RESULTS: 2013 Prelims III-1

Nominations and other events occurring before the Main Tournament
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Re: RESULTS: 2013 Prelims III-1

Post by DurianDude » Tue Mar 19, 2013 5:14 am

HasbeenaHibiki wrote:
Desufire wrote:
Hachiko wrote:
Desufire wrote:
DurianDude wrote:Tsukihi wins big while Ritsu squeaks by. I feel a lot more confident about Tsukihi winning after Ritsu's weak performance. Other than that, results were awful. Karen won, but Akarin, Kyouko, and madoka lost. Talk about poop. But as long as Tsukihi and I guess Karen make it I'm satisfied.
In my tradition of crushing your hopes and dreams, Mayuri was one of the weakest characters in the prelims, while Minami was middle tier. Tsukihi's chances are still 50/50
Hyouka is a one-character show. Period. Same thing with Shana, even though Hecate proved otherwise. I, for one, am in agreement with Alex's verdict on this.
Mayuri is from Steins;Gate? Minami is from Baka to Test? Tsukihi is from Bakamonogatari?

Where the fuck did Hyouka come from?
I guess it is a typo and supposed to be Baka Test?
But Baka test isn't a one character show. This is getting confusing.
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Re: RESULTS: 2013 Prelims III-1

Post by RegalStar » Tue Mar 19, 2013 5:15 am

Well Steins;Gate is a one-character show too in ISML. Probably confused Mayuri for Mayaka.
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Re: RESULTS: 2013 Prelims III-1

Post by Team Rocket Elite » Tue Mar 19, 2013 5:18 am

Near the end of Phase 2, Dekomori has a pretty bad performance against Silica and Homura. She follows that up with another lousy performance against Himenokouji Akiko. Dekomori seemed like a safe bet to make the regular season for most of the preliminaries but she's really dropped the ball here. Kotegawa Yui looked noticibly better against someone I would consider to be a stronger opponent than Akiko. Dekomori has exactly one chance to get her act together or Kotegawa Yui is going to take her out.

Momo and Takanashi Touka put up strong performances crushing their opponents by more than I thought they would. Both characters already looked good for making the regular season but they will aparently be giving their best right to the end without slacking off.

Sky Raker has a good showing against Rias while Anna looks a bit weak against Wakana. I initially expected a close match between the two characters who are a lot stronger than they probably should be for their lack for screentime. However, it seems like Sky Raker may have the edge in the battle. Despite initial promise, the K character might not make it to the regular season in the end.

The other Puella Magi have dropped out leaving Homura alone. Homura does just as well as I expected she would which might be just enough to make the regular season. The shift away from mutli-way matches to one on one matches doesn't seem to be hurting her much. I didn't reallt expect Sakura Kyouko to lose already but she would just get killed by Takanashi Touka if she did advance.

The Saki Side A manga comes to an end and so does Toki's run. She didn't stand a chance against Kurisu but it's nice to see she didn't get killed as badly as I thought she would.
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Re: RESULTS: 2013 Prelims III-1

Post by aly_angelflight » Tue Mar 19, 2013 5:36 am

So I won't know anywhere from 47%-61% of the girls in Nova this year...

(Well, still better than last year's Nova rates, considering I only knew 81% of the Nova contestants up to the Tiara match-ups, where it dropped significantly to 69% (solely due to OreImo). Heck, I still don't know 64% of last year's Nova contestants. ^^;)
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Re: RESULTS: 2013 Prelims III-1

Post by Hachiko » Tue Mar 19, 2013 6:05 am

Desufire wrote:
Hachiko wrote:
Desufire wrote:
DurianDude wrote:Tsukihi wins big while Ritsu squeaks by. I feel a lot more confident about Tsukihi winning after Ritsu's weak performance. Other than that, results were awful. Karen won, but Akarin, Kyouko, and madoka lost. Talk about poop. But as long as Tsukihi and I guess Karen make it I'm satisfied.
In my tradition of crushing your hopes and dreams, Mayuri was one of the weakest characters in the prelims, while Minami was middle tier. Tsukihi's chances are still 50/50
Hyouka is a one-character show. Period. Same thing with Shana, even though Hecate proved otherwise. I, for one, am in agreement with Alex's verdict on this.
Mayuri is from Steins;Gate? Minami is from Baka to Test? Tsukihi is from Bakamonogatari?

