ISML 2015 Regular Season Pot Values

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ISML 2015 Regular Season Pot Values

Post by Just » Tue Jun 09, 2015 10:25 am

The 'Pot Value' is a scoring system developed by maglor and Shmion, which indicates the expectations about a character's strength and performance. It is currently not an official statistic, but we'll be keeping track of it for the Regular Season and see how informative and accurate it is.

Reference Thread: viewtopic.php?f=30&t=4506&start=138" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I have created a Google Doc to keep track of the 'Pot Value'. Editing through link is currently disabled, but if there are any volunteers who would like to help, please PM me and I would enable you to edit the Doc. It is extremely simple, after each round, you just need to CTRL+C CTRL+V the results to the spreadsheet, then arrange the 'Pot Values' in order, and CTRL+C CTRL+V them to this thread. I will take care of the rest. So easy even a Steph could do it :>

Google Doc: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =645533287" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: ISML 2015 Regular Season Pot Values

Post by Just » Tue Jun 09, 2015 10:28 am

Pot values after Aqua 1

Nova:
SpoilerShow
1 Yukinoshita Yukino 119.111
2 Shiro 118.427
3 Tokisaki Kurumi 118.110
4 Yuigahama Yui 117.930
5 Sento Isuzu 117.842
6 Onodera Kosaki 117.091
7 Jibril 116.844
8 Sakura Chiyo 115.756
9 Kurousagi 115.695
10 Tsutsukakushi Tsukiko 115.287
11 Yoshino 114.966
12 Yatogami Tōka 113.930
13 Asada Shino 112.017
14 Kirisaki Chitoge 111.783
15 Stephanie Dola 111.064
16 Kuriyama Mirai 104.807
17 Tachibana Marika 104.247
18 Nishikino Maki 103.896
19 Latifa Fleuranza 96.104
20 Shokuhō Misaki 95.753
21 Minami Kotori 95.193
22 Konno Yūki 88.936
23 Aihara Enju 88.217
24 Akame 87.983
25 Himeragi Yukina 86.070
26 Azuki Azusa 85.034
27 Sonoda Umi 84.713
28 Terminus Est 84.305
29 Yaya 84.244
30 Shiba Miyuki 83.156
31 Yazawa Nico 82.909
32 Ayase Eli 82.158
33 Shichimiya Satone 82.070
34 Tina Sprout 81.890
35 Miyazono Kaori 81.573
36 Tobiichi Origami 80.889
Stella:
SpoilerShow
1 Aragaki Ayase 118.267
2 Shiina Mashiro 117.974
3 Eucliwood Hellscythe 116.790
4 Tōsaka Rin 116.731
5 Illyasviel von Einzbern 115.808
6 Shana 115.421
7 Itsuka Kotori 115.220
8 Saber 115.220
9 Yūki Asuna 115.188
10 Nakano Azusa 114.744
11 Aisaka Taiga 113.258
12 Makise Kurisu 113.162
13 Chitanda Eru 112.098
14 Aoyama Nanami 110.854
15 Takanashi Rikka 110.586
16 Kuroyukihime 109.375
17 Oshino Shinobu 106.057
18 Yuzuriha Inori 103.494
19 Senjōgahara Hitagi 96.506
20 Nagato Yuki 93.943
21 Nakamura Yuri 90.625
22 Yūki Mikan 89.414
23 Momo Belia Deviluke 89.146
24 Nibutani Shinka 87.902
25 Nyarlathotep 86.838
26 Konjiki no Yami 86.742
27 C.C. 85.256
28 Kashiwazaki Sena 84.812
29 Suzumiya Haruhi 84.780
30 Hasegawa Kobato 84.780
31 Charlotte Dunois 84.579
32 Hirasawa Yui 84.192
33 Holo 83.269
34 Sengoku Nadeko 83.210
35 Yui-nyan 82.026
36 Kōsaka Kirino 81.733
Male:
SpoilerShow
1 Hikigaya Hachiman 117.516
2 Sora 117.465
3 Edward Elric 117.401
4 Accelerator 114.500
5 Araragi Koyomi 112.787
6 Gilgamesh 109.859
7 Shiba Tatsuya 109.478
8 Kyon 109.141
9 Sakata Gintoki 108.388
10 Okabe Rintarō 107.204
11 Kanda Sorata 107.163
12 Sakamaki Izayoi 106.777
13 Emiya Kiritsugu 105.935
14 Togashi Yūta 103.530
15 Okazaki Tomoya 103.154
16 Nozaki Umetarō 101.828
17 Archer 101.653
18 Maō Sadao 100.710
19 Aikawa Ayumu 99.290
20 Kamijō Tōma 98.347
21 Ichijō Raku 98.172
22 Satomi Rentarō 96.846
23 Emiya Shirō 96.470
24 Yato 94.065
25 Kanie Seiya 93.223
26 L Lawliet 92.837
27 Mikoshiba Mikoto 92.796
28 Akasaka Ryūnosuke 91.612
29 Heiwajima Shizuo 90.859
30 Itsuka Shidō 90.522
31 Orihara Izaya 90.141
32 Levi 87.213
33 Katsuragi Keima 85.500
34 Kaneki Ken 82.599
35 Takasu Ryūji 82.535
36 Otonashi Yuzuru 82.484
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Re: ISML 2015 Regular Season Pot Values

