Modified Pot value experiment

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Modified Pot value experiment

Post by maglor » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:25 pm

This thread is to explain, discuss, and perhaps gather new input and analysis on the open project discussed in the following post : http://www.internationalsaimoe.com/foru ... 61#p413961" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Let's start with 2017 with character that was most talked about for the entire year, REM ( Megumi, the tiara winner, received lion-size of attention during elimination period, which, surprisingly, is typical of most Tiara winners. It actually is uncommon for #1 or 2 seed to win the elimination period )

Going into the 1st match of 2017, REM would have 100 points, just like everyone else. Her opponent Saten Ruiko also would have 100 points in her pot.

Now, since we are dealing with 3 separate percentages for the "betting amount" it may be easier to consider that every one has actually 3 pots, one titled N=0.1, another titled N=0.2, and the last titled N=0.5. All 3 pots have 100 points for both characters.

For the match Rem and Ruiko both pulls out appropriate percentage of what's inside the pot as their bets.

from N=0.1 pot, they pull out 10 on to the betting table, leaving 90 behind. N=0.1 table would have total of 10+10 = 20 points
from N=0.2 pot, they pull out 20 on to the betting table, leaving 80 behind. N=0.2 table would have total of 20+20 = 40 points
from N=0.5 pot, they pull out 50 on to the betting table, leaving 50 behind. N=0.5 table would have total of 50+50 = 100 points

The result of Aquamarine 1 match was 709 votes for Saten Ruiko and 1173 votes for Rem . Since Rem's VF% is 62.327%, she would receive 62.327% of the values on the table, while Ruiko will take the remaining 37.673%

The amount they take back is as follows

Rem take N=0.1 : 12.46546227
Rem take N=0.2 : 24.93092455
Rem take N=0.5 : 62.32731137
Ruiko take N=0.1 : 7.534537726
Ruiko take N=0.2 : 15.06907545
Ruiko take N=0.5 : 37.67268863

Note that while they contributed the same amount into the pot, they take back different amount. After they split the pot, Rem and Ruiko would both have new values for each of their three pots

Rem's new pot N=0.1 : 102.4654623
Rem's new pot N=0.2 : 104.9309245
Rem's new pot N=0.3 : 112.3273114
Ruiko's new pot N=0.1 : 97.53453773
Ruiko's new pot N=0.2 : 95.06907545
Ruiko's new pot N=0.3 : 87.67268863


Thus ended the first round.

Now, in the 2nd round Rem meets Sento Isuzu. Isuzu lost to Kōsaka Reina with VF of 49.22%. Her pot entering into Round 1 is as follows

Sento Isuzu New Pot N=0.1 : 99.84343091
Sento Isuzu New Pot N=0.2 : 99.68686181
Sento Isuzu New Pot N=0.5 : 99.21715453


We start the process again, but now, note that they contribute different amount into each pot

Into N=0.1 pot, Rem contributes 10.247, Isuzu contributes 9.984. The total for the pot is 20.23088932
Into N= 0.2 pot Rem contributes 20.986. Isuzu contributes 19.937. The total for the pot is 40.92355727
Into N=0.5 pot Rem contributes 56.164. Isuzu contributes 49.609. The total for the pot is 105.7722329

The match was 1601 to 874 in favor of Rem. Thus Rem takes 64.69% of the pot

The amount they take back is as follows

Rem take N=0.1 : 13.08672881
Rem take N=0.2 : 26.47216775
Rem take N=0.5 : 68.42074543
Isuzu take N=0.1 : 7.144160511
Isuzu take N=0.2 : 14.45138952
Isuzu take N=0.5 : 37.35148751

Their new pot values are now as follows

Rem's new pot N=0.1 : 105.3056449
Rem's new pot N=0.2 : 110.4169074
Rem's new pot N=0.3 : 124.5844011
Sento Isuzu New Pot N=0.1 : 97.00324833
Sento Isuzu New Pot N=0.2 : 94.20087897
Sento Isuzu New Pot N=0.5 : 86.96006478


Thus ends Round 2

Now in Round 3, Rem meets Kasugano Sora. Kasugano Sora enters into the match with pot values as follows

Kasugano Sora new pot n=0.1 : 101.627352
Kasugano Sora new pot n=0.2 : 103.2188397
Kasugano Sora new pot n=0.5 : 107.7781175


We do the process again


Into N=0.1 pot, Rem contributes 10.531, Isuzu contributes10.163. The total for the pot is 20.69329968
Into N= 0.2 pot Rem contributes 22.083. Isuzu contributes 20.644. The total for the pot is 42.72714943
Into N=0.5 pot Rem contributes 62.292. Isuzu contributes 53.889. The total for the pot is 116.1812593

The match was 1031 to 577 in favor of Rem. Thus Rem takes 64.12% of the pot



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Re: Modified Pot value experiment

Post by IGNITE » Sat Feb 10, 2018 4:20 am

maglor wrote:It actually is uncommon for #1 or 2 seed to win the elimination period.
I went and had a look after reading this, the result is 5/10 tiara winners having #1 or #2 seed for elimination period, it's not really uncommon.
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2008 Fate Testarossa RS 1st
2009 Katsura Hinagiku RS 11th
2010 Akiyama Mio RS 3rd
2011 Misaka Mikoto RS 2nd
2012 Tachibana Kanade Nova PS1 1st
2013 Gokō Ruri (Kuroneko) Stella PS1 2nd
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Re: Modified Pot value experiment

Post by maglor » Sat Feb 10, 2018 4:48 pm

IGNITE wrote:
maglor wrote:It actually is uncommon for #1 or 2 seed to win the elimination period.
I went and had a look after reading this, the result is 5/10 tiara winners having #1 or #2 seed for elimination period, it's not really uncommon.
SpoilerShow
2008 Fate Testarossa RS 1st
2009 Katsura Hinagiku RS 11th
2010 Akiyama Mio RS 3rd
2011 Misaka Mikoto RS 2nd
2012 Tachibana Kanade Nova PS1 1st
2013 Gokō Ruri (Kuroneko) Stella PS1 2nd
2014 Itsuka Kotori Nova PS1 6th
2015 Chitanda Eru Stella PS1 3rd
2016 Shana Female CVP 2nd
2017 Katō Megumi Female CVP 7th
Nice analysis. So, chance of #1 or 2 winning is a coin toss
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Re: Modified Pot value experiment

Post by Homura » Sat Feb 10, 2018 6:09 pm

The time for #4 or #5 seed winning the Tiara lies ahead, possibly in the near future~
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Re: Modified Pot value experiment

Post by ~Baumkuchen-kun~ » Thu Feb 22, 2018 4:50 am

Gaaaah, this feels so weird to look at after all these years on this forum
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Re: Modified Pot value experiment

Post by XIQQ » Fri Jun 29, 2018 6:09 pm

Topaz 1, sorted by FEV% (sorry for the poor formatting)
SpoilerShow
Name FEV% STDV%
Kanna Kamui 66.154% ±5.134%
Shiro 64.937% ±4.81%
Nishimiya Shōko 64.649% ±4.822%
Rem 64.361% ±4.395%
Tōru 63.835% ±4.582%
Yūki Asuna 63.28% ±4.251%
Shiina Mashiro 62.34% ±4.159%
Takanashi Rikka 60.446% ±3.477%
Furukawa Nagisa 53.082% ±1.852%
Isla 52.397% ±1.067%
Saten Ruiko 52.316% ±1.692%
Nibutani Shinka 51.928% ±0.566%
Yuzuriha Inori 51.822% ±1.382%
Shiina Mayuri 51.814% ±0.743%
Kōsaka Reina 51.621% ±2.02%
Miyamizu Mitsuha 51.614% ±0.582%
Kasugano Sora 51.441% ±1.637%
Tobiichi Origami 51.317% ±0.368%
Kuroyukihime 51.298% ±0.463%
Aqua 51.039% ±1.675%
Tomori Nao 50.921% ±1.737%
Aragaki Ayase 50.797% ±0.663%
Kaname Madoka 50.13% ±1.831%
Daidōji Tomoyo 50.039% ±1.022%
Kani Nayuta 49.961% ±1.022%
Ōmae Kumiko 49.87% ±1.831%
Asada Shino 49.203% ±0.663%
Doma Umaru 49.079% ±1.737%
Yamada Elf 48.961% ±1.675%
Kirigaya Suguha (Leafa) 48.702% ±0.463%
Kuriyama Mirai 48.683% ±0.368%
Diamond 48.559% ±1.637%
Hirasawa Yui 48.386% ±0.582%
Yuigahama Yui 48.379% ±2.02%
Tenma Gabriel White 48.186% ±0.743%
Nagato Yuki 48.178% ±1.382%
Minami Kotori 48.072% ±0.566%
C.C. 47.684% ±1.692%
Sawamura Spencer Eriri 47.603% ±1.067%
Nero Claudius 46.918% ±1.852%
Ayano Keiko (Silica) 39.554% ±3.477%
Shirakawa Miyako 37.66% ±4.159%
Nishikino Maki 36.72% ±4.251%
Oshino Shinobu 36.165% ±4.582%
Kirishima Tōka 35.639% ±4.395%
Kayano Kaede 35.351% ±4.822%
Onodera Kosaki 35.063% ±4.81%
Kanzaki H. Aria 33.846% ±5.134%
SpoilerShow
Name FEV% STDV%
Hikigaya Hachiman 66.028% ±4.939%
Levi 64.407% ±4.736%
Shiota Nagisa 61.856% ±3.816%
Tachibana Taki 61.303% ±4.206%
Ayanokōji Kiyotaka 60.791% ±3.491%
Okabe Rintarō 60.672% ±3.535%
Emiya Shirō 60.578% ±3.341%
Archer 58.605% ±2.835%
Kanie Seiya 52.077% ±0.877%
Sakamaki Izayoi 52.03% ±1.381%
Uchiha Sasuke 51.956% ±1.38%
Yato 51.824% ±1.448%
Yukihira Sōma 51.535% ±1.108%
Willem Kmetsch 51.461% ±1.2%
Akasaka Ryūnosuke 51.253% ±1.239%
Natsume Takashi 51.082% ±1.814%
Okazaki Tomoya 51.049% ±2.042%
Li Syaoran 50.884% ±0.881%
Isana Yashiro 50.779% ±0.779%
Satō Kazuma 50.6% ±1.301%
Sakamoto 50.564% ±1.086%
Kanzaki Hideri 50.387% ±1.672%
Dazai Osamu 50.288% ±1.132%
Satoshi 50.169% ±1.837%
Suō Mikoto 49.831% ±1.837%
Kōsaka Kyōsuke 49.712% ±1.132%
Amamiya Ren 49.613% ±1.672%
Arima Kōsei 49.436% ±1.086%
Kaneki Ken 49.4% ±1.301%
Amakusa Shirō Tokisada 49.221% ±0.779%
Doma Taihei 49.116% ±0.881%
Natsuki Subaru 48.951% ±2.042%
Midoriya Izuku 48.918% ±1.814%
Tatsumi 48.747% ±1.239%
Itsuka Shidō 48.539% ±1.2%
Kanda Sorata 48.465% ±1.108%
Totsuka Saika 48.176% ±1.448%
Orihara Izaya 48.044% ±1.38%
Son Goku 47.97% ±1.381%
Armin Arlert 47.923% ±0.877%
Leonardo Watch 41.395% ±2.835%
Kasugano Haruka 39.422% ±3.341%
Killua Zoldyck 39.328% ±3.535%
Akatsuki Kojō 39.209% ±3.491%
Sebas Tian 38.697% ±4.206%
Bakugō Katsuki 38.144% ±3.816%
Nanase Haruka 35.593% ±4.736%
Tomoe 33.972% ±4.939%
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Re: Modified Pot value experiment