Where the fuck did Hyouka come from?
Let's be real here. The only relevant character in the ISML from Hyouka is Eru. That's it. No one else. One-character series.
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Re: RESULTS: 2013 Prelims III-1

Post by loudmouth » Tue Mar 19, 2013 6:22 am

Hachiko wrote:
Desufire wrote:
Hachiko wrote:
Desufire wrote:
DurianDude wrote:Tsukihi wins big while Ritsu squeaks by. I feel a lot more confident about Tsukihi winning after Ritsu's weak performance. Other than that, results were awful. Karen won, but Akarin, Kyouko, and madoka lost. Talk about poop. But as long as Tsukihi and I guess Karen make it I'm satisfied.
In my tradition of crushing your hopes and dreams, Mayuri was one of the weakest characters in the prelims, while Minami was middle tier. Tsukihi's chances are still 50/50
Hyouka is a one-character show. Period. Same thing with Shana, even though Hecate proved otherwise. I, for one, am in agreement with Alex's verdict on this.
Mayuri is from Steins;Gate? Minami is from Baka to Test? Tsukihi is from Bakamonogatari?

Where the fuck did Hyouka come from?
Let's be real here. The only relevant character in the ISML from Hyouka is Eru. That's it. No one else. One-character series.
I agree with you, but I believe Desufire is confused as to why you decided to quote this conversation to make your point. They were talking about bracket L so it's odd that Hyouka entered the conversation.
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Re: RESULTS: 2013 Prelims III-1

Post by JLoable91 » Tue Mar 19, 2013 6:57 am

Natsume lost to a stupid character that'll probably beat Inaban next round...
*sigh
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Re: RESULTS: 2013 Prelims III-1

Post by kukimunstir » Tue Mar 19, 2013 7:32 am

Good luck Tsukihi. I love you
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Re: RESULTS: 2013 Prelims III-1

Post by maglor » Tue Mar 19, 2013 7:45 am

This is what Modoka Magica girls were up against, ever since their ISMl debut in 2011

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to even now

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The next match is crucial showdown between anti-Madoka voters and pro-Madoka voters. Homura's win in the next match can break the backs of the anti-Madoka voters as this win would mean they would have to forever see her enshrined as a Stella Candidate. If you demoralize and rout even just half of the 2000 anti-Madoka voters, Homura may make the playoffs, judging by 2012 records. Do check 2012 records and see how often Homura lost by less than a quarter of 2000.

By the way, number of anti-Madoka voters used to be 3000+ up till round 1 of Phase II. When Homura won the round 1 match of Phase II despite 3000+ hate votes, hundreds of them disappeared, leading to better than expected performance of all Madoka girls in round 2 of Phase II. The reason is that a victory by a character often breaks up some portion of the anti-vote-lock against that character.

In ISML, voters often become "locked in" to however they voted for a character. If they, for whatever the reason, voted against a girl in the first time they had a chance, they tend to continue to vote against them. It takes a several consecutive victory by a character to break free of this anti-vote-lock. Madoka Magica girls debuted poorly in ISML 2011 due to the Tsunami delaying final 2 episodes by a month. This probably locked in many voters into anti-voting faction. Such a lock can be broken. The best example is Misaka Mikoto, who did very poorly in 2009, but after pulling off 12 straight wins in 2009 Relegation tournament, with the wins fueled by airing of the Railgun series, she quickly became one of the most powerful character in ISML, winning the Tiara in 2011. With the 3rd movie, and more importantly, possible 2nd season in the future for Madoka Magica girls, there is a chance that what happened with Railgun girls can happen with Madoka Magica girls. But this possibility will be of no avail if Homura loses the next match.

