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RESULTS - Amethyst 8

Posted: Thu May 28, 2009 8:31 pm
by Chocola
Post your discussions about results here. This post will be updated with graphics when they become available. Results are released 12 hours after the end of the match, which is at 0000 GMT on 29 May (or 5 PM PDT, 8 PM EDT on 28 May). For more time translations, please refer to this thread.

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By PercentageShow
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Cumulative StatisticsShow
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Performance RatingsShow
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Text Results for RagingShow
73.20% - #29 Sanzen'in Nagi (HnG) > #64 Kasuga "Ōsaka" Ayumu (AD)
71.69% - #11 Katsura Hinagiku (HnG) > #45 Index Prohibitorum (TAMI)
71.42% - #01 Suzumiya Haruhi (SHnY) > #46 Remilia Scarlet (TMK)
70.68% - #08 Aisaka Taiga (TD) > #62 Shameimaru Aya (TMK)
69.79% - #05 Sakagami Tomoyo (CL) > #55 Ryōgi Shiki (KnK)
---
68.33% - #07 Hiiragi Kagami (LS) > #51 Misaka Shiori (KN)
68.14% - #02 Fujibayashi Kyō (CL) > #26 Kawashima Ami (TD)
67.29% - #03 Shana (SnS) > #42 Yagami Hayate (MSLN)
66.06% - #13 Takamachi Nanoha (MSLN) > #52 Kōzuki Kallen (CG)
66.01% - #10 Izumi Konata (LS) > #49 Anya Alstreim (CG)
65.84% - #18 Hiiragi Tsukasa (LS) > #54 Alice Carroll (ARIA)
65.52% - #21 Suiseiseki (RM) > #48 Nagi (KNG)
65.39% - #30 C.C. (CG) > #60 Kawazoe Tamaki (BB)
64.56% - #17 Ichinose Kotomi (CL) > #47 Katagiri Yūhi (AISS)
64.03% - #32 Kawasumi Mai (KN) > #58 Mizunashi Akari (ARIA)
62.89% - #04 Nagato Yuki (SHnY) > #28 Illyasviel von Einzbern (FSN)
62.69% - #12 Furukawa Nagisa (CL) > #56 Vita (MSLN)
59.57% - #24 Holo (OtK) > #43 Chii (CH)
59.26% - #57 Sawatari Makoto (KN) > #61 Patchouli Knowledge (TMK)
59.03% - #16 Tōsaka Rin (FSN) > #38 Misaka Mikoto (TAMI)
58.67% - #27 Kinomoto Sakura (CCS) > #50 Kirisame Marisa (TMK)
58.28% - #53 Evangeline McDowell (NG) > #59 Chiba Kirino (BB)
57.33% - #39 Tsukimiya Ayu (KN) > #40 Kurata Sayuri (KN)
57.23% - #09 Saber (FSN) > #22 Furude Hanyū (HNKN)
56.63% - #14 Suigintou (RM) > #35 Sunohara Mei (CL)
56.52% - #19 Furude Rika (HNKN) > #34 Hakurei Reimu (TMK)
56.16% - #36 Kushieda Minori (TD) > #63 Hinamori Amu (SC)
---
55.73% - #41 Louise Vallière (ZnT) > #44 Minase Nayuki (KN)
54.47% - #31 Maria (HnG) > #33 Konjiki no Yami (TLR)
53.86% - #06 Fate Testarossa (MSLN) > #23 Shinku (RM)
53.46% - #25 Ryūgū Rena (HNKN) > #37 Kamio Misuzu (AIR)
50.30% - #15 Asahina Mikuru (SHnY) > #20 Ibuki Fūko (CL)
Statistics
-The contestant who increased most in rankings, [+3], is Evangeline McDowell (NG).
-The contestants who decreased most in rankings, [-3], are Illyasviel von Einzbern (FSN) and Shinku (RM).
-The contestant with the best rating performance, [95.74], is Hiiragi Kagami (LS).
-The contestant with the worst rating performance, [8.48], is Kasuga "Ōsaka" Ayumu (AD).
-The total valid votes for Amethyst 8 is 3918, 88.3% accepted.