Post by Ennadai » Tue Feb 26, 2019 1:00 pm

M35103510
Topaz 1481463731
Topaz 248310000
Topaz 3481671321
Topaz 4501240110
Topaz 5481440110
Topaz 6481340200
Topaz 748920100
Topaz 8481781321
Topaz 9481041200
Topaz 10481350710
Amethyst 1321371330
Amethyst 2481750530
Amethyst 3481731100
Amethyst 4481651430
Amethyst 5482491740
Amethyst 64821101961
Amethyst 748221441283
Amethyst 84822721572
Sapphire 112210110
Sapphire 2481151641
Sapphire 34823142840
Sapphire 4481941600
Sapphire 55023112972
Sapphire 6481560530
Sapphire 74813711060
Emerald 148211231092
Emerald 248710210
Emerald 34816110640
Emerald 4481340730
Emerald 548211041252
Ruby 136610200
Ruby 236510300
Ruby 342320320
Ruby 44212401040
Ruby 542850430
Ruby 68210210
Diamond 124610210
Diamond 224610410
Diamond 324531100
Diamond 424200200
Diamond 524850220
Diamond 612331110
Elimination 18200100
Elimination 29100000
Elimination 312320110
Elimination 414410210
Elimination 520410200
Elimination 622720520
Elimination 722110000
Elimination 822400200
LegendShow
Mnumber of matches that both of the contestants have participated in more than five matches
3ABS( Z-score ) ≥ 3ABS( VF% - FEV% ) ≥ 3%
5ABS( Z-score ) ≥ 5ABS( VF% - FEV% ) ≥ 5%
10ABS( Z-score ) ≥ 10ABS( VF% - FEV% ) ≥ 10%
3ABS( Z-score ) ≥ 3ABS( VF% - FEV% ) ≥ 3%
( VF% > 50% ∧ FEV% < 50% ∨ VF% < 50% ∧ FEV% > 50% )
5ABS( Z-score ) ≥ 5ABS( VF% - FEV% ) ≥ 5%
( VF% > 50% ∧ FEV% < 50% ∨ VF% < 50% ∧ FEV% > 50% )
10ABS( Z-score ) ≥ 10ABS( VF% - FEV% ) ≥ 10%
( VF% > 50% ∧ FEV% < 50% ∨ VF% < 50% ∧ FEV% > 50% )
ABS( Z-score ) ≥ 10 ∧ ABS( VF% - FEV% ) ≥ 10%Show
ISML 2018ContestantFEV%VF%OpponentSTDV%Z-score
Topaz 1Tobiichi Origami51.32%40.98%Kuriyama Mirai0.39%-26.46
Topaz 1Nibutani Shinka50.11%63.20%Minami Kotori0.68%19.22
Topaz 1Kanie Seiya51.97%62.10%Armin Arlert0.91%11.11
Topaz 3Aragaki Ayase52.95%42.86%Ōmae Kumiko0.89%-11.28
Topaz 8Kitashirakawa Tamako53.62%37.95%Sakura Chiyo0.45%-34.88
Topaz 9Daidōji Tomoyo50.35%62.38%Oshino Shinobu0.90%13.41
Amethyst 1Edward Elric52.47%66.38%Aki Tomoya0.68%20.58
Amethyst 3Takanashi Rikka58.54%74.83%Ōmae Kumiko1.61%10.11
Amethyst 4Li Syaoran52.74%64.32%Isana Yashiro0.93%12.47
Amethyst 5Makise Kurisu57.59%69.33%Saten Ruiko0.86%13.57
Amethyst 6Schwi Dola58.66%37.97%Shirai Kuroko1.68%-12.35
Amethyst 7Emilia57.99%42.45%Aoyama Nanami1.00%-15.56
Amethyst 7Tōru53.41%24.79%Aisaka Taiga1.31%-21.81
Amethyst 7Todoroki Shōto53.04%66.08%Orihara Izaya0.71%18.25
Amethyst 7Kanda Sorata50.95%35.00%Midoriya Izuku1.28%-12.51
Amethyst 8Kōsaka Reina50.48%35.73%Doma Umaru0.98%-15.02
Amethyst 8Kanbara Akihito55.42%44.47%Dazai Osamu0.96%-11.36
Sapphire 2Yatogami Tōka50.24%38.05%Nakano Azusa0.78%-15.56
Sapphire 3Kinomoto Sakura52.30%66.78%Sawamura Spencer Eriri0.94%15.33
Sapphire 3Togashi Yūta54.23%67.74%Kanda Sorata1.11%12.21
Sapphire 4Takanashi Rikka53.39%68.73%Tobiichi Origami1.49%10.29
Sapphire 5Willem Kmetsch55.46%37.56%Totsuka Saika1.66%-10.78
Sapphire 5Natsume Takashi57.54%40.40%Monkey D. Luffy1.53%-11.19
Sapphire 7Tokisaki Kurumi51.83%65.82%Illyasviel von Einzbern0.90%15.54
Emerald 1Makise Kurisu51.36%34.64%Miyazono Kaori1.29%-12.94
Emerald 1Tōru51.35%36.10%Isla1.18%-12.93
Emerald 1Willem Kmetsch51.03%65.72%Doma Taihei0.47%30.97
Emerald 5Miyazono Kaori50.45%35.16%Furukawa Nagisa0.83%-18.36
Emerald 5Ishida Shōya53.63%35.42%Lancer1.05%-17.37
Emerald 5Riku Dola52.58%66.93%Emiya Shirō0.73%19.67
Emerald 5Okabe Rintarō50.88%65.40%Ayanokōji Kiyotaka0.97%14.98
Diamond 3Levi56.96%76.80%Okazaki Tomoya0.89%22.20
Diamond 6Schwi Dola55.44%69.14%Daidōji Tomoyo1.25%10.92
ABS( VF% - FEV% ) ≥ 20%Show
ISML 2018ContestantFEV%VF%OpponentSTDV%Z-score
Amethyst 6Nishimiya Shōko54.99%75.50%Furukawa Nagisa3.25%6.32
Amethyst 6Schwi Dola58.66%37.97%Shirai Kuroko1.68%-12.35
Amethyst 6Nagato Yuki59.35%36.48%Shiina Mayuri3.17%-7.22
Amethyst 7Tōru53.41%24.79%Aisaka Taiga1.31%-21.81
Amethyst 7Nishimiya Shōko60.00%38.93%Izumi Sagiri3.77%-5.59
Amethyst 8Shiina Mashiro57.77%33.36%Haibara Ai3.14%-7.78
Amethyst 8Takanashi Rikka54.64%32.09%Saber2.37%-9.51
Amethyst 8Illyasviel von Einzbern50.15%25.42%Chtholly Nota Seniorious2.87%-8.60
Sapphire 3Yūki Asuna61.51%84.55%Jibril3.16%7.30
Sapphire 5Rem56.10%77.38%Izumi Sagiri3.14%6.78
Sapphire 7Yuzuriha Inori52.07%29.23%Kōsaka Reina2.70%-8.46
Elimination 4Kamijō Tōma51.13%29.53%Archer2.18%-9.92
Elimination 6Yūki Asuna55.48%32.75%Shiina Mashiro3.76%-6.04
 
