2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by avery-kun » Tue May 27, 2014 4:35 am

So. Mikoto has overcome her previous challenges, so she may be gunning for the Diadem or Tiara, but the true tests are yet to come.

Kurumi has failed to unify the DAL vote behind her last period against Kotori, so its hard to tell if she can take command of the Mikoto vote to win the necklace. But she has the SDO to over Kotori to make the argument. Hopefully voters realize that SDO is now more important than last year so they need to focus on Kurumi instead of Kotori if they want to win Amethyst. Which is a big moral victory for anybody not named Kanade.
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by maglor » Tue May 27, 2014 5:01 am

Just wrote:Amethyst 7 SDO Manipulation Analysis
NovaShow
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StellaShow
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Well what'd ya know? Look at Kurumi and Kanade, the Nova and Stella with the highest SDO.
Coincidence? Or really attempts to boost SDO?
Kurumi is the logical choice for DAL faction to push for the necklace. If we look at all 7-1 = 6 rounds, there doesn't seem to be sustained effort to boost someone's SDO, since Kurumi often was below +2 threshold. As for Kanade, she was consistently high, but rarely high enough to cross +2 threshold. I think safe conclusion is that perhaps couple of hundred voters did try to vote with SDO in mind, but more often than not, their effort got washed out by other voters.
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by Shmion84 » Tue May 27, 2014 5:45 am

RPI and RPI-3 update after Amethyst 7:
Amethyst PeriodShow
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No change in leadership. Tokisaki Kurumi is RPI- and SDO-favorite for Amethyst Necklace, while Tachibana Kanade is SWVO-favorite.
Regular SeasonShow
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Previous Data (Amethyst 6): viewtopic.php?f=17&t=4841&start=240#p254415" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

See also (Aquamarine 7): viewtopic.php?f=15&t=4755&start=240#p249834" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Note: Tachibana Kanade's RPI-value for Aquamarine Period is 0.6854, her RPI-value for Amethyst Period is 0.6684, while her RPI-value for both Periods is only 0.6339! Another feature of RPI.
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by maglor » Tue May 27, 2014 5:50 am

Shmion84 wrote:RPI and RPI-3 update after Amethyst 7:
Amethyst PeriodShow
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No change in leadership. Tokisaki Kurumi is RPI- and SDO-favorite for Amethyst Necklace, while Tachibana Kanade is SWVO-favorite.
Regular SeasonShow
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Previous Data (Amethyst 6): viewtopic.php?f=17&t=4841&start=240#p254415" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

See also (Aquamarine 7): viewtopic.php?f=15&t=4755&start=240#p249834" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Note: Tachibana Kanade's RPI-value for Aquamarine Period is 0.6854, her RPI-value for Amethyst Period is 0.6684, while her RPI-value for both Periods is only 0.6339! Another feature of RPI.

I see high correlation between RPI ( or RPI-3 ) ranks and SDO ranks. This may mean replacing SDO with RPI may result in little change.
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by CureRainbow » Tue May 27, 2014 5:53 am

Orz, I'm not sure whether to support Ruri or Kurumi for the Amethyst necklace ;_;

In other news, nice to see you in exhibitions, Hime and Kyouko!~
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by Shmion84 » Tue May 27, 2014 6:06 am

Result of Prediction test for Amethyst 7 (see also viewtopic.php?f=17&t=4841&start=240#p254419" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; for Amethyst 6):
Large ImageShow
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All methods pass the test for Amethyst 7

===

Amethyst Period Test:
MatchdayMethod F-iterSWVO-multSWVO-addVP-addVF%-add
112.661.712.041.38
21-1.721.661.03
31-1.221.371.29
41-2.422.971.56
51-1.932.821.59
61-1.201.571.37
711.571.391.391.18
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by maglor » Tue May 27, 2014 6:14 am

The necklace thoughts for the 7 in the group match

Tachibana Kanade : By many statistical measures by many different people, she is the leader. At this point, Kanade has nothing to lose going into the necklace match. She may be better served by letting someone else have the necklace thus make people forget how dominant she is for a while. For Kanade, what matters in the circlet and the tiara, since she has plenty of necklaces already. Rally cry, perhaps , Kanade looks pretty in Amethyst purple.

Kuroneko : Due to her SDO and the prospect of Hanakana split. Kuroneko isn't expected to win the Amethyst necklace thus also don't have much to lose. BUT, she has been the forgotten one in the early stories of 2014 ISML. A dominant showing and the Amethyst necklace should greatly boost Kuroneko fans morale, and also be of help to Kanade fans, as they can claim that Hanakana faction remains dominant. Rally cry : Three-peat!!!