Re: RESULTS - Amethyst 8

Posted: Thu May 28, 2009 8:49 pm
by Fate
I hope Fate wins.

Re: RESULTS - Amethyst 8

Posted: Thu May 28, 2009 9:22 pm
by Demi.
Ditto.

I'm not sure if raging will be enough to calm me, if she doesn't.

Re: RESULTS - Amethyst 8

Posted: Thu May 28, 2009 9:58 pm
by Game8910
hope tomoyo loses for no reason

Re: RESULTS - Amethyst 8

Posted: Fri May 29, 2009 12:38 am
by Cecaniah
So much win today!

=D

Re: RESULTS - Amethyst 8

Posted: Fri May 29, 2009 1:02 am
by ithekro
No upsets....of any kind?

Re: RESULTS - Amethyst 8

Posted: Fri May 29, 2009 1:03 am
by Alexftw
I'm happy with all the results. (:

Re: RESULTS - Amethyst 8

Posted: Fri May 29, 2009 1:05 am
by Fate
YES! FATE WON! I believe we can all agree that that was the most intensive match.

Re: RESULTS - Amethyst 8

Posted: Fri May 29, 2009 1:20 am
by kiero
Few close matches, so no real bother. However, the results were really close to predictions on average; what happened to the RM voters?

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edit: wow, everyone got +0.00? ...

Re: RESULTS - Amethyst 8

Posted: Fri May 29, 2009 1:27 am
by Game8910
lol mikuru

Re: RESULTS - Amethyst 8

Posted: Fri May 29, 2009 1:28 am
by Eater-of-All
Whew, finally some sane results. Or is this just the calm before the storm?

Not much to comment upon; a bit of a boring round but:
-The total valid votes for Amethyst 8 is 3918, 88.3% accepted.
^ O.o

Re: RESULTS - Amethyst 8

Posted: Fri May 29, 2009 1:34 am
by Demi.
They sure tried to upset. I'm glad Fate pulled it off.

A lot of votes in that arena.

Believe it has the most by around 200 votes.

Some things to note, because I like to over-analyze everything -

1.) Based on how the RM faction tactical votes, they either vote against said character, or vote for a character to inflate their vote totals so they seem stronger than they really are for the following match.

2.) Shana, Yuki, Haruhi, and Kagami all broke 2,000 votes...which is impressive, but considering they're the reamaining four that is a threat to Suigintou's necklace, it may be a total reversal come Amethyst 9...That is, if they're really after the necklace, and if they're not butthurt over Shinku's loss and decide to switch support over to Yuki.

Re: RESULTS - Amethyst 8

Posted: Fri May 29, 2009 2:18 am
by Motoyama
Touhou faild this round xD.

Re: RESULTS - Amethyst 8

Posted: Fri May 29, 2009 2:44 am
by imbehindyou
What is this, the result *looks* normal?

56.63% - #14 Suigintou (RM) > #35 Sunohara Mei (CL)
53.86% - #06 Fate Testarossa (MSLN) > #23 Shinku (RM)

What is this, an attempt to hide the real strength of Suigintou? :shock: :lol:

Re: RESULTS - Amethyst 8

Posted: Fri May 29, 2009 2:51 am
by Demi.
Guess we'll know when she's vs. Nagisa on Friday, lol.

You can kinda tell RM faction hasn't gone anywhere based on Mikuru vs. Fuuko match,

Re: RESULTS - Amethyst 8

Posted: Fri May 29, 2009 7:34 am
by Team Rocket Elite
A pretty good performance this time. Only 2 wrong:

Predicted: Fate Testarossa (MSLN) [45.85%] vs Shinku (RM) [54.15%]
Actual: Fate Testarossa (MSLN) [53.86%] vs Shinku (RM) [46.14%]
Difference: 8.01

Predicted: Louise Vallière (ZnT) [48.14%] vs Minase Nayuki (KN) [51.86%]
Actual: Louise Vallière (ZnT) [55.73%] vs Minase Nayuki (KN) [44.27%]
Difference: 7.59

The person or persons who had been messing with the results suddenly decided not to participate this time. Shinku was one of the characters who benefitted the most and has taken a huge drop in power. A clear win against Fate was turned into a clear loss. In early Amethyst, Louise was stronger than Nayuki so the second mispredict isn't too odd. The margin of victory was a bit on the big side, though.