 
NP10P25P50P75P90AVGW%
0.1 , 0.2 , 0.30.61%1.56%3.65%6.80%11.30%4.89%77.08%
0.1 , 0.2 , 0.40.59%1.57%3.64%6.75%11.11%4.84%76.92%
0.1 , 0.2 , 0.50.54%1.54%3.62%6.76%11.01%4.81%77.14%
0.1 , 0.2 , 0.60.57%1.52%3.64%6.75%10.94%4.81%77.57%
0.1 , 0.2 , 0.70.60%1.49%3.69%6.69%11.02%4.82%77.08%
0.1 , 0.2 , 0.80.58%1.52%3.64%6.65%11.03%4.83%76.98%
0.1 , 0.2 , 0.90.63%1.54%3.71%6.71%11.08%4.86%76.87%
0.1 , 0.2 , 1.00.64%1.59%3.73%6.81%11.26%4.91%76.44%
0.1 , 0.3 , 0.40.59%1.52%3.55%6.72%11.06%4.79%77.19%
0.1 , 0.3 , 0.50.58%1.50%3.55%6.58%10.99%4.77%77.25%
0.1 , 0.3 , 0.60.58%1.50%3.56%6.59%11.04%4.78%77.35%
0.1 , 0.3 , 0.70.56%1.50%3.59%6.58%11.05%4.79%77.14%
0.1 , 0.3 , 0.80.56%1.50%3.57%6.59%11.17%4.81%77.03%
0.1 , 0.3 , 0.90.57%1.55%3.65%6.70%11.21%4.84%76.92%
0.1 , 0.3 , 1.00.60%1.59%3.71%6.76%11.14%4.88%76.39%
0.1 , 0.4 , 0.50.55%1.48%3.54%6.58%10.94%4.76%77.25%
0.1 , 0.4 , 0.60.55%1.49%3.52%6.54%10.98%4.77%77.08%
0.1 , 0.4 , 0.70.55%1.51%3.56%6.56%11.04%4.79%76.82%
0.1 , 0.4 , 0.80.55%1.54%3.60%6.60%11.01%4.82%76.92%
0.1 , 0.4 , 0.90.56%1.57%3.64%6.72%11.11%4.85%76.44%
0.1 , 0.4 , 1.00.59%1.56%3.73%6.79%11.18%4.90%76.49%
0.1 , 0.5 , 0.60.54%1.50%3.55%6.56%10.90%4.79%76.82%
0.1 , 0.5 , 0.70.55%1.55%3.63%6.60%11.03%4.81%76.87%
0.1 , 0.5 , 0.80.57%1.54%3.68%6.65%11.09%4.85%76.33%
0.1 , 0.5 , 0.90.60%1.55%3.71%6.74%11.09%4.89%76.17%
0.1 , 0.5 , 1.00.59%1.56%3.77%6.80%11.09%4.94%76.28%
0.1 , 0.6 , 0.70.59%1.53%3.66%6.67%11.03%4.85%76.39%
0.1 , 0.6 , 0.80.61%1.57%3.73%6.74%11.05%4.89%76.39%
0.1 , 0.6 , 0.90.60%1.59%3.78%6.78%11.08%4.94%76.06%
0.1 , 0.6 , 1.00.61%1.61%3.82%6.89%11.18%4.99%76.01%
0.1 , 0.7 , 0.80.61%1.60%3.79%6.77%11.12%4.94%75.95%
0.1 , 0.7 , 0.90.59%1.60%3.83%6.83%11.13%4.99%75.90%
0.1 , 0.7 , 1.00.60%1.63%3.89%6.98%11.23%5.05%75.63%
0.1 , 0.8 , 0.90.60%1.65%3.88%6.96%11.30%5.05%75.90%
0.1 , 0.8 , 1.00.63%1.68%3.96%7.07%11.34%5.12%75.42%
0.1 , 0.9 , 1.00.63%1.77%4.08%7.13%11.47%5.19%74.88%
0.2 , 0.3 , 0.40.58%1.51%3.62%6.62%10.92%4.77%77.08%
0.2 , 0.3 , 0.50.58%1.48%3.56%6.60%10.94%4.77%76.98%
0.2 , 0.3 , 0.60.57%1.47%3.58%6.50%10.99%4.77%77.25%
0.2 , 0.3 , 0.70.58%1.50%3.57%6.52%11.06%4.79%76.87%
0.2 , 0.3 , 0.80.55%1.52%3.59%6.53%11.18%4.81%76.92%
0.2 , 0.3 , 0.90.54%1.54%3.64%6.56%11.17%4.84%77.19%
0.2 , 0.3 , 1.00.55%1.59%3.71%6.66%11.17%4.88%77.14%
0.2 , 0.4 , 0.50.58%1.50%3.56%6.57%11.00%4.78%77.08%
0.2 , 0.4 , 0.60.59%1.50%3.57%6.57%11.07%4.79%77.14%
0.2 , 0.4 , 0.70.64%1.52%3.59%6.58%11.09%4.82%76.92%
0.2 , 0.4 , 0.80.61%1.54%3.61%6.66%11.11%4.85%76.82%
0.2 , 0.4 , 0.90.62%1.57%3.67%6.77%11.15%4.88%76.76%
0.2 , 0.4 , 1.00.62%1.60%3.73%6.81%11.15%4.92%76.39%
0.2 , 0.5 , 0.60.64%1.54%3.60%6.60%11.08%4.82%76.60%
0.2 , 0.5 , 0.70.63%1.54%3.64%6.67%11.18%4.85%76.60%
0.2 , 0.5 , 0.80.66%1.56%3.66%6.80%11.21%4.89%76.60%
0.2 , 0.5 , 0.90.64%1.57%3.71%6.83%11.20%4.93%76.28%
0.2 , 0.5 , 1.00.61%1.60%3.82%6.92%11.23%4.97%76.33%
0.2 , 0.6 , 0.70.65%1.55%3.67%6.81%11.22%4.89%76.44%
0.2 , 0.6 , 0.80.65%1.58%3.71%6.85%11.24%4.94%76.39%
0.2 , 0.6 , 0.90.63%1.61%3.79%6.95%11.25%4.98%76.12%
0.2 , 0.6 , 1.00.61%1.63%3.88%7.01%11.32%5.03%76.17%
0.2 , 0.7 , 0.80.68%1.60%3.83%6.96%11.25%4.99%76.06%
0.2 , 0.7 , 0.90.65%1.63%3.91%7.03%11.33%5.03%76.01%
0.2 , 0.7 , 1.00.64%1.67%3.92%7.05%11.34%5.09%75.90%
0.2 , 0.8 , 0.90.63%1.68%3.92%7.08%11.40%5.10%76.01%
0.2 , 0.8 , 1.00.68%1.72%3.98%7.19%11.41%5.16%75.63%
0.2 , 0.9 , 1.00.67%1.80%4.09%7.26%11.46%5.23%75.09%
0.3 , 0.4 , 0.50.63%1.56%3.64%6.67%11.08%4.82%76.82%
0.3 , 0.4 , 0.60.65%1.57%3.63%6.68%11.12%4.84%76.44%
0.3 , 0.4 , 0.70.62%1.57%3.64%6.73%11.24%4.87%76.44%
0.3 , 0.4 , 0.80.63%1.58%3.66%6.83%11.27%4.90%76.44%
0.3 , 0.4 , 0.90.62%1.59%3.70%6.89%11.29%4.93%76.44%
0.3 , 0.4 , 1.00.62%1.59%3.76%6.97%11.29%4.97%75.95%
0.3 , 0.5 , 0.60.61%1.57%3.66%6.74%11.27%4.88%76.60%
0.3 , 0.5 , 0.70.65%1.60%3.65%6.83%11.30%4.91%76.39%
0.3 , 0.5 , 0.80.64%1.61%3.72%6.94%11.33%4.95%76.28%
0.3 , 0.5 , 0.90.63%1.61%3.77%6.99%11.30%4.99%75.95%
0.3 , 0.5 , 1.00.61%1.64%3.83%7.11%11.31%5.03%76.01%
0.3 , 0.6 , 0.70.62%1.62%3.73%6.92%11.33%4.96%76.22%
0.3 , 0.6 , 0.80.63%1.61%3.83%7.03%11.34%5.00%75.95%
0.3 , 0.6 , 0.90.65%1.61%3.86%7.10%11.30%5.05%76.17%
0.3 , 0.6 , 1.00.64%1.67%3.91%7.18%11.42%5.10%76.28%
0.3 , 0.7 , 0.80.64%1.65%3.87%7.10%11.33%5.06%76.28%
0.3 , 0.7 , 0.90.62%1.69%3.94%7.13%11.40%5.11%75.95%
0.3 , 0.7 , 1.00.63%1.71%3.98%7.23%11.48%5.17%76.22%
0.3 , 0.8 , 0.90.62%1.73%4.01%7.25%11.44%5.17%76.01%
0.3 , 0.8 , 1.00.65%1.78%4.02%7.34%11.53%5.24%75.79%
0.3 , 0.9 , 1.00.65%1.85%4.10%7.37%11.60%5.31%75.31%
0.4 , 0.5 , 0.60.64%1.63%3.69%6.85%11.40%4.94%76.28%
0.4 , 0.5 , 0.70.61%1.62%3.72%6.96%11.33%4.98%76.17%
0.4 , 0.5 , 0.80.63%1.62%3.78%7.06%11.38%5.02%75.79%
0.4 , 0.5 , 0.90.61%1.66%3.83%7.16%11.36%5.06%75.95%
0.4 , 0.5 , 1.00.60%1.67%3.89%7.20%11.39%5.11%76.01%
0.4 , 0.6 , 0.70.62%1.64%3.77%7.10%11.56%5.03%75.69%
0.4 , 0.6 , 0.80.63%1.67%3.81%7.18%11.42%5.08%76.12%
0.4 , 0.6 , 0.90.60%1.69%3.91%7.25%11.42%5.13%76.12%
0.4 , 0.6 , 1.00.60%1.73%3.95%7.27%11.49%5.18%75.90%
0.4 , 0.7 , 0.80.62%1.71%3.91%7.23%11.40%5.14%76.17%
0.4 , 0.7 , 0.90.58%1.75%4.00%7.29%11.47%5.19%75.58%
0.4 , 0.7 , 1.00.57%1.79%4.03%7.36%11.60%5.25%75.52%
0.4 , 0.8 , 0.90.60%1.79%4.06%7.35%11.61%5.26%75.36%
0.4 , 0.8 , 1.00.64%1.87%4.08%7.43%11.75%5.33%75.31%
0.4 , 0.9 , 1.00.69%1.89%4.14%7.49%11.84%5.40%75.15%
0.5 , 0.6 , 0.70.63%1.72%3.82%7.15%11.53%5.11%76.01%
0.5 , 0.6 , 0.80.65%1.72%3.89%7.24%11.43%5.16%76.12%
0.5 , 0.6 , 0.90.61%1.75%3.99%7.34%11.51%5.21%75.74%
0.5 , 0.6 , 1.00.61%1.78%4.05%7.33%11.60%5.27%75.42%
0.5 , 0.7 , 0.80.66%1.76%3.97%7.34%11.60%5.22%75.63%
0.5 , 0.7 , 0.90.60%1.80%4.04%7.33%11.64%5.28%75.31%
0.5 , 0.7 , 1.00.62%1.87%4.14%7.41%11.74%5.34%75.09%
0.5 , 0.8 , 0.90.62%1.89%4.12%7.41%11.75%5.35%74.99%
0.5 , 0.8 , 1.00.65%1.93%4.15%7.51%11.84%5.42%74.88%
0.5 , 0.9 , 1.00.69%1.98%4.21%7.60%12.04%5.50%74.61%
0.6 , 0.7 , 0.80.67%1.79%4.03%7.38%11.66%5.31%75.31%
0.6 , 0.7 , 0.90.62%1.88%4.14%7.41%11.77%5.37%75.04%
0.6 , 0.7 , 1.00.63%1.93%4.17%7.48%11.87%5.43%74.88%
0.6 , 0.8 , 0.90.67%1.94%4.20%7.50%11.91%5.45%74.99%
0.6 , 0.8 , 1.00.71%1.95%4.24%7.56%12.04%5.52%74.72%
0.6 , 0.9 , 1.00.73%2.01%4.29%7.70%12.17%5.60%73.80%
0.7 , 0.8 , 0.90.74%1.99%4.26%7.60%12.05%5.53%74.61%
0.7 , 0.8 , 1.00.75%2.01%4.31%7.74%12.11%5.61%73.96%
0.7 , 0.9 , 1.00.79%2.04%4.38%7.89%12.28%5.69%73.43%
0.8 , 0.9 , 1.00.81%2.10%4.46%7.96%12.54%5.79%72.94%
LegendShow
Nvariables for calculating pot values
P10the 10th percentile of ABS( VF% - FEV% )
P25the 25th percentile of ABS( VF% - FEV% )
P50the 50th percentile of ABS( VF% - FEV% )
P75the 75th percentile of ABS( VF% - FEV% )
P90the 90th percentile of ABS( VF% - FEV% )
AVGthe average of ABS( VF% - FEV% )
W%winning percentage of the expected winners
 
 
MWW%MWW%
2018 
1859 
1434 
77.14% 
2017 
1791 
1613 
90.06% 
 Female 
 921 
 703 
76.33% 
 Female 
 890 
 808 
90.79% 
 Male 
 921 
 723 
78.50% 
 Male 
 890 
 797 
89.55% 
 Seasonal 
  17 
   8 
47.06% 
 Seasonal 
  11 
   8 
72.73% 
Topaz 
 480 
 423 
88.13% 
Topaz 
 480 
 450 
93.75% 
 Female 
 240 
 209 
87.08% 
 Female 
 240 
 224 
93.33% 
 Male 
 240 
 214 
89.17% 
 Male 
 240 
 226 
94.17% 
Amethyst 
 368 
 286 
77.72% 
Amethyst 
 368 
 342 
92.93% 
 Female 
 184 
 138 
75.00% 
 Female 
 184 
 172 
93.48% 
 Male 
 184 
 148 
80.43% 
 Male 
 184 
 170 
92.39% 
Sapphire 
 300 
 227 
75.67% 
Sapphire 
 300 
 274 
91.33% 
 Female 
 150 
 114 
76.00% 
 Female 
 150 
 141 
94.00% 
 Male 
 150 
 113 
75.33% 
 Male 
 150 
 133 
88.67% 
Emerald 
 240 
 175 
72.92% 
Emerald 
 240 
 216 
90.00% 
 Female 
 120 
  87 
72.50% 
 Female 
 120 
 111 
92.50% 
 Male 
 120 
  88 
73.33% 
 Male 
 120 
 105 
87.50% 
Ruby 
 204 
 142 
69.61% 
Ruby 
 180 
 158 
87.78% 
 Female 
 102 
  70 
68.63% 
 Female 
  90 
  76 
84.44% 
 Male 
 102 
  72 
70.59% 
 Male 
  90 
  82 
91.11% 
Diamond 
 132 
  98 
74.24% 
Diamond 
 120 
  98 
81.67% 
 Female 
  66 
  47 
71.21% 
 Female 
  60 
  52 
86.67% 
 Male 
  66 
  51 
77.27% 
 Male 
  60 
  46 
76.67% 
Elimination 
 118 
  75 
63.56% 
Elimination 
  92 
  67 
72.83% 
 Female 
  59 
  38 
64.41% 
 Female 
  46 
  32 
69.57% 
 Male 
  59 
  37 
62.71% 
 Male 
  46 
  35 
76.09% 
 