This final round match may even determine the how the future of ISML will look. Having a large anti-voting block in existence is not something good for any moe tournament. If one anti-voting block enjoys success in destroying the girls from a series, other anti-voting blocks will soon arise. Instead of voters being fueled by love of a character, it will be the hate that drives them. When this happens, ISML may quickly descend into mud slinging match where everyone will be offending everyone else with steady stream of negative campaigning. If Homura wins and break up the largest and most persistent Anti-voting block ISML ever had, it can help increase the positive campaigning for any characters and dissuade other anti-voting blocks from forming. If Homura loses, that will let voters know how powerful anti-voting blocks are, and will encourage more of these anti-voting blocks to form and make negative campaigning much much more prevalent. If you have hard time deciding whether you like Homura or Elsie more than the other, I beg you to consider the fact that vote for Homura can be a decisive blow against anti-voting fad which was the main cause of demise of many moe tournaments. If you like Homura, please campaign for her so that campaigning for a character remains more powerful compared to campaigning against a character.
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Re: RESULTS: 2013 Prelims III-1

Post by Hachiko » Tue Mar 19, 2013 8:27 am

loudmouth wrote:
Hachiko wrote:
Desufire wrote:
Hachiko wrote:
Desufire wrote:
DurianDude wrote:Tsukihi wins big while Ritsu squeaks by. I feel a lot more confident about Tsukihi winning after Ritsu's weak performance. Other than that, results were awful. Karen won, but Akarin, Kyouko, and madoka lost. Talk about poop. But as long as Tsukihi and I guess Karen make it I'm satisfied.
In my tradition of crushing your hopes and dreams, Mayuri was one of the weakest characters in the prelims, while Minami was middle tier. Tsukihi's chances are still 50/50
Hyouka is a one-character show. Period. Same thing with Shana, even though Hecate proved otherwise. I, for one, am in agreement with Alex's verdict on this.
Mayuri is from Steins;Gate? Minami is from Baka to Test? Tsukihi is from Bakamonogatari?

Where the fuck did Hyouka come from?
Let's be real here. The only relevant character in the ISML from Hyouka is Eru. That's it. No one else. One-character series.
I agree with you, but I believe Desufire is confused as to why you decided to quote this conversation to make your point. They were talking about bracket L so it's odd that Hyouka entered the conversation.
My apologies. I forgot to apply my brain bleach after viewing the results that I ended up sounding off off of a random quote. I will counter with this: Steins;Gate is also a one-character show, cause the only one that matters in this tournament is Kurisu.
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Re: RESULTS: 2013 Prelims III-1

Post by Hachiko » Tue Mar 19, 2013 8:39 am

maglor wrote:This is what Modoka Magica girls were up against, ever since their ISMl debut in 2011

Image

to even now

Image

The next match is crucial showdown between anti-Madoka voters and pro-Madoka voters. Homura's win in the next match can break the backs of the anti-Madoka voters as this win would mean they would have to forever see her enshrined as a Stella Candidate. If you demoralize and rout even just half of the 2000 anti-Madoka voters, Homura may make the playoffs, judging by 2012 records. Do check 2012 records and see how often Homura lost by less than a quarter of 2000.

By the way, number of anti-Madoka voters used to be 3000+ up till round 1 of Phase II. When Homura won the round 1 match of Phase II despite 3000+ hate votes, hundreds of them disappeared, leading to better than expected performance of all Madoka girls in round 2 of Phase II. The reason is that a victory by a character often breaks up some portion of the anti-vote-lock against that character.

