Clinching Scenarios

Nominations and other events occurring before the Main Tournament
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Clinching Scenarios

Post by amdrag » Tue Feb 09, 2010 6:41 am

GROUP 1
Key match: Mio Akiyama vs. Kotomi Ichinose vs. Kazari Uiharu
---Kazari's performance, even if she wins, has no bearing on the group winner. If Kotomi beats Mio, Kotomi takes the group. If Mio beats or ties Kotomi, Mio takes the group.

GROUP 2
Key match: Sanzen'in Nagi vs. Hitari Senjougahara vs. Tsumugi Kotobuki
---Tsumugi's performance, even if she wins, has no bearing on the group winner. If Hitari beats SZN, Hitari takes the group. If SZN beats or ties Hitari, SZN takes the group.

GROUP 3
Key match: Shiina Mafuyu vs. Shizuku Sangou vs. Maria
---With all three girls tied at 12 points, it's winner take all. If there's any ties, Shiina owns tiebreakers over both Maria and Shizuku, while Maria owns the tiebreaker over Shizuku.

GROUP 4
Key match: Tsukasa Hiiragi vs. Kurimu Sakuramo vs. Alice
---This match is another winner-take-all battle. If Kurimu and Tsukasa tie for the win, Tsukasa would advance via tiebreaker.

GROUP 5
Key match: Nagisa Furukawa vs. Saber vs. Suigintou
---Suigintou's performance, even if she wins, has no bearing on the group; whomever wins between Nagisa and Saber wins the group. Saber would advance if she tied with Nagisa.

GROUP 6
Key match: Holo vs. Konjiki no Yami vs. Ikaros
Key match: Minori Kushieda vs. Kotome Kirishima vs. Souseiseki
---Holo advances with an outright win OR a tie for the win OR an outright 2nd place and a Minori outright win
---Konjiki no Yami advances with an outright win or a first-place tie with Ikaros AND anything less than an outright win by Minori
---Ikaros advances with an outright win AND anything less than an outright win by Minori
---Minori advances with an outright win AND anything less than an outright 2nd place by Holo

GROUP 7
Key match: Ui Hirasawa vs. Fuuko Ibuki vs. Nadeko Sengoku
---If there's a tie for first, Fuuko owns tiebreakers over both Nadeko and Ui, while Nadeko owns a tiebreaker over Ui. Otherwise, it's another winner-take-all match.

GROUP 8
Key match: Mei Sunohara vs. Yomi Isayama vs. Koromo Amae
Key match: Ayumu Nishizawa vs. Kirino Chiba vs. Mizore Shirayuki
---If Mei wins or takes 2nd outright, Mei advances.
---If Mei ties for 2nd and Ayumu wins outright, Ayumu advances.
---If Mei takes 3rd and Ayumu and either wins outright or finishes in a two-way tie for the win, Ayumu advances.
---If Mei takes 3rd and Ayumu finishes in either a three-way tie for first, a tie for 2nd or outright 3rd, the Yomi/Koromo winner would advance.

GROUP 9
Key match: Konata Izumi vs. C.C. vs. Nanoha Takamachi
---This one is win-and-you're-in for all three girls. If there's a tie for the win, Konata holds tiebreakers over C.C. and Nanoha, while C.C. holds a tiebreaker over Nanoha as well.
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Re: Clinching Scenarios

Post by sirwence » Tue Feb 09, 2010 6:52 am

I will be watching Group 5 - 9 - 2 and 3 very closely (especially 5)
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Re: Clinching Scenarios

Post by Voltorn » Tue Feb 09, 2010 6:54 am

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Re: Clinching Scenarios

Post by Team Rocket Elite » Tue Feb 09, 2010 9:19 am

My predictions for who will win each group:

Akiyama Mio
She has been flat out the most impressive character in the preliminaries.

Sanzen'in Nagi
Despite the hype, Senjōgahara Hitagi doesn't have what it takes to fight with Nagi. Hitagi is stronger than I thought she would be but Nagi is on another level.

Shiina Mafuyu
Seitokai characters have been very impressive and constantly beat my expectations. At the start of the contest, I thought Maria would with with ease if she was as strong as last year. Maria didn't fall in strength but it turns out Mafuyu is strong enough to win anyways.

Sakurano Kurimu
Similar to Mafuyu. Tsukasa is very strong but Kurimu has risen to the challenge of beating her. This match will probably be close, though.

Saber
For some time last year, Saber became very powerful. She fell a bit later on but it looks like she has regained her former strength. Nagisa is very stronger but Saber looks to be stronger.

Holo
Yami isn't as strong as she used to be. Holo outright wins the match without much trouble.

