2018 Elimination stage general discussions

Single-Elimination Tournament and future ISML contests
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2018 Elimination stage general discussions

Post by Chibasa » Mon Dec 31, 2018 5:00 am

This thread is for discussing upcoming matches. There isn't strict limit on what can be posted as long as it is somewhat related to upcoming and potential matches in the future, except for very negative comments/posts about almost anything. Also please refrain from posting too much support materials for a character. A little bit of support post can be tolerated, but any post, that for some reason is deemed to be, or have become, too excessive may be deleted without warning.

Who will win the Tiara, Scepter, and Yearly seasonal crown? Who will get sniped? Who are the dark horses?

Power ChartShow
Favorites 1st Rem:
Power: 92 CVP: 51.174 DVP: 5.633 W/L: 34-1
Image
Last Year Status: Quarterfinalist, 2nd in Power Chart

Analysis: Rem survived this chaotic year with only one defeat (#NagatoBestSniper) and d-e-s-t-r-o-y-e-d everyone in Aquamarine Necklace almost claiming no one can compete with her right off the bat. But this year seen the emergence of a new rival... And an old one is still lurking around. So nothing done yet.

Opposition: Rem may have the easiest path towards semifinals, avoiding the big names.

2nd Yūki Asuna:
Power: 91.6 CVP: 51.722 DVP: 6.237 W/L: 31-4
Image
Last Year Status: Semifinalist, 1st in Power Chart

Analysis: Asuna have most regular results, always on top of (sai)moe. She got her Sapphire Necklace without any problem, impressive results in latest period and the only reason why she isn't 1st of this ranking is that she have been successfully defeated 4 times. But overall she is as strong as her two main rivals: Rem and Kanna.

Opposition: Facing a weakened Saber for starter, Asuna should have not that much problems reaching quarterfinals. They faced each other quite lot of time recently and have quite some similarities so we wait to see em on battlefield again.

3rd Kamui Kanna:
Power: 91.4 CVP: 52.717 DVP: 6.092 W/L: 33-2
Image
Last Year Status: Winter Winner Chicken Dinner

Analysis: Kanna have best CVP and did a strong run during all year, beating last year records, the only downside of her path to PostSeason is in Necklace Round, but she successfully secured Diamond one in the end. However she struggled to got it and Kurisu almost stole it... Which is why she isn't 1st of this ranking.

Opposition: Facing Sagiri, Kanna have no fear of Round of 16, however, her quarterfinal match should be extremely hard. On bright side, she'll avoid both Rem and Asuna before finale.

Rivals
4th Tohsaka Rin:
Power: 77.4 CVP: 44.634 DVP: 6.25 W/L: 31-4
Image
Last Year Status: Quarterfinalist, 10th in Power Chart

Analysis: Rin had a pretty decent year until ruby, then she unleashed her full power and grabbed herself a Ruby Necklace and outperformed everyone in Diamond Period. She seems more than ready for PostSeason !

Opposition: Rin however have some problems to consider with a strong opposition since start. Rikka will not be an easy match.

 
5th Nota Seniorious Chtholly:
Power: 75 CVP: 46.484 DVP: 5.186 W/L: 31-4
Image
Last Year Status: Spring Winner, Seasonal Overall Winner

Analysis: Chtolly delivered a strong performance, regular results, an easily earned Amethyst Necklace. But if she seemed able to win against everyone (beating Kanna last day with decent margin), she also seemed vulnerable with Ai and Kurisu not far from her and most importantly a defeat towards Shiro. Her opponents clearly identified her as a threat too big to be ignored.

Opposition: Chtolly is facing Illya, which is kinda known for her sniper abilities and having strong performances in PostSeason. Definitely not an easy start, but Chtolly isn't there to play for the chocolate medal anyway, she seems ready for a great performance and seems to be favorite for Tiara in lot of minds.
 
6th Yukinoshita Yukino:
Power: 72.6 CVP: 47.072 DVP: 5.57 W/L: 31-4
Image
Last Year Status: Eliminated in Round of 16, 7th in Power Chart

Analysis: Yukino missed necklaces this year, but this time she slowly climbed up rankings and showed quite impressive results those last periods. She's definitely a threat for everyone.

Opposition: Yukino faces an opponent coming back from a far away past: Kinomoto Sakura. But backed up by a fresh new season this year, she could show that she did not lost anything since her first AST title (the first Saimoe title of all time). But in all honesty, I believe Yukino will not repeat her mistake from last year and will advance in quarterfinals.
 
7th Shiina Mashiro:
Power: 69.6 CVP: 46.084 DVP: 5.38 W/L: 29-6
Image
Last Year Status: Semifinalist, 2nd in Power Chart

Analysis: Mashiro got herself her favorite necklace with ease at start of the year. But after this Topaz Necklace she slowly faded away and did not perform as good as usual those last periods. However the Sleeping Beauty may certainly wake up when it matters and should be feared by anyone on her path.

Opposition: After a good start, Tohru also faded away near the end, but even more, almost being eliminated in Ruby. Mashiron should have the upper hand here.
 
Underdogs
8th Nishimiya Shouko:
Power: 56.2 CVP: 46.144 DVP: 5.304 W/L: 29-6
Image
Last Year Status: Spring Finalist

Analysis: Shouko was never really impressive this year, she was regularly near top for VF, and built up a strong CVP but did not succeed in any necklaces and even had troubles in this Regular Season end. She'll probably need to step-up to make her fans believe in her chances.

Opposition: Shiro will be a good test, this is a pretty even match.
 
9th Takanashi Rikka:
Power: 47.2 CVP: 44.301 DVP: 5.021 W/L: 25-10
Image
Last Year Status: Eliminated in Round of 16, 15th in Power Chart

Analysis: After some troubles in Emerald Period, Rikka bounced back and delivered a solid performance, with a big performance in Diamond Necklace. She have a shot for quarterfinals, but it may be difficult to go further without a miracle.

Opposition: Tohsaka-san seems extremely powerful on this end of year. Kinda unlucky for Rikka, but she'll have to deal with it... And she can do it. It's time for her to grow up and show what she can do without Yuuta !

10th Makise Kurisu:
Power: 45.6 CVP: 42.166 DVP: 5.348 W/L: 25-10
Image
Last Year Status: Eliminated in Round of 16, 14th in Power Chart

Analysis: After a delicate Ruby Period, Kurisu almost got herself Diamond Necklace again. Almost.

Opposition: Facing Rem again in Round of 16, Kurisu isn't the favorite here, but maybe her trong performance during last necklace can bring a tiny hope for her fans.
 
11th Tohru:
Power: 44.4 CVP: 43.855 DVP: 5.283 W/L: 25-10
Image
Last Year Status: Winter Finalist

Analysis: Tohru made a good start but totally wasted her chances in the end. After a catastrophic Ruby Period she ends up not very well seeded and seems in a downfall.

Opposition: Mashiro always a big fish. Tohru will need to breathe a lot of fire there to survive !
 
12th Shiro:
Power: 43.4 CVP: 43.188 DVP: 5.345 W/L: 28-7
Image
Last Year Status: Eliminated in Round of 16, 9th in Power Chart

Analysis: Shiro showed bit weaker performance than last year and even had to go into Diamond WildCard to reach top 16, but she's a girl full of surprises and I feel like she can reach Quarterfinals this year.

Opposition: Shouko is actually an opponent Shiro may be able to take down. Quite an opportunity to shine.
 
13th Izumi Sagiri:
Power: 41.8 CVP: 40.995 DVP: 5.085 W/L: 26-9
Image
Last Year Status: 3rd in Spring Seasonal

Analysis: For someone who only been seasonal semifinalist last year, Sagiri found her way to the top 16 with a regular season, never really shining but rarely in danger before Diamond Period. Not bad.

Opposition: Kanna is definitely a strong opponent ! But being eaten by a dragon loli wouldn't be that bad right? I'm sure Sagiri fans have better plans however !
 
14th Illyasviel Von Eiznbern:
Power: 40.6 CVP: 42.607 DVP: 5.069 W/L: 27-8
Image
Last Year Status: Quarterfinalist, 12th in Power Chart

Analysis: Having a rough time in Diamond Period, Illya is a bit worrying, especially since she never performed in any necklace round. Her level from 2016 is yet to be recovered.

Opposition: Chtolly is pretty strong, but Illya took down Kurumi last year at this stage, so why not believe in a magical girl? Especially a loli !
 
15th Saber:
Power: 39.2 CVP: 41.838 DVP: 4.575 W/L: 26-9
Image
Last Year Status: Eliminated in Diamond (1-4)

Analysis: Starting to lose early this year, Saber never been really convincing. But Fate can strikes at every second, she can find back her power...

Opposition: ...And will need it, facing Asuna (again), Saber have a huge duel incoming and will probably need to use Excalibur from the start !
 
16th Kinomoto Sakura:
Power: 29.8 CVP: 42.49 DVP: 5.3 W/L: 21-14
Image
Last Year Status: Eliminated in Topaz (0-5)

Analysis: Sakura never even reached a necklace round this year.In a way reaching top 16 is already an achievement for Sakura. It will be hard from now on.

Opposition: Facing Yukino is hard, and it's probably most one-sided match of whole PostSeason.
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Re: 2018 Elimination stage general discussions

Post by Ennadai » Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:00 am

expected VF% (Elimination 1)Show
Name (W-L,CVP)FEV%STDV%
Kanna Kamui v. Izumi Sagiri52.27% - 47.73%
(33-2,52.717) (26-9,40.995)3.25%
Tōsaka Rin v. Takanashi Rikka52.77% - 47.23%
(31-4,44.634) (25-10,44.301)3.89%
Tokisaki Kurumi v. Sakura Chiyo52.85% - 47.15%
(28-7,45.475) (14-17,30.450)2.57%
Schwi Dola v. Yuigahama Yui51.88% - 48.12%
(22-9,36.638) (17-18,36.277)2.68%
Hikigaya Hachiman v. Astolfo62.97% - 37.03%
(35-0,49.452) (20-15,33.490)2.39%
Ayanokōji Kiyotaka v. Emiya Shirō50.85% - 49.15%
(27-8,37.652) (25-10,37.128)2.01%
Ainz Ooal Gown v. Orihara Izaya54.53% - 45.47%
(28-7,38.040) (9-22,25.805)2.83%
Eren Yeager v. Edogawa Conan46.83% - 53.17%
(16-19,32.761) (18-13,32.292)0.78%
Hinatsuru Ai v. Hanasaka Yui
(3-1,4.653) (3-1,3.895)
Aihara Mei v. μ
(3-1,3.831) (2-2,3.775)
Sora Ginko v. Yukimura Aoi
(3-1,4.899) (3-1,3.744)
Yashajin Ai v. Teresa Wagner
(3-1,4.701) (3-1,3.772)
Last meetings (Elimination 1)Show
2015 Topaz 3Tōsaka Rin38143745Takanashi Rikka
2018 Sapphire 2Tokisaki Kurumi29023865Sakura Chiyo
2015 Ruby 7Tokisaki Kurumi31143929Sakura Chiyo
2018 Sapphire 5Schwi Dola51553903Yuigahama Yui
2018 Diamond 1Hikigaya Hachiman1625510098Astolfo
2015 Topaz 3Image
2015 Ruby 7Image
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Re: 2018 Elimination stage general discussions

Post by liuxinyu970226 » Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:23 pm

Why Mikoto vs. Pikachu? I don't see any reason to allow Hall of Famers to participate such spin-off exhibition matches.
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Re: 2018 Elimination stage general discussions

Post by Chibasa » Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:35 pm

Why Mikoto vs. Pikachu? I don't see any reason to allow Hall of Famers to participate such spin-off exhibition matches.
Why would they need a specific reason? The idea of seeing exhib tournaments winners facing each other was even encouraged by community so I don't see where the problem is.
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Re: 2018 Elimination stage general discussions

