2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by Momento10 » Sat May 24, 2014 5:11 am

Yoshino vs. Takanashi Rikka means at least one of the top three Nova girls is going to have her winning streak stopped.
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by CureRainbow » Sat May 24, 2014 5:39 am

Finally. An exhibition with a character I'm very familiar with and love- oh my god.

ISML y u do this to me with Miuna vs. Tenri (╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻)
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by Just » Sat May 24, 2014 6:39 am

Amethyst 7 Prediction
SDO Manipulation Analysis Interest List

(The longest ever! Feel free to blame maglor, as always.)
NovaShow
Yatogami Tōka
Kuriyama Mirai
Tobiichi Origami
Shokuhō Misaki
Charlotte Belew
Natsume Rin
Chitanda Eru
Kurousagi
Kirigaya Suguha
Momo Belia Deviluke
Chocolat
Yukihira Furano
Aoyama Nanami
Yaya
Yui
Azuki Azusa
Roromiya Karuta
Nōmi Kudryavka
Tsutsukakushi Tsukiko
Yūki Mikan
Takanashi Tōka
Dekomori Sanae
Shiomiya Shiori
Himeragi Yukina
Nibutani Shinka
Yukinoshita Yukino
Haqua du Lot Herminium
Nyarlathotep
Laura Bodewig
Shirakiin Ririchiyo
Nibutani Shinka
Yūki Mikan
Kirigaya Suguha
Dekomori Sanae
Laura Bodewig
Shirakiin Ririchiyo
StellaShow
Shana
Kashiwazaki Sena
Charlotte Dunois
Suzumiya Haruhi
Kasugano Sora
Kirishima Shōko
Nakamura Yuri
Konjiki no Yami
Hirasawa Yui
Honma Meiko
Katsura Hinagiku
Iwasawa Masami
Yuzuriha Inori
Hasegawa Kobato
Last Order
Kōsaka Kirino
Illyasviel von Einzbern
Sengoku Nadeko
Yui-nyan
Nakano Azusa
Saber
Makise Kurisu
Senjōgahara Hitagi
Mikazuki Yozora
Nakamura Yuri
Kashiwazaki Sena
Hirasawa Yui
Nagato Yuki
Victorique de Blois
Iwasawa Masami
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by Shmion84 » Sat May 24, 2014 7:16 am

RPI and RPI-3 update after Amethyst 6:
Amethyst PeriodShow
Image
Tokisaki Kurumi took the leadership.
Regular SeasonShow
Image
No changes in leadership.

Previous data (Amethyst 5): viewtopic.php?f=17&t=4841&start=200#p253876" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by Shmion84 » Sat May 24, 2014 7:57 am

Result of Prediction test for Amethyst 6 - originally I used wrong predictions for SWVO-add and VP-add. In this result the predictions were corrected! (see also viewtopic.php?f=17&t=4841&start=200#p253878" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; for Amethyst 5)
Large ImageShow
Image
All methods pass the test.

