ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

The news blog has official ISML News. This forum is for additional news or news from other parts of the ISML Community.
User avatar
Chocola
Hikarin's Kitty
Hikarin's Kitty
Posts: 7462
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2009 3:31 am
Badges:
Worships: Kousaka Reina
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: Hikachu to not hate me

Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by Chocola » Tue Oct 14, 2014 6:25 am

maglor wrote:To further elaborate about PSAO part, let's look at the formula again

PSAP = ( pts / 21 ) * SAO

Now, to significantly manipulate SAO, you need to somehow change outcome of at least 6 matches, given that you have 7 opponents who will have up to 42 matches that doesn't involve your favorite. In contrast, to significantly "manipulate" the Pts part, all you need is to affect the outcome of at least one match. It may be argued that it is more important to ensure your favorite wins as many times as possible, compared to any SAO manipulations
What maglor is trying to say, without all of the math, is that the era of people manipulating necklace eligibility/winners, such as with the SDO stat, is over.
ImageImageImage
ImageImageImage
MAL Ratings, ISML Discord, Saimoe Blog, Saimoe Wiki
A tall, towering wall looms in front of me. Beyond that is something that I could never to see on my own.
And that is...the view from the top.
User avatar
Kordosa
Soul gem
Soul gem
Posts: 4073
Joined: Mon Apr 19, 2010 3:35 am
Worships: Moriya Suwako's hat
Melon Pan: 50
2019 Female Favorite: Sakurajima Mai
2019 Male Favorite: Eugeo
2018 Female Favorite: Yamada Elf
2018 Male Favorite: Willem Kmetsch
Wish: A third season of Spice and Wolf.
Location: Mississippi, USA
Contact:

Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by Kordosa » Tue Oct 14, 2014 6:25 am

Kholdy wrote:
Kordosa wrote:
[*]The Necklace Formula will no longer use SDO, but rather PSAO.

-PSAO is defined as Partial Strength of All Opponents, and is calculated by (Pts/21)*SAO.
-The formula will be PSAO/2 + NGP%, with NGP% being Necklace Group Percentage.
So it's come to the point where new acronyms and mathematical formulas are added each year in order to attempt to obfuscate the potential ways the more mathematically inclined voters have to manipulate results. And the voters who don't have a college math degree are shit out of luck if they simply want to support their favorite characters. Excellent.

If this trend of mathematical escalation continues, it will only be a matter of time until there will be a full disconnect between the original intentions of a moe contest and a pure numbers game.
dczmydc wrote:And, in my opinion, this kind of complex mathematics model can't be used in the point system. This is a voting game, not a math modeling problem.
You do realize that SAO has been present since 2009, right? So there's nothing new. That was before I got my college math degree. Hell, my major was still physiology. In fact we're removing SDO as a stat, which simplifies our situation. NGP% may look scary, but it's literally the vote percentage you get from the necklace match. Pure tally numbers.

EDIT: Let me take this moment to speak in normal language terms and no math abbreviations. SAO = Strength of all Opponents. It measures how strong the opponents you faced in a period. That's it. For the necklace, we are using that simple SAO stat, so the stronger the opponents you faced = the higher score you get.

EDIT2: Math people are known to make simple ideas into complicated expressions. That's my bad. The idea behind SAO is as simple as it gets.
I wasn't really singling out SAO itself. The general concepts behind most of the column headers on the stats page are easy enough to understand by themselves (thanks to the alt text), but my concern was that math and logic were starting to become more important to a contest that was originally intended to be ruled by the heart. Yes, I'm aware that what I just typed is overly dramatic, and yes, I do understand that ranking five dozen characters fairly will undoubtedly take a certain amount of calculations, but the concern is still there.

I read your reply to clannad, so I'm probably worrying about nothing. To me, it's a given that the Staff only wants what's best for ISML, so I'll just shut up and wait to see how the new system works.

Edit:
Kholdy wrote:What maglor is trying to say, without all of the math, is that the era of people manipulating necklace eligibility/winners, such as with the SDO stat, is over.
This is even more reassuring. Here's hoping none of the other values will be susceptible to the same kind of manipulation.
QuotesShow
Cirno wrote:*sinister laugh* Winning by only 47 votes is all part of my master plan. Now everyone will think I'm weak when, in fact, I'm the strongest. And then, when they least expect it, I'll strike back and take over the entire ISML. It's foolproof. Hahahaha, I'm such a genius!
Crisu wrote:And, of course, never merge an anti-cookie with a normal cookie. Serious consequence will occur.
shiraoky wrote:I'm always squeeing lol.
Metaler wrote:Seriously, if you're gonna do something badly, then don't bother doing it. It's like when you take a dump: you don't show it to other people specifically because it's shit!
Kordosa wrote:Protip: If a male high school student character is voiced by a female seiyuu, there is a 100% probability that that character will be forced to crossdress at some point.
User avatar
Chocola
Hikarin's Kitty
Hikarin's Kitty
Posts: 7462
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2009 3:31 am
Badges:
Worships: Kousaka Reina
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: Hikachu to not hate me

Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by Chocola » Tue Oct 14, 2014 6:30 am

We're able to claim "no future major changes" because of a few reasons. We believed that with scenarios like Fate, Shana, Kanade, and Mio/Kotori, we've "seen" most of the "extremes" or "worst cases" of each situation, and how to account for those cases that doesn't break the system. That's why we can say that our new scoring system is volatile such that that no matter what contestant will be in ISML in the future, it will make regular season exciting, yet keep postseason eligibility fair enough so that no one misses out on their chance.

EDIT: Note that "worst case scenario" is used here purely as a stat term. It doesn't imply any of the situations above are BAD in any way.
ImageImageImage
ImageImageImage
MAL Ratings, ISML Discord, Saimoe Blog, Saimoe Wiki
A tall, towering wall looms in front of me. Beyond that is something that I could never to see on my own.
And that is...the view from the top.
User avatar
Kordosa
Soul gem
Soul gem
Posts: 4073
Joined: Mon Apr 19, 2010 3:35 am
Worships: Moriya Suwako's hat
Melon Pan: 50
2019 Female Favorite: Sakurajima Mai
2019 Male Favorite: Eugeo
2018 Female Favorite: Yamada Elf
2018 Male Favorite: Willem Kmetsch
Wish: A third season of Spice and Wolf.
Location: Mississippi, USA
Contact:

Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by Kordosa » Tue Oct 14, 2014 7:09 am

One other thing before I forget. Will the new scoring system not promote a Hurt/Heal dynamic? Strong continual anti-voting might be hard to overcome since it seems from this system, the gap between points will become larger and larger as the tournament continues. Just wondering how abusable this system might be.
QuotesShow
Cirno wrote:*sinister laugh* Winning by only 47 votes is all part of my master plan. Now everyone will think I'm weak when, in fact, I'm the strongest. And then, when they least expect it, I'll strike back and take over the entire ISML. It's foolproof. Hahahaha, I'm such a genius!
Crisu wrote:And, of course, never merge an anti-cookie with a normal cookie. Serious consequence will occur.
shiraoky wrote:I'm always squeeing lol.
Metaler wrote:Seriously, if you're gonna do something badly, then don't bother doing it. It's like when you take a dump: you don't show it to other people specifically because it's shit!
Kordosa wrote:Protip: If a male high school student character is voiced by a female seiyuu, there is a 100% probability that that character will be forced to crossdress at some point.
User avatar
Chocola
Hikarin's Kitty
Hikarin's Kitty
Posts: 7462
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2009 3:31 am
Badges:
Worships: Kousaka Reina
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: Hikachu to not hate me

Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by Chocola » Tue Oct 14, 2014 7:15 am

The hurt/heal system is linear and this one is not. For example, if you anti-vote someone many times, she loses less and less points (even with increasing percentage), and one organized win from her fans will get her back all those points much more quickly than the time it took to anti-vote her down.
ImageImageImage
ImageImageImage
MAL Ratings, ISML Discord, Saimoe Blog, Saimoe Wiki
A tall, towering wall looms in front of me. Beyond that is something that I could never to see on my own.
And that is...the view from the top.
User avatar
Reverend
~Planetarian~
~Planetarian~
Posts: 4163
Joined: Sat Aug 16, 2014 8:26 pm
Badges:
ImageImage
Worships: Sofia Jalapeno Viviage
Melon Pan: 4
Wish: To die... ASAP.

Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by Reverend » Tue Oct 14, 2014 7:27 am

Kholdy wrote:The hurt/heal system is linear and this one is not. For example, if you anti-vote someone many times, she loses less and less points (even with increasing percentage), and one organized win from her fans will get her back all those points much more quickly than the time it took to anti-vote her down.
lesson of the day: don't hate them too much, just weaken them to the point of vengeance cannot be exacted #Machiavelli =P
Giving his love for life, and died dreaming about her in the end. A real happy man, right? ~
User avatar
Homura
[Apprentice Magician]
[Apprentice Magician]
Posts: 3121
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2013 3:25 am
Badges:
Melon Pan: 55
2020 Female Favorite: Shiina Mashiro
2020 Male Favorite: Lelouch Lamperouge
2019 Female Favorite: Makise Kurisu
2019 Male Favorite: Levi
2018 Female Favorite: Makise Kurisu
2018 Male Favorite: Yukihira Sōma
Location: China

Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by Homura » Tue Oct 14, 2014 7:46 am

After having read through all discussions in these couple of threads, I can only hope that in the future more people will be able to read English and come to this forum to see what our staff is concerning. People complain all the time simply because they know nothing about what our staff is really doing except hearing some disputed decisions having been made. Gaining understanding is a long term process, but thx for keeping working hard for ISML (though there may be disagreements sometimes).
User avatar
Chocola
Hikarin's Kitty
Hikarin's Kitty
Posts: 7462
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2009 3:31 am
Badges:
Worships: Kousaka Reina
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: Hikachu to not hate me

Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by Chocola » Tue Oct 14, 2014 8:22 am

It makes me happy to see you say that. I think our main worry is that we hear people accuse us of staff manipulation in places (you know where), when we're actually just trying our best to balance fair and excitement. It's a very delicate balance. We can make things extremely fair and have the entire tournament be even more repetitive than it is now, and everything is decided by complicated performance formulas, but no one wants that. We can also make everything random with random seeding, random groups, and random brackets like AST, but we're not trying to copy them either. We have to think of something new, fun, and fair at the same time, so please bear with us!
ImageImageImage
ImageImageImage
MAL Ratings, ISML Discord, Saimoe Blog, Saimoe Wiki
A tall, towering wall looms in front of me. Beyond that is something that I could never to see on my own.
And that is...the view from the top.
User avatar
clannad
Dango daikazoku
Dango daikazoku
Posts: 55
Joined: Tue Jun 08, 2010 12:18 pm
Worships: Nagato Yuki
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: The "disapperance of Suzumiya Haruhi"
gets the champion of 2011
Location: Beijing.China

Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by clannad » Tue Oct 14, 2014 10:34 pm

Kholdy wrote:The hurt/heal system is linear and this one is not. For example, if you anti-vote someone many times, she loses less and less points (even with increasing percentage), and one organized win from her fans will get her back all those points much more quickly than the time it took to anti-vote her down.
OK here is another part I concerned. Just like the former post you replied to me "Staff are changing rules to defend exploits". But no matter how the rules seemed to be balanced and perfect, it still have problems because its "manually adjusted". Now the new plan leads to a situation " The same character has different value in different rounds due to she has different scores and different system parameter in each round" Then the voters will calculate how to make the biggest profit for a certain character. We never lack of those crazy fans and those who studied math in Univ. Even if they need to do something in 10 matches per round, they will do it to archive the goal. Then it will only leads to more "technicians" to join.

In 2008-2009, nobody did any math calculate because only VD decided the results. All voters needed to do was vote more and more for their character. When the SDO was introduced, they began to consider how their character can have more SDO; then they started to vote for not only their character but their character's teammates to win. When "decimal fraction" score was introduced, they even started to vote for the teammates losers to close the VD(because less VD means higher pts when losing). I think that's not a correct way for playing ISML. Believe me, every time the staff introduced a new thing to "balance" the game, some people will immediately (even in a few hours or minutes) research on it to find and break the balance for their character. I also studied math major in Univ. but I am only a very low level reckoner in their group. So no matter how the staff's new "adjusted" rules seemed to be effective and fair, The voters will find something wiser to offend the rules.

For example: just like this sentence you mentioned above "if you anti-vote someone many times, she loses less and less points (even with increasing percentage), and one organized win from her fans will get her back all those points much more quickly than the time it took to anti-vote her down" It seems to be fair for the character who got anti, but I promise what I say below will happen:
A will match with C in Am period and B will match C in Em. Then B's voter will anti C in Am to lower the A's score profit. When Am period ends, B will help C to win and prompt her score quickly. After that when Em starts, B can get much profit on the win to C compared with A"
Thats the new problem.

For my points, if we really want avoid different kinds of exploits, the best way is not adjust more items and rules to balance but leave a pure simple environment with no adjusted rules and operations. The game should be randomized then everyone's win is an equal win; everyone's lose is an equal lose, no matter the VF/VA/VD. The winners always higher than the loser, the stronger is stronger. Then all voters focused back only to their character again.