Post by maglor » Tue Jun 09, 2015 12:24 pm

Just wrote:Pot values after Aqua 1

Nova:
SpoilerShow
1 Yukinoshita Yukino 119.111
2 Shiro 118.427
3 Tokisaki Kurumi 118.110
4 Yuigahama Yui 117.930
5 Sento Isuzu 117.842
6 Onodera Kosaki 117.091
7 Jibril 116.844
8 Sakura Chiyo 115.756
9 Kurousagi 115.695
10 Tsutsukakushi Tsukiko 115.287
11 Yoshino 114.966
12 Yatogami Tōka 113.930
13 Asada Shino 112.017
14 Kirisaki Chitoge 111.783
15 Stephanie Dola 111.064
16 Kuriyama Mirai 104.807
17 Tachibana Marika 104.247
18 Nishikino Maki 103.896
19 Latifa Fleuranza 96.104
20 Shokuhō Misaki 95.753
21 Minami Kotori 95.193
22 Konno Yūki 88.936
23 Aihara Enju 88.217
24 Akame 87.983
25 Himeragi Yukina 86.070
26 Azuki Azusa 85.034
27 Sonoda Umi 84.713
28 Terminus Est 84.305
29 Yaya 84.244
30 Shiba Miyuki 83.156
31 Yazawa Nico 82.909
32 Ayase Eli 82.158
33 Shichimiya Satone 82.070
34 Tina Sprout 81.890
35 Miyazono Kaori 81.573
36 Tobiichi Origami 80.889
Stella:
SpoilerShow
1 Aragaki Ayase 118.267
2 Shiina Mashiro 117.974
3 Eucliwood Hellscythe 116.790
4 Tōsaka Rin 116.731
5 Illyasviel von Einzbern 115.808
6 Shana 115.421
7 Itsuka Kotori 115.220
8 Saber 115.220
9 Yūki Asuna 115.188
10 Nakano Azusa 114.744
11 Aisaka Taiga 113.258
12 Makise Kurisu 113.162
13 Chitanda Eru 112.098
14 Aoyama Nanami 110.854
15 Takanashi Rikka 110.586
16 Kuroyukihime 109.375
17 Oshino Shinobu 106.057
18 Yuzuriha Inori 103.494
19 Senjōgahara Hitagi 96.506
20 Nagato Yuki 93.943
21 Nakamura Yuri 90.625
22 Yūki Mikan 89.414
23 Momo Belia Deviluke 89.146
24 Nibutani Shinka 87.902
25 Nyarlathotep 86.838
26 Konjiki no Yami 86.742
27 C.C. 85.256
28 Kashiwazaki Sena 84.812
29 Suzumiya Haruhi 84.780
30 Hasegawa Kobato 84.780
31 Charlotte Dunois 84.579
32 Hirasawa Yui 84.192
33 Holo 83.269
34 Sengoku Nadeko 83.210
35 Yui-nyan 82.026
36 Kōsaka Kirino 81.733
Male:
SpoilerShow
1 Hikigaya Hachiman 117.516
2 Sora 117.465
3 Edward Elric 117.401
4 Accelerator 114.500
5 Araragi Koyomi 112.787
6 Gilgamesh 109.859
7 Shiba Tatsuya 109.478
8 Kyon 109.141
9 Sakata Gintoki 108.388
10 Okabe Rintarō 107.204
11 Kanda Sorata 107.163
12 Sakamaki Izayoi 106.777
13 Emiya Kiritsugu 105.935
14 Togashi Yūta 103.530
15 Okazaki Tomoya 103.154
16 Nozaki Umetarō 101.828
17 Archer 101.653
18 Maō Sadao 100.710
19 Aikawa Ayumu 99.290
20 Kamijō Tōma 98.347
21 Ichijō Raku 98.172
22 Satomi Rentarō 96.846
23 Emiya Shirō 96.470
24 Yato 94.065
25 Kanie Seiya 93.223
26 L Lawliet 92.837
27 Mikoshiba Mikoto 92.796
28 Akasaka Ryūnosuke 91.612
29 Heiwajima Shizuo 90.859
30 Itsuka Shidō 90.522
31 Orihara Izaya 90.141
32 Levi 87.213
33 Katsuragi Keima 85.500
34 Kaneki Ken 82.599
35 Takasu Ryūji 82.535
36 Otonashi Yuzuru 82.484

Looks nice. Thanks
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Re: ISML 2015 Regular Season Pot Values

