RESULTS: 2014 Ruby 7

[HasbeenaHibiki]

And please let's end the myth of DaL faction and such. There's no DaL voting. There's Kurumi, Kotori and Yoshino vote.

Well, Let's ponder about this a bit with following data.

Correlation



Low

14 Highly correlated region of supports for DAL characters, 2 region of Medium correlated support, 3 regions of Low correlated support. You may give or take 1 or 2 regions for any of the three categories depending on how you will define high, medium, or Low.

Out of EVERYTHING. I only love Russia. Russia have some good taste.

I agree on that, even though it is ironic Kud is doing bad in Russia.

[Fuijiwara]

So then. Kaguya's here. Where's Fuijiwara? Time for some foe yay with Mokou.

Oh Kaguya, I would be delightful to obliterate your entire existence if I could, also you still owe me money for that massive yakitori party, you hikkimori

"What? That was 359 years ago. Let it go already, you pitiful excuse for a cigarette lighter." - Kaguya

''Oh ho, so the Moon Princess admits she does remember, despite her increasly OLD age, how wonderful, you want some brand new brain cells to go along with that ''fine memory of yours'', eh you pathetic excuse of a Prin- I mean royal whore" -Mokou

[Fuijiwara]

Isn't Laura a Russian?

I think they would support her more based on the fact.

Laura is German. But Nazis, Commies, they're all the same thing, right?

But Laura does seem more Russian than Ririchiyo, does she not?

[CureRainbow]

Damn, this thread exploded for quite a bit :O Anyways...

Ima start an Azu-nyan faction.
Who's with me?

this thread is getting more more weird

COUNT ME IN !

[Jiharo]

I guess only Progreusz understands what I'm saying, despite being rather obvious, or so I thought. .

More like. Most people are understanding what you say but still don't agree with you. I know reality can be harsh sometime.

-There's no large group of people supporting DaL as a series.

Yeah, yeah. As if.

Out of EVERYTHING. I only love Russia. Russia have some good taste.

In stella, yes. In nova, they're too much into chuu2byou for my taste. And while I agree with Charlotte Belew being rock bottom, Laura being above Richiyo is still a sin.

Well the only reason why I love Russia is cos Russia loves Eru. No other reason.

I share the same view as the bold response.

[Zefyris]

Again, proofs against excuses. There's no DaL faction, and vote overlapping is a concept so vague that makes no sense.

In most if not all cases, character from the same anime in ISML shares a good amount of their voters. What you're saying is that DaL is an exception. How about YOU present proof of it. Because until now, none of what you said prove anything. You think it does, but like I already explained earlier why basing your explanation on this didn't prove anything.

And....

If they are facts, then I wonder how you received the "true" vote data while I received the "false" vote data when I am doing the vote checking.

Frankly, there is a simpler explanation to all the votes I am seeing that almost always vote for Kotori, Kurumi, Yoshino, and Touka, instead of series voting or factions voting. Sorry that I can't tell you more due to security reasons. Wait! If what you said are facts, then the votes I saw during vote checking must all be fake votes, thus anything I say don't have any real security implications.

...I would say, /thread? Well, not /thread since that wasn't the thread's subject, but at the very least, it should close that topic. Thanks for your answer here. So DaL isn't an exception at all. And next match will the votes split. Will people gather again toward Kurumi like last time, I don't think so.
Anyway, voting KYH. I'm not a fan, but I still appreciate her as much as Kurumi, and more than the other contestants. And since it's her last chances and that DaL will split vote anyway, definitely don't see any better way to use my vote.

Isn't Laura a Russian?
I think they would support her more based on the fact.

As said above, she's german. Outside of that, Kud looks far more like the typical young russian girl as they're portrayed in anime (although she isn't either) ImO, and is almost dead last, so I don't think it has anything to do with their votes.

[Hajime Tanegashima]

What I'm saying is that in DaL, other things count more than sharing series. DaL is an exception, yes, but probably not the only one. In animes where only one character is strong in ISML, probably sharing anime benefits weak chars and gives them a tad of strength. Those weak chars' votes come from the strong one, and due to sharing anime. DaL has several strong characters that can appeal the fans for oher things than sharing an anime. DaL and any other animes like these don't have the same rules than most. And yes, my proofs sustaining what I said are perfectly valid. And that's why Kotori will get more Yoshino vote than Kurumi, because they share appeal traits, not because they share series. When you have important chars from the same series, you gotta go further than the anime they share to explain vote trading and such. It's clear, obvious, logical and proved. If you don't want to see it, I don't really care. As you said, I guess reality can be harsh at times, and more complicated than people would like.

