2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Single-Elimination Tournament and future ISML contests
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by maglor » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:44 am

Vella wrote:
Just wrote:
Vella wrote: So, seriously, do you staff think that the form nowadays are the best? I mean the basic part: 2 divisions with 36 contestants in each, a nova division for 1 and 2 degrees, 35 rounds of Regular Season within 5 periods, playoff in division and then in league.
Suggestions?
I think 72 contestants and 36 matches every round should have reached the process limit of our staff. And considering the schedule, if every period need to be put in seperate months, this is probably the only possible form.

There is this other matter to consider : Can we expect casual voters to make a pick on 50+ arenas on each match days for 30+ match days within 6 month?
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by BugH » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:06 am

Pardon me,
before enter the new session
i want to discuss about something

I know it was the right of everybody to pick a vote or abstain
that's why we put abstain choice in arena

but...
i want to ask about admin (in FB) had posted
because, i saw many abstain at his/her votes

question
Is it right to admins to show a lot of abstain when posted his/her votes in FP ?
we aren't talking about one or two abstained arena(s)

related to my question, i want to suggest :
Admin has tasks to encourage the voters (in FB) to pick their choice and minimize the chance of abstain
i don't care if it will be pict. vote or something
so, please, at least show some passion to vote
for the sake of the voters in FP

once again, it your right to abstain
but please consider my suggestion

sorry for the rudeness of mine
but really, i just concern about ISML future
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by maglor » Fri Aug 22, 2014 8:32 am

BugH wrote:Pardon me,
before enter the new session
i want to discuss about something

I know it was the right of everybody to pick a vote or abstain
that's why we put abstain choice in arena

but...
i want to ask about admin (in FB) had posted
because, i saw many abstain at his/her votes

question
Is it right to admins to show a lot of abstain when posted his/her votes in FP ?
we aren't talking about one or two abstained arena(s)

related to my question, i want to suggest :
Admin has tasks to encourage the voters (in FB) to pick their choice and minimize the chance of abstain
i don't care if it will be pict. vote or something
so, please, at least show some passion to vote
for the sake of the voters in FP

once again, it your right to abstain
but please consider my suggestion

sorry for the rudeness of mine
but really, i just concern about ISML future
I understand your concern. There also is a differing view that believes admin should not post their votes, in order to be neutral. I post mine in the spirit of letting any potential conflicts of interest be known. We will think about this and also welcome people's inputs.
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by BugH » Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:34 am

maglor wrote: I understand your concern. There also is a differing view that believes admin should not post their votes, in order to be neutral. I post mine in the spirit of letting any potential conflicts of interest be known. We will think about this and also welcome people's inputs.
sorry to bring this matter up, maggy

I appreciate the work of all admins in FP
you guys do good jobs
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by matchbaby » Fri Aug 22, 2014 12:06 pm

I have done a SWVO-16(which means SWVO of only involving both of the top 16 matches)
novaShow
Itsuka Kotori 132.2161473
Tokisaki Kurumi 131.9614546
Yūki Asuna 121.6845792
Yoshino 120.5765534
Kuroyukihime 116.7834103
Takanashi Rikka 111.648848
Chitanda Eru 107.8869574
Tsutsukakushi Tsukiko 105.2212763
Aoyama Nanami 102.5356671
Nibutani Shinka 100.9819711
Yatogami Tōka 100.3965887
Kurousagi 87.36747953
Azuki Azusa 84.7269439
Yukinoshita Yukino 84.57081304
Yaya 78.62289129
Momo Belia Deviluke 72.38456728
stellaShow
Tachibana Kanade 158.2850549
Misaka Mikoto 147.4943806
Shiina Mashiro 133.3039525
Gokō Ruri (Kuroneko) 130.0384915
Aisaka Taiga 119.7153288
Eucliwood Hellscythe 112.1627583
Aragaki Ayase 109.3637233
Shana 101.9140865
Nakano Azusa 101.4483324
Yuzuriha Inori 99.54671873
Akiyama Mio 92.64372398
Yui-nyan 87.6533986
Hasegawa Kobato 82.3596264
Saber 82.06012025
Nakamura Yuri 81.78675241
Suzumiya Haruhi 78.41281202
Please notice that the value is [SWVO-16]^1.75/103.7227

Predict by using SWVO-16
novaShow
Itsuka Kotori 64.62%
Momo Belia Deviluke 35.38%

