The 200 Win Club

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The 200 Win Club

Post by amdrag » Mon Feb 21, 2011 5:49 pm

There are six girls who, if they qualify for the regular season, have a shot at collecting their 200th regular season win this year. They are:

Shana (169-6, would have to go 31-18 or better)
Suzumiya Haruhi (160-15, would have to go 40-9 or better)
Sakagami Tomoyo (159-16, would have to go 41-8 or better)
Nagato Yuki (155-20, would have to go 45-4 or better)
Fujibayashi Kyou (154-21, would have to go 46-3 or better)
Katsura Hinagiku (153-22, would have to go 47-2 or better)

What percent chance do you think each girl has of reaching the mark in 2011?
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Re: The 200 Win Club

Post by hinakatbklyn » Mon Feb 21, 2011 6:21 pm

Shana: If her total number of losses is any indication 95%
Haruhi: The movie might get her very close but... 70%
Tomoyo: Without new material, don't like her chances even if she makes it. 40%
Yuki: Similar to Haruhi except she has to contend with having to win more matches to make it. 60%
Kyou: Question is not if she can get 200 this year but will she even get to 200. 5%
Hinagiku: She would need a repeat performance of last year to reach 200. If the movie or a possible 3rd season were out this year, that would be a different story. 30% (Yes, even I can be objective when it comes to Hina.)
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Re: The 200 Win Club

Post by Chocola » Mon Feb 21, 2011 6:51 pm

Shana: 100%
Haruhi: 90%
Tomoyo: 15%
Yuki: 40%
Kyou: 0%
Hinagiku: 0%
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Re: The 200 Win Club

Post by Darth Blitzer » Mon Feb 21, 2011 8:56 pm

Shana 100%
Haruhi 85%
Tomoyo 65%
Yuki 50%
Kyou 0%
Hina 5%

Also, our top 5 winners don't have an ISML championship among them. Kinda funny
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Re: The 200 Win Club

Post by Toady » Mon Feb 21, 2011 9:30 pm

Shana : 99,99%
Haruhi : 70%
Tomoyo : 20%
Yuki : 30%
Kyou : 0,05%
Hinagiku : 0,8%

Those are exact values.
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Re: The 200 Win Club

Post by Yakuman » Mon Feb 21, 2011 9:52 pm

Shana: 110%
Even 10 losses seems impossible for her.
Haruhi: 66.6*%
She's still popular, and she has that movie now, so she might have a strong regular season.
Tomoyo: 6%
I really like her but the opponents seem too strong to achieve more than 40 wins.
Yuki: 0.1%
She'll surely have more than five defeats even with the movie. Or almost surely.
Kyou: 0%
No, this is simply mission impossible without Tom Cruise.
Hinagiku: 33.3*%
If someone, she can pull off a season like this but I'd say it's pretty doubtful.
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Re: The 200 Win Club

Post by bluemage » Mon Feb 21, 2011 10:19 pm

Darth Blitzer wrote:Also, our top 5 winners don't have an ISML championship among them. Kinda funny
But they sure are consistent. =)

Shana: 100%
Haruhi: 80%
Tomoyo: 60%
Yuki: 40%
Kyou: 0%
Hinagiku: 0%
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Re: The 200 Win Club

Post by Eater-of-All » Mon Feb 21, 2011 11:16 pm

Oh man, 200? Their ages sure are showing. :bigsmile:

Shana: 99.99%
Haruhi: 30%
Tomoyo: 10%
Yuki: 5%
Kyou: 0.01%
Hina: 1%
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Re: The 200 Win Club

Post by loudmouth » Mon Feb 21, 2011 11:36 pm

Shana: 100% Nuff said
Haruhi: 75% I like to be optimistic but I really don't know. It wouldn't be too difficult and she did it last year but only time will tell
Tomoyo: 30% Probably not
Yuki: 60% Hopefully the movie helped but 45-4 is a tall order
Kyou: 0% Not going to happen
Hinagiku: 10% Again, she did it last year but it won't be easy to do it again.
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Re: The 200 Win Club

Post by Wolfnagi » Tue Feb 22, 2011 3:39 am

Shana: 100.00 % (Well, she is one of the god tier in ISML after all.....)
Haruhi: 55.5 % (The movie might boost her but then again, its more towards Yuki)
Tomoyo: 30% (CLANNAD is dying year after year.....)
Yuki: 60% (Just like Haruhi but more due to the movie more bout her instead of Haruhi....)
Kyou: 5% (So long, Kyou.....)
Hinagiku: 40% (After all, the movie did say something bout releasing this year. As long as it still in regular season, she have a chance....)
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Re: The 200 Win Club

Post by Momento10 » Tue Feb 22, 2011 5:56 am

Shana will have over 200 wins by the end of this season. I cannot picture her losing to 10 girls, let alone 18 (Mio, Hinagiku, Mikoto, Ruri, Kirino, Kanade are possibilities. Do not know about winter girls such as Eucilwood, Victorique, Madoka/Haruna). Everyone else is going to need next year to have that score.
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Re: The 200 Win Club

Post by sc178 » Tue Feb 22, 2011 9:37 pm

Shana: 100%
Haruhi: 65%
Tomoyo: 20%
Yuki: 5% (Only 4 losses is a bit much to ask for)
Kyou and Hinagiku: 0% (Again, a bit too far off from 200 at this point..)
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Re: The 200 Win Club

