ISML Fantasy League

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Should you be able to lose points after a round? (See lower posts)

Yes
2
40%
No
2
40%
There's a much better way to do this!
1
20%
 
Total votes: 5
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blast335
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ISML Fantasy League

Post by blast335 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:52 pm

So it has been decided that we are going to have a Fantasy League for ISML this year!
Here's how it will work:
  • You post who you think will come out of the prelims.
  • For this round a correct guess will cause you to gain 3 points. A wrong guess has no penalty.
  • Correctly predicting 50% or more of the winners will give you a bonus of 25 points.
  • Correctly predicting 100% will give you a bonus of 50 points
Here's how it will work after the prelims
  1. The listing of matches is announced early, and a bracket is made.
  2. You predict the the first round of matches.
  3. I grade the predictions when the results come out.
  4. A correct guess gains you 5 points.
  5. An incorrect guess loses you 3 points.
  6. Correctly guessing 25% of a round of matches will give you a bonus of 10 points.
  7. Correctly guessing 50% of a round of matches will give you a bonus of 15 points.
  8. Correctly guessing 75% of a round of matches will give you a bonus of 20 points.
  9. Correctly guessing 100% of a round of matches will give you a bonus of 35 points.
  10. This process is repeated before each round of matches
The points and bonuses are not final, I welcome suggestions for balancing.

Maglor, I will need match listings a day in advance in either case so I can prepare a bracket for predictions.
Last edited by blast335 on Sat Mar 17, 2018 10:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ISML Fantasy League

Post by maglor » Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:59 pm

Please note that this is for Seasonal Tournaments, not the Main tournaments as amount of work for the Main tournaments would be much greater. Match listings will be provided as soon as it is available.
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Re: ISML Fantasy League

Post by Brean2010 » Sat Mar 17, 2018 2:38 pm

It lacks some precisions on the counting of the points.

First of all, you do not specify if the bonuses are cumulative or not (e.g. in the prelim if you guess 100% of the winners you have the bonus of 25 (the bonus for having 50% of correct guesses) + the bonus of 50 or only the bonus of 50?) .

Second thing, can we have below 0 point when we have penalties (wrong guess) after the prelim?

Third thing, I think that the attribution of points must be recalculated at each level because, more we will move forward in the competition less there will be matches therefore less we will be able to win points at each level (e.g. in the first level there will be 16 characters so 8 matches so potentially 8*5 points then in the second there will be 4 games so 4*5 points) which means that someone who makes the right guess at the first level will hardly be caught up by someone else at level 2.
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Re: ISML Fantasy League

Post by blast335 » Sat Mar 17, 2018 6:12 pm

Brean2010 wrote:
Sat Mar 17, 2018 2:38 pm
It lacks some precisions on the counting of the points.

First of all, you do not specify if the bonuses are cumulative or not (e.g. in the prelim if you guess 100% of the winners you have the bonus of 25 (the bonus for having 50% of correct guesses) + the bonus of 50 or only the bonus of 50?) .

Second thing, can we have below 0 point when we have penalties (wrong guess) after the prelim?

Third thing, I think that the attribution of points must be recalculated at each level because, more we will move forward in the competition less there will be matches therefore less we will be able to win points at each level (e.g. in the first level there will be 16 characters so 8 matches so potentially 8*5 points then in the second there will be 4 games so 4*5 points) which means that someone who makes the right guess at the first level will hardly be caught up by someone else at level 2.
You bring up some very good points.
I do intend to allow the bonuses to stack. (A 100% correct prediction in the prelims will give a total bonus of 75 points)

I agree, points should be recalculated at higher levels.
Hows about this:
  • At the first level of matches: Correct guesses = 5 points, Incorrect guesses = -3 points
  • At the second level of matches: Correct guesses = 10 points, Incorrect guesses = -6 points
  • At the third level of matches: Correct guesses = 20 points, Incorrect guesses = -12 points
You cannot have a total point value that is below zero.
Here is how I will calculate points:
(Total point value) = [(Correct guesses) - (Incorrect guesses) + (Bonuses earned)] + (Previous point total)
If the bracketed value is negative I will round it up to 0.
I plan to calculate scores each time match results are posted.

However I just thought of an interesting addition that could be made. At the end of the season, I recount the points without rounding and announce the person who had the largest point total, and the largest negative point total. (This would be in addition to the winner)
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Re: ISML Fantasy League

Post by Brean2010 » Sat Mar 17, 2018 10:07 pm

blast335 wrote:
Sat Mar 17, 2018 6:12 pm
You cannot have a total point value that is below zero.
Here is how I will calculate points:
(Total point value) = [(Correct guesses) - (Incorrect guesses) + (Bonuses earned)] + (Previous point total)
If the bracketed value is negative I will round it up to 0.
I plan to calculate scores each time match results are posted.
If I follow your calcul, your previous points cannot decrease. In my opinion the problem is that this calcul decrease the tension of the contest and I find it a bit shame, on the other hand I can understand that total points can't go below 0 to avoid penalizing too much someone who miss level 1.

I made simulations with an Excel sheet and it appears that your method is a bit fairer with unlucky people but mine is funnier I think because people can more easily lose a rank.

You can see the simulation and you can ajust values to do some tests here: https://1drv.ms/x/s!AnZgdJ6fabNPtxWniV6p8K0Ijfw6
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