With the actual predictions I made, I was off by 3.85 on average. Amusingly, using my stats from Amethyst 1, I would have had been off by 2.65 on average. My three worst predictions:

Predicted: Kawashima Ami (TD) [43.91%] vs Fujibayashi Kyō (CL) [56.09%]
Actual: Kawashima Ami (TD) [31.86%] vs Fujibayashi Kyō (CL) [68.14%]
Difference: 12.05

Predicted: Suigintou (RM) [64.95%] vs Sunohara Mei (CL) [35.05%]
Actual: Suigintou (RM) [56.63%] vs Sunohara Mei (CL) [43.37%]
Difference: 8.32

Predicted: Fate Testarossa (MSLN) [45.85%] vs Shinku (RM) [54.15%]
Actual: Fate Testarossa (MSLN) [53.86%] vs Shinku (RM) [46.14%]
Difference: 8.01

Shinku, Suigintou and Ami all gained big after they got involved. When they left, they all fell hard.


I nearly managed another perfect prediction today:

Predicted: Takamachi Nanoha (MSLN) [66.05%] vs Kōzuki Kallen (CG) [33.95%]
Actual: Takamachi Nanoha (MSLN) [66.06%] vs Kōzuki Kallen (CG) [33.94%]
Difference: 0.01


Predicted: Misaka Shiori (KN) [30.02%] vs Hiiragi Kagami (LS) [69.98%]
Actual: Misaka Shiori (KN) [31.67%] vs Hiiragi Kagami (LS) [68.33%]
Difference: 1.65

Predicted: Sakagami Tomoyo (CL) [65.84%] vs Ryōgi Shiki (KnK) [34.16%]
Actual: Sakagami Tomoyo (CL) [69.79%] vs Ryōgi Shiki (KnK) [30.21%]
Difference: 3.95

Kagami vs Tomoyo is a key match in determining the necklace winner. Kagami is going in off a slight underperformance while Tomoyo is going in off an overperformance. Provided that no shenanigans, I think Kagami will manage to pull off a win and take the necklace. With that said, I predicted that Kagami would win the necklace at the beginning of Amehtyst and I always screw up my necklace prediction so consider Tomoyo a lock to beat Kagami. >_>

Re: RESULTS - Amethyst 8

Posted: Fri May 29, 2009 9:49 am
by Demi.
Team Rocket Elite wrote:A pretty good performance this time. Only 2 wrong:

Predicted: Fate Testarossa (MSLN) [45.85%] vs Shinku (RM) [54.15%]
Actual: Fate Testarossa (MSLN) [53.86%] vs Shinku (RM) [46.14%]
Difference: 8.01

Predicted: Louise Vallière (ZnT) [48.14%] vs Minase Nayuki (KN) [51.86%]
Actual: Louise Vallière (ZnT) [55.73%] vs Minase Nayuki (KN) [44.27%]
Difference: 7.59

The person or persons who had been messing with the results suddenly decided not to participate this time. Shinku was one of the characters who benefitted the most and has taken a huge drop in power. A clear win against Fate was turned into a clear loss. In early Amethyst, Louise was stronger than Nayuki so the second mispredict isn't too odd. The margin of victory was a bit on the big side, though.

With the actual predictions I made, I was off by 3.85 on average. Amusingly, using my stats from Amethyst 1, I would have had been off by 2.65 on average. My three worst predictions:

Predicted: Kawashima Ami (TD) [43.91%] vs Fujibayashi Kyō (CL) [56.09%]
Actual: Kawashima Ami (TD) [31.86%] vs Fujibayashi Kyō (CL) [68.14%]
Difference: 12.05

Predicted: Suigintou (RM) [64.95%] vs Sunohara Mei (CL) [35.05%]
Actual: Suigintou (RM) [56.63%] vs Sunohara Mei (CL) [43.37%]
Difference: 8.32

Predicted: Fate Testarossa (MSLN) [45.85%] vs Shinku (RM) [54.15%]
Actual: Fate Testarossa (MSLN) [53.86%] vs Shinku (RM) [46.14%]
Difference: 8.01