Post by Just » Thu Jun 11, 2015 9:29 am

Pot values after Aqua 2
NovaShow
1 Yukinoshita Yukino 134.784
2 Shiro 134.607
3 Tokisaki Kurumi 133.346
4 Onodera Kosaki 131.080
5 Yuigahama Yui 129.849
6 Sakura Chiyo 129.087
7 Kurousagi 126.220
8 Jibril 121.756
9 Yatogami Tōka 120.060
10 Sento Isuzu 119.162
11 Asada Shino 117.778
12 Tsutsukakushi Tsukiko 116.014
13 Nishikino Maki 115.802
14 Yoshino 113.646
15 Tachibana Marika 111.053
16 Stephanie Dola 110.336
17 Kuriyama Mirai 110.049
18 Kirisaki Chitoge 106.871
19 Shokuhō Misaki 103.410
20 Minami Kotori 96.797
21 Latifa Fleuranza 89.298
22 Shiba Miyuki 85.578
23 Akame 85.561
24 Terminus Est 82.702
25 Himeragi Yukina 78.413
26 Yaya 78.113
27 Shichimiya Satone 76.827
28 Miyazono Kaori 75.812
29 Konno Yūki 73.700
30 Aihara Enju 72.543
31 Sonoda Umi 71.383
32 Yazawa Nico 71.003
33 Tobiichi Origami 70.364
34 Tina Sprout 69.972
35 Azuki Azusa 68.854
36 Ayase Eli 68.169
StellaShow
1 Shiina Mashiro 134.552
2 Tōsaka Rin 132.262
3 Itsuka Kotori 130.283
4 Illyasviel von Einzbern 130.246
5 Saber 128.994
6 Yūki Asuna 127.922
7 Aisaka Taiga 127.553
8 Eucliwood Hellscythe 127.258
9 Shana 126.526
10 Nakano Azusa 124.343
11 Aragaki Ayase 122.944
12 Aoyama Nanami 122.342
13 Chitanda Eru 120.717
14 Makise Kurisu 120.033
15 Kuroyukihime 115.322
16 Takanashi Rikka 109.736
17 Yuzuriha Inori 104.344
18 Nakamura Yuri 98.685
19 Oshino Shinobu 91.762
20 Suzumiya Haruhi 87.562
21 Momo Belia Deviluke 86.364
22 Senjōgahara Hitagi 82.731
23 Nagato Yuki 82.455
24 Nibutani Shinka 81.955
25 Yūki Mikan 81.354
26 Konjiki no Yami 78.123
27 Kashiwazaki Sena 77.941
28 Yui-nyan 77.349
29 Hasegawa Kobato 74.312
30 Holo 73.671
31 Hirasawa Yui 73.088
32 Charlotte Dunois 71.845
33 C.C. 70.818
34 Nyarlathotep 70.261
35 Sengoku Nadeko 67.679
36 Kōsaka Kirino 66.670
MaleShow
1 Sora 137.427
2 Hikigaya Hachiman 136.303
3 Accelerator 130.924
4 Edward Elric 126.136
5 Araragi Koyomi 119.021
6 Sakata Gintoki 118.352
7 Kyon 118.170
8 Sakamaki Izayoi 117.702
9 Archer 116.243
10 Gilgamesh 115.056
11 Okabe Rintarō 114.070
12 Kamijō Tōma 111.844
13 Emiya Kiritsugu 110.090
14 Kanda Sorata 109.992
15 Kanie Seiya 106.759
16 Shiba Tatsuya 103.243
17 Katsuragi Keima 99.519
18 Maō Sadao 96.555
19 Takasu Ryūji 96.107
20 Ichijō Raku 95.344
21 Nozaki Umetarō 94.962
22 Aikawa Ayumu 94.093
23 Otonashi Yuzuru 92.395
24 Okazaki Tomoya 84.366
25 Yato 84.102
26 Mikoshiba Mikoto 83.766
27 Togashi Yūta 83.568
28 Emiya Shirō 81.880
29 Itsuka Shidō 81.787
30 Heiwajima Shizuo 80.948
31 Satomi Rentarō 80.422
32 L Lawliet 79.264
33 Akasaka Ryūnosuke 78.076
34 Orihara Izaya 76.645
35 Levi 76.288
36 Kaneki Ken 68.580
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Re: ISML 2015 Regular Season Pot Values

Post by maglor » Thu Jun 11, 2015 12:44 pm

It is interesting to see the favorites jumping out to lead so early. The question is, will they be able to maintain it?
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Re: ISML 2015 Regular Season Pot Values

Post by Just » Thu Jun 11, 2015 2:52 pm

maglor wrote:It is interesting to see the favorites jumping out to lead so early. The question is, will they be able to maintain it?
It is not unexpected, when you think closely a major determinant of 'pot values' is actually the ability to score a great VF% against weak opponents. But of course, the ability to bully the weak and the ability to hold ground against the strong are two completely different things.
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Re: ISML 2015 Regular Season Pot Values

