VOTING: 2011 Sapphire 8 [Necklace Round] - 21 July

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Re: VOTING: 2011 Sapphire 8 [Necklace Round] - 21 July

Post by Tacros » Thu Jul 21, 2011 8:55 pm

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Re: VOTING: 2011 Sapphire 8 [Necklace Round] - 21 July

Post by Deathscyther » Thu Jul 21, 2011 8:57 pm

ARENA 01-Nakano AzusaGokō Ruri (Kuroneko)Katsura HinagikuShanaSuzumiya HaruhiAisaka TaigaVictorique de Blois
ARENA 02-Ogata RinaNakagawa KanonEdomae LunarHoshina UtauHanato KobatoLynn MinmayAthena Glory
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Re: VOTING: 2011 Sapphire 8 [Necklace Round] - 21 July

Post by maglor » Thu Jul 21, 2011 9:06 pm

hinakatbklyn wrote:
KholdStare88 wrote: If Kuroneko can barely beat Mio, I shudder to think how she will fare against Shana, who she hasn't faced yet. That almost guarantees a period where she won't be eligible.
(Aq) Azusa / (To) Yuki / (Am) Mikoto / (sap) Mio... It's unlikely Ruri can beat Kanade and Shana. If she doesn't win Sapphire, She would have only one more chance (when she faces Eucliwood) and hope she has a high enough SDO to contend.
Warning : Math Alert! Run for your lives !!



All these discussion hinges upon one important factor we need to discuss more : Who are the current top 8 and, more importantly, what is the order of actual strength. As an answer I believe in, I have a formula for this which I haven't found easy way to implement. Perhaps one of you might be an Excel / spreadsheet whiz who can program this quickly.

First all involved variables needs to be normalized, that is divided by the largest absolute value found among the 50 contestants . ( Please note that abs(-200) = 200, while abs(+150 ) = 150 , and in this case we want 200, not 150.

Actual Strength = .2 * overall ( SDO + SAO + VD ) + 0.1 * Recent 25% ( SDO + SAO + VD )

Recent 25% means SDO, SAO, and VD calculated only from the latest 25% of the matches rounded up. Since we have 28 matches finished, luckily that Recent 25% coincide exactly with Sapphire Necklace period record. Sadly, this luck only holds for this particular time of the year, only.

This formula will usually give you Actual character strength from 0 to 1 ( The contestant with most negative VD is likely to have the highest SAO thus their effects will cancel barring an unusual situation ) . If you pit 2 characters and their actual strength value differs by 0.05 or more, then the one with higher value will very likely win unless some small miracle happens. If the size of the difference is less than 0.05, then it is anyone's game so it would be wise not to predict who wins in such match.

SO

1. Make that table of actual strength for the 50 characters.
2. Check how many characters Kuroneko have not met is a sure win against Kuroneko. If this number is 3 or bigger, then we can say that Sapphire is Kuroneko's last opportunity to go 7 - 0.
3. Check how many characters are sure win against Shana. If there is someone shana hasn't meet that has the sure win number, Shana will very likely suffer another loss in the regular season. Same goes for Azusa as well.
4. The character with better actual strength number will likely do better in the Necklace Group stage as well. Thus if a contestant who will hand Kuroneko ( or Shana ) a sure loss also happens to be someone who hasn't won the necklace, and there are 3 or more of these contestants, you can forget about her necklace chance.

So, will someone do the Excel work for this?
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Re: VOTING: 2011 Sapphire 8 [Necklace Round] - 21 July

Post by Ahasuerus » Thu Jul 21, 2011 9:07 pm

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Surprise! Passing over the squabbling girls Victorique moes down the competition, towering over them all! :onion6:

'course, she won't win, but I'm satisfied voting with my heart rather than cold numbers (rewatching Gosick, so...)
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Re: VOTING: 2011 Sapphire 8 [Necklace Round] - 21 July

Post by RatedRKO619305 » Thu Jul 21, 2011 9:49 pm

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Re: VOTING: 2011 Sapphire 8 [Necklace Round] - 21 July

Post by ezboi » Thu Jul 21, 2011 9:51 pm

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Re: VOTING: 2011 Sapphire 8 [Necklace Round] - 21 July

Post by Rena Ryuugu » Thu Jul 21, 2011 10:06 pm

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Re: VOTING: 2011 Sapphire 8 [Necklace Round] - 21 July