 
50% ≤ FEV% < 51% 
 261 
 144 
 55.17% 
50% ≤ FEV% < 51% 
 170 
 105 
 61.76% 
51% ≤ FEV% < 52% 
 230 
 136 
 59.13% 
51% ≤ FEV% < 52% 
 166 
 119 
 71.69% 
52% ≤ FEV% < 53% 
 222 
 151 
 68.02% 
52% ≤ FEV% < 53% 
 192 
 164 
 85.42% 
53% ≤ FEV% < 54% 
 193 
 144 
 74.61% 
53% ≤ FEV% < 54% 
 198 
 181 
 91.41% 
54% ≤ FEV% < 55% 
 191 
 162 
 84.82% 
54% ≤ FEV% < 55% 
 179 
 173 
 96.65% 
55% ≤ FEV% < 56% 
 156 
 136 
 87.18% 
55% ≤ FEV% < 56% 
 193 
 181 
 93.78% 
56% ≤ FEV% < 57% 
 100 
  91 
 91.00% 
56% ≤ FEV% < 57% 
 154 
 152 
 98.70% 
57% ≤ FEV% < 58% 
 117 
 102 
 87.18% 
57% ≤ FEV% < 58% 
 112 
 112 
100.00% 
58% ≤ FEV% < 59% 
  98 
  91 
 92.86% 
58% ≤ FEV% < 59% 
 114 
 114 
100.00% 
59% ≤ FEV% < 60% 
  84 
  74 
 88.10% 
59% ≤ FEV% < 60% 
  86 
  86 
100.00% 
60% ≤ FEV% < 61% 
  70 
  68 
 97.14% 
60% ≤ FEV% < 61% 
  85 
  85 
100.00% 
61% ≤ FEV% < 62% 
  48 
  46 
 95.83% 
61% ≤ FEV% < 62% 
  66 
  67 
 98.51% 
62% ≤ FEV% 
  89 
  89 
100.00% 
62% ≤ FEV% 
  75 
  75 
100.00% 
50% ≤ FEV% < 51%Show
2018MWW%2017MWW%
50.0% ≤ FEV% < 50.2% 
55 
26 
47.27% 
50.0% ≤ FEV% < 50.2% 
21 
40 
52.50% 
50.2% ≤ FEV% < 50.4% 
52 
27 
51.92% 
50.2% ≤ FEV% < 50.4% 
25 
42 
59.52% 
50.4% ≤ FEV% < 50.6% 
44 
28 
63.64% 
50.4% ≤ FEV% < 50.6% 
18 
31 
58.06% 
50.6% ≤ FEV% < 50.8% 
49 
25 
51.02% 
50.6% ≤ FEV% < 50.8% 
21 
30 
70.00% 
50.8% ≤ FEV% < 51.0% 
61 
38 
62.30% 
50.8% ≤ FEV% < 51.0% 
20 
27 
74.07% 
Unexpected matchesShow
(top ten FEV% with the premise that the expected winner lost the match)
FEV%ContestantVFVFOpponentZ-score
ISML 2018
Sapphire 261.61%Tokisaki Kurumi29023865Sakura Chiyo7.7
Sapphire 461.05%Chtholly Nota Seniorious24522552Matō Sakura3.1
Amethyst 560.57%Yūki Asuna41364623Nagato Yuki3.1
Sapphire 560.14%Kinomoto Sakura41095862Jibril8.0
Amethyst 760.00%Nishimiya Shōko45617156Izumi Sagiri5.6
Sapphire 459.97%Rem25612955Nagato Yuki3.4
Amethyst 459.94%Tōru31523279Jibril5.3
Amethyst 659.88%Yukinoshita Yukino57726320Kitashirakawa Tamako4.0
Emerald 259.83%Archer1019810337Kanda Sorata6.7
Amethyst 459.73%Yukihira Sōma25342620Hei4.8
ISML 2017
Emerald 161.23%Saitama9641336Natsume Takashi4.3
Sapphire 1056.44%Shiba Tatsuya13011330Yagami Light4.8
Elimination 256.22%Saitama15501782Gilgamesh3.0
Sapphire 955.84%Katsuragi Keima894979Dazai Osamu5.0
Amethyst 1155.77%Isla10741170Beatrice7.9
Ruby 655.76%Yūki Asuna19392640Saber4.7
Sapphire 555.75%Satomi Rentarō798932Dazai Osamu10.3
Diamond 255.66%Saber16511683Kafū Chino2.1
Topaz 1555.63%Shiro14751667Sakura Chiyo2.5
Amethyst 1055.48%Kyon8291117Edogawa Conan7.1
RematchesShow
Topaz 6Ainz Ooal Gown3187Kyon2619
Diamond 3Ainz Ooal Gown13260Kyon12041
Aquamarine 11Ainz Ooal Gown4137Willem Kmetsch3709
Diamond 4Ainz Ooal Gown13976Willem Kmetsch14598
Aquamarine 13Aisaka Taiga5083Illyasviel von Einzbern5376
Ruby 5Aisaka Taiga15056Illyasviel von Einzbern16419
Ruby 1Aisaka Taiga9515Kitashirakawa Tamako9792
Elimination 3Aisaka Taiga18136Kitashirakawa Tamako15909
Amethyst 2Akabane Karma2989Natsuki Subaru2378
Diamond 5Akabane Karma13642Natsuki Subaru13726
Emerald 4Akabane Karma9064Riku Dola9740
Diamond 4Akabane Karma12369Riku Dola14839
Topaz 10Akabane Karma4914Saitama4897
Diamond 1Akabane Karma12144Saitama12439
Amethyst 8Akabane Karma2536Shiota Nagisa4172
Diamond 2Akabane Karma11656Shiota Nagisa13523
Amethyst 7Aoyama Nanami6383Emilia4709
Emerald 2Aoyama Nanami10976Emilia9129
Ruby 3Aoyama Nanami12825Takanashi Rikka17536
Elimination 8Aoyama Nanami20986Takanashi Rikka26978
Sapphire 5Aoyama Nanami3698Tōsaka Rin5543
Elimination 6Aoyama Nanami21923Tōsaka Rin20452
Topaz 6Aoyama Nanami2456Yukinoshita Yukino5029
Ruby 1Aoyama Nanami8765Yukinoshita Yukino11483
Emerald 3Archer10028Astolfo8330
Diamond 3Archer13169Astolfo11724
Diamond 5Archer8738Hikigaya Hachiman19772
Elimination 8Archer15990Hikigaya Hachiman35856
Diamond 1Astolfo10098Hikigaya Hachiman16255
Elimination 1Astolfo9928Hikigaya Hachiman25960
Amethyst 1Astolfo1759Ishida Shōya2791
Diamond 5Astolfo13702Ishida Shōya13552
Sapphire 2Astolfo2387Kamijō Tōma2943
Elimination 8Astolfo21382Kamijō Tōma23057
Topaz 10Astolfo2755Riku Dola6125
Ruby 2Astolfo11094Riku Dola7785
Aquamarine 7Astolfo3310Yato3361
Ruby 1Astolfo9390Yato8445
Sapphire 6Chtholly Nota Seniorious9220Furukawa Nagisa4660
Diamond 3Chtholly Nota Seniorious9595Furukawa Nagisa8594
Amethyst 8Chtholly Nota Seniorious8119Illyasviel von Einzbern2768
Elimination 2Chtholly Nota Seniorious17285Illyasviel von Einzbern15816
Aquamarine 12Chtholly Nota Seniorious5391Megumin2391
Ruby 2Chtholly Nota Seniorious10637Megumin9980
Ruby 5Chtholly Nota Seniorious18604Shiina Mashiro15230
Elimination 8Chtholly Nota Seniorious23193Shiina Mashiro22910
Sapphire 7Chtholly Nota Seniorious7957Takanashi Rikka5516
Elimination 7Chtholly Nota Seniorious22804Takanashi Rikka20650
Emerald 5Daidōji Tomoyo10731Tomori Nao11513
Elimination 4Daidōji Tomoyo15309Tomori Nao16201
Emerald 5Edward Elric9667Kaneki Ken10855
Elimination 3Edward Elric16457Kaneki Ken15665
Ruby 4Emilia22292Nibutani Shinka19111
Elimination 3Emilia20254Nibutani Shinka12780
Emerald 4Emilia8131Nishimiya Shōko10737
Diamond 4Emilia16983Nishimiya Shōko17276
Emerald 1Emilia10406Saber8158
Elimination 7Emilia22341Saber21397
Ruby 5Emilia17384Shiro15000
Elimination 8Emilia28693Shiro17376
Emerald 3Emilia8425Yuigahama Yui12665
Diamond 5Emilia15765Yuigahama Yui15006
Topaz 10Emiya Kiritsugu3763Ishida Shōya4740
Elimination 6Emiya Kiritsugu21018Ishida Shōya19250
Amethyst 8Emiya Kiritsugu3773Kamijō Tōma3675
Diamond 5Emiya Kiritsugu13738Kamijō Tōma13666
Emerald 1Emiya Kiritsugu8910Saitama9938
Elimination 5Emiya Kiritsugu15722Saitama16029
Ruby 5Emiya Kiritsugu15711Yato15197
Elimination 2Emiya Kiritsugu14559Yato14270
Diamond 4Emiya Shirō10882Hikigaya Hachiman17331
Elimination 5Emiya Shirō6767Hikigaya Hachiman27047
Sapphire 6Emiya Shirō5006Ishida Shōya5582
Diamond 3Emiya Shirō12801Ishida Shōya11778
Sapphire 5Eren Yeager2301Levi7334
Diamond 1Eren Yeager11185Levi15567
Amethyst 4Eren Yeager3822Natsume Takashi2746
Ruby 3Eren Yeager13486Natsume Takashi13349
Emerald 4Eren Yeager8795Okabe Rintarō11099
Diamond 3Eren Yeager8537Okabe Rintarō17932
Topaz 8Eren Yeager2595Togashi Yūta4311
Diamond 2Eren Yeager12320Togashi Yūta13855
Topaz 10Eren Yeager5019Uchiha Itachi4382
Ruby 5Eren Yeager15819Uchiha Itachi15515
Ruby 2Erythrocyte10295Tsuyuzaki Mahiru9660
Ruby 6Erythrocyte16722Tsuyuzaki Mahiru12921
Emerald 2Furukawa Nagisa10610Makise Kurisu10115
Diamond 5Furukawa Nagisa11991Makise Kurisu19778
Ruby 3Furukawa Nagisa13953Shiro15640
Diamond 4Furukawa Nagisa14309Shiro16646
Topaz 9Furukawa Nagisa4619Tōru4643
Ruby 4Furukawa Nagisa18481Tōru18040
Amethyst 3Gilgamesh2102Kyon2153
Diamond 1Gilgamesh12147Kyon14338
Topaz 8Gilgamesh3802Todoroki Shōto3134
Elimination 3Gilgamesh13541Todoroki Shōto19809
Aquamarine 3Heiwajima Shizuo1883Kamijō Tōma3283
Emerald 3Heiwajima Shizuo9492Kamijō Tōma13026
Ruby 3Hikigaya Hachiman18405Ishida Shōya10654
Diamond 2Hikigaya Hachiman16871Ishida Shōya10189
Topaz 9Hikigaya Hachiman7093Kaneki Ken2962
Ruby 1Hikigaya Hachiman9903Kaneki Ken8530
Aquamarine 2Izumi Sagiri4157Kōsaka Reina2846
Diamond 5Izumi Sagiri17631Kōsaka Reina10035
Emerald 4Izumi Sagiri11735Tokisaki Kurumi10174
Diamond 4Izumi Sagiri14123Tokisaki Kurumi14217
Aquamarine 11Kamijō Tōma3789Todoroki Shōto3319
Ruby 3Kamijō Tōma12377Todoroki Shōto14206
Topaz 7Kanna Kamui6099Kuriyama Mirai2467
Ruby 3Kanna Kamui18947Kuriyama Mirai12015
Ruby 4Kasumigaoka Utaha18054Nakano Azusa16170
Elimination 2Kasumigaoka Utaha14074Nakano Azusa15294
Amethyst 7Kasumigaoka Utaha3402Tokisaki Kurumi5359
Ruby 3Kasumigaoka Utaha14646Tokisaki Kurumi17410
Amethyst 2Kinomoto Sakura3458Kitashirakawa Tamako2679
Diamond 4Kinomoto Sakura13455Kitashirakawa Tamako15669
Ruby 5Kinomoto Sakura15512Nakano Azusa17847
Diamond 1Kinomoto Sakura16659Nakano Azusa13182
Amethyst 8Kinomoto Sakura3770Yukinoshita Yukino5521
Elimination 2Kinomoto Sakura13076Yukinoshita Yukino18113
Emerald 4Kitashirakawa Tamako10903Takanashi Rikka7992
Diamond 2Kitashirakawa Tamako12108Takanashi Rikka14563
Amethyst 2Kōsaka Reina2654Saber3359
Diamond 4Kōsaka Reina13115Saber15776
Amethyst 6Kōsaka Reina4048Takanashi Rikka6960
Ruby 4Kōsaka Reina18838Takanashi Rikka17371
Ruby 1Kuriyama Mirai9642Nagato Yuki10002
Elimination 4Kuriyama Mirai15859Nagato Yuki15131
Amethyst 5Kuriyama Mirai4187Sakura Chiyo3002
Ruby 4Kuriyama Mirai16157Sakura Chiyo19230
Sapphire 5Kyon4121Midoriya Izuku4725
Ruby 5Kyon15666Midoriya Izuku15335
Aquamarine 11Kyon2624Shiota Nagisa4796
Ruby 1Kyon8810Shiota Nagisa9207
Emerald 4Kyon8901Willem Kmetsch10230
Diamond 5Kyon12332Willem Kmetsch14964
Topaz 9Levi6185Natsuki Subaru3568
Ruby 1Levi9680Natsuki Subaru9040
Topaz 7Levi4355Okazaki Tomoya2480
Diamond 3Levi19781Okazaki Tomoya5975
Elimination 4Levi24390Okazaki Tomoya11230
Amethyst 2Li Syaoran1667Natsume Takashi3200
Elimination 8Li Syaoran21280Natsume Takashi22791
Sapphire 3Makise Kurisu2815Nakano Azusa4290
Elimination 6Makise Kurisu22837Nakano Azusa17566
Sapphire 4Midoriya Izuku2169Tachibana Taki2365
Elimination 3Midoriya Izuku15855Tachibana Taki16326
Aquamarine 7Nagato Yuki3659Sakura Chiyo2733
Ruby 5Nagato Yuki15117Sakura Chiyo16370
Emerald 3Nakano Azusa10207Shiina Mashiro12788
Diamond 4Nakano Azusa13440Shiina Mashiro16348
Aquamarine 13Natsuki Subaru3796Natsume Takashi4177
Elimination 4Natsuki Subaru14967Natsume Takashi16378
Sapphire 3Natsuki Subaru2682Saiki Kusuo2825
Ruby 2Natsuki Subaru10227Saiki Kusuo9309
Emerald 4Natsuki Subaru9206Saitama9698
Diamond 4Natsuki Subaru13867Saitama11685
Amethyst 7Natsuki Subaru3199Shiota Nagisa5192
Diamond 1Natsuki Subaru12347Shiota Nagisa14924
Topaz 5Nibutani Shinka2707Rem3927
Ruby 1Nibutani Shinka6737Rem12895
Amethyst 3Nibutani Shinka2220Tōru2816
Ruby 3Nibutani Shinka13509Tōru14003
Emerald 2Nishimiya Shōko11348Yuigahama Yui8509
Diamond 3Nishimiya Shōko13448Yuigahama Yui12782
Diamond 4Okabe Rintarō14690Todoroki Shōto12391
Elimination 8Okabe Rintarō25501Todoroki Shōto19323
Sapphire 3Orihara Izaya1938Yato3258
Ruby 4Orihara Izaya12870Yato15270
Diamond 5Rem14348Shiina Mashiro13187
Elimination 7Rem27005Shiina Mashiro18441
Ruby 4Rem24319Shiro12636
Elimination 6Rem31391Shiro12240
Amethyst 6Riku Dola4692Willem Kmetsch3877
Elimination 3Riku Dola22407Willem Kmetsch15794
Ruby 1Saber10093Tōsaka Rin11247
Elimination 8Saber20811Tōsaka Rin23663
Diamond 3Saber6358Yūki Asuna9306
Elimination 4Saber14612Yūki Asuna18094
Diamond 3Saitama9495Shiota Nagisa15257
Elimination 2Saitama14362Shiota Nagisa14449
Amethyst 2Saitama2576Takasu Ryūji2591
Ruby 3Saitama13640Takasu Ryūji13353
Sapphire 2Sakura Chiyo3865Tokisaki Kurumi2902
Elimination 1Sakura Chiyo17586Tokisaki Kurumi17297
Amethyst 5Satō Kazuma3103Uchiha Itachi3069
Elimination 3Satō Kazuma17179Uchiha Itachi14540
Sapphire 5Schwi Dola5155Yuigahama Yui3903
Elimination 1Schwi Dola14674Yuigahama Yui13883
Amethyst 5Shiina Mashiro4052Yuigahama Yui3910
Ruby 3Shiina Mashiro15347Yuigahama Yui15132
Amethyst 5Shiota Nagisa4069Todoroki Shōto2415
Elimination 7Shiota Nagisa20298Todoroki Shōto21069
Sapphire 6Shiota Nagisa6525Willem Kmetsch4891
Elimination 8Shiota Nagisa23125Willem Kmetsch21179
Topaz 10Takasu Ryūji3432Togashi Yūta5016
Elimination 4Takasu Ryūji14967Togashi Yūta15827
Sapphire 2Togashi Yūta2873Willem Kmetsch2889
Elimination 7Togashi Yūta20750Willem Kmetsch20977
 
