Modified Pot value experiment

maglor's Cards · Post by **maglor** » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:25 pm

This thread is to explain, discuss, and perhaps gather new input and analysis on the open project discussed in the following post : http://www.internationalsaimoe.com/foru ... 61#p413961" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Let's start with 2017 with character that was most talked about for the entire year, REM ( Megumi, the tiara winner, received lion-size of attention during elimination period, which, surprisingly, is typical of most Tiara winners. It actually is uncommon for #1 or 2 seed to win the elimination period )

Going into the 1st match of 2017, REM would have 100 points, just like everyone else. Her opponent Saten Ruiko also would have 100 points in her pot.

Now, since we are dealing with 3 separate percentages for the "betting amount" it may be easier to consider that every one has actually 3 pots, one titled N=0.1, another titled N=0.2, and the last titled N=0.5. All 3 pots have 100 points for both characters.

For the match Rem and Ruiko both pulls out appropriate percentage of what's inside the pot as their bets.

from N=0.1 pot, they pull out 10 on to the betting table, leaving 90 behind. N=0.1 table would have total of 10+10 = 20 points
from N=0.2 pot, they pull out 20 on to the betting table, leaving 80 behind. N=0.2 table would have total of 20+20 = 40 points
from N=0.5 pot, they pull out 50 on to the betting table, leaving 50 behind. N=0.5 table would have total of 50+50 = 100 points

The result of Aquamarine 1 match was 709 votes for Saten Ruiko and 1173 votes for Rem . Since Rem's VF% is 62.327%, she would receive 62.327% of the values on the table, while Ruiko will take the remaining 37.673%

The amount they take back is as follows

Rem take N=0.1 : 12.46546227
Rem take N=0.2 : 24.93092455
Rem take N=0.5 : 62.32731137
Ruiko take N=0.1 : 7.534537726
Ruiko take N=0.2 : 15.06907545
Ruiko take N=0.5 : 37.67268863

Note that while they contributed the same amount into the pot, they take back different amount. After they split the pot, Rem and Ruiko would both have new values for each of their three pots

Rem's new pot N=0.1 : 102.4654623
Rem's new pot N=0.2 : 104.9309245
Rem's new pot N=0.3 : 112.3273114
Ruiko's new pot N=0.1 : 97.53453773
Ruiko's new pot N=0.2 : 95.06907545
Ruiko's new pot N=0.3 : 87.67268863

Thus ended the first round.

Now, in the 2nd round Rem meets Sento Isuzu. Isuzu lost to Kōsaka Reina with VF of 49.22%. Her pot entering into Round 1 is as follows

Sento Isuzu New Pot N=0.1 : 99.84343091
Sento Isuzu New Pot N=0.2 : 99.68686181
Sento Isuzu New Pot N=0.5 : 99.21715453

We start the process again, but now, note that they contribute different amount into each pot

Into N=0.1 pot, Rem contributes 10.247, Isuzu contributes 9.984. The total for the pot is 20.23088932
Into N= 0.2 pot Rem contributes 20.986. Isuzu contributes 19.937. The total for the pot is 40.92355727
Into N=0.5 pot Rem contributes 56.164. Isuzu contributes 49.609. The total for the pot is 105.7722329

The match was 1601 to 874 in favor of Rem. Thus Rem takes 64.69% of the pot

The amount they take back is as follows

Rem take N=0.1 : 13.08672881
Rem take N=0.2 : 26.47216775
Rem take N=0.5 : 68.42074543
Isuzu take N=0.1 : 7.144160511
Isuzu take N=0.2 : 14.45138952
Isuzu take N=0.5 : 37.35148751

Their new pot values are now as follows

Rem's new pot N=0.1 : 105.3056449
Rem's new pot N=0.2 : 110.4169074
Rem's new pot N=0.3 : 124.5844011
Sento Isuzu New Pot N=0.1 : 97.00324833
Sento Isuzu New Pot N=0.2 : 94.20087897
Sento Isuzu New Pot N=0.5 : 86.96006478

Thus ends Round 2

Now in Round 3, Rem meets Kasugano Sora. Kasugano Sora enters into the match with pot values as follows

Kasugano Sora new pot n=0.1 : 101.627352
Kasugano Sora new pot n=0.2 : 103.2188397
Kasugano Sora new pot n=0.5 : 107.7781175

We do the process again

Into N=0.1 pot, Rem contributes 10.531, Isuzu contributes10.163. The total for the pot is 20.69329968
Into N= 0.2 pot Rem contributes 22.083. Isuzu contributes 20.644. The total for the pot is 42.72714943
Into N=0.5 pot Rem contributes 62.292. Isuzu contributes 53.889. The total for the pot is 116.1812593

The match was 1031 to 577 in favor of Rem. Thus Rem takes 64.12% of the pot

---------------------- Work in progress

IGNITE · Post by **IGNITE** » Sat Feb 10, 2018 4:20 am

maglor wrote:It actually is uncommon for #1 or 2 seed to win the elimination period.

I went and had a look after reading this, the result is 5/10 tiara winners having #1 or #2 seed for elimination period, it's not really uncommon.

SpoilerShow

2008 Fate Testarossa RS 1st
2009 Katsura Hinagiku RS 11th
2010 Akiyama Mio RS 3rd
2011 Misaka Mikoto RS 2nd
2012 Tachibana Kanade Nova PS1 1st
2013 Gokō Ruri (Kuroneko) Stella PS1 2nd
2014 Itsuka Kotori Nova PS1 6th
2015 Chitanda Eru Stella PS1 3rd
2016 Shana Female CVP 2nd
2017 Katō Megumi Female CVP 7th

maglor's Cards · Post by **maglor** » Sat Feb 10, 2018 4:48 pm

IGNITE wrote:
maglor wrote:It actually is uncommon for #1 or 2 seed to win the elimination period.
I went and had a look after reading this, the result is 5/10 tiara winners having #1 or #2 seed for elimination period, it's not really uncommon.
SpoilerShow
2008 Fate Testarossa RS 1st
2009 Katsura Hinagiku RS 11th
2010 Akiyama Mio RS 3rd
2011 Misaka Mikoto RS 2nd
2012 Tachibana Kanade Nova PS1 1st
2013 Gokō Ruri (Kuroneko) Stella PS1 2nd
2014 Itsuka Kotori Nova PS1 6th
2015 Chitanda Eru Stella PS1 3rd
2016 Shana Female CVP 2nd
2017 Katō Megumi Female CVP 7th

Nice analysis. So, chance of #1 or 2 winning is a coin toss

Homura · Post by **Homura** » Sat Feb 10, 2018 6:09 pm

The time for #4 or #5 seed winning the Tiara lies ahead, possibly in the near future~

~Baumkuchen-kun~ · Post by **~Baumkuchen-kun~** » Thu Feb 22, 2018 4:50 am

Gaaaah, this feels so weird to look at after all these years on this forum

XIQQ · Post by **XIQQ** » Fri Jun 29, 2018 6:09 pm

Topaz 1, sorted by FEV% (sorry for the poor formatting)

SpoilerShow

Name FEV% STDV%
Kanna Kamui 66.154% ±5.134%
Shiro 64.937% ±4.81%
Nishimiya Shōko 64.649% ±4.822%
Rem 64.361% ±4.395%
Tōru 63.835% ±4.582%
Yūki Asuna 63.28% ±4.251%
Shiina Mashiro 62.34% ±4.159%
Takanashi Rikka 60.446% ±3.477%
Furukawa Nagisa 53.082% ±1.852%
Isla 52.397% ±1.067%
Saten Ruiko 52.316% ±1.692%
Nibutani Shinka 51.928% ±0.566%
Yuzuriha Inori 51.822% ±1.382%
Shiina Mayuri 51.814% ±0.743%
Kōsaka Reina 51.621% ±2.02%
Miyamizu Mitsuha 51.614% ±0.582%
Kasugano Sora 51.441% ±1.637%
Tobiichi Origami 51.317% ±0.368%
Kuroyukihime 51.298% ±0.463%
Aqua 51.039% ±1.675%
Tomori Nao 50.921% ±1.737%
Aragaki Ayase 50.797% ±0.663%
Kaname Madoka 50.13% ±1.831%
Daidōji Tomoyo 50.039% ±1.022%
Kani Nayuta 49.961% ±1.022%
Ōmae Kumiko 49.87% ±1.831%
Asada Shino 49.203% ±0.663%
Doma Umaru 49.079% ±1.737%
Yamada Elf 48.961% ±1.675%
Kirigaya Suguha (Leafa) 48.702% ±0.463%
Kuriyama Mirai 48.683% ±0.368%
Diamond 48.559% ±1.637%
Hirasawa Yui 48.386% ±0.582%
Yuigahama Yui 48.379% ±2.02%
Tenma Gabriel White 48.186% ±0.743%
Nagato Yuki 48.178% ±1.382%
Minami Kotori 48.072% ±0.566%
C.C. 47.684% ±1.692%
Sawamura Spencer Eriri 47.603% ±1.067%
Nero Claudius 46.918% ±1.852%
Ayano Keiko (Silica) 39.554% ±3.477%
Shirakawa Miyako 37.66% ±4.159%
Nishikino Maki 36.72% ±4.251%
Oshino Shinobu 36.165% ±4.582%
Kirishima Tōka 35.639% ±4.395%
Kayano Kaede 35.351% ±4.822%
Onodera Kosaki 35.063% ±4.81%
Kanzaki H. Aria 33.846% ±5.134%