Post by Ennadai » Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:00 pm

expected VF% (Elimination 2)Show
Name (W-L,CVP)FEV%STDV%
Yukinoshita Yukino v. Kinomoto Sakura52.45% - 47.55%
(31-4,47.072) (21-14,42.490)2.16%
Chtholly Nota Seniorious v. Illyasviel von Einzbern54.13% - 45.87%
(31-4,46.484) (27-8,42.607)1.21%
Nakano Azusa v. Kasumigaoka Utaha49.95% - 50.05%
(20-15,38.378) (18-13,31.925)2.84%
Kōsaka Reina v. Megumin48.45% - 51.55%
(17-18,37.102) (16-15,33.301)2.76%
Shiota Nagisa v. Saitama55.69% - 44.31%
(34-1,39.582) (22-13,35.144)1.71%
Okabe Rintarō v. Saiki Kusuo54.89% - 45.11%
(30-5,39.544) (22-13,35.190)2.76%
Emiya Kiritsugu v. Yato49.70% - 50.30%
(23-12,35.197) (20-11,30.780)2.47%
Akabane Karma v. Li Syaoran46.94% - 53.06%
(19-16,34.816) (23-8,31.242)3.07%
Tsuyuzaki Mahiru v. Special Week
(3-3,5.913) (5-1,5.078)
Misaka Mikoto v. Pikachu
(2-0,3.647) (3-0,5.017)
Hatsune Miku v. YoRHa No.2 Type B
(1-0,1.065) (3-0,3.243)
Atago v. WA2000
(0-0,0.000) (0-0,0.000)
Last meetings (Elimination 2)Show
2018 Amethyst 8Yukinoshita Yukino55213770Kinomoto Sakura
2018 Amethyst 8Chtholly Nota Seniorious81192768Illyasviel von Einzbern
2018 Ruby 4Nakano Azusa1617018054Kasumigaoka Utaha
2016 Topaz 3Nakano Azusa14731281Kasumigaoka Utaha
2018 Diamond 3Shiota Nagisa152579495Saitama
2018 Ruby 5Emiya Kiritsugu1571115197Yato
2015 Aquamarine 1Emiya Kiritsugu27002389Yato
2016 Topaz 3Image
2015 Aquamarine 1Image
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Re: 2018 Elimination stage general discussions

Post by liuxinyu970226 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:34 am

Chibasa wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:35 pm
Why would they need a specific reason? The idea of seeing exhib tournaments winners facing each other was even encouraged by community so I don't see where the problem is.
Thx, I now also agree that this match won't violate III.B.
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Re: 2018 Elimination stage general discussions

Post by Hirasawa Yui » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:40 am

So there will be several matches between the winners of all the tournaments in ISML 2018 right? Just like the final of the seasonal winners?
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Re: 2018 Elimination stage general discussions

Post by Hirasawa Yui » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:43 am

And I wonder about the schedule of the matches between the seasonal losers.
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Re: 2018 Elimination stage general discussions

Post by Chibasa » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:14 am

Hirasawa Yui wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:43 am
And I wonder about the schedule of the matches between the seasonal losers.
Quarterfinalist (losers) meet quarterfinalist (losers) from other season. Semifinalist (losers) meet semifinalist (losers) from other season and same goes for Finalist.

So most of em will just have one exhibition match.
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Re: 2018 Elimination stage general discussions

Post by Ennadai » Tue Jan 15, 2019 12:00 pm

Result (Elimination 1)Show
NameVF%
(FEV%)
Z-scorePV(0.1)PV(0.2)PV(0.5)
Kanna Kamui55.03%
(52.27%)
0.8151.864
(-0.096)
161.468
(+0.785)
160.975
(+11.435)
Izumi Sagiri44.97%
(47.73%)
-0.8122.540
(+0.096)
137.661
(-0.785)
152.330
(-11.435)
Tōsaka Rin37.12%
(52.77%)
-4.0134.641
(-3.875)
148.604
(-9.252)
158.133
(-29.737)
Takanashi Rikka62.88%
(47.23%)
4.0134.134
(+3.875)
152.044
(+9.252)
187.778
(+29.737)
Tokisaki Kurumi49.59%
(52.85%)
-1.3125.707
(-1.299)
130.426
(-2.028)
128.035
(-0.057)
Sakura Chiyo50.41%
(47.15%)
1.3104.234
(+1.299)
116.246
(+2.028)
130.059
(+0.057)
Schwi Dola51.38%
(51.88%)
-0.2119.982
(-0.155)
129.998
(-0.061)
142.246
(-0.972)
Yuigahama Yui48.62%
(48.12%)
0.2110.800
(+0.155)
122.515
(+0.061)
132.687
(+0.972)
Hikigaya Hachiman72.33%
(62.97%)
3.9177.890
(+3.125)
205.686
(+6.007)
230.588
(+12.784)
Astolfo27.67%
(37.03%)
-3.9106.921
(-3.125)
111.885
(-6.007)
105.867
(-12.784)
Ayanokōji Kiyotaka49.45%
(50.85%)
-0.7119.987
(-0.313)
127.048
(-0.642)
135.819
(-2.185)
Emiya Shirō50.55%
(49.15%)
0.7116.947
(+0.313)
124.681
(+0.642)
134.416
(+2.185)
Ainz Ooal Gown52.45%
(54.53%)
-0.7121.806
(-0.744)
129.460
(-1.224)
136.823
(-0.415)
Orihara Izaya47.55%
(45.47%)
0.797.672
(+0.744)
108.041
(+1.224)
123.260
(+0.415)
Eren Yeager48.91%
(46.83%)
2.7100.783
(+0.390)
105.646
(+0.741)
105.326
(+3.066)
Edogawa Conan51.09%
(53.17%)
-2.7112.436
(-0.390)
116.392
(-0.741)
116.269
(-3.066)
Match Card (Elimination 1)Show
ContestantVFContestantVFVDAbstention
Kanna Kamui20264Izumi Sagiri1656037040.0%
Takanashi Rikka22252Tōsaka Rin1313591173.9%
Hikigaya Hachiman25960Astolfo9929160312.5%
Emiya Shirō16983Ayanokōji Kiyotaka166143698.8%
Minamoto Momo15176Beelzebub1464253419.0%
Komai Hasuki15577Nagami Suzuka1535821916.0%
High Elf Archer18153Tatejima Kotetsu12927522615.6%
Erza Scarlet15759Takanashi Misha1539636315.4%
Itsuwa17020Hanazawa Yūna15054196612.9%
Kazano Asagi15492Tsuchimiya Asuka15486615.9%
Jeanne d’Arc16245Shinjō Akane1541782814.0%
Izawa Shizue16144Trish Una1529485014.6%
Sophie Twilight15700Ayasato Mayoi (Maya Fey)1543326715.5%
Danchō Arthur15876Nanami Tōko1513973715.8%
Kasaki Nozomi15294Hongō Tae12814248023.7%
Mizuno Ai19168Merc12430673814.2%
Sakura Chiyo17587Tokisaki Kurumi172982895.3%
Schwi Dola14674Yuigahama Yui1388379122.5%
Ainz Ooal Gown16144Orihara Izaya14637150716.4%
Edogawa Conan16470Eren Yeager1577070012.4%
Hanasaka Yui16395Hinatsuru Ai1605334211.9%
μ15460Aihara Mei1512833216.9%
Sora Ginko18372Yukimura Aoi14156421611.7%
Yashajin Ai16315Teresa Wagner162724311.5%
Female DivisionShow
E1CLPCVPWL
Kanna Kamui103.63953.985342E1W
Yūki Asuna96.66551.722314Diamond+
Rem102.86751.174341Diamond+
Yukinoshita Yukino96.52447.072314Diamond+
Tokisaki Kurumi90.40546.557288E1L
Chtholly Nota Seniorious96.52746.484314Diamond+
Nishimiya Shōko91.46646.144296Diamond+
Shiina Mashiro91.85546.084296Diamond+
Takanashi Rikka85.89445.6932610E1W
Tōsaka Rin96.51645.456315E1L
Tōru82.69243.8552510Diamond+
Haibara Ai75.82443.2052213Diamond
Shiro89.44943.188287Diamond+
Illyasviel von Einzbern86.61842.607278Diamond+
Kinomoto Sakura74.16342.4902114Diamond+
Makise Kurisu83.06742.1662510Diamond+
Izumi Sagiri85.73542.0302610E1L
Saber85.05841.838269Diamond+
Emilia74.38341.3932114Diamond
Nakano Azusa71.58438.3782015Diamond
Schwi Dola75.82937.556239E1W
Yuigahama Yui66.43637.1461719E1L
Kōsaka Reina64.65537.1021718Diamond
Kitashirakawa Tamako68.85836.8341916Diamond
Furukawa Nagisa75.41836.7372213Diamond
Suzumiya Haruhi60.37335.8341615Ruby
Aisaka Taiga70.21835.0222110Ruby
Kuriyama Mirai55.26233.9311417Ruby
Megumin59.53133.3011615Ruby
Nagato Yuki66.09833.2011912Ruby
Tomori Nao64.16132.2321813Ruby
Kasumigaoka Utaha63.39231.9251813Ruby
Nibutani Shinka53.27031.8201318Ruby
Sakura Chiyo57.56231.5511517E1W
Aoyama Nanami58.87330.5881615Ruby
Daidōji Tomoyo42.98329.427922Ruby
Male DivisionShow
E1CLPCVPWL
Hikigaya Hachiman108.00051.076360E1W
Levi100.97446.488332Diamond+
Gilgamesh96.46540.703314Diamond+
Shiota Nagisa102.89239.582341Diamond+
Okabe Rintarō94.37239.544305Diamond+
Riku Dola98.40539.112323Diamond+
Ainz Ooal Gown93.38139.050297E1W
Ayanokōji Kiyotaka89.08838.691279E1L
Archer93.90338.343305Diamond+
Emiya Shirō85.94138.1902610E1W
Kamijō Tōma81.72736.7152411Diamond+
Togashi Yūta81.08936.6952411Diamond
Tachibana Taki80.03736.186256Ruby
Willem Kmetsch82.51935.3292510Diamond+
Emiya Kiritsugu78.65235.1972312Diamond
Saiki Kusuo77.17835.1902213Diamond+
Saitama76.49935.1442213Diamond+
Akabane Karma70.99534.8161916Diamond
Todoroki Shōto83.31034.3672510Diamond+
Okazaki Tomoya80.22034.2462411Diamond+
Ishida Shōya73.36634.1382114Diamond
Astolfo72.22834.1112016E1L
Eren Yeager63.35733.7481620E1L
Edogawa Conan68.58933.3231913E1W
Natsuki Subaru66.06332.9361718Diamond
Natsume Takashi73.16632.000229Ruby
Kyon70.24431.3771916Diamond
Li Syaoran75.39531.242238Ruby
Yato69.10430.7802011Ruby
Midoriya Izuku64.75029.9581813Ruby
Takasu Ryūji62.76629.7451714Ruby
Satō Kazuma58.43329.2581516Ruby
Edward Elric53.47328.6311318Ruby
Kaneki Ken57.89328.5601516Ruby
Uchiha Itachi46.04827.896922Ruby
Orihara Izaya44.33326.721923E1L
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Re: 2018 Elimination stage general discussions

