2018 Elimination stage general discussions

Single-Elimination Tournament and future ISML contests
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2018 Elimination stage general discussions

Post by Chibasa » Mon Dec 31, 2018 5:00 am

This thread is for discussing upcoming matches. There isn't strict limit on what can be posted as long as it is somewhat related to upcoming and potential matches in the future, except for very negative comments/posts about almost anything. Also please refrain from posting too much support materials for a character. A little bit of support post can be tolerated, but any post, that for some reason is deemed to be, or have become, too excessive may be deleted without warning.

Who will win the Tiara, Scepter, and Yearly seasonal crown? Who will get sniped? Who are the dark horses?

Power ChartShow
Favorites 1st Rem:
Power: 92 CVP: 51.174 DVP: 5.633 W/L: 34-1
Image
Last Year Status: Quarterfinalist, 2nd in Power Chart

Analysis: Rem survived this chaotic year with only one defeat (#NagatoBestSniper) and d-e-s-t-r-o-y-e-d everyone in Aquamarine Necklace almost claiming no one can compete with her right off the bat. But this year seen the emergence of a new rival... And an old one is still lurking around. So nothing done yet.

Opposition: Rem may have the easiest path towards semifinals, avoiding the big names.

2nd Yūki Asuna:
Power: 91.6 CVP: 51.722 DVP: 6.237 W/L: 31-4
Image
Last Year Status: Semifinalist, 1st in Power Chart

Analysis: Asuna have most regular results, always on top of (sai)moe. She got her Sapphire Necklace without any problem, impressive results in latest period and the only reason why she isn't 1st of this ranking is that she have been successfully defeated 4 times. But overall she is as strong as her two main rivals: Rem and Kanna.

Opposition: Facing a weakened Saber for starter, Asuna should have not that much problems reaching quarterfinals. They faced each other quite lot of time recently and have quite some similarities so we wait to see em on battlefield again.

3rd Kamui Kanna:
Power: 91.4 CVP: 52.717 DVP: 6.092 W/L: 33-2
Image
Last Year Status: Winter Winner Chicken Dinner

Analysis: Kanna have best CVP and did a strong run during all year, beating last year records, the only downside of her path to PostSeason is in Necklace Round, but she successfully secured Diamond one in the end. However she struggled to got it and Kurisu almost stole it... Which is why she isn't 1st of this ranking.

Opposition: Facing Sagiri, Kanna have no fear of Round of 16, however, her quarterfinal match should be extremely hard. On bright side, she'll avoid both Rem and Asuna before finale.

Rivals
4th Tohsaka Rin:
Power: 77.4 CVP: 44.634 DVP: 6.25 W/L: 31-4
Image
Last Year Status: Quarterfinalist, 10th in Power Chart

Analysis: Rin had a pretty decent year until ruby, then she unleashed her full power and grabbed herself a Ruby Necklace and outperformed everyone in Diamond Period. She seems more than ready for PostSeason !

Opposition: Rin however have some problems to consider with a strong opposition since start. Rikka will not be an easy match.

 
5th Nota Seniorious Chtholly:
Power: 75 CVP: 46.484 DVP: 5.186 W/L: 31-4
Image
Last Year Status: Spring Winner, Seasonal Overall Winner

Analysis: Chtolly delivered a strong performance, regular results, an easily earned Amethyst Necklace. But if she seemed able to win against everyone (beating Kanna last day with decent margin), she also seemed vulnerable with Ai and Kurisu not far from her and most importantly a defeat towards Shiro. Her opponents clearly identified her as a threat too big to be ignored.

Opposition: Chtolly is facing Illya, which is kinda known for her sniper abilities and having strong performances in PostSeason. Definitely not an easy start, but Chtolly isn't there to play for the chocolate medal anyway, she seems ready for a great performance and seems to be favorite for Tiara in lot of minds.
 
6th Yukinoshita Yukino:
Power: 72.6 CVP: 47.072 DVP: 5.57 W/L: 31-4
Image
Last Year Status: Eliminated in Round of 16, 7th in Power Chart

Analysis: Yukino missed necklaces this year, but this time she slowly climbed up rankings and showed quite impressive results those last periods. She's definitely a threat for everyone.

Opposition: Yukino faces an opponent coming back from a far away past: Kinomoto Sakura. But backed up by a fresh new season this year, she could show that she did not lost anything since her first AST title (the first Saimoe title of all time). But in all honesty, I believe Yukino will not repeat her mistake from last year and will advance in quarterfinals.
 
7th Shiina Mashiro:
Power: 69.6 CVP: 46.084 DVP: 5.38 W/L: 29-6
Image
Last Year Status: Semifinalist, 2nd in Power Chart

Analysis: Mashiro got herself her favorite necklace with ease at start of the year. But after this Topaz Necklace she slowly faded away and did not perform as good as usual those last periods. However the Sleeping Beauty may certainly wake up when it matters and should be feared by anyone on her path.

Opposition: After a good start, Tohru also faded away near the end, but even more, almost being eliminated in Ruby. Mashiron should have the upper hand here.
 
Underdogs
8th Nishimiya Shouko:
Power: 56.2 CVP: 46.144 DVP: 5.304 W/L: 29-6
Image
Last Year Status: Spring Finalist

Analysis: Shouko was never really impressive this year, she was regularly near top for VF, and built up a strong CVP but did not succeed in any necklaces and even had troubles in this Regular Season end. She'll probably need to step-up to make her fans believe in her chances.