SpoilerShow

Name FEV% STDV%
Hikigaya Hachiman 66.028% ±4.939%
Levi 64.407% ±4.736%
Shiota Nagisa 61.856% ±3.816%
Tachibana Taki 61.303% ±4.206%
Ayanokōji Kiyotaka 60.791% ±3.491%
Okabe Rintarō 60.672% ±3.535%
Emiya Shirō 60.578% ±3.341%
Archer 58.605% ±2.835%
Kanie Seiya 52.077% ±0.877%
Sakamaki Izayoi 52.03% ±1.381%
Uchiha Sasuke 51.956% ±1.38%
Yato 51.824% ±1.448%
Yukihira Sōma 51.535% ±1.108%
Willem Kmetsch 51.461% ±1.2%
Akasaka Ryūnosuke 51.253% ±1.239%
Natsume Takashi 51.082% ±1.814%
Okazaki Tomoya 51.049% ±2.042%
Li Syaoran 50.884% ±0.881%
Isana Yashiro 50.779% ±0.779%
Satō Kazuma 50.6% ±1.301%
Sakamoto 50.564% ±1.086%
Kanzaki Hideri 50.387% ±1.672%
Dazai Osamu 50.288% ±1.132%
Satoshi 50.169% ±1.837%
Suō Mikoto 49.831% ±1.837%
Kōsaka Kyōsuke 49.712% ±1.132%
Amamiya Ren 49.613% ±1.672%
Arima Kōsei 49.436% ±1.086%
Kaneki Ken 49.4% ±1.301%
Amakusa Shirō Tokisada 49.221% ±0.779%
Doma Taihei 49.116% ±0.881%
Natsuki Subaru 48.951% ±2.042%
Midoriya Izuku 48.918% ±1.814%
Tatsumi 48.747% ±1.239%
Itsuka Shidō 48.539% ±1.2%
Kanda Sorata 48.465% ±1.108%
Totsuka Saika 48.176% ±1.448%
Orihara Izaya 48.044% ±1.38%
Son Goku 47.97% ±1.381%
Armin Arlert 47.923% ±0.877%
Leonardo Watch 41.395% ±2.835%
Kasugano Haruka 39.422% ±3.341%
Killua Zoldyck 39.328% ±3.535%
Akatsuki Kojō 39.209% ±3.491%
Sebas Tian 38.697% ±4.206%
Bakugō Katsuki 38.144% ±3.816%
Nanase Haruka 35.593% ±4.736%
Tomoe 33.972% ±4.939%

Ennadai · Post by **Ennadai** » Tue Feb 26, 2019 1:00 pm

	M	3	5	10	3	5	10
Topaz 1	48	14	6	3	7	3	1
Topaz 2	48	3	1	0	0	0	0
Topaz 3	48	16	7	1	3	2	1
Topaz 4	50	12	4	0	1	1	0
Topaz 5	48	14	4	0	1	1	0
Topaz 6	48	13	4	0	2	0	0
Topaz 7	48	9	2	0	1	0	0
Topaz 8	48	17	8	1	3	2	1
Topaz 9	48	10	4	1	2	0	0
Topaz 10	48	13	5	0	7	1	0
Amethyst 1	32	13	7	1	3	3	0
Amethyst 2	48	17	5	0	5	3	0
Amethyst 3	48	17	3	1	1	0	0
Amethyst 4	48	16	5	1	4	3	0
Amethyst 5	48	24	9	1	7	4	0
Amethyst 6	48	21	10	1	9	6	1
Amethyst 7	48	22	14	4	12	8	3
Amethyst 8	48	22	7	2	15	7	2
Sapphire 1	12	2	1	0	1	1	0
Sapphire 2	48	11	5	1	6	4	1
Sapphire 3	48	23	14	2	8	4	0
Sapphire 4	48	19	4	1	6	0	0
Sapphire 5	50	23	11	2	9	7	2
Sapphire 6	48	15	6	0	5	3	0
Sapphire 7	48	13	7	1	10	6	0
Emerald 1	48	21	12	3	10	9	2
Emerald 2	48	7	1	0	2	1	0
Emerald 3	48	16	11	0	6	4	0
Emerald 4	48	13	4	0	7	3	0
Emerald 5	48	21	10	4	12	5	2
Ruby 1	36	6	1	0	2	0	0
Ruby 2	36	5	1	0	3	0	0
Ruby 3	42	3	2	0	3	2	0
Ruby 4	42	12	4	0	10	4	0
Ruby 5	42	8	5	0	4	3	0
Ruby 6	8	2	1	0	2	1	0
Diamond 1	24	6	1	0	2	1	0
Diamond 2	24	6	1	0	4	1	0
Diamond 3	24	5	3	1	1	0	0
Diamond 4	24	2	0	0	2	0	0
Diamond 5	24	8	5	0	2	2	0
Diamond 6	12	3	3	1	1	1	0
Elimination 1	8	2	0	0	1	0	0
Elimination 2	9	1	0	0	0	0	0
Elimination 3	12	3	2	0	1	1	0
Elimination 4	14	4	1	0	2	1	0
Elimination 5	20	4	1	0	2	0	0
Elimination 6	22	7	2	0	5	2	0
Elimination 7	22	1	1	0	0	0	0
Elimination 8	22	4	0	0	2	0	0

LegendShow

M	number of matches that both of the contestants have participated in more than five matches
3	ABS( Z-score ) ≥ 3 ∧ ABS( VF% - FEV% ) ≥ 3%
5	ABS( Z-score ) ≥ 5 ∧ ABS( VF% - FEV% ) ≥ 5%
10	ABS( Z-score ) ≥ 10 ∧ ABS( VF% - FEV% ) ≥ 10%
3	ABS( Z-score ) ≥ 3 ∧ ABS( VF% - FEV% ) ≥ 3% ∧ ( VF% > 50% ∧ FEV% < 50% ∨ VF% < 50% ∧ FEV% > 50% )
5	ABS( Z-score ) ≥ 5 ∧ ABS( VF% - FEV% ) ≥ 5% ∧ ( VF% > 50% ∧ FEV% < 50% ∨ VF% < 50% ∧ FEV% > 50% )
10	ABS( Z-score ) ≥ 10 ∧ ABS( VF% - FEV% ) ≥ 10% ∧ ( VF% > 50% ∧ FEV% < 50% ∨ VF% < 50% ∧ FEV% > 50% )