Eucliwood : Euclwiood must make a very good showing in this necklace round. She just suffered a loss, and she needs something to reestablish her dominance and position herself as the best choice to prevent repeat Tiara winner. If she can come out as top vote getter in the round, even if she don't win the necklace, her tiara chance will be greatly enhanced. Rally cry : hmmm.... perhaps ... Say NO to Hanakana and DAL bullies!

Kurumi : She is the SDO leader. This is the best chance Kurumi will ever get for the necklace. Simply, Rally cry : It is now or never.

Kotori : She is the Nova leader . She has to show that her poor showing in Aqua necklace round is not something to be concerned . Rally cry : The Great Nova Hope

Yoshino : The necromancer and the 4 Ks are too scary and too much of bully. I'm scared. Please vote for the meek Yoshino to protect her.

Tsukiko : She must position herself as the alternative to Stella and DAL. If Stella's splits and DAL splits works in her favor, she can make a very good showing. Rally-cry : I am the alternative you are looking for.

What's your thoughts?
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by Chocola » Tue May 27, 2014 6:24 am

Easy. DAL fans need to realize that this may be their only shot at DAL ever having the necklace, so all DAL fans need to vote for Kurumi without question. Otherwise, the DAL split will always be there in every necklace match while stella gets all the necklaces.
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by 10ZHAbin » Tue May 27, 2014 6:29 am

I thought: Kirishima Shouko will get Korea in her match.
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by LOveLive! » Tue May 27, 2014 6:35 am

KholdStare88 wrote:Easy. DAL fans need to realize that this may be their only shot at DAL ever having the necklace, so all DAL fans need to vote for Kurumi without question. Otherwise, the DAL split will always be there in every necklace match while stella gets all the necklaces.
Not surely. Since still Kotori vs. Yoshino and Kurumi vs. Yoshino remain.
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by Chocola » Tue May 27, 2014 6:52 am

LOveLive! wrote:
KholdStare88 wrote:Easy. DAL fans need to realize that this may be their only shot at DAL ever having the necklace, so all DAL fans need to vote for Kurumi without question. Otherwise, the DAL split will always be there in every necklace match while stella gets all the necklaces.
Not surely. Since still Kotori vs. Yoshino and Kurumi vs. Yoshino remain.
...which will still lead to a split between 2 instead of 3.
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by maglor » Tue May 27, 2014 6:53 am

Shmion84 wrote:Result of Prediction test for Amethyst 7 (see also viewtopic.php?f=17&t=4841&start=240#p254419" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; for Amethyst 6):
Large ImageShow
Image
All methods pass the test for Amethyst 7

===

Amethyst Period Test:
MatchdayMethod F-iterSWVO-multSWVO-addVP-addVF%-add
112.661.712.041.38
21-1.721.661.03
31-1.221.371.29
41-2.422.971.56
51-1.932.821.59
61-1.201.571.37
711.571.391.391.18
VF%-add keeps hanging around. Care to explain VF%-add model to everyone again? While I think Method-F is definitely superior to SWVO or VP only models, I can't say it has establish superiority over VF%-add, yet.

Also, it is interesting that SWVO-multiplicative has significantly improved in relative prediction power. It can be one match fluke, but it is something worth noting.
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by kukimunstir » Tue May 27, 2014 7:28 am

I did this last time for Kotori (jewel-less ok i made up those word+ SDO wise best among any DAL).
Much impressed upon her kicking Kurumi's ass by large margin.
But fans think Aqua is too blue for the blazing hot of Kotori eh? So very disappointed with the number of votes Kotori got during Aqua necklace match.

I'll do it again this time for Kurumi and it's huge plus since she's in my favorite.

I just love giving chance to poor jewel-less Nova than those rich babe of Stella. Let's see who we have all necklace holders, 2/3 are tiara holders LOL
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by smartboyhw » Tue May 27, 2014 7:40 am

Vote-splitting between DAL girls is expected (I mean, between Kotori, Yoshino and Kurumi? Quite a big dilemma).

I thought it would be Rikka or Eru for the 4th Nova, so I am surprised that Tsukiko can participate. Nevertheless, she just doesn't have much chance here.