Sengoku Nadeko
This match kinda sucks. Fuuko is the strongest of the three. However, she got stuck with split votes in the most important match of the group. It will probably be enough for Nadeko to take a win in a not particularly fair fight. With some luck, Fuuko will be strong enough to get past Nadeko even with Ui holding Fuuko down.

Sunohara Mei
I picked her as my captain in ISML fantasy for a reason. Mei will win her group even easier than Holo will. Mei had the absolute easiest group to take first place in.

Izumi Konata
This choice will probably shock some people. Most people probably think Nanoha wins this match. Nanoha has been underperforming for a while now in the preliminaries. I actually thought C.C. would be the favorite going into the match. However, Konata did have some surprisingly good matches. Looking back, they were just a bit better than C.C and a lot better than Nanoha. Nanoha does have problems getting high percentages so I wouldn't count her out of the match but I think Konata will win the match. All three of these characters will be making their way into the Round Robin at some point so this match doesn't really matter that much.
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Re: Clinching Scenarios

Post by Eisdrache » Tue Feb 09, 2010 11:13 am

I surely hope that your Nagi > Hitagi prediction becomes true :D
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Re: Clinching Scenarios

Post by Demi. » Tue Feb 09, 2010 12:36 pm

ROUP 1
- Mio Akiyama
It's saddening but nothing will stop Mio from advancing, not even Kotomi with concentrated anti-votes against Mio.

GROUP 2
- Sanzenin Nagi
I don't care who wins, but my fantasy score rests in Hitagi's hands...And the clear advantage goes to Nagi.


GROUP 3
Maria
For some reason, HnG characters are really powerful. Even Maria.

GROUP 4
- Tsukasa Hiiragi
It will be close, but this is Tsukasa's to lose.

GROUP 5
- Saber
Saber appears to be near-Mio strength. For whatever reason, her strength rivals Nagisa.

GROUP 6
- Holo
Holo will win, but the margin won't be too large.


GROUP 7
- Nadeko Sengoku
Split votes give Nadeko the win.

GROUP 8
- Mei Sunohara
What a weak group...

GROUP 9
- Nanoha Takamachi
Nanoha may seem the weakest, but the same kind of fanbase is boosting both Konata and C.C., while Nanoha is from her own dedicated fanbase. And for all that is holy, Nanoha shouldn't have to lose to either one.
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Re: Clinching Scenarios

Post by Kiopi » Tue Feb 09, 2010 2:53 pm

Let's not go into my choice of Group 2 since it's more of a personal delusionment than actually trying to dissect into the voters' minds on who will win.
  1. Akiyama Mio
    2 out of 3 rounds she had huge vote differential over her opponents. And judging by voting sentiments, she's pretty much a heavy favorite to win this match.

  2. Senjōgahara Hitagi
    Yeah, I know that performance-wise Nagi has the overwhelming advantage but I'm hoping that the Bakemonogatari series, Hitagi's personality and brand of tsudere will triumph over Nagi's. Plus, putting Nagi's name as winner will send me into despair. :P

  3. Shiina Mafuyu
    Actually this is one match that I feel could go either way between Mafuyu and Maria judging by the almost similar number of votes gained each round. However, I'm going to put my money on Mafuyu as she has slightly more advantage in vote total as well as the overall support for the anime series.

  4. Sakurano Kurimu
    Also another match that could go either way between Kurimu and Tsukasa. I'm banking on the series to pull her through.

  5. Saber
    Saber and Nagisa had almost the same number of votes in 2 out of 3 matches and the remaining match had Saber on the advantage due to Chii and Ritsu stealing away Nagisa's votes. I'd say it's a 50/50 chance either would win with a slight advantage to Saber purely on votes total. And there's also the Suigintou factor where we don't know whose votes will she draw away.

  6. Holo
    First place, second place or a tie does not matter since she's guaranteed of being group champion either by points or tiebreaker. Unofficially I'm still rooting for Ikaros though even if she gets packed into Phase 2 of the Preliminaries. ;P
  7. Sengoku Nadeko
    A bit on the fence between Nadeko and Fūko but I'm hoping the Bakemonogatari title will draw in enough votes away from Ui to beat Fūko.