Opposition: Shiro will be a good test, this is a pretty even match.
 
9th Takanashi Rikka:
Power: 47.2 CVP: 44.301 DVP: 5.021 W/L: 25-10
Image
Last Year Status: Eliminated in Round of 16, 15th in Power Chart

Analysis: After some troubles in Emerald Period, Rikka bounced back and delivered a solid performance, with a big performance in Diamond Necklace. She have a shot for quarterfinals, but it may be difficult to go further without a miracle.

Opposition: Tohsaka-san seems extremely powerful on this end of year. Kinda unlucky for Rikka, but she'll have to deal with it... And she can do it. It's time for her to grow up and show what she can do without Yuuta !

10th Makise Kurisu:
Power: 45.6 CVP: 42.166 DVP: 5.348 W/L: 25-10
Image
Last Year Status: Eliminated in Round of 16, 14th in Power Chart

Analysis: After a delicate Ruby Period, Kurisu almost got herself Diamond Necklace again. Almost.

Opposition: Facing Rem again in Round of 16, Kurisu isn't the favorite here, but maybe her trong performance during last necklace can bring a tiny hope for her fans.
 
11th Tohru:
Power: 44.4 CVP: 43.855 DVP: 5.283 W/L: 25-10
Image
Last Year Status: Winter Finalist

Analysis: Tohru made a good start but totally wasted her chances in the end. After a catastrophic Ruby Period she ends up not very well seeded and seems in a downfall.

Opposition: Mashiro always a big fish. Tohru will need to breathe a lot of fire there to survive !
 
12th Shiro:
Power: 43.4 CVP: 43.188 DVP: 5.345 W/L: 28-7
Image
Last Year Status: Eliminated in Round of 16, 9th in Power Chart

Analysis: Shiro showed bit weaker performance than last year and even had to go into Diamond WildCard to reach top 16, but she's a girl full of surprises and I feel like she can reach Quarterfinals this year.

Opposition: Shouko is actually an opponent Shiro may be able to take down. Quite an opportunity to shine.
 
13th Izumi Sagiri:
Power: 41.8 CVP: 40.995 DVP: 5.085 W/L: 26-9
Image
Last Year Status: 3rd in Spring Seasonal

Analysis: For someone who only been seasonal semifinalist last year, Sagiri found her way to the top 16 with a regular season, never really shining but rarely in danger before Diamond Period. Not bad.

Opposition: Kanna is definitely a strong opponent ! But being eaten by a dragon loli wouldn't be that bad right? I'm sure Sagiri fans have better plans however !
 
14th Illyasviel Von Eiznbern:
Power: 40.6 CVP: 42.607 DVP: 5.069 W/L: 27-8
Image
Last Year Status: Quarterfinalist, 12th in Power Chart

Analysis: Having a rough time in Diamond Period, Illya is a bit worrying, especially since she never performed in any necklace round. Her level from 2016 is yet to be recovered.

Opposition: Chtolly is pretty strong, but Illya took down Kurumi last year at this stage, so why not believe in a magical girl? Especially a loli !
 
15th Saber:
Power: 39.2 CVP: 41.838 DVP: 4.575 W/L: 26-9
Image
Last Year Status: Eliminated in Diamond (1-4)

Analysis: Starting to lose early this year, Saber never been really convincing. But Fate can strikes at every second, she can find back her power...

Opposition: ...And will need it, facing Asuna (again), Saber have a huge duel incoming and will probably need to use Excalibur from the start !
 
16th Kinomoto Sakura:
Power: 29.8 CVP: 42.49 DVP: 5.3 W/L: 21-14
Image
Last Year Status: Eliminated in Topaz (0-5)

Analysis: Sakura never even reached a necklace round this year.In a way reaching top 16 is already an achievement for Sakura. It will be hard from now on.

Opposition: Facing Yukino is hard, and it's probably most one-sided match of whole PostSeason.
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Re: 2018 Elimination stage general discussions

Post by Ennadai » Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:00 am

expected VF% (Elimination 1)Show
Name (W-L,CVP)FEV%STDV%
Kanna Kamui v. Izumi Sagiri52.27% - 47.73%
(33-2,52.717) (26-9,40.995)3.25%
Tōsaka Rin v. Takanashi Rikka52.77% - 47.23%
(31-4,44.634) (25-10,44.301)3.89%
Tokisaki Kurumi v. Sakura Chiyo52.85% - 47.15%
(28-7,45.475) (14-17,30.450)2.57%
Schwi Dola v. Yuigahama Yui51.88% - 48.12%
(22-9,36.638) (17-18,36.277)2.68%
Hikigaya Hachiman v. Astolfo62.97% - 37.03%
(35-0,49.452) (20-15,33.490)2.39%
Ayanokōji Kiyotaka v. Emiya Shirō50.85% - 49.15%
(27-8,37.652) (25-10,37.128)2.01%
Ainz Ooal Gown v. Orihara Izaya54.53% - 45.47%
(28-7,38.040) (9-22,25.805)2.83%
Eren Yeager v. Edogawa Conan46.83% - 53.17%
(16-19,32.761) (18-13,32.292)0.78%
Hinatsuru Ai v. Hanasaka Yui
(3-1,4.653) (3-1,3.895)
Aihara Mei v. μ
(3-1,3.831) (2-2,3.775)
Sora Ginko v. Yukimura Aoi
(3-1,4.899) (3-1,3.744)
Yashajin Ai v. Teresa Wagner
(3-1,4.701) (3-1,3.772)
Last meetings (Elimination 1)Show
2015 Topaz 3Tōsaka Rin38143745Takanashi Rikka
2018 Sapphire 2Tokisaki Kurumi29023865Sakura Chiyo
2015 Ruby 7Tokisaki Kurumi31143929Sakura Chiyo
2018 Sapphire 5Schwi Dola51553903Yuigahama Yui
2018 Diamond 1Hikigaya Hachiman1625510098Astolfo
2015 Topaz 3Image
2015 Ruby 7Image
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Re: 2018 Elimination stage general discussions

