Prediction Amethyst Round 4
(Nova)
Kuroyukihime 59.90% > Shiomiya Shiori 40.10%
Dekomori Sanae 50.00% < Yui 50.00%
Kirigaya Suguha 47.60% < Shokuhō Misaki 52.40%
Charlotte Belew 38.10% < Itsuka Kotori 61.90%
Roromiya Karuta 35.09% < Takanashi Rikka 64.91%
Chocolat 39.41% < Tokisaki Kurumi 60.59%
Aoyama Nanami 60.89% > Yukihira Furano 39.11%
Kurousagi 50.82% > Yukinoshita Yukino 49.18%
Momo Belia Deviluke 52.78% > Tobiichi Origami 47.22%
Yoshino 61.68% > Yūki Mikan 38.32%
Haqua du Lot Herminium 47.52% < Nyarlathotep 52.48%
Azuki Azusa 56.34% > Takanashi Tōka 43.66%
Kuriyama Mirai 44.80% < Yaya 55.20%
Laura Bodewig 39.42% < Yūki Asuna 60.58%
Natsume Rin 41.20% < Yatogami Tōka 58.80%
Shirakiin Ririchiyo 39.74% < Tsutsukakushi Tsukiko 60.26%
Chitanda Eru 57.17% > Nōmi Kudryavka 42.83%
Himeragi Yukina 39.42% < Nibutani Shinka 60.58%
(Stella)
Nakamura Yuri 57.64% > Victorique de Blois 42.36%
Last Order 47.33% < Nagato Yuki 52.67%
Senjōgahara Hitagi 43.78% < Yuzuriha Inori 56.22%
Eucliwood Hellscythe 58.33% > Mikazuki Yozora 41.67%
Gokō Ruri (Kuroneko) 61.65% > Iwasawa Masami 38.35%
Akiyama Mio 53.92% > Konjiki no Yami 46.08%
Kasugano Sora 42.67% < Shana 57.33%
Hirasawa Yui 47.49% < Suzumiya Haruhi 52.51%
Makise Kurisu 50.00% < Saber 50.00%
Charlotte Dunois 50.00% < Honma Meiko 50.00%
Illyasviel von Einzbern 42.16% < Yui-nyan 57.84%
Aisaka Taiga 60.08% > Katsura Hinagiku 39.92%
Sengoku Nadeko 35.69% < Shiina Mashiro 64.31%
Misaka Mikoto 62.51% > Tōwa Erio 37.49%
Aragaki Ayase 56.77% > Kashiwazaki Sena 43.23%
Hasegawa Kobato 49.28% < Nakano Azusa 50.72%
Kirishima Shōko 36.92% < Tachibana Kanade 63.08%
Kōsaka Kirino 52.60% > Oshino Shinobu 47.40%
Kuriyama Mirai 44.80
Tobiichi Origami 47.22
Natsume Rin 41.20
Kurousagi 50.82
Kirigaya Suguha 47.60
Yukihira Furano 39.11
Yaya 55.20
Yui 50.00
Nōmi Kudryavka 42.83
Yūki Mikan 38.32
Takanashi Tōka 43.66
Himeragi Yukina 39.42
Yukinoshita Yukino 49.18
Haqua du Lot Herminium 47.52
Shirakiin Ririchiyo 39.74
Nibutani Shinka 60.58
Laura Bodewig 39.42
Shirakiin Ririchiyo 39.74
Shana 57.33
Kashiwazaki Sena 43.23
Charlotte Dunois 50.00
Aisaka Taiga 60.08
Akiyama Mio 53.92
Oshino Shinobu 47.40
Nakamura Yuri 57.64
Konjiki no Yami 46.08
Hirasawa Yui 47.49
Yuzuriha Inori 56.22
Hasegawa Kobato 49.28
Last Order 47.33
Yui-nyan 57.84
Nakano Azusa 50.72
Saber 50.00
Nagato Yuki 52.67
Victorique de Blois 42.36
Iwasawa Masami 38.35
All predictions have a 5.12% percent margin of error (about 2-3 percentage points).
My new model has Yui, Charlotte Dunois, and Saber being very too close to call matches (50%). Its infuriating.
Yukina, Kirigaya, Kobato, Azusa, Nagato Yuki, and Kurosagi are all also in too close to call matches (that we care about anyways).
Using a new data model that applies a weight to various attributes, specifically the Contestant herself, and the VP & VF% of her opponent. The VP & VF% are normalized and grouped into buckets of 0.1 width each, so ten buckets. These buckets mostly explain why some girls have perfect 50% predictions. I decided to not consider the name of the opponent when generating these weights so that the model only focuses on how well a girl does against a generic girl with a certain VP and VF%.