Pre-lim Phase I predictions

[advance94]

Just wanted to know what all your predictions were. My predictions might not be the best but I tried my best to predict who will move on

Who I think will get the first 14 slots of the pre-lim stage

SpoilerShow

Group 1: Mio Akiyama (Kotomi may put up a bit of a challenge but to Mio this shouldn't be too hard)
Group 2: Hitagi Senjogahara (It will be a hard fight with Nagi Sanzenin but I think Hitagi will edge Nagi out)
Group 3: Mafuyu Shiina (Maria is the biggest challenge I think but not that hard)
Group 4: Kurimu Sakurano (Tsukasa has a chance to take this but smaller than Kurimu's)
Group 5: Nagisa Furukawa vs Saber (Couldn't decide)
Group 6: Holo (this group is hers alone, I'm most confident about this one)
Group 7: Nadeko Sengoku (Suo may be challenge but I think Nadeko is up to it)
Group 8: Sawako Kuronuma (Koromo also has the chance for this slot, really not confident about this choice)
Group 9: Nanoha Takamachi (Konata, C.C. and even Yuki Mikan all put up challenges here but I think the Magical Girl will edge them all out)
Group 10: Sakura Kinomoto (Minastu will put up a good fight and I also think Isumi has a very small chance for this but the oldest anime in this contest will come up on top at least I think its the oldest)
Group 11: Rika Furude vs Suiseiseki (this one is a really hard one, I would pick Suiseiseki but she collapsed at the double elimination last year)
Group 12: Hanyu Furude (Yuki, Chizuru and Amu will put up some challenge but I think Hanyu's cuteness is off the scale)
Group 13: Shinku (Ruiko has a shot too but the doll seems to be stronger)
Group 14: Misaka Mikoto (This group looks fairly easy, some challenges here and there but they are not that hard)

[Team Rocket Elite]

My predictions

Top 14Show

Group 1: Akiyama Mio (K-ON)
She's expected to be the strongest newcomer. She has definite Top 16 potential.
Group 2: Sanzen'in Nagi (HnG)
Althought it was too late to make the Top 16, Nagi became very powerful at the tailend of last year
Group 3: Maria (HnG)
Althought it was too late to make the Top 16, Maria became very powerful at the tailend of last year
Group 4: Hiiragi Tsukasa (LS)
Lucky Star hasn't faded enough for this to be competitive yet.
Group 5: Furukawa Nagisa (CL)
I still think she'll have a ton of power. Group 5 is a bit stacked with powerful characters.
Group 6: Holo (OtK)
Top 16 finisher.
Group 7: Ibuki Fūko (CL)
She doesn't have much competition. Fuuko was also very power at the tailend of last year
Group 8: Sunohara Mei (CL)
She's one of the weaker Clannad characters but can deal with the non-top tier newcomers.
Group 9: Takamachi Nanoha (MSLN)
Top 16 finisher.
Group 10: Kinomoto Sakura (CCS)
I'm not pointing any fingers, but Sakura got a pretty weak group of opponents. Sakura is probably one of the Top 34 so it's fine that she advances.
Group 11: Furude Rika (HNKN)
With ease unless Rozen Maiden recovers from their fall last year
Group 12: Furude Hanyū (HNKN)
Her nearest competition should be fading faster than Hanyuu is.
Group 13: Shinku (RM)
I think she'll recover a bit from last year.
Group 14: Misaka Mikoto (TAMI)
It won't be easy and she'll need to be even stronger than she was during Relegation.

[Cassiopeia]

Mine is pretty long. This is going to be interesting. Group 4,5,7,11,12 look very intense.

SpoilerShow

Group 1: Akiyama Mio
- Kotomi and Mai will be joint threats to Mio, but Key voters including me will be divided between the two, I think Mio will take this group eventually.

Group 2: Senjōgahara Hitagi
- There are several challengers for Hitagi in this group. Louise, Ryo and Nagi will not go down easily, but I think Hitagi will top this group.