Post by Ennadai » Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:30 pm

Result (Elimination 1) (REVISED VERSION)Show
NameVF%
(FEV%)
Z-scorePV(0.1)PV(0.2)PV(0.5)
Kanna Kamui55.03%
(52.27%)
0.8151.863
(-0.096)
161.467
(+0.784)
160.973
(+11.433)
Izumi Sagiri44.97%
(47.73%)
-0.8122.540
(+0.096)
137.662
(-0.784)
152.332
(-11.433)
Tōsaka Rin37.12%
(52.77%)
-4.0134.641
(-3.875)
148.604
(-9.252)
158.134
(-29.735)
Takanashi Rikka62.88%
(47.23%)
4.0134.133
(+3.875)
152.044
(+9.252)
187.776
(+29.735)
Tokisaki Kurumi49.59%
(52.85%)
-1.3125.707
(-1.299)
130.426
(-2.028)
128.034
(-0.057)
Sakura Chiyo50.41%
(47.15%)
1.3104.234
(+1.299)
116.246
(+2.028)
130.060
(+0.057)
Schwi Dola51.38%
(51.88%)
-0.2119.982
(-0.155)
129.998
(-0.061)
142.246
(-0.972)
Yuigahama Yui48.62%
(48.12%)
0.2110.800
(+0.155)
122.515
(+0.061)
132.687
(+0.972)
Hikigaya Hachiman72.34%
(62.97%)
3.9177.891
(+3.126)
205.687
(+6.008)
230.592
(+12.787)
Astolfo27.66%
(37.03%)
-3.9106.920
(-3.126)
111.884
(-6.008)
105.864
(-12.787)
Ayanokōji Kiyotaka49.45%
(50.85%)
-0.7119.987
(-0.313)
127.048
(-0.642)
135.819
(-2.185)
Emiya Shirō50.55%
(49.15%)
0.7116.947
(+0.313)
124.681
(+0.642)
134.416
(+2.185)
Ainz Ooal Gown52.45%
(54.53%)
-0.7121.806
(-0.744)
129.460
(-1.224)
136.823
(-0.414)
Orihara Izaya47.55%
(45.47%)
0.797.672
(+0.744)
108.041
(+1.224)
123.260
(+0.414)
Eren Yeager48.91%
(46.83%)
2.7100.783
(+0.390)
105.646
(+0.741)
105.325
(+3.066)
Edogawa Conan51.09%
(53.17%)
-2.7112.436
(-0.390)
116.392
(-0.741)
116.269
(-3.066)
Match Card (Elimination 1) (REVISED VERSION)Show
ContestantVFContestantVFVDAbstention
Kanna Kamui20263Izumi Sagiri1656037032.5%
Takanashi Rikka22251Tōsaka Rin1313591166.3%
Hikigaya Hachiman25960Astolfo9928160325.0%
Emiya Shirō16982Ayanokōji Kiyotaka1661336911.1%
Minamoto Momo15176Beelzebub1464253421.1%
Komai Hasuki15577Nagami Suzuka1535821918.1%
High Elf Archer18152Tatejima Kotetsu12926522617.7%
Erza Scarlet15758Takanashi Misha1539536317.5%
Itsuwa17020Hanazawa Yūna15053196715.1%
Kazano Asagi15491Tsuchimiya Asuka15486518.0%
Jeanne d’Arc16245Shinjō Akane1541682916.2%
Izawa Shizue16143Trish Una1529385016.8%
Sophie Twilight15700Ayasato Mayoi (Maya Fey)1543226817.6%
Danchō Arthur15876Nanami Tōko1513873817.9%
Kasaki Nozomi15293Hongō Tae12814247925.6%
Mizuno Ai19168Merc12429673916.3%
Sakura Chiyo17586Tokisaki Kurumi172972897.6%
Schwi Dola14674Yuigahama Yui1388379124.4%
Ainz Ooal Gown16143Orihara Izaya14636150718.5%
Edogawa Conan16469Eren Yeager1576970014.6%
Hanasaka Yui16394Hinatsuru Ai1605234214.1%
μ15459Aihara Mei1512833119.0%
Sora Ginko18371Yukimura Aoi14155421613.9%
Yashajin Ai16314Teresa Wagner162714313.7%
Female Division (Elimination 1) (REVISED VERSION)Show
CLPCVPWL
Kanna Kamui103.63953.985342E1W
Yūki Asuna96.66551.722314Diamond+
Rem102.86751.174341Diamond+
Yukinoshita Yukino96.52447.072314Diamond+
Chtholly Nota Seniorious96.52746.484314Diamond+
Nishimiya Shōko91.46646.144296Diamond+
Shiina Mashiro91.85546.084296Diamond+
Tokisaki Kurumi90.40546.557288E1L
Takanashi Rikka85.89445.6932610E1W
Tōsaka Rin96.51645.456315E1L
Tōru82.69243.8552510Diamond+
Haibara Ai75.82443.2052213Diamond
Shiro89.44943.188287Diamond+
Illyasviel von Einzbern86.61842.607278Diamond+
Kinomoto Sakura74.16342.4902114Diamond+
Makise Kurisu83.06742.1662510Diamond+
Saber85.05841.838269Diamond+
Emilia74.38341.3932114Diamond
Schwi Dola75.82937.556239E1W
Izumi Sagiri85.73542.0302610E1L
Suzumiya Haruhi60.37335.8341615Ruby
Aisaka Taiga70.21835.0222110Ruby
Nakano Azusa71.58438.3782015Diamond
Kuriyama Mirai55.26233.9311417Ruby
Megumin59.53133.3011615Ruby
Nagato Yuki66.09833.2011912Ruby
Kōsaka Reina64.65537.1021718Diamond
Kitashirakawa Tamako68.85836.8341916Diamond
Furukawa Nagisa75.41836.7372213Diamond
Tomori Nao64.16132.2321813Ruby
Yuigahama Yui66.43637.1461719E1L
Kasumigaoka Utaha63.39231.9251813Ruby
Nibutani Shinka53.27031.8201318Ruby
Aoyama Nanami58.87330.5881615Ruby
Sakura Chiyo57.56231.5501517E1W
Daidōji Tomoyo42.98329.427922Ruby
Male Division (Elimination 1) (REVISED VERSION)Show
CLPCVPWL
Hikigaya Hachiman108.00051.076360E1W
Levi100.97446.488332Diamond+
Tachibana Taki80.03736.186256Ruby
Gilgamesh96.46540.703314Diamond+
Shiota Nagisa102.89239.582341Diamond+
Okabe Rintarō94.37239.544305Diamond+
Riku Dola98.40539.112323Diamond+
Archer93.90338.343305Diamond+
Ainz Ooal Gown93.38139.050297E1W
Ayanokōji Kiyotaka89.08838.691279E1L
Emiya Shirō85.94138.1902610E1W
Kamijō Tōma81.72736.7152411Diamond+
Togashi Yūta81.08936.6952411Diamond
Edogawa Conan68.58933.3231913E1W
Natsume Takashi73.16632.000229Ruby
Willem Kmetsch82.51935.3292510Diamond+
Li Syaoran75.39531.242238Ruby
Emiya Kiritsugu78.65235.1972312Diamond
Saiki Kusuo77.17835.1902213Diamond+
Saitama76.49935.1442213Diamond+
Akabane Karma70.99534.8161916Diamond
Yato69.10430.7802011Ruby
Todoroki Shōto83.31034.3672510Diamond+
Okazaki Tomoya80.22034.2462411Diamond+
Ishida Shōya73.36634.1382114Diamond
Midoriya Izuku64.75029.9581813Ruby
Takasu Ryūji62.76629.7451714Ruby
Astolfo72.22834.1112016E1L
Satō Kazuma58.43329.2581516Ruby
Natsuki Subaru66.06332.9361718Diamond
Eren Yeager63.35733.7481620E1L
Edward Elric53.47328.6311318Ruby
Kaneki Ken57.89328.5601516Ruby
Uchiha Itachi46.04827.896922Ruby
Kyon70.24431.3771916Diamond
Orihara Izaya44.33326.721923E1L
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Re: 2018 Elimination stage general discussions

Post by Ennadai » Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:00 pm

expected VF% (Elimination 3)Show
Name (W-L,CVP)FEV%STDV%
Rem v. Makise Kurisu57.41% - 42.59%
(34-1,51.174) (25-10,42.166)2.57%
Nishimiya Shōko v. Shiro49.28% - 50.72%
(29-6,46.144) (28-7,43.188)2.23%
Emilia v. Nibutani Shinka52.29% - 47.71%
(21-14,41.393) (13-18,31.820)3.17%
Kitashirakawa Tamako v. Aisaka Taiga51.47% - 48.53%
(19-16,36.834) (21-10,35.022)2.43%
Kuriyama Mirai v. Daidōji Tomoyo55.45% - 44.55%
(14-17,33.931) (9-22,29.427)2.01%
Nagato Yuki v. Tomori Nao50.18% - 49.82%
(19-12,33.201) (18-13,32.232)3.13%
Gilgamesh v. Todoroki Shōto53.34% - 46.66%
(31-4,40.703) (25-10,34.367)1.76%
Riku Dola v. Willem Kmetsch50.98% - 49.02%
(32-3,39.112) (25-10,35.329)2.71%
Tachibana Taki v. Midoriya Izuku50.63% - 49.37%
(25-6,36.186) (18-13,29.958)1.99%
Ishida Shōya v. Kyon48.44% - 51.56%
(21-14,34.138) (19-16,31.377)1.79%
Satō Kazuma v. Uchiha Itachi50.87% - 49.13%
(15-16,29.258) (9-22,27.896)2.23%
Edward Elric v. Kaneki Ken51.00% - 49.00%
(13-18,28.631) (15-16,28.560)1.49%
Last meetings (Elimination 3)Show
2017 Elimination 1Rem28891656Makise Kurisu
2017 Sapphire 9Rem1638996Makise Kurisu
2018 Ruby 4Emilia2229219111Nibutani Shinka
2018 Ruby 1Kitashirakawa Tamako97929515Aisaka Taiga
2016 Ruby 5Nagato Yuki11381480Tomori Nao
2018 Topaz 8Gilgamesh38023134Todoroki Shōto
2018 Amethyst 6Riku Dola46923877Willem Kmetsch
2018 Sapphire 4Tachibana Taki23652169Midoriya Izuku
2018 Amethyst 5Satō Kazuma31033069Uchiha Itachi
2018 Emerald 5Edward Elric966710855Kaneki Ken
2015 Aquamarine 1Edward Elric32371899Kaneki Ken
2016 Ruby 5Image
2015 Aquamarine 1Image
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Re: 2018 Elimination stage general discussions

