ISML 2020 PLAYOFFS! discussion thread

[BT Salt]

Yeah that's right, i'm gonna rename this stage to PLAYOFFS.
"Elimination stage" is outdated. We already eliminate characters in the regular season.
But "Playoffs"? First thing they see when they hear dat word is SPORTS! HIGH STAKES! WIN OR GO HOME! CHAMPIONSHIPS! that kind of thrill they feel in real sports leagues like NBA or NFL.

(Logo and image edited by me on Photoshop)

This thread is about the playoffs of the "ISML 2020" edition; although it's actually held during early 2021 due to its schedule and relatively late start time.

Format:
- Still the same old 16-player single eliminations tournament
- Players are seeded based on their final positions of the 3rd group stage (aka split 3); see @Ennadai's stats dump in the "diamond" subforum for more info
- Bracket order:
--- A1-B8, B4-A5, B2-A7, A3-B6;
--- B1-A8, A4-B5, A2-B7, B3-A6.
- Consolation matches will be played for all losers except the runner-up in order to rank contestants from 3rd and below. Format TBD.
- Winner of the final match claims the "Heavenly tiara" (females) or "Lapis scepter" (males) and declared as this edition's champion.


Tiara playoffs
@starryrainynight already has his own version released first, but since i'm the poster here i'm going to post my version from the saimoe wikia instead.


Scepter playoffs

[Toady]

Playoffs make me think of ice hockey. I prefer "postseason".

Anyway, starry made some prediction events, it'd be fun if many people participate!

Heavenly Tiara: https://challonge.com/e60r5oln
Lapis Scepter: https://challonge.com/orvh2tja

My favourite for Tiara are in order: Rikka, Iroha, Emilia, Yui, Kaguya.
For Scepter: Tomoya, Natsuki, Houhouin Kyouma, Ishigami, Shirogane.

Wouldn't mind a Kaguya-Shirogane victory at all!

[WarmMist]

I like the new name, it seems to fit better.

I'm rooting for the AoButa couple. Mai has a tricky first match against Emilia, since she has performed very well lately and has shown that she can beat anyone on a good day (like she did with Yukino in Diamond 4). On the other hand, Sakuta seems to have a much easier draw, since he would avoid the other top dogs (IMO the Kaguya-sama guys and Riku Dola) till the final.

[BT Salt]

Playoffs make me think of ice hockey. I prefer "postseason".

Nah, i like "Playoffs" more cuz it is more familiar, gives a more sporting feel, and it rolls off the tongue much better
out of the four major USA leagues only MLB (baseball) uses "postseason"
I think both words practically mean the same anyways

[BT Salt]

I like the new name, it seems to fit better.

I'm rooting for the AoButa couple. Mai has a tricky first match against Emilia, since she has performed very well lately and has shown that she can beat anyone on a good day (like she did with Yukino in Diamond 4). On the other hand, Sakuta seems to have a much easier draw, since he would avoid the other top dogs (IMO the Kaguya-sama guys and Riku Dola) till the final.

yeah emilia has the potential to upset mai because of re:zero s2, but then again the bunny girl voting bloc exists...
likewise subaru can beat yuuta for the same reason.

I wanna know how much the primary voting factions are gonna influence the results, cause i feel like there it's less of the characters and more of these groups that are fighting. There's going to be lots of "strategic voting" and "rigging" going on.
Like campaigns, spite votes, multi-votes, recency bias, hacking the system etc.

[Kurogaga]

Here's my prediction for ISML 2020:

• Heavenly Tiara: Click here

• Lapis Scepter: Click here

[leomessigoat]

Subaru is more likely to beat Yuta now. I like both of them.
I will vote for Emilia. But it's very hard for her. I think only Shinomiya Kaguya can beat Mai certainly. But I hope she can be beated by Misaka Mikoto.

[RichardJoash]

Can you add Catarina Claes in the exhibition?

