2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

[Shmion84]

Predictions in Just format (using Method F)

NovaShow

Kuriyama Mirai 43.70
Tobiichi Origami 45.89
Natsume Rin 36.68
Kurousagi 53.34
Kirigaya Suguha 43.82
Yukihira Furano 34.53
Yaya 56.30
Yui 50.78
Nōmi Kudryavka 34.19
Yūki Mikan 35.93
Takanashi Tōka 43.99
Himeragi Yukina 36.63
Yukinoshita Yukino 46.66
Haqua du Lot Herminium 49.94
Shirakiin Ririchiyo 35.14
Nibutani Shinka 63.37
Laura Bodewig 34.22
Shirakiin Ririchiyo 35.14

StellaShow

Shana 60.92
Kashiwazaki Sena 43.41
Charlotte Dunois 55.29
Aisaka Taiga 67.10
Akiyama Mio 53.67
Oshino Shinobu 51.86
Nakamura Yuri 58.53
Konjiki no Yami 46.33
Hirasawa Yui 46.80
Yuzuriha Inori 57.43
Hasegawa Kobato 49.18
Last Order 47.50
Yui-nyan 57.20
Nakano Azusa 50.82
Saber 52.82
Nagato Yuki 52.50
Victorique de Blois 41.47
Iwasawa Masami 28.09

[Chocola]

Come on now RegalStar don't be stingy, let's have spring nominations a bit earlier this year.

[Jiharo]

SPRING NOMINATION PLEASE!

[smartboyhw]

SPRING NOMINATION PLEASE!

[avery-kun]

Prediction Amethyst Round 4

PredictionsShow

(Nova)
Kuroyukihime 59.90% > Shiomiya Shiori 40.10%
Dekomori Sanae 50.00% < Yui 50.00%
Kirigaya Suguha 47.60% < Shokuhō Misaki 52.40%
Charlotte Belew 38.10% < Itsuka Kotori 61.90%
Roromiya Karuta 35.09% < Takanashi Rikka 64.91%
Chocolat 39.41% < Tokisaki Kurumi 60.59%
Aoyama Nanami 60.89% > Yukihira Furano 39.11%
Kurousagi 50.82% > Yukinoshita Yukino 49.18%
Momo Belia Deviluke 52.78% > Tobiichi Origami 47.22%
Yoshino 61.68% > Yūki Mikan 38.32%
Haqua du Lot Herminium 47.52% < Nyarlathotep 52.48%
Azuki Azusa 56.34% > Takanashi Tōka 43.66%
Kuriyama Mirai 44.80% < Yaya 55.20%
Laura Bodewig 39.42% < Yūki Asuna 60.58%
Natsume Rin 41.20% < Yatogami Tōka 58.80%
Shirakiin Ririchiyo 39.74% < Tsutsukakushi Tsukiko 60.26%
Chitanda Eru 57.17% > Nōmi Kudryavka 42.83%
Himeragi Yukina 39.42% < Nibutani Shinka 60.58%

(Stella)
Nakamura Yuri 57.64% > Victorique de Blois 42.36%
Last Order 47.33% < Nagato Yuki 52.67%
Senjōgahara Hitagi 43.78% < Yuzuriha Inori 56.22%
Eucliwood Hellscythe 58.33% > Mikazuki Yozora 41.67%
Gokō Ruri (Kuroneko) 61.65% > Iwasawa Masami 38.35%
Akiyama Mio 53.92% > Konjiki no Yami 46.08%
Kasugano Sora 42.67% < Shana 57.33%
Hirasawa Yui 47.49% < Suzumiya Haruhi 52.51%
Makise Kurisu 50.00% < Saber 50.00%
Charlotte Dunois 50.00% < Honma Meiko 50.00%
Illyasviel von Einzbern 42.16% < Yui-nyan 57.84%
Aisaka Taiga 60.08% > Katsura Hinagiku 39.92%
Sengoku Nadeko 35.69% < Shiina Mashiro 64.31%
Misaka Mikoto 62.51% > Tōwa Erio 37.49%
Aragaki Ayase 56.77% > Kashiwazaki Sena 43.23%
Hasegawa Kobato 49.28% < Nakano Azusa 50.72%
Kirishima Shōko 36.92% < Tachibana Kanade 63.08%
Kōsaka Kirino 52.60% > Oshino Shinobu 47.40%

Nova Just FormatShow

Kuriyama Mirai 44.80
Tobiichi Origami 47.22
Natsume Rin 41.20
Kurousagi 50.82
Kirigaya Suguha 47.60
Yukihira Furano 39.11
Yaya 55.20
Yui 50.00
Nōmi Kudryavka 42.83
Yūki Mikan 38.32
Takanashi Tōka 43.66
Himeragi Yukina 39.42
Yukinoshita Yukino 49.18
Haqua du Lot Herminium 47.52
Shirakiin Ririchiyo 39.74
Nibutani Shinka 60.58
Laura Bodewig 39.42
Shirakiin Ririchiyo 39.74

Stella Just FormatShow

Shana 57.33
Kashiwazaki Sena 43.23
Charlotte Dunois 50.00
Aisaka Taiga 60.08
Akiyama Mio 53.92
Oshino Shinobu 47.40
Nakamura Yuri 57.64
Konjiki no Yami 46.08
Hirasawa Yui 47.49
Yuzuriha Inori 56.22
Hasegawa Kobato 49.28
Last Order 47.33
Yui-nyan 57.84
Nakano Azusa 50.72
Saber 50.00
Nagato Yuki 52.67
Victorique de Blois 42.36
Iwasawa Masami 38.35

All predictions have a 5.12% percent margin of error (about 2-3 percentage points).

