ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

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Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by Sphire » Mon Oct 13, 2014 11:47 pm

Kholdy wrote:
Bastion wrote:So now we're going to have two tiara-winners not subject to the new rules. One from the first generation, one from the second. Wonder if only one will survive this before it changes again.
Mathematically, everything works out to as before. The volatility of the new system is dampened by the effects of the Swiss System in Postseason 1, so it will normalize the ranks. The new scoring system is not designed to mess with ranks #1-10 of each division because they can't be sniped out of postseason, but to increase interest near the end of regular season when in the past everything was pretty much decided except for 16th place. This way, ranks #12-20 are largely unknown and can be shaken up by a few snipes.
That sounds good, I just can't personally get my head around how things will turn out (and I don't want to attempt to apply it to 2014), so I'll just see how it is next year. Some volatility sounds nice too. Solid arguments put forth really.
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Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by clannad » Tue Oct 14, 2014 12:23 am

Dear ISML sponiors,

I totally agreed with Minhtam1638. I joined the ISML game since 2009-2010 and became one of the most important people who built up and prompted the ISML related tieba in baidu and propagated this game. Though I am not in charging of any rights for baidu tieba anymore, I think I can still represents some parts of the Chinese voter's opinion. Usually I hardly directly say something on this forum but this time I REQUEST the sponsors seriously consider what I am saying. ISML is JUST an animate-characters voting game. It's NOT a tools or data for SOMEONE's math modeling experiment. A lot of Chinese voters have already bored with the rules changed year and year. Some of them quitted and others became only focusing on the max profit of their loved roles. They already forgot the origin meaning of this game. Those who only want to enjoy the game become less and less. From these years of my experience, the ISML lose more voters by the year-by-year changed complicated rules rather than the long plain period. The Japanese Moe Tournament is already on the decline just due to the sponsor changing rules and inordinate intervening the game. My opinion is ISML should back to the simplest rule and competition format. 2014 operation system was already bad/maturity enough and next year's plan will only make things worse. Not only mainland China but Hong Kong and Taiwan, majority of people dislike recent 1-2 years rules change.

Also give one of my plan:
The competes rounds still keep this format. The winner get 3 pts and loser get 0 pts. If one match's VD is less than 1% then it treated as a tie, each candidate get 1 pts. The candidate who has more pts will rank higher, if they have same pts, face-to face result will determine it. If no face-to-face match in a certain period then higher VF percentage candidate will rank higher. Very simple rules just like the soccer or basketball. REMEMBER, for the sponsors there's one thing and ONLY one thing to do: provide a fair environment for players, then it's ok.

BTW FOR THE RULES CHANGE ESPECIALLY THE OPERATIONS CHANGES, the Baidu tieba has already made some new discussion topic and got hundreds of replies. I have reviewed all of them and found that almost all evaluation are negative. If needed I can translate them on the origin pages and paste them here in pictures.

Thanks for reviewing my post.
Best regards,
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Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by clannad » Tue Oct 14, 2014 12:32 am

I know your points is that you want some new, chaos, excited matches and results. You think that will prompt the long boring regular season and avoid that the middle periods lost voter's attention. The end of the season will more interesting too. For a few fixed sponsors, if no new things come out, even those people will feel bored. BUT please believe me, that will only leads ISML to a wrong direction. Stable is the most important thing for a long-term event.
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Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by Chocola » Tue Oct 14, 2014 12:38 am

@clannad: This is NOT someone's math modeling experiment. I'm not sure where you got that idea from. This is an idea that we have carefully planned out and already tested with 2014 data. We're using it in 2015 because we are COMPLETELY SURE that it will make more exciting matches in Regular Season --AND-- not change Postseason because of the Swiss format. Please review all information accordingly, especially the one about how this scoring system would NOT work if Postseason 1 uses straight single-elimination instead of a Swiss system.