Post by Reverend » Thu Jun 11, 2015 4:33 pm

been watching this since maglor posted it the first time at the "Some Thoughts About Ranking" thread.

will mention things you guys from math department probably already know (but I'll post it anyway) :
early season, the pot of each contestants are still big, so current hypothesis (the one Just posted) is still true.
but as we will get to late season, the pot value of weaker contestants will get thinner and thinner, and so top dogs get less for every match against them, while snipers will get more for every successful kill.
which is why Jibril's and Inori's early sniping have not managed to get them that far.
(in Inori's case, she even failed to surpass her target)

few things I'm interested, though:
1. Kurisu x Okabe OTP has managed to bring Kurisu far, she's doing pretty well currently, and possibly this year could be her best.
One thing I'm interested here is: Kurisu's pot value is higher than Okabe, but Okabe's rank is higher than Kurisu.
Since both probably sits on the same tier/one side is lower by one tier than the other, it suggests that Stella has a much-tighter competition than Male
(especially since the reason Okabe has lesser pot value probably is because he has to face 2 GSNK representatives consecutively, while Kurisu got to feed from Nyarlathotep 1st round)
It also suggest that Kurisu has not performed well enough, and the first hypothesis (about this year being her best) could also be turned down.
of course, this is still early in the season...

2. How costly is Yuzuru's unlucky first match of the year? No one is expecting big from him when the enemy is Hachiman, but still...
back to point 1, Yuzuru's opponent this round is Okabe, which is a big chance for him to get back to the top spot (since Shizuo was not much of a food for him)
if, hypothetically, Okabe manages to hold the vote difference by 15% (inaccurate estimation, of course) then he will stay up this season, most likely, since he would still have at least one lower tier opponent.
If, Yuzuru wins more than that, it's a different story, though.

3. The whole hope of Love Live has been rested upon Nishikino Maki, it seems, as Love Live! turns into a one-woman team.
Funny how you guys staffs fate has arranged it: that Maki meets 2 LL representatives in 3 matches.
Maki's seed score is still good, and she gets to feed from Eli this round (most likely)
Once the feeding process is finished, Love Live! could just concentrate in sniping as much people as possible in hope of getting more SDO for Maki.
What a good scenario, that is.
If that scenario does occur, what I think I'd probably see here in this table is: Maki consistently keeps 10-16 spot, while the other LL representatives slowly catch up.

I forgot what I want to write again...
I'll write some more once I finish SO
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Re: ISML 2015 Regular Season Pot Values

Post by Just » Thu Jun 11, 2015 6:22 pm

Reverend wrote:
tl;rShow
been watching this since maglor posted it the first time at the "Some Thoughts About Ranking" thread.

will mention things you guys from math department probably already know (but I'll post it anyway) :
early season, the pot of each contestants are still big, so current hypothesis (the one Just posted) is still true.
but as we will get to late season, the pot value of weaker contestants will get thinner and thinner, and so top dogs get less for every match against them, while snipers will get more for every successful kill.
which is why Jibril's and Inori's early sniping have not managed to get them that far.
(in Inori's case, she even failed to surpass her target)

few things I'm interested, though:
1. Kurisu x Okabe OTP has managed to bring Kurisu far, she's doing pretty well currently, and possibly this year could be her best.
One thing I'm interested here is: Kurisu's pot value is higher than Okabe, but Okabe's rank is higher than Kurisu.
Since both probably sits on the same tier/one side is lower by one tier than the other, it suggests that Stella has a much-tighter competition than Male
(especially since the reason Okabe has lesser pot value probably is because he has to face 2 GSNK representatives consecutively, while Kurisu got to feed from Nyarlathotep 1st round)
It also suggest that Kurisu has not performed well enough, and the first hypothesis (about this year being her best) could also be turned down.
of course, this is still early in the season...

2. How costly is Yuzuru's unlucky first match of the year? No one is expecting big from him when the enemy is Hachiman, but still...
back to point 1, Yuzuru's opponent this round is Okabe, which is a big chance for him to get back to the top spot (since Shizuo was not much of a food for him)
if, hypothetically, Okabe manages to hold the vote difference by 15% (inaccurate estimation, of course) then he will stay up this season, most likely, since he would still have at least one lower tier opponent.
If, Yuzuru wins more than that, it's a different story, though.

3. The whole hope of Love Live has been rested upon Nishikino Maki, it seems, as Love Live! turns into a one-woman team.
Funny how you guys staffs fate has arranged it: that Maki meets 2 LL representatives in 3 matches.
Maki's seed score is still good, and she gets to feed from Eli this round (most likely)
Once the feeding process is finished, Love Live! could just concentrate in sniping as much people as possible in hope of getting more SDO for Maki.
What a good scenario, that is.
If that scenario does occur, what I think I'd probably see here in this table is: Maki consistently keeps 10-16 spot, while the other LL representatives slowly catch up.

