Modified Pot value experiment
- maglor
- ~Fukou da~
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Modified Pot value experiment
This thread is to explain, discuss, and perhaps gather new input and analysis on the open project discussed in the following post : http://www.internationalsaimoe.com/foru ... 61#p413961" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Let's start with 2017 with character that was most talked about for the entire year, REM ( Megumi, the tiara winner, received lion-size of attention during elimination period, which, surprisingly, is typical of most Tiara winners. It actually is uncommon for #1 or 2 seed to win the elimination period )
Going into the 1st match of 2017, REM would have 100 points, just like everyone else. Her opponent Saten Ruiko also would have 100 points in her pot.
Now, since we are dealing with 3 separate percentages for the "betting amount" it may be easier to consider that every one has actually 3 pots, one titled N=0.1, another titled N=0.2, and the last titled N=0.5. All 3 pots have 100 points for both characters.
For the match Rem and Ruiko both pulls out appropriate percentage of what's inside the pot as their bets.
from N=0.1 pot, they pull out 10 on to the betting table, leaving 90 behind. N=0.1 table would have total of 10+10 = 20 points
from N=0.2 pot, they pull out 20 on to the betting table, leaving 80 behind. N=0.2 table would have total of 20+20 = 40 points
from N=0.5 pot, they pull out 50 on to the betting table, leaving 50 behind. N=0.5 table would have total of 50+50 = 100 points
The result of Aquamarine 1 match was 709 votes for Saten Ruiko and 1173 votes for Rem . Since Rem's VF% is 62.327%, she would receive 62.327% of the values on the table, while Ruiko will take the remaining 37.673%
The amount they take back is as follows
Rem take N=0.1 : 12.46546227
Rem take N=0.2 : 24.93092455
Rem take N=0.5 : 62.32731137
Ruiko take N=0.1 : 7.534537726
Ruiko take N=0.2 : 15.06907545
Ruiko take N=0.5 : 37.67268863
Note that while they contributed the same amount into the pot, they take back different amount. After they split the pot, Rem and Ruiko would both have new values for each of their three pots
Rem's new pot N=0.1 : 102.4654623
Rem's new pot N=0.2 : 104.9309245
Rem's new pot N=0.3 : 112.3273114
Ruiko's new pot N=0.1 : 97.53453773
Ruiko's new pot N=0.2 : 95.06907545
Ruiko's new pot N=0.3 : 87.67268863
Thus ended the first round.
Now, in the 2nd round Rem meets Sento Isuzu. Isuzu lost to Kōsaka Reina with VF of 49.22%. Her pot entering into Round 1 is as follows
Sento Isuzu New Pot N=0.1 : 99.84343091
Sento Isuzu New Pot N=0.2 : 99.68686181
Sento Isuzu New Pot N=0.5 : 99.21715453
We start the process again, but now, note that they contribute different amount into each pot
Into N=0.1 pot, Rem contributes 10.247, Isuzu contributes 9.984. The total for the pot is 20.23088932
Into N= 0.2 pot Rem contributes 20.986. Isuzu contributes 19.937. The total for the pot is 40.92355727
Into N=0.5 pot Rem contributes 56.164. Isuzu contributes 49.609. The total for the pot is 105.7722329
The match was 1601 to 874 in favor of Rem. Thus Rem takes 64.69% of the pot
The amount they take back is as follows
Rem take N=0.1 : 13.08672881
Rem take N=0.2 : 26.47216775
Rem take N=0.5 : 68.42074543
Isuzu take N=0.1 : 7.144160511
Isuzu take N=0.2 : 14.45138952
Isuzu take N=0.5 : 37.35148751
Their new pot values are now as follows
Rem's new pot N=0.1 : 105.3056449
Rem's new pot N=0.2 : 110.4169074
Rem's new pot N=0.3 : 124.5844011
Sento Isuzu New Pot N=0.1 : 97.00324833
Sento Isuzu New Pot N=0.2 : 94.20087897
Sento Isuzu New Pot N=0.5 : 86.96006478
Thus ends Round 2
Now in Round 3, Rem meets Kasugano Sora. Kasugano Sora enters into the match with pot values as follows
Kasugano Sora new pot n=0.1 : 101.627352
Kasugano Sora new pot n=0.2 : 103.2188397
Kasugano Sora new pot n=0.5 : 107.7781175
We do the process again
Into N=0.1 pot, Rem contributes 10.531, Isuzu contributes10.163. The total for the pot is 20.69329968
Into N= 0.2 pot Rem contributes 22.083. Isuzu contributes 20.644. The total for the pot is 42.72714943
Into N=0.5 pot Rem contributes 62.292. Isuzu contributes 53.889. The total for the pot is 116.1812593
The match was 1031 to 577 in favor of Rem. Thus Rem takes 64.12% of the pot
---------------------- Work in progress
Let's start with 2017 with character that was most talked about for the entire year, REM ( Megumi, the tiara winner, received lion-size of attention during elimination period, which, surprisingly, is typical of most Tiara winners. It actually is uncommon for #1 or 2 seed to win the elimination period )
Going into the 1st match of 2017, REM would have 100 points, just like everyone else. Her opponent Saten Ruiko also would have 100 points in her pot.
Now, since we are dealing with 3 separate percentages for the "betting amount" it may be easier to consider that every one has actually 3 pots, one titled N=0.1, another titled N=0.2, and the last titled N=0.5. All 3 pots have 100 points for both characters.
For the match Rem and Ruiko both pulls out appropriate percentage of what's inside the pot as their bets.
from N=0.1 pot, they pull out 10 on to the betting table, leaving 90 behind. N=0.1 table would have total of 10+10 = 20 points
from N=0.2 pot, they pull out 20 on to the betting table, leaving 80 behind. N=0.2 table would have total of 20+20 = 40 points
from N=0.5 pot, they pull out 50 on to the betting table, leaving 50 behind. N=0.5 table would have total of 50+50 = 100 points
The result of Aquamarine 1 match was 709 votes for Saten Ruiko and 1173 votes for Rem . Since Rem's VF% is 62.327%, she would receive 62.327% of the values on the table, while Ruiko will take the remaining 37.673%
The amount they take back is as follows
Rem take N=0.1 : 12.46546227
Rem take N=0.2 : 24.93092455
Rem take N=0.5 : 62.32731137
Ruiko take N=0.1 : 7.534537726
Ruiko take N=0.2 : 15.06907545
Ruiko take N=0.5 : 37.67268863
Note that while they contributed the same amount into the pot, they take back different amount. After they split the pot, Rem and Ruiko would both have new values for each of their three pots
Rem's new pot N=0.1 : 102.4654623
Rem's new pot N=0.2 : 104.9309245
Rem's new pot N=0.3 : 112.3273114
Ruiko's new pot N=0.1 : 97.53453773
Ruiko's new pot N=0.2 : 95.06907545
Ruiko's new pot N=0.3 : 87.67268863
Thus ended the first round.
Now, in the 2nd round Rem meets Sento Isuzu. Isuzu lost to Kōsaka Reina with VF of 49.22%. Her pot entering into Round 1 is as follows
Sento Isuzu New Pot N=0.1 : 99.84343091
Sento Isuzu New Pot N=0.2 : 99.68686181
Sento Isuzu New Pot N=0.5 : 99.21715453
We start the process again, but now, note that they contribute different amount into each pot
Into N=0.1 pot, Rem contributes 10.247, Isuzu contributes 9.984. The total for the pot is 20.23088932
Into N= 0.2 pot Rem contributes 20.986. Isuzu contributes 19.937. The total for the pot is 40.92355727
Into N=0.5 pot Rem contributes 56.164. Isuzu contributes 49.609. The total for the pot is 105.7722329
The match was 1601 to 874 in favor of Rem. Thus Rem takes 64.69% of the pot
The amount they take back is as follows
Rem take N=0.1 : 13.08672881
Rem take N=0.2 : 26.47216775
Rem take N=0.5 : 68.42074543
Isuzu take N=0.1 : 7.144160511
Isuzu take N=0.2 : 14.45138952
Isuzu take N=0.5 : 37.35148751
Their new pot values are now as follows
Rem's new pot N=0.1 : 105.3056449
Rem's new pot N=0.2 : 110.4169074
Rem's new pot N=0.3 : 124.5844011
Sento Isuzu New Pot N=0.1 : 97.00324833
Sento Isuzu New Pot N=0.2 : 94.20087897
Sento Isuzu New Pot N=0.5 : 86.96006478
Thus ends Round 2
Now in Round 3, Rem meets Kasugano Sora. Kasugano Sora enters into the match with pot values as follows
Kasugano Sora new pot n=0.1 : 101.627352
Kasugano Sora new pot n=0.2 : 103.2188397
Kasugano Sora new pot n=0.5 : 107.7781175
We do the process again
Into N=0.1 pot, Rem contributes 10.531, Isuzu contributes10.163. The total for the pot is 20.69329968
Into N= 0.2 pot Rem contributes 22.083. Isuzu contributes 20.644. The total for the pot is 42.72714943
Into N=0.5 pot Rem contributes 62.292. Isuzu contributes 53.889. The total for the pot is 116.1812593
The match was 1031 to 577 in favor of Rem. Thus Rem takes 64.12% of the pot
---------------------- Work in progress

- IGNITE
- Cherry blossom
- Posts: 978
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- Cards: IGNITE's Cards
Re: Modified Pot value experiment
I went and had a look after reading this, the result is 5/10 tiara winners having #1 or #2 seed for elimination period, it's not really uncommon.maglor wrote:It actually is uncommon for #1 or 2 seed to win the elimination period.