gomen ne
i can no longer endure my shit taste
gonna quit
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Ennadai
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Re: Modified Pot value experiment

Post by Ennadai » Tue Dec 24, 2019 4:30 pm

ISML 2019
Unexpected matchesShow
FEV%ContestantVFVFOpponentZ-score
Diamond 140.81%Nakano Azusa96809671Tōsaka Rin4.1
Amethyst 342.20%Yuigahama Yui58545559Tōsaka Rin3.0
Ruby 343.95%Takanashi Rikka74446226Yukinoshita Yukino5.1
Elimination 545.04%Violet Evergarden1332913156Tōsaka Rin1.9
Diamond 345.60%Shiina Mashiro1139511176Tokisaki Kurumi2.1
Amethyst 245.62%Kafū Chino54175351Kanna Kamui3.6
Emerald 245.69%Okazaki Tomoya55855568Rimuru Tempest2.0
Amethyst 345.71%Dazai Osamu47074401Ayanokōji Kiyotaka3.3
Diamond 245.98%Kafū Chino101218061Schwi Dola13.0
Ruby 246.36%Lancer54595408Willem Kmetsch3.9
RematchesShow
Ruby 3Aisaka Taiga6022Yoshino6166
 
Elimination 2Aisaka Taiga9964Yoshino8961
 
Sapphire 3Araragi Koyomi6537Lancer5662
 
Elimination 3Araragi Koyomi9227Lancer10109
 
Diamond 3Archer9788Ayanokōji Kiyotaka9478
 
Elimination 2Archer9936Ayanokōji Kiyotaka8865
 
Sapphire 1Ayanokōji Kiyotaka7366Kyon5307
 
Elimination 4Ayanokōji Kiyotaka8667Kyon8312
 
Topaz 3Edogawa Conan6661Saiki Kusuo6537
 
Elimination 2Edogawa Conan8810Saiki Kusuo8667
 
Emerald 2Edward Elric5180Saiki Kusuo4994
 
Elimination 1Edward Elric9068Saiki Kusuo9026
 
Ruby 1Emilia6613Akiyama Mio5613
 
Elimination 2Emilia10608Akiyama Mio9774
 
Amethyst 1Illyasviel von Einzbern5047Alice Zuberg5033
 
Diamond 4Illyasviel von Einzbern9304Alice Zuberg9069
 
Diamond 2Izumi Sagiri10547Takanashi Rikka9443
 
Elimination 4Izumi Sagiri9623Takanashi Rikka9647
 
Sapphire 1Kanda Sorata6280Edogawa Conan6364
 
Elimination 1Kanda Sorata9326Edogawa Conan8853
 
Amethyst 2Kanna Kamui5351Kafū Chino5417
 
Elimination 4Kanna Kamui9908Kafū Chino9055
 
Emerald 2Kanna Kamui5951Nakano Azusa5703
 
Elimination 1Kanna Kamui10459Nakano Azusa10309
 
Diamond 3Lancer9651Natsuki Subaru9382
 
Elimination 2Lancer9110Natsuki Subaru8540
 
Ruby 3Levi6389Emiya Shirō4987
 
Elimination 2Levi9730Emiya Shirō9105
 
Emerald 3Misaka Mikoto6951Tachibana Kanade5994
 
Diamond 4Misaka Mikoto9399Tachibana Kanade9448
 
Emerald 2Natsuki Subaru5416Araragi Koyomi4999
 
Elimination 1Natsuki Subaru9380Araragi Koyomi8634
 
Sapphire 2Natsume Takashi6014Arima Kōsei5036
 
Diamond 3Natsume Takashi9582Arima Kōsei9068
 
Aquamarine 2Natsume Takashi5592Takasu Ryūji4270
 
Elimination 2Natsume Takashi9204Takasu Ryūji7929
 
Emerald 2Rimuru Tempest5568Okazaki Tomoya5585
 
Elimination 4Rimuru Tempest9429Okazaki Tomoya8902
 
Diamond 1Saitama8812Willem Kmetsch7849
 
Elimination 3Saitama9428Willem Kmetsch9671
 
Ruby 3Sakurajima Mai7366Yūki Asuna6639
 
Elimination 2Sakurajima Mai10807Yūki Asuna9576
 
Sapphire 2Satō Kazuma5545Natsuki Subaru5591
 
Elimination 4Satō Kazuma8300Natsuki Subaru8005
 
Amethyst 2Sawamura Spencer Eriri5064Tōru5139
 
Elimination 2Sawamura Spencer Eriri9774Tōru9421
 
Emerald 2Schwi Dola6030Isshiki Iroha5872
 
Elimination 4Schwi Dola9315Isshiki Iroha8914
 
Diamond 1Schwi Dola9570Takagi9488
 
Elimination 2Schwi Dola10261Takagi9160
 
Ruby 1Schwi Dola6302Yoshino5085
 
Elimination 1Schwi Dola11268Yoshino9587
 
Sapphire 2Shiro6826Aisaka Taiga5877
 
Elimination 3Shiro11251Aisaka Taiga10199
 
Emerald 1Shiro6114Index L. Prohibitorum5839
 
Elimination 1Shiro11261Index L. Prohibitorum9687
 
Ruby 3Takagi7155Megumin5467
 
Elimination 1Takagi10675Megumin10277
 
Diamond 1Takanashi Rikka9690Emilia10517
 
Elimination 5Takanashi Rikka14057Emilia12336
 
Ruby 3Takanashi Rikka7444Yukinoshita Yukino6226
 
Elimination 1Takanashi Rikka11565Yukinoshita Yukino9485
 
Sapphire 2Tokisaki Kurumi7026Isshiki Iroha5888
 
Elimination 1Tokisaki Kurumi11388Isshiki Iroha10540
 
Topaz 3Tōsaka Rin10588Kafū Chino4703
 
Elimination 2Tōsaka Rin13690Kafū Chino7127
 
gomen ne
i can no longer endure my shit taste
gonna quit
User avatar
Ennadai
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Re: Modified Pot value experiment

Post by Ennadai » Tue Dec 24, 2019 6:30 pm

 
   M
   W
      W%
 
   M
   W
     W%
 2019
 786
 644
  81.93%
 2018
 1859
 1434
 77.14%
  Female 
 385
 318
  82.60%
  Female 
  921
  703
 76.33%
  Male 
 385
 312
  81.04%
  Male 
  921
  723
 78.50%
  ToC
  16
  14
  87.50%
  
  
  
  
 Topaz 
  64
  49
  76.56%
 Topaz 
  480
  423
 88.13%
  Female 
  32
  27
  84.38%
  Female 
  240
  209
 87.08%
  Male 
  32
  22
  68.75%
  Male 
  240
  214
 89.17%
 Amethyst 
 168
 142
  84.52%
 Amethyst 
  368
  286
 77.72%
  Female 
  84
  70
  83.33%
  Female 
  184
  138
 75.00%
  Male 
  84
  72
  85.71%
  Male 
  184
  148
 80.43%
 Sapphire 
 144
 122
  84.72%
 Sapphire 
  300
  227
 75.67%
  Female 
  72
  58
  80.56%
  Female 
  150
  114
 76.00%
  Male 
  72
  64
  88.89%
  Male 
  150
  113
 75.33%
 Emerald 
 120
 110
  91.67%
 Emerald 
  240
  175
 72.92%
  Female 
  60
  57
  95.00%
  Female 
  120
   87
 72.50%
  Male 
  60
  53
  88.33%
  Male 
  120
   88
 73.33%
 Ruby 
  96
  79
  82.29%
 Ruby 
  204
  142
 69.61%
  Female 
  48
  40
  83.33%
  Female 
  102
   70
 68.63%
  Male 
  48
  39
  81.25%
  Male 
  102
   72
 70.59%
 Diamond 
  80
  65
  81.25%
 Diamond 
  132
   98
 74.24%
  Female 
  40
  33
  82.50%
  Female 
   66
   47
 71.21%
  Male 
  40
  32
  80.00%
  Male 
   66
   51
 77.27%
 Elimination 
  98
  63
  64.29%
 Elimination 
  118
   75
 63.56%
  Female 
  49
  33
  67.35%
  Female 
   59
   38
 64.41%
  Male 
  49
  30
  61.22%
  Male 
   59
   37
 62.71%
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
 50% ≤ FEV% < 51% 
 168
 102
  60.71%
 50% ≤ FEV% < 51% 
  261
  144
 55.17%
 51% ≤ FEV% < 52% 
 145
 109
  75.17%
 51% ≤ FEV% < 52% 
  230
  136
 59.13%
 52% ≤ FEV% < 53% 
 127
 104
  81.89%
 52% ≤ FEV% < 53% 
  222
  151
 68.02%
 53% ≤ FEV% < 54% 
 135
 127
  94.07%
 53% ≤ FEV% < 54% 
  193
  144
 74.61%
 54% ≤ FEV% < 55% 
 101
  95
  94.06%
 54% ≤ FEV% < 55% 
  191
  162
 84.82%
 55% ≤ FEV% < 56% 
  59
  59
 100.00%
 55% ≤ FEV% < 56% 
  156
  136
 87.18%
 56% ≤ FEV% < 57% 
  25
  24
  96.00%
 56% ≤ FEV% < 57% 
  100
   91
 91.00%
 57% ≤ FEV% < 58% 
  12
  11
  91.67%
 57% ≤ FEV% < 58% 
  117
  102
 87.18%
 58% ≤ FEV% < 59% 
   6
   6
 100.00%
 58% ≤ FEV% < 59% 
   98
   91
 92.86%
 59% ≤ FEV% < 60% 
   7
   6
  85.71%
 59% ≤ FEV% < 60% 
   84
   74
 88.10%
 60% ≤ FEV%
   1
   1
 100.00%
 60% ≤ FEV%
  207
  203
 98.07%
gomen ne
i can no longer endure my shit taste
gonna quit
User avatar
Ennadai
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Re: Modified Pot value experiment