We are also thinking long term. Under the existing Regular Season format, ISML will become stagnant and voters will leave. We see year after year people ignoring Regular Season and only stop by during Postseason. You see lots of voters in Aquamarine and then a sudden drop, because they find Regular Season boring. By making for a more exciting Regular Season, we believe that new voters will enjoy it more and stay for the entire duration of the year. Once again, this system will NOT affect Postseason in the way that you think.
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Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by clannad » Tue Oct 14, 2014 1:28 am

Kholdy wrote:@clannad: This is NOT someone's math modeling experiment. I'm not sure where you got that idea from. This is an idea that we have carefully planned out and already tested with 2014 data. We're using it in 2015 because we are COMPLETELY POSITIVE that it will make more exciting matches in Regular Season --AND-- not change Postseason because of the Swiss format. Please review all information according, especially the one about how this scoring system would NOT work if Postseason 1 was not using a Swiss format but instead straight single-elimination.

We are also thinking long term. Under the existing Regular Season format, ISML will become stagnant and voters will leave. By making for a more exciting Regular Season, we believe that new voters will enjoy it more and stay for the entire duration of the year. Once again, this system will NOT affect Postseason in the way that you think.

Hmm what I mean it's not a problem whether the rules will work. I never mentioned it will impact the Postseason as well. It's the problem that people dislike the sponsors intervene and change the game year-by-year. Especially under the circumstances that Japan Moe Tournament is in decline. Thats just because the sponsors control the game more and more. I admit that the rules maybe work well on 2014 data but the ISML should focus on the voters rather than results. If we keep a simple rules and operations, indeed we will lose some voters who feel bored every year due to the fixed tournament, but we will also have new voters who know the ISML first year.They don't know how ISML works before so they will not get bored. But if we continuously change and change, Those already disappointed people will tell the newcomers not devoted in this game because you never know what the sponsor will change again.

For example. Since 2008 to 2011, we only introduced SDO to determine the necklace winner and all other operations almost had no big changes. But the total votes increased from 1000+ to 15000+. Since 2011-2014 every year we changed a lot, nova and stalla, especially on 2013/2014 with the score system changed. But we had an obviously vote decrease and some matches even got fewer votes compared to 2010. I think the sponsors should have learnt the experienced and lessons...

I don't know sponsors here got how much information or talked to how many people already to make a decision. After all this forum is a very small environment for the ISML. In most cases it cannot reflect the whole situation. What I stayed are two tieba with 3 million and 13 million posts where people can talked about ISML. For the East-South Asia, especially mainland China+Hong Kong+Taiwan+Malaysia, it controls a high percentages of the total votes.I have met and talked to hundreds or thousands of people who played this game in these years. Just like I said above, the new topic discussing this new operations got hundreds of replies and almost all of them are negative.

Then I don't know how to discuss because from your information acquired you believe it's COMPLETELY POSITIVE but for my experience I believe it will have a COMPLETELY NEGATIVE influence on the ISML.
I am sorry
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Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by Chocola » Tue Oct 14, 2014 1:46 am

I will quote what I said in the other thread,
Kholdy wrote:I believe that these are the last changes ISML needs to maintain balanced participation throughout all phases of the competition. You have my word that there will be very minimal changes from now on, and 2015 will have the last big change.
I understand where you are coming from. The staff introduce changes every year, so some may think we're "manipulating" the tournament when some people understand we are trying our best to make it better. We believe that these will be the last major changes this tournament needs, and we promise you that after 2015 we will leave everything as it is. The changes are a result of everything we have observed from the start of the tournament, and if we could go back in time to 2008 we would do it this way. After these changes, there will be nothing else to ever change.
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Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by maglor » Tue Oct 14, 2014 2:44 am

clannad wrote:
For example. Since 2008 to 2011, we only introduced SDO to determine the necklace winner and all other operations almost had no big changes. But the total votes increased from 1000+ to 15000+. Since 2011-2014 every year we changed a lot, nova and stalla, especially on 2013/2014 with the score system changed. But we had an obviously vote decrease and some matches even got fewer votes compared to 2010. I think the sponsors should have learnt the experienced and lessons...
I'm afraid I have to dispute the numbers here. If we look at Overall average for the ENTIRE YEAR, 2013 had the highest average per match. 2014 is the first year when we had decrease in overall average, and most likely reason is that the captcha somehow drove off votes. If we look only in matches where we did not have the captcha, 2014 was on pace to exceed 2013 in terms of average per match.

