ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Locked
User avatar
Chocola
Hikarin's Kitty
Hikarin's Kitty
Posts: 7449
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2009 3:31 am
Worships: Kousaka Reina
Melon Pan: 50
2017 Female Favorite: Karasuma Chitose
2017 Male Favorite: Killua Zoldyck
Wish: Hikachu to not hate me

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Post by Chocola » Fri Jun 05, 2009 1:04 am

After Sapphire 2:

Image

Simul is getting better.
ImageImageImage
ImageImageImage
MAL Ratings ISML Chat, Saimoe Blog, Saimoe Wiki
A tall, towering wall looms in front of me. Beyond that is something that I could never to see on my own.
And that is...the view from the top.
User avatar
Demi.
Intelligent device
Intelligent device
Posts: 1371
Joined: Sat Feb 21, 2009 2:27 am
Worships: Fate Testarossa
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: To hug Fate-chan

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Post by Demi. » Fri Jun 05, 2009 1:20 am

Well that's no fun.
Image
User avatar
Fate
Moon princess
Moon princess
Posts: 3377
Joined: Wed Feb 18, 2009 3:44 am
Badges:
Image
Worships: Fate Testarossa
Melon Pan: 105
2018 Female Favorite: Aisaka Taiga
2018 Male Favorite: Sakata Gintoki
2017 Female Favorite: Fate Testarossa
2017 Male Favorite: Sakata Gintoki
Wish: Perpetual joy for friends and family
Location: Fate's bed
Contact:

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Post by Fate » Fri Jun 05, 2009 1:26 am

minhty must be pro predictor.
Image
ImageALL HAIL FATE T. HARLAOWN!Image
[url=irc://irc.rizon.net/Feitoism]#Feitoism @ irc.rizon.net[/url]
User avatar
imbehindyou
Time traveler
Time traveler
Posts: 1558
Joined: Thu Feb 19, 2009 11:33 am
Worships: Rena
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: Becoming Pokemon Master.  Wishes for: Becoming teh Master Hater.  Wishes for: James' Victreebel & Mime Jr. Secret Identity: I am a robot. 
Location: behind you

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Post by imbehindyou » Fri Jun 05, 2009 1:34 am

No, why, why simulator?
Well, at least that means no loss. :D
Image
User avatar
ithekro
Strike witch
Strike witch
Posts: 1229
Joined: Thu Feb 19, 2009 6:44 pm
Badges:
Image
Melon Pan: 50

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Post by ithekro » Fri Jun 05, 2009 2:09 am

All the weirdness balanced out the system I guess.
Image
Space Opera
User avatar
Eater-of-All
Dragon slayer
Dragon slayer
Posts: 2305
Joined: Wed Feb 18, 2009 2:07 am
Badges:
Image
Melon Pan: 65
Contact:

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Post by Eater-of-All » Fri Jun 05, 2009 3:21 am

Team Rocket Elite wrote:Suigintou, Shinku and Suiseseki looked as strong as ever in Sapphire 1. The 9-0 characters aren't that much higher than their nearest competition. A couple hundred votes is enough to change the result and they usually only need to change one.
I've been kinda betting on Sapphire retaining most of Amethyst's non-RM vote base actually, not for the votes to drop 800+. The point was, because of the departure of some of the RM voters, top-tiers who has their previous strength is going to give them so much trouble that if they cannot SDO like someone with an IQ of 200, then their precious dolls are doomed to fail. Yet what I hadn't foresaw was the proportional drop in the non-RM vote base also. If this low vote turnout continues, then even half of Amethyst's RM faction is sufficient for near-complete domination, and my predictions are obviously as likely to come true as hoping for my toilet to spontaneously start speaking and spout out hilarious jokes that can shame a comedian.

So yes, I'm probably wrong on most, if not all, of my analyses prior to Amethyst 2. -_-
Image
SpoilerShow
Image
User avatar
chaosprophet
Shinigami
Shinigami
Posts: 2415
Joined: Wed Feb 18, 2009 8:33 pm
Badges:
Image
Worships: Evangeline McDowell
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: Future UQ Holder anime adaptation is done right.
Location: Brasil
Contact:

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Post by chaosprophet » Fri Jun 05, 2009 4:44 am

.... how mint was able to recieve that many points if the simul was right??
Image
User avatar
Juice
Thaumaturge
Thaumaturge
Posts: 413
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2009 3:10 am
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: To successfully guide students on their path.
Location: Republic of Texas
Contact:

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Post by Juice » Fri Jun 05, 2009 5:03 am

OK. Since no one probably read this, I'm going to quote KholdStare to ease some unsettling Point differentials.
KholdStare88 wrote:EDIT: Never mind hold on.