[Ennadai]

Postseason Elimination Stage DAY1

EVShow

Name (W-L,CVP)	FEV% (STDV%)
Shinomiya Kaguya v. Shokuhō Misaki	59.70% - 40.30%
(34-1,54.162) (21-14,40.034)	(2.95%)
Hayasaka Ai v. Takanashi Rikka	46.94% - 53.06%
(26-9,41.994) (32-3,43.199)	(2.38%)
Azusagawa Sakuta v. Saitama	60.22% - 39.78%
(34-1,43.806) (24-11,35.032)	(2.83%)
Archer v. Okabe Rintarō	47.18% - 52.82%
(24-11,35.090) (24-11,36.596)	(2.71%)
Izumi Sagiri v. Miyamizu Mitsuha	54.66% - 45.34%
(14-21,40.175) (11-9,20.578)	(1.09%)
Amano Hina v. Saber	47.86% - 52.14%
(15-20,33.992) (12-23,34.441)	(0.96%)
Makinohara Shōko v. Sawamura Spencer Eriri	49.46% - 50.54%
(7-13,19.006) (16-19,34.901)	(1.03%)
Aisaka Taiga v. Hirasawa Yui	52.12% - 47.88%
(10-10,20.223) (5-15,20.008)	(0.82%)
Illyasviel von Einzbern v. Kasumigaoka Utaha	45.21% - 54.79%
(7-13,19.107) (18-17,36.791)	(1.60%)
Azusagawa Kaede v. Nakano Azusa	47.45% - 52.55%
(8-12,19.199) (8-12,19.570)	(1.65%)
Index L. Prohibitorum v. Takagi	53.20% - 46.80%
(14-21,39.530) (5-15,18.366)	(0.38%)
Aoyama Nanami v. Schwi Dola	48.94% - 51.06%
(13-22,34.712) (18-17,37.948)	(2.94%)
Kasugano Sora v. Ōmae Kumiko	47.76% - 52.24%
(4-16,19.002) (6-14,18.477)	(1.53%)
Eren Yeager v. Eugeo	48.56% - 51.44%
(8-12,17.748) (16-19,32.493)	(0.31%)
Kyon v. Willem Kmetsch	50.43% - 49.57%
(7-13,17.412) (11-24,30.072)	(1.38%)
Ishida Shōya v. Izumi Masamune	50.78% - 49.22%
(11-9,18.441) (9-26,30.184)	(1.50%)
Akasaka Ryūnosuke v. Fukube Satoshi	46.42% - 53.58%
(9-11,17.668) (10-10,18.469)	(2.03%)
Akabane Karma v. Emiya Kiritsugu	48.25% - 51.75%
(6-14,17.357) (15-20,32.028)	(1.15%)
Edogawa Conan v. Otosaka Yū	51.30% - 48.70%
(11-9,19.988) (18-17,33.788)	(0.50%)
Natsume Takashi v. Shiota Nagisa	49.89% - 50.11%
(19-16,32.409) (11-9,17.821)	(1.25%)
Itsuka Shidō v. Lelouch Lamperouge	46.89% - 53.11%
(11-24,31.271) (13-7,19.414)	(1.32%)
Tomioka Giyū v. Yato	49.97% - 50.03%
(6-14,17.456) (8-27,29.560)	(0.41%)

SpoilerShow

2020 Sapphire 2	Shinomiya Kaguya	4243	2469	Shokuhō Misaki
2019 Ruby 3	Azusagawa Sakuta	6305	5204	Saitama
2015 Ruby 5	Archer	2458	2010	Okabe Rintarō
2016 Round16 4	Archer	1379	1282	Okabe Rintarō
2017 Amethyst 11	Archer	1071	841	Okabe Rintarō
2019 Topaz 2	Izumi Sagiri	7288	5417	Miyamizu Mitsuha
2010 Ruby 4	Aisaka Taiga	2440	2020	Hirasawa Yui
2010 Elimination 4	Aisaka Taiga	3385	2803	Hirasawa Yui
2011 Ruby 7	Aisaka Taiga	3602	2414	Hirasawa Yui
2012 Amethyst 5	Aisaka Taiga	4842	2614	Hirasawa Yui
2013 Ruby 3	Aisaka Taiga	4552	2719	Hirasawa Yui
2014 Emerald 2	Aisaka Taiga	3073	1993	Hirasawa Yui
2015 Ruby 6	Aisaka Taiga	3297	2252	Hirasawa Yui
2017 Sapphire 8	Aisaka Taiga	1304	749	Hirasawa Yui
2019 Amethyst 3	Aisaka Taiga	4201	5296	Hirasawa Yui
2019 Aquamarine 3	Illyasviel von Einzbern	5655	5151	Kasumigaoka Utaha
2018 Ruby 4	Aoyama Nanami	17634	16437	Schwi Dola
2019 Aquamarine 3	Eren Yeager	4979	5775	Eugeo
2018 Emerald 4	Kyon	8901	10230	Willem Kmetsch
2018 Diamond 5	Kyon	12332	14964	Willem Kmetsch
2019 Diamond 2	Kyon	8246	7994	Willem Kmetsch
2017 Diamond 1	Akabane Karma	1447	1370	Emiya Kiritsugu
2018 Amethyst 3	Edogawa Conan	2654	2092	Otosaka Yū
2020 Amethyst 2	Tomioka Giyū	1397	1574	Yato