I forgot what I want to write again...
I'll write some more once I finish SO
I'm not maglor, and hence I don't have as complete an understanding of the system as he does, but I'll try to think about what you've said and share my thoughts 0 0
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Given the multiplicative characteristic of the 'Pot Value', differences between characters shall be considered in the log scale. You are correct in the sense that the values tend to get more and more extreme towards late season, but when you convert them to the log value they become much more comparable to the additive scale that most scores adopt. And the concept you pointed out is exactly what was intended in this system, strong characters have more to put on the line in matches they are supposed to win, while weak characters have little to lose in matches where they are supposed to lose.

As for the sniping part, it is true that Jibril and Inori did not really gain much in terms of absolute value (Jibril's win is not actually a snipe BTW, she was ranked above Chitoge in terms of strength to begin with), but when you consider that this small gain would be accumulated by a multiplicative factor over the next 33 rounds, it would eventually turn out to be greater than you think. There are, of course, still differences between the so-called 'value' of different rounds (e.g. a win by the exactly same vote count may ultimately earn you more in, say, Amethyst 4 than Emerald 6), but we decided to still try out this method because:
a. the perceived differences between rounds are not great enough to cause significant unfairness
b. the randomness of schedule is supposed to balance off the supposed advantage any particular character may receive
c. this is a trial statistic and does not really affect anything *hides*

Further on the gain and loss for each character after a match. We do penalize and reward characters for performing out of expectations (in both good or bad way), but we don't want the effect of one particular match to be too dramatic such that it offsets all previous performances. For example, when a character upsets another who is slightly stronger than her, we would want to take into account of previous results when determining who is stronger instead of relying on only one match. Thus winning a stronger character does not necessarily guarantee overtaking her in 'Pot Value'.

One more thing, as the 'Pot Values' become more and more extreme towards the later part of the Regular Season, it is true that the absolute value of 'Pot' that higher ranked characters putting at stake would be great. However, we can reasonably assume that characters strengths do not change dramatically over one night, and would not suddenly rocket from the very bottom to the front of the pack. It is, therefore, highly unlikely for a character with 'Pot' 20 to actually beat a character with 'Pot' 2000; and the upsets that do occur are much more likely to lie between characters of 'Pot' difference of, say, 500 and 800, or 15 and 35. So we do not expect a dramatic change in 'Pot' rankings over one particular match. If upsets do occur, the characters in question are not likely to be ranked far apart to begin with.

On the part that you're interested with:
1. The reason why Rintaro (tier 4) is currently ranked higher than Kurisu (tier 3) is because of PSAO, which is influenced by scheduling. Rintaro beat Mikoto (tier 6) and Umetaro (tier 4) respectively, and Umetaro had previously won a match against Raku (tier 6), which gives Rintaro an extra PSAO of slightly more than 2. Kurisu, on the other hand, beat Nyaruko (tier 7) and Sena (tier 6), who both lost the other match (quite reasonably, as they were both facing tier 1 in that other match). It is thus reasonable for Kurisu, who ends up with a lower PSAO after 2 matches, to be ranked lower than Rintaro. Simply by looking at the statsheet, it is difficult to compare the competitiveness of the two Divisions or the strength of the two characters, as one got bigger wins against weaker opponents while the other got narrow wins over stronger ones.

2. (Completely subjective personal opinion) Yuzuru lost by more than expected to Hachiman, while his win over Shizuo was around right. I am predicting a VF% difference of around 5% between Yuzuru and Rintaro ^^

3. We have 5 LL characters, and thus 10 intra-series match over the season. Distribute that into 35 rounds, it is not out-of-the-worldly rare for 2 matches to occur in 3 rounds. Maki is good for 10-16 (at least for now), but other LL characters are currently in the bottom half in terms of strength estimate, and have a lot of ground to make up 0 0
I'm sure maglor will have more to say, and perhaps can also fix a few of my misconceptions too ^^
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Re: ISML 2015 Regular Season Pot Values

Post by Reverend » Thu Jun 11, 2015 8:21 pm

in reply of just
SpoilerShow
yes, I know this is just a trial, I am interested in this because I think the perception used here (perhaps) can be applied to other matters that involve expectations and votes (such as elections)

hmm
wait, don't this system is a "one-take-and-go" type? I mean: what happened today can't affect tomorrow any further than it has already (unlike the SDO system, where a defeat is carried over for the rest of the season)
once you take her points, you can't take more since you won't face her again.
or do I miss something?

