2010 Questions (formerly Oddsmaker/Percent Chance)

For topics that last throughout the whole season
amdrag
Cherry blossom
Cherry blossom
Posts: 942
Joined: Thu Jul 09, 2009 9:01 am
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: a lack of zetsuboushita.

2010 Questions (formerly Oddsmaker/Percent Chance)

Post by amdrag » Mon Feb 08, 2010 3:23 am

Those of you who watch Pardon The Interruption should know how this goes down. Those that don't... well, it's pretty easy. I'll list out a prediction, and you'll guess the percent that it will happen.

What is the percent chance that an ISML rookie will have a better winning percentage than last year's rookie of the year, Taiga Aisaka?

(Taiga's 52-11 record was an .825 winning percentage. It would take 41 wins or 40 wins and 1 tie to beat that mark.)
Last edited by amdrag on Tue Mar 02, 2010 11:42 am, edited 2 times in total.
Image
Stocking's gonna need to see your f*****' hands at the concert.
User avatar
Team Rocket Elite
Moon princess
Moon princess
Posts: 3211
Joined: Wed Feb 18, 2009 2:43 am
Badges:
Image
Worships: Bernkastel
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: dried plums to go with the tea.

Re: Oddsmaker/Percent Chance

Post by Team Rocket Elite » Mon Feb 08, 2010 5:35 am

amdrag wrote:What is the percent chance that an ISML rookie will have a better winning percentage than last year's rookie of the year, Taiga Aisaka?
Ties are very unlikely so that means at most 8 losses. It'll be a lot harder to do since there are only 49 matches and the weakest 14 or so were the ones cut off. Mio has looked really good so far so I'll go with 55%.

Mio probably doesn't stand a chance against these 4:
Katsura Hinagiku
Sakagami Tomoyo
Shana
Suzumiya Haruhi

Mio can lose to up to 4 of:
Aisaka Taiga
Fate Testarossa
Fujibayashi Kyou
Furukawa Nagisa
Hiiragi Kagami
Holo
Ichinose Kotomi
Maria
Nagato Yuki
Saber
Sanzen'in Nagi
Tohsaka Rin

Mio also needs to watch out for surprise upsets from characters outside these 16. If Mio goes on to lose to Kotomi in the preliminaries, I'll drop her chances to about 20%. She'll need help from the new season of K-On.

As for newcomers who are not Mio... good luck. Maybe we'll get a surprise Seitokai no Ichizon season 2. Railgun is pretty much out of material and considering the filler second half, they don't seem to be interested in animating what they have left for now.

If the Rozen Maiden crew get their act together at some point, projections get even worse. With some luck, Shinku will miss the cut to the Round Robin tournament. Suigintou and Suiseseki will probably make it, though.
A miracle that you believe in when you know it won't happen......... is hope.
amdrag
Cherry blossom
Cherry blossom
Posts: 942
Joined: Thu Jul 09, 2009 9:01 am
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: a lack of zetsuboushita.

Re: Oddsmaker/Percent Chance

Post by amdrag » Mon Feb 08, 2010 5:53 am

I'm going 27%. I don't see either Mio or Yui beating 'Giku, Tomoyo, Kyou, Shana, Yuki or Suzi-Franchise. That means two losses at most to the rest of the competitors. If I were them, I would be worried about Taiga, Fate, Kagami, Suigintou, Desu and Rin.
Image
Stocking's gonna need to see your f*****' hands at the concert.
User avatar
ithekro
Strike witch
Strike witch
Posts: 1229
Joined: Thu Feb 19, 2009 6:44 pm
Badges:
Image
Melon Pan: 50

Re: Oddsmaker/Percent Chance

Post by ithekro » Mon Feb 08, 2010 6:25 am

Depends just how much backing they get. Tomoyo surprised us all the first year by topping the chart most of the year in first place and being one of the few that can actually beat Shana. Mio, Yui, and maybe Azusa may surprise us. Mikasa Mikoto may also have something up her sleeve this time around, seeing what kind of numbers she's getting. All it takes is one moe overload episode to tip the scale. The Seitokai group may or may not be up to the challenge. They've managed to do fairly well so far, but not in the overwhelming numbers range that Mikasa and Mio have managed to pull.

