2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Single-Elimination Tournament and future ISML contests
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by Momento10 » Sat Sep 13, 2014 4:13 pm

I needed Shmion84's post so badly, as I was trying to figure out all these things in my head in terms of qualification.

So, as long as Nakano Azusa wins, Shana wins, Gokou Ruri wins, and Akiyama Mio loses, the people who qualify for PS2 is the same as the Top 8. Nova has a different Top 8 from RS by default (Aoyama Nanami), so it's more of who she is going to replace.

On a side note, I do hope that these numbers do not continue on at Round 4 and the race to the tiara. That would be a considerable drop in people in comparison to last year.
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by avery-kun » Sat Sep 13, 2014 5:34 pm

I've created a little tool to help with determining who qualifies.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The spreadsheet is locked, but you can make a copy via File -> Make a copy to edit your own copy and play around how wins in round 4 will affect the rankings. Or you can download an Excel version.

To change the winners, under the Winner Index Column (column E), change the number to either 1 or 2. 1 makes the Girl 1 (left girl) the winner, 2 makes Girl 2 the winner.

On the right is a table that shows the current stats the affect the ranking. The "Score" is merely a way to simplify creating the "Rank" column and sorting.

If I understood everything correctly. The ranking is determined by
1) Number of wins
2) Number of wins of defeated opponents Most wins against Contestants with the same number or greater number of wins within Phase I
3) Ranking from Regular Season.
Last edited by avery-kun on Sat Sep 13, 2014 6:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by Shmion84 » Sat Sep 13, 2014 6:40 pm

avery-kun wrote:I've created a little tool to help with determining who qualifies.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Thanks for sharing. I'm afraid you have to change the spreadsheet.
avery-kun wrote:If I understood everything correctly. The ranking is determined by
1) Number of wins
2) Number of wins of defeated opponents
3) Ranking from Regular Season.
2 is actually "Most wins against Contestants with the same number or greater number of wins within Phase I".

Using your Stella Spreadsheet as example:
- Misaka Mikoto would have no win against contestants with the same number or greater number of wins within Phase I, because she would the only character with 4 (or more) wins.
- Tachibana Kanade would have one win against contestants with the same number or greater number of wins within Phase I, because she has defeated Shiina Mashiro, who would have also achieved 3 wins.
- In case Shiina Mashiro would lose to Akiyama Mio in Round 4, Tachibana Kanade would have no win against contestants with the same number or greater number of wins within Phase I.
Another exampleShow
For a character with three wins in Postseason I you count her wins against characters with three or more wins as a tie breaker.
For a character with two wins in Postseason I you count her wins against characters with two or more wins as a tie breaker.

Akiyama Mio has won against Saber (currently 1 win) and against Shana (currently 1 win).
- Assuming she would win against Shiina Mashiro (currently 2 wins) she would have three wins at all. Saber, Shana and Shiina Mashiro would have not more than two wins. So Akiyama Mio would have no win against contestants with three or more wins within Postseason I. Therefore her tie breaker would be 0.
- Assuming she would lost to Shiina Mashiro and Saber and Shana would also lost their matches, Akiyama Mio would still have two wins and Saber and Shana would have not more than one win. So Akiyama Mio would have no win against contestants with two or more wins within Postseason I. Therefore her tie braker would be 0.
- Assuming Akiyama Mio would lost to Shiina Mashiro and Saber and Shana would win their matches, Akiyama Mio would still have two wins, but Saber and Shana would also have two wins. In this case Akiyama Mio would have two wins against contestants with two or more wins within Posteason I. Therefore her tie breaker would be 2.
Last edited by Shmion84 on Sat Sep 13, 2014 7:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by avery-kun » Sat Sep 13, 2014 7:02 pm

Shmion84 wrote:
avery-kun wrote:I've created a little tool to help with determining who qualifies.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Thanks for sharing. I'm afraid you have to change the spreadsheet.
avery-kun wrote:If I understood everything correctly. The ranking is determined by
1) Number of wins
2) Number of wins of defeated opponents
3) Ranking from Regular Season.
2 is actually "Most wins against Contestants with the same number or greater number of wins within Phase I".