1) I believe there are statistical numbers that can better represent my take on that matter. (I skipped all of my statistic class so I don't know the proper term and how to count it, gomen)
I understand that Okabe has more PSAO (which I pointed out in my prev post, in the part where I said Okabe had to face 2 GSNK early)
And: since this number supposedly shows number of (answered) expectation value, Kurisu has a bigger pot value than Okabe is nothing strange, because more are expected out of her thanks to her opponent being weaker than Okabe's.
What made me said that Stella is tighter is the ranking of this table, which based on which character has more pot value, translated to a more direct language (if I did not capture this wrongly) : which character answered the expectation given to them more.
In this case, Kurisu answered the expectation given to her, but her competitors answered theirs better (whether by winning by more margin or by winning against stronger opponent)
which directs to this sentence I made:
"It also suggest that Kurisu has not performed well enough, and the first hypothesis (about this year being her best) could also be turned down."
2) no idea on Yuzuru, it was a one-sight estimation
I would guess somewhere between 54-46 to Yuzuru, though I think he should have been winning more from Shizuo.

3) 10 intra-series matches means it can happen anytime, but the first two involves Maki, whose that "one woman" in that one-woman team? won't that be a coincidence?
yes, they have not been starting out well, that scenario was just my imagination (if I was LL's voting strategist)
still, it's interesting to follow, how would LL acts since their MV cannot be relied upon...
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Re: ISML 2015 Regular Season Pot Values

Post by Just » Fri Jun 12, 2015 4:49 am

Reply to Revvie-chan
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You are correct in the sense that you can't take more from the same opponent because you won't face her any more, but the effect of you winning her lingers on for the rest of the calculations due to the multiplicative effect. For example, character A won b 'Pot values' from another character, then her 'Pot' becomes 100+b. In the next match, the pot value that she is putting at stake becomes 0.2*(100+b), which means the opponent would be able to take more from you if you lose. The focus of this system, in contrast to SDO, is the emphasis on what happened to your opponent BEFORE the match, instead of punishing you because your opponent gets weaker after your match - as you know, for SDO, if someone you beat suffers in subsequent matches, your SDO suffers too.

Another thing about the 'Pot' is that it takes the margin of victory into account - the more you win, the more you gain. Again in contrast to SDO, where you get the same whether you win by 1000 votes or by 1 vote. Therefore, if you are unlucky enough to have faced a strong opponent right off the bat, you can avoid suffering too much by narrowing the margin of defeat, and gain more from your subsequent weaker opponents.

For point 1: I'm sorry I misunderstood a bit in my previous response. Concerning the ranking of the 'Pot value', I would say it is rather due to the effect of scheduling. In Stella, tiers 1-3 were all facing weaker opponents in the first two rounds, and those from tiers 1-2 were able to get a larger victory than Kurisu and thus the higher pot value. In Male, on the other hand, tier 2 was unlucky to have faced tier 1 in the very first match, and had only 1 match where they were able to gain some 'Pots', so tier 2 are currently ranking lower than tiers 3-4 (including Rintaro) in general. As the schedule goes on, say around Aqua 5, I'm sure the tiers 2 would rise in the rankings to overtake tiers 3-4 as they get more opportunities to win 'Pots', and when tiers 3-4 also meet tier 1 and suffer some losses.
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Re: ISML 2015 Regular Season Pot Values

Post by Reverend » Fri Jun 12, 2015 7:13 am

I got a bit of confirmation about how you did scheduling :cooltongue:
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I see...
if you put it that way, it certainly does have longer-lasting effect.

1) hmm I guess all we can do is wait, while hoping Okabe does not exceed the expectation burdened to him by much
(because if he does, there's nobody to stand as the comparator)
natural result would be Okabe having lower rank than Kurisu, yes? Since Kurisu has higher tier...
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Re: ISML 2015 Regular Season Pot Values

Post by Just » Fri Jun 12, 2015 7:45 am

Reverend wrote:I got a bit of confirmation about how you did scheduling :cooltongue:
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I see...
if you put it that way, it certainly does have longer-lasting effect.

1) hmm I guess all we can do is wait, while hoping Okabe does not exceed the expectation burdened to him by much
(because if he does, there's nobody to stand as the comparator)
natural result would be Okabe having lower rank than Kurisu, yes? Since Kurisu has higher tier...
Tiers do not mean anything you know :P Look at Akemi Homura in 2012 and Aragaki Ayase in 2013 *runs*
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Re: ISML 2015 Regular Season Pot Values

Post by Reverend » Fri Jun 12, 2015 8:04 am

Just wrote:
Reverend wrote:I got a bit of confirmation about how you did scheduling :cooltongue:
SpoilerShow
I see...
if you put it that way, it certainly does have longer-lasting effect.