Also, it has come to my attention that contestant minhtam1638 has not followed my directions which led to incorrect input into the fantasy script, resulting in lower initial scores than normal. I didn't fix his scores for in the first two scoresheets, so don't pay attention to his +/-.[emphasis added]
So Contestant minhtam1638 has had his score adjusted to it's current, accurate value. Let's say his +/- is ALSO Saki-like at +/- 0.0000. ;)
New Saimoe Podcast!
GTO--an inspiration to my next stage in life.
Image
User avatar
Chocola
Hikarin's Kitty
Hikarin's Kitty
Posts: 7449
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2009 3:31 am
Worships: Kousaka Reina
Melon Pan: 50
2017 Female Favorite: Karasuma Chitose
2017 Male Favorite: Killua Zoldyck
Wish: Hikachu to not hate me

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Post by Chocola » Sun Jun 07, 2009 1:08 am

After Sapphire 3:

Image

Once again, the Simulator proves to be a formidable opponent. Remember when it was getting -6 to -8? :D
ImageImageImage
ImageImageImage
MAL Ratings ISML Chat, Saimoe Blog, Saimoe Wiki
A tall, towering wall looms in front of me. Beyond that is something that I could never to see on my own.
And that is...the view from the top.
User avatar
Fate
Moon princess
Moon princess
Posts: 3377
Joined: Wed Feb 18, 2009 3:44 am
Badges:
Image
Worships: Fate Testarossa
Melon Pan: 105
2018 Female Favorite: Aisaka Taiga
2018 Male Favorite: Sakata Gintoki
2017 Female Favorite: Fate Testarossa
2017 Male Favorite: Sakata Gintoki
Wish: Perpetual joy for friends and family
Location: Fate's bed
Contact:

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Post by Fate » Sun Jun 07, 2009 1:12 am

I keep dropping. x__x;

Blah.
Image
ImageALL HAIL FATE T. HARLAOWN!Image
[url=irc://irc.rizon.net/Feitoism]#Feitoism @ irc.rizon.net[/url]
User avatar
Sakurei
Bandit
Bandit
Posts: 72
Joined: Sun May 31, 2009 12:57 pm
Worships: Fate Testarossa (& Flandre Scarlet)
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: to become better at everything x)
Contact:

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Post by Sakurei » Sun Jun 07, 2009 1:14 am

and I won't get up xD don't worry fate, you'll never be last ;P
Image
User avatar
Eater-of-All
Dragon slayer
Dragon slayer
Posts: 2305
Joined: Wed Feb 18, 2009 2:07 am
Badges:
Image
Melon Pan: 65
Contact:

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Post by Eater-of-All » Sun Jun 07, 2009 1:22 am

Woot, I managed to rise.
KholdStare88 wrote:Once again, the Simulator proves to be a formidable opponent. Remember when it was getting -6 to -8? :D
Makes it all the more fun when the time comes to climb over Simul. :D
Image
SpoilerShow
Image
User avatar
Fate
Moon princess
Moon princess
Posts: 3377
Joined: Wed Feb 18, 2009 3:44 am
Badges:
Image
Worships: Fate Testarossa
Melon Pan: 105
2018 Female Favorite: Aisaka Taiga
2018 Male Favorite: Sakata Gintoki
2017 Female Favorite: Fate Testarossa
2017 Male Favorite: Sakata Gintoki
Wish: Perpetual joy for friends and family
Location: Fate's bed
Contact:

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Post by Fate » Sun Jun 07, 2009 1:23 am

In search of a protip: how are you guys such pro predictors? t_t
Image
ImageALL HAIL FATE T. HARLAOWN!Image
[url=irc://irc.rizon.net/Feitoism]#Feitoism @ irc.rizon.net[/url]
User avatar
imbehindyou
Time traveler
Time traveler
Posts: 1558
Joined: Thu Feb 19, 2009 11:33 am
Worships: Rena
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: Becoming Pokemon Master.  Wishes for: Becoming teh Master Hater.  Wishes for: James' Victreebel & Mime Jr. Secret Identity: I am a robot. 
Location: behind you

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Post by imbehindyou » Sun Jun 07, 2009 1:27 am

Yay I didn't drop.

Eh, I don't know, I just predicted RM characters to have good records. And I consider when new OVAs come out etc etc.

Speaking of that, To Love Ru OVA 2 came out, I heard. Whether Yami has much appearance or not, it should boost her.. or it should've if the voting population was not tactical voting the whole thing.
Image
User avatar
Cecaniah
Artisan
Artisan
Posts: 791
Joined: Wed Feb 18, 2009 2:06 am
Melon Pan: 50

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Post by Cecaniah » Sun Jun 07, 2009 1:29 am

imbehindyou wrote:Yay I didn't drop.

