi (SHnY) > #25 Suiseiseki (RM)
50.71% - #39 Tsukimiya Ayu (KN) > #36 Kamio Misuzu (AIR)
50.39% - #45 Minase Nayuki (KN) > #58 Kawazoe Tamaki (BB)
50.30% - #06 Nagato Yuki (SHnY) > #27 Holo (OtK)
50.15% - #37 Sunohara Mei (CL) > #52 Evangeline McDowell (NG)

Statistics
-The contestant who increased most in rankings, [+6], is Konjiki no Yami (TLR).
-The contestant who decreased most in rankings, [-3], is Takamachi Nanoha (MSLN).
-The contestant with the best rating performance, [95.41], is Shana (SnS).
-The contestant with the worst rating performance, [9.28], is Kasuga "Ōsaka" Ayumu (AD).
-The total valid votes for Amethyst 3 is 3793, 89.2% accepted.

[Fate]

Can't wait for this.

[Chocola]

I'm so glad I didn't post my predictions and embarrass myself, because I got an average difference of 4.83%. It looks like you win this time TRE.

[Eater-of-All]

Looks like everyone decided to take some steroids. There are multiple 2k+ votes.

[Fate]

Holyshi-, Fate lost...? By so much too. This is friggin' UNBELIEVABLE.

[Meimi132]

Holyshi-, Fate lost...? By so much too. This is friggin' UNBELIEVABLE.

Beaten by a doll... wowza....

[Team Rocket Elite]

I'm so glad I didn't post my predictions and embarrass myself, because I got an average difference of 4.83%. It looks like you win this time TRE.

Ouch 4.83% is pretty terrible. But I can't say my 4.82% is much better. <_<

Predicted: Suiseiseki (RM) [39.02%] vs Suzumiya Haruhi (SHnY) [60.98%]
Actual: Suiseiseki (RM) [49.16%] vs Suzumiya Haruhi (SHnY) [50.84%]

Predicted: Suigintou (RM) [45.97%] vs Fate Testarossa (MSLN) [54.03%]
Actual: Suigintou (RM) [56.39%] vs Fate Testarossa (MSLN) [43.61%]

I'm not sure what in the world happened, but I'm tempted to scrap my stats and start my ranking over. Amethyst 2 and Amethyst 3 results have just been completely wierd. 56.39% on Fate puts Suigintou in running for first place.

[Eater-of-All]

This isn't even Sparta but this... THIS IS MADNESS.

50.84% - #02 Suzumiya Haruhi (SHnY) > #25 Suiseiseki (RM)
50.30% - #06 Nagato Yuki (SHnY) > #27 Holo (OtK)
56.39% - #18 Suigintou (RM) > #05 Fate Testarossa (MSLN)

Is nobody safe anymore?

EDIT: 3 mispredictions
- Chiba Kirino > Nagi
- Tsukasa > Nagi Sanzenin
- Suigintou > Fate

[Demi.]

These results are disgusting.

If I see one more day of results like this, I'm done. I don't believe them for a second.

[Motoyama]

Something strange is going on. Proly Anti-Feito-ist.

[Thiago3T]

OMG!!!
hauhauhauaha Fate lost!!!
I got shocked!!! But is awersome \o/

Holyshi-, Fate lost...? By so much too. This is friggin' UNBELIEVABLE.

Beaten by a doll... wowza....

Other surprise was Kotomi lost.

Ayu and Mei victory´s was close. And again Nagato and Haruhi was close too.... Mikuru was great.

Rozen Maiden e Fate/stay night are stronger the begin

Poor Osaka =/

Now I´m curious: Can the organization show de courntries votes this time, and make balance with the another one? (when the vote counting stared begin increase).

Now the tornamente is getting interesting.... (if the things is fair)

[Fate]

Thiago3T, I don't appreciate your comments. It's nowhere near appropriate and ethical to classify Fate losing as 'awesome.' It's an unfathomable catastrophe of infinite proportions that leaves everybody in a state of bewilderment.

[rainbowizard]

S...Suigintou defeated Fate!
Incredible!!!

[whiteworm]

These results shocked me.[I am sure there are a lot of multiple votes.]but at least Nagisa and Tomoyo won.XD

[Juice]

I don't know why anyone is surprised. Even Powerhouses lose if the leave their defense unattended. Lazy voters thinking that their idol will do well regardless of their participation forget that it DOES have an effect.

[mrjpark]

Who the hell is Suigintou?!

[Demi.]

I'm so glad I didn't post my predictions and embarrass myself, because I got an average difference of 4.83%. It looks like you win this time TRE.

Ouch 4.83% is pretty terrible. But I can't say my 4.82% is much better. <_<

Predicted: Suiseiseki (RM) [39.02%] vs Suzumiya Haruhi (SHnY) [60.98%]
Actual: Suiseiseki (RM) [49.16%] vs Suzumiya Haruhi (SHnY) [50.84%]

Predicted: Suigintou (RM) [45.97%] vs Fate Testarossa (MSLN) [54.03%]
Actual: Suigintou (RM) [56.39%] vs Fate Testarossa (MSLN) [43.61%]

I'm not sure what in the world happened, but I'm tempted to scrap my stats and start my ranking over. Amethyst 2 and Amethyst 3 results have just been completely wierd. 56.39% on Fate puts Suigintou in running for first place.