ABS( Z-score ) ≥ 10 ∧ ABS( VF% - FEV% ) ≥ 10%Show

ISML 2018	Contestant	FEV%	VF%	Opponent	STDV%	Z-score
Topaz 1	Tobiichi Origami	51.32%	40.98%	Kuriyama Mirai	0.39%	-26.46
Topaz 1	Nibutani Shinka	50.11%	63.20%	Minami Kotori	0.68%	19.22
Topaz 1	Kanie Seiya	51.97%	62.10%	Armin Arlert	0.91%	11.11
Topaz 3	Aragaki Ayase	52.95%	42.86%	Ōmae Kumiko	0.89%	-11.28
Topaz 8	Kitashirakawa Tamako	53.62%	37.95%	Sakura Chiyo	0.45%	-34.88
Topaz 9	Daidōji Tomoyo	50.35%	62.38%	Oshino Shinobu	0.90%	13.41
Amethyst 1	Edward Elric	52.47%	66.38%	Aki Tomoya	0.68%	20.58
Amethyst 3	Takanashi Rikka	58.54%	74.83%	Ōmae Kumiko	1.61%	10.11
Amethyst 4	Li Syaoran	52.74%	64.32%	Isana Yashiro	0.93%	12.47
Amethyst 5	Makise Kurisu	57.59%	69.33%	Saten Ruiko	0.86%	13.57
Amethyst 6	Schwi Dola	58.66%	37.97%	Shirai Kuroko	1.68%	-12.35
Amethyst 7	Emilia	57.99%	42.45%	Aoyama Nanami	1.00%	-15.56
Amethyst 7	Tōru	53.41%	24.79%	Aisaka Taiga	1.31%	-21.81
Amethyst 7	Todoroki Shōto	53.04%	66.08%	Orihara Izaya	0.71%	18.25
Amethyst 7	Kanda Sorata	50.95%	35.00%	Midoriya Izuku	1.28%	-12.51
Amethyst 8	Kōsaka Reina	50.48%	35.73%	Doma Umaru	0.98%	-15.02
Amethyst 8	Kanbara Akihito	55.42%	44.47%	Dazai Osamu	0.96%	-11.36
Sapphire 2	Yatogami Tōka	50.24%	38.05%	Nakano Azusa	0.78%	-15.56
Sapphire 3	Kinomoto Sakura	52.30%	66.78%	Sawamura Spencer Eriri	0.94%	15.33
Sapphire 3	Togashi Yūta	54.23%	67.74%	Kanda Sorata	1.11%	12.21
Sapphire 4	Takanashi Rikka	53.39%	68.73%	Tobiichi Origami	1.49%	10.29
Sapphire 5	Willem Kmetsch	55.46%	37.56%	Totsuka Saika	1.66%	-10.78
Sapphire 5	Natsume Takashi	57.54%	40.40%	Monkey D. Luffy	1.53%	-11.19
Sapphire 7	Tokisaki Kurumi	51.83%	65.82%	Illyasviel von Einzbern	0.90%	15.54
Emerald 1	Makise Kurisu	51.36%	34.64%	Miyazono Kaori	1.29%	-12.94
Emerald 1	Tōru	51.35%	36.10%	Isla	1.18%	-12.93
Emerald 1	Willem Kmetsch	51.03%	65.72%	Doma Taihei	0.47%	30.97
Emerald 5	Miyazono Kaori	50.45%	35.16%	Furukawa Nagisa	0.83%	-18.36
Emerald 5	Ishida Shōya	53.63%	35.42%	Lancer	1.05%	-17.37
Emerald 5	Riku Dola	52.58%	66.93%	Emiya Shirō	0.73%	19.67
Emerald 5	Okabe Rintarō	50.88%	65.40%	Ayanokōji Kiyotaka	0.97%	14.98
Diamond 3	Levi	56.96%	76.80%	Okazaki Tomoya	0.89%	22.20
Diamond 6	Schwi Dola	55.44%	69.14%	Daidōji Tomoyo	1.25%	10.92

ABS( VF% - FEV% ) ≥ 20%Show

ISML 2018	Contestant	FEV%	VF%	Opponent	STDV%	Z-score
Amethyst 6	Nishimiya Shōko	54.99%	75.50%	Furukawa Nagisa	3.25%	6.32
Amethyst 6	Schwi Dola	58.66%	37.97%	Shirai Kuroko	1.68%	-12.35
Amethyst 6	Nagato Yuki	59.35%	36.48%	Shiina Mayuri	3.17%	-7.22
Amethyst 7	Tōru	53.41%	24.79%	Aisaka Taiga	1.31%	-21.81
Amethyst 7	Nishimiya Shōko	60.00%	38.93%	Izumi Sagiri	3.77%	-5.59
Amethyst 8	Shiina Mashiro	57.77%	33.36%	Haibara Ai	3.14%	-7.78
Amethyst 8	Takanashi Rikka	54.64%	32.09%	Saber	2.37%	-9.51
Amethyst 8	Illyasviel von Einzbern	50.15%	25.42%	Chtholly Nota Seniorious	2.87%	-8.60
Sapphire 3	Yūki Asuna	61.51%	84.55%	Jibril	3.16%	7.30
Sapphire 5	Rem	56.10%	77.38%	Izumi Sagiri	3.14%	6.78
Sapphire 7	Yuzuriha Inori	52.07%	29.23%	Kōsaka Reina	2.70%	-8.46
Elimination 4	Kamijō Tōma	51.13%	29.53%	Archer	2.18%	-9.92
Elimination 6	Yūki Asuna	55.48%	32.75%	Shiina Mashiro	3.76%	-6.04