While some may argue that all the changes promote chaos, the key major consideration into all the changes are how well it can promote and protect the lower 70% of the characters. The old rules, and I'm afraid most of the proposed alternatives heavily favor only the top 10% of the characters. We wish to give the lower 70% better chance to make their case to the general public even very late in the regular season. An alternative may be shorter regular season, abandoning the round-robin system, but given how much people value the necklace, I doubt this is feasible anymore. We felt that best compromise is the system that let's the late periods have more meaning compared to the current system.
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Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by avery-kun » Tue Oct 14, 2014 4:52 am

Kholdy wrote:
[*]The Necklace Formula will no longer use SDO, but rather PSAO.

-PSAO is defined as Partial Score of All Opponents, and is calculated by (Pts/21)*SAO.
-The formula will be PSAO/2 + NGP%, with NGP% being Necklace Group Percentage.
Lessening of the impact of schedule of necklace points??!! :onion6:
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Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by maglor » Tue Oct 14, 2014 4:58 am

avery-kun wrote:
Kholdy wrote:
[*]The Necklace Formula will no longer use SDO, but rather PSAO.

-PSAO is defined as Partial Score of All Opponents, and is calculated by (Pts/21)*SAO.
-The formula will be PSAO/2 + NGP%, with NGP% being Necklace Group Percentage.
Lessening of the impact of schedule of necklace points??!! :onion6:
As you can see here, overall impact of schedule related matter will be lessened : viewtopic.php?f=2&t=5373#p282450" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by clannad » Tue Oct 14, 2014 5:11 am

maglor wrote:
clannad wrote:
For example. Since 2008 to 2011, we only introduced SDO to determine the necklace winner and all other operations almost had no big changes. But the total votes increased from 1000+ to 15000+. Since 2011-2014 every year we changed a lot, nova and stalla, especially on 2013/2014 with the score system changed. But we had an obviously vote decrease and some matches even got fewer votes compared to 2010. I think the sponsors should have learnt the experienced and lessons...
I'm afraid I have to dispute the numbers here. If we look at Overall average for the ENTIRE YEAR, 2013 had the highest average per match. 2014 is the first year when we had decrease in overall average, and most likely reason is that the captcha somehow drove off votes. If we look only in matches where we did not have the captcha, 2014 was on pace to exceed 2013 in terms of average per match.

While some may argue that all the changes promote chaos, the key major consideration into all the changes are how well it can promote and protect the lower 70% of the characters. The old rules, and I'm afraid most of the proposed alternatives heavily favor only the top 10% of the characters. We wish to give the lower 70% better chance to make their case to the general public even very late in the regular season. An alternative may be shorter regular season, abandoning the round-robin system, but given how much people value the necklace, I doubt this is feasible anymore. We felt that best compromise is the system that let's the late periods have more meaning compared to the current system.

Ok you are correct we indeed get highest votes in 2013, but from 2009-2011 we had a very quick increase then from 2011-2013 we almost suddenly stopped. The number only got higher a little every year. In 2014 we dropped even much lower than 2011. Here I'm not oppugn the organizer's effort but want to leave a feedback about how people think in my area. As for maglor's points, we back to an old but haven't resolved question again. Should the organizer defend the fair environment of the game or defend the gameplay itself. From the 2012 we divided the nova and stella, the debate in tieba has never stopped. The most asked question is "why the sponsor protect the lower characters. If she is strong then she is strong. Why sponsors want to all players have same or similar performance? It offends the rules that the sponsors won't ‘intervene’ the game." I agree with this point. Probably in Europe and America people lose attention due to the boring regular season. But in Asia especially Chinese speaking area, people leave almost all due to "no longer believed with the sponsor as they change rule to harm a group of characters and protect another group" The against voice like "sponsor control the game in blackbox" louder and louder by years. It leading to a lot of people quit. Those who stayed also already changed their mind. They started to research every match to find a way to max their loved character's profit. I'll show some data. Chinese people can spend over $5k-10k dollars to rent servers to acquire tickets(votes) against each other to support different series in one years "Japan Moe Tournament. Though its not such expensive in ISML yet, it become more and more organized. I don't want to ISML become the second JMT. So I just want ISML back to the simplest game, no complicated score system, no protection, no level group...