Tsutsukakushi Tsukiko 51.17%
Yatogami Tōka 48.83%

Yūki Asuna 58.95%
Azuki Azusa 41.05%

Kuroyukihime 53.63%
Nibutani Shinka 46.37%

Takanashi Rikka 56.10%
Kurousagi 43.90%

Tokisaki Kurumi 62.66%
Yaya 37.34%

Chitanda Eru 51.27%
Aoyama Nanami 48.73%

Yoshino 58.78%
Yukinoshita Yukino 41.22%
stellaShow
Misaka Mikoto 65.29%
Suzumiya Haruhi 34.71%

Shana 50.11%
Nakano Azusa 49.89%

Gokō Ruri (Kuroneko) 61.22%
Hasegawa Kobato 38.78%

Aisaka Taiga 57.73%
Yui-nyan 42.27%

Eucliwood Hellscythe 52.98%
Yuzuriha Inori 47.02%

Shiina Mashiro 61.98%
Nakamura Yuri 38.02%

Aragaki Ayase 54.14%
Akiyama Mio 45.86%

Tachibana Kanade 65.86%
Saber 34.14%
Last edited by matchbaby on Fri Aug 22, 2014 2:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by matchbaby » Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:15 pm

Okey, smartie use his gun and point to my head, force my to write down my odds:

Sapphire:
SpoilerShow
Kotori 1:2
Yoshino 1:2
Asuna 1:2
Kurumi 1:3
KYH 1:7
Rikka 1:14
Chitanda 1:20
Tsu 1:25
Tohka 1:30
Nanami 1:50
Others 1:1000
Diamond:
SpoilerShow
Mikoto 1:1
Kanade 1:1
Mashiro 2:3
Kuroneko 1:5
Taiga 1:7
Eu 1:10
Ayase 1:15
Shana 1:20
Azu-nyan 1:20
Inori 1:50
Mio 1:70
Others 1:1000
Tiara:
SpoilerShow
Kotori 1:2
Asuna 1:2
Mashiro 1:2
Yoshino 1:2
Kurumi 2:5
Mikoto 1:3
Kanade 1:4
KYH 1:8
Taiga 1:8
Eu 1:8
Ayase 1:10
Kuroneko 1:15
Rikka 1:20
Shana 1:20
Chitanda 1:50
Tsu 1:100
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by smartboyhw » Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:16 pm

I hereby declare that I'm not Isuzu Sento in Amagi Brilliant Park and did not use any weaponry to force matchbaby to write any odds.
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by avery-kun » Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:35 pm

matchbaby wrote:I have done a SWVO-16(which means SWVO of only involving both of the top 16 matches)
novaShow
Itsuka Kotori 132.2161473
Tokisaki Kurumi 131.9614546
Yūki Asuna 121.6845792
Yoshino 120.5765534
Kuroyukihime 116.7834103
Takanashi Rikka 111.648848
Chitanda Eru 107.8869574
Tsutsukakushi Tsukiko 105.2212763
Aoyama Nanami 102.5356671
Nibutani Shinka 100.9819711
Yatogami Tōka 100.3965887
Kurousagi 87.36747953
Azuki Azusa 84.7269439
Yukinoshita Yukino 84.57081304
Yaya 78.62289129
Momo Belia Deviluke 72.38456728
stellaShow
Tachibana Kanade 158.2850549
Misaka Mikoto 147.4943806
Shiina Mashiro 133.3039525
Gokō Ruri (Kuroneko) 130.0384915
Aisaka Taiga 119.7153288
Eucliwood Hellscythe 112.1627583
Aragaki Ayase 109.3637233
Shana 101.9140865
Nakano Azusa 101.4483324
Yuzuriha Inori 99.54671873
Akiyama Mio 92.64372398
Yui-nyan 87.6533986
Hasegawa Kobato 82.3596264
Saber 82.06012025
Nakamura Yuri 81.78675241
Suzumiya Haruhi 78.41281202
Please notice that the value is [SWVO-16]^1.75/103.7227

Predict by using SWVO-16
novaShow
Itsuka Kotori 64.62%
Momo Belia Deviluke 35.38%

Tsutsukakushi Tsukiko 51.17%
Yatogami Tōka 48.83%

Yūki Asuna 58.95%
Azuki Azusa 41.05%

Takanashi Rikka 56.10%
Kurousagi 43.90%

Tokisaki Kurumi 62.66%
Yaya 37.34%

Chitanda Eru 51.27%
Aoyama Nanami 48.73%

Yoshino 58.78%
Yukinoshita Yukino 41.22%
stellaShow
Misaka Mikoto 65.29%
Suzumiya Haruhi 34.71%

