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Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Posted: Fri Jun 05, 2009 1:04 am
by Chocola
After Sapphire 2:

Image

Simul is getting better.

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Posted: Fri Jun 05, 2009 1:20 am
by Demi.
Well that's no fun.

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Posted: Fri Jun 05, 2009 1:26 am
by Fate
minhty must be pro predictor.

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Posted: Fri Jun 05, 2009 1:34 am
by imbehindyou
No, why, why simulator?
Well, at least that means no loss. :D

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Posted: Fri Jun 05, 2009 2:09 am
by ithekro
All the weirdness balanced out the system I guess.

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Posted: Fri Jun 05, 2009 3:21 am
by Eater-of-All
Team Rocket Elite wrote:Suigintou, Shinku and Suiseseki looked as strong as ever in Sapphire 1. The 9-0 characters aren't that much higher than their nearest competition. A couple hundred votes is enough to change the result and they usually only need to change one.
I've been kinda betting on Sapphire retaining most of Amethyst's non-RM vote base actually, not for the votes to drop 800+. The point was, because of the departure of some of the RM voters, top-tiers who has their previous strength is going to give them so much trouble that if they cannot SDO like someone with an IQ of 200, then their precious dolls are doomed to fail. Yet what I hadn't foresaw was the proportional drop in the non-RM vote base also. If this low vote turnout continues, then even half of Amethyst's RM faction is sufficient for near-complete domination, and my predictions are obviously as likely to come true as hoping for my toilet to spontaneously start speaking and spout out hilarious jokes that can shame a comedian.

So yes, I'm probably wrong on most, if not all, of my analyses prior to Amethyst 2. -_-

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Posted: Fri Jun 05, 2009 4:44 am
by chaosprophet
.... how mint was able to recieve that many points if the simul was right??

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Posted: Fri Jun 05, 2009 5:03 am
by Juice
OK. Since no one probably read this, I'm going to quote KholdStare to ease some unsettling Point differentials.
KholdStare88 wrote:EDIT: Never mind hold on.

Also, it has come to my attention that contestant minhtam1638 has not followed my directions which led to incorrect input into the fantasy script, resulting in lower initial scores than normal. I didn't fix his scores for in the first two scoresheets, so don't pay attention to his +/-.[emphasis added]
So Contestant minhtam1638 has had his score adjusted to it's current, accurate value. Let's say his +/- is ALSO Saki-like at +/- 0.0000. ;)

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2009 1:08 am
by Chocola
After Sapphire 3:

Image

Once again, the Simulator proves to be a formidable opponent. Remember when it was getting -6 to -8? :D

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2009 1:12 am
by Fate
I keep dropping. x__x;

Blah.

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2009 1:14 am
by Sakurei
and I won't get up xD don't worry fate, you'll never be last ;P

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2009 1:22 am
by Eater-of-All
Woot, I managed to rise.
KholdStare88 wrote:Once again, the Simulator proves to be a formidable opponent. Remember when it was getting -6 to -8? :D
Makes it all the more fun when the time comes to climb over Simul. :D

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2009 1:23 am
by Fate
In search of a protip: how are you guys such pro predictors? t_t

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2009 1:27 am
by imbehindyou
Yay I didn't drop.

Eh, I don't know, I just predicted RM characters to have good records. And I consider when new OVAs come out etc etc.

Speaking of that, To Love Ru OVA 2 came out, I heard. Whether Yami has much appearance or not, it should boost her.. or it should've if the voting population was not tactical voting the whole thing.

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2009 1:29 am
by Cecaniah
imbehindyou wrote:Yay I didn't drop.

Eh, I don't know, I just predicted RM characters to have good records. And I consider when new OVAs come out etc etc.

Speaking of that, To Love Ru OVA 2 came out, I heard. Whether Yami has much appearance or not, it should boost her.. or it should've if the voting population was not tactical voting the whole thing.
It's out, not subbed yet though.

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2009 1:39 am
by imbehindyou
Cecaniah wrote:It's out, not subbed yet though.
I see.

Anyway, and I also knew when new Higurashi OVA episode would come out.
So I kinda tried to incorporate when they will have some boost etc etc into my predictions.

And of course kinda base my predictions on past results, ranks, overall ranks, period ranks, etc.
I can't use fancy numbers stuff, so just whatever my heart tells me to do ~_~

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2009 2:02 am
by CrowKenobi
Well, there goes Hinagiku winning the necklace... Image

Now down to just Yuki and Fate...

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2009 2:08 am
by Chocola
Fate wrote:In search of a protip: how are you guys such pro predictors? t_t
You know how I post performances after every round right? (Well, maybe you don't.) I'd say go with what you think, but if you have a doubt, use my performance rankings. IRC veterans are already abusing my prediction script.

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2009 2:35 am
by Eater-of-All
I do take factors such as Haruhi S2, Hayate S2, HiguRei, and most prominently, the gradual loss of voters' memories (aka Clannad's fading strength) into account, but numbers are the element that make up the bulk of my predictions.

First, I compare the two contestents' previous period standings (because I hate overall standings). If they're less than 25 ranks apart, then I compare their SDO relative to their SAO. I hardly trust this step though, and even less now with the RM faction going around tactical voting, so then I look at SAO and VD. Things can sometimes stop here with a clear difference between VDs, but there are many cases where I go anal and decide to consider VF, VA, VD, and SAO together. Going more indepth, I also examine the two individual contestents' period matchups to calculate the amount of potential rape or tactics involved. Finally, if all else fails, I start to analyze the two's specific performance against various opponents starting with the previous period's round 9, then round 8, so on. To date, I've only managed to reach a match where I had to use results from round 7.

Suffice to say, don't expect to finish your predictions with my methods without at least 6 hours to burn. :lol:

Re: ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2009 2:43 am
by Demi.
I just use my gutt feeling and abuse Khold's PFM ratings, sometimes...

This period my gutt feeling told me RM faction would do lots of tactical voting, and thus...I was lead astray.

Well, I'll be sure to predict things with logic next time, like I did back in Topaz and Amethyst.