Group 3: Shiina Mafuyu
- This group does not have anyone that will clearly outperform others in my opinion, but considering Mafuyu’s popularity in nomination phase, I think she has a good chance of winning this group.

Group 4: Hiiragi Tsukasa / Sakurano Kurimu
- Again, I don’t see any clear winner here, but either Tsukasa or Kurimu will top the group in my opinion. I like both of them, so it will be hard for me to decide.. Too bad Akari doesn’t have any chance in this group.

Group 5: Suigintou / Furukawa Nagisa
- This group is another tough one. I think Suigintou and Nagisa will be main contenders, but you cannot rule out Saber and Ritsu though. Well I hope either Suigintou or Nagisa wins.

Group 6: Holo
- Well.. I think Holo will win based on her previous performance and don’t forget the fact that she even won Korean moe tournament before. However, I see Tsuruya and Ikaros as potential threats. I hope Holo will do better this year..

Group 7: Hirasawa Ui / Fuko
- I think either Ui or Fuko will top this group, but you can’t rule out Nadeco though.

Group 8: Sunohara Mei
- Well.. this group gives me another dilemma, I would love to see Sawako winning this group, but I think Mei could prove to be too strong for her. I think Koromo will do well as well, but in the end, I expect Mei to go through.

Group 9: Takamachi Nanoha
- This group is another tough one. I think Nanoha has the best chance to go through, but Konata, C.C. and Mayoi are also very strong. I think Nanoha will top the group eventually, but I would not be surprised if any of the girls I mentioned beat Nanoha.

Group 10: Shiina Minatsu
- I assume this group will be won by Minatsu, but I am not sure how popular seitokai will be against series like Saki, Hayate, etc. I think Setokai girls will do well, but I won’t be surprised if Isumi top this group.

Group 11: Suiseiseki / Furude Rika
- Too bad for other girls, but this group is for either Suiseiseki or Rika. I think Rika is favourite for this encounter considering the fact that most people on the forum picked Rika over Suiseiseki for fantasy prediction, but Suiseiseki is strong enough to top this group as well.

Group 12: Akaba Chizuru / Kataoka Yuki?
- This group is also full of contenders in my opinion. Chizuru, Ami, Yuki, Alice, Koroko, Makoto, Hanyu … I don’t think I can predict this one at all. My heart says either Chizuru or Yuki, but you never know..

Group 13: Saten Ruiko
- Ruiko is surrounded by several veterans such as Nayuki, Shinku and Mion, but she seems to be getting enough support to top this group. However, those girls are also capable of winning this group, so it won’t be easy for Ruiko.

Group 14: Misaka Mikoto
- Well, railgun has an easy group. I don’t think any of other girls are capable of defeating the railgun princess.

[imbehindyou]

SpoilerShow

Group 1: Akiyama Mio
Group 2: Senjougahara Hitagi
Group 3: Shiina Mafuyu
Group 4: Sakurano Kurimu
Group 5: Suigintou
Group 6: Holo
Group 7: Sengoku Nadeko
Group 8: Beatrice
Group 9: Takamachi Nanoha
Group 10: Shiina Minatsu
Group 11: Furude Rika
Group 12: Akaba Chizuru
Group 13: Saten Ruiko
Group 14: Misaka Mikoto

Well, totally different from what my vote will look like..

[ithekro]

So if I understand correctly, Phase 1 is four matches, each with 3 matches per group round robin style so they will have all faced one another after four matches (each girls faces two others per match, and then rotates between the remaining six girls (nine girls per group).

What I don't know is how one decides who moves on. The save assumption is that whoever losses all four matches is gone and whoever wins all four continues on (or gets in...not sure). but then there are a lot of possibilities for three way round robins in groups of nine.

Is there suppose to be one "winner" or a group of three or four winners in each group to move on? Or will everyone face everyone in this coming month quickly to deturmine the top 34 that continue on to face the real challenge?

[Chocola]

There are 14 groups, so there will be 14 winners in Phase I. Those 14 joins the current 16. Everyone else moves to Phase II.

