2014 Postseason general discussion thread

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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by Fuijiwara » Fri Sep 12, 2014 10:19 am

Hajime Tanegashima wrote:Forum voting is biased due to campaigning for the lower ranked characters, exactly like happened in your previous post. Of course upsets can happen, but forum results aren't an effective way to predict final voting results (it would be boring if it were).



You do realise that my motive was to see what the forum likes. Not the actual results that could happen.


Seriously, I know you love Kurumi and all, but if you want to criticize this as well, I seriously think you're overdoing it
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by Hajime Tanegashima » Fri Sep 12, 2014 10:23 am

I'm just pointing a truth that you too admit, even if obvious. I wouldn't even call it criticizing. It's you who might be overreacting. You should chill.
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by smartboyhw » Fri Sep 12, 2014 10:32 am

There's NO single vote count that can be treated as the expected results (not even Baidu, I have seen too many examples of it being not accurate or even way too off). Not the forum votes, not the FB plugin votes that we have on the home page, only the OFFICIAL results posted at 11:00 UTC after the match day counts. But please remember the purpose of the creation of the campaign thread and this general discussion thread. I don't want to see any more direct insults, and I don't want to see people always hashing at others. It's VERY, VERY annoying.
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by Hajime Tanegashima » Fri Sep 12, 2014 10:41 am

Hm? Are you referring to me or to Fuijiwara?

Fuijiwara posted a vote count and tehyc asked if it really was happening that all four semifinals ended in upset. Then I intervened to remind the bias of the vote counts, nothing more.
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by BugH » Fri Sep 12, 2014 10:47 am

Fuijiwara wrote:I seriously think you're overdoing it
Hajime Tanegashima wrote:You should chill.
smartboyhw wrote:I don't want to see any more direct insults, and I don't want to see people always hashing at others. It's VERY, VERY annoying.
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by Fuijiwara » Fri Sep 12, 2014 10:53 am

Hajime Tanegashima wrote:Hm? Are you referring to me or to Fuijiwara?

Fuijiwara posted a vote count and tehyc asked if it really was happening that all four semifinals ended in upset. Then I intervened to remind the bias of the vote counts, nothing more.

I do realise it is bias, but you dont understand the intention.This voting was to allow people to see how the forum rates their characters. And tehyc's question is innocent.
Your tone sounds as if you were directly insulting what I was doing. So obviously I would misinterpret
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by Hajime Tanegashima » Fri Sep 12, 2014 11:09 am

My tone was insulting?

I just talked about the bias caused by the support of many of the most regular posters to lower ranked characters. That couple by the hype of the previous round's upsets would explain why in all four semifinals the lower ranked character is being more voted in the forum, nothing else. Of course I referred to your previous post so people could compare those results with what really happened. This time, results will probably be even more different because the campaigning in the forums for the weaker ranked characters is more intense.

I have no idea how innocent (what does "innocent" mean here?) is tehyc's question, but reading it I thought many people might misunderstand what was happened and I pointed it out, nothing else. IMHO and without any will to polemicize, I felt you overreacted, and I answered the most politely possible. Not politely enough, if we are to trust BugH's judgement. Well, sorry for that, it wasn't my intention.

As a friendly suggestion, I reccomend you wholeheartedly to remind the null predictive value of forum voting next time in any further similar post. That would avoid misunderstanding in the future.
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by Fuijiwara » Fri Sep 12, 2014 11:15 am

Except I can just tell them about it.


You just complicated it just when I was about to tell them.
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by maglor » Fri Sep 12, 2014 11:16 am

Fuijiwara wrote:Postseason Round 3 - Forum Votes

Total Vote Tally:42(As of now)