1) hmm I guess all we can do is wait, while hoping Okabe does not exceed the expectation burdened to him by much
(because if he does, there's nobody to stand as the comparator)
natural result would be Okabe having lower rank than Kurisu, yes? Since Kurisu has higher tier...
Tiers do not mean anything you know :P Look at Akemi Homura in 2012 and Aragaki Ayase in 2013 *runs*
I considered that as unnatural results (mathematically,) inaccuracy thanks to performance in prelims and/or anime material

btw, I wonder if this can be modified so that it can be applied to spring seasonal this year
so that we can see how much does the diadems affect the result of next year
since, you know, we have this little superstition about diadem winners and finalists not going to perform as well in their RS career.

of course, a new N would be needed (since every season has different N) so that's a lot of job...
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Re: ISML 2015 Regular Season Pot Values

Post by Just » Fri Jun 12, 2015 5:45 pm

Reverend wrote:
Just wrote:
Reverend wrote:I got a bit of confirmation about how you did scheduling :cooltongue:
SpoilerShow
I see...
if you put it that way, it certainly does have longer-lasting effect.

1) hmm I guess all we can do is wait, while hoping Okabe does not exceed the expectation burdened to him by much
(because if he does, there's nobody to stand as the comparator)
natural result would be Okabe having lower rank than Kurisu, yes? Since Kurisu has higher tier...
Tiers do not mean anything you know :P Look at Akemi Homura in 2012 and Aragaki Ayase in 2013 *runs*
I considered that as unnatural results (mathematically,) inaccuracy thanks to performance in prelims and/or anime material

btw, I wonder if this can be modified so that it can be applied to spring seasonal this year
so that we can see how much does the diadems affect the result of next year
since, you know, we have this little superstition about diadem winners and finalists not going to perform as well in their RS career.

of course, a new N would be needed (since every season has different N) so that's a lot of job...
I'm not sure whether it can be modified to use in spring seasonal, after all the systems are quite different (single elimination vs round robin).
As for the superstition, perhaps we can have a look at past diadem/seasonal winners, and notable characters from that season.
2012Show
Winter: Shirakiin Ririchiyo
Spring: Kuroyukihime (Chitanda Eru)
Summer: Yuki Asuna
Autumn: Takanashi Rikka (Shiina Mashiro, Aoyama Nanami)

Diadem Finalists: Asuna, Rikka
Diadem Winner: Asuna
2013Show
Winter: Kurousagi (Nishikino Maki)
Spring: Tokisaki Kurumi (Itsuka Kotori, Yoshino, Tsutsukakushi Tsukiko, Yukinoshita Yukino, Yuigahama Yui, Yatogami Toka)
Summer: Kirigiri Kyoko
Autumn: Kuriyama Mirai

Diadem Finalists: Kurumi, Mirai
Diadem Winner: Kurumi
2014Show
Winter: Kirisaki Chitoge (Onodera Kosaki)
Spring: Shiro (Jibril, Stephanie Dola)
Summer: Sakura Chiyo (Asada Shino)
Autumn: Sento Isuzu

Diadem Finalists: Shiro, Chiyo
Diadem Winner: Chiyo
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Re: ISML 2015 Regular Season Pot Values

Post by Reverend » Fri Jun 12, 2015 6:15 pm

ehem Just-kun, I said "diadem"
and I meant the seasonal one (the one Ririchiyo won in Winter 2012 etc etc etc)
of course, winner of matches between diadem holders is a guaranteed top dog, since if she does not, it would mean the otaku culture really is dying.

well, whatever, the fact that one seasonal winner can easily outdone other seasonal winner is the reason why I said that each season would have a different N% of pot value bet (assuming the system can be applied, of course)
but I agree with you that different type of competition would require another equation method (though it can have the same concept.)
that's one hell of a job and I won't take it so I won't ask anybody to
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Re: ISML 2015 Regular Season Pot Values

Post by maglor » Fri Jun 12, 2015 6:38 pm

Reverend wrote:ehem Just-kun, I said "diadem"
and I meant the seasonal one (the one Ririchiyo won in Winter 2012 etc etc etc)
of course, winner of matches between diadem holders is a guaranteed top dog, since if she does not, it would mean the otaku culture really is dying.

well, whatever, the fact that one seasonal winner can easily outdone other seasonal winner is the reason why I said that each season would have a different N% of pot value bet (assuming the system can be applied, of course)
but I agree with you that different type of competition would require another equation method (though it can have the same concept.)
that's one hell of a job and I won't take it so I won't ask anybody to
*read the lips mode: on*
In the single elimination situation, this pot value don't have much a value. If we want some pot value to carry over from the seasonal to the next year's regular season, we need to figure out how best to handle prelim, and that is a much tougher situation.I will think about prelim pot formula, but right now, I doubt a simple formula can exist for it.
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Re: ISML 2015 Regular Season Pot Values

Post by Just » Sat Jun 13, 2015 12:45 am

Reverend wrote:ehem Just-kun, I said "diadem"
and I meant the seasonal one (the one Ririchiyo won in Winter 2012 etc etc etc)
Oops, my bad, I was thinking about the Divine Circlet LOL
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Re: ISML 2015 Regular Season Pot Values