Shana 50.11%
Nakano Azusa 49.89%

Gokō Ruri (Kuroneko) 61.22%
Hasegawa Kobato 38.78%

Eucliwood Hellscythe 52.98%
Yuzuriha Inori 47.02%

Shiina Mashiro 61.98%
Nakamura Yuri 38.02%

Aragaki Ayase 54.14%
Akiyama Mio 45.86%

Tachibana Kanade 65.86%
Saber 34.14%
Damn Mikoto and Kanade. Leave some hope for everybody else.
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by matchbaby » Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:38 pm

SWVO-8(not by time)
1 Itsuka Kotori 61.4696118
2 Tokisaki Kurumi 60.42125284
3 Yoshino 60.16209594
4 Yūki Asuna 58.13490401
5 Kuroyukihime 55.58004468
6 Tsutsukakushi Tsukiko 54.78703869
7 Takanashi Rikka 54.24950121
8 Chitanda Eru 53.38790444

1 Tachibana Kanade 68.82731975
2 Misaka Mikoto 66.15158037
3 Shiina Mashiro 60.30251809
4 Gokō Ruri (Kuroneko) 59.35877763
5 Aisaka Taiga 57.68650987
6 Eucliwood Hellscythe 55.27693736
7 Aragaki Ayase 54.33936007
8 Shana 52.45107693

SWVO-8(by time)<---which means the weight of Topaz>Ruby>aquamarine
1 Itsuka Kotori 8.772443965
2 Yūki Asuna 8.589396035
3 Tokisaki Kurumi 8.462135576
4 Yoshino 8.264898438
5 Kuroyukihime 7.928578872
6 Tsutsukakushi Tsukiko 7.844587145
7 Takanashi Rikka 7.676872229
8 Chitanda Eru 7.539469068

1 Misaka Mikoto 9.975460489
2 Tachibana Kanade 9.79201631
3 Aisaka Taiga 8.487833186
4 Shiina Mashiro 8.395592358
5 Gokō Ruri (Kuroneko) 8.241043081
6 Eucliwood Hellscythe 7.894893542
7 Aragaki Ayase 7.514424448
8 Shana 7.507198436
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by avery-kun » Fri Aug 22, 2014 2:07 pm

Haha, Taiga just doesn't give up.
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by avery-kun » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:20 pm

maglor wrote:
Vella wrote:
Just wrote:
Vella wrote: So, seriously, do you staff think that the form nowadays are the best? I mean the basic part: 2 divisions with 36 contestants in each, a nova division for 1 and 2 degrees, 35 rounds of Regular Season within 5 periods, playoff in division and then in league.
Suggestions?
I think 72 contestants and 36 matches every round should have reached the process limit of our staff. And considering the schedule, if every period need to be put in seperate months, this is probably the only possible form.

There is this other matter to consider : Can we expect casual voters to make a pick on 50+ arenas on each match days for 30+ match days within 6 month?
Like I said on IRC. A lot of turn out is likely to vote for Tier 1 and Tier 2 girls and is especially concentrated on Tier 1 vs Tier 1 and Tier 1 vs Tier 2 matches. For the necklaces, these are the ones that tend to matter the most, but more importantly, these are the ones where victory is less certain for favorite characters. The other rounds (about 4 out of 7) are of little concern because there is no risk to these girls.

So can we expect casual voters to vote all the time throughout the season? No.
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by Sphire » Fri Aug 22, 2014 11:23 pm

So, after looking at potential outcomes from this swiss-style tourney, my initial conclusion is that it is harder now for someone below the top 8 to break into the top 8 in order to make PS2. In years gone, you'd just have to beat your higher ranked R1 opponent. Now, that higher ranked R1 opponent has a chance to 'reclaim' their spot in the top 8 after losing in R1. On the flip side, this means one round of sniping isn't going to effective. The character wanting to break into the top 8 has to be legit strong, or have someone in the top 8 become legit weak. Another positive is that someone ranked low through reg season, now has a chance at taking on other opponents instead of just succumbing to an obviously strong R1 opponent (case in point, Saber). Still, only a big drop or big increase in strength will see the current top 8 not make it into PS2 all together.

Also interesting, is that characters who finished reg season at numbers 5 and 6 could easily end up at number 8 (or worse), due to how tied positions are determined. This also means that whoever wins the circlet could face a tough opponent from the opposing division (example: Eucliwood could finish 8th, giving the Nova circlet winner a run for her money in R1 PS2). This whole scenario will be hugely affected by most forms of upsets that occur though.