Your predictions will no longer have any word of the form 'accuracy' if the trend continues. Because It's quite clear characters are severly underperforming, and severly overperforming from one match to the next. But from the looks of it this "new voting demographic" is pro Rozen Maiden. I'de say they hate MGLN and SHnY, but I'de be willing to bet they will stop voting against them after they've got a few more losses to their name. It's quite clear they voted every underdog, except vs. the characters they actually support.

And with how Suigintou and Rin just performed, even Shana would be devoured in their wake.

[Kairi]

As much as I like Suigintou, I don't see her being moe enough to win Fate.

These results are just being weird. Even if it is Suiseiseki and if she did lose, I expected Haruhi to win by so much more... And I mean it. Expected Yuki to do better too..

And I expected Ami to win by more... Hell, it's Amu. Amu having only less 400 vote than Ami is too strange...

[Chiharu]

Wow. I took a hiatus from ISML for like two weeks because of school but these results just fail. D:

Suigintou winning against Fate and Desu almost beating Haruhi? Rin beating Kotomi? D:

ffff so much fail.

Something seems fishy to me about these results. Who knows. =/

[Team Rocket Elite]

What a messed up round. I got 4 wrong:

Predicted: Hiiragi Tsukasa (LS) [47.98%] vs Sanzen'in Nagi (HnG) [52.02%]
Actual: Hiiragi Tsukasa (LS) [55.24%] vs Sanzen'in Nagi (HnG) [44.76%]
Difference: 7.26

Predicted: Nagi (KNG) [51.38%] vs Chiba Kirino (BB) [48.62%]
Actual: Nagi (KNG) [40.76%] vs Chiba Kirino (BB) [59.24%]
Difference: 10.62

Predicted: Suigintou (RM) [45.97%] vs Fate Testarossa (MSLN) [54.03%]
Actual: Suigintou (RM) [56.39%] vs Fate Testarossa (MSLN) [43.61%]
Difference: 10.42

Predicted: Takamachi Nanoha (MSLN) [52.06%] vs Furukawa Nagisa (CL) [47.94%]
Actual: Takamachi Nanoha (MSLN) [44.24%] vs Furukawa Nagisa (CL) [55.76%]
Difference: 7.82

Nagi takes a hard fall against Tsukasa. My stats didn't expect Nagi to win by much but it ended with Tsukasa winning by twice the margin. The other Nagi didn't do much better. Kirino is pretty close to the bottom in my stats and she just nearly hit 60% in a match. An absolutely terrible performance by Nagi.

I know Fate doesn't like dolls but her match against Suigintou was rediculously bad. In ISML 2008, Fate's worst loss was against Yuki where Fate only recieved 47.93% of the votes. Fate is weaker now but Suigintou's 56.39% is just crazy. Suigintou was supposed to be fighting for a spot in the top 16, not for a shot at #1.

Maybe a particularly anti-Nanoha group started voting since Nanoha did poorly as well. The fading Nagisa also stomped Nanoha with a over 55% victory.


Predicted accuracy was my second worst ever at 4.82 off on average. Only slightly better than 5.11 in Aquamarine 1 when I was using stats based on year old data and blind guesses. My three worst:

Predicted: Misaka Shiori (KN) [50.08%] vs Sawatari Makoto (KN) [49.92%]
Actual: Misaka Shiori (KN) [62.37%] vs Sawatari Makoto (KN) [37.63%]
Difference: 12.29

Predicted: Evangeline McDowell (NG) [39.15%] vs Sunohara Mei (CL) [60.85%]
Actual: Evangeline McDowell (NG) [49.85%] vs Sunohara Mei (CL) [50.15%]
Difference: 10.70

Predicted: Nagi (KNG) [51.38%] vs Chiba Kirino (BB) [48.62%]
Actual: Nagi (KNG) [40.76%] vs Chiba Kirino (BB) [59.24%]
Difference: 10.62

Despite having the largest distance off my prediction, Shiori vs Makoto actually isn't all the surprising. It's a clear SFF match so I know there was a good chance the results would be screwy. Usually with characters of similar strength, the effects of SFF is small but it wasn't so in this case.

I guess Evangeline's boost in power is real. This is the second time in a row she performed significantly better than expected.

Nagi's performance as I said earlier was just terrible.


My best prediction:

Predicted: Mizunashi Akari (ARIA) [41.5%] vs Hakurei Reimu (TMK) [58.5%]
Actual: Mizunashi Akari (ARIA) [41.48%] vs Hakurei Reimu (TMK) [58.52%]
Difference: 0.02

I guess not all matches had messed up results.


Predicted: Suiseiseki (RM) [39.02%] vs Suzumiya Haruhi (SHnY) [60.98%]
Actual: Suiseiseki (RM) [49.16%] vs Suzumiya Haruhi (SHnY) [50.84%]
Difference: 10.14

Haruhi won't beat Saber at this rate. Haruhi vs Saber is just a single day before May 21st, the day Haruhi characters might get a significant boost. With the way Haruhi has been performing I'm not even sure if a boost would help that much.