At least this time I expect more than one newbie to be able to run with the big girls rather than just the lone Taiga last year. The Touhou self destruct was highly dissapointing when even Reimu couldn't hold 50%.
Image
Space Opera
User avatar
Hachiko
Heavenly Tiara
Heavenly Tiara
Posts: 16372
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 11:27 pm
Worships: Kaname Madoka
Melon Pan: 50
2020 Female Favorite: Aisaka Taiga
2020 Male Favorite: Agatsuma Zen'itsu
2019 Female Favorite: Kaname Madoka
2019 Male Favorite: Azusagawa Sakuta
2018 Female Favorite: Chtholly Nota Seniorious
2018 Male Favorite: Hikigaya Hachiman
Wish: An awesome 2020 ISML.
Location: Long Beach, California
Contact:

Re: Oddsmaker/Percent Chance

Post by Hachiko » Thu Feb 11, 2010 12:04 pm

Speaking of odds, I have a post on some early odds right...here.
amdrag
Cherry blossom
Cherry blossom
Posts: 942
Joined: Thu Jul 09, 2009 9:01 am
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: a lack of zetsuboushita.

Re: Oddsmaker/Percent Chance

Post by amdrag » Fri Feb 12, 2010 4:09 am

Alright, let's go to a new topic.

With all due respect to the other 13 groups, one of the most anticipated matches of the final round was Group 9's deciding clash between Nanoha Takamachi (see, I got it right eventually), Konata Izumi and C.C. All three looked very impressive in their first three matches, but only one can claim a spot in the regular season... at least, in this phase.

What is the percent chance that Konata, C.C. and Nanoha ALL make the regular season this year?
Last edited by amdrag on Fri Feb 12, 2010 7:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
Image
Stocking's gonna need to see your f*****' hands at the concert.
User avatar
Alexander
Translator
Translator
Posts: 2285
Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2009 6:17 pm
Badges:
Image
Melon Pan: 92
Wish: It's a secret
Location: Sea of Memories

Re: Oddsmaker/Percent Chance

Post by Alexander » Fri Feb 12, 2010 4:37 am

amdrag wrote:Alright, let's go to a new topic.

With all due respect to the other 13 groups, one of the most anticipated matches of the final round was Group 9's deciding clash between Nagisa Furukawa, Konata Izumi and C.C. All three looked very impressive in their first three matches, but only one can claim a spot in the regular season... at least, in this phase.

What is the percent chance that Konata, C.C. and Nagisa ALL make the regular season this year?
What does nagisa have to do with group 9?
ImageImage
User avatar
Team Rocket Elite
Moon princess
Moon princess
Posts: 3211
Joined: Wed Feb 18, 2009 2:43 am
Badges:
Image
Worships: Bernkastel
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: dried plums to go with the tea.

Re: Oddsmaker/Percent Chance

Post by Team Rocket Elite » Fri Feb 12, 2010 4:45 am

amdrag wrote:Alright, let's go to a new topic.

With all due respect to the other 13 groups, one of the most anticipated matches of the final round was Group 9's deciding clash between Nagisa Furukawa, Konata Izumi and C.C. All three looked very impressive in their first three matches, but only one can claim a spot in the regular season... at least, in this phase. What is the percent chance that Konata, C.C. and Nagisa ALL make the regular season this year?
99.9%. Maybe a bit more than that. Even if you meant Nanoha instead of Nagisa, my stance doesn't change. If you intentionally tried to rig the Phase 2 and Phase 3 match ups, it might be possible to prevent one of those three from advancing.

To rig it so one of them doesn't advance, it doesn't really matter who advances out of Group 9. Let's say Nanoha does but this still works if Nanoha replaces C.C or Konata. Put Nagisa and Konata in the same Phase II group on opposite sides of the bracket so Konata loses to Nagisa in the finals of Phase 2. Do the same thing with C.C. and Maria. With some luck, C.C. loses to Maria. Put C.C. and Konata in the same Phase III Round 2 group. Only one of them can advance.
A miracle that you believe in when you know it won't happen......... is hope.
amdrag
Cherry blossom
Cherry blossom
Posts: 942
Joined: Thu Jul 09, 2009 9:01 am
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: a lack of zetsuboushita.

