Let's talk about the chance of your moe characters. Below are my own opinion about each character's chance this year and I would love to read anyone's too.
Here is my completed list:
1 Fate Testarossa Harlaown
2 Aisaka Taiga
3 Suzumiya Haruhi
4 Hakurei Reimu
5 Nagato Yuki
6 Shana
7 Hiiragi Kagami
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8 Katsura Hinagiku
9 Syameimaru Aya
10 Izumi Konata
11 Kirisame Marisa
12 Sakagami Tomoyo
13 Fujibayashi Kyou
14 Takamachi Nanoha
15 Ichinose Kotomi
16 C.C.
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17 Suigintou
18 Kawasumi Mai
19 Hiiragi Tsukasa
20 Kushieda Minori
21 Asahina Mikuru
22 Furukawa Nagisa
23 Sanzenin Nagi
24 Furude Rika
25 Ryuguu Rena
26 Horo
27 Saber
28 Remilia Scarlet
29 Tsukimiya Ayu
30 Tohsaka Rin
31 Minase Nayuki
32 Ibuki Fuuko
33 Kinomoto Sakura
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34 Maria
35 Konjiki no Yami
36 Sawatari Makoto
37 Kurata Sayuri
38 Patchouli Knowledge
39 Suiseiseki
40 Hinamori Amu
41 Kamio Misuzu
42 Sunohara Mei
43 Nagi
44 Louise Françoise le Blanc de la Vallière
45 Chi
46 Evangeline A.K. McDowell
47 Anya Alstreim
48 Yagami Hayate
49 Misaka Shiori
50 Kawazoe Tamaki
51 Shinku
52 Furude Hanyuu
53 Illyasviel von Einzbern
54 Kawashima Ami
55 Misaka Mikoto
56 Chiba Kirino
57 Ryougi Shiki
58 Kasuga 'Osaka' Ayumu
59 Katagiri Yuuhi
60 Index
61 Alice Carroll
62 Vita
63 Kouzuki Kallen
64 Mizunashi Akari
Part 1

Aisaka Taiga
Toradora!
Eligibility: Through Preliminaries Round 1
Along with this year's Touhou domination, Taiga has proved herself to be tough enough to get pass through. It will depend on whether she can make it better than the veterans or not. To be honest, with her popularity from the anime this year, I think she will make it even better than Shana.
My Expectation: Tiara Challenger
My Final Prediction: 2nd
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Alice Carroll
ARIA
Eligibility: Through Preliminaries Round 7
Alice did not make any impressive work last year and without ARIA on air recently, I would not expect any chance of her doing good this season.
My Expectation: No Can Do
My Final Prediction: 61st
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Anya Alstreim
Code Geass Hangyaku no Lelouch
Eligibility: Through Preliminaries Round 4
Anya did not bad in the preliminaries even a bit late to pass through. Anyway, I can't be convinced that she will make it better than C.C.. Along with other strong contestants, it would be a hard job for her to run into top half.
My Expectation: Hard to Survive
My Final Prediction: 47th
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Asahina Mikuru
Suzumiya Haruhi no Yuuutsu
Eligibility: .500 Clause (ISML)
Mikuru made not bad last year, but I think it will get tougher this year. So the best I can expect of her is to maintain her last record.
My Expectation: Mid-table Finish Without Any Chance of Getting Into Top 16
My Final Prediction: 21st
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C.C.
Code Geass Hangyaku no Lelouch
Eligibility: 8th (ISML)
C.C. had shown herself as one of the challengers last year. She was around the boundary of Big 7 territory, but it sure will be harder this year. Anyway, I would say she has potential to keep her place in Top 16 again this year.
My Expectation: Barely Achieve Double Elimination Period
My Final Prediction: 16th
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Chi
Chobits
Eligibility: Through Preliminaries Round 6
Chi really showed some potential but was edged pass so many times until she made it at the sixth round. We can expect something from Chi this year but I do not think she can achieve much though. All I can hope for her is to make some surprise wins against veterans and leave the tournament with memories.
My Expectation: Hard to Survive
My Final Prediction: 45th
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Chiba Kirino
Bamboo Blade
Eligibility: 8th (Japan)
With Tama-chan's record last year, I would admit that I cannot expect any better from Kirino and she will just enjoy this tournament.