Predictions for Amethyst 7
Another Large ImageShow
Image
== Justified Predictions ==
NovaShow
Yatogami Tōka 60.44
Kuriyama Mirai 39.56
Tobiichi Origami 53.05
Shokuhō Misaki 55.49
Charlotte Belew 44.30
Natsume Rin 45.21
Chitanda Eru 53.83
Kurousagi 47.56
Kirigaya Suguha 48.01
Momo Belia Deviluke 54.79
Chocolat 48.23
Yukihira Furano 44.51
Aoyama Nanami 52.44
Yaya 46.17
Yui 54.26
Azuki Azusa 59.48
Roromiya Karuta 45.74
Nōmi Kudryavka 47.42
Tsutsukakushi Tsukiko 57.15
Yūki Mikan 41.54
Takanashi Tōka 51.77
Dekomori Sanae 52.58
Shiomiya Shiori 51.99
Himeragi Yukina 40.52
Nibutani Shinka 58.46
Yukinoshita Yukino 42.85
Haqua du Lot Herminium 55.70
Nyarlathotep 54.42
Laura Bodewig 46.95
Shirakiin Ririchiyo 45.58
Nibutani Shinka 58.46
Yūki Mikan 41.54
Kirigaya Suguha 48.01
Dekomori Sanae 52.58
Laura Bodewig 46.95
Shirakiin Ririchiyo 45.58
StellaShow
Shana 57.13
Kashiwazaki Sena 47.80
Charlotte Dunois 52.71
Suzumiya Haruhi 58.98
Kasugano Sora 45.57
Kirishima Shōko 44.09
Nakamura Yuri 52.20
Konjiki no Yami 42.87
Hirasawa Yui 49.86
Honma Meiko 53.02
Katsura Hinagiku 47.18
Iwasawa Masami 46.98
Yuzuriha Inori 48.13
Hasegawa Kobato 42.11
Last Order 52.82
Kōsaka Kirino 55.91
Illyasviel von Einzbern 50.14
Sengoku Nadeko 41.02
Yui-nyan 48.59
Nakano Azusa 51.41
Saber 54.43
Makise Kurisu 57.11
Senjōgahara Hitagi 47.29
Mikazuki Yozora 41.34
Nakamura Yuri 52.20
Kashiwazaki Sena 47.80
Hirasawa Yui 49.86
Nagato Yuki 58.66
Victorique de Blois 45.11
Iwasawa Masami 46.98
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by avery-kun » Sat May 24, 2014 1:11 pm

Amethyst Round 7 Predictions (Its already round 7? I thought we had one more round!)
Round 7 PredictionsShow
(Nova)
Tobiichi Origami 53.84% > Laura Bodewig 46.16%
Haqua du Lot Herminium 54.63% > Charlotte Belew 45.37%
Takanashi Tōka 53.33% > Chocolat 46.67%
Nyarlathotep 54.95% > Shirakiin Ririchiyo 45.05%
Shiomiya Shiori 50.67% > Kirigaya Suguha 49.33%
Yoshino 52.93% > Takanashi Rikka 47.07%
Yui 55.21% > Roromiya Karuta 44.79%
Itsuka Kotori 54.31% > Yūki Asuna 45.69%
Momo Belia Deviluke 54.02% > Natsume Rin 45.98%
Tokisaki Kurumi 53.71% > Kuroyukihime 46.29%
Azuki Azusa 59.77% > Himeragi Yukina 40.23%
Dekomori Sanae 52.22% > Nōmi Kudryavka 47.78%
Chitanda Eru 52.88% > Yaya 47.12%
Yatogami Tōka 59.32% > Kuriyama Mirai 40.68%
Tsutsukakushi Tsukiko 56.63% > Yukinoshita Yukino 43.37%
Nibutani Shinka 58.86% > Yūki Mikan 41.14%
Shokuhō Misaki 54.34% > Yukihira Furano 45.66%
Aoyama Nanami 54.48% > Kurousagi 45.52%


