2010 Questions (formerly Oddsmaker/Percent Chance)

[amdrag]

Let's switch it up again.

With 20 spots yet to be claimed, there's still some powerful girls sitting on the outside looking in... but with the strength of the 30 girls who have already qualified, it's going to be tough going once the regular season begins.

What's the percent chance that one of the final 20 girls to qualify for the regular season will make the playoffs?

[ithekro]

No good at percenage chances, but the only ones I see being able to pull the numbers needed to challenge the currect top 16 (post-seeding) would be Nagasa, Kotomi, Hitagi, Maria, and maybe Tsukasa. Unless the dolls start blowing people away agian that is.

[Chocola]

If I were asked if Nagisa, Kotomi, Hitagi, Maria, or Tsukasa can make top 16, I'd say less than 25% chance for all of them. But for at least one of them to make it, there's a possibility, maybe 25%.

[Darth Blitzer]

10%

it will be difficult, it'll take a combination of a shift in voter demographics and some hate voting but with how long the ISML season is that's entirely within the realm of possibility, otherwise i'm fairly cynical about their chances of getting in, i mean they are the bottom 20 for a reason

[Demi.]

We all know Nanoha will make top 16. She looks oh so weak, but she's the miracle maker.

ISML 2009: 22nd highest vote total, rank - 14th.

lol I jest, she's screwed. Doesn't look like any of the remaining 20 have much of a chance. If I had to gamble, Hitagi would be my best bet. She started fairly weak, and each match she seems to be gaining in power. With the final 2 eps of Bakemono soon to air, it might be what she needs to place a top 16 finish.

[amdrag]

I'm going 32%. Suigintou, Shinku and Desu are still out there. Hitagi's still out there. Nagisa's still out there. Minori could get some "we love Toradora" mojo.

[Demi.]

If Minori makes top 16, I can safely say I've experienced every crazy thing ISML has to offer.

The dolls are doomed.

[hinakatbklyn]

Going on vote totals, I can see 1 with a good chance of making the top 16 from Phase 2 and 2 with an outside shot based on prior appearances.
Hitagi has the good chance at 20% of making the top 16 through Phase 2.
Since Nanoha and CC both had prior appearances in the Top 16 (CC doing well vote wise), I give each a 10% chance of making it.

[amdrag]

Now we've got an interesting situation, and an interesting situation deserves a new format. Last week, I talked about The Melancholy..., one of the two shows that got three girls into last year's playoffs. The other show, Rozen Maiden, was thought by many to be a lock to send their three girls back to the regular season. Now, not so much.

With Shinku, Suigintou and Suiseiseki all losing their group final yesterday, the three Alice Dolls are now fighting for the final six spots... along with 92 other girls. With so much competition, How many of the Rozen Maiden dolls will make it to the regular season?

[ilkaid]

I'd say only 1, that one being Suigintou.

[amdrag]

The girls of Saki have looked downright anemic in their matches thus far. With two girls in the regular season - and a chance for a third - their performance thus far may draw some comparisons to last year's Touhou girls. Touhou sent five girls to the regular season and finished with a combined record of 53-262**, or a .168 winning percentage. The question is, will Saki's representatives combine for a better record than Touhou?

*Two representatives would need a record of 17-81 to beat Touhou's mark. If Saki sends three, it would take a record of 25-122 to top Touhou.
**For calculation purposes, Touhou's record includes an overtime win by Remilia Scarlet as a win.

[ilkaid]

Based on the voting patterns so far I would say no they wont get a third representative, and they wont get a better record than Touhou.

[Team Rocket Elite]

The total number of wins by Saki characters in the regular season will not exceed the number of matches won by the worst Touhou character last year. Saki characters are really weak. You want them to get 17 wins? I think the Saki characters will be happy if they can come away with 5 combined wins including the free win in the match against each other.

[ithekro]

Basically they'd be lucky to beat "Osaka" at this point.

[minhtam1638]

Now we've got an interesting situation, and an interesting situation deserves a new format. Last week, I talked about The Melancholy..., one of the two shows that got three girls into last year's playoffs. The other show, Rozen Maiden, was thought by many to be a lock to send their three girls back to the regular season. Now, not so much.

With Shinku, Suigintou and Suiseiseki all losing their group final yesterday, the three Alice Dolls are now fighting for the final six spots... along with 92 other girls. With so much competition, How many of the Rozen Maiden dolls will make it to the regular season?

I can't believe I am saying this, because I have so much respect for what the Rozen Maiden dolls have done since their inclusion to Saimoe Japan in 2005, not to a particular rivalry involving one of them played a role in the inception of ISML in 2008, but...

[Toady]

Nodoka will beat Mihoko. That'll make 1-97. So, minhtam, you're wrong ^^

The 42 (!) first other candidates will certainly win against both of them. On the six left, even if one or two are weaker (but there shouldn't be any), they can't win 17 matchs.

[minhtam1638]

Nodoka will beat Mihoko. That'll make 1-97. So, minhtam, you're wrong ^^

The 42 (!) first other candidates will certainly win against both of them. On the six left, even if one or two are weaker (but there shouldn't be any), they can't win 17 matchs.

Did you even read my post? I wasn't talking about the Saki girls.

[amdrag]

Basically they'd be lucky to beat "Osaka" at this point.

Osaka didn't deserve 0-63. She's much more moe than a Detroit Lion.

[ithekro]

She didn't deserve it, but it was the hand she was dealt, and thus what the Saki girls have to beat (one will have to because there can be only one 0-49....but never again a 0-63). Runner up in Saimoe 2002 doesn't mean as much as it use to...but then none of the 2003 or 2004 girls are even in this contest, nor will they be because hardly anyone internationally knows them. In fact the only ones I recognize from the top 16 of those years are Hinata Natsumi, Elenore Baker and Ranpha Franboise from 2004 and Eclair from 2003. Where as we have a few from 2002 playing: Sakura, Tomoyo, Chii, Tessa, Rei (and previously "Osaka"). Part of the 2005 group has been represented by the Nanoha and Rozen Maiden factions since the beginnning, with 2006 and on being the starting blocks for ISML.

[Toady]

Nodoka will beat Mihoko. That'll make 1-97. So, minhtam, you're wrong ^^

The 42 (!) first other candidates will certainly win against both of them. On the six left, even if one or two are weaker (but there shouldn't be any), they can't win 17 matchs.

Did you even read my post? I wasn't talking about the Saki girls.

Sorry
I only read the picture it seems, you're right. I hope I didn't offend you