No Prediction Thread Yet?

Single-Elimination Tournament and future ISML contests
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Re: No Prediction Thread Yet?

Post by Cross » Sun Oct 23, 2011 6:33 am

Single elimination means:
being defeated once = automatically eliminated in PS?
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Re: No Prediction Thread Yet?

Post by amdrag » Sun Oct 23, 2011 7:15 am

Cross wrote:Single elimination means:
being defeated once = automatically eliminated in PS?
Yes, but they're going to do a consolation side of the bracket for seeding, which means that a girl who loses could finish as high as 3rd.
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Re: No Prediction Thread Yet?

Post by Eclairs » Sun Oct 23, 2011 7:22 am

amdrag wrote:
Cross wrote:Single elimination means:
being defeated once = automatically eliminated in PS?
Yes, but they're going to do a consolation side of the bracket for seeding, which means that a girl who loses could finish as high as 3rd.
Ehh ? i thought that only holds true to Double Elimination ( like last year ) where loosing girls in the first rounds can go up till 3rd place ? I thought for Single Elimination, the 3rd place will be contested between the loosing SEMIFINALISTS ?
and 5th to 8th will be contested to the loosing quarter finalists ?
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Re: No Prediction Thread Yet?

Post by Aria.H » Sun Oct 23, 2011 7:31 am

Eclairs wrote:
amdrag wrote:
Cross wrote:Single elimination means:
being defeated once = automatically eliminated in PS?
Yes, but they're going to do a consolation side of the bracket for seeding, which means that a girl who loses could finish as high as 3rd.
Ehh ? i thought that only holds true to Double Elimination ( like last year ) where loosing girls in the first rounds can go up till 3rd place ? I thought for Single Elimination, the 3rd place will be contested between the loosing SEMIFINALISTS ?
and 5th to 8th will be contested to the loosing quarter finalists ?
Which means... SE is exactly same as DE except for the top girl only have to win one final match to win Tiara?
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Re: No Prediction Thread Yet?

Post by Eclairs » Sun Oct 23, 2011 7:37 am

No Aria. Its different from last year's DE. Railgun lost in her winner's match 1 to Mio, and then won her looser's matches = and she meets again Mio in the final. In DE, even if you lose, you can STILL win the tiara, by winning your loser's bracket match ups and work your way to the final. I thought in SE, when u lost, thats it for you, you wont be able to go further. Only way for you to go is the consolation prizes :

Lost in round of 16 ? = You the should only be ALLOWED to fight for the spot from 9 - 16
Lost in the 1/4 finals = You can only fight for 5 - 8
Lost in the Semis = 3rd and 4th play-off
Finalists are for the tiara.

Thats usually how Single Elimination tournament formats are.

This year, we are doing SIngle Elimination tournament format, not Double Elimination tournament format. If we used DE, the loosing quarter finalist might even go up to contest for the Tiara ( Railgun's case last year ) . But not in this year's case.
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Re: No Prediction Thread Yet?

Post by xcrossfacekillahx » Sun Oct 23, 2011 7:50 am

My predictions: (based on Eclairs' format)
Tiara Winner - Kanade
Losing finalist - Mikoto
Semi-finalists - Yuki and Shana
Quarter finalists - Azusa, Hinagiku, Taiga, Kuroneko
1st round casualties - Nadeko, Charlotte, Senjougahara, Yuri, Yui, Eucliwood, Haruhi and Mio.

Reasons for doing so:
Round 1 -
Mio can't win against Hinagiku and Haruhi can't beat Taiga.
So no upsets.
Round 2 -
Azusa will lose to Shana
Hinagiku will lose to Kanade
Taiga will lose to Mikoto
Kuroneko will lose to Yuki
Round 3 -
Since Yuki doesn't have anything going for her ever since Disappearance, coupled with Mikoto having decent performances in and out of ISML, I will give the finals spot for the Railgun. Yuki will be 4th place.

Azusa to lose to Shana, just not this time for Azusa-
It is a down year for the K-On girls after their dominance in Saimoe last year when Mio got the ISML and KBM titles and Azusa got the AST one. Azusa will lose not because of the lack of material. Shana just has everything going her way. Azusa won against Shana in the regular season because some of us wanted Shana to get the Ruby Necklace in which it happened.