(Stella)
Kōsaka Kirino 55.86% > Kirishima Shōko 44.14%
Shana 57.34% > Konjiki no Yami 42.66%
Akiyama Mio 52.19% > Yuzuriha Inori 47.81%
Misaka Mikoto 56.78% > Eucliwood Hellscythe 43.22%
Aisaka Taiga 58.35% > Hasegawa Kobato 41.65%
Oshino Shinobu 54.83% > Victorique de Blois 45.17%
Nakamura Yuri 53.34% > Kashiwazaki Sena 46.66%
Last Order 54.07% > Katsura Hinagiku 45.93%
Hirasawa Yui 50.51% > Illyasviel von Einzbern 49.49%
Honma Meiko 53.90% > Iwasawa Masami 46.10%
Nagato Yuki 56.89% > Mikazuki Yozora 43.11%
Charlotte Dunois 51.90% > Senjōgahara Hitagi 48.10%
Suzumiya Haruhi 58.34% > Sengoku Nadeko 41.66%
Gokō Ruri (Kuroneko) 54.10% > Aragaki Ayase 45.90%
Saber 54.51% > Kasugano Sora 45.49%
Nakano Azusa 51.86% > Yui-nyan 48.14%
Tachibana Kanade 54.25% > Shiina Mashiro 45.75%
Makise Kurisu 56.25% > Tōwa Erio 43.75%
Nova Just FormatShow
Yatogami Tōka 59.32
Kuriyama Mirai 40.68
Tobiichi Origami 53.84
Shokuhō Misaki 54.34
Charlotte Belew 45.37
Natsume Rin 45.98
Chitanda Eru 52.88
Kurousagi 45.52
Kirigaya Suguha 49.33
Momo Belia Deviluke 54.02
Chocolat 46.67
Yukihira Furano 45.66
Aoyama Nanami 54.48
Yaya 47.12
Yui 55.21
Azuki Azusa 59.77
Roromiya Karuta 44.79
Nōmi Kudryavka 47.78
Tsutsukakushi Tsukiko 56.63
Yūki Mikan 41.14
Takanashi Tōka 53.33
Dekomori Sanae 52.22
Shiomiya Shiori 50.67
Himeragi Yukina 40.23
Nibutani Shinka 58.86
Yukinoshita Yukino 43.37
Haqua du Lot Herminium 54.63
Nyarlathotep 54.95
Laura Bodewig 46.16
Shirakiin Ririchiyo 45.05
Nibutani Shinka 58.86
Yūki Mikan 41.14
Kirigaya Suguha 49.33
Dekomori Sanae 52.22
Laura Bodewig 46.16
Shirakiin Ririchiyo 45.05
Stella Just FormatShow
Shana 57.34
Kashiwazaki Sena 46.66
Charlotte Dunois 51.90
Suzumiya Haruhi 58.34
Kasugano Sora 45.49
Kirishima Shōko 44.14
Nakamura Yuri 53.34
Konjiki no Yami 42.66
Hirasawa Yui 50.51
Honma Meiko 53.90
Katsura Hinagiku 45.93
Iwasawa Masami 46.10
Yuzuriha Inori 47.81
Hasegawa Kobato 41.65
Last Order 54.07
Kōsaka Kirino 55.86
Illyasviel von Einzbern 49.49
Sengoku Nadeko 41.66
Yui-nyan 48.14
Nakano Azusa 51.86
Saber 54.51
Makise Kurisu 56.25
Senjōgahara Hitagi 48.10
Mikazuki Yozora 43.11
Nakamura Yuri 53.34
Kashiwazaki Sena 46.66
Hirasawa Yui 50.51
Nagato Yuki 56.89
Victorique de Blois 45.17
Iwasawa Masami 46.10
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by maglor » Sat May 24, 2014 1:57 pm

Shmion84 wrote:RPI and RPI-3 update after Amethyst 6:
Amethyst PeriodShow
Image
Tokisaki Kurumi took the leadership.
Regular SeasonShow
Image
No changes in leadership.

Previous data (Amethyst 5): viewtopic.php?f=17&t=4841&start=200#p253876" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Apparently, even the RPI is severely affected by Loops. Since Loops are unavoidable, I was hoping we can find a strength measure that is less affected by loops compared to SDO, and sadly, it seems RPI can't do that.
-----------------------

Shmion, Can you also do SWVO - multiplicative in Amethyst 7? I want to know whether its predictive power stayed the same, got worse, or improved compared to Amethyst 1.
---------------------------------

By now, I think we can safely conclude that Loops are having much greater impact on SDO compared to any SDO manipulation attempts. I guess we need to find a way to minimize the loops while keeping some randomness in the schedule.
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by Midnight-Jasper » Sat May 24, 2014 7:43 pm

akumaxx wrote:If we have to make a "cute critter" tournament, then maybe we don't have much entries.
I like this idea :)
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by Shmion84 » Sat May 24, 2014 9:15 pm