My Expectation: Get Kicked Out
My Final Prediction: 56th
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Evangeline A.K. McDowell
Negima!?
Eligibility: .500 Clause (ISML)
Eva barely grab .500 clause last year, and with the harder tournament this year, she does not stand a chance to get higher. Likely, it would be a bad dropping of her record and would be hard to achieve .500 clause again.
My Expectation: Time to be Taken Down
My Final Prediction: 46th

Fate Testarossa Harlaown
Mahou Shoujo Lyrical Nanoha
Eligibility: 1st (ISML)
It can be said that I do not have much to say about Fate. With her totally domination last season, I would expect the same thing this time too. All you can hope for others is to have some New Entries like Taiga or Reimu to be up aginst her, and some attacks from former elites.
[In Fate Me Trust]
My Expectation: Dominate the Tournament as Ever
My Final Prediction: 1st
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Fujibayashi Kyou
CLANNAD
Eligibility: 10th (ISML), Sapphire (ISML), 2nd (Korea)
Kyou also was one of the Big7 last season. And of course, you can expect the great performance from the Kyoani girls. But with her lack of roles in the anime, her popularity might drop down a bit. Anyway, I still believe that she will catch up with the top group of the standings.
My Expectation: Easily Achieve Top 16
My Final Prediction: 13th
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Furude Hanyuu
Higurashi no Naku Koro ni
Eligibility: .500 Clause (ISML)
To be straight to the point, I think Higurashi girls will face crisis this year. Looking at the nomination period, not even single one make it to the preliminaries. I assume that Higurashi popularity is dropping and so do characters. Hanyuu did only edge the lifeline last year and I do not believe she will survive again.
My Expectation: Heavily Drop
My Final Prediction: 52nd
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Furude Rika
Higurashi no Naku Koro ni
Eligibility: 12th (ISML), 8th (Korea)
Same as Hanyuu, Rika might be dropping as well but not much. I'm sure she will at least be able to survive .500 clause, It depends on her fans' perservation to make her challenge double elimination period again or not.
My Expectation: Around Double Elimination Period Boundary
My Final Prediction: 24th
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Furukawa Nagisa
CLANNAD
Eligibility: 4th (Japan)
Dango girl has her chance to show her moe power this season of anime. I would say I expect even better than her record last year. Hopefully, she might be able to grab Top 16. May the Kyoani force be with Dango this year, and she might has some advantages.
My Expectation: Up to Top 16
My Final Prediction: 22nd
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Hakurei Reimu
Touhou Musou Kakyou
Eligibility: Through Preliminaries Round 1
Here is the talk of the town game series. As you would have seen in the preliminaries and nomination statistics, it is not like only five characters make it to regular season, but all five of them make it so early. With super popular Touhou, I cannot avoid saying that they all have a chance up to Double Elimination period. Especially Reimu, the most moe of Touhou, who will be able to challenge the Big7.
My Expectation: Becomes One of the Greatest
My Final Prediction: 4th
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Hiiragi Kagami
Lucky☆Star
Eligibility: 3rd (ISML), Amethyst + Emerald (ISML), 1st (Japan)
Lucky☆Star popularities never drop and their favourites Kagami will, of course, be with the top group of the table. She will be one of the Tiara challenger.
My Expectation: Maintain Superiority
My Final Prediction: 7th
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Hiiragi Tsukasa

Hiiragi Tsukasa
Lucky☆Star
Eligibility: 13th (ISML), 2nd (Japan)
Tsukasa, unlike her sis, not performed very well as I expected. She barely make it to the double elimination period, but I do not think she will do it again this year. Anyway, I'm still sure that she will not drop heavily and might even make surprise attack on the big ones.
My Expectation: Need Luck to Get to Top 16
My Final Prediction: 19th

Hinamori Amu
Shugo Chara!
Eligibility: Through Preliminaries Round 1
Amu-chan is one of the first group who pass the preliminaries, which really surprised me. I don't know how well she will do in the regular season, but she is the one with full support of me. Not talking biasingly, I think Amu was with luck to make to the regular season so fast. She might be up to top of the table or disappoint her fans by even get lost. (Well, sorry so wide range of prediction. I have not much chance to see her fight for her seat)
My Expectation: Around Survival Boundary
My Final Prediction: 40th (Sorry I love her but cannot believe she will survive)
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Horo
Spice and Wolf
Eligibility: 1st (Korea)
I've heard that the second anime of Spice and Wolf will be on air this summer. With that, Horo will have some chance of boosting her record in the last period of regular season. But with tougher season, I don't think she will have any chance to get to top 16.