Shinku, Suigintou and Ami all gained big after they got involved. When they left, they all fell hard.
If You consider how many voters there where in Amethyst 8(The most we've had so far), and consider it was only a wednesday...It's likely they didn't really go anywhere. Shinku pulled 1,500(The arena had 3,342 votes, that's 200+ more than any other) votes, that's more than she has pulled vs. Illya and Tsukasa, a few matches ago. Suigintou does seem quite a bit weaker, but then again, she still pulled in quite a bit of votes for a wednesday. I think this is more a anti-RM rally, than RM faction actually leaving. Even for the RM faction, there was no way for them to manage 1,800+ votes against Fate on a Wednesday. And they do have some serious upsetting to do for the final match of Amethyst, I'm sure they where only interested in supporting the dolls this match; although Fuko came way too close to Mikuru...So that also makes you wonder.

Re: RESULTS - Amethyst 8

Posted: Fri May 29, 2009 10:11 am
by Talec
I don't like the results, but at least they don't surprising me anymore. Hopefully this continues.

Re: RESULTS - Amethyst 8

Posted: Fri May 29, 2009 10:39 am
by Team Rocket Elite
Either they stopped voting or they decided to vote in such a way that the percentages of votes recieved by each character is similar to what would be expected if they stopped voting. The second option is completely pointless since they can get the same result from simply not voting. Fate vs Shinku had the highest vote total and considering Shinku was a character they were supporting, if they voted they would defintely have voted in Shinku vs Fate. We know they have the power of at least 600 votes. If you take those out, it becomes a 65-35 match. It would take someone like Yuki or Clannad-AS boosted Kyou to put up a result like that.

I don't put much stock in the number of votes a character brings. The total votes in each match changes too much. Even matches on the same day can have significantly different vote totals. While Shinku pulled in more votes, that could just be a result of the boost in votes not because of any particular change in strength. An increase in vote totals means just about all character should be drawing in more votes realtive to matches with lower vote totals.

I think the percetange of votes a character gets in a match is a far better indicators of changes in strength. While Illya and Tsukasa aren't as strong as Fate, they aren't too much weaker. Going 54% on Illya to 46% on Fate is a fair sized drop in power.

For the most part, the people who would join a anti-RM rally are not people would would be voting for Shinku over Fate or generally any RM character. I don't see it as being a large factor. Also other non-RM characters that they had been support also crashed like Kawashima Ami.

I think they could have had Shinku hit 2000 if they really wanted to. Shinku was not exactly weak to begin with. Their power is roughly short of swinging a 60-40 match the other way(see Shana vs Kotomi). I pegged Shinku to be around 42-43% against Fate without their involvement. At the very least, they should be able to do better than 46%.

Another reason I think they didn't come vote is because the results were quite close to predictions made from my stats from Amethyst 1. Also almost all of the characters that had large increases in strength in my stats underperformed in Amethyst 8 while almost all of the characters that had large decreases in strength in my stats overperformed in Amethyst 8. If they are voting, they are voting almost exactly in line with how strong the characters were back in Amethyst 1 before they arrived.

With all that said, the jump in votes does seem odd but even if they are still voting, it wouldn't cause the vote totals to increase. There has to be another reason behind the increase in voter participation and that reason may be a large enough factor to make up for them not voting. Also them not voting in Amethyst 8 doesn't mean much since there's nothing stopping them from voting in Amethyst 9 and later matches.

Re: RESULTS - Amethyst 8

Posted: Fri May 29, 2009 11:28 am
by Demi.
Don't want to get into a large debate like I usually do, so I'll make some quick points...rather than my usual rants.