N	P₁₀	P₂₅	P₅₀	P₇₅	P₉₀	AVG	W%
0.1 , 0.2 , 0.3	0.61%	1.56%	3.65%	6.80%	11.30%	4.89%	77.08%
0.1 , 0.2 , 0.4	0.59%	1.57%	3.64%	6.75%	11.11%	4.84%	76.92%
0.1 , 0.2 , 0.5	0.54%	1.54%	3.62%	6.76%	11.01%	4.81%	77.14%
0.1 , 0.2 , 0.6	0.57%	1.52%	3.64%	6.75%	10.94%	4.81%	77.57%
0.1 , 0.2 , 0.7	0.60%	1.49%	3.69%	6.69%	11.02%	4.82%	77.08%
0.1 , 0.2 , 0.8	0.58%	1.52%	3.64%	6.65%	11.03%	4.83%	76.98%
0.1 , 0.2 , 0.9	0.63%	1.54%	3.71%	6.71%	11.08%	4.86%	76.87%
0.1 , 0.2 , 1.0	0.64%	1.59%	3.73%	6.81%	11.26%	4.91%	76.44%
0.1 , 0.3 , 0.4	0.59%	1.52%	3.55%	6.72%	11.06%	4.79%	77.19%
0.1 , 0.3 , 0.5	0.58%	1.50%	3.55%	6.58%	10.99%	4.77%	77.25%
0.1 , 0.3 , 0.6	0.58%	1.50%	3.56%	6.59%	11.04%	4.78%	77.35%
0.1 , 0.3 , 0.7	0.56%	1.50%	3.59%	6.58%	11.05%	4.79%	77.14%
0.1 , 0.3 , 0.8	0.56%	1.50%	3.57%	6.59%	11.17%	4.81%	77.03%
0.1 , 0.3 , 0.9	0.57%	1.55%	3.65%	6.70%	11.21%	4.84%	76.92%
0.1 , 0.3 , 1.0	0.60%	1.59%	3.71%	6.76%	11.14%	4.88%	76.39%
0.1 , 0.4 , 0.5	0.55%	1.48%	3.54%	6.58%	10.94%	4.76%	77.25%
0.1 , 0.4 , 0.6	0.55%	1.49%	3.52%	6.54%	10.98%	4.77%	77.08%
0.1 , 0.4 , 0.7	0.55%	1.51%	3.56%	6.56%	11.04%	4.79%	76.82%
0.1 , 0.4 , 0.8	0.55%	1.54%	3.60%	6.60%	11.01%	4.82%	76.92%
0.1 , 0.4 , 0.9	0.56%	1.57%	3.64%	6.72%	11.11%	4.85%	76.44%
0.1 , 0.4 , 1.0	0.59%	1.56%	3.73%	6.79%	11.18%	4.90%	76.49%
0.1 , 0.5 , 0.6	0.54%	1.50%	3.55%	6.56%	10.90%	4.79%	76.82%
0.1 , 0.5 , 0.7	0.55%	1.55%	3.63%	6.60%	11.03%	4.81%	76.87%
0.1 , 0.5 , 0.8	0.57%	1.54%	3.68%	6.65%	11.09%	4.85%	76.33%
0.1 , 0.5 , 0.9	0.60%	1.55%	3.71%	6.74%	11.09%	4.89%	76.17%
0.1 , 0.5 , 1.0	0.59%	1.56%	3.77%	6.80%	11.09%	4.94%	76.28%
0.1 , 0.6 , 0.7	0.59%	1.53%	3.66%	6.67%	11.03%	4.85%	76.39%
0.1 , 0.6 , 0.8	0.61%	1.57%	3.73%	6.74%	11.05%	4.89%	76.39%
0.1 , 0.6 , 0.9	0.60%	1.59%	3.78%	6.78%	11.08%	4.94%	76.06%
0.1 , 0.6 , 1.0	0.61%	1.61%	3.82%	6.89%	11.18%	4.99%	76.01%
0.1 , 0.7 , 0.8	0.61%	1.60%	3.79%	6.77%	11.12%	4.94%	75.95%
0.1 , 0.7 , 0.9	0.59%	1.60%	3.83%	6.83%	11.13%	4.99%	75.90%
0.1 , 0.7 , 1.0	0.60%	1.63%	3.89%	6.98%	11.23%	5.05%	75.63%
0.1 , 0.8 , 0.9	0.60%	1.65%	3.88%	6.96%	11.30%	5.05%	75.90%
0.1 , 0.8 , 1.0	0.63%	1.68%	3.96%	7.07%	11.34%	5.12%	75.42%
0.1 , 0.9 , 1.0	0.63%	1.77%	4.08%	7.13%	11.47%	5.19%	74.88%
0.2 , 0.3 , 0.4	0.58%	1.51%	3.62%	6.62%	10.92%	4.77%	77.08%
0.2 , 0.3 , 0.5	0.58%	1.48%	3.56%	6.60%	10.94%	4.77%	76.98%
0.2 , 0.3 , 0.6	0.57%	1.47%	3.58%	6.50%	10.99%	4.77%	77.25%
0.2 , 0.3 , 0.7	0.58%	1.50%	3.57%	6.52%	11.06%	4.79%	76.87%
0.2 , 0.3 , 0.8	0.55%	1.52%	3.59%	6.53%	11.18%	4.81%	76.92%
0.2 , 0.3 , 0.9	0.54%	1.54%	3.64%	6.56%	11.17%	4.84%	77.19%
0.2 , 0.3 , 1.0	0.55%	1.59%	3.71%	6.66%	11.17%	4.88%	77.14%
0.2 , 0.4 , 0.5	0.58%	1.50%	3.56%	6.57%	11.00%	4.78%	77.08%
0.2 , 0.4 , 0.6	0.59%	1.50%	3.57%	6.57%	11.07%	4.79%	77.14%
0.2 , 0.4 , 0.7	0.64%	1.52%	3.59%	6.58%	11.09%	4.82%	76.92%
0.2 , 0.4 , 0.8	0.61%	1.54%	3.61%	6.66%	11.11%	4.85%	76.82%
0.2 , 0.4 , 0.9	0.62%	1.57%	3.67%	6.77%	11.15%	4.88%	76.76%
0.2 , 0.4 , 1.0	0.62%	1.60%	3.73%	6.81%	11.15%	4.92%	76.39%
0.2 , 0.5 , 0.6	0.64%	1.54%	3.60%	6.60%	11.08%	4.82%	76.60%
0.2 , 0.5 , 0.7	0.63%	1.54%	3.64%	6.67%	11.18%	4.85%	76.60%
0.2 , 0.5 , 0.8	0.66%	1.56%	3.66%	6.80%	11.21%	4.89%	76.60%
0.2 , 0.5 , 0.9	0.64%	1.57%	3.71%	6.83%	11.20%	4.93%	76.28%
0.2 , 0.5 , 1.0	0.61%	1.60%	3.82%	6.92%	11.23%	4.97%	76.33%
0.2 , 0.6 , 0.7	0.65%	1.55%	3.67%	6.81%	11.22%	4.89%	76.44%
0.2 , 0.6 , 0.8	0.65%	1.58%	3.71%	6.85%	11.24%	4.94%	76.39%
0.2 , 0.6 , 0.9	0.63%	1.61%	3.79%	6.95%	11.25%	4.98%	76.12%
0.2 , 0.6 , 1.0	0.61%	1.63%	3.88%	7.01%	11.32%	5.03%	76.17%
0.2 , 0.7 , 0.8	0.68%	1.60%	3.83%	6.96%	11.25%	4.99%	76.06%
0.2 , 0.7 , 0.9	0.65%	1.63%	3.91%	7.03%	11.33%	5.03%	76.01%
0.2 , 0.7 , 1.0	0.64%	1.67%	3.92%	7.05%	11.34%	5.09%	75.90%
0.2 , 0.8 , 0.9	0.63%	1.68%	3.92%	7.08%	11.40%	5.10%	76.01%
0.2 , 0.8 , 1.0	0.68%	1.72%	3.98%	7.19%	11.41%	5.16%	75.63%
0.2 , 0.9 , 1.0	0.67%	1.80%	4.09%	7.26%	11.46%	5.23%	75.09%
0.3 , 0.4 , 0.5	0.63%	1.56%	3.64%	6.67%	11.08%	4.82%	76.82%
0.3 , 0.4 , 0.6	0.65%	1.57%	3.63%	6.68%	11.12%	4.84%	76.44%
0.3 , 0.4 , 0.7	0.62%	1.57%	3.64%	6.73%	11.24%	4.87%	76.44%
0.3 , 0.4 , 0.8	0.63%	1.58%	3.66%	6.83%	11.27%	4.90%	76.44%
0.3 , 0.4 , 0.9	0.62%	1.59%	3.70%	6.89%	11.29%	4.93%	76.44%
0.3 , 0.4 , 1.0	0.62%	1.59%	3.76%	6.97%	11.29%	4.97%	75.95%
0.3 , 0.5 , 0.6	0.61%	1.57%	3.66%	6.74%	11.27%	4.88%	76.60%
0.3 , 0.5 , 0.7	0.65%	1.60%	3.65%	6.83%	11.30%	4.91%	76.39%
0.3 , 0.5 , 0.8	0.64%	1.61%	3.72%	6.94%	11.33%	4.95%	76.28%
0.3 , 0.5 , 0.9	0.63%	1.61%	3.77%	6.99%	11.30%	4.99%	75.95%
0.3 , 0.5 , 1.0	0.61%	1.64%	3.83%	7.11%	11.31%	5.03%	76.01%
0.3 , 0.6 , 0.7	0.62%	1.62%	3.73%	6.92%	11.33%	4.96%	76.22%
0.3 , 0.6 , 0.8	0.63%	1.61%	3.83%	7.03%	11.34%	5.00%	75.95%
0.3 , 0.6 , 0.9	0.65%	1.61%	3.86%	7.10%	11.30%	5.05%	76.17%
0.3 , 0.6 , 1.0	0.64%	1.67%	3.91%	7.18%	11.42%	5.10%	76.28%
0.3 , 0.7 , 0.8	0.64%	1.65%	3.87%	7.10%	11.33%	5.06%	76.28%
0.3 , 0.7 , 0.9	0.62%	1.69%	3.94%	7.13%	11.40%	5.11%	75.95%
0.3 , 0.7 , 1.0	0.63%	1.71%	3.98%	7.23%	11.48%	5.17%	76.22%
0.3 , 0.8 , 0.9	0.62%	1.73%	4.01%	7.25%	11.44%	5.17%	76.01%
0.3 , 0.8 , 1.0	0.65%	1.78%	4.02%	7.34%	11.53%	5.24%	75.79%
0.3 , 0.9 , 1.0	0.65%	1.85%	4.10%	7.37%	11.60%	5.31%	75.31%
0.4 , 0.5 , 0.6	0.64%	1.63%	3.69%	6.85%	11.40%	4.94%	76.28%
0.4 , 0.5 , 0.7	0.61%	1.62%	3.72%	6.96%	11.33%	4.98%	76.17%
0.4 , 0.5 , 0.8	0.63%	1.62%	3.78%	7.06%	11.38%	5.02%	75.79%
0.4 , 0.5 , 0.9	0.61%	1.66%	3.83%	7.16%	11.36%	5.06%	75.95%
0.4 , 0.5 , 1.0	0.60%	1.67%	3.89%	7.20%	11.39%	5.11%	76.01%
0.4 , 0.6 , 0.7	0.62%	1.64%	3.77%	7.10%	11.56%	5.03%	75.69%
0.4 , 0.6 , 0.8	0.63%	1.67%	3.81%	7.18%	11.42%	5.08%	76.12%
0.4 , 0.6 , 0.9	0.60%	1.69%	3.91%	7.25%	11.42%	5.13%	76.12%
0.4 , 0.6 , 1.0	0.60%	1.73%	3.95%	7.27%	11.49%	5.18%	75.90%
0.4 , 0.7 , 0.8	0.62%	1.71%	3.91%	7.23%	11.40%	5.14%	76.17%
0.4 , 0.7 , 0.9	0.58%	1.75%	4.00%	7.29%	11.47%	5.19%	75.58%
0.4 , 0.7 , 1.0	0.57%	1.79%	4.03%	7.36%	11.60%	5.25%	75.52%
0.4 , 0.8 , 0.9	0.60%	1.79%	4.06%	7.35%	11.61%	5.26%	75.36%
0.4 , 0.8 , 1.0	0.64%	1.87%	4.08%	7.43%	11.75%	5.33%	75.31%
0.4 , 0.9 , 1.0	0.69%	1.89%	4.14%	7.49%	11.84%	5.40%	75.15%
0.5 , 0.6 , 0.7	0.63%	1.72%	3.82%	7.15%	11.53%	5.11%	76.01%
0.5 , 0.6 , 0.8	0.65%	1.72%	3.89%	7.24%	11.43%	5.16%	76.12%
0.5 , 0.6 , 0.9	0.61%	1.75%	3.99%	7.34%	11.51%	5.21%	75.74%
0.5 , 0.6 , 1.0	0.61%	1.78%	4.05%	7.33%	11.60%	5.27%	75.42%
0.5 , 0.7 , 0.8	0.66%	1.76%	3.97%	7.34%	11.60%	5.22%	75.63%
0.5 , 0.7 , 0.9	0.60%	1.80%	4.04%	7.33%	11.64%	5.28%	75.31%
0.5 , 0.7 , 1.0	0.62%	1.87%	4.14%	7.41%	11.74%	5.34%	75.09%
0.5 , 0.8 , 0.9	0.62%	1.89%	4.12%	7.41%	11.75%	5.35%	74.99%
0.5 , 0.8 , 1.0	0.65%	1.93%	4.15%	7.51%	11.84%	5.42%	74.88%
0.5 , 0.9 , 1.0	0.69%	1.98%	4.21%	7.60%	12.04%	5.50%	74.61%
0.6 , 0.7 , 0.8	0.67%	1.79%	4.03%	7.38%	11.66%	5.31%	75.31%
0.6 , 0.7 , 0.9	0.62%	1.88%	4.14%	7.41%	11.77%	5.37%	75.04%
0.6 , 0.7 , 1.0	0.63%	1.93%	4.17%	7.48%	11.87%	5.43%	74.88%
0.6 , 0.8 , 0.9	0.67%	1.94%	4.20%	7.50%	11.91%	5.45%	74.99%
0.6 , 0.8 , 1.0	0.71%	1.95%	4.24%	7.56%	12.04%	5.52%	74.72%
0.6 , 0.9 , 1.0	0.73%	2.01%	4.29%	7.70%	12.17%	5.60%	73.80%
0.7 , 0.8 , 0.9	0.74%	1.99%	4.26%	7.60%	12.05%	5.53%	74.61%
0.7 , 0.8 , 1.0	0.75%	2.01%	4.31%	7.74%	12.11%	5.61%	73.96%
0.7 , 0.9 , 1.0	0.79%	2.04%	4.38%	7.89%	12.28%	5.69%	73.43%
0.8 , 0.9 , 1.0	0.81%	2.10%	4.46%	7.96%	12.54%	5.79%	72.94%