Post by liuxinyu970226 » Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:23 pm

Why Mikoto vs. Pikachu? I don't see any reason to allow Hall of Famers to participate such spin-off exhibition matches.
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Re: 2018 Elimination stage general discussions

Post by Chibasa » Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:35 pm

Why Mikoto vs. Pikachu? I don't see any reason to allow Hall of Famers to participate such spin-off exhibition matches.
Why would they need a specific reason? The idea of seeing exhib tournaments winners facing each other was even encouraged by community so I don't see where the problem is.
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Re: 2018 Elimination stage general discussions

Post by Ennadai » Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:00 pm

expected VF% (Elimination 2)Show
Name (W-L,CVP)FEV%STDV%
Yukinoshita Yukino v. Kinomoto Sakura52.45% - 47.55%
(31-4,47.072) (21-14,42.490)2.16%
Chtholly Nota Seniorious v. Illyasviel von Einzbern54.13% - 45.87%
(31-4,46.484) (27-8,42.607)1.21%
Nakano Azusa v. Kasumigaoka Utaha49.95% - 50.05%
(20-15,38.378) (18-13,31.925)2.84%
Kōsaka Reina v. Megumin48.45% - 51.55%
(17-18,37.102) (16-15,33.301)2.76%
Shiota Nagisa v. Saitama55.69% - 44.31%
(34-1,39.582) (22-13,35.144)1.71%
Okabe Rintarō v. Saiki Kusuo54.89% - 45.11%
(30-5,39.544) (22-13,35.190)2.76%
Emiya Kiritsugu v. Yato49.70% - 50.30%
(23-12,35.197) (20-11,30.780)2.47%
Akabane Karma v. Li Syaoran46.94% - 53.06%
(19-16,34.816) (23-8,31.242)3.07%
Tsuyuzaki Mahiru v. Special Week
(3-3,5.913) (5-1,5.078)
Misaka Mikoto v. Pikachu
(2-0,3.647) (3-0,5.017)
Hatsune Miku v. YoRHa No.2 Type B
(1-0,1.065) (3-0,3.243)
Atago v. WA2000
(0-0,0.000) (0-0,0.000)
Last meetings (Elimination 2)Show
2018 Amethyst 8Yukinoshita Yukino55213770Kinomoto Sakura
2018 Amethyst 8Chtholly Nota Seniorious81192768Illyasviel von Einzbern
2018 Ruby 4Nakano Azusa1617018054Kasumigaoka Utaha
2016 Topaz 3Nakano Azusa14731281Kasumigaoka Utaha
2018 Diamond 3Shiota Nagisa152579495Saitama
2018 Ruby 5Emiya Kiritsugu1571115197Yato
2015 Aquamarine 1Emiya Kiritsugu27002389Yato
2016 Topaz 3Image
2015 Aquamarine 1Image
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Re: 2018 Elimination stage general discussions

Post by liuxinyu970226 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:34 am

Chibasa wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:35 pm
Why would they need a specific reason? The idea of seeing exhib tournaments winners facing each other was even encouraged by community so I don't see where the problem is.
Thx, I now also agree that this match won't violate III.B.
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Re: 2018 Elimination stage general discussions

Post by Hirasawa Yui » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:40 am

So there will be several matches between the winners of all the tournaments in ISML 2018 right? Just like the final of the seasonal winners?
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Re: 2018 Elimination stage general discussions

Post by Hirasawa Yui » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:43 am

And I wonder about the schedule of the matches between the seasonal losers.
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Re: 2018 Elimination stage general discussions

Post by Chibasa » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:14 am

Hirasawa Yui wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:43 am
And I wonder about the schedule of the matches between the seasonal losers.
Quarterfinalist (losers) meet quarterfinalist (losers) from other season. Semifinalist (losers) meet semifinalist (losers) from other season and same goes for Finalist.