My Expectation: Barely Survive
My Final Prediction: 26th
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Ibuki Fuuko
CLANNAD
Eligibility: 6th (Japan)
Well, Kyoani is still Kyoani. While others might drop, I believe they will still keep their pace, so do Fuuko, who finished not bad last year. Anyway, with more competitive this year, it will be harder to achieve someting higher.
My Expectation: Barely Survive
My Final Prediction: 32nd
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Ichinose Kotomi
CLANNAD
Eligibility: 5th (ISML)
Kotomi surprisingly proved that she is the closest one to involve herself into Big7 territory. But with her very lack of role in the anime, sadly, I have to say it is very hard to keep her place in double elimination period.
My Expectation: Edge Into Double Elimination Period
My Final Prediction: 15th
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Illyasviel von Einzbern
Fate/stay night
Eligibility: Through Preliminaries Round 4
As someone would expect me to say that Ilya can never surpass Saber and Rin. So the best you can hope is to have her survive. More likely, I don't think she will.
My Expectation: Stand No Chance
My Final Prediction: 53rd
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Index
To Aru Majutsu no Index
Eligibility: Through Preliminaries Round 5
Another newcomer who perform not so stable in her preliminaries. In the anime, Index is one of the main heroine with the least role I've ever seen. So, I don't believe she will make it better than railgun again when it comes to the regular season which need more consistencies.
My Expectation: Leave Without Any Achievement
My Final Prediction: 60th
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Izumi Konata
Lucky☆Star
Eligibility: 4th (ISML)
The incredibly strong candidate who took down three Big7s one after another. Well, she will, of course, be in top 16. Maybe this year will be hers to make to the highest group in regular season by her Kagami's side. lol
My Expectation: Get to Top 16 Easily
My Final Prediction: 10th
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Kamio Misuzu
AIR
Eligibility: Through Preliminaries Round 3
Looking at the wonderful play in the preliminaries, you cannot ignore her existance in regular season. She might hit some big names and sneak in to top 16 sometimes. But anyway, without stability, she will drop to the lifeline and have to flounder around to survive.
My Expectation: Try Her Best to Survive
My Final Prediction: 41st

Kasuga 'Osaka' Ayumu
Azumanga Daioh
Eligibility: Through Preliminaries Round 6
If you look through the statistics in preliminaries, you will find that Osaka arrived surprisingly late. She topped every table each round, but could not make it until sixth. But to talk about the regular season, she will not have very much chance as she is, to said frankly, too old. I don't think she will be able to compete with others without younger-fan base.
My Expectation: Very Hard to Survive
My Final Prediction: 58th
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Katagiri Yuuhi
Akane-iro ni Somaru Saka
Eligibility: Through Preliminaries Round 6
The fifth to be added to Kugimiya Rie Alliance. Well, that's that, I cannot help but to consider that she cannot be compared with other four. In fact, she is one of the most unstable candidate in preliminaries and that's so bad.
My Expectation: No Chance at All
My Final Prediction: 59th
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Katsura Hinagiku
Hayate no Gotoku!
Eligibility: 11th (ISML), 3rd (Japan), 3rd (Korea)
With the anime coming this Spring, I dare say she will be successful sneaking into the top group this year. So no consideration about her chance of getting to top 16 or not. I also believe that she will even smash some Big7s amazingly.
My Expectation: Easily Achieve Top 16
My Final Prediction: 8th
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Kawashima Ami
Toradora!
Eligibility: Through Preliminaries Round 5
Consider her results in the preliminaries, I would say she is out of competition compared to Taiga and Minori, so no chance to achieve top 16. More likely, she will just come and go.
My Expectation: No Match With Her Friends
My Final Prediction: 54th
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Kawasumi Mai
Kanon
Eligibility: 16th (ISML)
Mai did very well last year considering that she was on air in 2006, edge into Double Elimination period. But this tougher year will make her move down a bit, and that bit will take her out of top 16.