Post by Ennadai » Fri Jan 18, 2019 1:45 pm

Result (Elimination 2)Show
NameVF%
(FEV%)
Z-scorePV(0.1)PV(0.2)PV(0.5)
Yukinoshita Yukino58.07%
(52.45%)
2.6139.677
(+1.244)
151.175
(+3.142)
162.947
(+9.687)
Kinomoto Sakura41.93%
(47.55%)
-2.6120.116
(-1.244)
130.773
(-3.142)
134.314
(-9.687)
Chtholly Nota Seniorious52.22%
(54.13%)
-1.6139.811
(-0.407)
149.517
(-1.047)
149.520
(-3.229)
Illyasviel von Einzbern47.78%
(45.87%)
1.6120.910
(+0.407)
128.790
(+1.047)
130.629
(+3.229)
Nakano Azusa52.08%
(49.95%)
0.7114.728
(+0.067)
122.889
(+0.577)
128.933
(+6.329)
Kasumigaoka Utaha47.92%
(50.05%)
-0.7106.727
(-0.067)
117.519
(-0.577)
130.802
(-6.329)
Kōsaka Reina48.39%
(48.45%)
0.0107.807
(-0.393)
113.552
(-0.523)
118.094
(+3.520)
Megumin51.61%
(51.55%)
0.0107.657
(+0.393)
116.772
(+0.523)
133.215
(-3.520)
Shiota Nagisa50.15%
(55.69%)
-3.2131.025
(-1.108)
138.125
(-2.723)
144.056
(-8.980)
Saitama49.85%
(44.31%)
3.2110.359
(+1.108)
115.577
(+2.723)
125.282
(+8.980)
Okabe Rintarō52.96%
(54.89%)
-0.7131.802
(-0.144)
146.310
(-0.886)
161.183
(-5.309)
Saiki Kusuo47.04%
(45.11%)
0.7114.643
(+0.144)
123.287
(+0.886)
133.169
(+5.309)
Emiya Kiritsugu50.50%
(49.70%)
0.3111.659
(+0.135)
118.837
(+0.440)
131.405
(+1.144)
Yato49.50%
(50.30%)
-0.3111.854
(-0.135)
119.964
(-0.440)
131.061
(-1.144)
Akabane Karma49.87%
(46.94%)
1.0109.787
(+0.285)
115.511
(+1.435)
129.986
(+6.301)
Li Syaoran50.13%
(53.06%)
-1.0115.497
(-0.285)
127.610
(-1.435)
143.284
(-6.301)
Match Card (Elimination 2)Show
ContestantVFContestantVFVDAbstention
Yukinoshita Yukino18113Kinomoto Sakura1307650375.8%
Chtholly Nota Seniorious17285Illyasviel von Einzbern1581614690.0%
Shiota Nagisa14449Saitama143628713.0%
Okabe Rintarō15089Saiki Kusuo13405168413.9%
Sakurajima Mai17792Beelzebub11599619311.2%
Alice Zuberg15961Nagami Suzuka12603335813.7%
Koito Yū14357Tatejima Kotetsu1372263515.2%
Azusagawa Kaede15389Takanashi Misha13434195512.9%
Juliet Persia13728Hanazawa Yūna1282890019.8%
Takarada Rikka16287Tsuchimiya Asuka12433385413.2%
Minamoto Sakura15692Shinjō Akane13154253812.9%
Index L. Prohibitorum15513Trish Una13321219212.9%
Priestess15104Ayasato Mayoi (Maya Fey)13321178314.1%
Nanami Tōko14325Tsukishiro Hitomi1387245314.8%
Futaba Rio15196Hongō Tae13012218414.8%
Yoroizuka Mizore14233Merc12459177419.4%
Nakano Azusa15294Kasumigaoka Utaha14074122011.3%
Megumin15280Kōsaka Reina1432895210.6%
Emiya Kiritsugu14559Yato1427028912.9%
Li Syaoran14383Akabane Karma143107313.3%
Tsuyuzaki Mahiru14351Special Week1397337814.4%
Misaka Mikoto19191Pikachu1111780748.4%
Hatsune Miku15640YoRHa No.2 Type B13405223512.3%
Atago14244WA20001378346115.3%
Female Division (Elimination 2)Show
CLPCVPWL
Kanna Kamui103.63953.985342E1W
Yūki Asuna96.66551.722314Diamond+
Rem102.86751.174341Diamond+
Yukinoshita Yukino99.52448.326324E2W
Chtholly Nota Seniorious99.52747.681324E2W
Nishimiya Shōko91.46646.144296Diamond+
Shiina Mashiro91.85546.084296Diamond+
Tokisaki Kurumi90.40546.557288E1L
Takanashi Rikka85.89445.6932610E1W
Tōsaka Rin96.51645.456315E1L
Tōru82.69243.8552510Diamond+
Haibara Ai75.82443.2052213Diamond
Shiro89.44943.188287Diamond+
Illyasviel von Einzbern87.53343.702279E2L
Kinomoto Sakura74.88443.3952115E2L
Makise Kurisu83.06742.1662510Diamond+
Saber85.05841.838269Diamond+
Emilia74.38341.3932114Diamond
Schwi Dola75.82937.556239E1W
Izumi Sagiri85.73542.0302610E1L
Suzumiya Haruhi60.37335.8341615Ruby
Aisaka Taiga70.21835.0222110Ruby
Nakano Azusa74.58439.4372115E2W
Kuriyama Mirai55.26233.9311417Ruby
Megumin62.53134.3601715E2W
Nagato Yuki66.09833.2011912Ruby
Kōsaka Reina65.59238.0951719E2L
Kitashirakawa Tamako68.85836.8341916Diamond
Furukawa Nagisa75.41836.7372213Diamond
Tomori Nao64.16132.2321813Ruby
Yuigahama Yui66.43637.1461719E1L
Kasumigaoka Utaha64.31232.8991814E2L
Nibutani Shinka53.27031.8201318Ruby
Aoyama Nanami58.87330.5881615Ruby
Sakura Chiyo57.56231.5501517E1W
Daidōji Tomoyo42.98329.427922Ruby
Male Division (Elimination 2)Show
CLPCVPWL
Hikigaya Hachiman108.00051.076360E1W
Levi100.97446.488332Diamond+
Tachibana Taki80.03736.186256Ruby
Gilgamesh96.46540.703314Diamond+
Okabe Rintarō97.37240.589315E2W
Shiota Nagisa105.89240.582351E2W
Riku Dola98.40539.112323Diamond+
Archer93.90338.343305Diamond+
Ainz Ooal Gown93.38139.050297E1W
Ayanokōji Kiyotaka89.08838.691279E1L
Emiya Shirō85.94138.1902610E1W
Kamijō Tōma81.72736.7152411Diamond+
Togashi Yūta81.08936.6952411Diamond
Edogawa Conan68.58933.3231913E1W
Natsume Takashi73.16632.000229Ruby
Willem Kmetsch82.51935.3292510Diamond+
Li Syaoran78.39532.238248E2W
Emiya Kiritsugu81.65236.2052412E2W
Saitama77.49336.1382214E2L
Saiki Kusuo78.06636.1182214E2L
Akabane Karma71.99035.8071917E2L
Yato70.08431.7682012E2L
Todoroki Shōto83.31034.3672510Diamond+
Okazaki Tomoya80.22034.2462411Diamond+
Ishida Shōya73.36634.1382114Diamond
Midoriya Izuku64.75029.9581813Ruby
Takasu Ryūji62.76629.7451714Ruby
Astolfo72.22834.1112016E1L
Satō Kazuma58.43329.2581516Ruby
Natsuki Subaru66.06332.9361718Diamond
Eren Yeager63.35733.7481620E1L
Edward Elric53.47328.6311318Ruby
Kaneki Ken57.89328.5601516Ruby
Uchiha Itachi46.04827.896922Ruby
Kyon70.24431.3771916Diamond
Orihara Izaya44.33326.721923E1L
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Re: 2018 Elimination stage general discussions

Post by Ennadai » Wed Jan 23, 2019 12:00 pm

Result (Elimination 3)Show
NameVF%
(FEV%)
Z-scorePV(0.1)PV(0.2)PV(0.5)
Rem77.05%
(57.41%)
7.7168.644
(+5.672)
195.871
(+12.061)
226.399
(+33.660)
Makise Kurisu22.95%
(42.59%)
-7.7116.489
(-5.672)
120.956
(-12.061)
111.121
(-33.660)
Nishimiya Shōko42.32%
(49.28%)
-3.1126.892
(-2.098)
129.143
(-3.792)
131.970
(-8.228)
Shiro57.68%
(50.72%)
3.1128.346
(+2.098)
140.183
(+3.792)
160.439
(+8.228)
Emilia61.31%
(52.29%)
2.8119.328
(+1.985)
134.008
(+4.163)
155.109
(+13.329)
Nibutani Shinka38.69%
(47.71%)
-2.8104.432
(-1.985)
111.714
(-4.163)
119.611
(-13.329)
Kitashirakawa Tamako46.73%
(51.47%)
-2.0105.832
(-0.583)
114.358
(-1.994)
123.734
(-8.783)
Aisaka Taiga53.27%
(48.53%)
2.0109.413
(+0.583)
113.302
(+1.994)
122.259
(+8.783)
Kuriyama Mirai49.51%
(55.45%)
-2.9106.245
(-0.765)
110.636
(-1.853)
111.299
(-9.764)
Daidōji Tomoyo50.49%
(44.55%)
2.994.428
(+0.765)
97.834
(+1.853)
93.763
(+9.764)
Nagato Yuki49.76%
(50.18%)
-0.1111.550
(-0.203)
121.304
(-0.461)
133.391
(+0.809)
Tomori Nao50.24%
(49.82%)
0.1108.976
(+0.203)
118.792
(+0.461)
136.326
(-0.809)
Gilgamesh40.60%
(53.34%)
-7.2131.792
(-3.236)
138.716
(-6.880)
132.988
(-18.178)
Todoroki Shōto59.40%
(46.66%)
7.2121.057
(+3.236)
135.150
(+6.880)
149.777
(+18.178)
Riku Dola58.66%
(50.98%)
2.8129.575
(+1.498)
137.225
(+4.099)
155.842
(+13.033)
Willem Kmetsch41.34%
(49.02%)
-2.8114.321
(-1.498)
124.676
(-4.099)
132.067
(-13.033)
Tachibana Taki50.73%
(50.63%)
0.1122.473
(-0.370)
125.869
(+0.066)
130.806
(+2.295)
Midoriya Izuku49.27%
(49.37%)
-0.1112.379
(+0.370)
122.760
(-0.066)
131.556
(-2.295)
Ishida Shōya50.16%
(48.44%)
1.0110.990
(+0.072)
115.356
(+0.837)
120.081
(+3.822)
Kyon49.84%
(51.56%)
-1.0111.555
(-0.072)
121.280
(-0.837)
126.919
(-3.822)
Satō Kazuma54.16%
(50.87%)
1.5107.296
(+0.672)
115.607
(+1.473)
127.059
(+4.098)
Uchiha Itachi45.84%
(49.13%)
-1.5101.978
(-0.672)
108.725
(-1.473)
115.106
(-4.098)
Edward Elric51.23%
(51.00%)
0.2104.663
(+0.208)
111.515
(+0.492)
116.232
(-1.590)
Kaneki Ken48.77%
(49.00%)
-0.2103.272
(-0.208)
109.986
(-0.492)
107.536
(+1.590)
Match Card (Elimination 3)Show
ContestantVFContestantVFVDAbstention
Rem28765Makise Kurisu8568201977.3%
Shiro21088Nishimiya Shōko1547156179.2%
Todoroki Shōto19809Gilgamesh13541626817.2%
Riku Dola22407Willem Kmetsch1579466135.1%
Sakurajima Mai23943Minamoto Momo98871405616.0%
Alice Zuberg19072Komai Hasuki13794527818.4%
High Elf Archer15166Koito Yū12127303932.2%
Azusagawa Kaede17284Erza Scarlet15491179318.6%
Juliet Persia16662Itsuwa14882178021.7%
Takarada Rikka16893Kazano Asagi15382151119.8%
Minamoto Sakura17343Jeanne d’Arc14900244319.9%
Index L. Prohibitorum17133Izawa Shizue15113202019.9%
Priestess16658Sophie Twilight15345131320.5%
Tsukishiro Hitomi13628Danchō Arthur1308754133.7%
Futaba Rio16631Kasaki Nozomi1573789419.6%
Yoroizuka Mizore16749Mizuno Ai15595115419.7%
Emilia20254Nibutani Shinka12780747418.0%
Aisaka Taiga18136Kitashirakawa Tamako15909222715.4%
Daidōji Tomoyo16889Kuriyama Mirai1656432516.9%
Tomori Nao16878Nagato Yuki1671416416.6%
Tachibana Taki16326Midoriya Izuku1585547120.1%
Ishida Shōya15851Kyon1574810321.5%
Satō Kazuma17179Uchiha Itachi14540263921.2%
Edward Elric16457Kaneki Ken1566579220.2%
Female Division (Elimination 3)Show
CLPCVPWL
Kanna Kamui103.63953.985342E1W
Yūki Asuna96.66551.722314Diamond+
Rem105.86752.931351E3W
Yukinoshita Yukino99.52448.326324E2W
Chtholly Nota Seniorious99.52747.681324E2W
Shiina Mashiro91.85546.084296Diamond+
Nishimiya Shōko92.20047.089297E3L
Tokisaki Kurumi90.40546.557288E1L
Takanashi Rikka85.89445.6932610E1W
Tōsaka Rin96.51645.456315E1L
Tōru82.69243.8552510Diamond+
Shiro92.44944.477297E3W
Haibara Ai75.82443.2052213Diamond
Illyasviel von Einzbern87.53343.702279E2L
Kinomoto Sakura74.88443.3952115E2L
Saber85.05841.838269Diamond+
Makise Kurisu83.36542.6902511E3L
Emilia77.38342.6302214E3W
Schwi Dola75.82937.556239E1W
Izumi Sagiri85.73542.0302610E1L
Suzumiya Haruhi60.37335.8341615Ruby
Aisaka Taiga73.21836.1302210E3W
Nakano Azusa74.58439.4372115E2W
Kuriyama Mirai56.24234.9431418E3L
Megumin62.53134.3601715E2W
Nagato Yuki67.08934.2221913E3L
Kōsaka Reina65.59238.0951719E2L
Kitashirakawa Tamako69.73537.8061917E3L
Furukawa Nagisa75.41836.7372213Diamond
Tomori Nao67.16133.2631913E3W
Yuigahama Yui66.43637.1461719E1L
Kasumigaoka Utaha64.31232.8991814E2L
Nibutani Shinka53.90132.6011319E3L
Aoyama Nanami58.87330.5881615Ruby
Sakura Chiyo57.56231.5501517E1W
Daidōji Tomoyo45.98330.4591022E3W
Male Division (Elimination 3)Show
CLPCVPWL
Hikigaya Hachiman108.00051.076360E1W
Levi100.97446.488332Diamond+
Tachibana Taki83.03737.184266E3W
Gilgamesh97.14941.530315E3L
Okabe Rintarō97.37240.589315E2W
Shiota Nagisa105.89240.582351E2W
Riku Dola101.40540.481333E3W
Archer93.90338.343305Diamond+
Ainz Ooal Gown93.38139.050297E1W
Ayanokōji Kiyotaka89.08838.691279E1L
Emiya Shirō85.94138.1902610E1W
Kamijō Tōma81.72736.7152411Diamond+
Togashi Yūta81.08936.6952411Diamond
Edogawa Conan68.58933.3231913E1W
Natsume Takashi73.16632.000229Ruby
Willem Kmetsch83.22436.2942511E3L
Li Syaoran78.39532.238248E2W
Emiya Kiritsugu81.65236.2052412E2W
Saitama77.49336.1382214E2L
Saiki Kusuo78.06636.1182214E2L
Akabane Karma71.99035.8071917E2L
Yato70.08431.7682012E2L
Todoroki Shōto86.31035.5772610E3W
Okazaki Tomoya80.22034.2462411Diamond+
Ishida Shōya76.36635.1062214E3W
Midoriya Izuku65.72130.9261814E3L
Takasu Ryūji62.76629.7451714Ruby
Astolfo72.22834.1112016E1L
Satō Kazuma61.43330.3081616E3W
Natsuki Subaru66.06332.9361718Diamond
Eren Yeager63.35733.7481620E1L
Edward Elric56.47329.6361418E3W
Kaneki Ken58.84429.5171517E3L
Uchiha Itachi46.89428.784923E3L
Kyon71.23732.3391917E3L
Orihara Izaya44.33326.721923E1L
Last edited by Ennadai on Sat Jan 26, 2019 10:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Ennadai
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Re: 2018 Elimination stage general discussions