Post by Ennadai » Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:50 pm

ISML 2020
Unexpected matchesShow
FEV%ContestantVFVFOpponentZ-score
Sapphire 134.10%Ōmae Kumiko40814077Sakurajima Mai4.5
Sapphire 139.17%Gray32773168Shirai Kuroko3.6
Elimination 539.27%Shirai Kuroko56575598Tokisaki Kurumi7.1
Diamond 441.03%Emilia48463644Yukinoshita Yukino8.5
Elimination 241.25%Tōsaka Rin46304586Tokisaki Kurumi7.9
Ruby 342.09%Isshiki Iroha35353433Yūki Asuna3.5
Emerald 243.53%Saten Ruiko30962712Isshiki Iroha7.8
Sapphire 543.55%Tōsaka Rin30582714Yūki Asuna2.8
Topaz 143.87%Natsume Takashi22791698Azusagawa Sakuta4.7
Diamond 443.90%Takanashi Rikka44154384Shiina Mashiro2.7
RematchesShow
Aquamarine 4Agatsuma Zen'itsu1766Emiya Shirō2833
 
Amethyst 3Agatsuma Zen'itsu1968Emiya Shirō2939
 
Aquamarine 2Ainz Ooal Gown1926Uzumaki Naruto1889
 
Sapphire 4Ainz Ooal Gown3139Uzumaki Naruto3109
 
Aquamarine 1Aisaka Taiga2060Ram1653
 
Sapphire 4Aisaka Taiga3556Ram3160
 
Aquamarine 2Akasaka Ryūnosuke1854Natsume Takashi2033
 
Amethyst 4Akasaka Ryūnosuke1951Natsume Takashi2085
 
Aquamarine 7Aki Tomoya1524Ōji Mochizō1716
 
Elimination 4Aki Tomoya3600Ōji Mochizō3792
 
Amethyst 2Akiyama Mio1553Isshiki Iroha2023
 
Emerald 4Akiyama Mio3013Isshiki Iroha3420
 
Sapphire 4Akiyama Mio3066Izumi Sagiri4067
 
Ruby 4Akiyama Mio3660Izumi Sagiri3302
 
Ruby 5Akiyama Mio3987Kafū Chino3616
 
Elimination 4Akiyama Mio4396Kafū Chino4340
 
Emerald 3Akiyama Mio3364Makise Kurisu3217
 
Elimination 2Akiyama Mio4323Makise Kurisu3620
 
Amethyst 4Akiyama Mio1733Sakurajima Mai3239
 
Emerald 2Akiyama Mio2557Sakurajima Mai2842
 
Diamond 5Akiyama Mio4153Saten Ruiko3685
 
Elimination 7Akiyama Mio6680Saten Ruiko6783
 
Topaz 4Akiyama Mio1871Tōsaka Rin2841
 
Emerald 1Akiyama Mio3513Tōsaka Rin4334
 
Topaz 2Akiyama Mio1468Yūki Asuna2750
 
Diamond 2Akiyama Mio2935Yūki Asuna4737
 
Topaz 4Amano Hina1772Emilia2562
 
Ruby 3Amano Hina2710Emilia3888
 
Sapphire 5Amano Hina2781Megumin2461
 
Diamond 4Amano Hina3538Megumin4500
 
Sapphire 4Amano Hina2914Nishimiya Shōko3764
 
Emerald 2Amano Hina2143Nishimiya Shōko2981
 
Aquamarine 6Amano Hina2186Shiina Mashiro2920
 
Diamond 1Amano Hina2293Shiina Mashiro4877
 
Sapphire 2Amano Hina1960Tokisaki Kurumi4850
 
Ruby 4Amano Hina2459Tokisaki Kurumi4931
 
Amethyst 4Amano Hina1383Yukinoshita Yukino3588
 
Ruby 1Amano Hina2361Yukinoshita Yukino5161
 
Aquamarine 5Aoyama Nanami3368Izumi Sagiri2340
 
Topaz 3Aoyama Nanami2217Izumi Sagiri2289
 
Sapphire 1Aoyama Nanami3851Sawamura Spencer Eriri2748
 
Emerald 5Aoyama Nanami3228Sawamura Spencer Eriri3347
 
Amethyst 5Aoyama Nanami2267Tomori Nao3661
 
Ruby 5Aoyama Nanami3406Tomori Nao3617
 
Aquamarine 8Aqua2765Nakano Azusa2324
 
Amethyst 4Aqua2274Nakano Azusa2213
 
Aquamarine 1Aqua1404Nishimiya Shōko2377
 
Topaz 1Aqua1553Nishimiya Shōko1993
 
Aquamarine 7Archer2017Dazai Osamu1555
 
Sapphire 1Archer3249Dazai Osamu2792
 
Topaz 2Archer1701Eugeo1770
 
Emerald 4Archer3105Eugeo2782
 
Emerald 2Archer2300Otonashi Yuzuru2425
 
Elimination 6Archer4655Otonashi Yuzuru5079
 
Aquamarine 8Archer2205Tachibana Taki3338
 
Emerald 3Archer3225Tachibana Taki3055
 
Sapphire 4Archer2852Togashi Yūta3668
 
Emerald 5Archer2764Togashi Yūta3404
 
Aquamarine 4Arima Kōsei2065Saitama2663
 
Sapphire 3Arima Kōsei2768Saitama3141
 
Aquamarine 6Ayanokōji Kiyotaka2833Joseph Joestar1267
 
Topaz 1Ayanokōji Kiyotaka2104Joseph Joestar1270
 
Amethyst 5Ayanokōji Kiyotaka3604Kamado Tanjiro2265
 
Ruby 3Ayanokōji Kiyotaka3191Kamado Tanjiro2974
 
Topaz 5Ayanokōji Kiyotaka2991Natsuki Subaru2354
 
Elimination 8Ayanokōji Kiyotaka7704Natsuki Subaru7677
 
Emerald 3Ayanokōji Kiyotaka3288Okazaki Tomoya2931
 
Elimination 7Ayanokōji Kiyotaka6524Okazaki Tomoya5392
 
Amethyst 2Ayanokōji Kiyotaka2043Otonashi Yuzuru1277
 
Diamond 1Ayanokōji Kiyotaka3317Otonashi Yuzuru3267
 
Amethyst 1Azusagawa Sakuta2599Gilgamesh1662
 
Diamond 4Azusagawa Sakuta4837Gilgamesh3264
 
Amethyst 4Azusagawa Sakuta3526Izumi Masamune965
 
Emerald 1Azusagawa Sakuta4741Izumi Masamune2910
 
Amethyst 5Azusagawa Sakuta3831Okabe Rintarō2107
 
Elimination 5Azusagawa Sakuta5901Okabe Rintarō4118
 
Sapphire 2Azusagawa Sakuta3224Okazaki Tomoya2392
 
Diamond 3Azusagawa Sakuta3867Okazaki Tomoya2362
 
Topaz 5Azusagawa Sakuta3036Totsuka Saika2032
 
Emerald 4Azusagawa Sakuta3732Totsuka Saika2431
 
Aquamarine 4Edogawa Conan2887Monkey D. Luffy1705
 
Topaz 1Edogawa Conan1951Monkey D. Luffy1349
 
Amethyst 2Edward Elric1482Kanda Sorata1664
 
Diamond 3Edward Elric2877Kanda Sorata2821
 
Aquamarine 7Edward Elric1855Nishikata1464
 
Sapphire 5Edward Elric2595Nishikata2007
 
Sapphire 2Edward Elric2507Saitama2752
 
Emerald 3Edward Elric2801Saitama2856
 
Emerald 1Emilia4008Kasumigaoka Utaha3698
 
Elimination 5Emilia5939Kasumigaoka Utaha4307
 
Sapphire 3Emilia3714Megumin2901
 
Diamond 3Emilia3180Megumin3320
 
Sapphire 5Emilia3131Nishimiya Shōko2615
 
Ruby 5Emilia3455Nishimiya Shōko3984
 
Emerald 4Emilia3105Shiina Mashiro3620
 
Elimination 7Emilia6955Shiina Mashiro6985
 
Topaz 5Emilia2355Tokisaki Kurumi3234
 
Ruby 2Emilia2652Tokisaki Kurumi3956
 
Emerald 5Emilia3487Yuigahama Yui3630
 
Elimination 6Emilia5687Yuigahama Yui5343
 
Amethyst 5Emilia2813Yukinoshita Yukino3856
 
Diamond 4Emilia4846Yukinoshita Yukino3644
 
Topaz 2Emiya Kiritsugu1186Emiya Shirō1661
 
Emerald 4Emiya Kiritsugu2513Emiya Shirō3026
 
Amethyst 5Emiya Kiritsugu2659Itsuka Shidō2778
 
Ruby 5Emiya Kiritsugu3305Itsuka Shidō3198
 
Topaz 4Emiya Kiritsugu1812Natsuki Subaru2075
 
Emerald 1Emiya Kiritsugu3303Natsuki Subaru4040
 
Amethyst 2Emiya Kiritsugu1189Shirogane Miyuki2343
 
Ruby 3Emiya Kiritsugu2503Shirogane Miyuki4261
 
Aquamarine 4Emiya Kiritsugu2445Takasu Ryūji2007
 
Elimination 6Emiya Kiritsugu4245Takasu Ryūji5274
 
Amethyst 3Emiya Kiritsugu2387Yato2279
 
Emerald 5Emiya Kiritsugu2997Yato2800
 
Topaz 5Emiya Shirō2397Itsuka Shidō2291
 
Diamond 2Emiya Shirō3366Itsuka Shidō3014
 
Sapphire 4Emiya Shirō3095Natsuki Subaru3558
 
Diamond 5Emiya Shirō3395Natsuki Subaru3663
 
Topaz 1Emiya Shirō1788Otonashi Yuzuru1533
 
Elimination 4Emiya Shirō3716Otonashi Yuzuru4006
 
Sapphire 2Emiya Shirō2599Shirogane Miyuki3160
 
Ruby 1Emiya Shirō2767Shirogane Miyuki3923
 
Topaz 3Emiya Shirō2366Yato2085
 
Ruby 2Emiya Shirō2987Yato2568
 
Aquamarine 7Eugeo1988Kaneki Ken1705
 
Amethyst 5Eugeo3091Kaneki Ken2097
 
Topaz 4Eugeo1991Togashi Yūta2114
 
Diamond 1Eugeo2683Togashi Yūta3855
 
Ruby 5Eugeo3515Willem Kmetsch2633
 
Elimination 3Eugeo4313Willem Kmetsch3437
 
Sapphire 5Fujiwara Chika2536Misaka Mikoto4197
 
Elimination 2Fujiwara Chika3971Misaka Mikoto5691
 
Topaz 5Fujiwara Chika2833Shiro2710
 
Elimination 6Fujiwara Chika5781Shiro5345
 
Aquamarine 8Fujiwara Chika3584Shokuhō Misaki3055
 
Ruby 3Fujiwara Chika3688Shokuhō Misaki3498
 
Amethyst 5Fujiwara Chika3098Takanashi Rikka3446
 
Emerald 4Fujiwara Chika3420Takanashi Rikka3496
 
Emerald 5Fujiwara Chika2944Tokisaki Kurumi4790
 
Elimination 8Fujiwara Chika8103Tokisaki Kurumi8401
 
Aquamarine 2Fukube Satoshi1994Kuroba Kaito2020
 
Amethyst 4Fukube Satoshi2186Kuroba Kaito1872
 
Sapphire 2Gilgamesh3240Izumi Masamune2820
 
Emerald 3Gilgamesh3357Izumi Masamune2898
 
Sapphire 5Gilgamesh2487Okazaki Tomoya2704
 
Diamond 5Gilgamesh3398Okazaki Tomoya3467
 
Aquamarine 4Gilgamesh2163Satō Kazuma2425
 
Amethyst 5Gilgamesh2796Satō Kazuma2901
 
Emerald 2Gilgamesh2289Togashi Yūta2534
 
Elimination 5Gilgamesh4046Togashi Yūta5203
 
Sapphire 3Gilgamesh4126Totsuka Saika2600
 
Diamond 2Gilgamesh3223Totsuka Saika3427
 
Aquamarine 8Gray2463Makise Kurisu3050
 
Topaz 1Gray1350Makise Kurisu1950
 
Aquamarine 2Hayasaka Ai2875Saber2235
 
Emerald 3Hayasaka Ai3829Saber2840
 