Protect the gameplay itself(character and match) indeed will prompt the ISML in short period. The game will become more interesting; the score system will more attractive. But it will also leads more and more people doubt with the organizers when the years past. If all people support the sponsors, we will not afraid of nobody play it. But if majority of people don't like the organizer anymore, it will become the biggest problem.

Above is what I got from players(voter's) in these years. I just do a conclusion. Thanks
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Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by Kordosa » Tue Oct 14, 2014 5:16 am

[*]The Necklace Formula will no longer use SDO, but rather PSAO.

-PSAO is defined as Partial Score of All Opponents, and is calculated by (Pts/21)*SAO.
-The formula will be PSAO/2 + NGP%, with NGP% being Necklace Group Percentage.
So it's come to the point where new acronyms and mathematical formulas are added each year in order to attempt to obfuscate the potential ways the more mathematically inclined voters have to manipulate results. And the voters who don't have a college math degree are shit out of luck if they simply want to support their favorite characters. Excellent.

If this trend of mathematical escalation continues, it will only be a matter of time until there will be a full disconnect between the original intentions of a moe contest and a pure numbers game.
dczmydc wrote:And, in my opinion, this kind of complex mathematics model can't be used in the point system. This is a voting game, not a math modeling problem.
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Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by clannad » Tue Oct 14, 2014 5:18 am

As almost no Chinese players reply posts here(except those a few focused on data), I think a lot of voice and concerns cannot be known by you guys sponsors. The big environment has also changed a lot. Damn my english is poor so I cannot make it more specific, otherwise I have much more information want to tell.
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Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by Chocola » Tue Oct 14, 2014 5:20 am

Kordosa wrote:
[*]The Necklace Formula will no longer use SDO, but rather PSAO.

-PSAO is defined as Partial Strength of All Opponents, and is calculated by (Pts/21)*SAO.
-The formula will be PSAO/2 + NGP%, with NGP% being Necklace Group Percentage.
So it's come to the point where new acronyms and mathematical formulas are added each year in order to attempt to obfuscate the potential ways the more mathematically inclined voters have to manipulate results. And the voters who don't have a college math degree are shit out of luck if they simply want to support their favorite characters. Excellent.

If this trend of mathematical escalation continues, it will only be a matter of time until there will be a full disconnect between the original intentions of a moe contest and a pure numbers game.
dczmydc wrote:And, in my opinion, this kind of complex mathematics model can't be used in the point system. This is a voting game, not a math modeling problem.
You do realize that SAO has been present since 2009, right? So there's nothing new. That was before I got my college math degree. Hell, my major was still physiology. In fact we're removing SDO as a stat, which simplifies our situation. NGP% may look scary, but it's literally the vote percentage you get from the necklace match. Pure tally numbers.

EDIT: Let me take this moment to speak in normal language terms and no math abbreviations. SAO = Strength of All Opponents. It measures how strong the opponents you faced in a period. That's it. For the necklace, we are using that simple SAO stat, so the stronger the opponents you faced = the higher score you get.

EDIT2: Math people are known to make simple ideas into complicated expressions. That's my bad. The idea behind SAO is as simple as it gets.
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Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by avery-kun » Tue Oct 14, 2014 5:25 am

maglor wrote:
avery-kun wrote:
Kholdy wrote:
[*]The Necklace Formula will no longer use SDO, but rather PSAO.

-PSAO is defined as Partial Score of All Opponents, and is calculated by (Pts/21)*SAO.
-The formula will be PSAO/2 + NGP%, with NGP% being Necklace Group Percentage.
Lessening of the impact of schedule of necklace points??!! :onion6:
As you can see here, overall impact of schedule related matter will be lessened : viewtopic.php?f=2&t=5373#p282450" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
MY PRAYERS HAVE BEEN ANSWERED!
Last edited by avery-kun on Tue Oct 14, 2014 5:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by Srysama » Tue Oct 14, 2014 5:26 am

To make it more chaos, why not randomly assign 1% to 35% onto each match during regular season instead of putting them in order from Aquamarine to Topaz? Fans will be told the steal percentage only after each match finished. They will feel nervous during voting time and have to pay full attention to every match unless all the remaining steal percentages are small enough.
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Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by clannad » Tue Oct 14, 2014 5:41 am

Ok I'll conclude something simple. Now the ISML in Asia especially Chinese people region(Mainland, Hong kong,Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia, philippines, including Canada) are on the wrong way.
I hope there will be a way to resolve it.