But yea overall, it is slightly tough to break into the top 8 without serious momentum changes. Also, the circlet winner is more or less determined the same way as previous years. These are my initial impressions though, and could be wrong.
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by Yukariko » Sat Aug 23, 2014 6:01 am

I think asuna and mashiro win!
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by Fuijiwara » Sat Aug 23, 2014 7:20 am

Sphire wrote:So, after looking at potential outcomes from this swiss-style tourney, my initial conclusion is that it is harder now for someone below the top 8 to break into the top 8 in order to make PS2. In years gone, you'd just have to beat your higher ranked R1 opponent. Now, that higher ranked R1 opponent has a chance to 'reclaim' their spot in the top 8 after losing in R1. On the flip side, this means one round of sniping isn't going to effective. The character wanting to break into the top 8 has to be legit strong, or have someone in the top 8 become legit weak. Another positive is that someone ranked low through reg season, now has a chance at taking on other opponents instead of just succumbing to an obviously strong R1 opponent (case in point, Saber). Still, only a big drop or big increase in strength will see the current top 8 not make it into PS2 all together.

Also interesting, is that characters who finished reg season at numbers 5 and 6 could easily end up at number 8 (or worse), due to how tied positions are determined. This also means that whoever wins the circlet could face a tough opponent from the opposing division (example: Eucliwood could finish 8th, giving the Nova circlet winner a run for her money in R1 PS2). This whole scenario will be hugely affected by most forms of upsets that occur though.

But yea overall, it is slightly tough to break into the top 8 without serious momentum changes. Also, the circlet winner is more or less determined the same way as previous years. These are my initial impressions though, and could be wrong.
At least we could possibly see interesting match-up instead of expected matches
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by matchbaby » Sat Aug 23, 2014 2:22 pm

After I saw a post in Teiba, I want to ask something.
Assume that Kotori wins Kurumi in the PSI final.
if Asuna wins KYH in the second round and lose to Kotori, Yoshino wins Eru in the second round and lose to Kurumi, the last result of PSI is Asuna,Yoshino,KYH 3W1L, Eru 2W2L, then who, Asuna or Yoshino, will be third?
Is that Asuna because she wins a 3W1L enemy, or Yoshino because her rank is higher in Regular Season?
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by Shmion84 » Sat Aug 23, 2014 3:13 pm

matchbaby wrote:After I saw a post in Teiba, I want to ask something.
Assume that Kotori wins Kurumi in the PSI final.
if Asuna wins KYH in the second round and lose to Kotori, Yoshino wins Eru in the second round and lose to Kurumi, the last result of PSI is Asuna,Yoshino,KYH 3W1L, Eru 2W2L, then who, Asuna or Yoshino, will be third?
Is that Asuna because she wins a 3W1L enemy, or Yoshino because her rank is higher in Regular Season?
Asuna will be third, see rules:
ISML 2014 Charter XIII. C. wrote:At the end of Phase I, Contestants in each Division will be ranked from 1st to 16th by the following procedures:
1. Most wins during Phase I
2. Most wins against Contestants with the same number or greater number of wins within Phase I
3. Regular Season ranking
So ranking:
1) Kotori (4-0)
2) Kurumi (3-1) (1 win against 3-1 Yoshino) (Regular Season #3)
3) Asuna (3-1) (1 win against 3-1 Kuroyukihime) (Regular Season #4)
4) Yoshino (3-1) (Regular Season #2)
5) Kuroyukihime (3-1) (Regular Season #5)
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by Curisu » Sat Aug 23, 2014 3:19 pm

BugH wrote:
SpoilerShow
Pardon me,
before enter the new session
i want to discuss about something

I know it was the right of everybody to pick a vote or abstain
that's why we put abstain choice in arena

but...
i want to ask about admin (in FB) had posted
because, i saw many abstain at his/her votes

question
Is it right to admins to show a lot of abstain when posted his/her votes in FP ?
we aren't talking about one or two abstained arena(s)

related to my question, i want to suggest :
Admin has tasks to encourage the voters (in FB) to pick their choice and minimize the chance of abstain
i don't care if it will be pict. vote or something
so, please, at least show some passion to vote
for the sake of the voters in FP

once again, it your right to abstain
but please consider my suggestion

sorry for the rudeness of mine
but really, i just concern about ISML future
I believed that admins should show their votes in their own pages instead of ISML official page.
Vella wrote:
Just wrote:
Vella wrote: So, seriously, do you staff think that the form nowadays are the best? I mean the basic part: 2 divisions with 36 contestants in each, a nova division for 1 and 2 degrees, 35 rounds of Regular Season within 5 periods, playoff in division and then in league.
Suggestions?
I think 72 contestants and 36 matches every round should have reached the process limit of our staff. And considering the schedule, if every period need to be put in seperate months, this is probably the only possible form.
Change the RS to Swiss-System and increase the gap between every matches
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by yuguotianqing12 » Sat Aug 23, 2014 7:08 pm

