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Re: FANTASY: 2011 Prelims I-3

Posted: Sat Mar 05, 2011 5:16 pm
by Matteas
4 misses, but the most hurtful ones.

KholdStare: Is it possible to include a column with actual ranking of each participant? I'm sure everyone would be happy to see it there.

Re: FANTASY: 2011 Prelims I-3

Posted: Sat Mar 05, 2011 5:40 pm
by bluemage
Missed Iwasawa, Last Order, and Mato. Made the mistake with Mato since I didn't assess her strength properly, but I would never have seen the Iwasawa and Last Order upsets coming. Much improvement is still needed from me to even try to get back into this period of Fantasy.

Re: FANTASY: 2011 Prelims I-3

Posted: Sat Mar 05, 2011 10:36 pm
by Nemingway
3 miss and finished 3rd. But how in the world we could guess Iwasawa to win against Merry Nightmare ? Any explanation ? What surprised me is the fact that Iwasawa had few screen time as she disappeared early in the series...

Re: FANTASY: 2011 Prelims I-3

Posted: Sat Mar 05, 2011 11:01 pm
by Team Rocket Elite
Nemingway wrote:3 miss and finished 3rd. But how in the world we could guess Iwasawa to win against Merry Nightmare ? Any explanation ? What surprised me is the fact that Iwasawa had few screen time as she disappeared early in the series...
What I did was I looked at how Iwasawa did against Mio and how Shiina did against Kagami. Those performances make Iwasawa and Shiina look pretty close together in strength and gives a comparison against Mio and Kagami who have known levels of strength. Iwasawa and Shiina also had similar nomination totals which suggest that the assumption of similar strength may be true. I thought this made Iwasawa and Shiina look a bit too strong so I reduced my expectations of their strength a bit. This was was ultimately a mistake since Iwasawa seems like she really was that strong and Shiina probably is as well.

Merry Nightmare is a bit harder to judge. I used her performance against Ayatsuji Tsukasa and an assumption that the Amagami SS characters had similar strength with Haruka being the strongest based on nominations. Nanasaki Ai was only as strong as Kobato which suggested Amagami characters aren't that strong. Haruka looked pretty good against Nagi but I didn't place much weight on it because I'm not yet sure if Nagi has fallen like the other Hayate characters. I placed Ayatsuji in between the two and closer to Ai and estimated Merry's strength from there. It's a rough prediction but it appears to have worked out well.

Putting all these fragments of chaos together, I came up with strength values for Iwasawa and Merry that has Iwasawa winning (with roughly 51.3% of the values when counting votes for the third character as abstains). If I didn't screw up and low my expectations for Iwasawa, I would have gotten a bit closer to predicting the sizable win she actually ended up with (would have predicted 53.75% compared to the actual 55.89%).

As for how Iwasawa is as strong as she is despite the lack of screentime, I think it's because she made good use of the screentime she did get. I definitely liked her a lot. It also helps that Angel Beats is incredibly popular so even the less popular characters get a lot of fans. Prior to her first match, I never would have guesses that Iwasawa was as strong as she is, though.

Re: FANTASY: 2011 Prelims I-3

Posted: Sat Mar 05, 2011 11:15 pm
by Nemingway
Thanks a lot TRE ! Now I can see why Iwasawa won thanks to your analyze/explanation. I did'nt think of all of this and it shows me how bad I am as a predictor xD I always though of how much the series is popular, the screentime of a character and her development (like Charlotte and Laura Baudewig from Infinite Stratos) to evaluate her strength but it seems to be not sufficient ! I have to change my method !

Re: FANTASY: 2011 Prelims I-3

Posted: Sun Mar 06, 2011 12:15 am
by Momento10
I dropped significantly once again. Iwasawa, Last Order, and Kuroi got the win? How was there such a shift in votes so quickly? I did not see this coming. I need to rethink exactly how I should predict things.

Re: FANTASY: 2011 Prelims I-3

Posted: Sun Mar 06, 2011 6:51 pm
by Wolfnagi
34 and missed 4,
I'm starting to lost hope to the world...........