2015 Postseason General Discussion Thread

Single-Elimination Tournament and future ISML contests
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Re: 2015 Postseason General Discussion Thread

Post by avery-kun » Tue Nov 03, 2015 5:12 am

maglor wrote:
avery-kun wrote:
10ZHAbin wrote:
maglor wrote:
10ZHAbin wrote:When does Autumn Season Nomination begin?
November 1st
What happened?
Staff probably too busy. We might need to provide more volunteers to pick up some of slack, else ISML is doomed.
We need a good html person who can handle our web pages and a good server administrator who can do Crisu's bidding in preparation for Server move.
Take the web-development classes I said. It'd force you to figure out proper CSS convention and avoid table-hell, I said. It'd be helpful to compliment the Java skills since you know Web-apps are the future, I said. Did you listen to me? No. You just watched anime and assumed you could figure it out if you needed to.

Well guess what Avery. Your job wants new-web and you are already behind!
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Re: 2015 Postseason General Discussion Thread

Post by avery-kun » Tue Nov 03, 2015 4:28 pm

avery-kun wrote:Like last year I've created a little tool in Google Docs that will allow for playing around with Phase I matches to see what the rankings will be.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Simple save a copy of the spreadsheet and change the numbers in the "Winner Index" column to select the winner for that arena. "1" is for the left contestant, "2" is for the right contestant. The arenas in Rounds 2-4 will auto populate based on your selections from the previous round. The "Rank" in the table on the right will be their final rank based on your selections.
A note about this. Because a couple of arenas were manually moved around, you'll need to manually change those arenas because the tool will not be correct in Round 2. This is specifically for the Yukino vs Jibirl and Shiro vs Yui arenas.
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Re: 2015 Postseason General Discussion Thread

Post by avery-kun » Thu Nov 05, 2015 2:25 am

Phase I Final Ranking Expectations
Match simulations determined by current Full Pot Values of the contestants and the results so far.

Before Round 1
*This is based on the brackets before the manual changes that happened in Round 2.
NovaShow
1 Yukinoshita Yukino
2 Onodera Kosaki
3 Sakura Chiyo
4 Shiro
5 Yoshino
6 Jibril
7 Yuigahama Yui
8 Kirisaki Chitoge
------------------------
9 Tokisaki Kurumi
10 Sento Isuzu
11 Asada Shino
12 Yatogami Tōka
13 Tsutsukakushi Tsukiko
14 Nishikino Maki
15 Tachibana Marika
16 Kurousagi
StellaShow
1 Illyasviel von Einzbern
2 Tōsaka Rin
3 Shiina Mashiro
4 Chitanda Eru
5 Yūki Asuna
6 Aoyama Nanami
7 Kuroyukihime
8 Makise Kurisu
------------------------
9 Takanashi Rikka
10 Saber
11 Aisaka Taiga
12 Nakano Azusa
13 Aragaki Ayase
14 Nakamura Yuri
15 Yui-nyan
16 Eucliwood Hellscythe
After Round 1
NovaShow
1 Yukinoshita Yukino +0
2 Onodera Kosaki +0
3 Sakura Chiyo +0
4 Jibril +2
5 Yoshino +0
6 Yuigahama Yui +1
7 Shiro -3
8 Kirisaki Chitoge +0
------------------------
9 Tokisaki Kurumi +0
10 Sento Isuzu +0
11 Asada Shino +0
12 Yatogami Tōka +0
13 Tsutsukakushi Tsukiko +0
14 Nishikino Maki +0
15 Tachibana Marika +0
16 Kurousagi +0
StellaShow
1 Shiina Mashiro +2
2 Tōsaka Rin +0
3 Illyasviel von Einzbern -2
4 Chitanda Eru +0
5 Yūki Asuna +0
6 Makise Kurisu +2
7 Aoyama Nanami -1
8 Kuroyukihime -1
------------------------
9 Takanashi Rikka +0
10 Yui-nyan +5
11 Aisaka Taiga +0
12 Aragaki Ayase +1
13 Eucliwood Hellscythe +3
14 Saber -4
15 Nakano Azusa -3
16 Nakamura Yuri -2
After Round 2
NovaShow
1 Yukinoshita Yukino +0
2 Onodera Kosaki +0
3 Sakura Chiyo +0
4 Yuigahama Yui +0
5 Yoshino +0
6 Jibril +0
7 Shiro +0
8 Tokisaki Kurumi +1
------------------------
9 Kirisaki Chitoge -1
10 Asada Shino +1
11 Tachibana Marika +4
12 Yatogami Tōka +0
13 Kurousagi +3
14 Sento Isuzu -4
15 Nishikino Maki -1
16 Tsutsukakushi Tsukiko -3
StellaShow
1 Shiina Mashiro +0
2 Tōsaka Rin +0
3 Illyasviel von Einzbern +0
4 Chitanda Eru +0
5 Yūki Asuna +0
6 Aragaki Ayase +6
7 Aoyama Nanami +0
8 Saber +6
------------------------
9 Kuroyukihime -1
10 Makise Kurisu -4
11 Yui-nyan -1
12 Eucliwood Hellscythe +1
13 Nakano Azusa +2
14 Nakamura Yuri +2
15 Takanashi Rikka -6
16 Aisaka Taiga -5
Okay... I think that's the last edit. I think that I finally got everything right (save maglor makes another change in Round 4). The round 4 schedule should, finally, be correct, Nova's round 2 arenas should be correct for the after Round 1 and 2 predictions. All the arenas should be correct... All the formatting and coloring should finally be correct.
Last edited by avery-kun on Thu Nov 05, 2015 2:31 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: 2015 Postseason General Discussion Thread

