RESULTS: 2017 Ruby 6

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Re: RESULTS: 2017 Ruby 6

Post by Homura » Sun Oct 22, 2017 8:47 am

Chibasa wrote: Only surprise today about necklace holder is Saber winning over Asuna and it's not linked to groups you're thinking about but campaign in social media.
Only surprise today about necklace holder is Saber winning over Asuna and it's likely not linked to groups you're thinking about but campaign in social media.

I believe that line sounds better with that little modification, it's kinda important in a situation like today's.
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Re: RESULTS: 2017 Ruby 6

Post by Brean2010 » Sun Oct 22, 2017 8:56 am

Brean2010 wrote: But in Saber case, I'm very skeptical about the fact that social media can raise 600 votes between five O'clock and six O'clock (after this strange bump we can see that the evolution of the curve are similar for Asuna and Saber). With a good campaign in social media the curve would be much more progressive because social media hit different countries with different timezones.
Homura wrote: Only surprise today about necklace holder is Saber winning over Asuna and it's likely not linked to groups you're thinking about but campaign in social media.

I believe that line sounds better with that little modification, it's kinda important in a situation like today's.
That doesn't change that It's very unlikely that social media can raise 600 votes between five O'clock and six O'clock and that is why I don't trust the theory of the good campaining in social media to explain this gap. A bump like this seems to be more due to a coordinate action from a group of people.
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Re: RESULTS: 2017 Ruby 6

Post by WankoMC » Sun Oct 22, 2017 9:02 am

Brean2010 wrote:
Brean2010 wrote: But in Saber case, I'm very skeptical about the fact that social media can raise 600 votes between five O'clock and six O'clock (after this strange bump we can see that the evolution of the curve are similar for Asuna and Saber). With a good campaign in social media the curve would be much more progressive because social media hit different countries with different timezones.
Homura wrote: Only surprise today about necklace holder is Saber winning over Asuna and it's likely not linked to groups you're thinking about but campaign in social media.

I believe that line sounds better with that little modification, it's kinda important in a situation like today's.
That doesn't change that It's very unlikely that social media can raise 600 votes between five O'clock and six O'clock and that is why I don't trust the theory of the good campaining in social media to explain this gap. A bump like this seems to be more due to a coordinate action from a group of people.
Uh, I dont know if it's just me but... where did you see that 600 votes? Because from what I check on the graph of Saber vs Asuna match, the raise between 5'o clock and 6'o clock is from 663 to 898, which is around 230 votes only.
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Re: RESULTS: 2017 Ruby 6

Post by Brean2010 » Sun Oct 22, 2017 9:08 am

WankoMC wrote:
Brean2010 wrote:
Brean2010 wrote: But in Saber case, I'm very skeptical about the fact that social media can raise 600 votes between five O'clock and six O'clock (after this strange bump we can see that the evolution of the curve are similar for Asuna and Saber). With a good campaign in social media the curve would be much more progressive because social media hit different countries with different timezones.
Homura wrote: Only surprise today about necklace holder is Saber winning over Asuna and it's likely not linked to groups you're thinking about but campaign in social media.

I believe that line sounds better with that little modification, it's kinda important in a situation like today's.
That doesn't change that It's very unlikely that social media can raise 600 votes between five O'clock and six O'clock and that is why I don't trust the theory of the good campaining in social media to explain this gap. A bump like this seems to be more due to a coordinate action from a group of people.
Uh, I dont know if it's just me but... where did you see that 600 votes? Because from what I check on the graph of Saber vs Asuna match, the raise between 5'o clock and 6'o clock is from 663 to 898, which is around 230 votes only.
Between five and seven or eight if you want but that don't change that it's not progressive and don't change my explenations about social media impact. And even a bump of 300 is already high.
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Re: RESULTS: 2017 Ruby 6

Post by WankoMC » Sun Oct 22, 2017 9:21 am

Brean2010 wrote:
WankoMC wrote:
Brean2010 wrote:
Brean2010 wrote: But in Saber case, I'm very skeptical about the fact that social media can raise 600 votes between five O'clock and six O'clock (after this strange bump we can see that the evolution of the curve are similar for Asuna and Saber). With a good campaign in social media the curve would be much more progressive because social media hit different countries with different timezones.
Homura wrote: Only surprise today about necklace holder is Saber winning over Asuna and it's likely not linked to groups you're thinking about but campaign in social media.