LegendShow

N	variables for calculating pot values
P₁₀	the 10^th percentile of ABS( VF% - FEV% )
P₂₅	the 25^th percentile of ABS( VF% - FEV% )
P₅₀	the 50^th percentile of ABS( VF% - FEV% )
P₇₅	the 75^th percentile of ABS( VF% - FEV% )
P₉₀	the 90^th percentile of ABS( VF% - FEV% )
AVG	the average of ABS( VF% - FEV% )
W%	winning percentage of the expected winners

	M	W	W%		M	W	W%
2018	1859	1434	77.14%	2017	1791	1613	90.06%
Female	921	703	76.33%	Female	890	808	90.79%
Male	921	723	78.50%	Male	890	797	89.55%
Seasonal	17	8	47.06%	Seasonal	11	8	72.73%
Topaz	480	423	88.13%	Topaz	480	450	93.75%
Female	240	209	87.08%	Female	240	224	93.33%
Male	240	214	89.17%	Male	240	226	94.17%
Amethyst	368	286	77.72%	Amethyst	368	342	92.93%
Female	184	138	75.00%	Female	184	172	93.48%
Male	184	148	80.43%	Male	184	170	92.39%
Sapphire	300	227	75.67%	Sapphire	300	274	91.33%
Female	150	114	76.00%	Female	150	141	94.00%
Male	150	113	75.33%	Male	150	133	88.67%
Emerald	240	175	72.92%	Emerald	240	216	90.00%
Female	120	87	72.50%	Female	120	111	92.50%
Male	120	88	73.33%	Male	120	105	87.50%
Ruby	204	142	69.61%	Ruby	180	158	87.78%
Female	102	70	68.63%	Female	90	76	84.44%
Male	102	72	70.59%	Male	90	82	91.11%
Diamond	132	98	74.24%	Diamond	120	98	81.67%
Female	66	47	71.21%	Female	60	52	86.67%
Male	66	51	77.27%	Male	60	46	76.67%
Elimination	118	75	63.56%	Elimination	92	67	72.83%
Female	59	38	64.41%	Female	46	32	69.57%
Male	59	37	62.71%	Male	46	35	76.09%

50% ≤ FEV% < 51%	261	144	55.17%	50% ≤ FEV% < 51%	170	105	61.76%
51% ≤ FEV% < 52%	230	136	59.13%	51% ≤ FEV% < 52%	166	119	71.69%
52% ≤ FEV% < 53%	222	151	68.02%	52% ≤ FEV% < 53%	192	164	85.42%
53% ≤ FEV% < 54%	193	144	74.61%	53% ≤ FEV% < 54%	198	181	91.41%
54% ≤ FEV% < 55%	191	162	84.82%	54% ≤ FEV% < 55%	179	173	96.65%
55% ≤ FEV% < 56%	156	136	87.18%	55% ≤ FEV% < 56%	193	181	93.78%
56% ≤ FEV% < 57%	100	91	91.00%	56% ≤ FEV% < 57%	154	152	98.70%
57% ≤ FEV% < 58%	117	102	87.18%	57% ≤ FEV% < 58%	112	112	100.00%
58% ≤ FEV% < 59%	98	91	92.86%	58% ≤ FEV% < 59%	114	114	100.00%
59% ≤ FEV% < 60%	84	74	88.10%	59% ≤ FEV% < 60%	86	86	100.00%
60% ≤ FEV% < 61%	70	68	97.14%	60% ≤ FEV% < 61%	85	85	100.00%
61% ≤ FEV% < 62%	48	46	95.83%	61% ≤ FEV% < 62%	66	67	98.51%
62% ≤ FEV%	89	89	100.00%	62% ≤ FEV%	75	75	100.00%

50% ≤ FEV% < 51%Show

2018	M	W	W%	2017	M	W	W%
50.0% ≤ FEV% < 50.2%	55	26	47.27%	50.0% ≤ FEV% < 50.2%	21	40	52.50%
50.2% ≤ FEV% < 50.4%	52	27	51.92%	50.2% ≤ FEV% < 50.4%	25	42	59.52%
50.4% ≤ FEV% < 50.6%	44	28	63.64%	50.4% ≤ FEV% < 50.6%	18	31	58.06%
50.6% ≤ FEV% < 50.8%	49	25	51.02%	50.6% ≤ FEV% < 50.8%	21	30	70.00%
50.8% ≤ FEV% < 51.0%	61	38	62.30%	50.8% ≤ FEV% < 51.0%	20	27	74.07%

Unexpected matchesShow

(top ten FEV% with the premise that the expected winner lost the match)

	FEV%	Contestant	VF	VF	Opponent	Z-score
ISML 2018
Sapphire 2	61.61%	Tokisaki Kurumi	2902	3865	Sakura Chiyo	7.7
Sapphire 4	61.05%	Chtholly Nota Seniorious	2452	2552	Matō Sakura	3.1
Amethyst 5	60.57%	Yūki Asuna	4136	4623	Nagato Yuki	3.1
Sapphire 5	60.14%	Kinomoto Sakura	4109	5862	Jibril	8.0
Amethyst 7	60.00%	Nishimiya Shōko	4561	7156	Izumi Sagiri	5.6
Sapphire 4	59.97%	Rem	2561	2955	Nagato Yuki	3.4
Amethyst 4	59.94%	Tōru	3152	3279	Jibril	5.3
Amethyst 6	59.88%	Yukinoshita Yukino	5772	6320	Kitashirakawa Tamako	4.0
Emerald 2	59.83%	Archer	10198	10337	Kanda Sorata	6.7
Amethyst 4	59.73%	Yukihira Sōma	2534	2620	Hei	4.8
ISML 2017
Emerald 1	61.23%	Saitama	964	1336	Natsume Takashi	4.3
Sapphire 10	56.44%	Shiba Tatsuya	1301	1330	Yagami Light	4.8
Elimination 2	56.22%	Saitama	1550	1782	Gilgamesh	3.0
Sapphire 9	55.84%	Katsuragi Keima	894	979	Dazai Osamu	5.0
Amethyst 11	55.77%	Isla	1074	1170	Beatrice	7.9
Ruby 6	55.76%	Yūki Asuna	1939	2640	Saber	4.7
Sapphire 5	55.75%	Satomi Rentarō	798	932	Dazai Osamu	10.3
Diamond 2	55.66%	Saber	1651	1683	Kafū Chino	2.1
Topaz 15	55.63%	Shiro	1475	1667	Sakura Chiyo	2.5
Amethyst 10	55.48%	Kyon	829	1117	Edogawa Conan	7.1