SpoilerShow
2008 Fate Testarossa RS 1st
2009 Katsura Hinagiku RS 11th
2010 Akiyama Mio RS 3rd
2011 Misaka Mikoto RS 2nd
2012 Tachibana Kanade Nova PS1 1st
2013 Gokō Ruri (Kuroneko) Stella PS1 2nd
2014 Itsuka Kotori Nova PS1 6th
2015 Chitanda Eru Stella PS1 3rd
2016 Shana Female CVP 2nd
2017 Katō Megumi Female CVP 7th
2009 Katsura Hinagiku RS 11th
2010 Akiyama Mio RS 3rd
2011 Misaka Mikoto RS 2nd
2012 Tachibana Kanade Nova PS1 1st
2013 Gokō Ruri (Kuroneko) Stella PS1 2nd
2014 Itsuka Kotori Nova PS1 6th
2015 Chitanda Eru Stella PS1 3rd
2016 Shana Female CVP 2nd
2017 Katō Megumi Female CVP 7th

Credit to the pixiv artistsShow
Main Tournament
Toc
Candidates | Background | Artist | Character | Artist |
Levi | 69996956 | 23694308 | ||
Yukinoshita Yukino | 32609135 | 2165451 | ||
Tokisaki Kurumi | 59119039 | 16154485 | ||
Riku Dola | 66714161 | 8024084 | ||
Archer | 69771733 | 16154485 | ||
Okabe Rintarō | 5224903 | 426711 | ||
Tōsaka Rin | 53948782 | 12739740 | ||
Ayanokōji Kiyotaka | 69618131 | 298993 | ||
Shiota Nagisa | 66081447 | 10160 | 54882931 | 40699 |
Takasu Ryūji | 62255571 | 16154485 | ||
Yuigahama Yui | 62077235 | 11270864 | ||
Emiya Kiritsugu | 71262931 | 16154485 | ||
Saber | 78343908 | 8024084 | ||
Tomori Nao | 76325407 | 16601961 | ||
Otonashi Yuzuru | 64069285 | 6451805 | ||
Kyon | 67475915 | 2165451 | ||
Yato | 77409436 | 8024084 | ||
Gilgamesh | 50752503 | 13340232 | ||
Isla | 41809722 | 4906112 | ||
Eren Yeager | 79492489 | 2053329 | ||
Otosaka Yū | 72913218 | 16154485 | ||
Aisaka Taiga | 77315982 | 16823482 | ||
Agatsuma Zenitsu | 62449370 | 24185901 | ||
Ōmae Kumiko | 41809722 | 4906112 | ||
Totsuka Saika | 38285328 | 6559742 | ||
Shiro | 65252747 | 16154485 | ||
Ōji Mochizō | 77315982 | 16823482 | ||
Akemi Homura | 68126514 | 9790122 | ||
Tomioka Giyū | 50226623 | 2165451 | ||
Kaneki Ken | 75961083 | 10160 | ||
Kochō Shinobu | 78343908 | 8024084 | ||
Misaki Mei | 50353806 | 809485 | ||
Kōsaka Reina | 77315982 | 16823482 | ||
Sakata Gintoki | 74214546 | 202175 | ||
Akabane Karma | 64981051 | 16154485 | ||
Fukube Satoshi | 67335608 | 4127417 | ||
Akasaka Ryūnosuke | 56342769 | 211515 | ||
Doma Taihei | 71622362 | 4127417 | ||
Doma Umaru | 57383889 | 373498 | ||
Asada Shino | 67699459 | 2165451 | ||
Jibril | 64035153 | 5031877 |
Candidates | Background | Artist | Character | Artist |
Gokou Ruri | 76127750 | 8024084 | ||
Hikigaya Hachiman | 63417793 | 11270864 | ||
Katou Megumi | 69430358 | 8024084 | ||
Korosensei | 41809722 | 4906112 | ||
Oreki Houtarou | 59225355 | 1511752 | ||
Sora | 74319517 | 8024084 |
- maglor
- ~Fukou da~
- Posts: 8918
- Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 8:57 pm
- Badges:
- Worships: Abriel Nei Debrusc Borl Paryun Lafiel
- Melon Pan: 75
- 2020 Female Favorite: Holo
- 2020 Male Favorite: Natsume Takashi
- 2019 Female Favorite: Akemi Homura
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- 2018 Female Favorite: Chtholly Nota Seniorious
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- Wish: More people being open to alternatives and compromises.
- Cards: maglor's Cards
Re: Modified Pot value experiment
Nice analysis. So, chance of #1 or 2 winning is a coin tossIGNITE wrote:I went and had a look after reading this, the result is 5/10 tiara winners having #1 or #2 seed for elimination period, it's not really uncommon.maglor wrote:It actually is uncommon for #1 or 2 seed to win the elimination period.SpoilerShow2008 Fate Testarossa RS 1st
2009 Katsura Hinagiku RS 11th
2010 Akiyama Mio RS 3rd
2011 Misaka Mikoto RS 2nd
2012 Tachibana Kanade Nova PS1 1st
2013 Gokō Ruri (Kuroneko) Stella PS1 2nd
2014 Itsuka Kotori Nova PS1 6th
2015 Chitanda Eru Stella PS1 3rd
2016 Shana Female CVP 2nd
2017 Katō Megumi Female CVP 7th

- Homura
- [Apprentice Magician]
- Posts: 3115
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- Badges:
- Melon Pan: 55
- 2020 Female Favorite: Shiina Mashiro
- 2020 Male Favorite: Lelouch Lamperouge
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- 2019 Male Favorite: Levi
- 2018 Female Favorite: Makise Kurisu
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- Location: China
Re: Modified Pot value experiment
The time for #4 or #5 seed winning the Tiara lies ahead, possibly in the near future~

- ~Baumkuchen-kun~
- Harem lead
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Re: Modified Pot value experiment
Gaaaah, this feels so weird to look at after all these years on this forum
#GiveMashiroWhatSheDeserves






Re: Modified Pot value experiment
Topaz 1, sorted by FEV% (sorry for the poor formatting)
SpoilerShow
Name FEV% STDV%
Kanna Kamui 66.154% ±5.134%
Shiro 64.937% ±4.81%
Nishimiya Shōko 64.649% ±4.822%
Rem 64.361% ±4.395%
Tōru 63.835% ±4.582%
Yūki Asuna 63.28% ±4.251%
Shiina Mashiro 62.34% ±4.159%
Takanashi Rikka 60.446% ±3.477%
Furukawa Nagisa 53.082% ±1.852%
Isla 52.397% ±1.067%
Saten Ruiko 52.316% ±1.692%
Nibutani Shinka 51.928% ±0.566%
Yuzuriha Inori 51.822% ±1.382%
Shiina Mayuri 51.814% ±0.743%
Kōsaka Reina 51.621% ±2.02%
Miyamizu Mitsuha 51.614% ±0.582%
Kasugano Sora 51.441% ±1.637%
Tobiichi Origami 51.317% ±0.368%
Kuroyukihime 51.298% ±0.463%
Aqua 51.039% ±1.675%
Tomori Nao 50.921% ±1.737%
Aragaki Ayase 50.797% ±0.663%
Kaname Madoka 50.13% ±1.831%
Daidōji Tomoyo 50.039% ±1.022%
Kani Nayuta 49.961% ±1.022%
Ōmae Kumiko 49.87% ±1.831%
Asada Shino 49.203% ±0.663%
Doma Umaru 49.079% ±1.737%
Yamada Elf 48.961% ±1.675%
Kirigaya Suguha (Leafa) 48.702% ±0.463%
Kuriyama Mirai 48.683% ±0.368%
Diamond 48.559% ±1.637%
Hirasawa Yui 48.386% ±0.582%
Yuigahama Yui 48.379% ±2.02%
Tenma Gabriel White 48.186% ±0.743%
Nagato Yuki 48.178% ±1.382%
Minami Kotori 48.072% ±0.566%
C.C. 47.684% ±1.692%
Sawamura Spencer Eriri 47.603% ±1.067%
Nero Claudius 46.918% ±1.852%
Ayano Keiko (Silica) 39.554% ±3.477%
Shirakawa Miyako 37.66% ±4.159%
Nishikino Maki 36.72% ±4.251%
Oshino Shinobu 36.165% ±4.582%
Kirishima Tōka 35.639% ±4.395%
Kayano Kaede 35.351% ±4.822%
Onodera Kosaki 35.063% ±4.81%
Kanzaki H. Aria 33.846% ±5.134%
Kanna Kamui 66.154% ±5.134%
Shiro 64.937% ±4.81%
Nishimiya Shōko 64.649% ±4.822%
Rem 64.361% ±4.395%
Tōru 63.835% ±4.582%
Yūki Asuna 63.28% ±4.251%
Shiina Mashiro 62.34% ±4.159%
Takanashi Rikka 60.446% ±3.477%
Furukawa Nagisa 53.082% ±1.852%
Isla 52.397% ±1.067%
Saten Ruiko 52.316% ±1.692%
Nibutani Shinka 51.928% ±0.566%
Yuzuriha Inori 51.822% ±1.382%
Shiina Mayuri 51.814% ±0.743%
Kōsaka Reina 51.621% ±2.02%
Miyamizu Mitsuha 51.614% ±0.582%
Kasugano Sora 51.441% ±1.637%
Tobiichi Origami 51.317% ±0.368%
Kuroyukihime 51.298% ±0.463%
Aqua 51.039% ±1.675%
Tomori Nao 50.921% ±1.737%
Aragaki Ayase 50.797% ±0.663%
Kaname Madoka 50.13% ±1.831%
Daidōji Tomoyo 50.039% ±1.022%
Kani Nayuta 49.961% ±1.022%
Ōmae Kumiko 49.87% ±1.831%
Asada Shino 49.203% ±0.663%
Doma Umaru 49.079% ±1.737%
Yamada Elf 48.961% ±1.675%
Kirigaya Suguha (Leafa) 48.702% ±0.463%
Kuriyama Mirai 48.683% ±0.368%
Diamond 48.559% ±1.637%
Hirasawa Yui 48.386% ±0.582%
Yuigahama Yui 48.379% ±2.02%
Tenma Gabriel White 48.186% ±0.743%
Nagato Yuki 48.178% ±1.382%
Minami Kotori 48.072% ±0.566%
C.C. 47.684% ±1.692%
Sawamura Spencer Eriri 47.603% ±1.067%
Nero Claudius 46.918% ±1.852%
Ayano Keiko (Silica) 39.554% ±3.477%
Shirakawa Miyako 37.66% ±4.159%
Nishikino Maki 36.72% ±4.251%
Oshino Shinobu 36.165% ±4.582%
