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Re: 2013 Grand Finale Discussion

Posted: Mon Dec 23, 2013 8:00 pm
by HasbeenaHibiki
Glad I already know my pick, I wonder if there's going to be someone whose vote amount will be only in the double digits.

Re: 2013 Grand Finale Discussion

Posted: Mon Dec 23, 2013 8:22 pm
by Bastion
HasbeenaHibiki wrote:Glad I already know my pick, I wonder if there's going to be someone whose vote amount will be only in the double digits.
I'll bet most of the contestants will be single digits, if not just one vote. I think only the top of the standings will be above 15% and there'll too much vote-splitting to get anyone further than that.

Even Tenshi will be beaten with losing her votes to other characters.

Re: 2013 Grand Finale Discussion

Posted: Mon Dec 23, 2013 11:27 pm
by maglor
Now, I want to say something so people don't start flaming each other with baseless statements

(1) As many of you said, 72 way split is too unpredictable. You also won't get any info on how many people chose one character over another by very slim margin. It is entirely possible that someone who ends up with less than 0.1% of the vote to actually be a top 8 character for more than 10% of the voter. Therefore, please try not to overemphasize the result nor give it too much value in any analysis
(2) Many of the previous data suggest that the result is likely to be distributed in form that resembles Geometric Distribution or Beta-binomial distribution . Assuming we can get near 5000(+- 1000 ) voters , I think it is likely that the 1st place finisher will manage to get near 12% = 600 votes, give or take about 200 votes. The uncertainty is large since we lack data on doing something on this large a scale. The difference between 1st and 2nd place finisher will likely be around 30 votes, give or take about 10 votes. I expect the last place finisher to get near 0.2% of the votes thus somewhere near 10 (+- 4 ) votes as well.
(3) Above number predictions are very frail. If someone campaigns hard for a character, it is plausible for them to find about 100 additional votes given the amount of time we have from now to the event. Just 100 votes by itself may give a character a top 20 finish. Also, that 100 votes should be slightly more than the difference I expect between 1st and 5th place character. Therefore, I think it is bit foolish to predict who will finish first. In addition, if you say "***" will finish last, there exist very good chance that your statement might move someone to get 5 or more votes for "***" . Since I am expecting the difference between 71st and 72nd to be near 1 ( +- 1 ) , there exist a chance that claim of "***" finishing last may give her 3 place boost. In other word, any thing you say about any character may change the finish rank for that character, especially for the lower ranked characters.

Re: 2013 Grand Finale Discussion

Posted: Tue Dec 24, 2013 12:03 am
by Midnight-Jasper
So how many characters do we think will be tied for first place xD

Re: 2013 Grand Finale Discussion

Posted: Tue Dec 24, 2013 1:07 am
by kukimunstir
All my love for you Fenikksu-nyaa i love you <3<3 :D

Re: 2013 Grand Finale Discussion

Posted: Tue Dec 24, 2013 1:15 am
by Kordosa
KholdStare88 wrote:This is maglor's final statement before we fire him next year.
"Good. Good."
Midnight-Jasper wrote:It's now or never!
HOLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Re: 2013 Grand Finale Discussion

Posted: Tue Dec 24, 2013 2:56 am
by kanohistorm
lowest VF prediction: 64

Re: 2013 Grand Finale Discussion

Posted: Tue Dec 24, 2013 5:18 am
by maglor
kanohistorm wrote:lowest VF prediction: 64
Wow! If this becomes true when we have less than 10,000 voters, I would be elated for very good reason.

Re: 2013 Grand Finale Discussion

Posted: Tue Dec 24, 2013 5:21 am
by Momo
inb4 all my favorites get no votes and MJ rejoices

Re: 2013 Grand Finale Discussion

Posted: Tue Dec 24, 2013 5:27 am
by Desufire
Kurisu gets at least one vote from me so that's not happening momo

Re: 2013 Grand Finale Discussion

Posted: Tue Dec 24, 2013 5:28 am
by Momento10
I am personally expecting around 9000 votes myself (I think that was the average amount from regular season this year?). It is like nomination day when you forgot it started at Day 1, but you're lucky to have Days 2-7 to think it over and submit your favorites. I think a bit of advertisement here and there would grant it the 10,000 vote count. At the very least, this match will tell us exactly how many people vote here consistently, given a +- (insert number here) for people who come during "special days."

Re: 2013 Grand Finale Discussion

Posted: Tue Dec 24, 2013 6:40 am
by Bastion
Momento10 wrote:I am personally expecting around 9000 votes myself (I think that was the average amount from regular season this year?). It is like nomination day when you forgot it started at Day 1, but you're lucky to have Days 2-7 to think it over and submit your favorites. I think a bit of advertisement here and there would grant it the 10,000 vote count.
I would be surprised at a much lower number, some people probably think the year's over for ISML and won't return until the first.

The first year we had the male tournament, there were already people thinking it was the end once the finals were over. Didn't even bother to look at the schedule probably.
I think advertisement would have been needed to be done back during regular season for it to have a significant effect.

Re: 2013 Grand Finale Discussion

Posted: Tue Dec 24, 2013 7:01 am
by 10ZHAbin
Series with more than 1 lead characters like K-on! and Haganai is going be to heavily disadvantaged at this.

Re: 2013 Grand Finale Discussion

Posted: Tue Dec 24, 2013 8:11 am
by maglor
10ZHAbin wrote:Series with more than 1 lead characters like K-on! and Haganai is going be to heavily disadvantaged at this.
Yup. So that will make all of our Tiara holders very vulnerable.

Re: 2013 Grand Finale Discussion

Posted: Tue Dec 24, 2013 8:13 am
by loudmouth
You know…Holo actually has a decent chance o.o
I also wouldn't be surprised if Homura took it. The movie boost must exist at least a little right?

Re: 2013 Grand Finale Discussion

Posted: Tue Dec 24, 2013 8:21 am
by 10ZHAbin
Talk about Holo...
While I know that making map and graph for a 72 way match is impossible, can the staff post the winner of Russia in the result thread?

Re: 2013 Grand Finale Discussion

Posted: Tue Dec 24, 2013 8:44 am
by maglor
10ZHAbin wrote:Talk about Holo...
While I know that making map and graph for a 72 way match is impossible, can the staff post the winner of Russia in the result thread?
That is possible, but you need to buy some doughnuts and bribe Kholdy with it.

Re: 2013 Grand Finale Discussion

Posted: Tue Dec 24, 2013 11:56 am
by kanohistorm
maglor wrote:
10ZHAbin wrote:Talk about Holo...
While I know that making map and graph for a 72 way match is impossible, can the staff post the winner of Russia in the result thread?
That is possible, but you need to buy some doughnuts and bribe Kholdy with it.
tell kholdy to come to my local card tournament. I do bring doughnuts from time to time in honour of shinobu

Re: 2013 Grand Finale Discussion

Posted: Tue Dec 24, 2013 12:54 pm
by Momo
10ZHAbin wrote:Talk about Holo...
While I know that making map and graph for a 72 way match is impossible, can the staff post the winner of Russia in the result thread?
inb4 Russia betrays Horo and Kurisu for Yuki </3

Re: 2013 Grand Finale Discussion

Posted: Tue Dec 24, 2013 12:56 pm
by kanohistorm
Numph4tiara