Shana or Kanade? - Mikoto, Pick Your Poison
Shana has been a force to be reckoned with in the regular season and has always been at the top of her game, with or without material. She has won the most necklaces in ISML and will look to go for the big one. Season 3 doesn't make a lot of difference of whether she gives her A game or not. Kanade will win even without material because the stakes are high. She has had big and small wins in the season and it would be a record setting if she can win the tiara. She is undefeated.
Kanade can be:
the 1st girl to have an undefeated regular season and post season
the 2nd girl to rank 1st in regular season(Fate, 2008) to win the heavenly tiara

Anyway back on the topic. Pick your poison. Why? Because anyone who will enter the finals can beat Mikoto so the highest she'll get is 2nd place.

Single Elimination Losers
1st round - 9th place highest you can get
Quarterfinals - 5th place highest you can get
Semifinals - 3rd place highest you can get

Oh looks like someone pointed that out
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Re: No Prediction Thread Yet?

Post by Aria.H » Sun Oct 23, 2011 7:58 am

@Eclairs: I get what you mean and that was actually what I thought.
But according to this...
amdrag wrote:Yes, but they're going to do a consolation side of the bracket for seeding, which means that a girl who loses could finish as high as 3rd.
It seems like we are using the SE format to decide the Tiara winner ONLY. And use the DE format to decide rank 2-16
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Re: No Prediction Thread Yet?

Post by Eclairs » Sun Oct 23, 2011 8:18 am

I want to see how they fix the loser's bracket ones. It will be unfair if people who lost in the round of 16 can go up to 3rd if she manages to win her matches. I have this feeling that the normal SE model which i posted will be used, in which 3rd/4th will be contested by losing semifinalist, 5 - 8 will be contested by losing quarter-finalists and 9 - 16 will be contested by the 1st round casualties.
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Re: No Prediction Thread Yet?

Post by Darth Blitzer » Sun Oct 23, 2011 8:40 am

xcrossfacekillahx wrote:Season 3 doesn't make a lot of difference of whether she gives her A game or not.
I agree, in most cases i would argue that new material is a way to prevent losing voters, not gaining any, I doubt what i perceive to be Shana's dedicated fanbase shriveled up and suddenly season 3 pops up and she makes up what was a 1000 vote loss (albeit mid-season) in any match up with Kanade

It's much more important to Shana's campaign that a bunch of people would be happier with her winning than Kanade, and that the inevitable increase in voters we always see during the later parts of post-season benefit her and serves as a negative to Kanade (which considering Shana's flaming out in the last two post-seasons, has clearly been a negative in the past)
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Re: No Prediction Thread Yet?

Post by Aria.H » Sun Oct 23, 2011 8:55 am

For the semi-finalists they can just be paired up to decide the 3rd and 4th place.
Problem is how they decide quater-finalists and the rest. As long as this is SE, there will be some kind of unfair scissors-paper-rock situation.
e.g. Azusa < Mio, Mio < Hina, Hina < Azusa
or even more confusing...
Yuri < Yui < Char < Nadeko < Hitagi < Yuri
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Re: No Prediction Thread Yet?

Post by Aria.H » Sun Oct 23, 2011 8:57 am

Darth Blitzer wrote:
xcrossfacekillahx wrote:Season 3 doesn't make a lot of difference of whether she gives her A game or not.
I agree, in most cases i would argue that new material is a way to prevent losing voters, not gaining any, I doubt what i perceive to be Shana's dedicated fanbase shriveled up and suddenly season 3 pops up and she makes up what was a 1000 vote loss (albeit mid-season) in any match up with Kanade

It's much more important to Shana's campaign that a bunch of people would be happier with her winning than Kanade, and that the inevitable increase in voters we always see during the later parts of post-season benefit her and serves as a negative to Kanade (which considering Shana's flaming out in the last two post-seasons, has clearly been a negative in the past)
Agree to both. Plus it's not like non-Shana fans will watch season 3.
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Re: No Prediction Thread Yet?

Post by YagamiHayate » Sun Oct 23, 2011 9:10 am

I'm guessing this is how it will work. The elimination tournament will pretty much be the same as DE, except that what would be the second-last match of the loser's bracket in DE becomes the last match of the consolation bracket; with the winner of that match taking 3rd place instead of having the chance to go against the loser of the winner's bracket final (which just becomes the championship match for 1st/2nd). This is assuming that it is true that a girl who loses her first match can still come in 3rd.
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Re: No Prediction Thread Yet?