Arena 1- Tsutsukakushi Tsukiko - 25
Yuuki Asuna-17

Arena 2 - Tokisaki Kurumi - 18
Aoyama Nanami - 22
Abstain-2

Arena 3 - Yatogami Tōka - 17
Yoshino - 22
Abstain-3

Arena 4 - Nibutani Shinka - 23
Takanashi Rikka - 15
Abstain-4

Arena 5 - Kurousagi-17
Kuroyukihime-24
Abstain-1

Arena 6 - Chitanda Eru - 20
Itsuka Kotori - 22

Arena 7 - Momo Belia Devilure - 9
Azuki Azusa - 29
Abstain-3

Arena 8 - Yaya - 17
Yukinoshita Yukino - 23
Abstain-24

Arena 9 - Misaka Mikoto - 12
Aisaka Taiga - 27
Abstain-3

Arena 10 - Shiina Mashiro - 26
Tachibana Kanade - 16

Arena 11 - Nakano Azusa - 30
Aragaki Ayase - 10
Abstain-2

Arena 12 - Yui-Nyan- 26
Eucliwood Hellscythe - 16

Arena 13 - Yuzuhira Inori - 14
Gokou Ruri ( Kuroneko ) - 26
Abstain-2

Arena 14 - Akiyama Mio - 21
Shana - 19
Abstain-2

Arena 15 - Suzumiya Haruhi - 21
Hasegawa Kobato - 19
Abstain-2

Arena 16 - Nakamura Yuri - 27
Saber-14
Abstain-1
Any updates on this? I cross check interim results with forum counts like this, keeping in my what bias that forum historically had. What is of most interest to me is how the trend shifted from forum's historical trend, for if the interim result and forum count shows similar shift away from their old status quo, I can rest easier knowing that these changes are more likely to be due to real changes in public opinions.
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by Hajime Tanegashima » Fri Sep 12, 2014 11:19 am

Why not to say it in the post itself, then?

In any case, I repeat I just explained something that some people might have been confused about with my best intention, nothing else.
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by Veon » Fri Sep 12, 2014 12:41 pm

I try to analyze another fenomen.
How many people voted for both characters (for example Tsukiko and Nanami, Kurumi and Asuna etc.) in Nova?
Based on 51 forum votes.

Tsukiko/Nanami - 12
Tsukiko/Kurumi - 17
Asuna/Nanami - 13
Asuna/Kurumi - 7
Tsukiko/Abstain - 2

If this could happen also on larger scale then is the chance that we would see Tsukiko and Nanami in final.
Asuna fans declared in last matches open war to DaL fans. If DaL want take a revenge, than they would probably voted for Tsukiko (maybe they don't have a reason to together voted for Kurumi, but they have a reason to anti-vote Asuna). Asuna fans would probably continue their strategy to anti-vote Kurumi.
Which could make a situation where their fans just kill each other.
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by Fuijiwara » Fri Sep 12, 2014 12:54 pm

Also, here is how I rank the 16 characters from each divison for now, based on their VD

The VD is based on their two rounds so far

Nova
1.Yuuki Asuna VD:2892 (2W)
2.Tokisaki Kurumi VD:2167 (2W)
3.Tsutsukakushi Tsukiko VD:514 (2W)
4.Aoyama Nanami VD:466 (2W)
5.Itsuka Kotori VD:1295(1W1L)
6.Chitanda Eru VD:477 (1W1L)
7.Yoshino VD:425 (1W1L)
8.Takanashi Rikka VD:285(1W1L)
9.Kurousagi VD:-114 (1W1L)
10.Yatogami Tohka VD:-118 (1W1L)
11.Nibutani Shinka VD:-274 (1W1L)
12.Kuroyukihime VD:-593 (1W1L)
13.Yukinoshita Yukino VD:-1368 (2L)
14.Momo Belia Devilure VD:-1691 (2L)
15.Azuki Azusa VD:-2025(2L)
16.Yaya VD:-2335 (2L)

A noticeable thing is that KYH loss to Asuna really dragged her down so much.
Also in that Eru is still at the top despite a loss against Nanami.
Yaya's huge loss to Kurumi also dragged her downh all the way to last
Stella
1.Tachibana Kanade VD:2584 (2W)
2.Misaka Mikoto VD:2423 (2W)
3.Shiina Mashiro VD:1816 (2W)
4.Aisaka Taiga VD:1336 (2W)
5.Gokou Ruri VD:992 (1W1L)
6.Nakano Azusa VD:112 (1W1L)
7.Akiyama Mio VD:-133 (1W1L)
8.Eucliwood Hellscythe VD:-165 (1W1L)
9.Yuzuhira Inori VD:416 (1W1L)
10.Shana VD:-469 (1W1L)
11.Aragaki Ayase VD:-601 (1W1L)
12.Yui-nyan VD:976 (1W1L)
13.Nakamura Yuri VD:-1235 (2L)
14.Hasegawa Kobato VD:-1289 (2L)
15.Saber VD:-1850 (2L)
16.Suzumiya Haruhi VD:-2066 (2L)