RematchesShow

Topaz 6	Ainz Ooal Gown	3187	Kyon	2619
Diamond 3	Ainz Ooal Gown	13260	Kyon	12041
Aquamarine 11	Ainz Ooal Gown	4137	Willem Kmetsch	3709
Diamond 4	Ainz Ooal Gown	13976	Willem Kmetsch	14598
Aquamarine 13	Aisaka Taiga	5083	Illyasviel von Einzbern	5376
Ruby 5	Aisaka Taiga	15056	Illyasviel von Einzbern	16419
Ruby 1	Aisaka Taiga	9515	Kitashirakawa Tamako	9792
Elimination 3	Aisaka Taiga	18136	Kitashirakawa Tamako	15909
Amethyst 2	Akabane Karma	2989	Natsuki Subaru	2378
Diamond 5	Akabane Karma	13642	Natsuki Subaru	13726
Emerald 4	Akabane Karma	9064	Riku Dola	9740
Diamond 4	Akabane Karma	12369	Riku Dola	14839
Topaz 10	Akabane Karma	4914	Saitama	4897
Diamond 1	Akabane Karma	12144	Saitama	12439
Amethyst 8	Akabane Karma	2536	Shiota Nagisa	4172
Diamond 2	Akabane Karma	11656	Shiota Nagisa	13523
Amethyst 7	Aoyama Nanami	6383	Emilia	4709
Emerald 2	Aoyama Nanami	10976	Emilia	9129
Ruby 3	Aoyama Nanami	12825	Takanashi Rikka	17536
Elimination 8	Aoyama Nanami	20986	Takanashi Rikka	26978
Sapphire 5	Aoyama Nanami	3698	Tōsaka Rin	5543
Elimination 6	Aoyama Nanami	21923	Tōsaka Rin	20452
Topaz 6	Aoyama Nanami	2456	Yukinoshita Yukino	5029
Ruby 1	Aoyama Nanami	8765	Yukinoshita Yukino	11483
Emerald 3	Archer	10028	Astolfo	8330
Diamond 3	Archer	13169	Astolfo	11724
Diamond 5	Archer	8738	Hikigaya Hachiman	19772
Elimination 8	Archer	15990	Hikigaya Hachiman	35856
Diamond 1	Astolfo	10098	Hikigaya Hachiman	16255
Elimination 1	Astolfo	9928	Hikigaya Hachiman	25960
Amethyst 1	Astolfo	1759	Ishida Shōya	2791
Diamond 5	Astolfo	13702	Ishida Shōya	13552
Sapphire 2	Astolfo	2387	Kamijō Tōma	2943
Elimination 8	Astolfo	21382	Kamijō Tōma	23057
Topaz 10	Astolfo	2755	Riku Dola	6125
Ruby 2	Astolfo	11094	Riku Dola	7785
Aquamarine 7	Astolfo	3310	Yato	3361
Ruby 1	Astolfo	9390	Yato	8445
Sapphire 6	Chtholly Nota Seniorious	9220	Furukawa Nagisa	4660
Diamond 3	Chtholly Nota Seniorious	9595	Furukawa Nagisa	8594
Amethyst 8	Chtholly Nota Seniorious	8119	Illyasviel von Einzbern	2768
Elimination 2	Chtholly Nota Seniorious	17285	Illyasviel von Einzbern	15816
Aquamarine 12	Chtholly Nota Seniorious	5391	Megumin	2391
Ruby 2	Chtholly Nota Seniorious	10637	Megumin	9980
Ruby 5	Chtholly Nota Seniorious	18604	Shiina Mashiro	15230
Elimination 8	Chtholly Nota Seniorious	23193	Shiina Mashiro	22910
Sapphire 7	Chtholly Nota Seniorious	7957	Takanashi Rikka	5516
Elimination 7	Chtholly Nota Seniorious	22804	Takanashi Rikka	20650
Emerald 5	Daidōji Tomoyo	10731	Tomori Nao	11513
Elimination 4	Daidōji Tomoyo	15309	Tomori Nao	16201
Emerald 5	Edward Elric	9667	Kaneki Ken	10855
Elimination 3	Edward Elric	16457	Kaneki Ken	15665
Ruby 4	Emilia	22292	Nibutani Shinka	19111
Elimination 3	Emilia	20254	Nibutani Shinka	12780
Emerald 4	Emilia	8131	Nishimiya Shōko	10737
Diamond 4	Emilia	16983	Nishimiya Shōko	17276
Emerald 1	Emilia	10406	Saber	8158
Elimination 7	Emilia	22341	Saber	21397
Ruby 5	Emilia	17384	Shiro	15000
Elimination 8	Emilia	28693	Shiro	17376
Emerald 3	Emilia	8425	Yuigahama Yui	12665
Diamond 5	Emilia	15765	Yuigahama Yui	15006
Topaz 10	Emiya Kiritsugu	3763	Ishida Shōya	4740
Elimination 6	Emiya Kiritsugu	21018	Ishida Shōya	19250
Amethyst 8	Emiya Kiritsugu	3773	Kamijō Tōma	3675
Diamond 5	Emiya Kiritsugu	13738	Kamijō Tōma	13666
Emerald 1	Emiya Kiritsugu	8910	Saitama	9938
Elimination 5	Emiya Kiritsugu	15722	Saitama	16029
Ruby 5	Emiya Kiritsugu	15711	Yato	15197
Elimination 2	Emiya Kiritsugu	14559	Yato	14270
Diamond 4	Emiya Shirō	10882	Hikigaya Hachiman	17331
Elimination 5	Emiya Shirō	6767	Hikigaya Hachiman	27047
Sapphire 6	Emiya Shirō	5006	Ishida Shōya	5582
Diamond 3	Emiya Shirō	12801	Ishida Shōya	11778
Sapphire 5	Eren Yeager	2301	Levi	7334
Diamond 1	Eren Yeager	11185	Levi	15567
Amethyst 4	Eren Yeager	3822	Natsume Takashi	2746
Ruby 3	Eren Yeager	13486	Natsume Takashi	13349
Emerald 4	Eren Yeager	8795	Okabe Rintarō	11099
Diamond 3	Eren Yeager	8537	Okabe Rintarō	17932
Topaz 8	Eren Yeager	2595	Togashi Yūta	4311
Diamond 2	Eren Yeager	12320	Togashi Yūta	13855
Topaz 10	Eren Yeager	5019	Uchiha Itachi	4382
Ruby 5	Eren Yeager	15819	Uchiha Itachi	15515
Ruby 2	Erythrocyte	10295	Tsuyuzaki Mahiru	9660
Ruby 6	Erythrocyte	16722	Tsuyuzaki Mahiru	12921
Emerald 2	Furukawa Nagisa	10610	Makise Kurisu	10115
Diamond 5	Furukawa Nagisa	11991	Makise Kurisu	19778
Ruby 3	Furukawa Nagisa	13953	Shiro	15640
Diamond 4	Furukawa Nagisa	14309	Shiro	16646
Topaz 9	Furukawa Nagisa	4619	Tōru	4643
Ruby 4	Furukawa Nagisa	18481	Tōru	18040
Amethyst 3	Gilgamesh	2102	Kyon	2153
Diamond 1	Gilgamesh	12147	Kyon	14338
Topaz 8	Gilgamesh	3802	Todoroki Shōto	3134
Elimination 3	Gilgamesh	13541	Todoroki Shōto	19809
Aquamarine 3	Heiwajima Shizuo	1883	Kamijō Tōma	3283
Emerald 3	Heiwajima Shizuo	9492	Kamijō Tōma	13026
Ruby 3	Hikigaya Hachiman	18405	Ishida Shōya	10654