Thanks for reviewing the post. :smile:
User avatar
clannad
Dango daikazoku
Dango daikazoku
Posts: 55
Joined: Tue Jun 08, 2010 12:18 pm
Worships: Nagato Yuki
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: The "disapperance of Suzumiya Haruhi"
gets the champion of 2011
Location: Beijing.China

Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by clannad » Tue Oct 14, 2014 10:48 pm

Kholdy wrote:We're able to claim "no future major changes" because of a few reasons. We believed that with scenarios like Fate, Shana, Kanade, and Mio/Kotori, we've "seen" most of the "extremes" or "worst cases" of each situation, and how to account for those cases that doesn't break the system. That's why we can say that our new scoring system is volatile such that that no matter what contestant will be in ISML in the future, it will make regular season exciting, yet keep postseason eligibility fair enough so that no one misses out on their chance.

EDIT: Note that "worst case scenario" is used here purely as a stat term. It doesn't imply any of the situations above are BAD in any way.
In fact I just don't want ISML become worse, because here is still very pure and warm. Almost no "extremes" or "worst cases" happened in these years. You don't know how crazy those Chinese fans who played JMT around the world. They have not changed their focus into ISML. But even with their small actions, Fate and Hina grab the 08/09 tiara, otherwise if no those groups intervene, the results would be totally different. After all staff cannot know who voted the tickets and what they did only by the server data"
User avatar
Homura
[Apprentice Magician]
[Apprentice Magician]
Posts: 3121
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2013 3:25 am
Badges:
Melon Pan: 55
2020 Female Favorite: Shiina Mashiro
2020 Male Favorite: Lelouch Lamperouge
2019 Female Favorite: Makise Kurisu
2019 Male Favorite: Levi
2018 Female Favorite: Makise Kurisu
2018 Male Favorite: Yukihira Sōma
Location: China

Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by Homura » Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:27 pm

Btw Kholdy, if the new scoring system doesn't work well next year, don't be afraid to introduce another big change. Though you've promised, I believe people who truly like ISML will understand you guys' decision. However at that time, I hope you can really take clannad's genuine advice into your consideration. thx
User avatar
Chocola
Hikarin's Kitty
Hikarin's Kitty
Posts: 7462
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2009 3:31 am
Badges:
Worships: Kousaka Reina
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: Hikachu to not hate me

Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by Chocola » Wed Oct 15, 2014 12:18 am

Thanks for everyone that has been said so far, and I will keep it in mind. It seems to be that the main concern now is that a multivoter finds a way to to boost his favorite character and exploit the system. I think you guys have underestimated our vote-checking abilities. We have an extremely robust system that can detect anything people throw at us. However, clannad's concern is about legitimate voters finding ways to beat the system. That is, I argue, part of the reason why we implemented this. We want there to be chaos and excitement. You are still under the "most fair system" impression, which is better using the current method. But as I said in the previous post, my goal is to also introduce excitement in voting, which means faction voting and strategic voting are okay during regular season, which is the period we need to generate more excitement. We have a large amount of voters right now that one faction can no longer dictate things such as in 2008 and 2009. When one acts, another will find a way to react. Scores will normalize in the end, but regular season will be much more exciting.

Postseason, however, is not crazy and is just regular single-elimination, because that's when we want accuracy and complete fairness.
ImageImageImage
ImageImageImage
MAL Ratings, ISML Discord, Saimoe Blog, Saimoe Wiki
A tall, towering wall looms in front of me. Beyond that is something that I could never to see on my own.
And that is...the view from the top.
User avatar
minhtam1638
Phantom
Phantom
Posts: 740
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2009 4:50 am
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: An endless supply of Coca-Cola. Tax free.
Location: Bridgeport, Connecticut

Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by minhtam1638 » Wed Oct 15, 2014 1:54 am

I just thought I'd bring it up for conversation, but does anybody remember regular season 2009? The one where Aquamarine and Topaz set the tone, and then Amethyst blew it up in our faces? That's been sort of been missing for the past four to five years.
Image
User avatar
10ZHAbin
Spirit hunter
Spirit hunter
Posts: 2161
Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2012 9:13 am
Badges:
ImageImage
Worships: Leina
Melon Pan: 50
Location: Otaku Community

Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by 10ZHAbin » Wed Oct 15, 2014 3:45 am

Should we use the guys as guinea pigs first and see how people feels about it at the end?
User avatar
Chocola
Hikarin's Kitty
Hikarin's Kitty
Posts: 7462
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2009 3:31 am
Badges:
Worships: Kousaka Reina
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: Hikachu to not hate me

Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by Chocola » Wed Oct 15, 2014 9:02 am