Kirishima Tōka 35.639% ±4.395%
Kayano Kaede 35.351% ±4.822%
Onodera Kosaki 35.063% ±4.81%
Kanzaki H. Aria 33.846% ±5.134%
SpoilerShow
Name FEV% STDV%
Hikigaya Hachiman 66.028% ±4.939%
Levi 64.407% ±4.736%
Shiota Nagisa 61.856% ±3.816%
Tachibana Taki 61.303% ±4.206%
Ayanokōji Kiyotaka 60.791% ±3.491%
Okabe Rintarō 60.672% ±3.535%
Emiya Shirō 60.578% ±3.341%
Archer 58.605% ±2.835%
Kanie Seiya 52.077% ±0.877%
Sakamaki Izayoi 52.03% ±1.381%
Uchiha Sasuke 51.956% ±1.38%
Yato 51.824% ±1.448%
Yukihira Sōma 51.535% ±1.108%
Willem Kmetsch 51.461% ±1.2%
Akasaka Ryūnosuke 51.253% ±1.239%
Natsume Takashi 51.082% ±1.814%
Okazaki Tomoya 51.049% ±2.042%
Li Syaoran 50.884% ±0.881%
Isana Yashiro 50.779% ±0.779%
Satō Kazuma 50.6% ±1.301%
Sakamoto 50.564% ±1.086%
Kanzaki Hideri 50.387% ±1.672%
Dazai Osamu 50.288% ±1.132%
Satoshi 50.169% ±1.837%
Suō Mikoto 49.831% ±1.837%
Kōsaka Kyōsuke 49.712% ±1.132%
Amamiya Ren 49.613% ±1.672%
Arima Kōsei 49.436% ±1.086%
Kaneki Ken 49.4% ±1.301%
Amakusa Shirō Tokisada 49.221% ±0.779%
Doma Taihei 49.116% ±0.881%
Natsuki Subaru 48.951% ±2.042%
Midoriya Izuku 48.918% ±1.814%
Tatsumi 48.747% ±1.239%
Itsuka Shidō 48.539% ±1.2%
Kanda Sorata 48.465% ±1.108%
Totsuka Saika 48.176% ±1.448%
Orihara Izaya 48.044% ±1.38%
Son Goku 47.97% ±1.381%
Armin Arlert 47.923% ±0.877%
Leonardo Watch 41.395% ±2.835%
Kasugano Haruka 39.422% ±3.341%
Killua Zoldyck 39.328% ±3.535%
Akatsuki Kojō 39.209% ±3.491%
Sebas Tian 38.697% ±4.206%
Bakugō Katsuki 38.144% ±3.816%
Nanase Haruka 35.593% ±4.736%
Tomoe 33.972% ±4.939%
Hikigaya Hachiman 66.028% ±4.939%
Levi 64.407% ±4.736%
Shiota Nagisa 61.856% ±3.816%
Tachibana Taki 61.303% ±4.206%
Ayanokōji Kiyotaka 60.791% ±3.491%
Okabe Rintarō 60.672% ±3.535%
Emiya Shirō 60.578% ±3.341%
Archer 58.605% ±2.835%
Kanie Seiya 52.077% ±0.877%
Sakamaki Izayoi 52.03% ±1.381%
Uchiha Sasuke 51.956% ±1.38%
Yato 51.824% ±1.448%
Yukihira Sōma 51.535% ±1.108%
Willem Kmetsch 51.461% ±1.2%
Akasaka Ryūnosuke 51.253% ±1.239%
Natsume Takashi 51.082% ±1.814%
Okazaki Tomoya 51.049% ±2.042%
Li Syaoran 50.884% ±0.881%
Isana Yashiro 50.779% ±0.779%
Satō Kazuma 50.6% ±1.301%
Sakamoto 50.564% ±1.086%
Kanzaki Hideri 50.387% ±1.672%
Dazai Osamu 50.288% ±1.132%
Satoshi 50.169% ±1.837%
Suō Mikoto 49.831% ±1.837%
Kōsaka Kyōsuke 49.712% ±1.132%
Amamiya Ren 49.613% ±1.672%
Arima Kōsei 49.436% ±1.086%
Kaneki Ken 49.4% ±1.301%
Amakusa Shirō Tokisada 49.221% ±0.779%
Doma Taihei 49.116% ±0.881%
Natsuki Subaru 48.951% ±2.042%
Midoriya Izuku 48.918% ±1.814%
Tatsumi 48.747% ±1.239%
Itsuka Shidō 48.539% ±1.2%
Kanda Sorata 48.465% ±1.108%
Totsuka Saika 48.176% ±1.448%
Orihara Izaya 48.044% ±1.38%
Son Goku 47.97% ±1.381%
Armin Arlert 47.923% ±0.877%
Leonardo Watch 41.395% ±2.835%
Kasugano Haruka 39.422% ±3.341%
Killua Zoldyck 39.328% ±3.535%
Akatsuki Kojō 39.209% ±3.491%
Sebas Tian 38.697% ±4.206%
Bakugō Katsuki 38.144% ±3.816%
Nanase Haruka 35.593% ±4.736%
Tomoe 33.972% ±4.939%
Re: Modified Pot value experiment
M | 3 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 10 | |
Topaz 1 | 48 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
Topaz 2 | 48 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Topaz 3 | 48 | 16 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Topaz 4 | 50 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Topaz 5 | 48 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Topaz 6 | 48 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Topaz 7 | 48 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Topaz 8 | 48 | 17 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Topaz 9 | 48 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Topaz 10 | 48 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
Amethyst 1 | 32 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Amethyst 2 | 48 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
Amethyst 3 | 48 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Amethyst 4 | 48 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
Amethyst 5 | 48 | 24 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 0 |
Amethyst 6 | 48 | 21 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 1 |
Amethyst 7 | 48 | 22 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 8 | 3 |
Amethyst 8 | 48 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 15 | 7 | 2 |
Sapphire 1 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Sapphire 2 | 48 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 1 |
Sapphire 3 | 48 | 23 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 0 |
Sapphire 4 | 48 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Sapphire 5 | 50 | 23 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 2 |
Sapphire 6 | 48 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
Sapphire 7 | 48 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 0 |
Emerald 1 | 48 | 21 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 2 |
Emerald 2 | 48 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Emerald 3 | 48 | 16 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
Emerald 4 | 48 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 0 |
Emerald 5 | 48 | 21 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 2 |
Ruby 1 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Ruby 2 | 36 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Ruby 3 | 42 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Ruby 4 | 42 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 0 |
Ruby 5 | 42 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
Ruby 6 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Diamond 1 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Diamond 2 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Diamond 3 | 24 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Diamond 4 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Diamond 5 | 24 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Diamond 6 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Elimination 1 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Elimination 2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Elimination 3 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Elimination 4 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Elimination 5 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Elimination 6 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
Elimination 7 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Elimination 8 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
LegendShow
M | number of matches that both of the contestants have participated in more than five matches |
3 | ABS( Z-score ) ≥ 3 ∧ ABS( VF% - FEV% ) ≥ 3% |
5 | ABS( Z-score ) ≥ 5 ∧ ABS( VF% - FEV% ) ≥ 5% |
10 | ABS( Z-score ) ≥ 10 ∧ ABS( VF% - FEV% ) ≥ 10% |
3 | ABS( Z-score ) ≥ 3 ∧ ABS( VF% - FEV% ) ≥ 3% ∧ ( VF% > 50% ∧ FEV% < 50% ∨ VF% < 50% ∧ FEV% > 50% ) |
5 | ABS( Z-score ) ≥ 5 ∧ ABS( VF% - FEV% ) ≥ 5% ∧ ( VF% > 50% ∧ FEV% < 50% ∨ VF% < 50% ∧ FEV% > 50% ) |
10 | ABS( Z-score ) ≥ 10 ∧ ABS( VF% - FEV% ) ≥ 10% ∧ ( VF% > 50% ∧ FEV% < 50% ∨ VF% < 50% ∧ FEV% > 50% ) |
ABS( Z-score ) ≥ 10 ∧ ABS( VF% - FEV% ) ≥ 10%Show
ISML 2018 | Contestant | FEV% | VF% | Opponent | STDV% | Z-score |
Topaz 1 | Tobiichi Origami | 51.32% | 40.98% | Kuriyama Mirai | 0.39% | -26.46 |
Topaz 1 | Nibutani Shinka | 50.11% | 63.20% | Minami Kotori | 0.68% | 19.22 |