Diamond 2	Hikigaya Hachiman	16871	Ishida Shōya	10189
Topaz 9	Hikigaya Hachiman	7093	Kaneki Ken	2962
Ruby 1	Hikigaya Hachiman	9903	Kaneki Ken	8530
Aquamarine 2	Izumi Sagiri	4157	Kōsaka Reina	2846
Diamond 5	Izumi Sagiri	17631	Kōsaka Reina	10035
Emerald 4	Izumi Sagiri	11735	Tokisaki Kurumi	10174
Diamond 4	Izumi Sagiri	14123	Tokisaki Kurumi	14217
Aquamarine 11	Kamijō Tōma	3789	Todoroki Shōto	3319
Ruby 3	Kamijō Tōma	12377	Todoroki Shōto	14206
Topaz 7	Kanna Kamui	6099	Kuriyama Mirai	2467
Ruby 3	Kanna Kamui	18947	Kuriyama Mirai	12015
Ruby 4	Kasumigaoka Utaha	18054	Nakano Azusa	16170
Elimination 2	Kasumigaoka Utaha	14074	Nakano Azusa	15294
Amethyst 7	Kasumigaoka Utaha	3402	Tokisaki Kurumi	5359
Ruby 3	Kasumigaoka Utaha	14646	Tokisaki Kurumi	17410
Amethyst 2	Kinomoto Sakura	3458	Kitashirakawa Tamako	2679
Diamond 4	Kinomoto Sakura	13455	Kitashirakawa Tamako	15669
Ruby 5	Kinomoto Sakura	15512	Nakano Azusa	17847
Diamond 1	Kinomoto Sakura	16659	Nakano Azusa	13182
Amethyst 8	Kinomoto Sakura	3770	Yukinoshita Yukino	5521
Elimination 2	Kinomoto Sakura	13076	Yukinoshita Yukino	18113
Emerald 4	Kitashirakawa Tamako	10903	Takanashi Rikka	7992
Diamond 2	Kitashirakawa Tamako	12108	Takanashi Rikka	14563
Amethyst 2	Kōsaka Reina	2654	Saber	3359
Diamond 4	Kōsaka Reina	13115	Saber	15776
Amethyst 6	Kōsaka Reina	4048	Takanashi Rikka	6960
Ruby 4	Kōsaka Reina	18838	Takanashi Rikka	17371
Ruby 1	Kuriyama Mirai	9642	Nagato Yuki	10002
Elimination 4	Kuriyama Mirai	15859	Nagato Yuki	15131
Amethyst 5	Kuriyama Mirai	4187	Sakura Chiyo	3002
Ruby 4	Kuriyama Mirai	16157	Sakura Chiyo	19230
Sapphire 5	Kyon	4121	Midoriya Izuku	4725
Ruby 5	Kyon	15666	Midoriya Izuku	15335
Aquamarine 11	Kyon	2624	Shiota Nagisa	4796
Ruby 1	Kyon	8810	Shiota Nagisa	9207
Emerald 4	Kyon	8901	Willem Kmetsch	10230
Diamond 5	Kyon	12332	Willem Kmetsch	14964
Topaz 9	Levi	6185	Natsuki Subaru	3568
Ruby 1	Levi	9680	Natsuki Subaru	9040
Topaz 7	Levi	4355	Okazaki Tomoya	2480
Diamond 3	Levi	19781	Okazaki Tomoya	5975
Elimination 4	Levi	24390	Okazaki Tomoya	11230
Amethyst 2	Li Syaoran	1667	Natsume Takashi	3200
Elimination 8	Li Syaoran	21280	Natsume Takashi	22791
Sapphire 3	Makise Kurisu	2815	Nakano Azusa	4290
Elimination 6	Makise Kurisu	22837	Nakano Azusa	17566
Sapphire 4	Midoriya Izuku	2169	Tachibana Taki	2365
Elimination 3	Midoriya Izuku	15855	Tachibana Taki	16326
Aquamarine 7	Nagato Yuki	3659	Sakura Chiyo	2733
Ruby 5	Nagato Yuki	15117	Sakura Chiyo	16370
Emerald 3	Nakano Azusa	10207	Shiina Mashiro	12788
Diamond 4	Nakano Azusa	13440	Shiina Mashiro	16348
Aquamarine 13	Natsuki Subaru	3796	Natsume Takashi	4177
Elimination 4	Natsuki Subaru	14967	Natsume Takashi	16378
Sapphire 3	Natsuki Subaru	2682	Saiki Kusuo	2825
Ruby 2	Natsuki Subaru	10227	Saiki Kusuo	9309
Emerald 4	Natsuki Subaru	9206	Saitama	9698
Diamond 4	Natsuki Subaru	13867	Saitama	11685
Amethyst 7	Natsuki Subaru	3199	Shiota Nagisa	5192
Diamond 1	Natsuki Subaru	12347	Shiota Nagisa	14924
Topaz 5	Nibutani Shinka	2707	Rem	3927
Ruby 1	Nibutani Shinka	6737	Rem	12895
Amethyst 3	Nibutani Shinka	2220	Tōru	2816
Ruby 3	Nibutani Shinka	13509	Tōru	14003
Emerald 2	Nishimiya Shōko	11348	Yuigahama Yui	8509
Diamond 3	Nishimiya Shōko	13448	Yuigahama Yui	12782
Diamond 4	Okabe Rintarō	14690	Todoroki Shōto	12391
Elimination 8	Okabe Rintarō	25501	Todoroki Shōto	19323
Sapphire 3	Orihara Izaya	1938	Yato	3258
Ruby 4	Orihara Izaya	12870	Yato	15270
Diamond 5	Rem	14348	Shiina Mashiro	13187
Elimination 7	Rem	27005	Shiina Mashiro	18441
Ruby 4	Rem	24319	Shiro	12636
Elimination 6	Rem	31391	Shiro	12240
Amethyst 6	Riku Dola	4692	Willem Kmetsch	3877
Elimination 3	Riku Dola	22407	Willem Kmetsch	15794
Ruby 1	Saber	10093	Tōsaka Rin	11247
Elimination 8	Saber	20811	Tōsaka Rin	23663
Diamond 3	Saber	6358	Yūki Asuna	9306
Elimination 4	Saber	14612	Yūki Asuna	18094
Diamond 3	Saitama	9495	Shiota Nagisa	15257
Elimination 2	Saitama	14362	Shiota Nagisa	14449
Amethyst 2	Saitama	2576	Takasu Ryūji	2591
Ruby 3	Saitama	13640	Takasu Ryūji	13353
Sapphire 2	Sakura Chiyo	3865	Tokisaki Kurumi	2902
Elimination 1	Sakura Chiyo	17586	Tokisaki Kurumi	17297
Amethyst 5	Satō Kazuma	3103	Uchiha Itachi	3069
Elimination 3	Satō Kazuma	17179	Uchiha Itachi	14540
Sapphire 5	Schwi Dola	5155	Yuigahama Yui	3903
Elimination 1	Schwi Dola	14674	Yuigahama Yui	13883
Amethyst 5	Shiina Mashiro	4052	Yuigahama Yui	3910
Ruby 3	Shiina Mashiro	15347	Yuigahama Yui	15132
Amethyst 5	Shiota Nagisa	4069	Todoroki Shōto	2415
Elimination 7	Shiota Nagisa	20298	Todoroki Shōto	21069
Sapphire 6	Shiota Nagisa	6525	Willem Kmetsch	4891
Elimination 8	Shiota Nagisa	23125	Willem Kmetsch	21179
Topaz 10	Takasu Ryūji	3432	Togashi Yūta	5016
Elimination 4	Takasu Ryūji	14967	Togashi Yūta	15827
Sapphire 2	Togashi Yūta	2873	Willem Kmetsch	2889
Elimination 7	Togashi Yūta	20750	Willem Kmetsch	20977