Using your Stella Spreadsheet as example:
- Misaka Mikoto would have no win against contestants with the same number or greater number of wins within Phase I, because she would the only character with 4 (or more) wins.
- Tachibana Kanade would have one win against contestants with the same number or greater number of wins within Phase I, because she has defeated Shiina Mashiro, who would have also achieved 3 wins.
- In case Shiina Mashiro would lose to Akiyama Mio in Round 4, Tachibana Kanade would have no win against contestants with the same number or greater number of wins within Phase I.
Think i fixed it.
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by Shmion84 » Sat Sep 13, 2014 7:05 pm

avery-kun wrote:Think i fixed it.
Yes, looks fine now.
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by avery-kun » Mon Sep 15, 2014 1:11 am

I've gone through the records, and I could be wrong, but it doesn't look like Nanami has ever won anything. Ever. No bracelets or anything. She hasn't even competed. I couldn't find if she has ever been in any necklace/bracelets match, ever. Her only notable appearance was twice in 2012 Exhibitions. She won against some relative unknowns, but was then crushed by Rikka in the following round.

A Nanami win her could put her in some kind of ISML history book, as the "Greatest Underdog to Win a Major Jewelry" or something.
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by tehyc » Mon Sep 15, 2014 1:19 am

avery-kun wrote:I've gone through the records, and I could be wrong, but it doesn't look like Nanami has ever won anything. Ever. No bracelets or anything. She hasn't even competed. I couldn't find if she has ever been in any necklace/bracelets match, ever. Her only notable appearance was twice in 2012 Exhibitions. She won against some relative unknowns, but was then crushed by Rikka in the following round.

A Nanami win her could put her in some kind of ISML history book, as the "Greatest Underdog to Win a Major Jewelry" or something.
So it's win or nothing for her huh...?
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by Midnight-Jasper » Mon Sep 15, 2014 2:03 am

I am so so glad Nanami slipped past Chitanda Shitanda ho ho ho ho by 59 votes in day one because if not it probably would have been her in the running for Nova Queen.

maglor wrote:I think the most interesting match of tomorrow is the Chitanda Eru vs Aoyama Nanami . Eru came close to breaking into Tier 1 level during late part of regular season, thus she may be stronger than her numbers suggest. Furthermore, she can help Oreki Hotaro defend his Male Championship crown. Aoyama Nanami isn't fighting only for her chance, but to help Shiina Mashiro. Conversely, it would be in Mashiro fans' interest to have Nanami do well in Phase I. Nanami also is one of the girls whose real strength might have improved late in the regular season, though some unlucky matchups may have obscured this. The winner of this match will meet Yoshino or Yukino, both of whom showed signs of struggle against Nice-wholesome-girl types who are also popular, so their fans might try to influence the outcome of this match as well.
Moeglor just can't help being the ultimate troll.

http://archive.internationalsaimoe.com/ ... p_x1-7.gif" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
And for those who love complaining about Chinese Asuna fans, if Nanami wins it'll have been Korea not-East/SE-Asia that put her there sort of in a very indirect interpretation
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by Shmion84 » Tue Sep 16, 2014 5:36 am

K-irONy! If Nakano Azusa had lost her match, Akiyama Mio would have been qualified for Postseason II. Instead, both went OUT.
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by Hajime Tanegashima » Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:11 am

By the way, aren't both Asuna and Nanami going to Stella next year? Past year, Mashiro was granted a place in the Stella preliminaries because she won the Nova Circlet. Now, since both the winner and runner up are going to Stella anyway (unless I'm wrong), will Kurumi take that place, or is this year that place "void"?
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by smartboyhw » Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:13 am

Hajime Tanegashima wrote:By the way, aren't both Asuna and Nanami going to Stella next year? Past year, Mashiro was granted a place in the Stella preliminaries because she won the Nova Circlet. Now, since both the winner and runner up are going to Stella anyway (unless I'm wrong), will Kurumi take that place, or is this year that place "void"?
The ISML 2014 Charter states that if you have won a Circlet or the Tiara or have participated in ISML Regular Season for two years, then you will have to move to Stella Division. If not, you will stay in Nova Division. So unless Kurumi wins Tiara, she will stay in Nova next year. So to your question, the answer is the latter, in the case that the Tiara champion is not won by a first-year. Take note that Mashiro has to go through nominations this year to enter the Stella preliminaries.
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by Hajime Tanegashima » Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:18 am

Ah, I see. Thank you.
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by Sphire » Tue Sep 16, 2014 11:49 am

So, neutrals (I'll leave the interpretation of who a neutral is up in the air), who do you wish to back in PS2? I think it is safe to say that most if not all neutrals would prefer a new winner for the Tiara, so who will you get behind?