I just wish the best to Kurumi and Taiga.
Love and Peace
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by matchbaby » Sun Aug 24, 2014 3:29 am

Shmion84 wrote:
matchbaby wrote:After I saw a post in Teiba, I want to ask something.
Assume that Kotori wins Kurumi in the PSI final.
if Asuna wins KYH in the second round and lose to Kotori, Yoshino wins Eru in the second round and lose to Kurumi, the last result of PSI is Asuna,Yoshino,KYH 3W1L, Eru 2W2L, then who, Asuna or Yoshino, will be third?
Is that Asuna because she wins a 3W1L enemy, or Yoshino because her rank is higher in Regular Season?
Asuna will be third, see rules:
ISML 2014 Charter XIII. C. wrote:At the end of Phase I, Contestants in each Division will be ranked from 1st to 16th by the following procedures:
1. Most wins during Phase I
2. Most wins against Contestants with the same number or greater number of wins within Phase I
3. Regular Season ranking
So ranking:
1) Kotori (4-0)
2) Kurumi (3-1) (1 win against 3-1 Yoshino) (Regular Season #3)
3) Asuna (3-1) (1 win against 3-1 Kuroyukihime) (Regular Season #4)
4) Yoshino (3-1) (Regular Season #2)
5) Kuroyukihime (3-1) (Regular Season #5)
OK, Thanks.
Then, maybe I need to increase the chance of Asuna winning tiara as I was assuming Asuna is 4th in Nova
--------------------------------------
I have a follow-up question on this.
2. Most wins against Contestants with the same number or greater number of wins within Phase I
For example, two character is 3W1L in the PSI, A wins a 3W1L(not B) and two 1W3L, and B wins three 2W2L, the total wins of A's opponent is less than B, but A's strongest opponent is strong than B, then who, A or B, will be in higher rank to PS2?

Also, for the match arena, the grouping is based on having same wins and largest ranking difference,
I want to ask, the "largest ranking difference" is based on regular season's ranking or just in PS1(the quote)?
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by maglor » Sun Aug 24, 2014 7:05 am

matchbaby wrote:
Shmion84 wrote:
matchbaby wrote:After I saw a post in Teiba, I want to ask something.
Assume that Kotori wins Kurumi in the PSI final.
if Asuna wins KYH in the second round and lose to Kotori, Yoshino wins Eru in the second round and lose to Kurumi, the last result of PSI is Asuna,Yoshino,KYH 3W1L, Eru 2W2L, then who, Asuna or Yoshino, will be third?
Is that Asuna because she wins a 3W1L enemy, or Yoshino because her rank is higher in Regular Season?
Asuna will be third, see rules:
ISML 2014 Charter XIII. C. wrote:At the end of Phase I, Contestants in each Division will be ranked from 1st to 16th by the following procedures:
1. Most wins during Phase I
2. Most wins against Contestants with the same number or greater number of wins within Phase I
3. Regular Season ranking
So ranking:
1) Kotori (4-0)
2) Kurumi (3-1) (1 win against 3-1 Yoshino) (Regular Season #3)
3) Asuna (3-1) (1 win against 3-1 Kuroyukihime) (Regular Season #4)
4) Yoshino (3-1) (Regular Season #2)
5) Kuroyukihime (3-1) (Regular Season #5)
OK, Thanks.
Then, maybe I need to increase the chance of Asuna winning tiara as I was assuming Asuna is 4th in Nova
--------------------------------------
I have a follow-up question on this.
2. Most wins against Contestants with the same number or greater number of wins within Phase I
For example, two character is 3W1L in the PSI, A wins a 3W1L(not B) and two 1W3L, and B wins three 2W2L, the total wins of A's opponent is less than B, but A's strongest opponent is strong than B, then who, A or B, will be in higher rank to PS2?

Also, for the match arena, the grouping is based on having same wins and largest ranking difference,
I want to ask, the "largest ranking difference" is based on regular season's ranking or just in PS1(the quote)?
Question 1. It will be A. The reason why tie breaker was decided in such a way is related to the answer to question 2 in a way.
Question 2. The true answer is PSI ranking at that moment, but because almost everyone will meet with characters of same number of win, it would be rare that condition 2 will make a meaningful difference before we get to decide the final ranking, thus it will usually be based on regular season's ranking.
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