Topaz 1 | Kanie Seiya | 51.97% | 62.10% | Armin Arlert | 0.91% | 11.11 |
Topaz 3 | Aragaki Ayase | 52.95% | 42.86% | Ōmae Kumiko | 0.89% | -11.28 |
Topaz 8 | Kitashirakawa Tamako | 53.62% | 37.95% | Sakura Chiyo | 0.45% | -34.88 |
Topaz 9 | Daidōji Tomoyo | 50.35% | 62.38% | Oshino Shinobu | 0.90% | 13.41 |
Amethyst 1 | Edward Elric | 52.47% | 66.38% | Aki Tomoya | 0.68% | 20.58 |
Amethyst 3 | Takanashi Rikka | 58.54% | 74.83% | Ōmae Kumiko | 1.61% | 10.11 |
Amethyst 4 | Li Syaoran | 52.74% | 64.32% | Isana Yashiro | 0.93% | 12.47 |
Amethyst 5 | Makise Kurisu | 57.59% | 69.33% | Saten Ruiko | 0.86% | 13.57 |
Amethyst 6 | Schwi Dola | 58.66% | 37.97% | Shirai Kuroko | 1.68% | -12.35 |
Amethyst 7 | Emilia | 57.99% | 42.45% | Aoyama Nanami | 1.00% | -15.56 |
Amethyst 7 | Tōru | 53.41% | 24.79% | Aisaka Taiga | 1.31% | -21.81 |
Amethyst 7 | Todoroki Shōto | 53.04% | 66.08% | Orihara Izaya | 0.71% | 18.25 |
Amethyst 7 | Kanda Sorata | 50.95% | 35.00% | Midoriya Izuku | 1.28% | -12.51 |
Amethyst 8 | Kōsaka Reina | 50.48% | 35.73% | Doma Umaru | 0.98% | -15.02 |
Amethyst 8 | Kanbara Akihito | 55.42% | 44.47% | Dazai Osamu | 0.96% | -11.36 |
Sapphire 2 | Yatogami Tōka | 50.24% | 38.05% | Nakano Azusa | 0.78% | -15.56 |
Sapphire 3 | Kinomoto Sakura | 52.30% | 66.78% | Sawamura Spencer Eriri | 0.94% | 15.33 |
Sapphire 3 | Togashi Yūta | 54.23% | 67.74% | Kanda Sorata | 1.11% | 12.21 |
Sapphire 4 | Takanashi Rikka | 53.39% | 68.73% | Tobiichi Origami | 1.49% | 10.29 |
Sapphire 5 | Willem Kmetsch | 55.46% | 37.56% | Totsuka Saika | 1.66% | -10.78 |
Sapphire 5 | Natsume Takashi | 57.54% | 40.40% | Monkey D. Luffy | 1.53% | -11.19 |
Sapphire 7 | Tokisaki Kurumi | 51.83% | 65.82% | Illyasviel von Einzbern | 0.90% | 15.54 |
Emerald 1 | Makise Kurisu | 51.36% | 34.64% | Miyazono Kaori | 1.29% | -12.94 |
Emerald 1 | Tōru | 51.35% | 36.10% | Isla | 1.18% | -12.93 |
Emerald 1 | Willem Kmetsch | 51.03% | 65.72% | Doma Taihei | 0.47% | 30.97 |
Emerald 5 | Miyazono Kaori | 50.45% | 35.16% | Furukawa Nagisa | 0.83% | -18.36 |
Emerald 5 | Ishida Shōya | 53.63% | 35.42% | Lancer | 1.05% | -17.37 |
Emerald 5 | Riku Dola | 52.58% | 66.93% | Emiya Shirō | 0.73% | 19.67 |
Emerald 5 | Okabe Rintarō | 50.88% | 65.40% | Ayanokōji Kiyotaka | 0.97% | 14.98 |
Diamond 3 | Levi | 56.96% | 76.80% | Okazaki Tomoya | 0.89% | 22.20 |
Diamond 6 | Schwi Dola | 55.44% | 69.14% | Daidōji Tomoyo | 1.25% | 10.92 |
ABS( VF% - FEV% ) ≥ 20%Show
ISML 2018 | Contestant | FEV% | VF% | Opponent | STDV% | Z-score |
Amethyst 6 | Nishimiya Shōko | 54.99% | 75.50% | Furukawa Nagisa | 3.25% | 6.32 |
Amethyst 6 | Schwi Dola | 58.66% | 37.97% | Shirai Kuroko | 1.68% | -12.35 |
Amethyst 6 | Nagato Yuki | 59.35% | 36.48% | Shiina Mayuri | 3.17% | -7.22 |
Amethyst 7 | Tōru | 53.41% | 24.79% | Aisaka Taiga | 1.31% | -21.81 |
Amethyst 7 | Nishimiya Shōko | 60.00% | 38.93% | Izumi Sagiri | 3.77% | -5.59 |
Amethyst 8 | Shiina Mashiro | 57.77% | 33.36% | Haibara Ai | 3.14% | -7.78 |
Amethyst 8 | Takanashi Rikka | 54.64% | 32.09% | Saber | 2.37% | -9.51 |
Amethyst 8 | Illyasviel von Einzbern | 50.15% | 25.42% | Chtholly Nota Seniorious | 2.87% | -8.60 |
Sapphire 3 | Yūki Asuna | 61.51% | 84.55% | Jibril | 3.16% | 7.30 |
Sapphire 5 | Rem | 56.10% | 77.38% | Izumi Sagiri | 3.14% | 6.78 |
Sapphire 7 | Yuzuriha Inori | 52.07% | 29.23% | Kōsaka Reina | 2.70% | -8.46 |
Elimination 4 | Kamijō Tōma | 51.13% | 29.53% | Archer | 2.18% | -9.92 |
Elimination 6 | Yūki Asuna | 55.48% | 32.75% | Shiina Mashiro | 3.76% | -6.04 |
N | P10 | P25 | P50 | P75 | P90 | AVG | W% |
0.1 , 0.2 , 0.3 | 0.61% | 1.56% | 3.65% | 6.80% | 11.30% | 4.89% | 77.08% |
0.1 , 0.2 , 0.4 | 0.59% | 1.57% | 3.64% | 6.75% | 11.11% | 4.84% | 76.92% |
0.1 , 0.2 , 0.5 | 0.54% | 1.54% | 3.62% | 6.76% | 11.01% | 4.81% | 77.14% |
0.1 , 0.2 , 0.6 | 0.57% | 1.52% | 3.64% | 6.75% | 10.94% | 4.81% | 77.57% |
0.1 , 0.2 , 0.7 | 0.60% | 1.49% | 3.69% | 6.69% | 11.02% | 4.82% | 77.08% |
0.1 , 0.2 , 0.8 | 0.58% | 1.52% | 3.64% | 6.65% | 11.03% | 4.83% | 76.98% |
0.1 , 0.2 , 0.9 | 0.63% | 1.54% | 3.71% | 6.71% | 11.08% | 4.86% | 76.87% |
0.1 , 0.2 , 1.0 | 0.64% | 1.59% | 3.73% | 6.81% | 11.26% | 4.91% | 76.44% |
0.1 , 0.3 , 0.4 | 0.59% | 1.52% | 3.55% | 6.72% | 11.06% | 4.79% | 77.19% |
0.1 , 0.3 , 0.5 | 0.58% | 1.50% | 3.55% | 6.58% | 10.99% | 4.77% | 77.25% |
0.1 , 0.3 , 0.6 | 0.58% | 1.50% | 3.56% | 6.59% | 11.04% | 4.78% | 77.35% |
0.1 , 0.3 , 0.7 | 0.56% | 1.50% | 3.59% | 6.58% | 11.05% | 4.79% | 77.14% |
0.1 , 0.3 , 0.8 | 0.56% | 1.50% | 3.57% | 6.59% | 11.17% | 4.81% | 77.03% |
0.1 , 0.3 , 0.9 | 0.57% | 1.55% | 3.65% | 6.70% | 11.21% | 4.84% | 76.92% |
0.1 , 0.3 , 1.0 | 0.60% | 1.59% | 3.71% | 6.76% | 11.14% | 4.88% | 76.39% |
0.1 , 0.4 , 0.5 | 0.55% | 1.48% | 3.54% | 6.58% | 10.94% | 4.76% | 77.25% |
0.1 , 0.4 , 0.6 | 0.55% | 1.49% | 3.52% | 6.54% | 10.98% | 4.77% | 77.08% |
0.1 , 0.4 , 0.7 | 0.55% | 1.51% | 3.56% | 6.56% | 11.04% | 4.79% | 76.82% |
0.1 , 0.4 , 0.8 | 0.55% | 1.54% | 3.60% | 6.60% | 11.01% | 4.82% | 76.92% |
0.1 , 0.4 , 0.9 | 0.56% | 1.57% | 3.64% | 6.72% | 11.11% | 4.85% | 76.44% |
0.1 , 0.4 , 1.0 | 0.59% | 1.56% | 3.73% | 6.79% | 11.18% | 4.90% | 76.49% |
0.1 , 0.5 , 0.6 | 0.54% | 1.50% | 3.55% | 6.56% | 10.90% | 4.79% | 76.82% |
0.1 , 0.5 , 0.7 | 0.55% | 1.55% | 3.63% | 6.60% | 11.03% | 4.81% | 76.87% |
0.1 , 0.5 , 0.8 | 0.57% | 1.54% | 3.68% | 6.65% | 11.09% | 4.85% | 76.33% |
0.1 , 0.5 , 0.9 | 0.60% | 1.55% | 3.71% | 6.74% | 11.09% | 4.89% | 76.17% |
0.1 , 0.5 , 1.0 | 0.59% | 1.56% | 3.77% | 6.80% | 11.09% | 4.94% | 76.28% |
0.1 , 0.6 , 0.7 | 0.59% | 1.53% | 3.66% | 6.67% | 11.03% | 4.85% | 76.39% |
0.1 , 0.6 , 0.8 | 0.61% | 1.57% | 3.73% | 6.74% | 11.05% | 4.89% | 76.39% |
0.1 , 0.6 , 0.9 | 0.60% | 1.59% | 3.78% | 6.78% | 11.08% | 4.94% | 76.06% |
0.1 , 0.6 , 1.0 | 0.61% | 1.61% | 3.82% | 6.89% | 11.18% | 4.99% | 76.01% |
0.1 , 0.7 , 0.8 | 0.61% | 1.60% | 3.79% | 6.77% | 11.12% | 4.94% | 75.95% |
0.1 , 0.7 , 0.9 | 0.59% | 1.60% | 3.83% | 6.83% | 11.13% | 4.99% | 75.90% |
0.1 , 0.7 , 1.0 | 0.60% | 1.63% | 3.89% | 6.98% | 11.23% | 5.05% | 75.63% |
0.1 , 0.8 , 0.9 | 0.60% | 1.65% | 3.88% | 6.96% | 11.30% | 5.05% | 75.90% |
0.1 , 0.8 , 1.0 | 0.63% | 1.68% | 3.96% | 7.07% | 11.34% | 5.12% | 75.42% |
0.1 , 0.9 , 1.0 | 0.63% | 1.77% | 4.08% | 7.13% | 11.47% | 5.19% | 74.88% |
0.2 , 0.3 , 0.4 | 0.58% | 1.51% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 10.92% | 4.77% | 77.08% |
0.2 , 0.3 , 0.5 | 0.58% | 1.48% | 3.56% | 6.60% | 10.94% | 4.77% | 76.98% |
0.2 , 0.3 , 0.6 | 0.57% | 1.47% | 3.58% | 6.50% | 10.99% | 4.77% | 77.25% |
0.2 , 0.3 , 0.7 | 0.58% | 1.50% | 3.57% | 6.52% | 11.06% | 4.79% | 76.87% |
0.2 , 0.3 , 0.8 | 0.55% | 1.52% | 3.59% | 6.53% | 11.18% | 4.81% | 76.92% |
0.2 , 0.3 , 0.9 | 0.54% | 1.54% | 3.64% | 6.56% | 11.17% | 4.84% | 77.19% |
0.2 , 0.3 , 1.0 | 0.55% | 1.59% | 3.71% | 6.66% | 11.17% | 4.88% | 77.14% |
0.2 , 0.4 , 0.5 | 0.58% | 1.50% | 3.56% | 6.57% | 11.00% | 4.78% | 77.08% |
0.2 , 0.4 , 0.6 | 0.59% | 1.50% | 3.57% | 6.57% | 11.07% | 4.79% | 77.14% |
0.2 , 0.4 , 0.7 | 0.64% | 1.52% | 3.59% | 6.58% | 11.09% | 4.82% | 76.92% |
0.2 , 0.4 , 0.8 | 0.61% | 1.54% | 3.61% | 6.66% | 11.11% | 4.85% | 76.82% |
0.2 , 0.4 , 0.9 | 0.62% | 1.57% | 3.67% | 6.77% | 11.15% | 4.88% | 76.76% |