My new model has Yui, Charlotte Dunois, and Saber being very too close to call matches (50%). Its infuriating.
Yukina, Kirigaya, Kobato, Azusa, Nagato Yuki, and Kurosagi are all also in too close to call matches (that we care about anyways).

Using a new data model that applies a weight to various attributes, specifically the Contestant herself, and the VP & VF% of her opponent. The VP & VF% are normalized and grouped into buckets of 0.1 width each, so ten buckets. These buckets mostly explain why some girls have perfect 50% predictions. I decided to not consider the name of the opponent when generating these weights so that the model only focuses on how well a girl does against a generic girl with a certain VP and VF%.

[avery-kun]

Research suggest that the 'Tsundere' attribute neither harms nor helps a contestant win.

However, I did find that previous years' ranking, contestant, anime, voice actors, VF%, and VP all have a noticeable correlation with victory, with the contestant, VF%, and VP being the strongest. All expected. I need to clean up the data a bit to remove anime's and voice actors with only one contestant to see how well this stands.

I hope to look into more attributes (Kuudere?, Loli?, Season (i.e. summer, winter...)...).

[Sphire]

Predictions in Just format:

NovaShow

Kuriyama Mirai 45.69
Tobiichi Origami 51.1
Natsume Rin 36.59
Kurousagi 52.61
Kirigaya Suguha 45.85
Yukihira Furano 36.17
Yaya 54.31
Yui 48.97
Nomi Kudyravka 38.54
Yuki Mikan 36.74
Takanashi Toka 45.48
Himeragi Yukina 36.33
Yukinoshita Yukino 47.39
Haqua du Lot Herminium 47.68
Shirakiin Ririchiyo 35.67
Nibutani Shinka 63.67
Laura Bodewig 34.41
Shirakiin Ririchiyo 35.67

StellaShow

Shana 58.51
Kashiwazaki Sena 41.35
Charlotte Dunois 52.98
Aisaka Taiga 65
Akiyama Mio 55.38
Oshino Shinobu 47.57
Nakamura Yuri 59.25
Konjiki no Yami 44.62
Hirasawa Yui 47.89
Yuzuriha Inori 59.09
Hasegawa Kobato 48.16
Last Order 48.01
Yui-nyan 59.3
Nakano Azusa 51.84
Saber 52.16
Nagato Yuki 51.99
Victorique de Blois 40.75
Iwasawa Masami 31.78

Edit: I meant to say, we probably didn't need Mikoto's underlings

[RegalStar]

Come on now RegalStar don't be stingy, let's have spring nominations a bit earlier this year.

If Hikari-chan wants it too, then I will start it one week earlier. (I need to do a few things to prepare too)

[Just]

Thanks all for your help Data entry has become so convenient that I'm starting to enjoy it
Of course, anyone who'd like to join posting their predictions for each round are welcome. It would also be nice if Mr moeglor could persuade TRE to post his complete predictions here after each round's Fantasy closes.

Edit: I meant to say, we probably didn't need Mikoto's underlings

Well, there's probably no reason to manipulate Mikoto's SDO, but I think including them would make a good control group for our comparison Let's ask Mr moeglor if that's necessary.

[maglor]

Thanks all for your help Data entry has become so convenient that I'm starting to enjoy it
Of course, anyone who'd like to join posting their predictions for each round are welcome. It would also be nice if Mr moeglor could persuade TRE to post his complete predictions here after each round's Fantasy closes.

Edit: I meant to say, we probably didn't need Mikoto's underlings

Well, there's probably no reason to manipulate Mikoto's SDO, but I think including them would make a good control group for our comparison Let's ask Mr moeglor if that's necessary.

I agree about not needing to do Mikoto, since there is no point on manipulating her SDO. They can be skipped unless they happen to be underlings of a contender without a necklace in 2014. They can make a interesting control group, but since we already saw that majority of cases were between -2 and +2 in Z-score, the baseline can be considered as pretty well established, thus we don't have to have them as a control group.

[Just]

OK, I'll exclude them next round onwards, but still do it this round as it has already been done ^^

[maglor]

OK, I'll exclude them next round onwards, but still do it this round as it has already been done ^^

That would be fine.

[Vella]

If a contestant gets exactly 64% of votes in an area, what colour will that area be?

[akumaxx]

The bad news: Kagari is a HanaKana.

[Curisu]

SPRING NOMINATION PLEASE!

[avery-kun]

The bad news: Kagari is a HanaKana.

If Kagari wins, it'll likely be from her own strength than because HanaKana.

[Progeusz]

WHOA.
Miyanaga Saki! The cutest overlord has descended to ISML grounds! I'm sure most of people will be too terrified and choose timid Takao instead but I'll certainly praise Saki with my honest vote!

[Desufire]

Of course Rin <3 gets one of the hardest matchups QQ

[maglor]

Takao has superior proportion

[Progeusz]

Takao has superior proportion

I dare to disagree:

SpoilerShow