Post by smartboyhw » Thu Nov 05, 2015 10:13 am

MEH COPYRIGHT
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Re: 2015 Postseason General Discussion Thread

Post by shadowhunter » Fri Nov 06, 2015 4:41 pm

PV is pretty decent, at least visual part.
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Re: 2015 Postseason General Discussion Thread

Post by Kiwigiwi » Fri Nov 06, 2015 5:00 pm

The PV is pretty and all but.. Why does Makise only have a small cut while the Oregairu trio keep getting repeated? Also the same shot of Kanie is used over and over. The difference in transition styles might be from the fact that the video was pieced together by different editors(?) though I may be wrong.

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Re: 2015 Postseason General Discussion Thread

Post by Chibasa » Fri Nov 06, 2015 5:08 pm

Why does Makise only have a small cut while the Oregairu trio keep getting repeated?
CERN try to shut down Kurisu. :jii:
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Re: 2015 Postseason General Discussion Thread

Post by smartboyhw » Fri Nov 06, 2015 5:23 pm

Kurogarasu wrote:The PV is pretty and all but.. Why does Makise only have a small cut while the Oregairu trio keep getting repeated? Also the same shot of Kanie is used over and over. The difference in transition styles might be from the fact that the video was pieced together by different editors(?) though I may be wrong.
Yukino was originally rather lacking in material in the initial version so I told them to add a bit more (it's Yui and Hachiman which got looped a lot). Kanie is a last-minute fix since he was left off by the maker of that part (and he deleted the file right after he made that part :oops: ). The system is that each editor picks whichever characters he wants and make it at the own will, so I tried not to interfere as much as I can (except in very facepalmable situations). Kurisu did appear twice I believe

I think I have to leave a remark for the makers here that since it is pieced by different editors and having to fit the rhythm of BGM (which is a disaster in the RS PV), it is very hard for them to balance out the time for each character.
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Re: 2015 Postseason General Discussion Thread

Post by Kiwigiwi » Fri Nov 06, 2015 5:28 pm

^ That makes sense. I figured as much.
The PV on it's own is still very pretty, though.
I appreciate every editor's hard work in making the video! So thank you <3

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Re: 2015 Postseason General Discussion Thread

Post by avery-kun » Sat Nov 07, 2015 4:18 am

Predicted Phase I rankings.

After Round 3
NovaShow
1 Yukinoshita Yukino +0
2 Onodera Kosaki +0
3 Sakura Chiyo +0
4 Yuigahama Yui +0
5 Yoshino +0
6 Jibril +0
7 Shiro +0
8 Kirisaki Chitoge +1
------------------------
9 Tokisaki Kurumi -1
10 Sento Isuzu +4
11 Asada Shino -1
12 Yatogami Tōka +0
13 Kurousagi +0
14 Tachibana Marika -3
15 Nishikino Maki +0
16 Tsutsukakushi Tsukiko +0
StellaShow
1 Shiina Mashiro +0
2 Chitanda Eru +2
3 Aoyama Nanami +4
4 Aragaki Ayase +2
5 Makise Kurisu +5
6 Illyasviel von Einzbern -3
7 Tōsaka Rin -5
8 Yūki Asuna -3
------------------------
9 Saber -1
10 Nakano Azusa +3
11 Nakamura Yuri +3
12 Kuroyukihime -3
13 Eucliwood Hellscythe -1
14 Takanashi Rikka +1
15 Yui-nyan -4
16 Aisaka Taiga +0
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Re: 2015 Postseason General Discussion Thread

Post by Shmion84 » Sat Nov 07, 2015 2:17 pm

At the request of a single person I try to do something like I did last year after Day 3. It's more complicated this year. So this post deals with Nova competitors. Feel free to point out errors.