maglor wrote: Shmion, Can you also do SWVO - multiplicative in Amethyst 7? I want to know whether its predictive power stayed the same, got worse, or improved compared to Amethyst 1.
I calculated SWVO-mult predictions. Instead of uploading a new image I use text in spoiler:
SWVO-multShow
Nova
Aoyama Nanami 52.15
Azuki Azusa 56.20
Charlotte Belew 46.07
Chitanda Eru 52.77
Chocolat 47.59
Dekomori Sanae 53.05
Itsuka Kotori 51.81
Kirigaya Suguha 50.25
Kuriyama Mirai 44.51
Kuroyukihime 48.39
Laura Bodewig 48.08
Momo Belia Deviluke 52.72
Nibutani Shinka 55.26
Nyarlathotep 52.44
Roromiya Karuta 46.47
Shokuhō Misaki 54.72
Takanashi Rikka 49.48
Tsutsukakushi Tsukiko 53.78
Stella
Aisaka Taiga 54.72
Akiyama Mio 50.57
Aragaki Ayase 47.62
Charlotte Dunois 51.50
Eucliwood Hellscythe 47.21
Hirasawa Yui 50.67
Honma Meiko 51.68
Kashiwazaki Sena 48.55
Kasugano Sora 46.99
Katsura Hinagiku 47.11
Kirishima Shōko 45.68
Konjiki no Yami 46.15
Makise Kurisu 55.20
Mikazuki Yozora 43.85
Nakano Azusa 51.07
Oshino Shinobu 53.03
Sengoku Nadeko 43.71
Shiina Mashiro 47.95
SWVO-mult still tends to close matches.

---------------------------------
maglor wrote:By now, I think we can safely conclude that Loops are having much greater impact on SDO compared to any SDO manipulation attempts. I guess we need to find a way to minimize the loops while keeping some randomness in the schedule.
Either this or we use a loop independent value.
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by maglor » Sat May 24, 2014 11:09 pm

Shmion84 wrote:
maglor wrote: Shmion, Can you also do SWVO - multiplicative in Amethyst 7? I want to know whether its predictive power stayed the same, got worse, or improved compared to Amethyst 1.
I calculated SWVO-mult predictions. Instead of uploading a new image I use text in spoiler:
SWVO-multShow
Nova
Aoyama Nanami 52.15
Azuki Azusa 56.20
Charlotte Belew 46.07
Chitanda Eru 52.77
Chocolat 47.59
Dekomori Sanae 53.05
Itsuka Kotori 51.81
Kirigaya Suguha 50.25
Kuriyama Mirai 44.51
Kuroyukihime 48.39
Laura Bodewig 48.08
Momo Belia Deviluke 52.72
Nibutani Shinka 55.26
Nyarlathotep 52.44
Roromiya Karuta 46.47
Shokuhō Misaki 54.72
Takanashi Rikka 49.48
Tsutsukakushi Tsukiko 53.78
Stella
Aisaka Taiga 54.72
Akiyama Mio 50.57
Aragaki Ayase 47.62
Charlotte Dunois 51.50
Eucliwood Hellscythe 47.21
Hirasawa Yui 50.67
Honma Meiko 51.68
Kashiwazaki Sena 48.55
Kasugano Sora 46.99
Katsura Hinagiku 47.11
Kirishima Shōko 45.68
Konjiki no Yami 46.15
Makise Kurisu 55.20
Mikazuki Yozora 43.85
Nakano Azusa 51.07
Oshino Shinobu 53.03
Sengoku Nadeko 43.71
Shiina Mashiro 47.95
SWVO-mult still tends to close matches.

---------------------------------
maglor wrote:By now, I think we can safely conclude that Loops are having much greater impact on SDO compared to any SDO manipulation attempts. I guess we need to find a way to minimize the loops while keeping some randomness in the schedule.
Either this or we use a loop independent value.
Any value that is dependent on the opponents will be affected by loops. At the end of the season, I guess all the stat team needs to gather for a big discussion.
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by tehyc » Sun May 25, 2014 3:05 pm