[leomessigoat]

Okabe Rintarō will beat Archer for the first time.

[Chibasa]

Power ChartShow

Favorites 1st Shinomiya Kaguya:
Power: 97.1 CVPD: 25.085 S3CVP: 21.01 W/L: 34-1

Last Year Status: Winter Seasonal Winner, Seasonal Overall Winner

Analysis: Kaguya was expected to dominate this year, and she did not disappointed. After dominating both 2019 seasonals and Couple Tournament, she kept her pace this year facing only one loss, to Asuna. She got herself Amethyst Necklace with ease and is aiming to prove to anyone doubting her, that being in a very competitive year isn't a problem for her. And she have nice arguments for that, first her whole faction is dominating, Chika, Ai, Miyuki, Yuu, even Kei and Miko performed this year. At this rate, they might try contest title of most dominant faction ever to KyoAni (during early ISML). Secondly, bracket-wise...

Opposition: Facing Misaki first, Kaguya should not be threatened early on, however, quarterfinal might be another story, talking about Kyoto Animation, their last female standing is none other than Takanashi Rikka, and she proved being dangerous in PostSeason in the past, what might she be able to achieve after becoming even stronger in Regular Season this year ? No one knows, but Kaguya put a maid on the case. And even if the maid is defeated, Rikka might not be as scary as other potential quarterfinalists. So Kaguya have a good path to semifinals.

Kaguya's Comment: Winning isn't an option for me, it's a necessity, I cannot afford to lose while Miyuki might got Scepter for himself, then I wouldn't just lose to the other girls but to Miyuki too, and this isn't acceptable. This is why I will be merciless.

2nd Misaka Mikoto:
Power: 92.9 CVPD: 25.020 S3CVP: 21.35 W/L: 33-2

Last Year Status: Retired (2011 Tiara Winner)

Analysis: Misaka Mikoto... Her name alone is able to give nightmares to most of her opponents. Queen of Moe, GOAT, Best Waifu and even more titles were associated to her. Debates about her being the uncontested number one spiced up the saimoe community during last years, and Mikoto have an occasion to silence her detractors and cement even further her legend in history. However she might discover some new opponents, hungry for fame and ready to prove her she ain't the greatest of this current era and still have a lot to do, to pretend being the greatest of all time. Mikoto for sure had a strong Regular Season this year, with her Emerald Necklace, but she wasn't invincible and is only second of this power ranking, can she find the forces to overcome Kaguya and win it all even besides a lot of people wanna avoid a repeat winner?

Opposition: A wild Chika will be the first opponent on her road, she seemed to have really bad results everytime she faces a high-level opponent, which can be illustrated by her performances in necklaces. However, Chika have the profile of a very good sniper. And a lot of people have some interests seeing Mikoto gone as early as possible. After this, it is hardest part of the bracket for Mikoto, with probably Kurumi and Kaguya on the path to final.

Mikoto's Comment: Just because I won the Tiara years ago, does not mean I can rest easy. A lot has changed in the saimoe competition world, and I see many rising stars who I know will make a major impact in the moe world. Fighting them at less than 100% would be dishonorable. But, if you think I'm going to do down without a fight, think again. It's time to show you all that I still got it !

3rd Yukinoshita Yukino:
Power: 92.8 CVPD: 24.017 S3CVP: 20.31 W/L: 34-1

Last Year Status: Eliminated R16 (by Takanashi Rikka), 4th in Power Chart

Analysis: Yukino is slowly grinding the power chart every year, but it doesn't necessary translate into good results for elimination stage. After her defeat to Rikka last year and her last minute defeat to Emilia in Diamond this year, it would be surprising if she lets her guard down again. Close to get a perfect Regular Season, Yukino is seen as the main threat for Kaguya by many. Her Sapphire Necklace win got her a bit bigger ISML palmares, might she be able reach a new high and write its main line ?