0.2 , 0.4 , 1.0 | 0.62% | 1.60% | 3.73% | 6.81% | 11.15% | 4.92% | 76.39% |
0.2 , 0.5 , 0.6 | 0.64% | 1.54% | 3.60% | 6.60% | 11.08% | 4.82% | 76.60% |
0.2 , 0.5 , 0.7 | 0.63% | 1.54% | 3.64% | 6.67% | 11.18% | 4.85% | 76.60% |
0.2 , 0.5 , 0.8 | 0.66% | 1.56% | 3.66% | 6.80% | 11.21% | 4.89% | 76.60% |
0.2 , 0.5 , 0.9 | 0.64% | 1.57% | 3.71% | 6.83% | 11.20% | 4.93% | 76.28% |
0.2 , 0.5 , 1.0 | 0.61% | 1.60% | 3.82% | 6.92% | 11.23% | 4.97% | 76.33% |
0.2 , 0.6 , 0.7 | 0.65% | 1.55% | 3.67% | 6.81% | 11.22% | 4.89% | 76.44% |
0.2 , 0.6 , 0.8 | 0.65% | 1.58% | 3.71% | 6.85% | 11.24% | 4.94% | 76.39% |
0.2 , 0.6 , 0.9 | 0.63% | 1.61% | 3.79% | 6.95% | 11.25% | 4.98% | 76.12% |
0.2 , 0.6 , 1.0 | 0.61% | 1.63% | 3.88% | 7.01% | 11.32% | 5.03% | 76.17% |
0.2 , 0.7 , 0.8 | 0.68% | 1.60% | 3.83% | 6.96% | 11.25% | 4.99% | 76.06% |
0.2 , 0.7 , 0.9 | 0.65% | 1.63% | 3.91% | 7.03% | 11.33% | 5.03% | 76.01% |
0.2 , 0.7 , 1.0 | 0.64% | 1.67% | 3.92% | 7.05% | 11.34% | 5.09% | 75.90% |
0.2 , 0.8 , 0.9 | 0.63% | 1.68% | 3.92% | 7.08% | 11.40% | 5.10% | 76.01% |
0.2 , 0.8 , 1.0 | 0.68% | 1.72% | 3.98% | 7.19% | 11.41% | 5.16% | 75.63% |
0.2 , 0.9 , 1.0 | 0.67% | 1.80% | 4.09% | 7.26% | 11.46% | 5.23% | 75.09% |
0.3 , 0.4 , 0.5 | 0.63% | 1.56% | 3.64% | 6.67% | 11.08% | 4.82% | 76.82% |
0.3 , 0.4 , 0.6 | 0.65% | 1.57% | 3.63% | 6.68% | 11.12% | 4.84% | 76.44% |
0.3 , 0.4 , 0.7 | 0.62% | 1.57% | 3.64% | 6.73% | 11.24% | 4.87% | 76.44% |
0.3 , 0.4 , 0.8 | 0.63% | 1.58% | 3.66% | 6.83% | 11.27% | 4.90% | 76.44% |
0.3 , 0.4 , 0.9 | 0.62% | 1.59% | 3.70% | 6.89% | 11.29% | 4.93% | 76.44% |
0.3 , 0.4 , 1.0 | 0.62% | 1.59% | 3.76% | 6.97% | 11.29% | 4.97% | 75.95% |
0.3 , 0.5 , 0.6 | 0.61% | 1.57% | 3.66% | 6.74% | 11.27% | 4.88% | 76.60% |
0.3 , 0.5 , 0.7 | 0.65% | 1.60% | 3.65% | 6.83% | 11.30% | 4.91% | 76.39% |
0.3 , 0.5 , 0.8 | 0.64% | 1.61% | 3.72% | 6.94% | 11.33% | 4.95% | 76.28% |
0.3 , 0.5 , 0.9 | 0.63% | 1.61% | 3.77% | 6.99% | 11.30% | 4.99% | 75.95% |
0.3 , 0.5 , 1.0 | 0.61% | 1.64% | 3.83% | 7.11% | 11.31% | 5.03% | 76.01% |
0.3 , 0.6 , 0.7 | 0.62% | 1.62% | 3.73% | 6.92% | 11.33% | 4.96% | 76.22% |
0.3 , 0.6 , 0.8 | 0.63% | 1.61% | 3.83% | 7.03% | 11.34% | 5.00% | 75.95% |
0.3 , 0.6 , 0.9 | 0.65% | 1.61% | 3.86% | 7.10% | 11.30% | 5.05% | 76.17% |
0.3 , 0.6 , 1.0 | 0.64% | 1.67% | 3.91% | 7.18% | 11.42% | 5.10% | 76.28% |
0.3 , 0.7 , 0.8 | 0.64% | 1.65% | 3.87% | 7.10% | 11.33% | 5.06% | 76.28% |
0.3 , 0.7 , 0.9 | 0.62% | 1.69% | 3.94% | 7.13% | 11.40% | 5.11% | 75.95% |
0.3 , 0.7 , 1.0 | 0.63% | 1.71% | 3.98% | 7.23% | 11.48% | 5.17% | 76.22% |
0.3 , 0.8 , 0.9 | 0.62% | 1.73% | 4.01% | 7.25% | 11.44% | 5.17% | 76.01% |
0.3 , 0.8 , 1.0 | 0.65% | 1.78% | 4.02% | 7.34% | 11.53% | 5.24% | 75.79% |
0.3 , 0.9 , 1.0 | 0.65% | 1.85% | 4.10% | 7.37% | 11.60% | 5.31% | 75.31% |
0.4 , 0.5 , 0.6 | 0.64% | 1.63% | 3.69% | 6.85% | 11.40% | 4.94% | 76.28% |
0.4 , 0.5 , 0.7 | 0.61% | 1.62% | 3.72% | 6.96% | 11.33% | 4.98% | 76.17% |
0.4 , 0.5 , 0.8 | 0.63% | 1.62% | 3.78% | 7.06% | 11.38% | 5.02% | 75.79% |
0.4 , 0.5 , 0.9 | 0.61% | 1.66% | 3.83% | 7.16% | 11.36% | 5.06% | 75.95% |
0.4 , 0.5 , 1.0 | 0.60% | 1.67% | 3.89% | 7.20% | 11.39% | 5.11% | 76.01% |
0.4 , 0.6 , 0.7 | 0.62% | 1.64% | 3.77% | 7.10% | 11.56% | 5.03% | 75.69% |
0.4 , 0.6 , 0.8 | 0.63% | 1.67% | 3.81% | 7.18% | 11.42% | 5.08% | 76.12% |
0.4 , 0.6 , 0.9 | 0.60% | 1.69% | 3.91% | 7.25% | 11.42% | 5.13% | 76.12% |
0.4 , 0.6 , 1.0 | 0.60% | 1.73% | 3.95% | 7.27% | 11.49% | 5.18% | 75.90% |
0.4 , 0.7 , 0.8 | 0.62% | 1.71% | 3.91% | 7.23% | 11.40% | 5.14% | 76.17% |
0.4 , 0.7 , 0.9 | 0.58% | 1.75% | 4.00% | 7.29% | 11.47% | 5.19% | 75.58% |
0.4 , 0.7 , 1.0 | 0.57% | 1.79% | 4.03% | 7.36% | 11.60% | 5.25% | 75.52% |
0.4 , 0.8 , 0.9 | 0.60% | 1.79% | 4.06% | 7.35% | 11.61% | 5.26% | 75.36% |
0.4 , 0.8 , 1.0 | 0.64% | 1.87% | 4.08% | 7.43% | 11.75% | 5.33% | 75.31% |
0.4 , 0.9 , 1.0 | 0.69% | 1.89% | 4.14% | 7.49% | 11.84% | 5.40% | 75.15% |
0.5 , 0.6 , 0.7 | 0.63% | 1.72% | 3.82% | 7.15% | 11.53% | 5.11% | 76.01% |
0.5 , 0.6 , 0.8 | 0.65% | 1.72% | 3.89% | 7.24% | 11.43% | 5.16% | 76.12% |
0.5 , 0.6 , 0.9 | 0.61% | 1.75% | 3.99% | 7.34% | 11.51% | 5.21% | 75.74% |
0.5 , 0.6 , 1.0 | 0.61% | 1.78% | 4.05% | 7.33% | 11.60% | 5.27% | 75.42% |
0.5 , 0.7 , 0.8 | 0.66% | 1.76% | 3.97% | 7.34% | 11.60% | 5.22% | 75.63% |
0.5 , 0.7 , 0.9 | 0.60% | 1.80% | 4.04% | 7.33% | 11.64% | 5.28% | 75.31% |
0.5 , 0.7 , 1.0 | 0.62% | 1.87% | 4.14% | 7.41% | 11.74% | 5.34% | 75.09% |
0.5 , 0.8 , 0.9 | 0.62% | 1.89% | 4.12% | 7.41% | 11.75% | 5.35% | 74.99% |
0.5 , 0.8 , 1.0 | 0.65% | 1.93% | 4.15% | 7.51% | 11.84% | 5.42% | 74.88% |
0.5 , 0.9 , 1.0 | 0.69% | 1.98% | 4.21% | 7.60% | 12.04% | 5.50% | 74.61% |
0.6 , 0.7 , 0.8 | 0.67% | 1.79% | 4.03% | 7.38% | 11.66% | 5.31% | 75.31% |
0.6 , 0.7 , 0.9 | 0.62% | 1.88% | 4.14% | 7.41% | 11.77% | 5.37% | 75.04% |
0.6 , 0.7 , 1.0 | 0.63% | 1.93% | 4.17% | 7.48% | 11.87% | 5.43% | 74.88% |
0.6 , 0.8 , 0.9 | 0.67% | 1.94% | 4.20% | 7.50% | 11.91% | 5.45% | 74.99% |
0.6 , 0.8 , 1.0 | 0.71% | 1.95% | 4.24% | 7.56% | 12.04% | 5.52% | 74.72% |
0.6 , 0.9 , 1.0 | 0.73% | 2.01% | 4.29% | 7.70% | 12.17% | 5.60% | 73.80% |
0.7 , 0.8 , 0.9 | 0.74% | 1.99% | 4.26% | 7.60% | 12.05% | 5.53% | 74.61% |
0.7 , 0.8 , 1.0 | 0.75% | 2.01% | 4.31% | 7.74% | 12.11% | 5.61% | 73.96% |
0.7 , 0.9 , 1.0 | 0.79% | 2.04% | 4.38% | 7.89% | 12.28% | 5.69% | 73.43% |
0.8 , 0.9 , 1.0 | 0.81% | 2.10% | 4.46% | 7.96% | 12.54% | 5.79% | 72.94% |
LegendShow
N | variables for calculating pot values |
P10 | the 10th percentile of ABS( VF% - FEV% ) |
P25 | the 25th percentile of ABS( VF% - FEV% ) |
P50 | the 50th percentile of ABS( VF% - FEV% ) |
P75 | the 75th percentile of ABS( VF% - FEV% ) |
P90 | the 90th percentile of ABS( VF% - FEV% ) |
AVG | the average of ABS( VF% - FEV% ) |
W% | winning percentage of the expected winners |
M | W | W% | M | W | W% | ||
2018 | 1859 | 1434 | 77.14% | 2017 | 1791 | 1613 | 90.06% |
Female | 921 | 703 | 76.33% | Female | 890 | 808 | 90.79% |
Male | 921 | 723 | 78.50% | Male | 890 | 797 | 89.55% |
Seasonal | 17 | 8 | 47.06% | Seasonal | 11 | 8 | 72.73% |
Topaz | 480 | 423 | 88.13% | Topaz | 480 | 450 | 93.75% |
Female | 240 | 209 | 87.08% | Female | 240 | 224 | 93.33% |
Male | 240 | 214 | 89.17% | Male | 240 | 226 | 94.17% |
Amethyst | 368 | 286 | 77.72% | Amethyst | 368 | 342 | 92.93% |
Female | 184 | 138 | 75.00% | Female | 184 | 172 | 93.48% |
Male | 184 | 148 | 80.43% | Male | 184 | 170 | 92.39% |
Sapphire | 300 | 227 | 75.67% | Sapphire | 300 | 274 | 91.33% |
Female | 150 | 114 | 76.00% | Female | 150 | 141 | 94.00% |
Male | 150 | 113 | 75.33% | Male | 150 | 133 | 88.67% |
Emerald | 240 | 175 | 72.92% | Emerald | 240 | 216 | 90.00% |
Female | 120 | 87 | 72.50% | Female | 120 | 111 | 92.50% |
Male | 120 | 88 | 73.33% | Male | 120 | 105 | 87.50% |
Ruby | 204 | 142 | 69.61% | Ruby | 180 | 158 | 87.78% |
Female | 102 | 70 | 68.63% | Female | 90 | 76 | 84.44% |
Male | 102 | 72 | 70.59% | Male | 90 | 82 | 91.11% |
Diamond | 132 | 98 | 74.24% | Diamond | 120 | 98 | 81.67% |
Female | 66 | 47 | 71.21% | Female | 60 | 52 | 86.67% |
Male | 66 | 51 | 77.27% | Male | 60 | 46 | 76.67% |
Elimination | 118 | 75 | 63.56% | Elimination | 92 | 67 | 72.83% |
Female | 59 | 38 | 64.41% | Female | 46 | 32 | 69.57% |