Topaz 5Hayasaka Ai2045Shinomiya Kaguya3586
 
Ruby 2Hayasaka Ai2789Shinomiya Kaguya3820
 
Elimination 5Hayasaka Ai4669Shinomiya Kaguya6177
 
Aquamarine 4Hayasaka Ai2585Yūki Asuna4021
 
Emerald 4Hayasaka Ai2514Yūki Asuna4443
 
Elimination 8Hayasaka Ai7534Yūki Asuna8688
 
Aquamarine 1Hirasawa Yui1793Illyasviel von Einzbern1797
 
Amethyst 4Hirasawa Yui2253Illyasviel von Einzbern2273
 
Aquamarine 6Honma Meiko1734Kafū Chino2175
 
Amethyst 2Honma Meiko1395Kafū Chino1871
 
Aquamarine 1Honma Meiko1495Takanashi Rikka2263
 
Topaz 1Honma Meiko1507Takanashi Rikka2167
 
Amethyst 3Index L. Prohibitorum2712Kasumigaoka Utaha2855
 
Ruby 1Index L. Prohibitorum3559Kasumigaoka Utaha4215
 
Topaz 5Index L. Prohibitorum2295Shiina Mashiro3093
 
Ruby 4Index L. Prohibitorum2811Shiina Mashiro4756
 
Sapphire 4Index L. Prohibitorum3609Shokuhō Misaki3823
 
Emerald 5Index L. Prohibitorum3505Shokuhō Misaki3770
 
Aquamarine 1Index L. Prohibitorum2933Tōru1395
 
Topaz 1Index L. Prohibitorum2115Tōru1704
 
Topaz 4Index L. Prohibitorum2482Yuigahama Yui2548
 
Ruby 5Index L. Prohibitorum3124Yuigahama Yui4833
 
Aquamarine 7Isaac Foster1718Lancer1911
 
Sapphire 3Isaac Foster2469Lancer3930
 
Amethyst 5Ishigami Yū3809Kanda Sorata2092
 
Elimination 4Ishigami Yū4962Kanda Sorata3387
 
Topaz 2Ishigami Yū2304Lancer1391
 
Emerald 3Ishigami Yū4248Lancer2622
 
Sapphire 5Ishigami Yū3246Tachibana Taki2157
 
Emerald 5Ishigami Yū3913Tachibana Taki2954
 
Sapphire 1Ishigami Yū3689Takasu Ryūji2596
 
Ruby 3Ishigami Yū3765Takasu Ryūji2649
 
Amethyst 2Ishigami Yū2432Willem Kmetsch899
 
Emerald 4Ishigami Yū3780Willem Kmetsch2256
 
Topaz 4Isshiki Iroha2343Izumi Sagiri2326
 
Diamond 1Isshiki Iroha4218Izumi Sagiri3261
 
Sapphire 4Isshiki Iroha3689Sakurajima Mai3851
 
Diamond 3Isshiki Iroha2784Sakurajima Mai4130
 
Aquamarine 8Isshiki Iroha2772Tomori Nao2840
 
Topaz 2Isshiki Iroha2013Tomori Nao1608
 
Amethyst 4Isshiki Iroha2334Tōsaka Rin2501
 
Diamond 5Isshiki Iroha3910Tōsaka Rin3649
 
Sapphire 2Isshiki Iroha2428Yūki Asuna3939
 
Ruby 3Isshiki Iroha3535Yūki Asuna3433
 
Aquamarine 8Itsuka Shidō2343Kamado Tanjiro2731
 
Topaz 3Itsuka Shidō2092Kamado Tanjiro2266
 
Sapphire 3Itsuka Shidō2737Natsuki Subaru3267
 
Emerald 3Itsuka Shidō2520Natsuki Subaru3570
 
Topaz 1Itsuka Shidō1237Shirogane Miyuki2321
 
Ruby 4Itsuka Shidō2130Shirogane Miyuki4904
 
Topaz 2Itsuka Shidō1480Yato1512
 
Emerald 4Itsuka Shidō2829Yato2642
 
Topaz 3Izumi Masamune1751Okazaki Tomoya2661
 
Emerald 2Izumi Masamune2253Okazaki Tomoya2394
 
Topaz 1Izumi Masamune1404Totsuka Saika1767
 
Ruby 3Izumi Masamune1992Totsuka Saika3771
 
Sapphire 5Izumi Sagiri2817Sakurajima Mai3242
 
Emerald 3Izumi Sagiri3574Sakurajima Mai3738
 
Aquamarine 8Izumi Sagiri3483Shirai Kuroko3187
 
Ruby 1Izumi Sagiri3817Shirai Kuroko4000
 
Amethyst 5Izumi Sagiri3174Tōsaka Rin3275
 
Emerald 5Izumi Sagiri3745Tōsaka Rin4072
 
Topaz 5Izumi Sagiri2254Yūki Asuna3169
 
Diamond 3Izumi Sagiri3393Yūki Asuna3859
 
Sapphire 5Kafū Chino2983Makise Kurisu2979
 
Emerald 5Kafū Chino3691Makise Kurisu3400
 
Sapphire 1Kafū Chino2488Misaka Mikoto4255
 
Ruby 1Kafū Chino2878Misaka Mikoto4736
 
Topaz 4Kafū Chino2065Saber2090
 
Emerald 4Kafū Chino3384Saber3512
 
Topaz 5Kafū Chino2679Saten Ruiko2605
 
Diamond 4Kafū Chino4551Saten Ruiko4732
 
Amethyst 5Kafū Chino2893Shirai Kuroko3181
 
Ruby 2Kafū Chino4108Shirai Kuroko3024
 
Topaz 3Kafū Chino1871Shiro2745
 
Diamond 3Kafū Chino3618Shiro3185
 
Aquamarine 8Kafū Chino2500Takanashi Rikka3489
 
Amethyst 3Kafū Chino1925Takanashi Rikka3517
 
Aquamarine 6Kamado Nezuko1350Tokisaki Kurumi3962
 
Amethyst 3Kamado Nezuko1910Tokisaki Kurumi3532
 
Elimination 4Kamado Tanjiro3363Levi4179
 
Elimination 8Kamado Tanjiro7188Levi8267
 
Emerald 1Kamado Tanjiro3711Okazaki Tomoya3552
 
Elimination 5Kamado Tanjiro4748Okazaki Tomoya4524
 
Topaz 2Kamado Tanjiro1839Otonashi Yuzuru1417
 
Diamond 2Kamado Tanjiro3332Otonashi Yuzuru3310
 
Emerald 4Kamado Tanjiro2896Takasu Ryūji2999
 
Elimination 2Kamado Tanjiro3737Takasu Ryūji3637
 
Diamond 4Kamijō Tōma3918Natsuki Subaru3551
 
Elimination 5Kamijō Tōma6332Natsuki Subaru4407
 
Topaz 5Kamijō Tōma2911Otosaka Yū2300
 
Diamond 3Kamijō Tōma3752Otosaka Yū2488
 
Sapphire 5Kamijō Tōma2515Riku Dola3168
 
Emerald 5Kamijō Tōma3760Riku Dola3286
 
Aquamarine 6Kamijō Tōma2449Saitama1826
 
Ruby 4Kamijō Tōma3982Saitama2794
 
Aquamarine 2Kaname Madoka1811Kuriyama Mirai2318
 
Topaz 2Kaname Madoka1366Kuriyama Mirai1921
 
Sapphire 5Kanda Sorata2586Saitama2442
 
Diamond 2Kanda Sorata3496Saitama3238
 
Topaz 3Kanda Sorata2417Takasu Ryūji1876
 
Elimination 5Kanda Sorata4248Takasu Ryūji4502
 
Aquamarine 2Kanna Kamui2166Kitashirakawa Tamako1996
 
Sapphire 4Kanna Kamui3234Kitashirakawa Tamako3321
 
Topaz 3Kasumigaoka Utaha1702Shiina Mashiro2808
 
Ruby 2Kasumigaoka Utaha2689Shiina Mashiro4189
 
Sapphire 5Kasumigaoka Utaha2754Shokuhō Misaki2570
 
Ruby 4Kasumigaoka Utaha3375Shokuhō Misaki3824
 
Aquamarine 8Kasumigaoka Utaha2623Tokisaki Kurumi4231
 
Diamond 3Kasumigaoka Utaha3199Tokisaki Kurumi4007
 
Topaz 5Kasumigaoka Utaha2335Yuigahama Yui2931
 
Diamond 4Kasumigaoka Utaha2915Yuigahama Yui4583
 
Aquamarine 8Kūjō Jōtarō2185Okazaki Tomoya2592
 
Amethyst 5Kūjō Jōtarō2107Okazaki Tomoya3180
 
Aquamarine 7Kyon1247Levi2709
 
Sapphire 1Kyon2688Levi3563
 
Aquamarine 1Kyon1614Uchiha Itachi1670
 
Amethyst 5Kyon2576Uchiha Itachi2664
 
Topaz 4Lancer1815Tachibana Taki2282
 
Ruby 2Lancer2914Tachibana Taki2863
 
Topaz 5Lancer2356Takasu Ryūji2373
 
Diamond 3Lancer2790Takasu Ryūji3209
 
Sapphire 2Lancer3224Willem Kmetsch2567
 
Emerald 5Lancer3564Willem Kmetsch2477
 
Emerald 4Levi2897Natsuki Subaru3282
 
Elimination 7Levi6528Natsuki Subaru6300
 
Amethyst 3Levi2749Natsume Takashi2132
 
Diamond 2Levi3884Natsume Takashi2594
 
Topaz 5Levi2629Okabe Rintarō2190
 
Ruby 2Levi2669Okabe Rintarō3236
 
Topaz 4Levi2236Satō Kazuma1871
 
Ruby 3Levi2828Satō Kazuma3601
 
Aquamarine 2Levi2766Uchiha Itachi1567
 
Topaz 2Levi2000Uchiha Itachi1293
 
Aquamarine 6Levi2535Yato1299
 
Diamond 1Levi3696Yato2402
 
Aquamarine 1Makinohara Shōko1865Saber1846
 
Amethyst 5Makinohara Shōko2766Saber3220
 
Amethyst 2Makise Kurisu1017Misaka Mikoto2691
 
Emerald 2Makise Kurisu1886Misaka Mikoto4045
 
Sapphire 1Makise Kurisu3115Saber3234
 
Diamond 5Makise Kurisu3576Saber3401
 
Sapphire 2Makise Kurisu3931Saten Ruiko2712
 
Ruby 5Makise Kurisu4233Saten Ruiko3199
 
Topaz 2Makise Kurisu1686Shirai Kuroko2086
 
Ruby 4Makise Kurisu3804Shirai Kuroko3435
 
Topaz 4Makise Kurisu1675Shiro2862
 
Ruby 1Makise Kurisu3318Shiro3765
 
Amethyst 3Megumin2576Nishimiya Shōko2969
 
Ruby 2Megumin3359Nishimiya Shōko3042
 
Amethyst 1Megumin1757Tokisaki Kurumi2926
 
Emerald 4Megumin2390Tokisaki Kurumi4407
 
Aquamarine 5Megumin3697Yuigahama Yui2196
 
Emerald 2Megumin2533Yuigahama Yui2911
 
Topaz 3Megumin1369Yukinoshita Yukino3468
 
Diamond 1Megumin3288Yukinoshita Yukino4334
 
Aquamarine 2Mikasa Ackerman2131Ōmae Kumiko2118
 
Sapphire 4Mikasa Ackerman3152Ōmae Kumiko3374
 
Topaz 3Misaka Mikoto3131Saber1609
 
Emerald 1Misaka Mikoto5751Saber2867
 
Topaz 2Misaka Mikoto2946Saten Ruiko880
 
Diamond 1Misaka Mikoto5318Saten Ruiko1865
 
Diamond 5Misaka Mikoto4583Shinomiya Kaguya4964
 
Elimination 7Misaka Mikoto7995Shinomiya Kaguya7651
 
Sapphire 2Misaka Mikoto4540Shirai Kuroko1827
 
Diamond 3Misaka Mikoto4894Shirai Kuroko1774
 
Amethyst 5Misaka Mikoto4459Shiro2043
 
Emerald 4Misaka Mikoto4359Shiro2786
 
Ruby 4Misaka Mikoto4567Tōsaka Rin2988
 
Elimination 5Misaka Mikoto7344Tōsaka Rin4366
 
Aquamarine 3Misaki Mei2097Yuigahama Yui3065
 
Amethyst 1Misaki Mei1241Yuigahama Yui3116
 
