At the request of a single person I try to do something like I did last year after Day 3
. It's more complicated this year. So this post deals with Nova competitors. Feel free to point out errors.
Following 5 competitors have already qualified for Postseason II: Onodera Kosaki, Yukinoshita Yukino (3 wins), Yuigahama Yui, Sakura Chiyo and Yoshino (at least 2 wins, 1 quality win - no chance for Tokisaki Kurumi or Yatogami Tōka to sneak past them via win-loss-difference).
Following 6 competitors have no chances to qualify for Postseason II: Tsutsukakushi Tsukiko, Nishikino Maki (can reach only 1 win), Kurousagi, Asada Shino, Sento Isuzu, and Tachibana Marika (can reach only 2 wins, but no quality win - no chance to qualify due to Regular Season rank. Win-loss-difference doesn't help either).
So Kirisaki Chitoge, Jibril, Shiro, Tokisaki Kurumi and Yatogami Tōka fight over 3 Postseason II slots. In most cases Kirisaki Chitoge, Jibril and Shiro will qualify (*). The following image shows the cases, where Tokisaki Kurumi or Yatogami Tōka can qualify:
In two cases Tokisaki Kurumi can profit from win-loss-difference (tie-braker among competitors with 2 wins, 1 quality win):
(1) The right way to Jibril/Shiro/Tokisaki thanks to Kirisaki Chitoge's loss to Sakura Chiyo on Day 2.
(2) The way to Kirisaki/Jibril/Tokisaki thanks to Shiro's loss to Yuigahama Yui on Day 2.
In the other cases Kirisaki Chitoge and/or Jibril end up reaching only 2 wins, but no quality win.
(*) Assuming all interesting matches are 50-50 balanced with no clear favourite, then only in 25 % of the cases either Tokisaki Kurumi (3/32) or Yatogami Tōka (5/32) can qualify.