Male | 59 | 37 | 62.71% | Male | 46 | 35 | 76.09% |
50% ≤ FEV% < 51% | 261 | 144 | 55.17% | 50% ≤ FEV% < 51% | 170 | 105 | 61.76% |
51% ≤ FEV% < 52% | 230 | 136 | 59.13% | 51% ≤ FEV% < 52% | 166 | 119 | 71.69% |
52% ≤ FEV% < 53% | 222 | 151 | 68.02% | 52% ≤ FEV% < 53% | 192 | 164 | 85.42% |
53% ≤ FEV% < 54% | 193 | 144 | 74.61% | 53% ≤ FEV% < 54% | 198 | 181 | 91.41% |
54% ≤ FEV% < 55% | 191 | 162 | 84.82% | 54% ≤ FEV% < 55% | 179 | 173 | 96.65% |
55% ≤ FEV% < 56% | 156 | 136 | 87.18% | 55% ≤ FEV% < 56% | 193 | 181 | 93.78% |
56% ≤ FEV% < 57% | 100 | 91 | 91.00% | 56% ≤ FEV% < 57% | 154 | 152 | 98.70% |
57% ≤ FEV% < 58% | 117 | 102 | 87.18% | 57% ≤ FEV% < 58% | 112 | 112 | 100.00% |
58% ≤ FEV% < 59% | 98 | 91 | 92.86% | 58% ≤ FEV% < 59% | 114 | 114 | 100.00% |
59% ≤ FEV% < 60% | 84 | 74 | 88.10% | 59% ≤ FEV% < 60% | 86 | 86 | 100.00% |
60% ≤ FEV% < 61% | 70 | 68 | 97.14% | 60% ≤ FEV% < 61% | 85 | 85 | 100.00% |
61% ≤ FEV% < 62% | 48 | 46 | 95.83% | 61% ≤ FEV% < 62% | 66 | 67 | 98.51% |
62% ≤ FEV% | 89 | 89 | 100.00% | 62% ≤ FEV% | 75 | 75 | 100.00% |
50% ≤ FEV% < 51%Show
2018 | M | W | W% | 2017 | M | W | W% |
50.0% ≤ FEV% < 50.2% | 55 | 26 | 47.27% | 50.0% ≤ FEV% < 50.2% | 21 | 40 | 52.50% |
50.2% ≤ FEV% < 50.4% | 52 | 27 | 51.92% | 50.2% ≤ FEV% < 50.4% | 25 | 42 | 59.52% |
50.4% ≤ FEV% < 50.6% | 44 | 28 | 63.64% | 50.4% ≤ FEV% < 50.6% | 18 | 31 | 58.06% |
50.6% ≤ FEV% < 50.8% | 49 | 25 | 51.02% | 50.6% ≤ FEV% < 50.8% | 21 | 30 | 70.00% |
50.8% ≤ FEV% < 51.0% | 61 | 38 | 62.30% | 50.8% ≤ FEV% < 51.0% | 20 | 27 | 74.07% |
Unexpected matchesShow
(top ten FEV% with the premise that the expected winner lost the match)
FEV% | Contestant | VF | VF | Opponent | Z-score | |
ISML 2018 | ||||||
Sapphire 2 | 61.61% | Tokisaki Kurumi | 2902 | 3865 | Sakura Chiyo | 7.7 |
Sapphire 4 | 61.05% | Chtholly Nota Seniorious | 2452 | 2552 | Matō Sakura | 3.1 |
Amethyst 5 | 60.57% | Yūki Asuna | 4136 | 4623 | Nagato Yuki | 3.1 |
Sapphire 5 | 60.14% | Kinomoto Sakura | 4109 | 5862 | Jibril | 8.0 |
Amethyst 7 | 60.00% | Nishimiya Shōko | 4561 | 7156 | Izumi Sagiri | 5.6 |
Sapphire 4 | 59.97% | Rem | 2561 | 2955 | Nagato Yuki | 3.4 |
Amethyst 4 | 59.94% | Tōru | 3152 | 3279 | Jibril | 5.3 |
Amethyst 6 | 59.88% | Yukinoshita Yukino | 5772 | 6320 | Kitashirakawa Tamako | 4.0 |
Emerald 2 | 59.83% | Archer | 10198 | 10337 | Kanda Sorata | 6.7 |
Amethyst 4 | 59.73% | Yukihira Sōma | 2534 | 2620 | Hei | 4.8 |
ISML 2017 | ||||||
Emerald 1 | 61.23% | Saitama | 964 | 1336 | Natsume Takashi | 4.3 |
Sapphire 10 | 56.44% | Shiba Tatsuya | 1301 | 1330 | Yagami Light | 4.8 |
Elimination 2 | 56.22% | Saitama | 1550 | 1782 | Gilgamesh | 3.0 |
Sapphire 9 | 55.84% | Katsuragi Keima | 894 | 979 | Dazai Osamu | 5.0 |
Amethyst 11 | 55.77% | Isla | 1074 | 1170 | Beatrice | 7.9 |
Ruby 6 | 55.76% | Yūki Asuna | 1939 | 2640 | Saber | 4.7 |
Sapphire 5 | 55.75% | Satomi Rentarō | 798 | 932 | Dazai Osamu | 10.3 |
Diamond 2 | 55.66% | Saber | 1651 | 1683 | Kafū Chino | 2.1 |
Topaz 15 | 55.63% | Shiro | 1475 | 1667 | Sakura Chiyo | 2.5 |
Amethyst 10 | 55.48% | Kyon | 829 | 1117 | Edogawa Conan | 7.1 |
RematchesShow
Topaz 6 | Ainz Ooal Gown | 3187 | Kyon | 2619 | |
Diamond 3 | Ainz Ooal Gown | 13260 | Kyon | 12041 | |
Aquamarine 11 | Ainz Ooal Gown | 4137 | Willem Kmetsch | 3709 | |
Diamond 4 | Ainz Ooal Gown | 13976 | Willem Kmetsch | 14598 | |
Aquamarine 13 | Aisaka Taiga | 5083 | Illyasviel von Einzbern | 5376 | |
Ruby 5 | Aisaka Taiga | 15056 | Illyasviel von Einzbern | 16419 | |
Ruby 1 | Aisaka Taiga | 9515 | Kitashirakawa Tamako | 9792 | |
Elimination 3 | Aisaka Taiga | 18136 | Kitashirakawa Tamako | 15909 | |
Amethyst 2 | Akabane Karma | 2989 | Natsuki Subaru | 2378 | |
Diamond 5 | Akabane Karma | 13642 | Natsuki Subaru | 13726 | |
Emerald 4 | Akabane Karma | 9064 | Riku Dola | 9740 | |
Diamond 4 | Akabane Karma | 12369 | Riku Dola | 14839 | |
Topaz 10 | Akabane Karma | 4914 | Saitama | 4897 | |
Diamond 1 | Akabane Karma | 12144 | Saitama | 12439 | |
Amethyst 8 | Akabane Karma | 2536 | Shiota Nagisa | 4172 | |
Diamond 2 | Akabane Karma | 11656 | Shiota Nagisa | 13523 | |
Amethyst 7 | Aoyama Nanami | 6383 | Emilia | 4709 | |
Emerald 2 | Aoyama Nanami | 10976 | Emilia | 9129 | |
Ruby 3 | Aoyama Nanami | 12825 | Takanashi Rikka | 17536 | |
Elimination 8 | Aoyama Nanami | 20986 | Takanashi Rikka | 26978 | |
Sapphire 5 | Aoyama Nanami | 3698 | Tōsaka Rin | 5543 | |
Elimination 6 | Aoyama Nanami | 21923 | Tōsaka Rin | 20452 | |
Topaz 6 | Aoyama Nanami | 2456 | Yukinoshita Yukino | 5029 | |
Ruby 1 | Aoyama Nanami | 8765 | Yukinoshita Yukino | 11483 | |
Emerald 3 | Archer | 10028 | Astolfo | 8330 | |
Diamond 3 | Archer | 13169 | Astolfo | 11724 | |
Diamond 5 | Archer | 8738 | Hikigaya Hachiman | 19772 | |
Elimination 8 | Archer | 15990 | Hikigaya Hachiman | 35856 | |
Diamond 1 | Astolfo | 10098 | Hikigaya Hachiman | 16255 | |
Elimination 1 | Astolfo | 9928 | Hikigaya Hachiman | 25960 | |
Amethyst 1 | Astolfo | 1759 | Ishida Shōya | 2791 | |
Diamond 5 | Astolfo | 13702 | Ishida Shōya | 13552 | |
Sapphire 2 | Astolfo | 2387 | Kamijō Tōma | 2943 | |
Elimination 8 | Astolfo | 21382 | Kamijō Tōma | 23057 | |
Topaz 10 | Astolfo | 2755 | Riku Dola | 6125 | |
Ruby 2 | Astolfo | 11094 | Riku Dola | 7785 | |
Aquamarine 7 | Astolfo | 3310 | Yato | 3361 | |
Ruby 1 | Astolfo | 9390 | Yato | 8445 | |
Sapphire 6 | Chtholly Nota Seniorious | 9220 | Furukawa Nagisa | 4660 | |
Diamond 3 | Chtholly Nota Seniorious | 9595 | Furukawa Nagisa | 8594 | |
Amethyst 8 | Chtholly Nota Seniorious | 8119 | Illyasviel von Einzbern | 2768 | |
Elimination 2 | Chtholly Nota Seniorious | 17285 | Illyasviel von Einzbern | 15816 | |
Aquamarine 12 | Chtholly Nota Seniorious | 5391 | Megumin | 2391 | |
Ruby 2 | Chtholly Nota Seniorious | 10637 | Megumin | 9980 | |
Ruby 5 | Chtholly Nota Seniorious | 18604 | Shiina Mashiro | 15230 | |
Elimination 8 | Chtholly Nota Seniorious | 23193 | Shiina Mashiro | 22910 | |
Sapphire 7 | Chtholly Nota Seniorious | 7957 | Takanashi Rikka | 5516 | |
Elimination 7 | Chtholly Nota Seniorious | 22804 | Takanashi Rikka | 20650 | |
Emerald 5 | Daidōji Tomoyo | 10731 | Tomori Nao | 11513 | |
Elimination 4 | Daidōji Tomoyo | 15309 | Tomori Nao | 16201 | |
Emerald 5 | Edward Elric | 9667 | Kaneki Ken | 10855 | |
Elimination 3 | Edward Elric | 16457 | Kaneki Ken | 15665 | |
Ruby 4 | Emilia | 22292 | Nibutani Shinka | 19111 | |
Elimination 3 | Emilia | 20254 | Nibutani Shinka | 12780 | |
Emerald 4 | Emilia | 8131 | Nishimiya Shōko | 10737 | |
Diamond 4 | Emilia | 16983 | Nishimiya Shōko | 17276 | |
Emerald 1 | Emilia | 10406 | Saber | 8158 | |
Elimination 7 | Emilia | 22341 | Saber | 21397 | |
Ruby 5 | Emilia | 17384 | Shiro | 15000 | |
Elimination 8 | Emilia | 28693 | Shiro | 17376 | |
Emerald 3 | Emilia | 8425 | Yuigahama Yui | 12665 | |
Diamond 5 | Emilia | 15765 | Yuigahama Yui | 15006 | |
Topaz 10 | Emiya Kiritsugu | 3763 | Ishida Shōya | 4740 | |
Elimination 6 | Emiya Kiritsugu | 21018 | Ishida Shōya | 19250 | |
Amethyst 8 | Emiya Kiritsugu | 3773 | Kamijō Tōma | 3675 | |
Diamond 5 | Emiya Kiritsugu | 13738 | Kamijō Tōma | 13666 | |
Emerald 1 | Emiya Kiritsugu | 8910 | Saitama | 9938 | |
Elimination 5 | Emiya Kiritsugu | 15722 | Saitama | 16029 | |
Ruby 5 | Emiya Kiritsugu | 15711 | Yato | 15197 | |
Elimination 2 | Emiya Kiritsugu | 14559 | Yato | 14270 | |