So most of em will just have one exhibition match.
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Re: 2018 Elimination stage general discussions

Post by Ennadai » Tue Jan 15, 2019 12:00 pm

Result (Elimination 1)Show
NameVF%
(FEV%)
Z-scorePV(0.1)PV(0.2)PV(0.5)
Kanna Kamui55.03%
(52.27%)
0.8151.864
(-0.096)
161.468
(+0.785)
160.975
(+11.435)
Izumi Sagiri44.97%
(47.73%)
-0.8122.540
(+0.096)
137.661
(-0.785)
152.330
(-11.435)
Tōsaka Rin37.12%
(52.77%)
-4.0134.641
(-3.875)
148.604
(-9.252)
158.133
(-29.737)
Takanashi Rikka62.88%
(47.23%)
4.0134.134
(+3.875)
152.044
(+9.252)
187.778
(+29.737)
Tokisaki Kurumi49.59%
(52.85%)
-1.3125.707
(-1.299)
130.426
(-2.028)
128.035
(-0.057)
Sakura Chiyo50.41%
(47.15%)
1.3104.234
(+1.299)
116.246
(+2.028)
130.059
(+0.057)
Schwi Dola51.38%
(51.88%)
-0.2119.982
(-0.155)
129.998
(-0.061)
142.246
(-0.972)
Yuigahama Yui48.62%
(48.12%)
0.2110.800
(+0.155)
122.515
(+0.061)
132.687
(+0.972)
Hikigaya Hachiman72.33%
(62.97%)
3.9177.890
(+3.125)
205.686
(+6.007)
230.588
(+12.784)
Astolfo27.67%
(37.03%)
-3.9106.921
(-3.125)
111.885
(-6.007)
105.867
(-12.784)
Ayanokōji Kiyotaka49.45%
(50.85%)
-0.7119.987
(-0.313)
127.048
(-0.642)
135.819
(-2.185)
Emiya Shirō50.55%
(49.15%)
0.7116.947
(+0.313)
124.681
(+0.642)
134.416
(+2.185)
Ainz Ooal Gown52.45%
(54.53%)
-0.7121.806
(-0.744)
129.460
(-1.224)
136.823
(-0.415)
Orihara Izaya47.55%
(45.47%)
0.797.672
(+0.744)
108.041
(+1.224)
123.260
(+0.415)
Eren Yeager48.91%
(46.83%)
2.7100.783
(+0.390)
105.646
(+0.741)
105.326
(+3.066)
Edogawa Conan51.09%
(53.17%)
-2.7112.436
(-0.390)
116.392
(-0.741)
116.269
(-3.066)
Match Card (Elimination 1)Show
ContestantVFContestantVFVDAbstention
Kanna Kamui20264Izumi Sagiri1656037040.0%
Takanashi Rikka22252Tōsaka Rin1313591173.9%
Hikigaya Hachiman25960Astolfo9929160312.5%
Emiya Shirō16983Ayanokōji Kiyotaka166143698.8%
Minamoto Momo15176Beelzebub1464253419.0%
Komai Hasuki15577Nagami Suzuka1535821916.0%
High Elf Archer18153Tatejima Kotetsu12927522615.6%
Erza Scarlet15759Takanashi Misha1539636315.4%
Itsuwa17020Hanazawa Yūna15054196612.9%
Kazano Asagi15492Tsuchimiya Asuka15486615.9%
Jeanne d’Arc16245Shinjō Akane1541782814.0%
Izawa Shizue16144Trish Una1529485014.6%
Sophie Twilight15700Ayasato Mayoi (Maya Fey)1543326715.5%
Danchō Arthur15876Nanami Tōko1513973715.8%
Kasaki Nozomi15294Hongō Tae12814248023.7%
Mizuno Ai19168Merc12430673814.2%
Sakura Chiyo17587Tokisaki Kurumi172982895.3%
Schwi Dola14674Yuigahama Yui1388379122.5%
Ainz Ooal Gown16144Orihara Izaya14637150716.4%
Edogawa Conan16470Eren Yeager1577070012.4%
Hanasaka Yui16395Hinatsuru Ai1605334211.9%
μ15460Aihara Mei1512833216.9%
Sora Ginko18372Yukimura Aoi14156421611.7%
Yashajin Ai16315Teresa Wagner162724311.5%
Female DivisionShow
E1CLPCVPWL
Kanna Kamui103.63953.985342E1W
Yūki Asuna96.66551.722314Diamond+
Rem102.86751.174341Diamond+
Yukinoshita Yukino96.52447.072314Diamond+
Tokisaki Kurumi90.40546.557288E1L
Chtholly Nota Seniorious96.52746.484314Diamond+
Nishimiya Shōko91.46646.144296Diamond+
Shiina Mashiro91.85546.084296Diamond+
Takanashi Rikka85.89445.6932610E1W
Tōsaka Rin96.51645.456315E1L
Tōru82.69243.8552510Diamond+
Haibara Ai75.82443.2052213Diamond
Shiro89.44943.188287Diamond+
Illyasviel von Einzbern86.61842.607278Diamond+
Kinomoto Sakura74.16342.4902114Diamond+
Makise Kurisu83.06742.1662510Diamond+
Izumi Sagiri85.73542.0302610E1L
Saber85.05841.838269Diamond+
Emilia74.38341.3932114Diamond
Nakano Azusa71.58438.3782015Diamond
Schwi Dola75.82937.556239E1W
Yuigahama Yui66.43637.1461719E1L
Kōsaka Reina64.65537.1021718Diamond
Kitashirakawa Tamako68.85836.8341916Diamond
Furukawa Nagisa75.41836.7372213Diamond
Suzumiya Haruhi60.37335.8341615Ruby
Aisaka Taiga70.21835.0222110Ruby
Kuriyama Mirai55.26233.9311417Ruby
Megumin59.53133.3011615Ruby
Nagato Yuki66.09833.2011912Ruby
Tomori Nao64.16132.2321813Ruby
Kasumigaoka Utaha63.39231.9251813Ruby
Nibutani Shinka53.27031.8201318Ruby
Sakura Chiyo57.56231.5511517E1W
Aoyama Nanami58.87330.5881615Ruby
Daidōji Tomoyo42.98329.427922Ruby
Male DivisionShow
E1CLPCVPWL
Hikigaya Hachiman108.00051.076360E1W
Levi100.97446.488332Diamond+
Gilgamesh96.46540.703314Diamond+
Shiota Nagisa102.89239.582341Diamond+
Okabe Rintarō94.37239.544305Diamond+
Riku Dola98.40539.112323Diamond+
Ainz Ooal Gown93.38139.050297E1W
Ayanokōji Kiyotaka89.08838.691279E1L
Archer93.90338.343305Diamond+
Emiya Shirō85.94138.1902610E1W
Kamijō Tōma81.72736.7152411Diamond+
Togashi Yūta81.08936.6952411Diamond
Tachibana Taki80.03736.186256Ruby
Willem Kmetsch82.51935.3292510Diamond+
Emiya Kiritsugu78.65235.1972312Diamond
Saiki Kusuo77.17835.1902213Diamond+
Saitama76.49935.1442213Diamond+
Akabane Karma70.99534.8161916Diamond
Todoroki Shōto83.31034.3672510Diamond+
Okazaki Tomoya80.22034.2462411Diamond+
Ishida Shōya73.36634.1382114Diamond
Astolfo72.22834.1112016E1L
Eren Yeager63.35733.7481620E1L
Edogawa Conan68.58933.3231913E1W
Natsuki Subaru66.06332.9361718Diamond
Natsume Takashi73.16632.000229Ruby
Kyon70.24431.3771916Diamond
Li Syaoran75.39531.242238Ruby
Yato69.10430.7802011Ruby
Midoriya Izuku64.75029.9581813Ruby
Takasu Ryūji62.76629.7451714Ruby
Satō Kazuma58.43329.2581516Ruby
Edward Elric53.47328.6311318Ruby
Kaneki Ken57.89328.5601516Ruby
Uchiha Itachi46.04827.896922Ruby
Orihara Izaya44.33326.721923E1L
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Ennadai
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Re: 2018 Elimination stage general discussions