[advance94]

WOW I completely forgot Suigintou was in group 5

[Destiny]

SpoilerShow

Group 1: Akiyama Mio (barring any surprises, this should be an easy win)
Group 2: Senjōgahara Hitagi (the K-on! mob might push Mugi forward and Nagi's still quite popular, but I don't think they can win)
Group 3: Shiina Mafuyu (I don't know all of the others in this group and Maria put in a good show last year, but considering the results from nominations Mafuyu has very good chances)
Group 4: Hiiragi Tsukasa (either her or Kurimu, they are kind of similar but Lucky Star is far more popular)
Group 5: Sugintou (as much as I dislike her, I think she has the advantage here; Ritsu, Nagisa and Saber might all put in a good fight)
Group 6: Horo (and I'll be most pissed if it doesn't happen)
Group 7: Sengoku Nadeko (either her or Fuuko, with the same caveat about Ui)
Group 8: Beatrice (but I'm really not sure about this group, Mei is a strong contender and I know next to nothing about Sawako and her series' popularity)
Group 9: Takamachi Nanoha (Konata and even Maria might put on a fight, but I don't think it'll be enough to stop Nanoha)
Group 10: Kinomoto Sakura (I'm not sure if having Sakura and Kobato in the same group will work to their advantage or not; Minatsu's the strongest opponent but I don't think she'll be able to top the group)
Group 11: Suiseiseki (I'm one of the few people who picked her for Fantasy and I'll stick by it, but between her and Rika it can go either way)
Group 12: Furude Hanyū (this group is too full of question marks from new series - Chizuru, Yuuki or even Kuroko might all upset the result)
Group 13: Saten Ruiko (I'm crossing my fingers that since Railgun is still airing Ruiko will be able to defeat Shinku)
Group 14: Misaka Mikoto (I don't see any very obvious threats, but still Biribiri will have to do better than last year)

I only read the point system for Preliminaries I after filling in my predictions and didn't consider which character will be facing who, so this is really just wild guesses.
My votes will be completely different, I'm afraid. I'm even tempted to vote for Rei against Misaka in group 14.

[akumaxx]

I shall also take a look, using 2ch Saimoe data as reference:

SpoilerShow

1: Akiyama Mio
Who's gonna stop it? Her failure in Saimoe 2009 was considered as other's trap.
2: Senjōgahara Hitagi VS Sanzen'in Nagi
Well Hitagi sounds strong, althouth I didn't watch it. But Nagi was 2nd in 2007 and best 16 in 2009... it won't be easy.
3: Shiina Mafuyu
Maria may be a threat with 3 years' rage in Saimoe, but here she's a bit weaker.
4: Sakurano Kurimu
This pink will have to climb over Tsukasa, which got 2nd in Saimoe 2008 and caught a clean sweep in 2009.
5: Furukawa Nagisa VS Saber
Nagisa has her clan and Saber has the movie(recent days). Collision. Watch out for Suigintou.
6: Holo?
Twice down at Saimoe Round 2, still be careful. Ikaros is unknown but potential.
7: --confused--
Not easy to find a distinguished, either a little weak or unknown.
8: Amae Koromo
This not-a-kid was best 8 in Saimoe 2009, check Nymph(for potent) and Yomi(Mio's mirror) with caution.
9: Takamachi Nanoha
Also boosted from movie, Konata is weak now.
10: --confused--
Minatsu has assistant, Sakura is "the first", Kobato also "heals", and Kana had slain Holo and Tsukasa(Saimoe 2009, Round 2)... It rampages.
11: Suiseiseki VS Furude Rika
Two champions collide and Haruka(my favourite and many's) looks smaller between them.
12: --confused--
Chizuru incoming, Yūki was best 8 in Saimoe 2009, Kuroko is on air, Hanyū smells like Rika, and there is Amu.
13: Miyanaga Saki
She can challenge the old Shinku, while Saki the team(7 of best 34 and 2 of best 4) went further than Rozen Maiden.
14: Misaka Mikoto
Looking at Saimoe and Momoko was further. Beware of hidden monsters.