K-ON VD is rather small, allowing both at the top 8, while Ayase loss' to Kanade was really a dragger.
Haruhi and Saber remain the same eitherway along with Kanade and Mikoto at the top.
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by avery-kun » Fri Sep 12, 2014 6:39 pm

I wonder if our numbers will increase today. I had hope for an average arena VF of around 6300 Tuesday, but it was a several hundred votes short. If we jump to around 7000 - 7300 today, then I think we'll be in good condition going into finals and Phase II. But if it falls too short, we may see a disappointing Tiara turnout.

Remember, that in 2013 Tiara match day, we had more votes from losers (just the loser) than we are getting in high profile arenas total VF right now. And at this point last year, we were hovering around 9500 arena VF in our matches.
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by avery-kun » Fri Sep 12, 2014 7:13 pm

Kotori's lost is interesting.
Yes, this is Post Season, where uncoordinated attacks are most likely, effective, and devastating. However, I didn't think Kotori would be as susceptible to such an until she hit Asuna.

Is this a unusual boost to Nanami? Maybe, but she seems more like a tool than anything.
Was this an early test by Asuna? Possible, little risk in doing this. I don't know if Kurumi is most inclined to avenge Kotori and Kotori seems to have a loyalty deficit. So maybe Asuna doesn't fear anti-voting.
Did Mikoto/Kanade feel that should play round with Nova? I'd like to think they don't have to reason to, but those with knowledge have proposed this. If anything, Asuna/DAL messing with Kanade/Mikoto would make more sense. Force those two into the same half of the bracket, causing them to meet in semi-finals, make them kill each other early and exhaust the winner before Tiara match.
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by RailWarrior » Fri Sep 12, 2014 8:08 pm

Fuijiwara wrote:16.Suzumiya Haruhi VD:-2066 (2L)
My day has been made.
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by 10ZHAbin » Sat Sep 13, 2014 3:00 am

Am I doing this right?
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by RegalStar » Sat Sep 13, 2014 4:14 am

Qualification status post, first edition. Note that I have to run scenarios in my head because there's no real way to autonomate it and still have it easy to visualize, so please help me check for errors.

Nova:

Yoshino - both wins are against opponents with only one win so far, but those two opponents (Yukino and Touka) are up against each other in the next match. She is guaranteed to qualify regardless of circumstances.

Tsukiko - already has one win against an opponent with two wins (Kotori), and one win against an opponent with one win (Touka). The only scenarios that would result in her not qualifying involve she losing to Yoshino, Yukino winning against Touka, and Eru winning against Azusa all happening at once.

Rikka - both wins are against opponents with only one win, but those two opponents (Shinka and Kurousagi) are up against each other in the next match. She is guaranteed to qualify regardless of circumstances.

Kuroyukihime - same as Rikka.

Kotori - Has one win against an opponent with one win (Eru), and another with an opponent with zero wins (Momo). If she loses and Eru loses, she is out. If either she wins, or Eru wins, she is in.

Kurumi - Has one win against an opponent with two wins and a high regular season ranking. Guaranteed to qualify regardless of circumstances.

Eru - She has only one win so far, but it's not impossible for her to qualify yet. If she wins against Azusa, Yukino wins against Touka, and Tsukiko loses to Yoshino, then she is in, otherwise she is out.

Shinka - She has only one win so far, but it's not impossible for her to qualify yet. If she wins against Kurousagi, Azusa wins against Eru, and Kotori loses to Kurumi, then she will qualify. Otherwise she is out.

Stella:

Ayase - Has one win against an opponent with two wins already and have sufficient regular season ranking. Will qualify regardless of circumstances.