Re: Oddsmaker/Percent Chance

Post by amdrag » Fri Feb 12, 2010 7:29 am

Alexander wrote:
amdrag wrote:Alright, let's go to a new topic.

With all due respect to the other 13 groups, one of the most anticipated matches of the final round was Group 9's deciding clash between Nagisa Furukawa, Konata Izumi and C.C. All three looked very impressive in their first three matches, but only one can claim a spot in the regular season... at least, in this phase.

What is the percent chance that Konata, C.C. and Nagisa ALL make the regular season this year?
What does nagisa have to do with group 9?
It's... well she... umm... Hey, look at that distraction! (points one way, runs the other)
Image
Stocking's gonna need to see your f*****' hands at the concert.
User avatar
ithekro
Strike witch
Strike witch
Posts: 1229
Joined: Thu Feb 19, 2009 6:44 pm
Badges:
Image
Melon Pan: 50

Re: Oddsmaker/Percent Chance

Post by ithekro » Fri Feb 12, 2010 11:33 am

Image
So. Many. Uses.
Image
Space Opera
User avatar
ithekro
Strike witch
Strike witch
Posts: 1229
Joined: Thu Feb 19, 2009 6:44 pm
Badges:
Image
Melon Pan: 50

Re: Oddsmaker/Percent Chance

Post by ithekro » Sun Feb 14, 2010 9:23 am

Based on Vote Differental only we should have the following 19 girls enter ISML: (VD of -2,939 or better including Sakura and Louise)
Ichinose Kotomi
Senjōgahara Hitagi
Maria
Hiiragi Tsukasa
Ryūgū Rena
Furukawa Nagisa
Kushieda Minori
Ibuki Fūko
Hirasawa Ui
Nishizawa Ayumu
Nymph
C.C.
Takamachi Nanoha
Saginomiya Isumi
Suiseiseki
Akaba Chizuru
Shinku
Minase Nayuki
Illyasviel von Einzbern
and the 20th slot would be a duel between these two (one point difference):
Kinomoto Sakura
Louise Vallière

However if one looks at "Votes For" the number change only slightly: (5,686 votes for or more)
(With no need for a duel for 20th place)
Ichinose Kotomi
Senjōgahara Hitagi
Maria
Hiiragi Tsukasa
Furukawa Nagisa
Kushieda Minori
Ibuki Fūko
Nishizawa Ayumu
C.C.
Takamachi Nanoha
Saginomiya Isumi
Akaba Chizuru
Shinku
Illyasviel von Einzbern
Hirasawa Ui
Suiseiseki
Louise Vallière
Kinomoto Sakura
Ryūgū Rena
Furude Hanyū

What does this mean? Got me. Just something I was looking at.
Image
Space Opera
User avatar
Chocola
Hikarin's Kitty
Hikarin's Kitty
Posts: 7459
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2009 3:31 am
Worships: Kousaka Reina
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: Hikachu to not hate me

Re: Oddsmaker/Percent Chance

Post by Chocola » Sun Feb 14, 2010 10:08 am

I don't want Sakura in regular season.
ImageImageImage
ImageImageImage
MAL Ratings ISML Chat, Saimoe Blog, Saimoe Wiki
A tall, towering wall looms in front of me. Beyond that is something that I could never to see on my own.
And that is...the view from the top.
User avatar
aly_angelflight
Sacred jewel
Sacred jewel
Posts: 353
Joined: Wed Jun 17, 2009 5:08 pm
Worships: Miyanaga Saki
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: A job to just land on my lap

Re: Oddsmaker/Percent Chance

Post by aly_angelflight » Sun Feb 14, 2010 5:32 pm

KS, really? O_O
SpoilerShow
(Is the world about to end?)
Image
User avatar
Chocola
Hikarin's Kitty
Hikarin's Kitty
Posts: 7459
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2009 3:31 am
Worships: Kousaka Reina
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: Hikachu to not hate me

Re: Oddsmaker/Percent Chance

Post by Chocola » Sun Feb 14, 2010 6:07 pm

Well, she's just going to get raped, so what's the point? :(
ImageImageImage
ImageImageImage
MAL Ratings ISML Chat, Saimoe Blog, Saimoe Wiki
A tall, towering wall looms in front of me. Beyond that is something that I could never to see on my own.
And that is...the view from the top.
hinakatbklyn
Incubator
Incubator
Posts: 3720
Joined: Mon Nov 09, 2009 5:07 pm
Melon Pan: 55