Amethyst 7 prediction
NovaShow
Tobiichi Origami 52.32% > Laura Bodewig 47.68%
Charlotte Belew 46.78% < Haqua du Lot Herminium 53.22%
Chocolat 49.21% < Takanashi Tōka 50.79%
Nyarlathotep 53.81% > Shirakiin Ririchiyo 46.19%
Kirigaya Suguha 47.68% < Shiomiya Shiori 52.32%
Yoshino 50.50% > Takanashi Rikka 49.50%
Yui 52.48% > Roromiya Karuta 47.52%
Itsuka Kotori 51.55% > Yūki Asuna 48.45%
Natsume Rin 46.72% < Momo Belia Deviluke 53.28%
Tokisaki Kurumi 50.36% > Kuroyukihime 49.64%
Himeragi Yukina 44.38% < Azuki Azusa 55.62%
Dekomori Sanae 51.28% > Nōmi Kudryavka 48.72%
Chitanda Eru 51.83% > Yaya 48.17%
Yatogami Tōka 55.58% > Kuriyama Mirai 44.42%
Yukinoshita Yukino 46.79% < Tsutsukakushi Tsukiko 53.21%
Nibutani Shinka 54.44% > Yūki Mikan 45.56%
Yukihira Furano 47.81% < Shokuhō Misaki 52.19%
Kurousagi 47.94% < Aoyama Nanami 52.06%
StellaShow
Kōsaka Kirino 54.06% > Kirishima Shōko 45.94%
Shana 54.35% > Konjiki no Yami 45.65%
Yuzuriha Inori 48.17% < Akiyama Mio 51.83%
Eucliwood Hellscythe 49.31% < Misaka Mikoto 50.69%
Hasegawa Kobato 46.35% < Aisaka Taiga 53.65%
Victorique de Blois 47.76% < Oshino Shinobu 52.24%
Kashiwazaki Sena 48.22% < Nakamura Yuri 51.78%
Last Order 51.39% > Katsura Hinagiku 48.61%
Hirasawa Yui 49.50% < Illyasviel von Einzbern 50.50%
Iwasawa Masami 48.13% < Honma Meiko 51.87%
Mikazuki Yozora 46.24% < Nagato Yuki 53.76%
Charlotte Dunois 51.45% > Senjōgahara Hitagi 48.55%
Suzumiya Haruhi 55.68% > Sengoku Nadeko 44.32%
Aragaki Ayase 48.42% < Gokō Ruri (Kuroneko) 51.58%
Saber 51.68% > Kasugano Sora 48.32%
Yui-nyan 47.99% < Nakano Azusa 52.01%
Tachibana Kanade 51.64% > Shiina Mashiro 48.36%
Tōwa Erio 46.68% < Makise Kurisu 53.32%

Nova very long listShow
Yatogami Tōka 55.58%
Kuriyama Mirai 44.42%
Tobiichi Origami 52.32%
Shokuhō Misaki 52.19%
Charlotte Belew 46.78%
Natsume Rin 46.72%
Chitanda Eru 51.83%
Kurousagi 47.94%
Kirigaya Suguha 47.68%
Momo Belia Deviluke 53.28%
Chocolat 49.21%
Yukihira Furano 47.81%
Aoyama Nanami 52.06%
Yaya 48.17%
Yui 52.48%
Azuki Azusa 55.62%
Roromiya Karuta 47.52%
Nōmi Kudryavka 48.72%
Tsutsukakushi Tsukiko 53.21%
Yūki Mikan 45.56%
Takanashi Tōka 50.79%
Dekomori Sanae 51.28%
Shiomiya Shiori 52.32%
Himeragi Yukina 44.38%
Nibutani Shinka 54.44%
Yukinoshita Yukino 46.79%
Haqua du Lot Herminium 53.22%
Nyarlathotep 53.81%
Laura Bodewig 47.68%
Shirakiin Ririchiyo 46.19%
Nibutani Shinka 54.44%
Yūki Mikan 45.56%
Kirigaya Suguha 47.68%
Dekomori Sanae 51.28%
Laura Bodewig 47.68%
Shirakiin Ririchiyo 46.19%
Stella very long listShow
Shana 54.35%
Kashiwazaki Sena 48.22%
Charlotte Dunois 51.45%
Suzumiya Haruhi 55.68%
Kasugano Sora 48.32%
Kirishima Shōko 45.94%
Nakamura Yuri 51.78%
Konjiki no Yami 45.65%
Hirasawa Yui 49.50%
Honma Meiko 51.87%
Katsura Hinagiku 48.61%
Iwasawa Masami 48.13%
Yuzuriha Inori 48.17%
Hasegawa Kobato 46.35%
Last Order 51.39%
Kōsaka Kirino 54.06%
Illyasviel von Einzbern 50.50%
Sengoku Nadeko 44.32%
Yui-nyan 47.99%
Nakano Azusa 52.01%
Saber 51.68%
Makise Kurisu 53.32%
Senjōgahara Hitagi 48.55%
Mikazuki Yozora 46.24%
Nakamura Yuri 51.78%
Kashiwazaki Sena 48.22%
Hirasawa Yui 49.50%
Nagato Yuki 53.76%
Victorique de Blois 47.76%
Iwasawa Masami 48.13%
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by Just » Sun May 25, 2014 4:53 pm