Sponsors change rules every year, usually make it more complicated ——→ people doubt why sponsor do that, why protection, why unfair ——→ no proper way to negotiate (theres a big faultage between sponsor and players due to language and culture) ——→ people don't believe sponsor anymore ——→ people quit, those who stayed focused more on the technique ——→ more directivity vote ——→ sponsor need change more rules to defend the game

That the current problem. Indeed every year from Tieba, we have less newcomers and more "technicians" to play this game.
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Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by Desufire » Tue Oct 14, 2014 5:47 am

Srysama wrote:To make it more chaos, why not randomly assign 1% to 35% onto each match during regular season instead of putting them in order from Aquamarine to Topaz? Fans will be told the steal percentage only after each match finished. They will feel nervous during voting time and have to pay full attention to every match unless all the remaining steal percentages are small enough.
Now that's an idea I can get behind. Have like a random draw every round. The opponents are randomly decided and the % won is randomly decided. This works for 100% chaos.
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Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by Chocola » Tue Oct 14, 2014 5:59 am

clannad wrote:Ok I'll conclude something simple. Now the ISML in Asia especially Chinese people region(Mainland, Hong kong,Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia, philippines, including Canada) are on the wrong way.
I hope there will be a way to resolve it.

Sponsors change rules every year, usually make it more complicated ——→ people doubt why sponsor do that, why protection, why unfair ——→ no proper way to negotiate (theres a big faultage between sponsor and players due to language and culture) ——→ people don't believe sponsor anymore ——→ people quit, those who stayed focused more on the technique ——→ more directivity vote ——→ sponsor need change more rules to defend the game

That the current problem. Indeed every year from Tieba, we have less newcomers and more "technicians" to play this game.
First, I really appreciate your input. You understand that we are changing the rules to defend exploits. And I understand your concerns. I want to say that by using PSAO, we will get rid of "SDO manipulation", which was the main concern for people to mathematically help their characters win necklaces. (Perhaps I should have made this clear earlier.) I want to repeat that these changes I feel are the final changes needed for ISML, and the ISML staff promises to introduce no more big changes in the future. Consider this the finalized version of ISML, and any future changes will only be minor bug tweaks.
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Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by maglor » Tue Oct 14, 2014 6:02 am

Desufire wrote:
Srysama wrote:To make it more chaos, why not randomly assign 1% to 35% onto each match during regular season instead of putting them in order from Aquamarine to Topaz? Fans will be told the steal percentage only after each match finished. They will feel nervous during voting time and have to pay full attention to every match unless all the remaining steal percentages are small enough.
Now that's an idea I can get behind. Have like a random draw every round. The opponents are randomly decided and the % won is randomly decided. This works for 100% chaos.
Few problem with random percentage

1. If it is revealed after the match is over, we really will have accusations about the staff fixing the results
2. The increase in percentage is to counteract all the importance earlier matches have. If we use random, some of the earlier matches will have even more importance over later matches, compared to the current year.
3. We need some balance in the schedule distribution to make sure we get cases which will give a lucky few tremendous advantage over others who are close to them in strength level. While we can live with the voters wrecking havoc with the well-intentioned system, we can't have the system itself be the major source of trouble, favoring one set of characters tremendously compared to another set of characters.
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maglor
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Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by maglor » Tue Oct 14, 2014 6:06 am

To further elaborate about PSAO part, let's look at the formula again

PSAP = ( pts / 21 ) * SAO

Now, to significantly manipulate SAO, you need to somehow change outcome of at least 6 matches, given that you have 7 opponents who will have up to 42 matches that doesn't involve your favorite. In contrast, to significantly "manipulate" the Pts part, all you need is to affect the outcome of at least one match. It may be argued that it is more important to ensure your favorite wins as many times as possible, compared to any SAO manipulations
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