Predicting Kanade or Kurumi to win. Voting for Yoshino or Kotori (please don't kill me for not voting for Kurumi, I blame maglor for such a splited match)
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by Vella » Tue May 27, 2014 8:12 am

Though it's no hope for Goko Ruri's third Amethyst Necklace, I still want to give my thanks to every staff.
With all your love, we will keep fighting till the end.
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by LOveLive! » Tue May 27, 2014 8:21 am

Vella wrote:Though it's no hope for Goko Ruri's third Amethyst Necklace, I still want to give my thanks to every staff.
With all your love, we will keep fighting till the end.
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That picture. :lol:
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by Zefyris » Tue May 27, 2014 9:00 am

KholdStare88 wrote:Easy. DAL fans need to realize that this may be their only shot at DAL ever having the necklace, so all DAL fans need to vote for Kurumi without question. Otherwise, the DAL split will always be there in every necklace match while stella gets all the necklaces.
Color wise and SDO-wise the choice should be obvious for the fans indeed. However, was there actually even one time in ISML history since the necklace match creation when a contender won the necklace despite a 2nd (not even talking about three) character from the same series being in the necklace?

Edit :
Aquamarine 2011 : Kanade+Yuri -> no win.
Amethyst 2011 : Mio+Azusa ->no win
Emerald 2011 : Mio+Azusa ->no win
Ruby 2011 : Mio+Azusa ->no win
Diamond 2011 : Mio+Azusa+Yui ->no win
Aquamarine 2012 : Kanade + Yuri : Kanade win
Ruby 2012 : Kobato+Sena : no win
Emerald 2012 : Mio+Azusa ->no win
Topaz 2012 : Kobato + Sena ->no win
Aquamarine 2013 Ruri+Kirino ->no win
Aquamarine 2014 : Yoshino + Kotori -> no win
Amethyst 2014 : Yoshino+ Kurumi + Kotori -> ??

From this, seems pretty clear that as soon as the two contestants from the same series are even a little close in strength, they never won, although they were close several times. We can even say that K-ON suffered greatly from this, as in 2012 they only managed to win a necklace on topaz, when Azusa didn't qualify. Can DAL really manages a win against Kanade with a three way split between 3 characters of around the same strength? Doesn't sound really doable to me.
BTW, 2013 was almost free of split voting during necklace matches, with only aquamarine where it happened. But it looks like we're going to get a 2014 year with a LOT of split voting...
This is the second time in ISML history where 3 characters from the same series access to the same necklace. And the first time all of them got 7-0.
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by 10ZHAbin » Tue May 27, 2014 10:17 am

If Kanade wins the Amethyst Necklace while helping Masami grabbing the decoration, then Amethyst Period will ended happily for AB! characters with 100 wins achievement (Yurippe), necklace and decoration.
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by Chocola » Tue May 27, 2014 10:55 am

Zefyris wrote:
KholdStare88 wrote:Easy. DAL fans need to realize that this may be their only shot at DAL ever having the necklace, so all DAL fans need to vote for Kurumi without question. Otherwise, the DAL split will always be there in every necklace match while stella gets all the necklaces.
Color wise and SDO-wise the choice should be obvious for the fans indeed. However, was there actually even one time in ISML history since the necklace match creation when a contender won the necklace despite a 2nd (not even talking about three) character from the same series being in the necklace?

Edit :
Aquamarine 2011 : Kanade+Yuri -> no win.
Amethyst 2011 : Mio+Azusa ->no win
Emerald 2011 : Mio+Azusa ->no win
Ruby 2011 : Mio+Azusa ->no win
Diamond 2011 : Mio+Azusa+Yui ->no win
Aquamarine 2012 : Kanade + Yuri : Kanade win
Ruby 2012 : Kobato+Sena : no win
Emerald 2012 : Mio+Azusa ->no win
Topaz 2012 : Kobato + Sena ->no win
Aquamarine 2013 Ruri+Kirino ->no win
Aquamarine 2014 : Yoshino + Kotori -> no win
Amethyst 2014 : Yoshino+ Kurumi + Kotori -> ??

From this, seems pretty clear that as soon as the two contestants from the same series are even a little close in strength, they never won, although they were close several times. We can even say that K-ON suffered greatly from this, as in 2012 they only managed to win a necklace on topaz, when Azusa didn't qualify. Can DAL really manages a win against Kanade with a three way split between 3 characters of around the same strength? Doesn't sound really doable to me.
BTW, 2013 was almost free of split voting during necklace matches, with only aquamarine where it happened. But it looks like we're going to get a 2014 year with a LOT of split voting...
This is the second time in ISML history where 3 characters from the same series access to the same necklace. And the first time all of them got 7-0.
If the so-called "Hanakana faction" is real, then Kanade + Kuroneko has been paired together before as well (Aquamarine 2013), with Kanade still ends up winning. However, if your only exception remains to be Kanade, and you're not Kanade, then it's safe to say you're out of the running.
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by akumaxx » Tue May 27, 2014 12:33 pm

Vella wrote:Though it's no hope for Goko Ruri's third Amethyst Necklace, I still want to give my thanks to every staff.
With all your love, we will keep fighting till the end.
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This explains the stuff below:
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