[Kaito_Dash]

Here is my prediction. The ones in Red are my picks.

My PredictionShow

Group 1: I cannot see anyone cope with Mio, but maybe Kotomi or Mai if there is.
Group 2: Group of Death, The two allies of Kugimiya knights might have something up against Hitagi.
Group 3: It is Presidents' fight, but I have faith in Mafuyu at last.
Group 4: Lil'Prez, Tsukasa, and Rena are on par.
Group 5: Another Group of Death, Suigintou, Nagisa, and Saber can force each other out at any moment.
Group 6: Can be none other than Horo or Minorin.
Group 7: Clash of the Titans, Nadeko vs Ui.
Group 8: It might be Sawako's year. Only Mei and the Koromo can deal with her.
Group 9: Clash of the veterans, Nanoha, Konata, and C.C.. It will be a shame to see any of them down to Phase II.
Group 10: Minatsu, Sakura, and Eva are on in this group, but they will not stand much of chance in Regular Season anyway.
Group 11: Suiseiseki has a great chance here, but do not underestimate the nun and the cat.
Group 12: This group's prediction is quite difficult. They all seems not stronger that each other. I pick Chizuru in the end.
Group 13: Shinku, Saki, Saten-san, and Tessa have a chance here, but they cannot forget Yuuko.
Group 14: Only Stealth Momo can do something with Mikoto, but I believe they will both make it to regular Season.

[ithekro]

I see someone remembered Rena.

I think the hardest part of this right now is that we can't know who of the older factions will be active this time around verses the newcomers that we have some fairly current data. That and the fickleness of the voters. How many have tossed aside the old for the new, and how many have clung to the past and reject the new? And all those in between.

Also how many voters will not understand, vote once, loses and not vote again? That seems like what happened to the Rozen Maidens last year at the end. Massive first round double elimination...only Suigintou won her match while Shinku and Suiseiseki didn't...next match all three lost with what looked like a whimper as what seemed like 600 or more voters didn't vote, followed by Suigintou's last matches where she once 2000 and better numbers abandoned her.

[amdrag]

My picksShow

Group 1: Kotomi Ichinose might challenge... for second place. Mio Akiyama will run away with this thing.

Group 2: With Hitagi, Winry, Asuka, Tsumugi and SZ-Nagi, this is a sure Group Of Death candidate. I think Hitagi Senjougahara makes it out of this group and shows what Bakemonogatari can do.

Group 3: Everyone's going with Mafuyu, and with good reason. I'm going to take Maria in an upset, but I can't give you a good reason why.

Group 4: Lucky*Star isn't the power it was last year at this time, but it should be enough to easily propel Tsukasa Hiiragi into the main tourney.

Group 5: Another Group Of Death candidate. With six ISML veterans and three strong newcomers, this will be a big feather in the cap of whoever wins this group. I'd take Ritsu over any other Rozen Maiden doll, but Suigintou finished fifth in the regular season for a reason. She'll get the nod.

Group 6: Holo's the smart pick. Ikaros is the smart upset pick. I'm not that smart. With no other dog in the fight, I think a fully-focused Brigade will carry Tsuruya to victory.

Group 7: Ui and Hayate should push her, but I think Bakemonogatari's run continues with Nadeko Sendoku getting the win.

Group 8: This could end up being a referendum on the strength of Saki. If they've got it, Koromo takes this group. If not, Mei. I think they've got it, so I'm looking for Koromo Amae to take this one.

Group 9: I still don't think she makes the playoffs, but Nanoha Takamachi should take care of business here. Sorry, Konata.

Group 10: Kana Ikeda's my darkhorse, but Sakrua Kinomoto's got the 'brand name' in the group. That should be enough to carry the day.

Group 11: The dolls will show up. Suiseiseki will, and should, advance.

Group 12: My gut keeps saying Ami Kawashima, so I'm going with it. Yuuki or Hanyuu are smarter choices, though.

Group 13: Between Saki and Shinku, one will get in this round and one will get in the next. I think Saki's gonna have to do a little bit more work, as I have Shinku making it through.

