FANTASY: 2011 Prelims I-3

Nominations and other events occurring before the Main Tournament
User avatar
Matteas
Osananajimi
Osananajimi
Posts: 148
Joined: Sun Mar 22, 2009 10:14 am
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: Hakamada Hinata to get into the regular season.
Location: Prague, Czech Republic
Contact:

Re: FANTASY: 2011 Prelims I-3

Post by Matteas » Sat Mar 05, 2011 5:16 pm

4 misses, but the most hurtful ones.

KholdStare: Is it possible to include a column with actual ranking of each participant? I'm sure everyone would be happy to see it there.
ImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImage
User avatar
bluemage
Intelligent device
Intelligent device
Posts: 1355
Joined: Sun Dec 27, 2009 5:32 am
Worships: Reimu Hakurei
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: A happy and peaceful life.
Location: Canada
Contact:

Re: FANTASY: 2011 Prelims I-3

Post by bluemage » Sat Mar 05, 2011 5:40 pm

Missed Iwasawa, Last Order, and Mato. Made the mistake with Mato since I didn't assess her strength properly, but I would never have seen the Iwasawa and Last Order upsets coming. Much improvement is still needed from me to even try to get back into this period of Fantasy.
ImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImage
#1<---------- ISML 2012 Top 8! ---------->#8 ---------- #8<---------- ISML 2012 Bottom 8! ---------->#16
Character Cards & Signature Slivers Made by Marinara, Hikari-chan & melange
Participant from 2008-2012
User avatar
Nemingway
Mahjong tile
Mahjong tile
Posts: 219
Joined: Sat Sep 18, 2010 9:37 pm
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: Aiming for an harem ending \o
Location: Belgium

Re: FANTASY: 2011 Prelims I-3

Post by Nemingway » Sat Mar 05, 2011 10:36 pm

3 miss and finished 3rd. But how in the world we could guess Iwasawa to win against Merry Nightmare ? Any explanation ? What surprised me is the fact that Iwasawa had few screen time as she disappeared early in the series...
Image

*An Harem cannot exist without a boy !*
User avatar
Team Rocket Elite
Moon princess
Moon princess
Posts: 3211
Joined: Wed Feb 18, 2009 2:43 am
Badges:
Image
Worships: Bernkastel
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: dried plums to go with the tea.

Re: FANTASY: 2011 Prelims I-3

Post by Team Rocket Elite » Sat Mar 05, 2011 11:01 pm

Nemingway wrote:3 miss and finished 3rd. But how in the world we could guess Iwasawa to win against Merry Nightmare ? Any explanation ? What surprised me is the fact that Iwasawa had few screen time as she disappeared early in the series...
What I did was I looked at how Iwasawa did against Mio and how Shiina did against Kagami. Those performances make Iwasawa and Shiina look pretty close together in strength and gives a comparison against Mio and Kagami who have known levels of strength. Iwasawa and Shiina also had similar nomination totals which suggest that the assumption of similar strength may be true. I thought this made Iwasawa and Shiina look a bit too strong so I reduced my expectations of their strength a bit. This was was ultimately a mistake since Iwasawa seems like she really was that strong and Shiina probably is as well.

Merry Nightmare is a bit harder to judge. I used her performance against Ayatsuji Tsukasa and an assumption that the Amagami SS characters had similar strength with Haruka being the strongest based on nominations. Nanasaki Ai was only as strong as Kobato which suggested Amagami characters aren't that strong. Haruka looked pretty good against Nagi but I didn't place much weight on it because I'm not yet sure if Nagi has fallen like the other Hayate characters. I placed Ayatsuji in between the two and closer to Ai and estimated Merry's strength from there. It's a rough prediction but it appears to have worked out well.

Putting all these fragments of chaos together, I came up with strength values for Iwasawa and Merry that has Iwasawa winning (with roughly 51.3% of the values when counting votes for the third character as abstains). If I didn't screw up and low my expectations for Iwasawa, I would have gotten a bit closer to predicting the sizable win she actually ended up with (would have predicted 53.75% compared to the actual 55.89%).

As for how Iwasawa is as strong as she is despite the lack of screentime, I think it's because she made good use of the screentime she did get. I definitely liked her a lot. It also helps that Angel Beats is incredibly popular so even the less popular characters get a lot of fans. Prior to her first match, I never would have guesses that Iwasawa was as strong as she is, though.
A miracle that you believe in when you know it won't happen......... is hope.
User avatar
Nemingway
Mahjong tile
Mahjong tile
Posts: 219
Joined: Sat Sep 18, 2010 9:37 pm
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: Aiming for an harem ending \o
Location: Belgium

Re: FANTASY: 2011 Prelims I-3

Post by Nemingway » Sat Mar 05, 2011 11:15 pm

Thanks a lot TRE ! Now I can see why Iwasawa won thanks to your analyze/explanation. I did'nt think of all of this and it shows me how bad I am as a predictor xD I always though of how much the series is popular, the screentime of a character and her development (like Charlotte and Laura Baudewig from Infinite Stratos) to evaluate her strength but it seems to be not sufficient ! I have to change my method !
Image

*An Harem cannot exist without a boy !*
User avatar
Momento10
Electromaster
Electromaster
Posts: 6053
Joined: Fri May 14, 2010 1:18 am
Badges:
ImageImageImageImage
Worships: Setsumi Sakura
Melon Pan: 88
2019 Female Favorite: Tōma Kazusa
2019 Male Favorite: Ayanokōji Kiyotaka
2018 Female Favorite: Nishimiya Shōko
2018 Male Favorite: Sagara Sōsuke
2017 Female Favorite: Megumin
2017 Male Favorite: Zen Wistalia
Wish: ISML - A new face for the champion.
KBM - to revive
AST - to encourage international participation
IRL - My definition of peace and tranquility.

Re: FANTASY: 2011 Prelims I-3

Post by Momento10 » Sun Mar 06, 2011 12:15 am

I dropped significantly once again. Iwasawa, Last Order, and Kuroi got the win? How was there such a shift in votes so quickly? I did not see this coming. I need to rethink exactly how I should predict things.
Image
User avatar
Wolfnagi
Necromancer
Necromancer
Posts: 881
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:07 am
Worships: Sanzen'in Nagi
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: Want Nagi to win this year ISML....
And 1 Million bucks....
Location: Within a multi-verse
Contact:

Re: FANTASY: 2011 Prelims I-3

Post by Wolfnagi » Sun Mar 06, 2011 6:51 pm

34 and missed 4,
I'm starting to lost hope to the world...........
ImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImage
Locked