Post by Ennadai » Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:30 pm

Result (Elimination 1) (REVISED VERSION)Show
NameVF%
(FEV%)
Z-scorePV(0.1)PV(0.2)PV(0.5)
Kanna Kamui55.03%
(52.27%)
0.8151.863
(-0.096)
161.467
(+0.784)
160.973
(+11.433)
Izumi Sagiri44.97%
(47.73%)
-0.8122.540
(+0.096)
137.662
(-0.784)
152.332
(-11.433)
Tōsaka Rin37.12%
(52.77%)
-4.0134.641
(-3.875)
148.604
(-9.252)
158.134
(-29.735)
Takanashi Rikka62.88%
(47.23%)
4.0134.133
(+3.875)
152.044
(+9.252)
187.776
(+29.735)
Tokisaki Kurumi49.59%
(52.85%)
-1.3125.707
(-1.299)
130.426
(-2.028)
128.034
(-0.057)
Sakura Chiyo50.41%
(47.15%)
1.3104.234
(+1.299)
116.246
(+2.028)
130.060
(+0.057)
Schwi Dola51.38%
(51.88%)
-0.2119.982
(-0.155)
129.998
(-0.061)
142.246
(-0.972)
Yuigahama Yui48.62%
(48.12%)
0.2110.800
(+0.155)
122.515
(+0.061)
132.687
(+0.972)
Hikigaya Hachiman72.34%
(62.97%)
3.9177.891
(+3.126)
205.687
(+6.008)
230.592
(+12.787)
Astolfo27.66%
(37.03%)
-3.9106.920
(-3.126)
111.884
(-6.008)
105.864
(-12.787)
Ayanokōji Kiyotaka49.45%
(50.85%)
-0.7119.987
(-0.313)
127.048
(-0.642)
135.819
(-2.185)
Emiya Shirō50.55%
(49.15%)
0.7116.947
(+0.313)
124.681
(+0.642)
134.416
(+2.185)
Ainz Ooal Gown52.45%
(54.53%)
-0.7121.806
(-0.744)
129.460
(-1.224)
136.823
(-0.414)
Orihara Izaya47.55%
(45.47%)
0.797.672
(+0.744)
108.041
(+1.224)
123.260
(+0.414)
Eren Yeager48.91%
(46.83%)
2.7100.783
(+0.390)
105.646
(+0.741)
105.325
(+3.066)
Edogawa Conan51.09%
(53.17%)
-2.7112.436
(-0.390)
116.392
(-0.741)
116.269
(-3.066)
Match Card (Elimination 1) (REVISED VERSION)Show
ContestantVFContestantVFVDAbstention
Kanna Kamui20263Izumi Sagiri1656037032.5%
Takanashi Rikka22251Tōsaka Rin1313591166.3%
Hikigaya Hachiman25960Astolfo9928160325.0%
Emiya Shirō16982Ayanokōji Kiyotaka1661336911.1%
Minamoto Momo15176Beelzebub1464253421.1%
Komai Hasuki15577Nagami Suzuka1535821918.1%
High Elf Archer18152Tatejima Kotetsu12926522617.7%
Erza Scarlet15758Takanashi Misha1539536317.5%
Itsuwa17020Hanazawa Yūna15053196715.1%
Kazano Asagi15491Tsuchimiya Asuka15486518.0%
Jeanne d’Arc16245Shinjō Akane1541682916.2%
Izawa Shizue16143Trish Una1529385016.8%
Sophie Twilight15700Ayasato Mayoi (Maya Fey)1543226817.6%
Danchō Arthur15876Nanami Tōko1513873817.9%
Kasaki Nozomi15293Hongō Tae12814247925.6%
Mizuno Ai19168Merc12429673916.3%
Sakura Chiyo17586Tokisaki Kurumi172972897.6%
Schwi Dola14674Yuigahama Yui1388379124.4%
Ainz Ooal Gown16143Orihara Izaya14636150718.5%
Edogawa Conan16469Eren Yeager1576970014.6%
Hanasaka Yui16394Hinatsuru Ai1605234214.1%
μ15459Aihara Mei1512833119.0%
Sora Ginko18371Yukimura Aoi14155421613.9%
Yashajin Ai16314Teresa Wagner162714313.7%
Female Division (Elimination 1) (REVISED VERSION)Show
CLPCVPWL