I believe that line sounds better with that little modification, it's kinda important in a situation like today's.
That doesn't change that It's very unlikely that social media can raise 600 votes between five O'clock and six O'clock and that is why I don't trust the theory of the good campaining in social media to explain this gap. A bump like this seems to be more due to a coordinate action from a group of people.
Uh, I dont know if it's just me but... where did you see that 600 votes? Because from what I check on the graph of Saber vs Asuna match, the raise between 5'o clock and 6'o clock is from 663 to 898, which is around 230 votes only.
Between five and seven or eight if you want but that don't change that it's not progressive and don't change my explenations about social media impact. And even a bump of 300 is already high.
I think it does change a lot, with my arguments being the following:
1. The number of votes between Saber and Asuna is around 700 VD. Even without this 230 votes that you claimed was irregular, Saber will still have a solid win over Asuna for 400+ VD.
2. Unlike the number 600 you first claimed, 230 VF is perfectly normal if you consider other hourly raise at well (in case you haven't checked it, it's around 100+), this is EXTREMELY likely to happen if this 230 raise belonged to the most convenient timezone to ISML voters in general.
3. When Chibasa mentioned social media, it is not a claim without clues. We observe several changes from campaigning in social media and take it into consideration.

I mean, i appreciate the suggestions in general. But imo, a suggestion based on some numbers that you didn't even try to doublecheck is not really useful in any circumtances.
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Re: RESULTS: 2017 Ruby 6

Post by Chibasa » Sun Oct 22, 2017 9:44 am

Social media are very various and can have different impacts. You may think it would have an impact on long term but that's not how most social media works (except if you pay).

Social media economic system is actually based on fact you need to pay so every people following you can see what you post (targeted ads working same way). If you don't pay, only a part of your community see your post (except if they go check your own profile specifically). And the part seeing your post is mostly people connected during 2-3 hours after you posted. (It also helps people to have approximately clear timeline, posts they can see are not totally random: partly based on their interactions with posts from different people and pages in the past). So a bump like this is totally possible.

The impact on long term is way smaller but you can see it. If you check between 12 and 24, Saber is having more votes than Asuna. (1028-947 for Saber)

While Asuna were little stronger during 4 first hours. (588-556 for Asuna)

It could be caused because people voting Asuna votes earlier in general too, it's sure arguable, but if you can't be sure by looking at this graph that the campaign had a small lasting effect, it's still more plausible than arguing it didn't had any.
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Re: RESULTS: 2017 Ruby 6

Post by Brean2010 » Sun Oct 22, 2017 10:34 am

WankoMC wrote: I think it does change a lot, with my arguments being the following:
1. The number of votes between Saber and Asuna is around 700 VD. Even without this 230 votes that you claimed was irregular, Saber will still have a solid win over Asuna for 400+ VD.
2. Unlike the number 600 you first claimed, 230 VF is perfectly normal if you consider other hourly raise at well (in case you haven't checked it, it's around 100+), this is EXTREMELY likely to happen if this 230 raise belonged to the most convenient timezone to ISML voters in general.
3. When Chibasa mentioned social media, it is not a claim without clues. We observe several changes from campaigning in social media and take it into consideration.

I mean, i appreciate the suggestions in general. But imo, a suggestion based on some numbers that you didn't even try to doublecheck is not really useful in any circumtances.
Chibasa wrote:Social media are very various and can have different impacts. You may think it would have an impact on long term but that's not how most social media works (except if you pay).