Post by Ennadai » Wed Jan 23, 2019 6:00 pm

expected VF% (Elimination 4)Show
Name (W-L,CVP)FEV%STDV%
Yūki Asuna v. Saber60.53% - 39.47%
(31-4,51.722) (26-9,41.838)3.74%
Shiina Mashiro v. Tōru51.78% - 48.22%
(29-6,46.084) (25-10,43.855)3.33%
Haibara Ai v. Aoyama Nanami49.86% - 50.14%
(22-13,43.205) (16-15,30.588)1.71%
Furukawa Nagisa v. Suzumiya Haruhi47.74% - 52.26%
(22-13,36.737) (16-15,35.834)1.74%
Tomori Nao v. Daidōji Tomoyo55.89% - 44.11%
(19-13,33.263) (10-22,30.459)2.45%
Kuriyama Mirai v. Nagato Yuki47.32% - 52.68%
(14-18,34.943) (19-13,34.222)2.01%
Levi v. Okazaki Tomoya61.44% - 38.56%
(33-2,46.488) (24-11,34.246)1.83%
Archer v. Kamijō Tōma48.87% - 51.13%
(30-5,38.343) (24-11,36.715)2.18%
Togashi Yūta v. Takasu Ryūji53.75% - 46.25%
(24-11,36.695) (17-14,29.745)0.99%
Natsuki Subaru v. Natsume Takashi50.69% - 49.31%
(17-18,32.936) (22-9,32.000)1.86%
Satō Kazuma v. Edward Elric51.25% - 48.75%
(16-16,30.308) (14-18,29.636)2.16%
Kaneki Ken v. Uchiha Itachi49.63% - 50.37%
(15-17,29.517) (9-23,28.784)1.48%
Last meetings (Elimination 4)Show
2018 Diamond 3Yūki Asuna93066358Saber
2017 Ruby 6Yūki Asuna19392640Saber
2016 Elimination 2Yūki Asuna20162313Saber
2016 Round16 1Yūki Asuna15281558Saber
2015 Topaz 3Yūki Asuna35213867Saber
2016 Diamond 4Archer12621324Kamijō Tōma
2015 Aquamarine 1Archer27312642Kamijō Tōma
2018 Diamond 3Levi197815975Okazaki Tomoya
2018 Topaz 7Levi43552480Okazaki Tomoya
2017 Ruby 2Levi903881Okazaki Tomoya
2015 Amethyst 1Levi22872669Okazaki Tomoya
2017 Amethyst 12Furukawa Nagisa797882Suzumiya Haruhi
2013 Ruby 5Furukawa Nagisa24864287Suzumiya Haruhi
2012 Emerald 4Furukawa Nagisa22453877Suzumiya Haruhi
2011 Diamond 3Furukawa Nagisa22363573Suzumiya Haruhi
2010 Aquamarine 3Furukawa Nagisa23762893Suzumiya Haruhi
2009 Aquamarine 3Furukawa Nagisa8951164Suzumiya Haruhi
2008 Aquamarine 5Furukawa Nagisa116136Suzumiya Haruhi
2018 Emerald 5Tomori Nao1151310731Daidōji Tomoyo
2018 Ruby 1Kuriyama Mirai964210002Nagato Yuki
2018 Topaz 10Togashi Yūta50163432Takasu Ryūji
2015 Emerald 6Togashi Yūta22672285Takasu Ryūji
2018 Aquamarine 13Natsuki Subaru37964177Natsume Takashi
2017 Sapphire 3Natsuki Subaru1079958Natsume Takashi
2017 Elimination 4Satō Kazuma20081950Edward Elric
2017 Ruby 4Satō Kazuma1160995Edward Elric
2016 Elimination 2Image
2016 Round16 1Image
2015 Topaz 3Image
2016 Diamond 4Image
2015 Aquamarine 1Image
2015 Amethyst 1Image
2013 Ruby 5Image
2012 Emerald 4Image
2011 Diamond 3Image
2015 Emerald 6Image
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Ennadai
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Re: 2018 Elimination stage general discussions

Post by Ennadai » Sun Jan 27, 2019 5:00 am

Result (Elimination 4)Show
NameVF%
(FEV%)
Z-scorePV(0.1)PV(0.2)PV(0.5)
Yūki Asuna55.32%
(60.53%)
-1.4164.436
(-0.623)
189.639
(-2.804)
218.645
(-16.696)
Saber44.68%
(39.47%)
1.4122.662
(+0.623)
132.874
(+2.804)
146.390
(+16.696)
Shiina Mashiro52.74%
(51.78%)
0.3137.440
(+0.127)
150.888
(+0.406)
169.224
(+2.751)
Tōru47.26%
(48.22%)
-0.3125.334
(-0.127)
138.291
(-0.406)
156.858
(-2.751)
Haibara Ai42.98%
(49.86%)
-4.0109.205
(-1.841)
111.083
(-3.186)
107.102
(-6.039)
Aoyama Nanami57.02%
(50.14%)
4.0106.331
(+1.841)
117.712
(+3.186)
128.032
(+6.039)
Furukawa Nagisa55.91%
(47.74%)
4.7109.666
(+1.477)
115.982
(+3.388)
121.007
(+12.515)
Suzumiya Haruhi44.09%
(52.26%)
-4.7110.259
(-1.477)
115.703
(-3.388)
117.807
(-12.515)
Tomori Nao51.42%
(55.89%)
-1.8108.536
(-0.439)
117.309
(-1.483)
127.314
(-9.013)
Daidōji Tomoyo48.58%
(44.11%)
1.894.868
(+0.439)
99.316
(+1.483)
102.775
(+9.013)
Kuriyama Mirai51.17%
(47.32%)
1.9106.766
(+0.521)
112.247
(+1.612)
118.259
(+6.960)
Nagato Yuki48.83%
(52.68%)
-1.9111.029
(-0.521)
119.692
(-1.612)
126.431
(-6.960)
Levi68.47%
(61.44%)
3.8162.269
(+2.630)
177.979
(+4.170)
184.684
(+5.715)
Okazaki Tomoya31.53%
(38.56%)
-3.8109.282
(-2.630)
106.311
(-4.170)
93.381
(-5.715)
Archer70.47%
(48.87%)
9.9127.500
(+4.783)
138.157
(+10.646)
157.377
(+32.757)
Kamijō Tōma29.53%
(51.13%)
-9.9114.498
(-4.783)
118.307
(-10.646)
112.414
(-32.757)
Togashi Yūta51.40%
(53.75%)
-2.4118.409
(-0.313)
123.780
(-0.913)
124.563
(-4.359)
Takasu Ryūji48.60%
(46.25%)
2.4106.490
(+0.313)
109.946
(+0.913)
109.313
(+4.359)
Natsuki Subaru47.75%
(50.69%)
-1.6109.525
(-0.429)
118.923
(-1.578)
123.147
(-4.395)
Natsume Takashi52.25%
(49.31%)
1.6111.770
(+0.429)
116.914
(+1.578)
125.553
(+4.395)
Satō Kazuma50.26%
(51.25%)
-0.5107.219
(-0.078)
115.313
(-0.293)
124.663
(-2.396)
Edward Elric49.74%
(48.75%)
0.5104.740
(+0.078)
111.808
(+0.293)
118.629
(+2.396)
Kaneki Ken52.48%
(49.63%)
1.9103.715
(+0.443)
110.943
(+0.957)
112.184
(+4.648)
Uchiha Itachi47.52%
(50.37%)
-1.9101.534
(-0.443)
107.768
(-0.957)
110.458
(-4.648)
Match Card (Elimination 4)Show
ContestantVFContestantVFVDAbstention
Yūki Asuna18094Saber14612348217.4%
Shiina Mashiro17180Tōru15395178517.7%
Levi24390Okazaki Tomoya112301316010.0%
Archer24991Kamijō Tōma104701452110.4%
Sakurajima Mai19988Erza Scarlet12477751118.0%
Priestess16255High Elf Archer1557767819.6%
Minamoto Sakura15978Mizuno Ai1555042820.4%
Azusagawa Kaede17243Nanami Tōko15518172517.3%
Index L. Prohibitorum16397Juliet Persia14689170821.5%
Takarada Rikka16301Itsuwa1590040118.7%
Futaba Rio16447Yoroizuka Mizore1602342418.0%
Alice Zuberg17366Izawa Shizue15154221217.9%
Aoyama Nanami17953Haibara Ai13533442020.5%
Furukawa Nagisa17444Suzumiya Haruhi13756368821.2%
Tomori Nao16201Daidōji Tomoyo1530989220.4%
Kuriyama Mirai15859Nagato Yuki1513172821.7%
Togashi Yūta15827Takasu Ryūji1496786022.2%
Natsume Takashi16378Natsuki Subaru14967141120.8%
Satō Kazuma15268Edward Elric1511315523.3%
Kaneki Ken15477Uchiha Itachi1501746023.0%
Violet Evergarden17180Uraraka Ochako9445773532.8%
Zero Two14794Kohiruimaki Karen(Llenn)11412338233.8%
Misaka Mikoto16915Hatsune Miku13296361923.7%
Hakurei Reimu14776Kongō12878189830.2%
Female Division (Elimination 4)Show
CLPCVPWL
Kanna Kamui103.63953.985342E1W
Rem105.86752.931351E3W
Yūki Asuna99.66552.877324E4W
Yukinoshita Yukino99.52448.326324E2W
Chtholly Nota Seniorious99.52747.681324E2W
Shiina Mashiro94.85547.181306E4W
Nishimiya Shōko92.20047.089297E3L
Tokisaki Kurumi90.40546.557288E1L
Takanashi Rikka85.89445.6932610E1W
Tōsaka Rin96.51645.456315E1L
Tōru83.58944.8372511E4L
Shiro92.44944.477297E3W
Haibara Ai76.57844.0682214E4L
Illyasviel von Einzbern87.53343.702279E2L
Kinomoto Sakura74.88443.3952115E2L
Saber85.86542.7712610E4L
Makise Kurisu83.36542.6902511E3L
Emilia77.38342.6302214E3W
Schwi Dola75.82937.556239E1W
Izumi Sagiri85.73542.0302610E1L
Suzumiya Haruhi61.16236.7121616E4L
Aisaka Taiga73.21836.1302210E3W
Nakano Azusa74.58439.4372115E2W
Kuriyama Mirai59.24235.9551518E3L,E4W
Megumin62.53134.3601715E2W
Nagato Yuki68.04335.1881914E3L.E4L
Kōsaka Reina65.59238.0951719E2L
Furukawa Nagisa78.41837.8502313E4W
Kitashirakawa Tamako69.73537.8061917E3L
Tomori Nao70.16134.2972013E3W,E4W
Yuigahama Yui66.43637.1461719E1L
Kasumigaoka Utaha64.31232.8991814E2L
Nibutani Shinka53.90132.6011319E3L
Aoyama Nanami61.87331.7331715E4W
Sakura Chiyo57.56231.5501517E1W
Daidōji Tomoyo46.92831.4361023E3W,E4L
Male Division (Elimination 4)Show
CLPCVPWL
Hikigaya Hachiman108.00051.076360E1W
Levi103.97448.045342E4W
Tachibana Taki83.03737.184266E3W
Gilgamesh97.14941.530315E3L
Okabe Rintarō97.37240.589315E2W
Shiota Nagisa105.89240.582351E2W
Riku Dola101.40540.481333E3W
Archer96.90339.938315E4W
Ainz Ooal Gown93.38139.050297E1W
Ayanokōji Kiyotaka89.08838.691279E1L
Emiya Shirō85.94138.1902610E1W
Togashi Yūta84.08937.7052511E4W
Edogawa Conan68.58933.3231913E1W
Kamijō Tōma82.14637.3832412E4L
Natsume Takashi76.16633.045239E4W
Willem Kmetsch83.22436.2942511E3L
Li Syaoran78.39532.238248E2W
Emiya Kiritsugu81.65236.2052412E2W
Saitama77.49336.1382214E2L
Saiki Kusuo78.06636.1182214E2L
Akabane Karma71.99035.8071917E2L
Yato70.08431.7682012E2L
Todoroki Shōto86.31035.5772610E3W
Ishida Shōya76.36635.1062214E3W
Okazaki Tomoya80.68034.9632412E4L
Midoriya Izuku65.72130.9261814E3L
Takasu Ryūji63.71230.7001715E4L
Satō Kazuma64.43331.2821716E3W,E4W
Astolfo72.22834.1112016E1L
Natsuki Subaru66.97733.8921719E4L
Eren Yeager63.35733.7481620E1L
Edward Elric57.46330.6011419E3W.E4L
Kaneki Ken61.84430.5051617E3L,E4W
Uchiha Itachi47.80029.679924E3L,E4L
Kyon71.23732.3391917E3L
Orihara Izaya44.33326.721923E1L
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Re: 2018 Elimination stage general discussions