Kanna Kamui103.63953.985342E1W
Yūki Asuna96.66551.722314Diamond+
Rem102.86751.174341Diamond+
Yukinoshita Yukino96.52447.072314Diamond+
Chtholly Nota Seniorious96.52746.484314Diamond+
Nishimiya Shōko91.46646.144296Diamond+
Shiina Mashiro91.85546.084296Diamond+
Tokisaki Kurumi90.40546.557288E1L
Takanashi Rikka85.89445.6932610E1W
Tōsaka Rin96.51645.456315E1L
Tōru82.69243.8552510Diamond+
Haibara Ai75.82443.2052213Diamond
Shiro89.44943.188287Diamond+
Illyasviel von Einzbern86.61842.607278Diamond+
Kinomoto Sakura74.16342.4902114Diamond+
Makise Kurisu83.06742.1662510Diamond+
Saber85.05841.838269Diamond+
Emilia74.38341.3932114Diamond
Schwi Dola75.82937.556239E1W
Izumi Sagiri85.73542.0302610E1L
Suzumiya Haruhi60.37335.8341615Ruby
Aisaka Taiga70.21835.0222110Ruby
Nakano Azusa71.58438.3782015Diamond
Kuriyama Mirai55.26233.9311417Ruby
Megumin59.53133.3011615Ruby
Nagato Yuki66.09833.2011912Ruby
Kōsaka Reina64.65537.1021718Diamond
Kitashirakawa Tamako68.85836.8341916Diamond
Furukawa Nagisa75.41836.7372213Diamond
Tomori Nao64.16132.2321813Ruby
Yuigahama Yui66.43637.1461719E1L
Kasumigaoka Utaha63.39231.9251813Ruby
Nibutani Shinka53.27031.8201318Ruby
Aoyama Nanami58.87330.5881615Ruby
Sakura Chiyo57.56231.5501517E1W
Daidōji Tomoyo42.98329.427922Ruby
Male Division (Elimination 1) (REVISED VERSION)Show
CLPCVPWL
Hikigaya Hachiman108.00051.076360E1W
Levi100.97446.488332Diamond+
Tachibana Taki80.03736.186256Ruby
Gilgamesh96.46540.703314Diamond+
Shiota Nagisa102.89239.582341Diamond+
Okabe Rintarō94.37239.544305Diamond+
Riku Dola98.40539.112323Diamond+
Archer93.90338.343305Diamond+
Ainz Ooal Gown93.38139.050297E1W
Ayanokōji Kiyotaka89.08838.691279E1L
Emiya Shirō85.94138.1902610E1W
Kamijō Tōma81.72736.7152411Diamond+
Togashi Yūta81.08936.6952411Diamond
Edogawa Conan68.58933.3231913E1W
Natsume Takashi73.16632.000229Ruby
Willem Kmetsch82.51935.3292510Diamond+
Li Syaoran75.39531.242238Ruby
Emiya Kiritsugu78.65235.1972312Diamond
Saiki Kusuo77.17835.1902213Diamond+
Saitama76.49935.1442213Diamond+
Akabane Karma70.99534.8161916Diamond
Yato69.10430.7802011Ruby
Todoroki Shōto83.31034.3672510Diamond+
Okazaki Tomoya80.22034.2462411Diamond+
Ishida Shōya73.36634.1382114Diamond
Midoriya Izuku64.75029.9581813Ruby
Takasu Ryūji62.76629.7451714Ruby
Astolfo72.22834.1112016E1L
Satō Kazuma58.43329.2581516Ruby
Natsuki Subaru66.06332.9361718Diamond
Eren Yeager63.35733.7481620E1L
Edward Elric53.47328.6311318Ruby
Kaneki Ken57.89328.5601516Ruby
Uchiha Itachi46.04827.896922Ruby
Kyon70.24431.3771916Diamond
Orihara Izaya44.33326.721923E1L
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Ennadai
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Re: 2018 Elimination stage general discussions