Team Rocket Elite wrote:Either they stopped voting or they decided to vote in such a way that the percentages of votes recieved by each character is similar to what would be expected if they stopped voting. The second option is completely pointless since they can get the same result from simply not voting. Fate vs Shinku had the highest vote total and considering Shinku was a character they were supporting, if they voted they would defintely have voted in Shinku vs Fate. We know they have the power of at least 600 votes. If you take those out, it becomes a 65-35 match. It would take someone like Yuki or Clannad-AS boosted Kyou to put up a result like that.
Well, Fate might not be what she was last year, but when her fans expect a tough match, her fans rally. She went from defeating Tsukssa by roughly 100 in the first match of double elimination, to defeating Kagami and Yuki by around 300 during the final matches. Shinku by herself is fairly weak, and the RM faction certainly makes her a force to be reckoned with, but they're not the only ones capable of pulling in extra votes. Let's not forget that even though Haruhi was qutie a bit stronger statistically, she still barely defeated Fate. So Fate's capable of pulling in Haruhi's numbers when It's absolutely necessary.

And oh crap, I've already started to rant... Ahwell, moving on.
I don't put much stock in the number of votes a character brings. The total votes in each match changes too much. Even matches on the same day can have significantly different vote totals. While Shinku pulled in more votes, that could just be a result of the boost in votes not because of any particular change in strength. An increase in vote totals means just about all character should be drawing in more votes realtive to matches with lower vote totals.
Yeah, but before Amethyst they where fairly consistent. Amethyst has been a lot more inconsistent...probably because that faction only votes in certain arenas, or rather, votes more in some then they do in others.
I think the percetange of votes a character gets in a match is a far better indicators of changes in strength. While Illya and Tsukasa aren't as strong as Fate, they aren't too much weaker. Going 54% on Illya to 46% on Fate is a fair sized drop in power.
That method works, but there are characters who consistently win despite not receiving massive totals like Haruhi. After Fate lost to Suigintou by roughly 400 votes, you can be sure Fate's Fans considered Shinku a large threat.
For the most part, the people who would join a anti-RM rally are not people would would be voting for Shinku over Fate or generally any RM character. I don't see it as being a large factor. Also other non-RM characters that they had been support also crashed like Kawashima Ami.
Well, to be fair, Ami has underperformed twice before in Amethyst. This time is no different, but if you consider it the fact Ami had no chance of upsetting Kyou, the RM faction probably intended to make her look strong so that she's ready for Shana in Amethyst 9. Actually, all top-tier characters severly raped this match, aside from Mikuru. I won't believe the faction Isn't preparing for a slaughter of the Top tier in Amethyst 9 until I see it for myself.
I think they could have had Shinku hit 2000 if they really wanted to. Shinku was not exactly weak to begin with. Their power is roughly short of swinging a 60-40 match the other way(see Shana vs Kotomi). I pegged Shinku to be around 42-43% against Fate without their involvement. At the very least, they should be able to do better than 46%.
Don't forget, this was a wednesday - If you check previous results, RM is statistically weaker on Wednesdays then they are on Fridays. How could Shinku hit 2K on Fate unless they have reinforcements they've not yet spent. Shinku has never hit 2K. Ever.
Another reason I think they didn't come vote is because the results were quite close to predictions made from my stats from Amethyst 1. Also almost all of the characters that had large increases in strength in my stats underperformed in Amethyst 8 while almost all of the characters that had large decreases in strength in my stats overperformed in Amethyst 8. If they are voting, they are voting almost exactly in line with how strong the characters were back in Amethyst 1 before they arrived.
I agree, the predictions where just about spot on, but I really think they did not pick sides this match, because there where few upsets they could hope for. The one they thought they could pull,(that was actually worth going for) they actually went for - Mikuru vs Fuuko. It's almost as if they sided with the stronger character's this match, because some of these results are even more rape than what would have probably been predicted before Amethyst.
With all that said, the jump in votes does seem odd but even if they are still voting, it wouldn't cause the vote totals to increase. There has to be another reason behind the increase in voter participation and that reason may be a large enough factor to make up for them not voting. Also them not voting in Amethyst 8 doesn't mean much since there's nothing stopping them from voting in Amethyst 9 and later matches.
Assuming they didn't vote, that would mean there would need to be 600 new voters + roughly another 700. Because Wednesdays typically draw in the fewest voters, and the average total of votes on Wednesdays around roughly 3,200. Do you really think ISML could jump 1,300 votes from one wednesday to the next?

Either way, whether I'm looking too far into this or not, I expect they will be there in full force come Amethyst 9.