Post by smartboyhw » Sat Jun 13, 2015 12:46 am

Just wrote:
Reverend wrote:ehem Just-kun, I said "diadem"
and I meant the seasonal one (the one Ririchiyo won in Winter 2012 etc etc etc)
Oops, my bad, I was thinking about the Divine Circlet LOL
You were thinking about the yearly champion instead...
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Re: ISML 2015 Regular Season Pot Values

Post by Just » Sat Jun 13, 2015 4:03 am

Pot Values after Aqua 3
NovaShow
1 Shiro 155.392
2 Yukinoshita Yukino 153.866
3 Onodera Kosaki 150.295
4 Tokisaki Kurumi 147.733
5 Sakura Chiyo 143.835
6 Yuigahama Yui 139.585
7 Jibril 134.097
8 Sento Isuzu 131.990
9 Kurousagi 130.597
10 Yoshino 128.308
11 Yatogami Tōka 127.259
12 Nishikino Maki 127.163
13 Tsutsukakushi Tsukiko 127.112
14 Asada Shino 123.265
15 Kirisaki Chitoge 120.384
16 Stephanie Dola 117.354
17 Tachibana Marika 91.839
18 Kuriyama Mirai 89.264
19 Shokuhō Misaki 84.328
20 Minami Kotori 82.048
21 Yaya 80.601
22 Akame 78.543
23 Miyazono Kaori 75.852
24 Latifa Fleuranza 75.785
25 Shiba Miyuki 71.191
26 Yazawa Nico 70.963
27 Aihara Enju 68.167
28 Terminus Est 68.040
29 Tina Sprout 67.484
30 Shichimiya Satone 65.730
31 Himeragi Yukina 65.584
32 Sonoda Umi 64.185
33 Konno Yūki 63.964
34 Azuki Azusa 63.367
35 Tobiichi Origami 58.023
36 Ayase Eli 56.808
StellaShow
1 Tōsaka Rin 149.303
2 Shiina Mashiro 143.506
3 Yūki Asuna 141.629
4 Itsuka Kotori 136.815
5 Eucliwood Hellscythe 136.452
6 Illyasviel von Einzbern 135.919
7 Shana 132.889
8 Chitanda Eru 131.091
9 Aragaki Ayase 129.473
10 Makise Kurisu 122.173
11 Aisaka Taiga 121.021
12 Nakano Azusa 120.686
13 Saber 120.040
14 Yuzuriha Inori 113.533
15 Aoyama Nanami 105.302
16 Takanashi Rikka 104.063
17 Nakamura Yuri 102.342
18 Kuroyukihime 101.614
19 Oshino Shinobu 96.325
20 Nibutani Shinka 93.121
21 Senjōgahara Hitagi 88.434
22 Momo Belia Deviluke 84.225
23 Yui-nyan 83.960
24 Hasegawa Kobato 79.458
25 Nagato Yuki 78.941
26 Suzumiya Haruhi 78.368
27 Charlotte Dunois 75.359
28 Yūki Mikan 74.991
29 Konjiki no Yami 71.594
30 Holo 68.525
31 Kashiwazaki Sena 67.566
32 Hirasawa Yui 66.476
33 C.C. 66.255
34 Sengoku Nadeko 61.975
35 Nyarlathotep 61.071
36 Kōsaka Kirino 55.504
MaleShow
1 Sora 154.674
2 Hikigaya Hachiman 151.185
3 Accelerator 145.317
4 Edward Elric 130.781
5 Archer 129.593
6 Sakamaki Izayoi 128.794
7 Araragi Koyomi 126.545
8 Kamijō Tōma 120.322
9 Sakata Gintoki 120.135
10 Kyon 117.074
11 Kanie Seiya 116.186
12 Emiya Kiritsugu 113.223
13 Gilgamesh 113.108
14 Katsuragi Keima 109.616
15 Kanda Sorata 109.093
16 Okabe Rintarō 104.503
17 Otonashi Yuzuru 101.963
18 Shiba Tatsuya 94.765
19 Takasu Ryūji 92.974
20 Maō Sadao 86.457
21 Okazaki Tomoya 86.314
22 Heiwajima Shizuo 85.719
23 Nozaki Umetarō 85.535
24 Togashi Yūta 84.467
25 Orihara Izaya 83.139
26 Emiya Shirō 82.977
27 Ichijō Raku 81.993
28 Satomi Rentarō 78.639
29 Aikawa Ayumu 76.847
30 Yato 73.010
31 L Lawliet 72.770
32 Levi 71.643
33 Akasaka Ryūnosuke 70.553
34 Mikoshiba Mikoto 69.373
35 Itsuka Shidō 66.905
36 Kaneki Ken 63.810
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Re: ISML 2015 Regular Season Pot Values

Post by maglor » Sat Jun 13, 2015 4:30 am

Please note that some characters in the male division lost pot value even though they won the match. This is what's suppose to happen when a heavily favored contestant barely eeks out a win over an underdog.
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