Following 5 competitors have already qualified for Postseason II: Onodera Kosaki, Yukinoshita Yukino (3 wins), Yuigahama Yui, Sakura Chiyo and Yoshino (at least 2 wins, 1 quality win - no chance for Tokisaki Kurumi or Yatogami Tōka to sneak past them via win-loss-difference).
Following 6 competitors have no chances to qualify for Postseason II: Tsutsukakushi Tsukiko, Nishikino Maki (can reach only 1 win), Kurousagi, Asada Shino, Sento Isuzu, and Tachibana Marika (can reach only 2 wins, but no quality win - no chance to qualify due to Regular Season rank. Win-loss-difference doesn't help either).

So Kirisaki Chitoge, Jibril, Shiro, Tokisaki Kurumi and Yatogami Tōka fight over 3 Postseason II slots. In most cases Kirisaki Chitoge, Jibril and Shiro will qualify (*). The following image shows the cases, where Tokisaki Kurumi or Yatogami Tōka can qualify:
Image
In two cases Tokisaki Kurumi can profit from win-loss-difference (tie-braker among competitors with 2 wins, 1 quality win):
(1) The right way to Jibril/Shiro/Tokisaki thanks to Kirisaki Chitoge's loss to Sakura Chiyo on Day 2.
(2) The way to Kirisaki/Jibril/Tokisaki thanks to Shiro's loss to Yuigahama Yui on Day 2.
In the other cases Kirisaki Chitoge and/or Jibril end up reaching only 2 wins, but no quality win.

(*) Assuming all interesting matches are 50-50 balanced with no clear favourite, then only in 25 % of the cases either Tokisaki Kurumi (3/32) or Yatogami Tōka (5/32) can qualify.
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Re: 2015 Postseason General Discussion Thread

Post by shadowhunter » Sat Nov 07, 2015 3:04 pm

Shmion84 wrote:At the request of a single person I try to do something like I did last year after Day 3. It's more complicated this year. So this post deals with Nova competitors. Feel free to point out errors.

Following 5 competitors have already qualified for Postseason II: Onodera Kosaki, Yukinoshita Yukino (3 wins), Yuigahama Yui, Sakura Chiyo and Yoshino (at least 2 wins, 1 quality win - no chance for Tokisaki Kurumi or Yatogami Tōka to sneak past them via win-loss-difference).
Following 6 competitors have no chances to qualify for Postseason II: Tsutsukakushi Tsukiko, Nishikino Maki (can reach only 1 win), Kurousagi, Asada Shino, Sento Isuzu, and Tachibana Marika (can reach only 2 wins, but no quality win - no chance to qualify due to Regular Season rank. Win-loss-difference doesn't help either).

So Kirisaki Chitoge, Jibril, Shiro, Tokisaki Kurumi and Yatogami Tōka fight over 3 Postseason II slots. In most cases Kirisaki Chitoge, Jibril and Shiro will qualify (*). The following image shows the cases, where Tokisaki Kurumi or Yatogami Tōka can qualify:
Image
In two cases Tokisaki Kurumi can profit from win-loss-difference (tie-braker among competitors with 2 wins, 1 quality win):
(1) The right way to Jibril/Shiro/Tokisaki thanks to Kirisaki Chitoge's loss to Sakura Chiyo on Day 2.
(2) The way to Kirisaki/Jibril/Tokisaki thanks to Shiro's loss to Yuigahama Yui on Day 2.
In the other cases Kirisaki Chitoge and/or Jibril end up reaching only 2 wins, but no quality win.


(*) Assuming all interesting matches are 50-50 balanced with no clear favourite, then only in 25 % of the cases either Tokisaki Kurumi (3/32) or Yatogami Tōka (5/32) can qualify.