My Expectation: On Double Elimination Period Borderline
My Final Prediction: 18th
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Kawazoe Tamaki
Bamboo Blade
Eligibility: 6th (Japan)
Tamaki once again challenge the tournament after get eliminated last year. This coming back, however, will not impress much and she will just enjoy again. The best to hope for her is to maintain her place.
My Expectation: Cannot Survive
My Final Prediction: 50th
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Kinomoto Sakura
Cardcaptor Sakura
Eligibility: .500 Clause (ISML)
Sakura had no aggressive performance last year, but just survived quietly. However, I believe she is one the first girl to be called 'moe' in the anime history. And even moving slightly downward, she will still manage to survive .500 clause.
My Expectation: On the Lifeline
My Final Prediction: 33rd
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Kirisame Marisa
Touhou Musou Kakyou
Eligibility: Through Preliminaries Round 2
Marisa is one of the three from Touhou, alongside with Reimu and Aya, who I consider will make some achivements this year. I still doubt why she was edged pass by Amu, but I believe she will do better when it comes to regular season. The best I predict for her is, hopefully, the Tiara for this short-but-powerful Mage.
My Expectation: Flash up to Top
My Final Prediction: 11th

Konjiki no Yami
To LOVE-Ru
Eligibility: 9th (Korea)
Yami grabbed her place at Korea, so I have no chance to see how she would perform in the preliminaries. All I have to say about her is that I believe she is moe enough to make some good jobs. Anyway, I do not expect her to be so great.
My Expectation: Dead or Alive
My Final Prediction: 35th
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Kouzuki Kallen
Code Geass Hangyaku no Lelouch
Eligibility: Through Preliminaries Round 8
This is the last candidate who made through the preliminaries and it is hurt to say that she will not be able to achieve anything for sure.
My Expectation: Get Killed With Honor
My Final Prediction: 63rd
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Kurata Sayuri
Kanon
Eligibility: .500 Clause (ISML)
Same as many ones above, this year will be tougher for AHAHA~girl too. She will drop down at some level and will have a hard time to hold herself in the safe zone.
My Expectation: Might be Able to Survive
My Final Prediction: 37th
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Kushieda Minori
Toradora!
Eligibility: Through Preliminaries Round 2
Another interesting new entry, Minori's performance is really something in the preliminaries. And I'm sure she will show some achivement in regular season too. I will admit that her chance of Double Elimination is not zero.
My Expectation: Up to Top 16
My Final Prediction: 20th
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Louise Françoise le Blanc de la Vallière
Zero no Tsukaima
Eligibility: .500 Clause (ISML)
Louise had a tough time to survive last year. Of course, This more competitive year will be the time to eliminate her because of her own less popularity too.
My Expectation: Time to Get Lost
My Final Prediction: 44th
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Maria
Hayate no Gotoku!
Eligibility: .500 Clause (ISML)
This maid will also have a bad time this year, but with the anime coming soon, she might have her votes boosted. That will be the important factor to make her survive .500 clause again or not.
My Expectation: Need Some Luck to Survive
My Final Prediction: 34th
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Minase Nayuki
Kanon
Eligibility: .500 Clause (ISML)
I always believe in Kyoani girls, so does this one. Nayuki did very well on the standings last season, and even some drop this year, I still have faith that Kyoani's influence will help her to barely survive.
My Expectation: Near the Death
My Final Prediction: 31st
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Misaka Mikoto
To Aru Majutsu no Index
Eligibility: Through Preliminaries Round 6
This is another one I support this year. Leave biasing aside, I will have to say that she has no chance winning too many to make her survive. My beloved Raigun will just take time to observe the tournament.
My Expectation: Leave Fast
My Final Prediction: 55th

Misaka Shiori
Kanon
Eligibility: Through Preliminaries Round 5
Shiori is one of the candidates who came back passing through the preliminaries, which I do not have much to say about. She did not make any impressive stuff except topping her group in round 5 miraculously.
My Expectation: Just Enjoy Again
My Final Prediction: 49th
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Mizunashi Akari
ARIA
Eligibility: 6th (Korea)
This one is the hardest for me to comment. To tell the truth, I have to say that I do love her very much but I feel that she might have used all her lucks to become one of the participants. And it is just my own opinion that she will not exceed Alice's achievement (61st in my list). Below is my painful conclusion...