Diamond 4 | Emiya Shirō | 10882 | Hikigaya Hachiman | 17331 | |
Elimination 5 | Emiya Shirō | 6767 | Hikigaya Hachiman | 27047 | |
Sapphire 6 | Emiya Shirō | 5006 | Ishida Shōya | 5582 | |
Diamond 3 | Emiya Shirō | 12801 | Ishida Shōya | 11778 | |
Sapphire 5 | Eren Yeager | 2301 | Levi | 7334 | |
Diamond 1 | Eren Yeager | 11185 | Levi | 15567 | |
Amethyst 4 | Eren Yeager | 3822 | Natsume Takashi | 2746 | |
Ruby 3 | Eren Yeager | 13486 | Natsume Takashi | 13349 | |
Emerald 4 | Eren Yeager | 8795 | Okabe Rintarō | 11099 | |
Diamond 3 | Eren Yeager | 8537 | Okabe Rintarō | 17932 | |
Topaz 8 | Eren Yeager | 2595 | Togashi Yūta | 4311 | |
Diamond 2 | Eren Yeager | 12320 | Togashi Yūta | 13855 | |
Topaz 10 | Eren Yeager | 5019 | Uchiha Itachi | 4382 | |
Ruby 5 | Eren Yeager | 15819 | Uchiha Itachi | 15515 | |
Ruby 2 | Erythrocyte | 10295 | Tsuyuzaki Mahiru | 9660 | |
Ruby 6 | Erythrocyte | 16722 | Tsuyuzaki Mahiru | 12921 | |
Emerald 2 | Furukawa Nagisa | 10610 | Makise Kurisu | 10115 | |
Diamond 5 | Furukawa Nagisa | 11991 | Makise Kurisu | 19778 | |
Ruby 3 | Furukawa Nagisa | 13953 | Shiro | 15640 | |
Diamond 4 | Furukawa Nagisa | 14309 | Shiro | 16646 | |
Topaz 9 | Furukawa Nagisa | 4619 | Tōru | 4643 | |
Ruby 4 | Furukawa Nagisa | 18481 | Tōru | 18040 | |
Amethyst 3 | Gilgamesh | 2102 | Kyon | 2153 | |
Diamond 1 | Gilgamesh | 12147 | Kyon | 14338 | |
Topaz 8 | Gilgamesh | 3802 | Todoroki Shōto | 3134 | |
Elimination 3 | Gilgamesh | 13541 | Todoroki Shōto | 19809 | |
Aquamarine 3 | Heiwajima Shizuo | 1883 | Kamijō Tōma | 3283 | |
Emerald 3 | Heiwajima Shizuo | 9492 | Kamijō Tōma | 13026 | |
Ruby 3 | Hikigaya Hachiman | 18405 | Ishida Shōya | 10654 | |
Diamond 2 | Hikigaya Hachiman | 16871 | Ishida Shōya | 10189 | |
Topaz 9 | Hikigaya Hachiman | 7093 | Kaneki Ken | 2962 | |
Ruby 1 | Hikigaya Hachiman | 9903 | Kaneki Ken | 8530 | |
Aquamarine 2 | Izumi Sagiri | 4157 | Kōsaka Reina | 2846 | |
Diamond 5 | Izumi Sagiri | 17631 | Kōsaka Reina | 10035 | |
Emerald 4 | Izumi Sagiri | 11735 | Tokisaki Kurumi | 10174 | |
Diamond 4 | Izumi Sagiri | 14123 | Tokisaki Kurumi | 14217 | |
Aquamarine 11 | Kamijō Tōma | 3789 | Todoroki Shōto | 3319 | |
Ruby 3 | Kamijō Tōma | 12377 | Todoroki Shōto | 14206 | |
Topaz 7 | Kanna Kamui | 6099 | Kuriyama Mirai | 2467 | |
Ruby 3 | Kanna Kamui | 18947 | Kuriyama Mirai | 12015 | |
Ruby 4 | Kasumigaoka Utaha | 18054 | Nakano Azusa | 16170 | |
Elimination 2 | Kasumigaoka Utaha | 14074 | Nakano Azusa | 15294 | |
Amethyst 7 | Kasumigaoka Utaha | 3402 | Tokisaki Kurumi | 5359 | |
Ruby 3 | Kasumigaoka Utaha | 14646 | Tokisaki Kurumi | 17410 | |
Amethyst 2 | Kinomoto Sakura | 3458 | Kitashirakawa Tamako | 2679 | |
Diamond 4 | Kinomoto Sakura | 13455 | Kitashirakawa Tamako | 15669 | |
Ruby 5 | Kinomoto Sakura | 15512 | Nakano Azusa | 17847 | |
Diamond 1 | Kinomoto Sakura | 16659 | Nakano Azusa | 13182 | |
Amethyst 8 | Kinomoto Sakura | 3770 | Yukinoshita Yukino | 5521 | |
Elimination 2 | Kinomoto Sakura | 13076 | Yukinoshita Yukino | 18113 | |
Emerald 4 | Kitashirakawa Tamako | 10903 | Takanashi Rikka | 7992 | |
Diamond 2 | Kitashirakawa Tamako | 12108 | Takanashi Rikka | 14563 | |
Amethyst 2 | Kōsaka Reina | 2654 | Saber | 3359 | |
Diamond 4 | Kōsaka Reina | 13115 | Saber | 15776 | |
Amethyst 6 | Kōsaka Reina | 4048 | Takanashi Rikka | 6960 | |
Ruby 4 | Kōsaka Reina | 18838 | Takanashi Rikka | 17371 | |
Ruby 1 | Kuriyama Mirai | 9642 | Nagato Yuki | 10002 | |
Elimination 4 | Kuriyama Mirai | 15859 | Nagato Yuki | 15131 | |
Amethyst 5 | Kuriyama Mirai | 4187 | Sakura Chiyo | 3002 | |
Ruby 4 | Kuriyama Mirai | 16157 | Sakura Chiyo | 19230 | |
Sapphire 5 | Kyon | 4121 | Midoriya Izuku | 4725 | |
Ruby 5 | Kyon | 15666 | Midoriya Izuku | 15335 | |
Aquamarine 11 | Kyon | 2624 | Shiota Nagisa | 4796 | |
Ruby 1 | Kyon | 8810 | Shiota Nagisa | 9207 | |
Emerald 4 | Kyon | 8901 | Willem Kmetsch | 10230 | |
Diamond 5 | Kyon | 12332 | Willem Kmetsch | 14964 | |
Topaz 9 | Levi | 6185 | Natsuki Subaru | 3568 | |
Ruby 1 | Levi | 9680 | Natsuki Subaru | 9040 | |
Topaz 7 | Levi | 4355 | Okazaki Tomoya | 2480 | |
Diamond 3 | Levi | 19781 | Okazaki Tomoya | 5975 | |
Elimination 4 | Levi | 24390 | Okazaki Tomoya | 11230 | |
Amethyst 2 | Li Syaoran | 1667 | Natsume Takashi | 3200 | |
Elimination 8 | Li Syaoran | 21280 | Natsume Takashi | 22791 | |
Sapphire 3 | Makise Kurisu | 2815 | Nakano Azusa | 4290 | |
Elimination 6 | Makise Kurisu | 22837 | Nakano Azusa | 17566 | |
Sapphire 4 | Midoriya Izuku | 2169 | Tachibana Taki | 2365 | |
Elimination 3 | Midoriya Izuku | 15855 | Tachibana Taki | 16326 | |
Aquamarine 7 | Nagato Yuki | 3659 | Sakura Chiyo | 2733 | |
Ruby 5 | Nagato Yuki | 15117 | Sakura Chiyo | 16370 | |
Emerald 3 | Nakano Azusa | 10207 | Shiina Mashiro | 12788 | |
Diamond 4 | Nakano Azusa | 13440 | Shiina Mashiro | 16348 | |
Aquamarine 13 | Natsuki Subaru | 3796 | Natsume Takashi | 4177 | |
Elimination 4 | Natsuki Subaru | 14967 | Natsume Takashi | 16378 | |
Sapphire 3 | Natsuki Subaru | 2682 | Saiki Kusuo | 2825 | |
Ruby 2 | Natsuki Subaru | 10227 | Saiki Kusuo | 9309 | |
Emerald 4 | Natsuki Subaru | 9206 | Saitama | 9698 | |
Diamond 4 | Natsuki Subaru | 13867 | Saitama | 11685 | |
Amethyst 7 | Natsuki Subaru | 3199 | Shiota Nagisa | 5192 | |
Diamond 1 | Natsuki Subaru | 12347 | Shiota Nagisa | 14924 | |
Topaz 5 | Nibutani Shinka | 2707 | Rem | 3927 | |
Ruby 1 | Nibutani Shinka | 6737 | Rem | 12895 | |
Amethyst 3 | Nibutani Shinka | 2220 | Tōru | 2816 | |
Ruby 3 | Nibutani Shinka | 13509 | Tōru | 14003 | |
Emerald 2 | Nishimiya Shōko | 11348 | Yuigahama Yui | 8509 | |
Diamond 3 | Nishimiya Shōko | 13448 | Yuigahama Yui | 12782 | |
Diamond 4 | Okabe Rintarō | 14690 | Todoroki Shōto | 12391 | |
Elimination 8 | Okabe Rintarō | 25501 | Todoroki Shōto | 19323 | |
Sapphire 3 | Orihara Izaya | 1938 | Yato | 3258 | |
Ruby 4 | Orihara Izaya | 12870 | Yato | 15270 | |
Diamond 5 | Rem | 14348 | Shiina Mashiro | 13187 | |
Elimination 7 | Rem | 27005 | Shiina Mashiro | 18441 | |
Ruby 4 | Rem | 24319 | Shiro | 12636 | |
Elimination 6 | Rem | 31391 | Shiro | 12240 | |
Amethyst 6 | Riku Dola | 4692 | Willem Kmetsch | 3877 | |
Elimination 3 | Riku Dola | 22407 | Willem Kmetsch | 15794 | |
Ruby 1 | Saber | 10093 | Tōsaka Rin | 11247 | |
Elimination 8 | Saber | 20811 | Tōsaka Rin | 23663 | |
Diamond 3 | Saber | 6358 | Yūki Asuna | 9306 | |
Elimination 4 | Saber | 14612 | Yūki Asuna | 18094 | |
Diamond 3 | Saitama | 9495 | Shiota Nagisa | 15257 | |
Elimination 2 | Saitama | 14362 | Shiota Nagisa | 14449 | |
Amethyst 2 | Saitama | 2576 | Takasu Ryūji | 2591 | |
Ruby 3 | Saitama | 13640 | Takasu Ryūji | 13353 | |
Sapphire 2 | Sakura Chiyo | 3865 | Tokisaki Kurumi | 2902 | |
Elimination 1 | Sakura Chiyo | 17586 | Tokisaki Kurumi | 17297 | |
Amethyst 5 | Satō Kazuma | 3103 | Uchiha Itachi | 3069 | |
Elimination 3 | Satō Kazuma | 17179 | Uchiha Itachi | 14540 | |
Sapphire 5 | Schwi Dola | 5155 | Yuigahama Yui | 3903 | |
Elimination 1 | Schwi Dola | 14674 | Yuigahama Yui | 13883 | |
Amethyst 5 | Shiina Mashiro | 4052 | Yuigahama Yui | 3910 | |
Ruby 3 | Shiina Mashiro | 15347 | Yuigahama Yui | 15132 | |
Amethyst 5 | Shiota Nagisa | 4069 | Todoroki Shōto | 2415 | |
Elimination 7 | Shiota Nagisa | 20298 | Todoroki Shōto | 21069 | |
Sapphire 6 | Shiota Nagisa | 6525 | Willem Kmetsch | 4891 | |