Group 14: I'm pulling for Rei, but I don't think even she can stand up to the Railgun. Mikoto Misaka should survive.

[Last Sinner]

My choicesShow

Group 1 - Mio
Group 2 - Winry
Group 3 - Shion
Group 4 - Rena
Group 5 - Saber
Group 6 - Horo
Group 7 - Hayate
Group 8 - Sawako
Group 9 - C.C.
Group 10 - Sakura
Group 11 - Rika
Group 12 - Alice
Group 13 - Kana
Group 14 - Chiaki

[bluemage]

After much thought...

Bolded My PicksShow

Group 1: Mio should dominate here after what happened to her in Saimoe. Kotomi won't be that easy to fight off though.
Group 2: Group of death indeed with so many key characters from popular series, but Hitagi should have enough power to overcome it.
Group 3: After placing third overall in nominations, Mafuyu has a good chance here. Definitely watch out for Maria and occasional upsetter Sayuri though.
Group 4: Lucky Star's a few years old now, but Tsukasa should still take this one with relative ease due to fanbase. Don't count Kurimu out though with her boost right now.
Group 5: It comes down to three, maybe four potential winners depending on the situation, but I'll pick Saber since the Type-Moon fanbase is quite large and has been around longer.
Group 6: I may be a bit biased with this group but Holo should be able to pull it off.
Group 7: Fuuko's certainly a tough contender, but I have faith in Nadeko.
Group 8: The safest pick is probably Koromo. Sawako's from a shoujo series and may not accumulate as many male fans as some of the other franchises, but a lot of dark horses in this group for sure.
Group 9: Solely based on the final standings after the regular season of ISML 2009, but Nanoha will probably take it.
Group 10: Sakura certainly has a lot of staying power for a character that is almost a decade old, so I'll go with her.
Group 11: I SURE HOPE THE WINNER ENDS UP BEING RIKA IN THIS GROUP, but Desu~ will give her a run for her money for sure.
Group 12: Really tough to decide, but I'm leaning towards Hanyuu here. Kuroko, Yuuki, and possibly Amu will all be threats.
Group 13: Ruiko is a good choice, but you can never underestimate the power of Saki.
Group 14: Railgun princess Mikoto should be able to blast everyone else away in this group.

And most of them will probably be wrong.

[waterfall]

Mai could not have gotten a worse group

Seriously, in any other group I'd say she has a shot, but Mio + Kotomi is just brutal

[advance94]

Mai could not have gotten a worse group

Seriously, in any other group I'd say she has a shot, but Mio + Kotomi is just brutal

I think group 9 is more brutal Nanoha + Konata + C.C. and you could also throw in Yuki Mikan

[maglor]

A challange to all : Please rank the groups by the total strength of all within the group

[hinakatbklyn]

I think group 9 is more brutal Nanoha + Konata + C.C. and you could also throw in Yuki Mikan

These 4 alone would make a tough group. Add in Mayoi, you end up with a full house. Any one of these 5 could win this group.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Let's see if I can figure out the group strength:

Group strength (I determine If group has perhaps a blowout on its hands)

in order: Groups 8 / 12 / 6 / 2 / 7 / 9 / 10 / 11 / 4 / 13 / 5 / 3 / 13 / 1

I put Mio and Mikoto's group at the bottom on the chance that one or both of them could run and hide from the rest of the group. (Hope that's correct?)

[Team Rocket Elite]

A challange to all : Please rank the groups by the total strength of all within the group

Winning criterion : Which group would have the lowest standard deviation of the percentage of the votes received by each candidates?

Strongest 2, 5, 9, 1, 6, 14, 11, 3, 12, 10, 4, 13, 7, 8 Weakest

I don't see how that criterion works for determning the winner, though.

[Kiopi]

I'd assume that the criterion is not about determining the winner but is more about identifying groups where the playing field is almost leveled (i.e. equal winning opportunity for most if not all). So that would make the strongest group being one where the winner could be almost anybody while the weakest would be those that have a clear winner.