The obvious first choice would be Yuki Asuna. She legit won the Sapphire circlet with a decent fanbase that with the help of us neutrals, could potentially topple Mikoto and Kanade (note, based on PS2 brackets, there's a chance she'd have to go through both). She looks to be the strongest of the 'no previous Tiara' group. This could change in PS2 obviously, but she still puts a strong case for support. She also has an airing anime, meaning she could rally more support as the tourney progresses. The downside being the assumed, fully legit strategical voting in Nova PS1. This means many fans of other girls will likely not throw support her way, possibly even towards a previous Tiara winner. I will say in Asuna's defense (and I'm no fan of Asuna or SAO), she has been anti-voted too (assumed, but still), the most recent being her lost to Kuroyukihime in Ruby 7. Asuna generally owns Hime (as much as it hurts me), so to lose there was a massive surprise. So yes, assumed anti-voting took placed against Asuna. So, she has been a victim herself. To say otherwise, would propose that Asuna fans voted for Hime to win, which would only make me want to return the favour now. That Ruby necklace picture is glorious.

So, I feel Asuna is our strongest challenger to the previous Tiara winners. However, I put forth the surprise performer of PS as another potential candidate. Aoyama Nanami, by virtue of her performance, has a golden chance to make at least the semis. Her route is the easiest towards the semis (not saying it's easy, just that it's the easiest), based on PS1 results. So throwing support her way, and maintaining the miracle would be awesome. The main downside is that she has no hardcore fanbase, meaning she could lose at any given time. She also doesn't have any new anime material. Still, that's why it would be a miracle. She doesn't even have to face Mashiro either (unless they meet each other in the final, which would be awesome in and of itself).

I'd argue those are the only two viable candidates, at least right now they are. What about other Stella characters? Well, they showed their weakness in Stella PS1, so can they really step up in PS2? Neither Mashiro, Taiga, Eucliwood nor Ayase have any new material that could see them gain fans and overtake Mikoto or Kanade. In fact, I see them as safe votes for Mikoto and Kanade fans. Nothing has convinced me otherwise, although I'll still likely vote for some of them (esp since I love Ayase <3 ). I'd love to get behind Mashiro, but would she be a better pick over Asuna (if they both win)?

What about DAL characters? Well, they failed in Nova PS1, and now all 3 face tough round 1 matches, and all could lose. They aren't in an obvious strong round 1 position (like Asuna, Mashiro or Nanami even), and they aren't facing previous winners, so it's kind of mixed up right now.

I think that leaves Kuroyukihime. She starts off against a former champion, but a noticeably weaker one. Even if she won, the other 2 former champions could stand directly in her way. She has the toughest route to the finals, but is available for all the 'not previous Tiara winner' votes. A victory in round 1 could see her face Kanade again similar to PS2 last year, and maybe do better this time. Her's would be a miracle run, and those are exciting!

I should probably mention that there is at least a small chance for both Yoshino and Rikka. And I guess we could start there, since that would take care of former winners. So there's that for them. I'm just not confident in their strength.

To be fair, I'm finding it hard to see anything other than a Mikoto vs Kanade final. So anything outside of that would be welcome, though if that is what we get, it'll still be explosive.

Any other neutral want to chip in?
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by Momento10 » Tue Sep 16, 2014 2:00 pm

As your post suggest, it really does seem as though Yuuki Asuna is the only one who appears favorable enough to be the next Tiara bearer assuming no repeat. This is, of course, does not mention my fear of seeing only one or two nova pass to the second round, if at all...
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by avery-kun » Tue Sep 16, 2014 2:40 pm

Kurumi appears to be a divider. She is strong, but she can't get that crucial part of the vote that should vote for her, but doesn't.

Kotori appears to be the preferred choice of those who choose not to vote for Kurumi, but they'll happily go for Asuna.

Mikoto is following her usual routine, albeit a little better than last year, of beating Kanade in RS, but then not bothering to rally again. Also, the staff's ability to kill multi-votes may have hurt her more than anybody. Her failure in Diamond combined with her usually unstable performance may make her susceptible to early anti-voting attempts. Mikoto is probably the most reliant, of any girl, on voters who vote specifically for her and her interest. If they decide to not turn up anymore, her chances at Tiara may range from slim to none.

Kanade, is Kanade. She is strong. She is, by default, the most likely to win and toughest opponent. However, she has about two or three groups of anti-voters that are the obvious reason she most likely won't win. However, said groups may split if Mikoto is in the finals with her. Kanade also has the benefit of being on the half of the bracket with no serious contenders.