Post by LightTwo » Thu Jul 21, 2011 10:11 pm

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Re: VOTING: 2011 Sapphire 8 [Necklace Round] - 21 July

Post by loudmouth » Thu Jul 21, 2011 10:20 pm

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Re: VOTING: 2011 Sapphire 8 [Necklace Round] - 21 July

Post by Marinara » Thu Jul 21, 2011 10:48 pm

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Re: VOTING: 2011 Sapphire 8 [Necklace Round] - 21 July

Post by HibariKyoya » Thu Jul 21, 2011 10:59 pm

ARENA 01-Nakano AzusaGokō Ruri (Kuroneko)Katsura HinagikuShanaSuzumiya HaruhiAisaka TaigaVictorique de Blois
ARENA 02-Ogata RinaNakagawa KanonEdomae LunarHoshina UtauHanato KobatoLynn MinmayAthena Glory
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Re: VOTING: 2011 Sapphire 8 [Necklace Round] - 21 July

Post by Team Rocket Elite » Thu Jul 21, 2011 11:20 pm

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Re: VOTING: 2011 Sapphire 8 [Necklace Round] - 21 July

Post by Val » Thu Jul 21, 2011 11:21 pm

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Re: VOTING: 2011 Sapphire 8 [Necklace Round] - 21 July

Post by tkout » Thu Jul 21, 2011 11:26 pm

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Re: VOTING: 2011 Sapphire 8 [Necklace Round] - 21 July

Post by ilkaid » Thu Jul 21, 2011 11:27 pm

ARENA 01-Nakano AzusaGokō Ruri (Kuroneko)Katsura HinagikuShanaSuzumiya HaruhiAisaka TaigaVictorique de Blois
ARENA 02-Ogata RinaNakagawa KanonEdomae LunarHoshina UtauHanato KobatoLynn MinmayAthena Glory
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Re: VOTING: 2011 Sapphire 8 [Necklace Round] - 21 July

Post by Momento10 » Thu Jul 21, 2011 11:53 pm

Viva la Shana.
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ARENA 01-Nakano AzusaGokō Ruri (Kuroneko)Katsura HinagikuShanaSuzumiya HaruhiAisaka TaigaVictorique de Blois
ARENA 02-Ogata RinaNakagawa KanonEdomae LunarHoshina UtauHanato KobatoLynn MinmayAthena Glory
ARENA 03-Tsukuyomi KomoeYamanaka SawakoKuroi NanakoTanizaki YukariRebecca MiyamotoFujimura TaigaKatsura Yukiji
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ARENA 05-Ayanami ReiShiomiya ShioriChiiHōsen ElisArurūTomoe MamiEnma Ai
Last edited by Momento10 on Fri Jul 22, 2011 12:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: VOTING: 2011 Sapphire 8 [Necklace Round] - 21 July

Post by Eater-of-All » Thu Jul 21, 2011 11:56 pm

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ARENA 01: Nakano Azusa [Gokō Ruri (Kuroneko)] Katsura Hinagiku Shana Suzumiya Haruhi Aisaka Taiga Victorique de Blois
ARENA 02: Ogata Rina Nakagawa Kanon Edomae Lunar Hoshina Utau [Hanato Kobato] Lynn Minmay Athena Glory
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Supporting Kuroneko for Sapphire.
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Re: VOTING: 2011 Sapphire 8 [Necklace Round] - 21 July

Post by Aria.H » Fri Jul 22, 2011 12:07 am

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Re: VOTING: 2011 Sapphire 8 [Necklace Round] - 21 July

Post by shiraoky » Fri Jul 22, 2011 12:29 am

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Re: VOTING: 2011 Sapphire 8 [Necklace Round] - 21 July

Post by lighteningsky » Fri Jul 22, 2011 12:45 am

ARENA 01-Nakano AzusaGokō Ruri (Kuroneko)Katsura HinagikuShanaSuzumiya HaruhiAisaka TaigaVictorique de Blois
ARENA 02-Ogata RinaNakagawa KanonEdomae LunarHoshina UtauHanato KobatoLynn MinmayAthena Glory
ARENA 03-Tsukuyomi KomoeYamanaka SawakoKuroi NanakoTanizaki YukariRebecca MiyamotoFujimura TaigaKatsura Yukiji
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