Event Annoucements

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Event Annoucements

Post by Fuijiwara » Thu May 04, 2017 4:52 pm

This thread will serve as a one-stop hub for all ongoing forum events where you, the reader can participate in. Be it a Pokemon project or a forum-based tournament, there are tonnes of things for you to do here.


ONGOING EVENTS



Remember to keep a look out for new events as this thread will be updated regularly!
Last edited by Fuijiwara on Sun May 20, 2018 9:49 am, edited 16 times in total.
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maglor
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Re: Event Annoucements

Post by maglor » Fri May 12, 2017 11:07 pm

We really need volunteers for the contestant profiles. Please help out, even it is for just one batch of 5 to 8 characters.
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Re: Event Annoucements

Post by maglor » Tue Jul 04, 2017 7:17 pm

IRV explanation video is now available

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Re: Event Annoucements

Post by Chibasa » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:51 pm

Added 2 new events to the list, Casino and forumoe.
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Secret Santax Time
much more stuff than ToadyShow
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maglor
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Re: Event Annoucements

Post by maglor » Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:37 pm

2017 Open project

Currently, we have CVP = Cumulative Vote Points for 240+many many more that isn't completely updated. Some people are interested in completely updated CVP for everyone who appeared in any match for 2017. It would be nice if someone can manage to do this so we can have another data to chew on.

1. What is VP?

VP is calculated by dividing the votes a character has received in a match by average votes of all the characters involved in the same match day. Usually, a character will have VP that is between 0.5 to 1.5 in each match. In matches like regular season or elimination period this isn't hard to calculate. For example, if you are interested in VP Rem will get for the Tiara Match day, you calculate the average votes by adding votes number for all 40 ( Fourty ) characters, divide that sum by 40 to get the average votes, and then divide Rem's vote number of 6481 by that average vote number you have. All exhibition matches counts, which is why even exhibition characters can have VP numbers, thus CVP for the year. Two special cases exist. For Necklace matches, we can't use all 8 * 16 characters' 1st round numbers for the purpose, thus necklace and scepter arena will contribute only 2 numbers each, the number at the final round. Thus from Aquamarine Necklace round, only Rem's 2371 and Mashiro's 1733 counts for the VP Calculation. Wildcard rounds results are not used for VP, nor can Wildcard characters gain VP through wildcard rounds. This is because Wildcard arena is a multi winner arenas, that is affected by many factors different from single winner arenas. Another exception is the double character arenas as in Elimination 3 match of Fujibayashi Twins vs Deviluke twins. While for the average vote and vote points calculations, twins are considered as one single choice, thus there still are 40 vote numbers for the day. The difference is that each member of twins earn only half the vote points for the day when calculating CVP. This half VP clause only affects those in multicharacter arenas and no one else.

2. What is CVP?

CVP is simply sum of all VP a character received during 2017. Naturally, more matches a character participated, more VP a character earns. It is a useful tool to estimate an overall contribution to ISML a character has made in a year. It may roughly be related to the strength level of the character, but due to its sensitivity to character's opponents and any extraneous circumstances surrounding a match, it isn't a good number to rely upon unless a characters is involved in more than 10 matches that is mostly free of rematches. CVP is a harder number to manipulate compared to simple CVF=Cumulative Votes For the character, and has many other interesting good points. The problem is, it takes a decent amount of work to keep it updated, especially when a character may pop in for an exhibition match or two. What is currently missing from ISML's stat page is an "updated" CVP that includes VP from Elimination period, Divine Circlet/Crown matches, Necklace/Pendant matches, and CVP for seasonal and exhibition match characters. ( I would love to see CVP and CVP/number of matches = AVP( Average VP ) for Chtholly )

3. The desired format

The best format would be as follows

Character Name : Series Info : CVP : number of matches a character is involved in : CVP/number of matches : Wins : Draws : Losses : Final Rank : CVP Rank among females / males : CVP rank for every one, male or female, main tournament or others .

Now, this may be too hard or complicated, so, feel free to eliminate some of the columns mentioned above. Just having Character Name and CVP for the entire year would be good.