Opposition: She is also considered being the main favorite of her half of the bracket. Facing Shiro, Yukino should avoid troubles on first round and might have a real challenge in quarterfinals with Aquamarine Necklace winner Asuna. Unless Yuigahama pulls the trigger and offer up a very nice path for Yukino, who never had trouble proving her superiority to other OreGairu girls.

Yukino's Comment: Many times I have entered this far into the tournament, yet still, I have not been able to capture the big one. I have seen how I have won and lost my matches, replayed what went down and what I could have done to win. This tournament may be my biggest and last chance to be a relevant member of the moe world. I will do everything that I can to win. That's not a statement, that's a promise.

Rivals

4th Tokisaki Kurumi:
Power: 86.8 CVPD: 24.527 S3CVP: 20.85 W/L: 32-3

Last Year Status: Eliminated in Quarterfinals (by Violet Evergarden), 2nd in Power Chart

Analysis: Kurumi looks very strong once again, after managing to finally perform in PostSeason and get her first necklace ever last year, she got a second one this year, Topaz. With third best CVPD and third best CVP in last split, she seems to have the potential to take down anyone, but there are a lot of strong opponents on her road, and it will be hard to take em all out.

Opposition: Tohsaka Rin is going up and down over the years, and it's probably her biggest down in a while, it's a golden opportunity for Kurumi. After that however, she might have the hardest bracket, with potentially Mikoto and Kaguya, before final. Harsh.

Kurumi's Comment: Ara ara, don't be fooled humans, cleaning up girls into gems is my speciality.

5th Yuuki Asuna:
Power: 83.1 CVPD: 20.066 S3CVP: 19.52 W/L: 30-5

Last Year Status: Eliminated in Round of 16 (by Sakurajima Mai), 11th in Power Chart

Analysis: Grabbing an Aquamarine Necklace with ease at start of the year, Asuna took it a bit easy later on and had few more defeats than other contestants of her caliber, will she be able to get back at her full strength in time, or her necklace win was just a fluke obtained with a good factional strategy ? None of her opponents will lower their guard even imagining the latter.

Opposition: Yuigahama is climbing the ladder this year and is stronger than ever, Asuna will have to be at her full power from the start if she wants to go far. Probably facing Yukino in quarterfinal, she will have a very complicated path, but Asuna probably ain't the girl worried by challenge, rather transcended by it. Might it be her year?

Asuna's comment: This isn't just my fight. I fight for all those who have helped paved the way for me to make it this far, not just in this tournament, but personally as well. My dear friends, guide my blade and assist me to victory!

6th Shiina Mashiro:
Power: 79.4 CVPD: 17.202 S3CVP: 19.25 W/L: 32-3

Last Year Status: Eliminated in Semifinals (by Tohsaka Rin), 7th in Power Chart

Analysis: In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death, taxes, and that Mashiro will reach top four in ISML. The Semifinal Princess only missed it once, losing to death herself (interpreted by the famous necromancer: Eucliwood Hellscythe). This year, she added Ruby Necklace to her collection. Already discussed to be one of the contestant with best longevity in the tournament, she will try go further into the tournament history and make sure everyone remembers her.

Opposition: Iroha isn't the favorite and she cannot be considered as a messenger of death, but she for sure can manage make anyone pay their taxes. And same can be said for Mai or Emilia that will await Mashiro in quarterfinal !

Mashiro's comment: Winning the tournament? That's nice. Am I interested in winning? Maybe? I think? Is it colorful? It is? Okay, I feel like winning now.

7th Sakurajima Mai:
Power: 75.8 CVPD: 13.820 S3CVP: 19.18 W/L: 33-2

Last Year Status: Eliminated in Quarterfinals (by Violet Evergarden), 5th in Power Chart

Analysis: After a semifinal last year, Mai was awaited this year and she did not disappointed in Regular Season, however, she did in necklaces rounds, missing some by tiny margins, she's still going into PostSeason as one of the powerhouse to be scared of.