[maglor]

What I'm saying is that in DaL, other things count more than sharing series. DaL is an exception, yes, but probably not the only one. In animes where only one character is strong in ISML, probably sharing anime benefits weak chars and gives them a tad of strength. Those weak chars' votes come from the strong one, and due to sharing anime. DaL has several strong characters that can appeal the fans for oher things than sharing an anime. DaL and any other animes like these don't have the same rules than most. And yes, my proofs sustaining what I said are perfectly valid. And that's why Kotori will get more Yoshino vote than Kurumi, because they share appeal traits, not because they share series. When you have important chars from the same series, you gotta go further than the anime they share to explain vote trading and such. It's clear, obvious, logical and proved. If you don't want to see it, I don't really care. As you said, I guess reality can be harsh at times, and more complicated than people would like.

All FIVE DAL characters frequently shows similar bumps in time-vote graph at the same time. Wonder why.








The above plot doesn't do proper justice to whole situation, I'm afraid. If you first calculate how many votes each character received in each hour, and then calculate the ratio of votes for a DAL character to the votes for their opponent, you often see decrease in this ratio near 16th hour, and very large increase in this ratio near 19th hour for all five DAL girls. This time pattern don't always appear, but it does appear more frequently compared to any other girls. I only selected those six matches as they were all matches of importance, but there are numerous other cases as well.

I welcome all of you to check this ratio for any girls in in match within this year. Perhaps you might find something I have been missing, or find enough cases to invalidate above case. When making your case, do know that there are match days where only one or none of the DAL girls show this bump, while other match days where three or more of DAL girls show this bump. Make sure you note whether you are looking at a case from a match day where DAL girls are mostly bumpless, or other match day where DAL girls have more bumps. The key reason is that, it is more likely that we are comparing same voters if we are looking at votes from same match day and same time, instead of looking at votes from different match day or different time.

[Kordosa]

So then. Kaguya's here. Where's Fuijiwara? Time for some foe yay with Mokou.

Oh Kaguya, I would be delightful to obliterate your entire existence if I could, also you still owe me money for that massive yakitori party, you hikkimori

"What? That was 359 years ago. Let it go already, you pitiful excuse for a cigarette lighter." - Kaguya

''Oh ho, so the Moon Princess admits she does remember, despite her increasly OLD age, how wonderful, you want some brand new brain cells to go along with that ''fine memory of yours'', eh you pathetic excuse of a Prin- I mean royal whore" -Mokou

"Hmph. You're as uncultured as ever. Like father, like daughter I guess. If this is the best his clan can do, then it's no wonder he couldn't fulfill my Impossible Requests."

[maglor]

Will people gather again toward Kurumi like last time, I don't think so.

hey! I may still see all the votes gather toward Kurumi.

[Kordosa]

@ maglor: This is a more general question out of curiosity rather than one concerning the existence or non-existence of a DAL faction.

Concerning the above time graphs, are these vote timing trends more or less consistent from country to country (implying that the actual amount of time left in a given round is more important to when people cast their votes ("oh no, I only have X hours until voting is over; I'd better vote now") , rather than what the local time is for their country for when the round expires)? In other words, does it seem like the majority of people vote based on "urgency" (relative to the ending time of the round) or on convenience (a voter casting their votes during leisure time, like after work/school) relative to their country of origin/timezone?

[maglor]

@ maglor: This is a more general question out of curiosity rather than one concerning the existence or non-existence of a DAL faction.

Concerning the above time graphs, are these vote timing trends more or less consistent from country to country (implying that the actual amount of time left in a given round is more important to when people cast their votes ("oh no, I only have X hours until voting is over; I'd better vote now") , rather than what the local time is for their country for when the round expires)? In other words, does it seem like the majority of people vote based on "urgency" (relative to the ending time of the round) or on convenience (a voter casting their votes during leisure time, like after work/school) relative to their country of origin/timezone?