Post by xcrossfacekillahx » Sun Oct 23, 2011 9:10 am

I'm not a big Shana fan but I am watching Season 3 but my guess is Kanade wants it more and so
my guess for losers bracketShow
Finals
winner gets 1st and loser gets 2nd
Semifinals losers
3 vs 4 (battle for 3rd) in Finals Day

Quarterfinals Losers
5 vs 8 and 6 vs 7 in Semis Day
W1 vs W2 (battle for 5th) and L1 vs L2 (battle for 7th) in Finals Day

Round 1 Losers
9 vs 16, 10 vs 15, 11 vs 14, 12 vs 13 in Quarterfinals Day

W1 vs W4, W2 vs W3 on Semifinals Day
losers will fight for 11th place on Finals Day
winners will fight for 9th place on Finals Day

L1 vs L4, L2 vs L3 on Semifinals Day
winners will fight for 13th place on Finals Day
losers will fight for 15th place on Finals Day
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Re: No Prediction Thread Yet?

Post by Eclairs » Sun Oct 23, 2011 10:54 am

xcrossfacekillahx wrote:I'm not a big Shana fan but I am watching Season 3 but my guess is Kanade wants it more and so
my guess for losers bracketShow
Finals
winner gets 1st and loser gets 2nd
Semifinals losers
3 vs 4 (battle for 3rd) in Finals Day

Quarterfinals Losers
5 vs 8 and 6 vs 7 in Semis Day
W1 vs W2 (battle for 5th) and L1 vs L2 (battle for 7th) in Finals Day

Round 1 Losers
9 vs 16, 10 vs 15, 11 vs 14, 12 vs 13 in Quarterfinals Day

W1 vs W4, W2 vs W3 on Semifinals Day
losers will fight for 11th place on Finals Day
winners will fight for 9th place on Finals Day

L1 vs L4, L2 vs L3 on Semifinals Day
winners will fight for 13th place on Finals Day
losers will fight for 15th place on Finals Day
I thought something like that too, for the SE. SE is all about keeping the STILL UNDEFEATED contestants away from the conquered ones. They keep their marches towards the Tiara and high end finishes, and the vanquished ones can fight for the crumbs, as they are not worthy enough of high placed finishers. Mixing SE and DE will leave a lot of bad taste in the end, like lets say, if mio lost to Hina, then win her loser bracket match up, then again, winning her loser bracket match up, ending the PS with 1 lost ( in her main SE schedule ) + 3 wins ( albeit against defeated ones ) might end up higher than lets say Yuki who will win her round of 16, and round of 8 matches, then looses to Railgun in the semis and then lost again to, lets say Kanade / Shana, meaning she'll end up with 2 wins + 1 losses ( from her main SE schedule ) and 1 more loss to lets say Kanade / Shana in the loser bracket. The main pulling power of SE is to let the STRONGEST girls stay up till the semis / finals, by weeding out the useless ones like Nadeko, Charlotte and Yui asap and keeping the behemoths still rolling ( Kanade / Railgun / Shana / Yuki ) .
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Re: No Prediction Thread Yet?

Post by Aria.H » Sun Oct 23, 2011 11:14 am

Well either way the girl who gets the higher rank deserves it. Luck cannot help someone weak onto a high rank.
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Re: No Prediction Thread Yet?

Post by Eclairs » Sun Oct 23, 2011 11:37 am

Aria.H wrote:Well either way the girl who gets the higher rank deserves it. Luck cannot help someone weak onto a high rank.
Well no to be honest. If the loser's bracket is like how amdrag line up, it is possible for lets say Mio to end up higher compared to the Yuki, if after her lost to Mio, then beats the useless ones in the loser's bracket. Mio will not have any problem dispatching Haruhi, Yuu and the other extras in SE. Not a chance. That will mean, she'll end up with 3 - 1 record in post season and finish up as high as third, while the loosing semi finalists might end up below her, if the said losing semi finalist then lost to her match up against the fellow losing semifinalist. But if the Post Season losing bracket is like how CrossFace anticipate, that will mean that she wont be able to finish any higher than 9th ( which is fair, considering she lost to Hina ) . Same with Kuroneko or Taiga. Their anticipated loss in the quarters should then restrict their final placing to between 5 - 8, and not higher. The loser's bracket = easy to win.