Is it possible to do same thing for Stella?
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Re: 2015 Postseason General Discussion Thread

Post by matchbaby » Sat Nov 07, 2015 5:05 pm

For stella, Mashiro Asuna Nanami Eru must get in

No way for Rikka Taiga and Yui to get in

The middle one too hard to calculate

(notice: I have forgot to calculate about WL so I don't know whether Nanami or Eru will fail or not... Although Azusa must has 0QW, she still have chance to get into ps2 thanks to Cruisu)
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Re: 2015 Postseason General Discussion Thread

Post by avery-kun » Sat Nov 07, 2015 5:17 pm

matchbaby wrote:For stella, Mashiro Asuna Nanami Eru must get in

No way for Rikka Taiga and Yui to get in

The middle one too hard to calculate
Asuna is vulnerable is she loses. And after her lost to Ayase, I don't rule it out.
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Re: 2015 Postseason General Discussion Thread

Post by Shmion84 » Sat Nov 07, 2015 5:33 pm

shadowhunter wrote:Is it possible to do same thing for Stella?
Stella is much more complicated. A flow chart would be very huge.

Following 3 competitors have already qualified for Postseason II: Onodera Kosaki, Yukinoshita Yukino (3 wins) and Chitanda Eru.
Following 3 competitors don't have any chances to qualify for Postseason II: Aisaka Taiga, Yui-nyan (can reach only 1 win) and Takanashi Rikka.

Therefore 10 competitors (Nakamura Yuri, Yūki Asuna, Aoyama Nanami, Saber, Makise Kurisu, Illyasviel von Einzbern, Kuroyukihime, Tōsaka Rin, Eucliwood Hellscythe and Nakano Azusa) fight over 5 open slots.
10 competitors are many! So I used brute force to calculate a score based on wins, quality wins, win-loss-difference (in case of ties for wins and quality wins) and Regular Season rank for all 64 possible cases (= 2⁶ cases for the 6 matches with impact on the decision). The 64 cases lead to 20 different groups of 5 girls who qualify. So, no flow chart, but a table (1170 x 1170 px):
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Hopefully correct. Feel free to point out any errors.
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Re: 2015 Postseason General Discussion Thread

Post by matchbaby » Sun Nov 08, 2015 3:16 am

Actually Nanami can still get out...
The WL situation is too complicated, I swear I will not do it again next year =_=
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Re: 2015 Postseason General Discussion Thread

Post by shadowhunter » Sun Nov 08, 2015 4:30 am

So, Aoyama's chances are 62/64, KYH's - 16/64 and Kurisu's - 47/64.
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Re: 2015 Postseason General Discussion Thread

Post by maglor » Sun Nov 08, 2015 6:21 am

Shmion84 wrote:
shadowhunter wrote:Is it possible to do same thing for Stella?
Stella is much more complicated. A flow chart would be very huge.

Following 3 competitors have already qualified for Postseason II: Onodera Kosaki, Yukinoshita Yukino (3 wins) and Chitanda Eru.
Following 3 competitors don't have any chances to qualify for Postseason II: Aisaka Taiga, Yui-nyan (can reach only 1 win) and Takanashi Rikka.

Therefore 10 competitors (Nakamura Yuri, Yūki Asuna, Aoyama Nanami, Saber, Makise Kurisu, Illyasviel von Einzbern, Kuroyukihime, Tōsaka Rin, Eucliwood Hellscythe and Nakano Azusa) fight over 5 open slots.
10 competitors are many! So I used brute force to calculate a score based on wins, quality wins, win-loss-difference (in case of ties for wins and quality wins) and Regular Season rank for all 64 possible cases (= 2⁶ cases for the 6 matches with impact on the decision). The 64 cases lead to 20 different groups of 5 girls who qualify. So, no flow chart, but a table (1170 x 1170 px):
Image
Hopefully correct. Feel free to point out any errors.
All Hail Shmion, lord of spreadsheets!!
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Re: 2015 Postseason General Discussion Thread

Post by matchbaby » Sun Nov 08, 2015 7:52 am

Therefore, we don't have maps in ps1? -_-|||
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Re: 2015 Postseason General Discussion Thread

Post by Chibasa » Sun Nov 08, 2015 2:25 pm

All Hail Shmion, lord of spreadsheets!!
Shmion is impressive :onion67:
Therefore, we don't have maps in ps1? -_-|||
Be more patient, point out there's still no map everyday will not help. It just can add some pressure to staff. And they all working hard for you :bigsmile:
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