Social media economic system is actually based on fact you need to pay so every people following you can see what you post (targeted ads working same way). If you don't pay, only a part of your community see your post (except if they go check your own profile specifically). And the part seeing your post is mostly people connected during 2-3 hours after you posted. (It also helps people to have approximately clear timeline, posts they can see are not totally random: partly based on their interactions with posts from different people and pages in the past). So a bump like this is totally possible.

The impact on long term is way smaller but you can see it. If you check between 12 and 24, Saber is having more votes than Asuna. (1028-947 for Saber)

While Asuna were little stronger during 4 first hours. (588-556 for Asuna)

It could be caused because people voting Asuna votes earlier in general too, it's sure arguable, but if you can't be sure by looking at this graph that the campaign had a small lasting effect, it's still more plausible than arguing it didn't had any.
I would like you know that I rechecked my messages and my informations several times, I'm just a bit too quick when I give explanations and that is why I simplify a little the reallity.

The bump stay strange If I analyse lot of previous result and I never see a bump that hit the most parts of characters after the 2-3 first hours. And here, it's the case, the bump of 5 to 8 hit several specific characters.

"The number of votes between Saber and Asuna is around 700 VD. Even without this 230 votes that you claimed was irregular, Saber will still have a solid win over Asuna for 400+ VD."
-> It's not really true because few months ago Asuna lose against Illya but after a recheck Asuna win hundreds of votes, results can be very variable in function of what manner you check them. Therefore result are never solid on Internet. And i don't claim that votes are irregular, but just that we can ask questions about the significant bump of 5 to 8 that have aproximatively the weight of the strange advance of Saber against Asuna, and perhaps the vote are irregular.

To go back about the Chibasa explanation about social media, I don't agree 2 or 3 hours are not sufficiant. I have a rather popular Twitter and I get the most part of my "Impressions" and "Engagement" in the 12 first hours and not only the third.

"When Chibasa mentioned social media, it is not a claim without clues."
-> I will say you that I already said to maglor, I think the functionnement of ISML is too opac and a bit more of transparency about where and how ISML finds there informations can reassure lot of people.

"It could be caused because people voting Asuna votes earlier in general too"
-> After the habitual bump of the start vote that is common of the most part of characters in each round, previously Asuna win a lot of votes few hours before the end of votes, we can saw its curve increasing. (But not today and it's also a bit strange). (cf: Ruby rounds 1,2,3)

"The impact on long term is way smaller but you can see it. If you check between 12 and 24, Saber is having more votes than Asuna. (1028-947 for Saber)"
-> I never say that Saber can't win against Asuna (because I have also vote for Saber to defeat Asuna becaus I think Asuna is an opportunistic character this year) but not with a so much higher result. But as you point out I think that is the true effect of the campaign but not for the bump.
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Re: RESULTS: 2017 Ruby 6

Post by kurogaga » Sun Oct 22, 2017 12:54 pm

So many upset results.... but I am glad to see the results not below 1000.

Well..... from period to another period, most of my favorite chara was lost (So long, Izayoi, Nanamin, Yoshino, Kyon, Tomoya, even Natsume too, and Tatsuya)

And, here's the list that it's time to say goodbye for favorite character in Ruby period (and sadly, no wildcard match in Necklace Showdown, so the 5th places will be as lose as 6th one):

Female:
SpoilerShow
Group 2:
- Yoshino (She was cute, Dandere personality, and have a rabbit that would be a "plus" point of cute. But, following the step as same as Tohka, she losing this match)
- Konno Yuuki (Well, she must died from SAO online in ISML because of her rivalities, and she do better next year)

Group 3:
- Sakura Chiyo (She was cute and adorable for Nozaki-kun, but so suprised that she must be "dead" in this period)
- Kuriyama Mirai (At least, she was doing better than her performance in last year)

Group 4:
- Aqua (After Darkness lost, she must following her failure in ISML this year...)
- Kasugano Sora (Although she doesn't strong enough in this match, she always punch her rivalries (not all) to keep her winner, and her struggle must be on here)