Post by Ennadai » Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:30 pm

expected VF% (Elimination 5)Show
Name (W-L,CVP)FEV%
STDV%
Kanna Kamui v. Takanashi Rikka50.25% - 49.75%
(34-2,53.985) (26-10,45.693)3.75%
Yukinoshita Yukino v. Chtholly Nota Seniorious50.80% - 49.20%
(32-4,48.326) (32-4,47.681)1.87%
Nishimiya Shōko v. Sakura Chiyo52.63% - 47.37%
(29-7,47.089) (15-17,31.550)2.42%
Tōsaka Rin v. Megumin55.27% - 44.73%
(31-5,45.456) (17-15,34.360)2.88%
Tōru v. Aoyama Nanami54.38% - 45.62%
(25-11,44.837) (17-15,31.733)3.13%
Illyasviel von Einzbern v. Schwi Dola49.28% - 50.72%
(27-9,43.702) (23-9,37.556)2.05%
Kinomoto Sakura v. Aisaka Taiga52.75% - 47.25%
(21-15,43.395) (22-10,36.130)1.76%
Saber v. Furukawa Nagisa53.64% - 46.36%
(26-10,42.771) (23-13,37.850)2.18%
Makise Kurisu v. Izumi Sagiri45.89% - 54.11%
(25-11,42.690) (26-10,42.030)2.51%
Emilia v. Nakano Azusa52.58% - 47.42%
(22-14,42.630) (21-15,39.437)3.10%
Hikigaya Hachiman v. Emiya Shirō61.89% - 38.11%
(36-0,51.076) (26-10,38.190)3.01%
Shiota Nagisa v. Okabe Rintarō48.54% - 51.46%
(35-1,40.582) (31-5,40.589)2.40%
Gilgamesh v. Li Syaoran51.17% - 48.83%
(31-5,41.530) (24-8,32.238)2.41%
Ainz Ooal Gown v. Natsume Takashi52.28% - 47.72%
(29-7,39.050) (23-9,33.045)1.78%
Ayanokōji Kiyotaka v. Astolfo54.08% - 45.92%
(27-9,38.691) (20-16,34.111)1.48%
Togashi Yūta v. Edogawa Conan51.52% - 48.48%
(25-11,37.705) (19-13,33.323)0.73%
Kamijō Tōma v. Okazaki Tomoya52.82% - 47.18%
(24-12,37.383) (24-12,34.963)1.89%
Tachibana Taki v. Saiki Kusuo50.57% - 49.43%
(26-6,37.184) (22-14,36.118)1.77%
Willem Kmetsch v. Ishida Shōya51.68% - 48.32%
(25-11,36.294) (22-14,35.106)1.79%
Emiya Kiritsugu v. Saitama50.73% - 49.27%
(24-12,36.205) (22-14,36.138)2.25%
Sakurajima Mai v. Priestess
(3-0,3.970) (3-0,3.101)
Minamoto Sakura v. Azusagawa Kaede
(3-0,3.166) (3-0,3.222)
Index L. Prohibitorum v. Takarada Rikka
(3-0,3.167) (3-0,3.200)
Futaba Rio v. Alice Zuberg
(3-0,3.118) (3-0,3.379)
Last meetings (Elimination 5)Show
2009 Amethyst 7Kinomoto Sakura13561406Aisaka Taiga
2013 Amethyst 5Saber47843444Furukawa Nagisa
2012 Ruby 4Saber41862761Furukawa Nagisa
2011 Ruby 2Saber31492539Furukawa Nagisa
2010 Sapphire 6Saber24841817Furukawa Nagisa
2009 Sapphire 4Saber16951230Furukawa Nagisa
2008 Topaz 5Saber220298Furukawa Nagisa
2017 Topaz 10Emilia1263843Nakano Azusa
2018 Diamond 4Hikigaya Hachiman1733110882Emiya Shirō
2015 Emerald 2Hikigaya Hachiman31041728Emiya Shirō
2017 Diamond 4Shiota Nagisa13471337Okabe Rintarō
2017 Emerald 6Togashi Yūta13711207Edogawa Conan
2017 Emerald 1Kamijō Tōma918886Okazaki Tomoya
2015 Emerald 6Kamijō Tōma22912128Okazaki Tomoya
2018 Emerald 1Emiya Kiritsugu89109938Saitama
2017 Elimination 7Emiya Kiritsugu41054238Saitama
2017 Ruby 6Emiya Kiritsugu19372048Saitama
2016 Elimination 2Emiya Kiritsugu22191765Saitama
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Ennadai
Taiyaki
Taiyaki
Posts: 235
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Re: 2018 Elimination stage general discussions