In ISML, voters often become "locked in" to however they voted for a character. If they, for whatever the reason, voted against a girl in the first time they had a chance, they tend to continue to vote against them. It takes a several consecutive victory by a character to break free of this anti-vote-lock. Madoka Magica girls debuted poorly in ISML 2011 due to the Tsunami delaying final 2 episodes by a month. This probably locked in many voters into anti-voting faction. Such a lock can be broken. The best example is Misaka Mikoto, who did very poorly in 2009, but after pulling off 12 straight wins in 2009 Relegation tournament, with the wins fueled by airing of the Railgun series, she quickly became one of the most powerful character in ISML, winning the Tiara in 2011. With the 3rd movie, and more importantly, possible 2nd season in the future for Madoka Magica girls, there is a chance that what happened with Railgun girls can happen with Madoka Magica girls. But this possibility will be of no avail if Homura loses the next match.

This final round match may even determine the how the future of ISML will look. Having a large anti-voting block in existence is not something good for any moe tournament. If one anti-voting block enjoys success in destroying the girls from a series, other anti-voting blocks will soon arise. Instead of voters being fueled by love of a character, it will be the hate that drives them. When this happens, ISML may quickly descend into mud slinging match where everyone will be offending everyone else with steady stream of negative campaigning. If Homura wins and break up the largest and most persistent Anti-voting block ISML ever had, it can help increase the positive campaigning for any characters and dissuade other anti-voting blocks from forming. If Homura loses, that will let voters know how powerful anti-voting blocks are, and will encourage more of these anti-voting blocks to form and make negative campaigning much much more prevalent. If you have hard time deciding whether you like Homura or Elsie more than the other, I beg you to consider the fact that vote for Homura can be a decisive blow against anti-voting fad which was the main cause of demise of many moe tournaments. If you like Homura, please campaign for her so that campaigning for a character remains more powerful compared to campaigning against a character.
Also, depending on what happens in the Bracket H final, this is going to mobilize the Madoka anon voters in Japan because they are seeing what you are doing and will respond swiftly come summertime. This will not sit well with them.
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Re: RESULTS: 2013 Prelims III-1

Post by Darth Blitzer » Tue Mar 19, 2013 10:47 am

maglor wrote: In ISML, voters often become "locked in" to however they voted for a character. If they, for whatever the reason, voted against a girl in the first time they had a chance, they tend to continue to vote against them. It takes a several consecutive victory by a character to break free of this anti-vote-lock. Madoka Magica girls debuted poorly in ISML 2011 due to the Tsunami delaying final 2 episodes by a month. This probably locked in many voters into anti-voting faction. Such a lock can be broken. The best example is Misaka Mikoto, who did very poorly in 2009, but after pulling off 12 straight wins in 2009 Relegation tournament, with the wins fueled by airing of the Railgun series, she quickly became one of the most powerful character in ISML, winning the Tiara in 2011. With the 3rd movie, and more importantly, possible 2nd season in the future for Madoka Magica girls, there is a chance that what happened with Railgun girls can happen with Madoka Magica girls. But this possibility will be of no avail if Homura loses the next match.
The problem with that comparsion is that Misaka Mikoto is such an outlier. She went from being a minor character in a mediocre show to being the main character of a spin off that i think it's fair to say is perceived to be much more engaging and interesting, especially characterization wise. At that same time ISML was growing massively in size relative to what it had been, at the start of 2009, Mikoto won a match against Shiori with only 916 votes, by the end of 2009 winning characters were starting to see upwards of 1900, 2000 votes, and by 2010 winners in the regular season were seeing 3k votes.