4. Rewards :

Respect and Honor. Possible mention as contributor in ISML Community tab if the work is of such a quality, we had to make major use of it. Lots of ISML currency ( which has less worth than Zimbabwe Dollars about a year ago, sadly ), a pretty signature/banner/picture of choice from one of ISML art staff if the work impresses one or more of them ( This is really a big if. Our art staff members are currently very busy with the posters so they may try to carve me up like a ham roast at this suggestion )
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Re: Event Annoucements

Post by maglor » Fri Dec 22, 2017 3:07 pm

2018 Open project : Measuring Uncertainty regarding match results

Much has been said about whether or not a character's performance in a match is expected, or unexpected. Though there can't be any perfect way of doing this, there can be a way to model expected uncertainties.

System : Random Walk is Random!!!

Reference : viewtopic.php?f=30&t=4506&start=138#p295666" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Modification : The end of this Pot Value experiment showed that while Pot Value was good at predicting the winner, it was not a good tool to predict the actual VF%. There also wasn't anyway to generate a expected variance. These problems will be remedied by the following methods. You must read the reference above to understand

(1) Use Linear Expectations instead of Pythagorean. Linear Expectation does poorer job in predicting the winner, but is more useful in generating expected VF%. This means the exponent will be 1 instead of 5, so

Amount of Match Pot earned by character A = Match Pot Value / [ 1 + ( Vote for character B / Vote for character A ) ]


(2) Introduce the variance by using N = 0.1 = 10%, N = 0.2 = 20%, and N = 0.5 = 50%. While every character will start off with score of 100, after even just one match, they will have 3 different Pot Values, which we will call "PV(0.1,x)" (using N=0.1), "PV(0.2,x)" (using N=0.2), and "PV(0.5,x)" (using N=0.5) . Note that PV(0.1) will change slowly while PV(0.5) will change rapidly. This is the key to the whole process.

Procedure

(1) All Contestants will have 3 scores. When a match is scheduled, the 3 scores will all be used when comparing 2 contestants, which can generate as many as 9 different expected VF%.

function explanation PV(i,x) = Pot Value for character x using N=i

Expected VF% for character A when matched against character B = PV(i,A)/[ PV(i,A)+PV(j,B) ] where i can be 0.1,0.2, or 0.5, and j can independently be 0.1,0.2, or 0.5

(2) For a match, the expected winner will be the character that majority of 9 different expected VF% predicted to be the winner. We will call this expected winner to be character A

(3) The FINAL expected VF% for the match is average of the 9 different expected VF% s for the character A. We will call this number FEV%

(4) The all important variability will be measured simply by calculating the STDEV for the 9 different expected VF% This number will be called STDV%

Request

(1) Start calculating PV(0.1), PV(0.2) and PV(0.5) for all the characters from Aquamarine round 1.
(2) At the end of Aquamarine period, announce the PV(0.1),PVS(0.2), and PV(0.5) for all 240 characters. By this time PV(0.1) and PV(0.2) would probably be very stable. PV(0.5) is designed to be volatile, thus stability is not expected
(3) Starting from 1st round of Topaz, post FEV% and STDV% in form of

FEV% +- STDV% for Character A

for all the matches of the day.

(4) When the results are announced , Calculated the Z-score of the match by

(ACTUAL VF% - FEV%)/STDV%

for all the matches. Please alert me to any match that shows |Z-score|>3 .

(5) Update the PV(0.1), PV(0.2), and PV(0.5) for all the characters and repeat the process for the next match

(6) Continue to do this until end of 2018 season

(7) If all the participants in an exhibition match has their PV(0.1), PV(0.2), and PV(0.5) score that has matured = has been updated by at least 5 match results, then please post predictions and also use the exhibition match results to update the character's S scores.

(8) Please do this for all the seasonal tournament characters who are in the semi-finals and beyond as well. This is because even though The Pot Value has not matured for these characters by the time semi-final starts, we really need some means to guess the expected "uncertainty" involved in these crucial matches

GOAL

The main goal of this exercise is to help all of us better understand the results, detect anomalies better, and better gauge how much of an anomaly it is. Too many matches in 2017 were decried as "unexpected" when it actually should have been expected. Also, too many matches slipped past our radar because we didn't realize how unusual that match result actually is. With this exercise, I hope to better keep track of unusual occurrences and invest time properly into matches that should be more carefully analyzed, instead of matches that is more talked about.
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Re: Event Annoucements

Post by Ennadai » Mon May 14, 2018 7:25 am

maglor wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 3:07 pm
2018 Open project : Measuring Uncertainty regarding match results
It's a spreadsheet for calculating Pot Values, please do tell me if there are any mistakes.
Cause I don't have time on my hands lately, the rest of the work might be done in early July.
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