Post by Ennadai » Thu Jan 31, 2019 1:05 am

Result (Elimination 5)Show
NameVF%
(FEV%)
Z-scorePV(0.1)PV(0.2)PV(0.5)
Kanna Kamui51.61%
(50.25%)
0.4151.437
(-0.426)
161.534
(+0.067)
170.482
(+9.509)
Takanashi Rikka48.39%
(49.75%)
-0.4134.559
(+0.426)
151.976
(-0.067)
178.267
(-9.509)
Yukinoshita Yukino52.86%
(50.80%)
1.1140.483
(+0.806)
152.730
(+1.555)
164.060
(+1.113)
Chtholly Nota Seniorious47.14%
(49.20%)
-1.1139.004
(-0.806)
147.962
(-1.555)
148.407
(-1.113)
Nishimiya Shōko47.21%
(52.63%)
-2.2125.113
(-1.778)
126.482
(-2.660)
127.833
(-4.136)
Sakura Chiyo52.79%
(47.37%)
2.2106.012
(+1.778)
118.906
(+2.660)
134.196
(+4.136)
Tōsaka Rin50.22%
(55.27%)
-1.8133.345
(-1.296)
145.538
(-3.066)
152.226
(-5.908)
Megumin49.78%
(44.73%)
1.8108.953
(+1.296)
119.838
(+3.066)
139.123
(+5.908)
Tōru45.91%
(54.38%)
-2.7123.435
(-1.899)
134.137
(-4.155)
143.818
(-13.040)
Aoyama Nanami54.09%
(45.62%)
2.7108.230
(+1.899)
121.867
(+4.155)
141.071
(+13.040)
Illyasviel von Einzbern49.46%
(49.28%)
0.1120.734
(-0.175)
128.633
(-0.156)
132.802
(+2.174)
Schwi Dola50.54%
(50.72%)
-0.1120.157
(+0.175)
130.155
(+0.156)
140.072
(-2.174)
Kinomoto Sakura51.57%
(52.75%)
-0.7119.942
(-0.175)
129.792
(-0.981)
133.315
(-0.999)
Aisaka Taiga48.43%
(47.25%)
0.7109.587
(+0.175)
114.282
(+0.981)
123.259
(+0.999)
Saber57.03%
(53.64%)
1.6123.647
(+0.984)
134.686
(+1.812)
149.449
(+3.059)
Furukawa Nagisa42.97%
(46.36%)
-1.6108.682
(-0.984)
114.171
(-1.812)
117.948
(-3.059)
Makise Kurisu40.05%
(45.89%)
-2.3114.412
(-2.076)
117.479
(-3.477)
108.314
(-2.807)
Izumi Sagiri59.95%
(54.11%)
2.3124.617
(+2.076)
141.139
(+3.477)
155.139
(+2.807)
Emilia63.53%
(52.58%)
3.5122.264
(+2.936)
139.846
(+5.838)
167.776
(+12.667)
Nakano Azusa36.47%
(47.42%)
-3.5111.792
(-2.936)
117.051
(-5.838)
116.266
(-12.667)
Hikigaya Hachiman79.99%
(61.89%)
6.0183.685
(+5.794)
217.400
(+11.713)
261.276
(+30.685)
Emiya Shirō20.01%
(38.11%)
-6.0111.153
(-5.794)
112.968
(-11.713)
103.732
(-30.685)
Shiota Nagisa43.57%
(48.54%)
-2.1129.375
(-1.650)
135.287
(-2.838)
138.528
(-5.528)
Okabe Rintarō56.43%
(51.46%)
2.1133.453
(+1.650)
149.148
(+2.838)
166.711
(+5.528)
Gilgamesh48.45%
(51.17%)
-1.1130.593
(-1.199)
136.778
(-1.938)
133.417
(+0.429)
Li Syaoran51.55%
(48.83%)
1.1116.696
(+1.199)
129.548
(+1.938)
142.855
(-0.429)
Ainz Ooal Gown44.86%
(52.28%)
-4.2120.104
(-1.702)
125.672
(-3.787)
127.262
(-9.561)
Natsume Takashi55.14%
(47.72%)
4.2113.473
(+1.702)
120.702
(+3.787)
135.114
(+9.561)
Ayanokōji Kiyotaka48.85%
(54.08%)
-3.5119.074
(-0.914)
124.983
(-2.065)
126.943
(-8.875)
Astolfo51.15%
(45.92%)
3.5107.834
(+0.914)
113.948
(+2.065)
114.739
(+8.875)
Togashi Yūta52.14%
(51.52%)
0.9118.605
(+0.196)
124.070
(+0.290)
125.068
(+0.505)
Edogawa Conan47.86%
(48.48%)
-0.9112.241
(-0.196)
116.102
(-0.290)
115.764
(-0.505)
Kamijō Tōma50.81%
(52.82%)
-1.1114.419
(-0.080)
117.471
(-0.836)
108.489
(-3.925)
Okazaki Tomoya49.19%
(47.18%)
1.1109.362
(+0.080)
107.146
(+0.836)
97.305
(+3.925)
Tachibana Taki51.61%
(50.57%)
0.6122.464
(-0.009)
126.415
(+0.545)
133.525
(+2.719)
Saiki Kusuo48.39%
(49.43%)
-0.6114.652
(+0.009)
122.742
(-0.545)
130.450
(-2.719)
Willem Kmetsch50.55%
(51.68%)
-0.6114.279
(-0.042)
124.010
(-0.666)
129.769
(-2.299)
Ishida Shōya49.45%
(48.32%)
0.6111.032
(+0.042)
116.022
(+0.666)
122.379
(+2.299)
Emiya Kiritsugu49.52%
(50.73%)
-0.5111.487
(-0.172)
118.285
(-0.553)
129.254
(-2.151)
Saitama50.48%
(49.27%)
0.5110.531
(+0.172)
116.130
(+0.553)
127.433
(+2.151)
Match Card (Elimination 5)Show
ContestantVFContestantVFVDAbstention
Kanna Kamui18043Takanashi Rikka1691711269.8%
Yukinoshita Yukino19973Chtholly Nota Seniorious1781121622.5%
Hikigaya Hachiman27047Emiya Shirō67672028012.7%
Okabe Rintarō18054Shiota Nagisa13941411317.4%
Sakurajima Mai21612Priestess12069954313.1%
Azusagawa Kaede16272Minamoto Sakura1540087218.2%
Takarada Rikka16145Index L. Prohibitorum13581256423.3%
Alice Zuberg16537Futaba Rio10985555229.0%
Sakura Chiyo16796Nishimiya Shōko15019177717.9%
Tōsaka Rin16145Megumin1600314217.0%
Aoyama Nanami16658Tōru14136252220.5%
Schwi Dola13735Illyasviel von Einzbern1344429129.8%
Kinomoto Sakura16204Aisaka Taiga1522098418.9%
Saber18049Furukawa Nagisa13597445218.3%
Izumi Sagiri20909Makise Kurisu13967694210.0%
Emilia22458Nakano Azusa1289495648.7%
Li Syaoran16415Gilgamesh1542698917.8%
Natsume Takashi16986Ainz Ooal Gown13819316720.5%
Astolfo13550Ayanokōji Kiyotaka1294260831.6%
Togashi Yūta16547Edogawa Conan15188135918.1%
Kamijō Tōma16087Okazaki Tomoya1557451318.3%
Tachibana Taki16658Saiki Kusuo15617104116.7%
Willem Kmetsch16204Ishida Shōya1584935517.3%
Saitama16029Emiya Kiritsugu1572230718.0%
Female Division (Elimination 5)Show
CLPCVPWL
Kanna Kamui106.63955.117352E1W,E5W
Rem105.86752.931351E3W
Yūki Asuna99.66552.877324E4W
Yukinoshita Yukino102.52449.579334E2W,E5W
Chtholly Nota Seniorious100.41948.799325E2W,E5L
Nishimiya Shōko93.09448.032298E3L,E5L
Shiina Mashiro94.85547.181306E4W
Takanashi Rikka86.83246.7552611E1W,E5L
Tōsaka Rin99.51646.469325E1L,E5W
Tōru84.43745.7242512E4L,E5L
Illyasviel von Einzbern88.51244.5462710E2L,E5L
Shiro92.44944.477297E3W
Kinomoto Sakura77.88444.4122215E2L,E5W
Emilia80.38344.0392314E3W,E5W
Saber88.86543.9032710E4L,E5W
Makise Kurisu84.03343.5662512E3L,E5L
Izumi Sagiri88.73543.3422710E1L,E5W
Nakano Azusa75.15840.2462116E2W,E5L
Furukawa Nagisa79.17238.7032314E4W,E5L
Schwi Dola78.82938.418249E1W,E5W
Aisaka Taiga74.15737.0852211E3W,E5L
Megumin63.52235.3641716E2W,E5L
Aoyama Nanami64.87332.7791815E4W,E5W
Sakura Chiyo60.56232.6041617E1W,E5W
Male Division (Elimination 5)Show
CLPCVPWL
Hikigaya Hachiman111.00052.773370E1W,E5W
Levi103.97448.045342E4W
Gilgamesh98.08942.498316E3L,E5L
Okabe Rintarō100.37241.722325E2W,E5W
Shiota Nagisa106.66441.457352E2W,E5L
Riku Dola101.40540.481333E3W
Archer96.90339.938315E4W
Ainz Ooal Gown94.19539.917298E1W,E5L
Ayanokōji Kiyotaka90.04339.5032710E1L,E5L
Togashi Yūta87.08938.7432611E4W,E5W
Emiya Shirō86.19138.6152611E1W,E5L
Kamijō Tōma85.14638.3932512E4L,E5W
Tachibana Taki86.03738.229276E3W,E5W
Willem Kmetsch86.22437.3112611E3L,E5W
Emiya Kiritsugu82.63337.1922413E2W,E5L
Saitama80.49337.1442314E2L,E5W
Saiki Kusuo79.00437.0982215E2L,E5L
Ishida Shōya77.34436.1002215E3W,E5L
Okazaki Tomoya81.64835.9402413E4L,E5L
Todoroki Shōto86.31035.5772610E3W
Astolfo75.22834.9612116E1L,E5W
Edogawa Conan69.50734.2761914E1W,E5L
Natsume Takashi79.16634.111249E4W,E5W
Li Syaoran81.39533.268258E2W,E5W
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Ennadai
Taiyaki
Taiyaki
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Re: 2018 Elimination stage general discussions

Post by Ennadai » Fri Feb 01, 2019 3:40 pm

expected VF% (Elimination 6)Show
Name (W-L,CVP)FEV%
STDV%
Rem v. Shiro57.82% - 42.18%
(35-1,52.931) (29-7,44.477)3.90%
Yūki Asuna v. Shiina Mashiro55.48% - 44.52%
(32-4,52.877) (30-6,47.181)3.76%
Tōsaka Rin v. Aoyama Nanami53.83% - 46.17%
(32-5,46.469) (18-15,32.779)3.20%
Kinomoto Sakura v. Sakura Chiyo51.70% - 48.30%
(22-15,44.412) (16-17,32.604)2.81%
Emilia v. Izumi Sagiri50.41% - 49.59%
(23-14,44.039) (27-10,43.342)4.16%
Saber v. Schwi Dola51.06% - 48.94%
(27-10,43.903) (24-9,38.418)2.64%
Nishimiya Shōko v. Aisaka Taiga52.25% - 47.75%
(29-8,48.032) (22-11,37.085)1.31%
Tōru v. Megumin52.25% - 47.75%
(25-12,45.724) (17-16,35.364)3.13%
Illyasviel von Einzbern v. Furukawa Nagisa52.85% - 47.15%
(27-10,44.546) (23-14,38.703)1.37%
Makise Kurisu v. Nakano Azusa49.63% - 50.37%
(25-12,43.566) (21-16,40.246)1.05%
Todoroki Shōto v. Riku Dola48.98% - 51.02%
(26-10,35.577) (33-3,40.481)3.07%
Levi v. Archer55.42% - 44.58%
(34-2,48.045) (31-5,39.938)2.68%
Togashi Yūta v. Li Syaoran48.67% - 51.33%
(26-11,38.743) (25-8,33.268)2.27%
Kamijō Tōma v. Saitama49.04% - 50.96%
(25-12,38.393) (23-14,37.144)1.79%
Tachibana Taki v. Natsume Takashi50.92% - 49.08%
(27-6,38.229) (24-9,34.111)2.13%
Willem Kmetsch v. Astolfo52.21% - 47.79%
(26-11,37.311) (21-16,34.961)1.57%
Gilgamesh v. Okazaki Tomoya56.11% - 43.89%
(31-6,42.498) (24-13,35.940)1.42%
Ainz Ooal Gown v. Edogawa Conan52.01% - 47.99%
(29-8,39.917) (19-14,34.276)0.77%
Ayanokōji Kiyotaka v. Saiki Kusuo50.24% - 49.76%
(27-10,39.503) (22-15,37.098)1.57%
Emiya Kiritsugu v. Ishida Shōya50.65% - 49.35%
(24-13,37.192) (22-15,36.100)1.92%
Sakurajima Mai v. Azusagawa Kaede54.39% - 45.61%
(4-0,5.327) (4-0,4.243)3.05%
Takarada Rikka v. Alice Zuberg48.67% - 51.33%
(4-0,4.213) (4-0,4.416)1.87%
Akame v. Teruhashi Kokomi51.71% - 48.29%
(1-5,5.399) (1-5,4.803)3.81%
Izayoi Miku v. Senjōgahara Hitagi49.88% - 50.12%
(1-5,5.148) (1-5,4.807)4.59%
Last meetings (Elimination 6)Show
2018 Ruby 4Rem2431912636Shiro
2015 Topaz 7Yūki Asuna40153407Shiina Mashiro
2014 League QuarterfinalsYūki Asuna39904045Shiina Mashiro
2013 Division Finals 3Yūki Asuna52245943Shiina Mashiro
2013 Amethyst 7Yūki Asuna34014485Shiina Mashiro
2018 Sapphire 5Tōsaka Rin55433698Aoyama Nanami
2017 Sapphire 8Tōsaka Rin1534854Aoyama Nanami
2015 Elimination 3Tōsaka Rin22482797Aoyama Nanami
2015 Aquamarine 3Tōsaka Rin35232474Aoyama Nanami
2013 Amethyst 3Illyasviel von Einzbern34493201Furukawa Nagisa
2012 Ruby 2Illyasviel von Einzbern39863382Furukawa Nagisa
2010 Ruby 7Illyasviel von Einzbern24982743Furukawa Nagisa
2009 Diamond 5Illyasviel von Einzbern13051558Furukawa Nagisa
2018 Sapphire 3Makise Kurisu28154290Nakano Azusa
2017 Emerald 8Makise Kurisu1066837Nakano Azusa
2015 Emerald 4Makise Kurisu28483759Nakano Azusa
2014 Aquamarine 3Makise Kurisu34694326Nakano Azusa
2015 Emerald 2Levi18662644Archer
2016 Elimination 3Kamijō Tōma19122152Saitama
2016 Round16 3Kamijō Tōma17671700Saitama
2015 Aquamarine 3Gilgamesh26062548Okazaki Tomoya
2018 Topaz 10Emiya Kiritsugu37634740Ishida Shōya
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Ennadai
Taiyaki
Taiyaki
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Re: 2018 Elimination stage general discussions