I'll bring you a scenario here : what will happen if say ( this is a theoretical result only ) :

Yuki vs Railgun and Yuki lost
Kanade vs Shana and Kanade lost

then Yuki vs kanade and yuki lost . ( thats from the main SE bracket )

while for Mio :
Lost to Hina -> then win against extras number 1 -> win against extras number 2 -> win again against extras number 3 and she finishes in 3rd ?

That wont be fair to BOTH Kanade and Yuki, since both of them made it to the semis and lost to Railgun and Shana ( in that scenario i bring out ). Since its all fixed that we are doing SE, i think we need to set the standards already :
lost in the round of 16 : max you can go -> number 9
lost in the round of 8 : max you can go -> number 5
lost in the semis : playoff for 3rd place.

Its nicely streamlined.
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Re: No Prediction Thread Yet?

Post by xcrossfacekillahx » Sun Oct 23, 2011 11:59 am

Eclairs wrote:
That wont be fair to BOTH Kanade and Yuki, since both of them made it to the semis and lost to Railgun and Shana ( in that scenario i bring out ). Since its all fixed that we are doing SE, i think we need to set the standards already :
lost in the round of 16 : max you can go -> number 9
lost in the round of 8 : max you can go -> number 5
lost in the semis : playoff for 3rd place.

Its nicely streamlined.
Which is what I made earlier. I guess you're more concerned about the win-loss record. If you win the matches you're supposed to win, you'll get high in the standings.
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Re: No Prediction Thread Yet?

Post by YagamiHayate » Sun Oct 23, 2011 11:59 am

Eclairs wrote:
xcrossfacekillahx wrote:I'm not a big Shana fan but I am watching Season 3 but my guess is Kanade wants it more and so
my guess for losers bracketShow
Finals
winner gets 1st and loser gets 2nd
Semifinals losers
3 vs 4 (battle for 3rd) in Finals Day

Quarterfinals Losers
5 vs 8 and 6 vs 7 in Semis Day
W1 vs W2 (battle for 5th) and L1 vs L2 (battle for 7th) in Finals Day

Round 1 Losers
9 vs 16, 10 vs 15, 11 vs 14, 12 vs 13 in Quarterfinals Day

W1 vs W4, W2 vs W3 on Semifinals Day
losers will fight for 11th place on Finals Day
winners will fight for 9th place on Finals Day

L1 vs L4, L2 vs L3 on Semifinals Day
winners will fight for 13th place on Finals Day
losers will fight for 15th place on Finals Day
I thought something like that too, for the SE. SE is all about keeping the STILL UNDEFEATED contestants away from the conquered ones. They keep their marches towards the Tiara and high end finishes, and the vanquished ones can fight for the crumbs, as they are not worthy enough of high placed finishers. Mixing SE and DE will leave a lot of bad taste in the end, like lets say, if mio lost to Hina, then win her loser bracket match up, then again, winning her loser bracket match up, ending the PS with 1 lost ( in her main SE schedule ) + 3 wins ( albeit against defeated ones ) might end up higher than lets say Yuki who will win her round of 16, and round of 8 matches, then looses to Railgun in the semis and then lost again to, lets say Kanade / Shana, meaning she'll end up with 2 wins + 1 losses ( from her main SE schedule ) and 1 more loss to lets say Kanade / Shana in the loser bracket. The main pulling power of SE is to let the STRONGEST girls stay up till the semis / finals, by weeding out the useless ones like Nadeko, Charlotte and Yui asap and keeping the behemoths still rolling ( Kanade / Railgun / Shana / Yuki ) .
I'm not really sure what you're trying to say. Even with the use of a DE-style consolation bracket, there will never be a match where an undefeated girl goes against a defeated one. Also, by using the DE-style consolation bracket, it solves the problem of potential poor seeding. In 2009 for example, Hina (seed 11) defeated Fate (seed 6) in round 1, which would have meant she could only finish as high as 9th if a traditional single elimination consolation bracket were used. As it was, she was able to fight her way through the loser's bracket and take 6th. Double elimination is generally considered to be a better method than single elimination to ascertain contestants' true strengths.
Eclairs wrote:
Aria.H wrote:Well either way the girl who gets the higher rank deserves it. Luck cannot help someone weak onto a high rank.
Well no to be honest. If the loser's bracket is like how amdrag line up, it is possible for lets say Mio to end up higher compared to the Yuki, if after her lost to Mio, then beats the useless ones in the loser's bracket. Mio will not have any problem dispatching Haruhi, Yuu and the other extras in SE. Not a chance. That will mean, she'll end up with 3 - 1 record in post season and finish up as high as third, while the loosing semi finalists might end up below her, if the said losing semi finalist then lost to her match up against the fellow losing semifinalist. But if the Post Season losing bracket is like how CrossFace anticipate, that will mean that she wont be able to finish any higher than 9th ( which is fair, considering she lost to Hina ) . Same with Kuroneko or Taiga. Their anticipated loss in the quarters should then restrict their final placing to between 5 - 8, and not higher. The loser's bracket = easy to win.