Elimination 8 | Shiota Nagisa | 23125 | Willem Kmetsch | 21179 | |
Topaz 10 | Takasu Ryūji | 3432 | Togashi Yūta | 5016 | |
Elimination 4 | Takasu Ryūji | 14967 | Togashi Yūta | 15827 | |
Sapphire 2 | Togashi Yūta | 2873 | Willem Kmetsch | 2889 | |
Elimination 7 | Togashi Yūta | 20750 | Willem Kmetsch | 20977 |

Re: Modified Pot value experiment
ISML 2019
Unexpected matchesShow
FEV% | Contestant | VF | VF | Opponent | Z-score | |
Diamond 1 | 40.81% | Nakano Azusa | 9680 | 9671 | Tōsaka Rin | 4.1 |
Amethyst 3 | 42.20% | Yuigahama Yui | 5854 | 5559 | Tōsaka Rin | 3.0 |
Ruby 3 | 43.95% | Takanashi Rikka | 7444 | 6226 | Yukinoshita Yukino | 5.1 |
Elimination 5 | 45.04% | Violet Evergarden | 13329 | 13156 | Tōsaka Rin | 1.9 |
Diamond 3 | 45.60% | Shiina Mashiro | 11395 | 11176 | Tokisaki Kurumi | 2.1 |
Amethyst 2 | 45.62% | Kafū Chino | 5417 | 5351 | Kanna Kamui | 3.6 |
Emerald 2 | 45.69% | Okazaki Tomoya | 5585 | 5568 | Rimuru Tempest | 2.0 |
Amethyst 3 | 45.71% | Dazai Osamu | 4707 | 4401 | Ayanokōji Kiyotaka | 3.3 |
Diamond 2 | 45.98% | Kafū Chino | 10121 | 8061 | Schwi Dola | 13.0 |
Ruby 2 | 46.36% | Lancer | 5459 | 5408 | Willem Kmetsch | 3.9 |
RematchesShow
Ruby 3 | Aisaka Taiga | 6022 | Yoshino | 6166 | |
Elimination 2 | Aisaka Taiga | 9964 | Yoshino | 8961 | |
Sapphire 3 | Araragi Koyomi | 6537 | Lancer | 5662 | |
Elimination 3 | Araragi Koyomi | 9227 | Lancer | 10109 | |
Diamond 3 | Archer | 9788 | Ayanokōji Kiyotaka | 9478 | |
Elimination 2 | Archer | 9936 | Ayanokōji Kiyotaka | 8865 | |
Sapphire 1 | Ayanokōji Kiyotaka | 7366 | Kyon | 5307 | |
Elimination 4 | Ayanokōji Kiyotaka | 8667 | Kyon | 8312 | |
Topaz 3 | Edogawa Conan | 6661 | Saiki Kusuo | 6537 | |
Elimination 2 | Edogawa Conan | 8810 | Saiki Kusuo | 8667 | |
Emerald 2 | Edward Elric | 5180 | Saiki Kusuo | 4994 | |
Elimination 1 | Edward Elric | 9068 | Saiki Kusuo | 9026 | |
Ruby 1 | Emilia | 6613 | Akiyama Mio | 5613 | |
Elimination 2 | Emilia | 10608 | Akiyama Mio | 9774 | |
Amethyst 1 | Illyasviel von Einzbern | 5047 | Alice Zuberg | 5033 | |
Diamond 4 | Illyasviel von Einzbern | 9304 | Alice Zuberg | 9069 | |
Diamond 2 | Izumi Sagiri | 10547 | Takanashi Rikka | 9443 | |
Elimination 4 | Izumi Sagiri | 9623 | Takanashi Rikka | 9647 | |
Sapphire 1 | Kanda Sorata | 6280 | Edogawa Conan | 6364 | |
Elimination 1 | Kanda Sorata | 9326 | Edogawa Conan | 8853 | |
Amethyst 2 | Kanna Kamui | 5351 | Kafū Chino | 5417 | |
Elimination 4 | Kanna Kamui | 9908 | Kafū Chino | 9055 | |
Emerald 2 | Kanna Kamui | 5951 | Nakano Azusa | 5703 | |
Elimination 1 | Kanna Kamui | 10459 | Nakano Azusa | 10309 | |
Diamond 3 | Lancer | 9651 | Natsuki Subaru | 9382 | |
Elimination 2 | Lancer | 9110 | Natsuki Subaru | 8540 | |
Ruby 3 | Levi | 6389 | Emiya Shirō | 4987 | |
Elimination 2 | Levi | 9730 | Emiya Shirō | 9105 | |
Emerald 2 | Natsuki Subaru | 5416 | Araragi Koyomi | 4999 | |
Elimination 1 | Natsuki Subaru | 9380 | Araragi Koyomi | 8634 | |
Sapphire 2 | Natsume Takashi | 6014 | Arima Kōsei | 5036 | |
Diamond 3 | Natsume Takashi | 9582 | Arima Kōsei | 9068 | |
Aquamarine 2 | Natsume Takashi | 5592 | Takasu Ryūji | 4270 | |
Elimination 2 | Natsume Takashi | 9204 | Takasu Ryūji | 7929 | |
Emerald 2 | Rimuru Tempest | 5568 | Okazaki Tomoya | 5585 | |
Elimination 4 | Rimuru Tempest | 9429 | Okazaki Tomoya | 8902 | |
Diamond 1 | Saitama | 8812 | Willem Kmetsch | 7849 | |
Elimination 3 | Saitama | 9428 | Willem Kmetsch | 9671 | |
Ruby 3 | Sakurajima Mai | 7366 | Yūki Asuna | 6639 | |
Elimination 2 | Sakurajima Mai | 10807 | Yūki Asuna | 9576 | |
Sapphire 2 | Satō Kazuma | 5545 | Natsuki Subaru | 5591 | |
Elimination 4 | Satō Kazuma | 8300 | Natsuki Subaru | 8005 | |
Amethyst 2 | Sawamura Spencer Eriri | 5064 | Tōru | 5139 | |
Elimination 2 | Sawamura Spencer Eriri | 9774 | Tōru | 9421 | |
Emerald 2 | Schwi Dola | 6030 | Isshiki Iroha | 5872 | |
Elimination 4 | Schwi Dola | 9315 | Isshiki Iroha | 8914 | |
Diamond 1 | Schwi Dola | 9570 | Takagi | 9488 | |
Elimination 2 | Schwi Dola | 10261 | Takagi | 9160 | |
Ruby 1 | Schwi Dola | 6302 | Yoshino | 5085 | |
Elimination 1 | Schwi Dola | 11268 | Yoshino | 9587 | |
Sapphire 2 | Shiro | 6826 | Aisaka Taiga | 5877 | |
Elimination 3 | Shiro | 11251 | Aisaka Taiga | 10199 | |
Emerald 1 | Shiro | 6114 | Index L. Prohibitorum | 5839 | |
Elimination 1 | Shiro | 11261 | Index L. Prohibitorum | 9687 | |
Ruby 3 | Takagi | 7155 | Megumin | 5467 | |
Elimination 1 | Takagi | 10675 | Megumin | 10277 | |
Diamond 1 | Takanashi Rikka | 9690 | Emilia | 10517 | |
Elimination 5 | Takanashi Rikka | 14057 | Emilia | 12336 | |
Ruby 3 | Takanashi Rikka | 7444 | Yukinoshita Yukino | 6226 | |
Elimination 1 | Takanashi Rikka | 11565 | Yukinoshita Yukino | 9485 | |
Sapphire 2 | Tokisaki Kurumi | 7026 | Isshiki Iroha | 5888 | |
Elimination 1 | Tokisaki Kurumi | 11388 | Isshiki Iroha | 10540 | |
Topaz 3 | Tōsaka Rin | 10588 | Kafū Chino | 4703 | |
Elimination 2 | Tōsaka Rin | 13690 | Kafū Chino | 7127 |

Re: Modified Pot value experiment
M | W | W% | M | W | W% | ||
2019 | 786 | 644 | 81.93% | 2018 | 1859 | 1434 | 77.14% |
Female | 385 | 318 | 82.60% | Female | 921 | 703 | 76.33% |
Male | 385 | 312 | 81.04% | Male | 921 | 723 | 78.50% |
ToC | 16 | 14 | 87.50% | ||||
Topaz | 64 | 49 | 76.56% | Topaz | 480 | 423 | 88.13% |
Female | 32 | 27 | 84.38% | Female | 240 | 209 | 87.08% |
Male | 32 | 22 | 68.75% | Male | 240 | 214 | 89.17% |
Amethyst | 168 | 142 | 84.52% | Amethyst | 368 | 286 | 77.72% |
Female | 84 | 70 | 83.33% | Female | 184 | 138 | 75.00% |
Male | 84 | 72 | 85.71% | Male | 184 | 148 | 80.43% |
Sapphire | 144 | 122 | 84.72% | Sapphire | 300 | 227 | 75.67% |
Female | 72 | 58 | 80.56% | Female | 150 | 114 | 76.00% |
Male | 72 | 64 | 88.89% | Male | 150 | 113 | 75.33% |
Emerald | 120 | 110 | 91.67% | Emerald | 240 | 175 | 72.92% |
Female | 60 | 57 | 95.00% | Female | 120 | 87 | 72.50% |
Male | 60 | 53 | 88.33% | Male | 120 | 88 | 73.33% |
Ruby | 96 | 79 | 82.29% | Ruby | 204 | 142 | 69.61% |
Female | 48 | 40 | 83.33% | Female | 102 | 70 | 68.63% |
Male | 48 | 39 | 81.25% | Male | 102 | 72 | 70.59% |
Diamond | 80 | 65 | 81.25% | Diamond | 132 | 98 | 74.24% |
Female | 40 | 33 | 82.50% | Female | 66 | 47 | 71.21% |
Male | 40 | 32 | 80.00% | Male | 66 | 51 | 77.27% |
Elimination | 98 | 63 | 64.29% | Elimination | 118 | 75 | 63.56% |
Female | 49 | 33 | 67.35% | Female | 59 | 38 | 64.41% |
Male | 49 | 30 | 61.22% | Male | 59 | 37 | 62.71% |
50% ≤ FEV% < 51% | 168 | 102 | 60.71% | 50% ≤ FEV% < 51% | 261 | 144 | 55.17% |
51% ≤ FEV% < 52% | 145 | 109 | 75.17% | 51% ≤ FEV% < 52% | 230 | 136 | 59.13% |
52% ≤ FEV% < 53% | 127 | 104 | 81.89% | 52% ≤ FEV% < 53% | 222 | 151 | 68.02% |
53% ≤ FEV% < 54% | 135 | 127 | 94.07% | 53% ≤ FEV% < 54% | 193 | 144 | 74.61% |
54% ≤ FEV% < 55% | 101 | 95 | 94.06% | 54% ≤ FEV% < 55% | 191 | 162 | 84.82% |
55% ≤ FEV% < 56% | 59 | 59 | 100.00% | 55% ≤ FEV% < 56% | 156 | 136 | 87.18% |
56% ≤ FEV% < 57% | 25 | 24 | 96.00% | 56% ≤ FEV% < 57% | 100 | 91 | 91.00% |
57% ≤ FEV% < 58% | 12 | 11 | 91.67% | 57% ≤ FEV% < 58% | 117 | 102 | 87.18% |
58% ≤ FEV% < 59% | 6 | 6 | 100.00% | 58% ≤ FEV% < 59% | 98 | 91 | 92.86% |
59% ≤ FEV% < 60% | 7 | 6 | 85.71% | 59% ≤ FEV% < 60% | 84 | 74 | 88.10% |
60% ≤ FEV% | 1 | 1 | 100.00% | 60% ≤ FEV% | 207 | 203 | 98.07% |