  8. Sunohara Mei
    No matter how you look at it, Mei's got overwhelming advantage in the vote count department.

  9. Takamachi Nanoha
    Nanoha's votes so far has been far from impressive but her opponents were the very same opponents that Nanoha defeated in last year's regular season. I'm hoping for the possibility that the Nanoha fanbase were voting for C.C. and Konata in the past two rounds only because there were no one better to vote for.
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Re: Clinching Scenarios

Post by niwa87 » Tue Feb 09, 2010 3:10 pm

Personally, i do think Hitagi will win in group 2.
For me she is much more popular compare to Nagi. Eventhough Nagi performance seem to be be better, but i think Hitagi have better chance since she is new and much more fresh in people mind compare to Nagi.
Still, i hope my prediction will be wrong...
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Re: Clinching Scenarios

Post by Cassiopeia » Tue Feb 09, 2010 3:19 pm

My predictions:

Group 1: Akiyama Mio - Very Likely vs. Ichinose Kotomi - The upset of the preliminary phase 1

Despite her disappointing performance at Saimoe, Mio has been considered one of top new comers who will be expecting to challenge for post season entry at ISML. She has shown her strength by outperforming other girls in nominations and preliminary matches. Kotomi is no push-over, but if she pulls this off, it will be the upset of the preliminary phase 1. Just keep in mind that you can never rule out the possibility. Who knew Hinagiku would defeat Shana twice during the post-season in ISML 2009?

Group 2: Sanzen'in Nagi - The favourite vs. Hitagi Senjougahara - Don't underestimate her

Yes, Nagi is one of a seasoned veteran girls who has an established fan base and is voiced by one of the most famous voice actresses. She has been doing very well in the preliminary so far, and is considered to be the favourite to top her group. But you also have to consider the strength of bakemonogatari, although the series is not as popular in ISML as in Japan. It is a one of the most successful animes in 2009 (and of course its dvds and light novels are also big hit in Japan..) and Hitagi showed her strength so far. If someone can challenge Nagi, it must be Hitagi. This could be a close match, although Nagi is the favourite for me. Tsumugi has no chance of defeating them, but she will be a deciding factor of the winner. It will be interesting to see which character suffers more by votes taken by Tsumugi.

Group 3: Shiina Mafuyu - A test that she is not allowed to fail vs. Maria - Needs to be at her best

I predict this will be another close encounter. My prediction is Mafuyu will edge Maria, but Maria is also capable winning this match as well. This match will be the first match that Mafuyu should win, if she wants to establish herself as a post-season candidate. She is one of the top performers from the new series and has a huge potential. I am hoping for Mafuyu's win here, since I want to see more new challengers doing well in the regular season. Shizuku has been also impressive, but her 3 wins were not dominant, and she is not in the same level as Maria and Mafuyu. The number of votes taken by Shizuku from the other two may decide the winner though.

Group 4: Tsukasa Hiiragi The favourite vs. Kurimu Sakuramo - Needs to be at her best vs. Alice - another huge upset, if it happens

The popularity of lucky star has been above my expectation, but the performance of setokai girls are also very impressive. This will be another close encounter, but considering the huge fan base of lucky star and kyoani, Hiiragi could be the favourite, but I would not be surprised if Kurimu manages to defeat Tsukasa. Alice has not much chance of winning this one, but she appears to have better chance than other dark horse candidates.

Group 5: Nagisa Furukawa - Needs to be at her best vs. Saber - The favourite

Saber has been impressive so far in the preliminary. Her popularity exceeded my expectation, while Suigintou's poor performance shocked me at the same time. I initially predicted that this group will be won by either Suigintou or Nagisa, but Saber has a great momentum going into her final match, and she has more than enough support to win it. However, Nagisa's fan base is also strong enough to defeat her opponent. I don't expect Suigintou to win this match at all, but votes she receive could be a main deciding factor of the winner.

Group 6: Holo - No competition

I selected Holo as my captain for the fantasy league, because she is one of my favourites and has no competitions in her group. This has been the case so far. Ikaros, yami and Minori still have chances of upsetting Holo, but what are the chances of Holo finish third behind Yami and Ikaros in her final match? This group is already over.

Group 7: Ui Hirasawa - has a great chance vs. Fuuko Ibuki - The favourite vs. Nadeko Sengoku - Capable of another upset

This group is a very interesting one. Two new comers meet another ISML veteran and all of them have done well in the preliminary so far. Ui is a strong character from K-ON and she is capable of defeating the other two. Fuuko is the favourite on paper, but it will be interesting to see which girl Kyoani voters will vote for... Nadeko is another strong new comer from bakemonogatari and she can manage another upset, if kyoani votes get divided by Ui and Fuuko.

Group 8: Sunohara Mei - No competition

Mei is also another certain winner of the group. Like Holo, she just needs a 2nd place finish in her last match to advance to the regular season which she will be more than capable to accomplish.

Group 9: Konata Izumi vs. C.C. vs. Nanoha Takamachi (No favourites...)