I'll bring you a scenario here : what will happen if say ( this is a theoretical result only ) :

Yuki vs Railgun and Yuki lost
Kanade vs Shana and Kanade lost

then Yuki vs kanade and yuki lost . ( thats from the main SE bracket )

while for Mio :
Lost to Hina -> then win against extras number 1 -> win against extras number 2 -> win again against extras number 3 and she finishes in 3rd ?

That wont be fair to BOTH Kanade and Yuki, since both of them made it to the semis and lost to Railgun and Shana ( in that scenario i bring out ). Since its all fixed that we are doing SE, i think we need to set the standards already :
lost in the round of 16 : max you can go -> number 9
lost in the round of 8 : max you can go -> number 5
lost in the semis : playoff for 3rd place.

Its nicely streamlined.
These 'extras number 1,2,3' you're referring to aren't just going to be girls Mio can easily beat. If Yuki loses in the semi to Mikoto, she herself will get seeded into the consolation bracket, meaning for Mio to finish 3rd, she'll have to beat either Yuki or the loser of the other semi-final at least, assuming she even gets that far. It certainly isn't easy to win the consolation bracket like you're implying.
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Re: No Prediction Thread Yet?

Post by Eclairs » Sun Oct 23, 2011 12:07 pm

xcrossfacekillahx wrote:
Eclairs wrote:
That wont be fair to BOTH Kanade and Yuki, since both of them made it to the semis and lost to Railgun and Shana ( in that scenario i bring out ). Since its all fixed that we are doing SE, i think we need to set the standards already :
lost in the round of 16 : max you can go -> number 9
lost in the round of 8 : max you can go -> number 5
lost in the semis : playoff for 3rd place.

Its nicely streamlined.
Which is what I made earlier. I guess you're more concerned about the win-loss record. If you win the matches you're supposed to win, you'll get high in the standings.
No no Crossface. I dont care bout the win-lose ratio. I whole heartedly support your predicted loser's bracket schedule. A 2 - 2 score from the main SE tree must be placed higher to a 3 - 1 girl, who got her 3 wins against the extras 1, 2, 3 but lost in her first SE match.
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Re: No Prediction Thread Yet?

Post by YagamiHayate » Sun Oct 23, 2011 12:13 pm

Eclairs wrote:
xcrossfacekillahx wrote:
Eclairs wrote:
That wont be fair to BOTH Kanade and Yuki, since both of them made it to the semis and lost to Railgun and Shana ( in that scenario i bring out ). Since its all fixed that we are doing SE, i think we need to set the standards already :
lost in the round of 16 : max you can go -> number 9
lost in the round of 8 : max you can go -> number 5
lost in the semis : playoff for 3rd place.

Its nicely streamlined.
Which is what I made earlier. I guess you're more concerned about the win-loss record. If you win the matches you're supposed to win, you'll get high in the standings.
No no Crossface. I dont care bout the win-lose ratio. I whole heartedly support your predicted loser's bracket schedule. A 2 - 2 score from the main SE tree must be placed higher to a 3 - 1 girl, who got her 3 wins against the extras 1, 2, 3 but lost in her first SE match.
Again, if a girl (let's say Mio for example) lost her first round match against Hina, the only way for her to get 5-0 (yes, you need 5-0 to win the consolation bracket assuming a first-match loss) in the consolation bracket would be to defeat the loser of the Kanade/Shana semi-final (basing it on amdrag's bracket here) in the 4th round of consolation, as well as most likely Yuki herself in the final of the consolation bracket. In other words, Yuki will not finish lower ranked than Mio unless she actually loses to Mio herself (or even earlier in the consolation bracket).
Locked