In many cases you will see that only one of the two characters receive a bump at a given time. Some important bump times are 3rd hour, 12th hour, 16th hour, and 19th hour. See which character received a positive bump in any key time and see which countries the character won. You should see that the characters which receives 19th hour bump are mostly the same countries I have suggest high correlations in this post -> viewtopic.php?f=20&t=5050&start=60#p259447" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; . These evidence strongly suggest that the time of voting preference differs from a country to another country. There may be many reasons for it, and one of the plausible theory is that the time of vote increase in a region coincides with time that students are returning home from school. Sadly, ISML don't have a Saturday vote day which can show how valid this theory is, but evidence from Korea Best Moe strongly suggest that student-returning-home is a strong factor in vote influx rate, at least with Best Moe Tournament voters. Still, you can't rule out urgency factor as all countries show large vote numbers in first two and last two hour of voting.

This also has age-gender relations as well. Younger voters and female voters seems more influenced by convenience factors, compared to older or male voters. Each region's gender-age group have their own interesting peculiarities when it comes to the time they vote and who they will vote for. Sorry that I can't give you the concrete numbers because it can be misleading, and also be related to vote checking.

[Kordosa]

There may be many reasons for it, and one of the plausible theory is that the time of vote increase in a region coincides with time that students are returning home from school.

One theoretical way to study this would be to generate the above time charts based only on a certain region/time zone for a given match and compare it with the same match's time charts for an adjacent region/time zone. Europe, Africa, and Asia would probably be the easiest sections to compare since the regions take up a vast, unbroken area of the world. If there is a similar voting jump at roughly the same time (only changing in 1 hour/1 time zone increments as you go across the map), then that would provide some pretty concrete proof of this effect. By the way, I'm not saying you should do this and post it as that would have implications for the voting process, but the exercise itself and the insights it might reveal could be worth looking at regardless.

Sorry that I can't give you the concrete numbers because it can be misleading, and also be related to vote checking.

Once again, the intricate number crunching and exact values go over my head as I'm not a stats or higher math person. And I'm all for protecting the integrity of the voting process. I would be satisfied with just a general conclusion without the hard numbers.

[maglor]

There may be many reasons for it, and one of the plausible theory is that the time of vote increase in a region coincides with time that students are returning home from school.

One theoretical way to study this would be to generate the above time charts based only on a certain region/time zone for a given match and compare it with the same match's time charts for an adjacent region/time zone. Europe, Africa, and Asia would probably be the easiest sections to compare since the regions take up a vast, unbroken area of the world. If there is a similar voting jump at roughly the same time (only changing in 1 hour/1 time zone increments as you go across the map), then that would provide some pretty concrete proof of this effect. By the way, I'm not saying you should do this and post it as that would have implications for the voting process, but the exercise itself and the insights it might reveal could be worth looking at regardless.

You mentioned similar jumps in time for the same time zone. We do see that many East Asian countries are responsible for 19th hour bump, and 19th hour indeed is about the time students and workers come home in that time zone. Thus students come home factor does seem to be best human-only explanation for this bump. Since this was first seen in Best Moe tournament and correlated with support for characters in series like Gintama and Hitman Reborn!, it used to be called fangirl effect, or fangirl faction effect, though that no longer is the case in ISML, now.

[Fuijiwara]

So then. Kaguya's here. Where's Fuijiwara? Time for some foe yay with Mokou.

Oh Kaguya, I would be delightful to obliterate your entire existence if I could, also you still owe me money for that massive yakitori party, you hikkimori

"What? That was 359 years ago. Let it go already, you pitiful excuse for a cigarette lighter." - Kaguya

''Oh ho, so the Moon Princess admits she does remember, despite her increasly OLD age, how wonderful, you want some brand new brain cells to go along with that ''fine memory of yours'', eh you pathetic excuse of a Prin- I mean royal whore" -Mokou

"Hmph. You're as uncultured as ever. Like father, like daughter I guess. If this is the best his clan can do, then it's no wonder he couldn't fulfill my Impossible Requests."

"Like you were one to talk, you lazy pig, the fact that every single time you do something , you would always scream " Help me Eirin". With such maturity, it's no wonder the Lunarians all hated you, even your dear parents abandoned you, you little ballssack - smelling shit"

[Zefyris]

Will people gather again toward Kurumi like last time, I don't think so.

hey! I may still see all the votes gather toward Kurumi.

Well, yes, there's still several reasons for it to happen, I realize that. I just hope that this doesn't happen so that Kuroyukihime wins x']