This is another intense match. All of them are ISML veterans and will make to the regular season no matter the outcome of this match. For me, it is impossible to predict the winner here, since you never know what will happen when voting starts. They all have a chance to win this match, but I think Konata and Nanoha have better chances of winning this one than C.C. does. We will see what happens :)
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Re: Clinching Scenarios

Post by hinakatbklyn » Tue Feb 09, 2010 3:23 pm

Group (1) popularity vs. (2) vote totals who would win
1 - (1) Mio (2) Mio
2 - (1) Hitagi (2) Nagi
3 - (1) Mafuyu (2) Maria
4 - (1) Kurimu (2) Kurimu (Barely)
5 - (1) Saber/Nagisa (2) Nagisa (Barely)
6 - (1) Horo (2) Horo
7 - (1) Nadeko (2) Nadeko
8 - undecided (2) Mei
9 - (1) Nanoha (2) Izumi Konata/CC
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Re: Clinching Scenarios

Post by Toady » Tue Feb 09, 2010 4:50 pm

1. Mio will win and I want her to win.
2. It's harder than in Group 1, but I still believe and hope that Nagi will win.
3. I really don't know who will win between Maria and Mafuyu. Let's say Mafuyu for the prediction. She got better results against Shion and Sayuri. I'll vote for her, but I'd be happy if Maria win too.
4. I want to watch a good victory of Tsukasa. It will be close, but I think Kurimu will win though. Her results against Akari and weak Niche or Lisa are slightly better than Tsukasa's. I don't know who will profit of Alice's presence too.
5. Here I hope it's Nagisa. I think she'll win, because her match against Ayu and Ranka Lee went better than Saber's match against Ayu and Chii. Ayu got more votes against Saber than against Nagisa, though she was with the weak Ranka Lee.
6. Bah. Holo will win of course. There were almost all my favorites in this group, but Holo isn't one of them unluckily ^^ Tsuruya is out, so I still have a little hope that Minorin makes it.
7. I find this match interesting. Because, yes, votes will be split. I wonder if Nadeko can do it... But, yeah, that's my prediction. Anyway, I really hope Fuuko will win.
8. Mei is going to win. It's not bad, I really like her, but I'm sad for Ayumu. It was one of the easiest groups, and she'll have trouble to qualify now.
9. Konata here. I don't think the two others have that much of a chance...
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Re: Clinching Scenarios

Post by sirwence » Tue Feb 09, 2010 6:32 pm

Group 1 -Mio will win hands down - how close (or otherwise) I dont know but she wins
Group 2 -Nagi will pull this one out I think
Group 3 -It will be a tough one I think , but I am giving the edge to Maria - HnG has been doing well
Group 4 -I see Tsukasa winning a close victory here
Group 5 -I am horribly biased here - But I am seeing A Saber win (Likely a close one) and hoping for one very badly - Also while one may try and bring up Ayu and Chii, I will bring up Nagisa vs Chii and Ritsu much closer than most thought it would have been.
Group 6 -is auto Horo
Group 7 -I have no prediction lol
Group 8 -I am saying Mei will win - Though I can hope for Ayumu.
Group 9 -I am seeing a spilt between Konata and CC I think that gives Nanoha the edge she needs to win. So I go with Nanoha (although again a bit biased I am)
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Re: Clinching Scenarios

Post by MindSaber » Tue Feb 09, 2010 11:46 pm

Group 1: Mio, hands down....
Group 2: Rooting for Nagi 3000, even the odds is with the Crab. Hitagi is meh with me
Group 3: Mafuyu, Maria might be close but she needs more vote-drafting to win
Group 4: VOTE FOR THE PRESIDENT!!!!!
Group 5: Saber, Nagisa didn't have a boost since after-story
Group 6: Holo, A weak group indeed
Group 7: Nadeko, but hoping Fuko pull an upset
Group 8: Weak Group, hoping Koromoe advance
Group 9: Konata, hands down...
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Re: Clinching Scenarios

Post by ithekro » Thu Feb 11, 2010 6:28 am

Group 10: Unless something weird happens, the winner is Shiina Minatsu.
Group 11: Toss up between Rika and Suiseiseki...Utau can't win even if she beats them both...whoever gets second wins if Utau wins.
Group 12: Kawashima Ami wins. There is no way to beat her unless both Yuuki and Amu defeat her. Then it would go to the winner between Chizuru, Hanyuu, and Kuroko, But that is extremely unlikely. If Ami gets second she still wins since she's defeated all three of her rivals already.
Group 13:....Wow. I don't know. Toss up between Shinku, Mion, and Saten Ruiko. Could go anywhere.
Group 14: Toss up between Mikasa Makoto and Illyasviel von Einzbern. Ange has no say in the matter aside from moving votes around.
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Re: Clinching Scenarios