Ennadai · Post by **Ennadai** » Tue Dec 24, 2019 4:30 pm

ISML 2019

Unexpected matchesShow

	FEV%	Contestant	VF	VF	Opponent	Z-score
Diamond 1	40.81%	Nakano Azusa	9680	9671	Tōsaka Rin	4.1
Amethyst 3	42.20%	Yuigahama Yui	5854	5559	Tōsaka Rin	3.0
Ruby 3	43.95%	Takanashi Rikka	7444	6226	Yukinoshita Yukino	5.1
Elimination 5	45.04%	Violet Evergarden	13329	13156	Tōsaka Rin	1.9
Diamond 3	45.60%	Shiina Mashiro	11395	11176	Tokisaki Kurumi	2.1
Amethyst 2	45.62%	Kafū Chino	5417	5351	Kanna Kamui	3.6
Emerald 2	45.69%	Okazaki Tomoya	5585	5568	Rimuru Tempest	2.0
Amethyst 3	45.71%	Dazai Osamu	4707	4401	Ayanokōji Kiyotaka	3.3
Diamond 2	45.98%	Kafū Chino	10121	8061	Schwi Dola	13.0
Ruby 2	46.36%	Lancer	5459	5408	Willem Kmetsch	3.9

RematchesShow

Ruby 3	Aisaka Taiga	6022	Yoshino	6166
Elimination 2	Aisaka Taiga	9964	Yoshino	8961
Sapphire 3	Araragi Koyomi	6537	Lancer	5662
Elimination 3	Araragi Koyomi	9227	Lancer	10109
Diamond 3	Archer	9788	Ayanokōji Kiyotaka	9478
Elimination 2	Archer	9936	Ayanokōji Kiyotaka	8865
Sapphire 1	Ayanokōji Kiyotaka	7366	Kyon	5307
Elimination 4	Ayanokōji Kiyotaka	8667	Kyon	8312
Topaz 3	Edogawa Conan	6661	Saiki Kusuo	6537
Elimination 2	Edogawa Conan	8810	Saiki Kusuo	8667
Emerald 2	Edward Elric	5180	Saiki Kusuo	4994
Elimination 1	Edward Elric	9068	Saiki Kusuo	9026
Ruby 1	Emilia	6613	Akiyama Mio	5613
Elimination 2	Emilia	10608	Akiyama Mio	9774
Amethyst 1	Illyasviel von Einzbern	5047	Alice Zuberg	5033
Diamond 4	Illyasviel von Einzbern	9304	Alice Zuberg	9069
Diamond 2	Izumi Sagiri	10547	Takanashi Rikka	9443
Elimination 4	Izumi Sagiri	9623	Takanashi Rikka	9647
Sapphire 1	Kanda Sorata	6280	Edogawa Conan	6364
Elimination 1	Kanda Sorata	9326	Edogawa Conan	8853
Amethyst 2	Kanna Kamui	5351	Kafū Chino	5417
Elimination 4	Kanna Kamui	9908	Kafū Chino	9055
Emerald 2	Kanna Kamui	5951	Nakano Azusa	5703
Elimination 1	Kanna Kamui	10459	Nakano Azusa	10309
Diamond 3	Lancer	9651	Natsuki Subaru	9382
Elimination 2	Lancer	9110	Natsuki Subaru	8540
Ruby 3	Levi	6389	Emiya Shirō	4987
Elimination 2	Levi	9730	Emiya Shirō	9105
~~Emerald 3~~	~~Misaka Mikoto~~	~~6951~~	~~Tachibana Kanade~~	~~5994~~
~~Diamond 4~~	~~Misaka Mikoto~~	~~9399~~	~~Tachibana Kanade~~	~~9448~~
Emerald 2	Natsuki Subaru	5416	Araragi Koyomi	4999
Elimination 1	Natsuki Subaru	9380	Araragi Koyomi	8634
Sapphire 2	Natsume Takashi	6014	Arima Kōsei	5036
Diamond 3	Natsume Takashi	9582	Arima Kōsei	9068
Aquamarine 2	Natsume Takashi	5592	Takasu Ryūji	4270
Elimination 2	Natsume Takashi	9204	Takasu Ryūji	7929
Emerald 2	Rimuru Tempest	5568	Okazaki Tomoya	5585
Elimination 4	Rimuru Tempest	9429	Okazaki Tomoya	8902
Diamond 1	Saitama	8812	Willem Kmetsch	7849
Elimination 3	Saitama	9428	Willem Kmetsch	9671
Ruby 3	Sakurajima Mai	7366	Yūki Asuna	6639
Elimination 2	Sakurajima Mai	10807	Yūki Asuna	9576
Sapphire 2	Satō Kazuma	5545	Natsuki Subaru	5591
Elimination 4	Satō Kazuma	8300	Natsuki Subaru	8005
Amethyst 2	Sawamura Spencer Eriri	5064	Tōru	5139
Elimination 2	Sawamura Spencer Eriri	9774	Tōru	9421
Emerald 2	Schwi Dola	6030	Isshiki Iroha	5872
Elimination 4	Schwi Dola	9315	Isshiki Iroha	8914
Diamond 1	Schwi Dola	9570	Takagi	9488
Elimination 2	Schwi Dola	10261	Takagi	9160
Ruby 1	Schwi Dola	6302	Yoshino	5085
Elimination 1	Schwi Dola	11268	Yoshino	9587
Sapphire 2	Shiro	6826	Aisaka Taiga	5877
Elimination 3	Shiro	11251	Aisaka Taiga	10199
Emerald 1	Shiro	6114	Index L. Prohibitorum	5839
Elimination 1	Shiro	11261	Index L. Prohibitorum	9687
Ruby 3	Takagi	7155	Megumin	5467
Elimination 1	Takagi	10675	Megumin	10277
Diamond 1	Takanashi Rikka	9690	Emilia	10517
Elimination 5	Takanashi Rikka	14057	Emilia	12336
Ruby 3	Takanashi Rikka	7444	Yukinoshita Yukino	6226
Elimination 1	Takanashi Rikka	11565	Yukinoshita Yukino	9485
Sapphire 2	Tokisaki Kurumi	7026	Isshiki Iroha	5888
Elimination 1	Tokisaki Kurumi	11388	Isshiki Iroha	10540
Topaz 3	Tōsaka Rin	10588	Kafū Chino	4703
Elimination 2	Tōsaka Rin	13690	Kafū Chino	7127

Ennadai · Post by **Ennadai** » Tue Dec 24, 2019 6:30 pm

	M	W	W%		M	W	W%
2019	786	644	81.93%	2018	1859	1434	77.14%
Female	385	318	82.60%	Female	921	703	76.33%
Male	385	312	81.04%	Male	921	723	78.50%
ToC	16	14	87.50%
Topaz	64	49	76.56%	Topaz	480	423	88.13%
Female	32	27	84.38%	Female	240	209	87.08%
Male	32	22	68.75%	Male	240	214	89.17%
Amethyst	168	142	84.52%	Amethyst	368	286	77.72%
Female	84	70	83.33%	Female	184	138	75.00%
Male	84	72	85.71%	Male	184	148	80.43%
Sapphire	144	122	84.72%	Sapphire	300	227	75.67%
Female	72	58	80.56%	Female	150	114	76.00%
Male	72	64	88.89%	Male	150	113	75.33%
Emerald	120	110	91.67%	Emerald	240	175	72.92%
Female	60	57	95.00%	Female	120	87	72.50%
Male	60	53	88.33%	Male	120	88	73.33%
Ruby	96	79	82.29%	Ruby	204	142	69.61%
Female	48	40	83.33%	Female	102	70	68.63%
Male	48	39	81.25%	Male	102	72	70.59%
Diamond	80	65	81.25%	Diamond	132	98	74.24%
Female	40	33	82.50%	Female	66	47	71.21%
Male	40	32	80.00%	Male	66	51	77.27%
Elimination	98	63	64.29%	Elimination	118	75	63.56%
Female	49	33	67.35%	Female	59	38	64.41%
Male	49	30	61.22%	Male	59	37	62.71%

50% ≤ FEV% < 51%	168	102	60.71%	50% ≤ FEV% < 51%	261	144	55.17%
51% ≤ FEV% < 52%	145	109	75.17%	51% ≤ FEV% < 52%	230	136	59.13%
52% ≤ FEV% < 53%	127	104	81.89%	52% ≤ FEV% < 53%	222	151	68.02%
53% ≤ FEV% < 54%	135	127	94.07%	53% ≤ FEV% < 54%	193	144	74.61%
54% ≤ FEV% < 55%	101	95	94.06%	54% ≤ FEV% < 55%	191	162	84.82%
55% ≤ FEV% < 56%	59	59	100.00%	55% ≤ FEV% < 56%	156	136	87.18%
56% ≤ FEV% < 57%	25	24	96.00%	56% ≤ FEV% < 57%	100	91	91.00%
57% ≤ FEV% < 58%	12	11	91.67%	57% ≤ FEV% < 58%	117	102	87.18%
58% ≤ FEV% < 59%	6	6	100.00%	58% ≤ FEV% < 59%	98	91	92.86%
59% ≤ FEV% < 60%	7	6	85.71%	59% ≤ FEV% < 60%	84	74	88.10%
60% ≤ FEV%	1	1	100.00%	60% ≤ FEV%	207	203	98.07%

Candidates	Background	Artist	Character	Artist
Levi	69996956	23694308
Yukinoshita Yukino	32609135	2165451
Tokisaki Kurumi	59119039	16154485
Riku Dola	66714161	8024084
Archer	69771733	16154485
Okabe Rintarō	5224903	426711
Tōsaka Rin			53948782	12739740
Ayanokōji Kiyotaka	69618131	298993
Shiota Nagisa	66081447	10160	54882931	40699
Takasu Ryūji	62255571	16154485
Yuigahama Yui	62077235	11270864
Emiya Kiritsugu	71262931	16154485
Saber	78343908	8024084
Tomori Nao	76325407	16601961
Otonashi Yuzuru	64069285	6451805
Kyon	67475915	2165451
Yato	77409436	8024084
Gilgamesh	50752503	13340232
Isla	41809722	4906112
Eren Yeager	79492489	2053329
Otosaka Yū	72913218	16154485
Aisaka Taiga	77315982	16823482
Agatsuma Zenitsu	62449370	24185901
Ōmae Kumiko	41809722	4906112
Totsuka Saika	38285328	6559742
Shiro	65252747	16154485
Ōji Mochizō	77315982	16823482
Akemi Homura	68126514	9790122
Tomioka Giyū	50226623	2165451
Kaneki Ken	75961083	10160
Kochō Shinobu	78343908	8024084
Misaki Mei	50353806	809485
Kōsaka Reina	77315982	16823482
Sakata Gintoki	74214546	202175
Akabane Karma	64981051	16154485
Fukube Satoshi	67335608	4127417
Akasaka Ryūnosuke	56342769	211515

Candidates	Background	Artist	Character	Artist
Gokou Ruri	76127750	8024084
Hikigaya Hachiman	63417793	11270864
Katou Megumi	69430358	8024084
Korosensei	41809722	4906112
Oreki Houtarou	59225355	1511752
Sora	74319517	8024084

Modified Pot value experiment

Modified Pot value experiment

Re: Modified Pot value experiment

Re: Modified Pot value experiment

Re: Modified Pot value experiment

Re: Modified Pot value experiment

Re: Modified Pot value experiment

Re: Modified Pot value experiment

Re: Modified Pot value experiment

Re: Modified Pot value experiment