Post by Ennadai » Tue Feb 05, 2019 8:30 am

Result (Elimination 6)Show
NameVF%
(FEV%)
Z-scorePV(0.1)PV(0.2)PV(0.5)
Rem71.95%
(57.82%)
3.6173.147
(+4.503)
205.053
(+9.182)
252.358
(+25.959)
Shiro28.05%
(42.18%)
-3.6123.843
(-4.503)
131.002
(-9.182)
134.480
(-25.959)
Yūki Asuna32.75%
(55.48%)
-6.0157.880
(-6.556)
174.018
(-15.621)
172.843
(-45.803)
Shiina Mashiro67.25%
(44.52%)
6.0143.996
(+6.556)
166.509
(+15.621)
215.026
(+45.803)
Tōsaka Rin48.26%
(53.83%)
-1.7131.670
(-1.675)
142.243
(-3.295)
146.892
(-5.334)
Aoyama Nanami51.74%
(46.17%)
1.7109.905
(+1.675)
125.162
(+3.295)
146.405
(+5.334)
Kinomoto Sakura55.81%
(51.70%)
1.5120.556
(+0.616)
131.590
(+1.800)
141.297
(+7.988)
Sakura Chiyo44.19%
(48.30%)
-1.5105.397
(-0.616)
117.107
(-1.800)
126.208
(-7.988)
Emilia50.41%
(50.41%)
0.0122.484
(+0.220)
140.207
(+0.361)
165.284
(-2.492)
Izumi Sagiri49.59%
(49.59%)
0.0124.397
(-0.220)
140.777
(-0.361)
157.631
(+2.492)
Saber53.21%
(51.06%)
0.8124.254
(+0.608)
135.932
(+1.246)
151.748
(+2.300)
Schwi Dola46.79%
(48.94%)
-0.8119.550
(-0.608)
128.908
(-1.246)
137.772
(-2.300)
Nishimiya Shōko46.82%
(52.25%)
-4.2123.590
(-1.523)
123.731
(-2.752)
122.697
(-5.136)
Aisaka Taiga53.18%
(47.75%)
4.2111.111
(+1.523)
117.036
(+2.752)
128.400
(+5.136)
Tōru52.09%
(52.25%)
0.0123.197
(-0.238)
133.769
(-0.367)
145.603
(+1.785)
Megumin47.91%
(47.75%)
0.0109.191
(+0.238)
120.206
(+0.367)
137.338
(-1.785)
Illyasviel von Einzbern50.51%
(52.85%)
-1.7120.249
(-0.485)
127.435
(-1.198)
129.730
(-3.072)
Furukawa Nagisa49.49%
(47.15%)
1.7109.167
(+0.485)
115.369
(+1.198)
121.020
(+3.072)
Makise Kurisu56.52%
(49.63%)
6.6115.757
(+1.344)
120.495
(+3.017)
117.627
(+9.313)
Nakano Azusa43.48%
(50.37%)
-6.6110.447
(-1.344)
114.034
(-3.017)
106.954
(-9.313)
Todoroki Shōto35.78%
(48.98%)
-4.3117.919
(-3.139)
127.610
(-7.540)
129.560
(-20.216)
Riku Dola64.22%
(51.02%)
4.3132.713
(+3.139)
144.765
(+7.540)
176.058
(+20.216)
Levi42.90%
(55.42%)
-4.7158.473
(-3.796)
169.507
(-8.473)
165.710
(-18.974)
Archer57.10%
(44.58%)
4.7131.296
(+3.796)
146.630
(+8.473)
176.351
(+18.974)
Togashi Yūta50.42%
(48.67%)
0.8118.609
(+0.004)
124.832
(+0.762)
130.081
(+5.013)
Li Syaoran49.58%
(51.33%)
-0.8116.692
(-0.004)
128.786
(-0.762)
137.842
(-5.013)
Kamijō Tōma52.23%
(49.04%)
1.8114.726
(+0.307)
118.379
(+0.908)
115.855
(+7.366)
Saitama47.77%
(50.96%)
-1.8110.224
(-0.307)
115.222
(-0.908)
120.067
(-7.366)
Tachibana Taki50.84%
(50.92%)
0.0122.213
(-0.251)
126.259
(-0.156)
135.050
(+1.525)
Natsume Takashi49.16%
(49.08%)
0.0113.724
(+0.251)
120.858
(+0.156)
133.588
(-1.525)
Willem Kmetsch50.26%
(52.21%)
-1.2114.014
(-0.266)
123.125
(-0.885)
126.323
(-3.445)
Astolfo49.74%
(47.79%)
1.2108.099
(+0.266)
114.833
(+0.885)
118.184
(+3.445)
Gilgamesh53.27%
(56.11%)
-2.0130.317
(-0.277)
135.410
(-1.368)
128.161
(-5.255)
Okazaki Tomoya46.73%
(43.89%)
2.0109.638
(+0.277)
108.514
(+1.368)
102.561
(+5.255)
Ainz Ooal Gown48.00%
(52.01%)
-5.2119.247
(-0.857)
123.750
(-1.922)
121.962
(-5.300)
Edogawa Conan52.00%
(47.99%)
5.2113.098
(+0.857)
118.024
(+1.922)
121.064
(+5.300)
Ayanokōji Kiyotaka51.17%
(50.24%)
0.6119.126
(+0.052)
125.338
(+0.355)
129.324
(+2.381)
Saiki Kusuo48.83%
(49.76%)
-0.6114.600
(-0.052)
122.387
(-0.355)
128.069
(-2.381)
Emiya Kiritsugu52.20%
(50.65%)
0.8111.953
(+0.466)
119.087
(+0.802)
130.297
(+1.043)
Ishida Shōya47.80%
(49.35%)
-0.8110.566
(-0.466)
115.220
(-0.802)
121.336
(-1.043)
Sakurajima Mai63.21%
(54.39%)
2.9113.238
(+2.364)
124.984
(+4.227)
152.967
(+7.505)
Azusagawa Kaede36.79%
(45.61%)
-2.999.580
(-2.364)
99.513
(-4.227)
100.925
(-7.505)
Takarada Rikka50.20%
(48.67%)
0.8102.838
(+0.169)
105.679
(+0.572)
114.246
(+2.866)
Alice Zuberg49.80%
(51.33%)
-0.8105.054
(-0.169)
109.399
(-0.572)
119.053
(-2.866)
Match Card (Elimination 6)Show
ContestantVFContestantVFVDAbstention
Rem31391Shiro12240191516.0%
Shiina Mashiro29140Yūki Asuna14193149476.6%
Riku Dola27864Todoroki Shōto15523123416.5%
Archer26387Levi1982365640.4%
Sakurajima Mai24552Azusagawa Kaede142931025916.3%
Takarada Rikka20406Alice Zuberg2024516112.4%
Aoyama Nanami21923Tōsaka Rin2045214718.7%
Kinomoto Sakura21923Sakura Chiyo17361456215.4%
Emilia21049Izumi Sagiri2070434510.0%
Saber21943Schwi Dola19297264611.2%
Aisaka Taiga21809Nishimiya Shōko19200260911.7%
Tōru21481Megumin19756172511.2%
Illyasviel von Einzbern20198Furukawa Nagisa1978940913.9%
Makise Kurisu22837Nakano Azusa17566527113.0%
Togashi Yūta19793Li Syaoran1946133215.4%
Kamijō Tōma20905Saitama19120178513.8%
Tachibana Taki20881Natsume Takashi2019169011.5%
Willem Kmetsch19394Astolfo1919719716.9%
Gilgamesh21494Okazaki Tomoya18855263913.1%
Edogawa Conan20684Ainz Ooal Gown19096158814.3%
Ayanokōji Kiyotaka20905Saiki Kusuo1995095512.0%
Emiya Kiritsugu21018Ishida Shōya19250176813.2%
Akame17907Teruhashi Kokomi1780010723.1%
Senjōgahara Hitagi16367Izayoi Miku1608228530.1%
Female Division (Elimination 6)Show
CLPCVPWL
Kanna Kamui106.63955.117352E1W,E5W
Rem108.86754.482361E3W,E6W
Yūki Asuna100.15253.578325E4W,E6L
Yukinoshita Yukino102.52449.579334E2W,E5W
Nishimiya Shōko93.97448.980299E3L,E5L,E6L
Chtholly Nota Seniorious100.41948.799325E2W,E5L
Shiina Mashiro97.85548.620316E4W,E6W
Tōsaka Rin100.44947.479326E1L,E5W,E6L
Tōru87.43746.7852612E4L,E5L,E6W
Takanashi Rikka86.83246.7552611E1W,E5L
Illyasviel von Einzbern91.51245.5442810E2L,E5L,E6W
Kinomoto Sakura80.88445.4952315E2L,E5W,E6W
Shiro92.83945.081298E3W,E6L
Emilia83.38345.0792414E3W,E5W,E6W
Saber91.86544.9872810E4L,E5W,E6W
Makise Kurisu87.03344.6942612E3L,E5L,E6W
Izumi Sagiri89.71844.3652711E1L,E5W,E6L
Nakano Azusa75.92741.1142117E2W,E5L,E6L
Furukawa Nagisa80.15139.6812315E4W,E5L,E6L
Schwi Dola79.70939.3712410E1W,E5W,E6L
Aisaka Taiga77.15838.1622311E3W,E5L,E6W
Megumin64.44236.3401717E2W,E5L,E6L
Aoyama Nanami67.87333.8621915E4W,E5W,E6W
Sakura Chiyo61.35433.4621618E1W,E5W,E6L
Male Division (Elimination 6)Show
CLPCVPWL
Hikigaya Hachiman111.00052.773370E1W,E5W
Levi104.72649.024343E4W,E6L
Gilgamesh101.08943.560326E3L,E5L,E6W
Riku Dola104.40541.858343E3W,E6W
Okabe Rintarō100.37241.722325E2W,E5W
Shiota Nagisa106.66441.457352E2W,E5L
Archer99.90341.241325E4W,E6W
Ainz Ooal Gown95.11840.860299E1W,E5L,E6L
Ayanokōji Kiyotaka93.04340.5362810E1L,E5L,E6W
Togashi Yūta90.08939.7212711E4W,E5W,E6W
Kamijō Tōma88.14639.4252612E4L,E5W,E6W
Tachibana Taki89.03739.261286E3W,E5W,E6W
Emiya Shirō86.19138.6152611E1W,E5L
Willem Kmetsch89.22438.2692711E3L,E5W,E6W
Emiya Kiritsugu85.63338.2302513E2W,E5L,E6W
Saitama81.40838.0882315E2L,E5W,E6L
Saiki Kusuo79.95838.0842216E2L,E5L,E6L
Ishida Shōya78.26037.0512216E3W,E5L,E6L
Okazaki Tomoya82.52636.8712414E4L,E5L,E6L
Todoroki Shōto86.86736.3442611E3W,E6L
Astolfo76.21835.9092117E1L,E5W,E6L
Edogawa Conan72.50735.2972014E1W,E5L,E6W
Natsume Takashi80.13335.1082410E4W,E5W,E6L
Li Syaoran82.37934.229259E2W,E5W,E6L
Last edited by Ennadai on Fri Feb 08, 2019 11:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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