My Expectation: Bye-Bye
My Final Prediction: 64th
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Nagato Yuki
Suzumiya Haruhi no Yuuutsu
Eligibility: 2nd (ISML)
Of course, Yuki will be one of the Tiara Challengers without doubt. I rate her base on fully hope to see the anime within this year. If we will see so, then her popurality will be boosted and she will be one serious contender again.
My Expectation: Tiara Challenger
My Final Prediction: 5th
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Nagi
Kannagi
Eligibility: Through Preliminaries Round 3
Another hard-to-predict candidate. I believe she has some potential. She started not so well in the preliminaries, but brought back her performance very fast and made it in round 3. Well, her range will be a very long one, but I would predict her to fight just for .500 clause.
My Expectation: Hope to Survive
My Final Prediction: 43rd
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Patchouli Knowledge
Touhou Musou Kakyou
Eligibility: Through Preliminaries Round 2
I do not believe she is moe at all (Sorry Patchy's followers). I believe she just came with Touhou logo on her head and will not survive in the harder one like regular season. But well, I do not want to underestimate any Touhou candidate anyway.
My Expectation: Unpredictable
My Final Prediction: 38th
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Remilia Scarlet
Touhou Musou Kakyou
Eligibility: Through Preliminaries Round 2
Mostly same as Patchy, but I think she should make it better than Patchy at least. My SaiMoe experience tells me that the shorter and flatter, the better (Though I cannot understand why, Anyone?). I believe Remilia will not upset Touhou fans so much.
My Expectation: Should be Survive and Maybe up to Top 16
My Final Prediction: 28th
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Ryougi Shiki
Kara no Kyoukai
Eligibility: Through Preliminaries Round 5
Shiki made it much better than I expected in the preliminaries and her entry is somewhat incredible to me. I'm not sure if her performance is great because of that TSUN scene in the fifth movie, but I have to tell that it will not be easy in regular season. Shiki does not possess moe power much compared to other cuties and that will disappoint her.
My Expectation: Her Eyes are Useless This Time
My Final Prediction: 57th
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Ryuguu Rena
Higurashi no Naku Koro ni
Eligibility: .500 Clause (ISML)
I still insist my opinion on Higurashi as I mentioned earlier. Rena too, will also move down some places, but still, I'm sure many voters will still see her moe enough to vote for and she will be able to hold herself together.
My Expectation: Drop Down
My Final Prediction: 25th

Saber
Fate/stay night
Eligibility: .500 Clause (ISML)
Saber made it impressively last year, but the more are coming this year. Even not target her directly, I think she will move down at some level. Anyway, I still have full faith she will do it good enough.
My Expectation: Survive
My Final Prediction: 27th
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Sakagami Tomoyo
CLANNAD
Eligibility: 7th (ISML), 7th (Japan), 7th (Korea)
Here is another one I believe to be rid off the highest territory. Tomoyo did amazing job last year, finishing as one of the three co-champions in regular season. But this year will not be the same for her as I do not believe that she has enough stability of popularity compared to those like Haruhi or Fate. I will conclude that she will drop down a little which will make her move out from the Big7.
My Expectation: Slightly Drop But Still Great
My Final Prediction: 12th
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Sanzenin Nagi
Hayate no Gotoku!
Eligibility: 5th (Korea)
Nagi is the trustable candidate just because of Hayate franchise with Kugimiya Rie as her symbols. With the anime coming soon, her popularity will shoot up and I expect her to be more challenging for Double Elimination.
My Expectation: Depend on Fever (Up to Top 16)
My Final Prediction: 23rd
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Sawatari Makoto
Kanon
Eligibility: Through Preliminaries Round 3
Makoto can be considered one of the strongest newcomers. She did well in the preliminaries, but maybe just because her opponents were not really tough. Frankly, I do not believe she will make the same greatness as before and will just have to flounder around the boundary.
My Expectation: Might Survive
My Final Prediction: 36th
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Shana
Shakugan no Shana
Eligibility: 6th (ISML), Aquamarine (ISML), 4th (Korea)
Again with Kugimiya Rie alliance member. Shana is very strong last season and same here. She does not have many voters against her and that will be the key to success. I'm convinced that she will not lose to anyone below Big7, not even against Key-VisualArts.