After careful consideration, we are dropping the new scoring system idea for the Nova and Stella divisions, and applying it to the Male division only. This is not a test trial, because no matter what happens next year, that scoring system will never be applied to the Nova and Stella divisions (as the primary scoring method). Here are some reasons why:
  • We want the Male Division to have some differences from the Female Division.
  • Voters are already familiar with the current scoring method for the Female Divisions. It might be too confusing to change it now.
  • This is not a slight to the Male Division. I am 100% positive that this system is completely balanced and will lead to excitement as well as fairness. The main reasons are the points I described above.
  • We believe that the ToC addition, plus the SDO/PSAO change, will provide more excitement each period because they allow for less predictable necklace matches.
  • We hope that voters will watch new anime and participate in the seasonal tournament that happens during Topaz so that Topaz won't be as boring.
ImageImageImage
ImageImageImage
MAL Ratings, ISML Discord, Saimoe Blog, Saimoe Wiki
A tall, towering wall looms in front of me. Beyond that is something that I could never to see on my own.
And that is...the view from the top.
User avatar
Reverend
~Planetarian~
~Planetarian~
Posts: 4163
Joined: Sat Aug 16, 2014 8:26 pm
Badges:
ImageImage
Worships: Sofia Jalapeno Viviage
Melon Pan: 4
Wish: To die... ASAP.

Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by Reverend » Wed Oct 15, 2014 9:17 am

won't it be confusing if there are two scoring system?
male and female is already enough differences for me...

btw, for voters already familiar with the current scoring... actually, you just have to force the new system and I'm sure they get used to it
(it's like rising price for gas in middle-income country; first they complain, then after some time (and a lot of media playing, perhaps) they end up supporting it)
Giving his love for life, and died dreaming about her in the end. A real happy man, right? ~
User avatar
Chocola
Hikarin's Kitty
Hikarin's Kitty
Posts: 7462
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2009 3:31 am
Badges:
Worships: Kousaka Reina
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: Hikachu to not hate me

Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by Chocola » Wed Oct 15, 2014 9:28 am

Basically, they will never be convinced why starting at 1% and ending at 35% is "balanced" or "fair" without being explained with a lot of math. I've given up trying to convince these people that this scoring system works. It stays for the male division because I want at least ONE division where things are not completely boring. Maybe voters will see how interesting the male division is and regret their opposition. Who knows?
ImageImageImage
ImageImageImage
MAL Ratings, ISML Discord, Saimoe Blog, Saimoe Wiki
A tall, towering wall looms in front of me. Beyond that is something that I could never to see on my own.
And that is...the view from the top.
User avatar
10ZHAbin
Spirit hunter
Spirit hunter
Posts: 2161
Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2012 9:13 am
Badges:
ImageImage
Worships: Leina
Melon Pan: 50
Location: Otaku Community

Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by 10ZHAbin » Wed Oct 15, 2014 9:46 am

So we are now opting for chaos in males and peace in female?
User avatar
Reverend
~Planetarian~
~Planetarian~
Posts: 4163
Joined: Sat Aug 16, 2014 8:26 pm
Badges:
ImageImage
Worships: Sofia Jalapeno Viviage
Melon Pan: 4
Wish: To die... ASAP.

Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by Reverend » Wed Oct 15, 2014 9:50 am

Kholdy wrote:Basically, they will never be convinced why starting at 1% and ending at 35% is "balanced" or "fair" without being explained with a lot of math. I've given up trying to convince these people that this scoring system works. It stays for the male division because I want at least ONE division where things are not completely boring. Maybe voters will see how interesting the male division is and regret their opposition. Who knows?
lol, amen to that

well, everybody loves you here, Kholdy
so we'll support you whatever happens
:neko012: :neko012: :neko012:
Giving his love for life, and died dreaming about her in the end. A real happy man, right? ~
User avatar
Chocola
Hikarin's Kitty
Hikarin's Kitty
Posts: 7462
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2009 3:31 am
Badges:
Worships: Kousaka Reina
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: Hikachu to not hate me

Re: ISML 2015 - Operational Changes

Post by Chocola » Wed Oct 15, 2014 10:38 am

10ZHAbin wrote:So we are now opting for chaos in males and peace in female?
I'm opting for excitement in male so people can see what they're missing out. Too many people oppose the rule; no one trusts Kholdy.
ImageImageImage
ImageImageImage
MAL Ratings, ISML Discord, Saimoe Blog, Saimoe Wiki
A tall, towering wall looms in front of me. Beyond that is something that I could never to see on my own.
And that is...the view from the top.
Post Reply