To me, it would be difficult for Homura/Madoka Magica to replicate the context that gave rise to Mikoto, even if we accept a worst case analysis of large numbers of anti-voters that i guess you're theoretically proposing could be swayed by more Madoka Magica/Victory Momentum
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Re: RESULTS: 2013 Prelims III-1

Post by maglor » Tue Mar 19, 2013 12:55 pm

Darth Blitzer wrote:
The problem with that comparsion is that Misaka Mikoto is such an outlier. She went from being a minor character in a mediocre show to being the main character of a spin off that i think it's fair to say is perceived to be much more engaging and interesting, especially characterization wise. At that same time ISML was growing massively in size relative to what it had been, at the start of 2009, Mikoto won a match against Shiori with only 916 votes, by the end of 2009 winning characters were starting to see upwards of 1900, 2000 votes, and by 2010 winners in the regular season were seeing 3k votes.

To me, it would be difficult for Homura/Madoka Magica to replicate the context that gave rise to Mikoto, even if we accept a worst case analysis of large numbers of anti-voters that i guess you're theoretically proposing could be swayed by more Madoka Magica/Victory Momentum
Difficult, yes. Still, if you check last year's results, you can see how close Homura was from having a winning season. Just a little momentum swing may be all that is needed to make Homura a playoff contender this year, given the peculiarities she have. Win today will probably let Homura enjoy better win-loss records compared to last year at worst. In contrast, Elsie was much more lucky compared to Homura last year, and her average performance in prelim this year is much worse than Homura. Due to all these reasons, I think it is likely that Homura will have better records compared to what Elsie will have, if Homura makes 2013 regular season instead of Elsie.
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Re: RESULTS: 2013 Prelims III-1

Post by Momo » Tue Mar 19, 2013 3:41 pm

^*gives out cookies for Homuvotes* wait I can't do that, not even to save the soulgem of ISML

But if Homura and Kurisu don't make it in I'll be sad. And when I'm sad I don't bake cookies for a long, long, long time... </3 Just look at what happened after N-II groupings killed any hope of advancement for most of my favorites :'( What are you saying? Of course the delay doesn't have to do with laziness! xP

lol I just realized that my top 3 Nova 2012 probably won't be in Regular Season this year sadface

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Re: RESULTS: 2013 Prelims III-1

Post by Sedon » Tue Mar 19, 2013 4:20 pm

Wahhhh..
Sakura Kyouko ;A;
Watashi.. even if its already predicted, its still sad to see her lose @_@

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Re: RESULTS: 2013 Prelims III-1

Post by Zefyris » Tue Mar 19, 2013 5:47 pm

The problem with that comparsion is that Misaka Mikoto is such an outlier. She went from being a minor character in a mediocre show to being the main character of a spin off that i think it's fair to say is perceived to be much more engaging and interesting
wait, wait, what? Order in quality in the toaru support goes something like this Index LN> Railgun manga>Index anime series>Railgun anime>Index manga . Obviously Railgun is far more developed as a character in a anime where she is the main character than in an anime where she is only a support character, so this probably played a good role in her raise in popularity, as well as it made her a more interesting character all around, but that's about it. How in hell the first railgun series was more interesting than the main index show, that's complete nonsense IMO.

You obviously haven't read the LN, nor did you see the results of kono light novel wa sugoi! 's rankings. Misaka has been ranking first in the best female LN character for 4 consecutive years, beating other popular characters like Asuna from SAO, characters from haganai and oreimo and so on each year, again and again. Misaka didn't have to wait for a poor Railgun anime series to be overly liked and popular, you know.

BTW, if the second series of railgun that will start airing in less than one month properly adapt the second railgun manga arc, then NOW we will have a railgun anime better than the Index series (although, that's probably only until the third Index series, considering how awesome are some of the LN following the 14th (which would be the first one to be adapted in the next series)). But the first railgun anime series? Err... Hell no.
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Re: RESULTS: 2013 Prelims III-1

Post by RegalStar » Tue Mar 19, 2013 9:32 pm

While I'm not going into whether railgun anime is more interesting than index anime (because Uiharu and Saten will inevitably make me biased in that regard), LN has a far smaller market than anime in ISML, and index series split the limelight between so many girls that Misaka hardly gets any. Railgun IS the deciding factor in her rise in popularity.
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Re: RESULTS: 2013 Prelims III-1