Taiga - Same as Ayase

Eucliwood - Both wins are against one-win characters who will face each other next round, so will advance regardless of circumstances.

Kuroneko - Both wins are against one-win characters, but they do not face each other next round. Will not qualify if she loses to Eucliwood, Kobato loses to Shana, Inori loses to Yui, and Azusa wins against Saber. If any of the above four does not happen she will qualify.

Mio - Both wins are against one-win characters, but they do not face each other next round. If she loses to Mashiro, and either a) Shana loses to Kobato and Azusa wins against Saber, OR b) Shana wins against Kobato, Azusa wins against Saber and Inori wins against Yui, OR c) Shana loses to Kobato, Azusa loses to Saber and Yui wins against Inori then she will not qualify. If none of the above applies, then she is in.

Mashiro - Has one win against a two-win character already. Will advance regardless of circumstances.

Shana - Will qualify if she wins against Kobato and Azusa wins againt Saber, and either a) Mashiro wins against Mio, or b) Eucliwood wins against Kuroneko and Yui wins against Inori. Otherwise she is out.

Azusa - Will qualify if she wins against Saber, Shana loses to Kobato, Yui loses to Inori and Mashiro wins against Mio. Otherwise she is out.

Yui-nyan - Will qualify if she wins against Inori, Kobato wins against Shana, and Azusa wins against Saber. Otherwise she is out.
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by Sphire » Sat Sep 13, 2014 6:38 am

So, looking at RegalStar's post,

In Nova: Asuna, Nanami, Yoshino, Kurumi, Rikka and Kuroyukihime have qualified no matter what happens. That leaves 2 open slots being fought between Kotori, Tsukiko, Eru and Shinka. Kotori looks likely to enter, given that while she may lose her own match, Eru looks a strong favourite to win her own match. An Eru win puts Kotori through. Tsukiko (if she loses) still has a chance of not making it in favour of Eru. Shinka going through would be together with Tsukiko and at the expense of Kotori and Eru.

In Stella: Mikoto, Kanade, Taiga, Ayase, Eucliwood and Mashiro have qualified no matter what happens. That leaves 2 open slots being fought between Kuroneko, Mio, Shana, Azusa and Yui-nyan. Kuroneko is actually in a dangerous position, as while it needs 4 specific outcomes to happen together, they are all very possible. Still, she just needs to win her own match, but she has been kinda weak lately. Shana on the other hand, looks an easy bet to qualify. Mio would be the one taking advantage of any slip up by Kuroneko. The rest seem unlikely to enter given the requirements, of which Shana losing is one.
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by Shmion84 » Sat Sep 13, 2014 8:18 am

RegalStar wrote:Qualification status post, first edition. Note that I have to run scenarios in my head because there's no real way to autonomate it and still have it easy to visualize, so please help me check for errors.

Nova:
Kotori - Has one win against an opponent with one win (Eru), and another with an opponent with zero wins (Momo). If she loses and Eru loses, she is out. If either she wins, or Eru wins, she is in.
Itsuka Kotori is out if she loses, and Chitanda Eru loses, and Nibutani Shinka wins. Opposite of Nibutani Shinka's chances for qualification. To illustrate the Nova fight for the last two qualification spots:

Image

Stella is more complicated. Crucial match is Saber vs Nakano Azusa:

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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by maglor » Sat Sep 13, 2014 12:30 pm

Shmion84 wrote:
RegalStar wrote:Qualification status post, first edition. Note that I have to run scenarios in my head because there's no real way to autonomate it and still have it easy to visualize, so please help me check for errors.

Nova:
Kotori - Has one win against an opponent with one win (Eru), and another with an opponent with zero wins (Momo). If she loses and Eru loses, she is out. If either she wins, or Eru wins, she is in.
Itsuka Kotori is out if she loses, and Chitanda Eru loses, and Nibutani Shinka wins. Opposite of Nibutani Shinka's chances for qualification. To illustrate the Nova fight for the last two qualification spots:

Image

Stella is more complicated. Crucial match is Saber vs Nakano Azusa:

Image
Thanks.
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