Amethyst 7 Predictions
CrissyShow
(Nova)
Tobiichi Origami 53.37% Laura Bodewig 46.63%
Charlotte Belew 44.95% Haqua du Lot Herminium 55.05%
Chocolat 48.63% Takanashi Tōka 51.37%
Nyarlathotep 53.47% Shirakiin Ririchiyo 46.53%
Kirigaya Suguha 48.67% Shiomiya Shiori 51.33%
Yoshino 52.30% Takanashi Rikka 47.70%
Yui 55.86% Roromiya Karuta 44.14%
Itsuka Kotori 56.76% Yūki Asuna 43.24%
Natsume Rin 44.56% Momo Belia Deviluke 55.44%
Tokisaki Kurumi 54.74% Kuroyukihime 45.26%
Himeragi Yukina 41.20% Azuki Azusa 58.80%
Dekomori Sanae 52.80% Nōmi Kudryavka 47.20%
Chitanda Eru 53.20% Yaya 46.80%
Yatogami Tōka 59.45% Kuriyama Mirai 40.55%
Yukinoshita Yukino 42.68% Tsutsukakushi Tsukiko 57.32%
Nibutani Shinka 58.96% Yūki Mikan 41.04%
Yukihira Furano 45.01% Shokuhō Misaki 54.99%
Kurousagi 47.80% Aoyama Nanami 52.20%
(Stella)
Kōsaka Kirino 55.59% Kirishima Shōko 44.41%
Shana 56.74% Konjiki no Yami 43.26%
Yuzuriha Inori 49.40% Akiyama Mio 50.60%
Eucliwood Hellscythe 46.06% Misaka Mikoto 53.94%
Hasegawa Kobato 41.45% Aisaka Taiga 58.55%
Victorique de Blois 45.69% Oshino Shinobu 54.31%
Kashiwazaki Sena 47.05% Nakamura Yuri 52.95%
Last Order 52.73% Katsura Hinagiku 47.27%
Hirasawa Yui 50.24% Illyasviel von Einzbern 49.76%
Iwasawa Masami 47.13% Honma Meiko 52.87%
Mikazuki Yozora 43.37% Nagato Yuki 56.63%
Charlotte Dunois 52.29% Senjōgahara Hitagi 47.71%
Suzumiya Haruhi 58.78% Sengoku Nadeko 41.22%
Aragaki Ayase 45.03% Gokō Ruri (Kuroneko) 54.97%
Saber 53.55% Kasugano Sora 46.45%
Yui-nyan 49.72% Nakano Azusa 50.28%
Tachibana Kanade 52.40% Shiina Mashiro 47.60%
Tōwa Erio 43.18% Makise Kurisu 56.82%
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Yatogami Tōka 59.45%
Kuriyama Mirai 40.55%
Tobiichi Origami 53.37%
Shokuhō Misaki 54.99%
Charlotte Belew 44.95%
Natsume Rin 44.56%
Chitanda Eru 53.20%
Kurousagi 47.80%
Kirigaya Suguha 48.67%
Momo Belia Deviluke 55.44%
Chocolat 48.63%
Yukihira Furano 45.01%
Aoyama Nanami 52.20%
Yaya 46.80%
Yui 55.86%
Azuki Azusa 58.80%
Roromiya Karuta 44.14%
Nōmi Kudryavka 47.20%
Tsutsukakushi Tsukiko 57.32%
Yūki Mikan 41.04%
Takanashi Tōka 51.37%
Dekomori Sanae 52.80%
Shiomiya Shiori 51.33%
Himeragi Yukina 41.20%
Nibutani Shinka 58.96%
Yukinoshita Yukino 42.68%
Haqua du Lot Herminium 55.05%
Nyarlathotep 53.47%
Laura Bodewig 46.63%
Shirakiin Ririchiyo 46.53%
Nibutani Shinka 58.96%
Yūki Mikan 41.04%
Kirigaya Suguha 48.67%
Dekomori Sanae 52.80%
Laura Bodewig 46.63%
Shirakiin Ririchiyo 46.53%
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Shana 56.74%
Kashiwazaki Sena 47.05%
Charlotte Dunois 52.29%
Suzumiya Haruhi 58.78%
Kasugano Sora 46.45%
Kirishima Shōko 44.41%
Nakamura Yuri 52.95%
Konjiki no Yami 43.26%
Hirasawa Yui 50.24%
Honma Meiko 52.87%
Katsura Hinagiku 47.27%
Iwasawa Masami 47.13%
Yuzuriha Inori 49.40%
Hasegawa Kobato 41.45%
Last Order 52.73%
Kōsaka Kirino 55.59%
Illyasviel von Einzbern 49.76%
Sengoku Nadeko 41.22%
Yui-nyan 49.72%
Nakano Azusa 50.28%
Saber 53.55%
Makise Kurisu 56.82%
Senjōgahara Hitagi 47.71%
Mikazuki Yozora 43.37%
Nakamura Yuri 52.95%
Kashiwazaki Sena 47.05%
Hirasawa Yui 50.24%
Nagato Yuki 56.63%
Victorique de Blois 45.69%
Iwasawa Masami 47.13%
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by avery-kun » Mon May 26, 2014 3:40 am