Post by Desufire » Tue Mar 19, 2013 9:33 pm

Momokutenshi wrote:^*gives out cookies for Homuvotes* wait I can't do that, not even to save the soulgem of ISML

But if Homura and Kurisu don't make it in I'll be sad. And when I'm sad I don't bake cookies for a long, long, long time... </3 Just look at what happened after N-II groupings killed any hope of advancement for most of my favorites :'( What are you saying? Of course the delay doesn't have to do with laziness! xP

lol I just realized that my top 3 Nova 2012 probably won't be in Regular Season this year sadface
This is my feelings in a nutshell.

If Homura and Kurisu don't advance I will be super duper sadface
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Re: RESULTS: 2013 Prelims III-1

Post by xcrossfacekillahx » Wed Mar 20, 2013 1:23 am

Momokutenshi wrote:^*gives out cookies for Homuvotes* wait I can't do that, not even to save the soulgem of ISML

But if Homura and Kurisu don't make it in I'll be sad. And when I'm sad I don't bake cookies for a long, long, long time... </3 Just look at what happened after N-II groupings killed any hope of advancement for most of my favorites :'( What are you saying? Of course the delay doesn't have to do with laziness! xP

lol I just realized that my top 3 Nova 2012 probably won't be in Regular Season this year sadface
Just bake cookies even if Homu loses. Kurisu has a better chance at going in.
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Re: RESULTS: 2013 Prelims III-1

Post by Kordosa » Wed Mar 20, 2013 1:28 am

The problem with trying to identify anti-voting as opposed to regular voting is that there's no way to tell (other than the voter declaring as much) if someone simply likes one character over her opponent. Logically, one would conclude that if a single voter voted for every other opponent against that one character that it would be anti-voting, but even then there are other factors such as seiyuu, character type, animation studio/staff, familiarity with character/series, etc., that would obfuscate any sort of conclusion.

Speaking personally concerning Madoka Magica, I started off liking Mami and disliking Homura (due to her anticipated popularity). Madoka and the rest, I was neutral toward. Now, I like Kyouko and Madoka and am neutral to the rest. So right now, I wouldn't mind voting for Homura, but if there's another character I like, there's a chance I'll vote the other way. That doesn't instantly make me an anti-voter as I am currently; it just means my preferences are different.

I would say that hype aversion is probably a major part of anti-voting. In my opinion, the only real remedy is for each person to decide on their own to give the series a chance. And if they find out that the hype was justified, they will probably change their opinion on it. This is what happened to me in ISML 2009 with Clannad. I hadn't watched the series before, but only knew the series was popular so I anti-voted every Clannad character during the regular season (mainly since I was heavily pro-Kanon). Then sometime during the postseason, I actually watched it. Now Kotomi is my number one favorite female anime character.

As for Mikoto, I didn't know who she was until I watched Index (which I hadn't even heard of before at that point) after ISML 2009's postseason was over, and I instantly liked her. And then Railgun came out and she got popular overnight. And while I, myself, highly enjoyed Railgun, I was a little annoyed at her sudden popularity boost, not so much at her or the series, but at the other fans. But I got over that and it's now business as usual.
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Cirno wrote:*sinister laugh* Winning by only 47 votes is all part of my master plan. Now everyone will think I'm weak when, in fact, I'm the strongest. And then, when they least expect it, I'll strike back and take over the entire ISML. It's foolproof. Hahahaha, I'm such a genius!
Crisu wrote:And, of course, never merge an anti-cookie with a normal cookie. Serious consequence will occur.
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Metaler wrote:Seriously, if you're gonna do something badly, then don't bother doing it. It's like when you take a dump: you don't show it to other people specifically because it's shit!
Kordosa wrote:Protip: If a male high school student character is voiced by a female seiyuu, there is a 100% probability that that character will be forced to crossdress at some point.
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