Post by amdrag » Thu Feb 11, 2010 7:07 am

GROUP 10
Key match: Minatsu Shiina vs. Kobato Hanato vs. Ai Haibara
Key match: Sakura Kinomoto vs. Isumi Saginomiya vs. Kana Ikeda
---Minastu clinches with an outright 1st place OR a tie for 1st place OR an outright 2nd place OR a (highly unlikely) Kana Ikeda win.
---If Sakura or Isumi win their match outright, they would clinch the group if Minatsu finishes either 3rd or tied for 2nd.
---If Sakura and Isumi tie for 1st place and Minatsu finishes 3rd, Isumi would advance on tiebreaker.

GROUP 11
Key match: Suiseiseki vs. Rika Furude vs. Utau Hoshina
---Utau's performance is irrelevant; whomever wins between Suiseiseki and Rika takes the group. Rika owns the tiebreaker over Suiseiseki, so she would advance if they tied.

GROUP 12
Key match: Ami Kawashima vs. Yuuki Kataoka vs. Amu Hinamori
Key match: Chizuru Akaba vs. Hanyuu Furude vs. Kuroko Shirai
---Ami can make this very simple; an outright 2nd place, a share of 1st place or an outright 1st place gives Ami the group.
---If Ami ties for 2nd, the outright Chizuru/Hanyuu/Kuroko winner takes the group. If there is no outright winner, Ami would still advance thanks to owning all three-way tiebreakers due to her head-to-head victories over all three girls.
---Chizuru owns tiebreakers over Hanyuu and Kuroko, while Hanyuu owns one over Kuroko. However, this will only come into play if there's a two-way tie for 1st place and Ami finishes in 3rd outright. If there's a three-way tie for first, Ami will advance regardless of her own performance.

GROUP 13
Key match: Shinku vs. Rukio Saten vs. Mion Sonozaki
---Another "win-and-in" group. If there are any ties, Shinku would advance over either girl, while Rukio would only advance over Mion.

GROUP 14
Key match: Illyasviel von Einzbern vs. Mikoto Misaka vs. Ange Ushiromiya
---This group comes down to Illy vs. Mikoto, and only Illy vs. Mikoto. Mikoto advances in the event of a tie; otherwise, it's winner-take-all between the two.
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Re: Clinching Scenarios

Post by Kiopi » Thu Feb 11, 2010 7:44 am

There isn't any nailbiters this time compared to the earlier list that covered the first 9 groups. Feels rather anti-climatic.
  • Group 10: Shiina Minatsu
    Obvious winner. Undefeated so far and the probability that she would lose to her other two opponents is highly unlikely.

  • Group 11: Furude Rika
    A toss-up between Furude Rika and Suiseiseki. But based on performances over the past three rounds, I'd say Rika has more vote support than Suiseiseki.

  • Group 12: Kawashima Ami
    Obvious winner. Undefeated so far and the probability that she would lose to her other two opponents is highly unlikely.

  • Group 13: Saten Ruiko
    It might be a close three-way match between Ruiko, Mion and Shinku. The edge goes to Ruiko due to the Railgun series and that people might be more sympathetic to her due to events that transpired in the series and her being a Level 0 in a city populated by espers.

  • Group 14: Misaka Mikoto
    Her popularity has increased by leaps and bounds ever since she was given her own series compared to last year. I'd say more voters are flocking to her as it'd be interesting to see what she is capable of this time around.
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Re: Clinching Scenarios

Post by Team Rocket Elite » Thu Feb 11, 2010 9:03 am

My Group 10+ Predictions:

Shiina Minatsu
She wins if she takes first place in her match. She'll do it with ease.

Furude Rika
She has looked a fair bit more impressive than Suiseseki. It'll be close, but Rika should win.

Kawashima Ami
She wins if she takes first place in her match. She'll do it with ease.

Shinku
This is a tough match. My stats have Shinku and Saten as pretty much dead equals. In a close match, I'll side with the fanbase that I know has no issues with less than honorable tactics. They will do whatever it takes to win.

Misaka Mikoto
Misaka has really shot up in power since last year. I never thought she would be able to compete with Illyasviel but here I am claiming that Misaka will beat Illya with ease. Railgun did wonders for Misaka.
A miracle that you believe in when you know it won't happen......... is hope.
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ithekro
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Strike witch
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Re: Clinching Scenarios

Post by ithekro » Thu Feb 11, 2010 9:27 am

Not having to fight for screentime (with the main character, Index, or her own numerious sisters) helps.
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