I hate Misaka v Eu. All data indicates a Mikoto victory this time. But like with Mikoto v Kanade, you can never be too sure.
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by maglor » Mon May 26, 2014 3:24 pm

So, people,

(1) If Mikoto beats Eucliwood, what does that mean and how will it affect the Amethyst necklace picture and/or 2014 Tiara Picture?
(2) If Eucliwood beats Mikoto, what does that mean and how will it affect the Amethyst necklace picture and/or 2014 Tiara Picture?
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by Just » Mon May 26, 2014 5:28 pm

General predictions about 1st-tier matches in Stella: Kanade, Ruri and Mikoto would win, with some margin to spare.

Parties who might interfere with this match:
a. Nova powers (depending on who, Eu or Mashiro, they think is a bigger threat than help in Necklace Match)
b. HanaKana faction
c. Mashiro

Reasons to interfere in favour of Eu:
a. Prevent Mashiro from entering the necklace match who might pull votes away from Nova, or hope that Eu entering the match would draw some votes away from Kanade and Ruri
b. Strengthen the supposed 'bond' between Eu and HanaKana faction
c. Beat Mikoto and spoil her morale in the run for the Tiara

Reasons to interfere in favour of Mikoto:
a. Prevent Eu from entering the necklace match, or hope that Mashiro entering the match instead would pull some votes away from Stella
b. Avoid a vote split with Eu in the necklace match, who shares some common fan base
c. Improve Mashiro's chances of entering the necklace match

(1)
It is the expected result. There would be one less competitive character from Stella in the Necklace match, and Kanade would probably run away with an SDO advantage. Her only competition would come from Nova.
As for the Tiara picture, Eu is probably out of the race unless she gets a serious strength boost in the 2nd half of the season. It also raises question whether the supposed 'alliance' of Eu with Kanade and Ruri is still intact. It would also seem that the real forces remaining in Stella would be Mikoto and Mashiro, or maybe if people'd rather Kanade win it again.

(2)
Because Mikoto is expected to win by a considerable margin, I'll include the case that Eu loses by a small VD here, in addition to her winning.
That means people prefer having Eu in the Necklace Match instead of Mashiro. How this would impact other characters is a huge question mark. On the one hand Eu is the only one with competitive SDO from Stella other than Kanade, but on the other hand there might be overlap in supporters with Kanade. How putting Eu in there affects Kanade's VF would be interesting.
As for the Tiara picture, it means that Mikoto has still not swung herself free from the fate of losing every time she faces Eu. It also means she is much less likely to win against Ruri and Kanade. On the other hand, it injects life back into Eu, making her a decent competitor for the Tiara again.