Post by Ennadai » Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:00 pm

expected VF% (Elimination 3)Show
Name (W-L,CVP)FEV%STDV%
Rem v. Makise Kurisu57.41% - 42.59%
(34-1,51.174) (25-10,42.166)2.57%
Nishimiya Shōko v. Shiro49.28% - 50.72%
(29-6,46.144) (28-7,43.188)2.23%
Emilia v. Nibutani Shinka52.29% - 47.71%
(21-14,41.393) (13-18,31.820)3.17%
Kitashirakawa Tamako v. Aisaka Taiga51.47% - 48.53%
(19-16,36.834) (21-10,35.022)2.43%
Kuriyama Mirai v. Daidōji Tomoyo55.45% - 44.55%
(14-17,33.931) (9-22,29.427)2.01%
Nagato Yuki v. Tomori Nao50.18% - 49.82%
(19-12,33.201) (18-13,32.232)3.13%
Gilgamesh v. Todoroki Shōto53.34% - 46.66%
(31-4,40.703) (25-10,34.367)1.76%
Riku Dola v. Willem Kmetsch50.98% - 49.02%
(32-3,39.112) (25-10,35.329)2.71%
Tachibana Taki v. Midoriya Izuku50.63% - 49.37%
(25-6,36.186) (18-13,29.958)1.99%
Ishida Shōya v. Kyon48.44% - 51.56%
(21-14,34.138) (19-16,31.377)1.79%
Satō Kazuma v. Uchiha Itachi50.87% - 49.13%
(15-16,29.258) (9-22,27.896)2.23%
Edward Elric v. Kaneki Ken51.00% - 49.00%
(13-18,28.631) (15-16,28.560)1.49%
Last meetings (Elimination 3)Show
2017 Elimination 1Rem28891656Makise Kurisu
2017 Sapphire 9Rem1638996Makise Kurisu
2018 Ruby 4Emilia2229219111Nibutani Shinka
2018 Ruby 1Kitashirakawa Tamako97929515Aisaka Taiga
2016 Ruby 5Nagato Yuki11381480Tomori Nao
2018 Topaz 8Gilgamesh38023134Todoroki Shōto
2018 Amethyst 6Riku Dola46923877Willem Kmetsch
2018 Sapphire 4Tachibana Taki23652169Midoriya Izuku
2018 Amethyst 5Satō Kazuma31033069Uchiha Itachi
2018 Emerald 5Edward Elric966710855Kaneki Ken
2015 Aquamarine 1Edward Elric32371899Kaneki Ken
2016 Ruby 5Image
2015 Aquamarine 1Image
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Ennadai
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Re: 2018 Elimination stage general discussions