Asuna both is and is not an underdog for Tiara. She has always had the Tier 1 strength, but this year it initially looked like she would remain behind DAL and would at best rival Rikka. That all changed by time Ruby ended. DAL had already been showing that it neither had a strong base nor coalition within itself. Asuna noticed this power vacuum, and after Kurumi's failure in Ruby, Asuna took charge. Fortunately for her, she will likely have the defacto support of anti-repeat Tiara voters and pro-Nova voters, as well as some additional support from otherwise neutral voters who saw her take Sapphire. Unfortunately, she is on the same bracket as Mikoto and Kurumi. If she was hoping for an easy ride to the finals, she was poorly mistaken.
----------------------------------------------

Yoshino was likely riding the Kotori bandwagon, but that trip has ended.
Mashiro doesn't have a strong enough loyalty base. Allowing Shana to almost stop her Topaz necklace proved that.
Tsutsukakushi may be a wildcard next year. but she doesn't have the strong base either. However, her beating Yoshino was maybe what she needed for next year.
Ayase is happy to ride along.
Kuroneko is happy to ride along.
Eucliwood is weird, but happy to ride along.
KYH is happy to ride along.
Nanami can prove if she was more than a tool by winning in R1. However, long term she may still be stuck. She is happy to ride along.
Rikka has the worst luck right now.
Last edited by avery-kun on Tue Sep 16, 2014 7:17 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by progheal » Tue Sep 16, 2014 3:09 pm

Hmm, it seems that avery-kun's spreadsheet has some Round 4 result wrong:
Nova: Tsukiko wins against Yoshino, Kuroyukihime wins against Rikka, Shinka wins against Kurousagi;
Stella: Kanade wins against Mikoto, Yuri wins against Haruhi.

The Division order, as calculated by my Excel spreadsheet, should be:
Nova - Asuna, Nanami, Kurumi, Kuroyukihime, Tsukiko, Kotori, Yoshino, Rikka; Eru, Touka, Shinka, Kurousagi, Yukino, Azusa, Yaya, Momo
Stella - Kanade, Mikoto, Taiga, Mashiro, Ruri, Ayase, Eucliwood, Shana; Mio, Azusa, Inori, Yui-nyan, Saber, Kobato, Yuri, Haruhi

This order of top 8 (delimited by semicolon above) is consistent with the schedule released in the statistic page.
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by avery-kun » Tue Sep 16, 2014 3:28 pm

progheal wrote:Hmm, it seems that avery-kun's spreadsheet has some Round 4 result wrong:
Nova: Tsukiko wins against Yoshino, Kuroyukihime wins against Rikka, Shinka wins against Kurousagi;
Stella: Kanade wins against Mikoto, Yuri wins against Haruhi.

The Division order, as calculated by my Excel spreadsheet, should be:
Nova - Asuna, Nanami, Kurumi, Kuroyukihime, Tsukiko, Kotori, Yoshino, Rikka; Eru, Touka, Shinka, Kurousagi, Yukino, Azusa, Yaya, Momo
Stella - Kanade, Mikoto, Taiga, Mashiro, Ruri, Ayase, Eucliwood, Shana; Mio, Azusa, Inori, Yui-nyan, Saber, Kobato, Yuri, Haruhi

This order of top 8 (delimited by semicolon above) is consistent with the schedule released in the statistic page.
To note. The spreadsheet was only updated to Round 3. If you change the winners for round 4, you get correct rankings for Phase II. The Round 4 rankings were what I thought would be the results before hand.
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by Progeusz » Tue Sep 16, 2014 5:56 pm

This is bad, really bad...

Kanade has to HOPE Mikoto advances to final if she wants to win. Killing Asuna or Mashiro would certainly be possible for Kanade in early stages but in the Tiara match the anti-repeat crowd would be deciding factor.
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by Fuijiwara » Tue Sep 16, 2014 11:18 pm

Actually, both would be ANTI-voted either way since they are both candidates for repeat Tiaras.

Also, is it just me or has Taiga actually grown stronger again?
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Re: 2014 Postseason general discussion thread

Post by avery-kun » Tue Sep 16, 2014 11:40 pm

Fuijiwara wrote:Actually, both would be ANTI-voted either way since they are both candidates for repeat Tiaras.

Also, is it just me or has Taiga actually grown stronger again?
Its always hard to tell with Taiga. Does she get stronger? Or does everybody else just get weaker and she stays the same?
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