Group 5:
- Yuzuriha Inori (Mecha anime was dead in ISML this year, her "system" was shutting it down. RIP)
- Doma Umaru (In the same period of last year, she was lost again because her performance doesn't enough to advanced the next round)

Group 6:
- Ram (At least she won against Tohka, but unfortunately, following the Beatrice losing in Sapphire and Subaru in as same period as her, she must losing her match because too many rivalries on here)
- Yatogami Tohka(Again, same as Yoshino and Yuuki, she must losing her match after fighting with Ram)
Male:
SpoilerShow
Group 2:
- Kanda Sorata (After Nanamin losing, he was losing at this period too, sadly. RIP)
- Roy Mustang (Badass doesn't mean he got survive against young one. He was losing his match and even at the same period on last year)

Group 3:
- Okazaki Tomoya (Two years before, he advanced into Postseason, and then one year before, he was lost on Diamond period, and this year he got worse than before, by losing in that period)
- Shiba Tatsuya (And now, he must gone from ISML and seen Miyuki at home. More severe than before, he lost on Ruby Period too, worse than before)

Group 4:
- Sakamoto (While he was lost, at least he doing better with his "unique" personality)
- Akasaka Ryuunosuke (At least, Mashiro made it into next period, but same as Nanamin and Sorata, he unfortunately lost after he tired to his rivalries (and all of them are stronger, even Sakamoto one).

Group 5:
- Kyon (One year before this year, he had got the "key" for elimination stage. Same with Tomoya, he must eliminated by the strongest one (i.e. Edward))
- Itsuka Shido (After Yoshino and Tohka eliminated, Shido, as the protagonist, obviously eliminated too because of striking by his rivalries, Shirou. At least, Kurumi get her advance away to next period)

Group 6:
- Sakamaki Izayoi (Well, he was overpowered MC that he should be won and also advanced to Elimination Stage. But,because all of his rivalries are strong, he must plunge into failure on this period)
- Natsume Takashi (He almost had gotten Pendant on last period. Sadly, he must fell into elimination spontaneously)
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Re: RESULTS: 2017 Ruby 6

Post by houreki » Sun Oct 22, 2017 5:49 pm

maglor wrote:
shogun-Zaimokuza wrote:staff should take a look on what happened in Reddit best-character-3.
Please give us more detail about this, as I suspect most people are not aware what has happened in Reddit.
Basically this https://www.reddit.com/r/anime/comments ... nt_update/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Some users created roughly 1800 fake accounts to vote in the contest.
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Re: RESULTS: 2017 Ruby 6

Post by Brean2010 » Sun Oct 22, 2017 6:00 pm

houreki wrote:
maglor wrote:
shogun-Zaimokuza wrote:staff should take a look on what happened in Reddit best-character-3.
Please give us more detail about this, as I suspect most people are not aware what has happened in Reddit.
Basically this https://www.reddit.com/r/anime/comments ... nt_update/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Some users created roughly 1800 fake accounts to vote in the contest.
I can garantee you, It's not that simple on ISML, IP are checked, votes are checked and cleaned and I think it's very hard even impossible to use script to vote in ISML case. They are other way to cheat on ISML but not so fast and simple.

After, I'm not a member of the staff but I have verified my constatation and I'm almost sure of my informations.
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Re: RESULTS: 2017 Ruby 6

Post by maglor » Sun Oct 22, 2017 8:29 pm

houreki wrote:
maglor wrote:
shogun-Zaimokuza wrote:staff should take a look on what happened in Reddit best-character-3.
Please give us more detail about this, as I suspect most people are not aware what has happened in Reddit.
Basically this https://www.reddit.com/r/anime/comments ... nt_update/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Some users created roughly 1800 fake accounts to vote in the contest.
Thank you for sharing this. I am glad they are trying to do something about this problem.
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