Post by Ennadai » Fri Jan 18, 2019 1:45 pm

Result (Elimination 2)Show
NameVF%
(FEV%)
Z-scorePV(0.1)PV(0.2)PV(0.5)
Yukinoshita Yukino58.07%
(52.45%)
2.6139.677
(+1.244)
151.175
(+3.142)
162.947
(+9.687)
Kinomoto Sakura41.93%
(47.55%)
-2.6120.116
(-1.244)
130.773
(-3.142)
134.314
(-9.687)
Chtholly Nota Seniorious52.22%
(54.13%)
-1.6139.811
(-0.407)
149.517
(-1.047)
149.520
(-3.229)
Illyasviel von Einzbern47.78%
(45.87%)
1.6120.910
(+0.407)
128.790
(+1.047)
130.629
(+3.229)
Nakano Azusa52.08%
(49.95%)
0.7114.728
(+0.067)
122.889
(+0.577)
128.933
(+6.329)
Kasumigaoka Utaha47.92%
(50.05%)
-0.7106.727
(-0.067)
117.519
(-0.577)
130.802
(-6.329)
Kōsaka Reina48.39%
(48.45%)
0.0107.807
(-0.393)
113.552
(-0.523)
118.094
(+3.520)
Megumin51.61%
(51.55%)
0.0107.657
(+0.393)
116.772
(+0.523)
133.215
(-3.520)
Shiota Nagisa50.15%
(55.69%)
-3.2131.025
(-1.108)
138.125
(-2.723)
144.056
(-8.980)
Saitama49.85%
(44.31%)
3.2110.359
(+1.108)
115.577
(+2.723)
125.282
(+8.980)
Okabe Rintarō52.96%
(54.89%)
-0.7131.802
(-0.144)
146.310
(-0.886)
161.183
(-5.309)
Saiki Kusuo47.04%
(45.11%)
0.7114.643
(+0.144)
123.287
(+0.886)
133.169
(+5.309)
Emiya Kiritsugu50.50%
(49.70%)
0.3111.659
(+0.135)
118.837
(+0.440)
131.405
(+1.144)
Yato49.50%
(50.30%)
-0.3111.854
(-0.135)
119.964
(-0.440)
131.061
(-1.144)
Akabane Karma49.87%
(46.94%)
1.0109.787
(+0.285)
115.511
(+1.435)
129.986
(+6.301)
Li Syaoran50.13%
(53.06%)
-1.0115.497
(-0.285)
127.610
(-1.435)
143.284
(-6.301)
Match Card (Elimination 2)Show
ContestantVFContestantVFVDAbstention
Yukinoshita Yukino18113Kinomoto Sakura1307650375.8%
Chtholly Nota Seniorious17285Illyasviel von Einzbern1581614690.0%
Shiota Nagisa14449Saitama143628713.0%
Okabe Rintarō15089Saiki Kusuo13405168413.9%
Sakurajima Mai17792Beelzebub11599619311.2%
Alice Zuberg15961Nagami Suzuka12603335813.7%
Koito Yū14357Tatejima Kotetsu1372263515.2%
Azusagawa Kaede15389Takanashi Misha13434195512.9%
Juliet Persia13728Hanazawa Yūna1282890019.8%
Takarada Rikka16287Tsuchimiya Asuka12433385413.2%
Minamoto Sakura15692Shinjō Akane13154253812.9%
Index L. Prohibitorum15513Trish Una13321219212.9%
Priestess15104Ayasato Mayoi (Maya Fey)13321178314.1%
Nanami Tōko14325Tsukishiro Hitomi1387245314.8%
Futaba Rio15196Hongō Tae13012218414.8%
Yoroizuka Mizore14233Merc12459177419.4%
Nakano Azusa15294Kasumigaoka Utaha14074122011.3%
Megumin15280Kōsaka Reina1432895210.6%
Emiya Kiritsugu14559Yato1427028912.9%
Li Syaoran14383Akabane Karma143107313.3%
Tsuyuzaki Mahiru14351Special Week1397337814.4%
Misaka Mikoto19191Pikachu1111780748.4%
Hatsune Miku15640YoRHa No.2 Type B13405223512.3%
Atago14244WA20001378346115.3%
Female Division (Elimination 2)Show
CLPCVPWL
Kanna Kamui103.63953.985342E1W
Yūki Asuna96.66551.722314Diamond+
Rem102.86751.174341Diamond+
Yukinoshita Yukino99.52448.326324E2W
Chtholly Nota Seniorious99.52747.681324E2W
Nishimiya Shōko91.46646.144296Diamond+
Shiina Mashiro91.85546.084296Diamond+
Tokisaki Kurumi90.40546.557288E1L
Takanashi Rikka85.89445.6932610E1W
Tōsaka Rin96.51645.456315E1L
Tōru82.69243.8552510Diamond+
Haibara Ai75.82443.2052213Diamond
Shiro89.44943.188287Diamond+
Illyasviel von Einzbern87.53343.702279E2L
Kinomoto Sakura74.88443.3952115E2L
Makise Kurisu83.06742.1662510Diamond+
Saber85.05841.838269Diamond+
Emilia74.38341.3932114Diamond
Schwi Dola75.82937.556239E1W
Izumi Sagiri85.73542.0302610E1L
Suzumiya Haruhi60.37335.8341615Ruby
Aisaka Taiga70.21835.0222110Ruby
Nakano Azusa74.58439.4372115E2W
Kuriyama Mirai55.26233.9311417Ruby
Megumin62.53134.3601715E2W
Nagato Yuki66.09833.2011912Ruby
Kōsaka Reina65.59238.0951719E2L
Kitashirakawa Tamako68.85836.8341916Diamond
Furukawa Nagisa75.41836.7372213Diamond
Tomori Nao64.16132.2321813Ruby
Yuigahama Yui66.43637.1461719E1L
Kasumigaoka Utaha64.31232.8991814E2L
Nibutani Shinka53.27031.8201318Ruby
Aoyama Nanami58.87330.5881615Ruby
Sakura Chiyo57.56231.5501517E1W
Daidōji Tomoyo42.98329.427922Ruby
Male Division (Elimination 2)Show
CLPCVPWL
Hikigaya Hachiman108.00051.076360E1W
Levi100.97446.488332Diamond+
Tachibana Taki80.03736.186256Ruby
Gilgamesh96.46540.703314Diamond+
Okabe Rintarō97.37240.589315E2W
Shiota Nagisa105.89240.582351E2W
Riku Dola98.40539.112323Diamond+
Archer93.90338.343305Diamond+
Ainz Ooal Gown93.38139.050297E1W
Ayanokōji Kiyotaka89.08838.691279E1L
Emiya Shirō85.94138.1902610E1W
Kamijō Tōma81.72736.7152411Diamond+
Togashi Yūta81.08936.6952411Diamond
Edogawa Conan68.58933.3231913E1W
Natsume Takashi73.16632.000229Ruby
Willem Kmetsch82.51935.3292510Diamond+
Li Syaoran78.39532.238248E2W
Emiya Kiritsugu81.65236.2052412E2W
Saitama77.49336.1382214E2L
Saiki Kusuo78.06636.1182214E2L
Akabane Karma71.99035.8071917E2L
Yato70.08431.7682012E2L
Todoroki Shōto83.31034.3672510Diamond+
Okazaki Tomoya80.22034.2462411Diamond+
Ishida Shōya73.36634.1382114Diamond
Midoriya Izuku64.75029.9581813Ruby
Takasu Ryūji62.76629.7451714Ruby
Astolfo72.22834.1112016E1L
Satō Kazuma58.43329.2581516Ruby
Natsuki Subaru66.06332.9361718Diamond
Eren Yeager63.35733.7481620E1L
Edward Elric53.47328.6311318Ruby
Kaneki Ken57.89328.5601516Ruby
Uchiha Itachi46.04827.896922Ruby
Kyon70.24431.3771916Diamond
Orihara Izaya44.33326.721923E1L
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