Re: Oddsmaker/Percent Chance

Post by hinakatbklyn » Sun Feb 14, 2010 10:22 pm

Unless something weird happens, the final 6 who make it through Phase 3 might get wins against each other, but against the other 44, there's a chance they could get blown away.
User avatar
Team Rocket Elite
Moon princess
Moon princess
Posts: 3211
Joined: Wed Feb 18, 2009 2:43 am
Badges:
Image
Worships: Bernkastel
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: dried plums to go with the tea.

Re: Oddsmaker/Percent Chance

Post by Team Rocket Elite » Sun Feb 14, 2010 11:46 pm

hinakatbklyn wrote:Unless something weird happens, the final 6 who make it through Phase 3 might get wins against each other, but against the other 44, there's a chance they could get blown away.
Fukuji Mihoko, Haramura Nodoka, Okazaki Ushio. Whoever makes it through preliminaries will defintely beat the first 2 and will probably be stronger than Ushio as well.
A miracle that you believe in when you know it won't happen......... is hope.
User avatar
ithekro
Strike witch
Strike witch
Posts: 1229
Joined: Thu Feb 19, 2009 6:44 pm
Badges:
Image
Melon Pan: 50

Re: Oddsmaker/Percent Chance

Post by ithekro » Mon Feb 15, 2010 9:01 am

With some of the group for Phase II...some of the Phase III girls might be rather strong, just happened to have been in one of those groups that have four favorates in them, thus might be good against most, but weak against a few (basically the girls that should make top 25, but probably won't make top 16). The ones that could win 50% or better of their fights, rather than be the perfect zero of the tournament.
Image
Space Opera
amdrag
Cherry blossom
Cherry blossom
Posts: 942
Joined: Thu Jul 09, 2009 9:01 am
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: a lack of zetsuboushita.

Re: Oddsmaker/Percent Chance

Post by amdrag » Mon Feb 15, 2010 9:08 pm

Let's switch it up again. Last year, both Rozen Maiden and Suzumiya Haruhi no Yuutsuu sent three girls to the playoffs. I'll ask this question of the Alice Dolls if/when all three qualify to the regular season, but since the S.O.S. Brigade is all accounted for...

What is the percent chance that all three S.O.S. Brigade members (Haruhi Suzumiya, Yuki Nagato & Mikuru Asahina) return to the double-elimination tournament?
Image
Stocking's gonna need to see your f*****' hands at the concert.
User avatar
Team Rocket Elite
Moon princess
Moon princess
Posts: 3211
Joined: Wed Feb 18, 2009 2:43 am
Badges:
Image
Worships: Bernkastel
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: dried plums to go with the tea.

Re: Oddsmaker/Percent Chance

Post by Team Rocket Elite » Mon Feb 15, 2010 9:16 pm

amdrag wrote:What is the percent chance that all three S.O.S. Brigade members (Haruhi Suzumiya, Yuki Nagato & Mikuru Asahina) return to the double-elimination tournament?
I'd say Mikuru has a 25% chance of making the Top 16. So I'd say 25%.
A miracle that you believe in when you know it won't happen......... is hope.
User avatar
ithekro
Strike witch
Strike witch
Posts: 1229
Joined: Thu Feb 19, 2009 6:44 pm
Badges:
Image
Melon Pan: 50

Re: Oddsmaker/Percent Chance

Post by ithekro » Tue Feb 16, 2010 12:33 am

Only way Mikuru has a 100% chance of getting back to the top 16 is if there are more Haruhi epiosdes (though she did have some scenes in the movie, so that might help), since several of the episodes following the movie are Mikuru focused plots, she would get screentime (moe moments), where as now (the film) you basically will have a majority on Yuki and most of the remainder on Haruhi with lesser stuff for Mikuru.

As for the dolls....I'm hopefull, but these Phase II groups are murder. The only way to get the three necklace holders back would be both Phase II and Phase III. Otherwise those necklaces will not have a defender to challenge (much like Topaz last year since Setsuna didn't return).
Image
Space Opera
Locked