Aquamarine 7Miyazono Kaori1681Shokuhō Misaki2424
 
Topaz 3Miyazono Kaori2092Shokuhō Misaki2258
 
Aquamarine 3Morishima Hodaka1578Riku Dola3151
 
Amethyst 1Morishima Hodaka1090Riku Dola2816
 
Aquamarine 5Nakano Azusa1608Nishimiya Shōko4003
 
Amethyst 1Nakano Azusa1976Nishimiya Shōko2368
 
Aquamarine 4Nakano Miku2809Suzumiya Haruhi2466
 
Amethyst 1Nakano Miku2605Suzumiya Haruhi1739
 
Aquamarine 6Natsuki Subaru2380Otonashi Yuzuru1530
 
Sapphire 2Natsuki Subaru3071Otonashi Yuzuru2532
 
Amethyst 5Natsuki Subaru2411Shirogane Miyuki3799
 
Diamond 2Natsuki Subaru2694Shirogane Miyuki4276
 
Sapphire 1Natsuki Subaru3289Yato2842
 
Diamond 3Natsuki Subaru3334Yato2312
 
Sapphire 3Natsume Takashi2738Okabe Rintarō3898
 
Ruby 3Natsume Takashi3014Okabe Rintarō3111
 
Sapphire 5Natsume Takashi2421Satō Kazuma2497
 
Ruby 4Natsume Takashi2555Satō Kazuma3855
 
Amethyst 5Nishimiya Shōko2345Tokisaki Kurumi3996
 
Emerald 1Nishimiya Shōko3088Tokisaki Kurumi5523
 
Topaz 5Nishimiya Shōko1657Yukinoshita Yukino4560
 
Ruby 3Nishimiya Shōko2660Yukinoshita Yukino4560
 
Amethyst 4Okabe Rintarō1632Satō Kazuma2423
 
Emerald 4Okabe Rintarō3279Satō Kazuma2690
 
Aquamarine 8Okabe Rintarō2632Totsuka Saika2678
 
Sapphire 5Okabe Rintarō2607Totsuka Saika2578
 
Topaz 4Okazaki Tomoya1941Totsuka Saika1887
 
Emerald 5Okazaki Tomoya3050Totsuka Saika3319
 
Aquamarine 1Otonashi Yuzuru1530Willem Kmetsch1749
 
Diamond 4Otonashi Yuzuru3472Willem Kmetsch3249
 
Amethyst 5Otosaka Yū2248Riku Dola3559
 
Ruby 3Otosaka Yū2619Riku Dola3433
 
Aquamarine 3Otosaka Yū2436Shiota Nagisa1563
 
Topaz 2Otosaka Yū1407Shiota Nagisa1584
 
Aquamarine 6Riku Dola2472Satō Kazuma1641
 
Diamond 3Riku Dola3280Satō Kazuma2883
 
Topaz 5Riku Dola3375Togashi Yūta1990
 
Elimination 8Riku Dola7373Togashi Yūta7582
 
Topaz 1Saber1739Saten Ruiko1951
 
Ruby 4Saber3253Saten Ruiko3728
 
Amethyst 1Saber2004Shirai Kuroko2514
 
Emerald 2Saber2444Shirai Kuroko3339
 
Topaz 2Saber1472Shiro2239
 
Ruby 3Saber3123Shiro3753
 
Aquamarine 7Saber1305Yūki Asuna4041
 
Ruby 1Saber2790Yūki Asuna4374
 
Aquamarine 7Saiki Kusuo1375Shirogane Miyuki2922
 
Topaz 3Saiki Kusuo1627Shirogane Miyuki2952
 
Aquamarine 6Sakata Gintoki1646Uchiha Sasuke1609
 
Topaz 2Sakata Gintoki1463Uchiha Sasuke1355
 
Aquamarine 6Sakurajima Mai2632Schwi Dola1953
 
Ruby 2Sakurajima Mai3752Schwi Dola2762
 
Emerald 5Sakurajima Mai3382Shinomiya Kaguya4347
 
Elimination 8Sakurajima Mai8779Shinomiya Kaguya8209
 
Topaz 5Sakurajima Mai2827Tōsaka Rin2814
 
Emerald 4Sakurajima Mai3330Tōsaka Rin3197
 
Amethyst 5Sakurajima Mai3344Yūki Asuna3211
 
Diamond 5Sakurajima Mai4516Yūki Asuna4044
 
Aquamarine 4Saten Ruiko2863Shinomiya Kaguya3964
 
Emerald 4Saten Ruiko2743Shinomiya Kaguya4476
 
Amethyst 2Saten Ruiko1285Shirai Kuroko2019
 
Diamond 2Saten Ruiko2958Shirai Kuroko3540
 
Amethyst 4Saten Ruiko2150Shiro2640
 
Emerald 3Saten Ruiko3163Shiro3773
 
Diamond 1Satō Kazuma2847Shirogane Miyuki4080
 
Elimination 6Satō Kazuma3999Shirogane Miyuki6947
 
Aquamarine 6Sawamura Spencer Eriri2272Takanashi Rikka2299
 
Emerald 1Sawamura Spencer Eriri3716Takanashi Rikka4559
 
Topaz 5Sawamura Spencer Eriri2614Tomori Nao2524
 
Diamond 3Sawamura Spencer Eriri2960Tomori Nao3263
 
Amethyst 4Shiina Mashiro3047Shokuhō Misaki1931
 
Emerald 3Shiina Mashiro3847Shokuhō Misaki3056
 
Diamond 4Shiina Mashiro4384Takanashi Rikka4415
 
Elimination 8Shiina Mashiro8687Takanashi Rikka7306
 
Sapphire 4Shiina Mashiro3926Yuigahama Yui3754
 
Ruby 3Shiina Mashiro4113Yuigahama Yui3436
 
Sapphire 2Shinomiya Kaguya4243Shokuhō Misaki2469
 
Elimination 1Shinomiya Kaguya6069Shokuhō Misaki4012
 
Sapphire 4Shirai Kuroko3312Shiro3786
 
Emerald 5Shirai Kuroko3370Shiro3973
 
Amethyst 4Shirogane Miyuki3087Yato1408
 
Diamond 4Shirogane Miyuki5077Yato2630
 
Topaz 2Shokuhō Misaki1937Yuigahama Yui1966
 
Emerald 1Shokuhō Misaki3842Yuigahama Yui4213
 
Sapphire 3Tachibana Taki3219Takasu Ryūji2786
 
Emerald 2Tachibana Taki2722Takasu Ryūji2047
 
Emerald 4Tachibana Taki2570Togashi Yūta3309
 
Elimination 6Tachibana Taki4837Togashi Yūta5058
 
Sapphire 4Tachibana Taki3664Willem Kmetsch2638
 
Ruby 1Tachibana Taki3440Willem Kmetsch2295
 
Aquamarine 7Takasu Ryūji1681Togashi Yūta2081
 
Emerald 1Takasu Ryūji3300Togashi Yūta3870
 
Sapphire 5Takasu Ryūji2611Willem Kmetsch2106
 
Diamond 5Takasu Ryūji3791Willem Kmetsch3085
 
Emerald 3Tokisaki Kurumi4727Tomori Nao2403
 
Elimination 7Tokisaki Kurumi6852Tomori Nao6151
 
Sapphire 5Tokisaki Kurumi3328Yukinoshita Yukino3874
 
Diamond 5Tokisaki Kurumi4041Yukinoshita Yukino4213
 
Amethyst 2Tomioka Giyū1397Yato1574
 
Elimination 1Tomioka Giyū3351Yato3550
 
Sapphire 5Tōsaka Rin3058Yūki Asuna2714
 
Diamond 4Tōsaka Rin2884Yūki Asuna5486
 
gomen ne
i can no longer endure my shit taste
gonna quit
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Ennadai
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Re: Modified Pot value experiment

Post by Ennadai » Mon Feb 15, 2021 7:10 pm

   M
    W
      W%
 
  M
   W
      W%
2020
1646
 1367
  83.05%
 2019
786
 644
  81.93%
 Female 
 790
  662
  83.80%
  Female 
385
 318
  82.60%
 Male 
 790
  656
  83.04%
  Male 
385
 312
  81.04%
 ToC
  16
   14
  87.50%
  ToC
 16
  14
  87.50%
Topaz 
 336
  287
  85.42%
 Topaz 
 64
  49
  76.56%
 Female 
 160
  137
  85.63%
  Female 
 32
  27
  84.38%
 Male 
 160
  136
  85.00%
  Male 
 32
  22
  68.75%
Amethyst 
 362
  302
  83.43%
 Amethyst 
168
 142
  84.52%
 Female 
 160
  134
  83.75%
  Female 
 84
  70
  83.33%
 Male 
 160
  138
  86.25%
  Male 
 84
  72
  85.71%
Sapphire 
 320
  276
  86.25%
 Sapphire 
144
 122
  84.72%
 Female 
 160
  140
  87.50%
  Female 
 72
  58
  80.56%
 Male 
 160
  136
  85.00%
  Male 
 72
  64
  88.89%
Emerald 
 161
  135
  83.85%
 Emerald 
120
 110
  91.67%
 Female 
  80
   70
  87.50%
  Female 
 60
  57
  95.00%
 Male 
  80
   65
  81.25%
  Male 
 60
  53
  88.33%
Ruby 
 161
  131
  81.37%
 Ruby 
 96
  79
  82.29%
 Female 
  80
   68
  85.00%
  Female 
 48
  40
  83.33%
 Male 
  80
   62
  77.50%
  Male 
 48
  39
  81.25%
Diamond 
 160
  131
  81.88%
 Diamond 
 80
  65
  81.25%
 Female 
  80
   63
  78.75%
  Female 
 40
  33
  82.50%
 Male 
  80
   68
  85.00%
  Male 
 40
  32
  80.00%
Elimination 
 146
  105
  71.92%
 Elimination 
 98
  63
  64.29%
 Female 
  70
   50
  71.43%
  Female 
 49
  33
  67.35%
 Male 
  70
   51
  72.86%
  Male 
 49
  30
  61.22%
 
 
 
 
 
50% ≤ FEV% < 51% 
 224
  126
  56.25%
 50% ≤ FEV% < 51% 
168
 102
  60.71%
51% ≤ FEV% < 52% 
 216
  146
  67.59%
 51% ≤ FEV% < 52% 
145
 109
  75.17%
52% ≤ FEV% < 53% 
 205
  153
  74.63%
 52% ≤ FEV% < 53% 
127
 104
  81.89%
53% ≤ FEV% < 54% 
 175
  149
  85.14%
 53% ≤ FEV% < 54% 
135
 127
  94.07%
54% ≤ FEV% < 55% 
 161
  144
  89.44%
 54% ≤ FEV% < 55% 
101
  95
  94.06%
55% ≤ FEV% < 56% 
 136
  130
  95.59%
 55% ≤ FEV% < 56% 
 59
  59
 100.00%
56% ≤ FEV% < 57% 
 110
  106
  96.36%
 56% ≤ FEV% < 57% 
 25
  24
  96.00%
57% ≤ FEV% < 58% 
  82
   81
  98.78%
 57% ≤ FEV% < 58% 
 12
  11
  91.67%
58% ≤ FEV% < 59% 
  75
   73
  97.33%
 58% ≤ FEV% < 59% 
  6
   6
 100.00%
59% ≤ FEV% < 60% 
  68
   68
 100.00%
 59% ≤ FEV% < 60% 
  7
   6
  85.71%
60% ≤ FEV%
 194
  191
  98.45%
 60% ≤ FEV%
  1
   1
 100.00%
gomen ne
i can no longer endure my shit taste
gonna quit
User avatar
maglor
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Re: Modified Pot value experiment

Post by maglor » Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:26 am

Nice analysis. So, 83% accuracy in choosing the winner. That's good The cutoff seems to be near 55% FEV, where above 55% very rarely lost.
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