One more comment: Mashiro needs to prove her power by not losing too much to Kanade.
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by Progeusz » Mon May 26, 2014 6:26 pm

@maglor
It won't affect Amethyst necklace picture. It's impossible for Eu to win vs Kanade and Mikoto can't participate anymore thanks to winning Aquamarine. There are several characters who can win Amethyst (Kanade is obviously the favorite) but Eu isn't one of them.

For the latter part:
(2) It would mean Eu is still very strong and part of Stella top4. She would be the favorite to win the Tiara in such case depending on the schedule. If she manages to avoid Kanade (Mikoto is always capable of gathering huge numbers vs her, that's a possible semifinal match), she should win the Tiara. If she were to meet Tenshi in the final (where champion curse is the most powerful), she would still have a good chance thanks to not getting the trophy before. Especially if she were to fight vs Mikoto in semis, such win would give her fans a lot of confidence, possibly enough to overtake Kanade. I think we can disregard Nova here.
(1) That would make things very interesting. It would mean that last one to get the Tiara of Stella's top4 isn't too strong (remember Eu is talented at dealing with tsundere so loss to Mikoto would be of huge importance). She would be in the range of Mashiro AND Nova's top then (Kurumi, Kotori, Rikka). Kanade and Mikoto (unquestionable top2) already have the Tiara so they're likely to attract antivoting in post-season, lowering their strength to ~the level of others. 7 contenders. I don't think there was a season like that before.
Kuroneko isn't strong enough to overcome champion curse but she can definitely smack Nova in quarter/semis.


One more comment: I hope Kanade can beat Mashiro by a lot so people would finally stop believing she has any chance of going against the top of Stella.
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by avery-kun » Mon May 26, 2014 8:36 pm

I like to think of the Top 4 of Stella like so.

Tiara Boss - Kanade. She is the assumed winner of the Tiara. You must prove rivalry against her to hope at getting the Tiara.
Gatekeepers - Mikoto and Kuroneko. Successfully beat these two and you may get the support to challenge the Boss.
The Enigma - Eucliwood. She is strong but weird. She beats Mikoto, yet is crushed by Kuroneko and Kanade, and lost to even Tiaga last year. Nobody really knows whats up with her.

Eu's victory her means nothing because she has already proven she can beat Mikoto, consistently. But she consistently fails miserably against Kanade and Kuroneko has grown much in strength since 2011. She must somehow make it close to Diadem and/or beat Kuroneko to try and get the Tiara.

1) If Mikoto wins, she is trying to get the Tiara again and her fans are sticking around for once. The real test, of course, will be either Kuroneko and Kanade. She must beat Kuroneko or almost beat/beat Kanade AND secure the Diadem to really solidify her case. Euclidwood's lost here eliminates her chances at the Tiara.

2) If Eucliwood wins, she hasn't done anything out of the ordinary. She consistently beats Mikoto. She got crushed by Kanade last period, so its unlikely that Kanade's voters have decided to give Eu a chance at the Tiara by supporting her. For Eucliwood to prove she wants the Tiara, she must win a necklace over Kuroneko -- preferably by overcoming a SDO disadvantage or by beating Kuroneko in the Round 7 of the period (likely Ruby). If she wins one after Kuroneko, without Kuroneko in the necklace round, or with Kuroneko having a large SDO disadvantage, she misses her chance at proving her worth.
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by avery-kun » Tue May 27, 2014 4:12 am

The last hope for a Stella non-repeat is down! All forces, redirect your efforts to supporting Date-A-Live. Focus your efforts on building up the Kurumi!
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by Just » Tue May 27, 2014 4:25 am

Amethyst 7 SDO Manipulation Analysis
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Well what'd ya know? Look at Kurumi and Kanade, the Nova and Stella with the highest SDO.
Coincidence? Or really attempts to boost SDO?
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Re: 2014 Amethyst General Discussion Thread

Post by LOveLive! » Tue May 27, 2014 4:32 am

There is nowhere Kuroneko can get Amethyst, orz...
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