Post by Team Rocket Elite » Wed Feb 23, 2011 12:24 am

Shana: 100%. At least a 50% chance of hitting 215 wins.
Haruhi: 75%
Hinagiku: 25%
Tomoyo: 10%
Yuki: 0%
Kyou: 0%
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Re: The 200 Win Club

Post by Cassiopeia » Wed Feb 23, 2011 5:49 am

Shana 100%
Suzumiya Haruhi 70%
Sakagami Tomoyo 0%
Nagato Yuki 0%
Fujibayashi Kyou 0%
Katsura Hinagiku 0%
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Re: The 200 Win Club

Post by akumaxx » Fri Feb 25, 2011 5:54 am

It's a problem for them to squeeze into 4th war first.
Do you remember H. Katsura in AST 2010?
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Re: The 200 Win Club

Post by amdrag » Fri Feb 25, 2011 6:46 am

Just for reference, here's how each girl would fare if they qualified for the regular season and equaled their 2010 performance:

Shana: 217-7 (48-1)
Suzumiya Haruhi: 201-23 (40-1)
Sakagami Tomoyo: 200-24 (40-8)
Nagato Yuki: 199-25 (44-5)
Fujibayashi Kyou: 193-31 (39-10)
Katsura Hinagiku: 201-23 (48-1)
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Re: The 200 Win Club

Post by Bastion » Fri Feb 25, 2011 6:57 am

amdrag wrote:Just for reference, here's how each girl would fare if they qualified for the regular season and equaled their 2010 performance:

Shana: 217-7 (48-1)
Suzumiya Haruhi: 201-23 (40-1)
Sakagami Tomoyo: 200-24 (40-8)
Nagato Yuki: 199-25 (44-5)
Fujibayashi Kyou: 193-31 (39-10)
Katsura Hinagiku: 201-23 (48-1)
O.o Is it just me, or did Haruhi have 8 fewer regular season matches than the others, and Tomoyo had one?
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Re: The 200 Win Club

Post by loudmouth » Fri Feb 25, 2011 8:01 am

Arcion wrote:
amdrag wrote:Just for reference, here's how each girl would fare if they qualified for the regular season and equaled their 2010 performance:

Shana: 217-7 (48-1)
Suzumiya Haruhi: 201-23 (40-1)
Sakagami Tomoyo: 200-24 (40-8)
Nagato Yuki: 199-25 (44-5)
Fujibayashi Kyou: 193-31 (39-10)
Katsura Hinagiku: 201-23 (48-1)
O.o Is it just me, or did Haruhi have 8 fewer regular season matches than the others, and Tomoyo had one?
Suzumiya Haruhi: 201-23 (41-8)
Sakagami Tomoyo: 200-24 (41-8)
Fixed. The rest are correct though I think.
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Re: The 200 Win Club

Post by Bastion » Fri Feb 25, 2011 8:31 am

Shana: 217-7 (48-1)
Suzumiya Haruhi: 201-23 (41-8)
Sakagami Tomoyo: 200-24 (41-8)
Nagato Yuki: 199-25 (44-5)
Fujibayashi Kyou: 193-31 (39-10)
Katsura Hinagiku: 201-23 (48-1)
Given this data, I'm going to make a guess.

Shana: Really don't see her doing badly enough not to make it: 95%
Hinagiku: Though there hasn't been anything new in the anime world, she's still popular in the ongoing manga and there's hope the movie will let her be center screen sometime: 75% (Given that she's the only HnG girl who's qualified in the first two rounds of the prelims, I'm gonna actually drop it to 65. She seems to have the popularity, but will it be enough?)
Haruhi: Going to guess that the movie will have been enough to keep her alive, but not sure if she'll retain the popularity she had: 55%
Yuki: Same as with Haruhi, don't know that it'll be enough, but there might be enough support to push her just into this league of honor: 50%
Tomoyo: I don't see her fans pushing her close enough to make it happen this year: 10%
Kyou: Same as with Tomoyo, just not enough: 5%

For the last two, next year is a maybe for them even making it into regular, the other girls are probably going to hold onto enough popularity to solidify them in the club if they've already reached it, or push them into it if not next year.
Last edited by Bastion on Sun Mar 27, 2011 6:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
Jamie AB is open for business. How would you like your hare-brained scheme?
Confusing statements are fun :p
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Kordosa wrote:I can just imagine all of the Hinagiku facepalming moments. That alone is worth it.
HnG chapter 333 pg 9 wrote:She (Hinagiku) realized an incredibly obvious but oft overlooked point: One had to read the manga before they could give their judgment of it.
ithekro wrote:Remember you aren't allowed to use your powers for evil.
With great power comes great responsibility
Absolute power corrupts absolutely
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Saber (maglor) wrote:It is not how much, but it is where the king spends that tells what kind of king he is.
Rito wrote:Men don't decide whether they like someone or not based solely on breast size.
Kordosa wrote:Boy, I really need to learn to keep my questions to myself. It only makes things worse.
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Re: The 200 Win Club

Post by MindSaber » Sat Feb 26, 2011 8:58 pm

Shana: 90%,
Suzumiya Haruhi: 50%, but the movie and upcoming novel will boost her up
Sakagami Tomoyo 30%, heck, even her chance to make it to the regular season are questionable
Nagato Yuki 60%, the disappearance movie boost her very much
Fujibayashi Kyou 15 % again, same with Tomoyo
Katsura Hinagiku 5% ;_;
Arcion wrote:
Hinagiku: Though there hasn't been anything new in the anime world, she's still popular in the ongoing manga and there's hope the movie will let her be center screen sometime: 75%
the movie is about a-tan, not about hina, even though hina is important to the story as well
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