My Expectation: Overkill
My Final Prediction: 6th
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Shinku
Rozen Maiden
Eligibility: Through Preliminaries Round 3
Shinku is another come-back candidate, which I have to say that they are the lowest rank in my list because it is very very hard to fight back and survive. So will Shinku, be just and observer again.
My Expectation: Dies
My Final Prediction: 51st
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Suigintou
Rozen Maiden
Eligibility: 15th (ISML)
The highest to be expected from the doll trio is Suigintou for sure, because she even sneaked into Top 16 last year and she will again challenge the Double Elimination boundary. But I would like to say that she will miss it pitifully at last.
My Expectation: Fight Her Way to Double Elimination
My Final Prediction: 17th
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Suiseiseki
Rozen Maiden
Eligibility: .500 Clause (ISML)
Same goes to her as her sis. This year will be the time for Desu to leave the tournament as she will lower herself from last year position and she will not survive with that.
My Expectation: Time to Go
My Final Prediction: 39th

Sunohara Mei
CLANNAD
Eligibility: Through Preliminaries Round 4
According to her performance shown in the preliminaries, I think Mei is another potential candidate. But with so many of other CLANNAD girls within the league, she must be the weakest among them. Seeing Fuuko can just finish mid-table, I cannot hope more from Mei even would like to do so.
My Expectation: Would Love to See Her Again Next Year, But...
My Final Prediction: 42nd
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Suzumiya Haruhi
Suzumiya Haruhi no Yuuutsu
Eligibility: 9th (ISML), Ruby + Diamond (ISML)
2-necklace holder from last year can be expected to have great achivement this season too. But to talk about how high she would be? Haruhi was idle around the top territory and finish very well onthe 3rd place. It is obvious that only ones who can be up against her would be Fate or Shana with some other New entries.
My Expectation: God-like
My Final Prediction: 3rd
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Syameimaru Aya
Touhou Musou Kakyou
Eligibility: Through Preliminaries Round 1
Aya did excellent in preliminaries and can be expected not to do badly in regular season. I cannot believe she will be able to match Reimu, but still, she will make it good enough to obtain some small chance of Tiara challenging.
My Expectation: Fly to the Top
My Final Prediction: 9th
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Takamachi Nanoha
Mahou Shoujo Lyrical Nanoha
Eligibility: 14th (ISML)
To be honest, Nanoha diappointed my expectation last season. Even without large difference, I would say she cannot be compared to Fate (Between 7th and 8th is a big gap). Well, this year will not be too bad for her, should be easily achieve Top 16. Her popularity will also be boosted by her Loli version of the movie this year. But again, she will be outside the highest territory.
My Expectation: Works Well as Ever
My Final Prediction: 14th
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Tohsaka Rin
Fate/stay night
Eligibility: .500 Clause (ISML)
With another year passed, Rin's popularity get less. With her latest position, I would say she will have a hard time to survive again this time. And of course, she will not top Saber, though I hope so.
My Expectation: Mid-table
My Final Prediction: 30th
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Tsukimiya Ayu
Kanon
Eligibility: .500 Clause (ISML)
Ayu did great last season without any problem to reach .500 clause. But as I told many times apply to this girl, Ayu too, will step downward and will have to get serious to survive.
My Expectation: Mid-table
My Final Prediction: 29th
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Vita
Mahou Shoujo Lyrical Nanoha
Eligibility: Through Preliminaries Round 7
Vita is the last one coming back to participate and I cannot expect the same level from her again. Consider that she barely made it through the preliminaries, and without her role in the movie of Nanoha franchise, I think Vita has no chance even to challenge survival stage and will finish painful position.
My Expectation: Get Killed
My Final Prediction: 62th
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Yagami Hayate
Mahou Shoujo Lyrical Nanoha
Eligibility: Through Preliminaries Round 4
And here is the commander, another from Nanoha franchise. Well, I'm just amazed that her make it through the preliminaries out of nowhere which really make me glad. But sorry, even how much I love her, I cannot put her on the same level with her best friends. I also believe that she cannot be compared to other new entries like Minorin. The extremely prejudice of me is to predict her to have some chance to survive.
My Expectation: No Way She Can Make MSLN Trio on Top
My Final Prediction: 48th