Eh, I don't know, I just predicted RM characters to have good records. And I consider when new OVAs come out etc etc.

Speaking of that, To Love Ru OVA 2 came out, I heard. Whether Yami has much appearance or not, it should boost her.. or it should've if the voting population was not tactical voting the whole thing.
It's out, not subbed yet though.
Signature by Me.
Image
Ikaros is <3~! Please support her in ISML with nominations and votes~!
User avatar
imbehindyou
Time traveler
Time traveler
Posts: 1558
Joined: Thu Feb 19, 2009 11:33 am
Worships: Rena
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: Becoming Pokemon Master.  Wishes for: Becoming teh Master Hater.  Wishes for: James' Victreebel & Mime Jr. Secret Identity: I am a robot. 
Location: behind you

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Post by imbehindyou » Sun Jun 07, 2009 1:39 am

Cecaniah wrote:It's out, not subbed yet though.
I see.

Anyway, and I also knew when new Higurashi OVA episode would come out.
So I kinda tried to incorporate when they will have some boost etc etc into my predictions.

And of course kinda base my predictions on past results, ranks, overall ranks, period ranks, etc.
I can't use fancy numbers stuff, so just whatever my heart tells me to do ~_~
Image
User avatar
CrowKenobi
Cherry blossom
Cherry blossom
Posts: 952
Joined: Wed Feb 18, 2009 5:58 am
Melon Pan: 50
Location: Whatever time plane/dimension I'm in now...
Contact:

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Post by CrowKenobi » Sun Jun 07, 2009 2:02 am

Well, there goes Hinagiku winning the necklace... Image

Now down to just Yuki and Fate...
ImageImageImageImage
what might have been...Show
Image
Thanks to Marinara for the avatar and sigs.
User avatar
Chocola
Hikarin's Kitty
Hikarin's Kitty
Posts: 7449
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2009 3:31 am
Worships: Kousaka Reina
Melon Pan: 50
2017 Female Favorite: Karasuma Chitose
2017 Male Favorite: Killua Zoldyck
Wish: Hikachu to not hate me

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Post by Chocola » Sun Jun 07, 2009 2:08 am

Fate wrote:In search of a protip: how are you guys such pro predictors? t_t
You know how I post performances after every round right? (Well, maybe you don't.) I'd say go with what you think, but if you have a doubt, use my performance rankings. IRC veterans are already abusing my prediction script.
ImageImageImage
ImageImageImage
MAL Ratings ISML Chat, Saimoe Blog, Saimoe Wiki
A tall, towering wall looms in front of me. Beyond that is something that I could never to see on my own.
And that is...the view from the top.
User avatar
Eater-of-All
Dragon slayer
Dragon slayer
Posts: 2305
Joined: Wed Feb 18, 2009 2:07 am
Badges:
Image
Melon Pan: 65
Contact:

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Post by Eater-of-All » Sun Jun 07, 2009 2:35 am

I do take factors such as Haruhi S2, Hayate S2, HiguRei, and most prominently, the gradual loss of voters' memories (aka Clannad's fading strength) into account, but numbers are the element that make up the bulk of my predictions.

First, I compare the two contestents' previous period standings (because I hate overall standings). If they're less than 25 ranks apart, then I compare their SDO relative to their SAO. I hardly trust this step though, and even less now with the RM faction going around tactical voting, so then I look at SAO and VD. Things can sometimes stop here with a clear difference between VDs, but there are many cases where I go anal and decide to consider VF, VA, VD, and SAO together. Going more indepth, I also examine the two individual contestents' period matchups to calculate the amount of potential rape or tactics involved. Finally, if all else fails, I start to analyze the two's specific performance against various opponents starting with the previous period's round 9, then round 8, so on. To date, I've only managed to reach a match where I had to use results from round 7.

Suffice to say, don't expect to finish your predictions with my methods without at least 6 hours to burn. :lol:
Image
SpoilerShow
Image
User avatar
Demi.
Intelligent device
Intelligent device
Posts: 1371
Joined: Sat Feb 21, 2009 2:27 am
Worships: Fate Testarossa
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: To hug Fate-chan

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Post by Demi. » Sun Jun 07, 2009 2:43 am

I just use my gutt feeling and abuse Khold's PFM ratings, sometimes...

This period my gutt feeling told me RM faction would do lots of tactical voting, and thus...I was lead astray.

Well, I'll be sure to predict things with logic next time, like I did back in Topaz and Amethyst.
Image
Locked