Opposition: Emilia is scarier than her stats says, Re:Zero current season might boost her enough to make her a potential ISML winner. And this is just the first round, Mai would have to defeat Mashiro before semifinals after...

Mai's comment: The tournament? Well, of course, I'd like to win, just like all the other girls here. But, it's more than just winning. It's about fighting for something you care for. It took me a while to realize that, so now I can hold my head up high. And that's why, I won't lose.

8th Takanashi Rikka:
Power: 67.5 CVPD: 9.067 S3CVP: 17.61 W/L: 32-3

Last Year Status: Eliminated in Quarterfinals (by Shiina Mashiro), 12th in Power Chart

Analysis: Rikka seems to climb further into the competition this year, she is dominant. She made some big wins, got a huge win in Diamond Necklace and is known to power-up during Final Stage. Now is she consistent enough to make it to the end ? That's another story, and a very interesting one.

Opposition: Rikka is a strange girl to say the least, a lot of voters agree that this would not be a surprise to see her lose right in first round, but that wouldn't be a surprise if she upset Kaguya in quarterfinal as well... Her unexpected behavior makes her hard to face but... Hayasaka looks to be highest quality Dark Horse we've seen in a while. She is designed to snipe and is a real test for Rikka.

Rikka's comment: I knew it. Our paths have crossed at last. Now that the powers of my eye have fully awakened, I will win this tournament and access a new plane of existence!! Vanishment... this World! ouch Yu-Yuuta! Why are you hitting me with that ladle, I was just making a speech for my fans!

Underdogs:

9th Yuigahama Yui:
Power: 52.1 CVPD: 7.605 S3CVP: 17.73 W/L: 28-7

Last Year Status: Eliminated in Ruby (1-2)

Analysis: Yuigahama got herself an Amethyst Bracelet and even performed quite well in some necklaces lately, she's leading the underdogs pack by a decent margin, a sign of her rise this year, she's only one step away from making it into another tier of contestant, and she'll try to make that step right here, right now.

Opposition: Asuna is a powerhouse since a long time now, and even if she seemed scarier at start of the year, she will probably collect all her forces again for PostSeason. A very fierce opponent that doesn't let a lot of margin for YuiYui to maneuver.

Yui's comment: Yahallo! Mmmmh? What do I think about my chances? Well, I might just be a challenger, but that doesn't mean I won't give it my all! Just like in love, a tournament isn't over till you give up! Unless you get eliminated I guess? Just like when your crush decides to go out with another woman... Mmmh, what? No, no, no, that was just an example! An example!!

10th Fujiwara Chika:
Power: 44.7 CVPD: 10.652 S3CVP: 16.93 W/L: 27-8

Last Year Status: Eliminated in Winter Semifinal (by Nakano Miku)

Analysis: Coming from the strongest season in 2019, Chika was one of the main discussion before start of the tournament, and she still is. But maybe not for the best reasons. Getting five times last in Necklace matches and failing against the strongest opponents made her a not so hyped contestant. Strong against the weak, weak against the strong. And she have to power-up to try change the story of her first year in the tournament.

Opposition: Now that's an opponent to be sacred of, Mikoto have no need to be presented. But Chika isn't the kind to be afraid, she will give it her all because she knows that in this kind of cases, the only way is forward.

Chika's comment: Hey! Yo! Yo! Fujiwara Chika is in the house, and she's about to get down! This tournament is just like one big game. All you have to do is follow the rules and have as much fun as I can. Those who can't enjoy themselves in this tournament are so lame. Therefore, I'm going to add that extra spice in everyone's life and infect them with my smile, because that's what I do!

11th Tohsaka Rin:
Power: 43 CVPD: 8.743 S3CVP: 16.45 W/L: 27-8

Last Year Status: Eliminated in Final (by Violet Evergarden), 1st in Power Chart

Analysis: With an outstanding 2019, making her way easily to the finals and yet barely losing against Violet. 2020 has been very different for her, no necklace and several losses made her even unable to participate in some. Could it be that her losing in the finals makes her fans give up? The Fate franchise as a whole has clearly lost some of the power they used to have, even with some amazing wins by Gilgamesh and Lancer, there's no denying that Fate is weaker this year. But not all is lost, Rin has shown us that she's capable of defeating high seeded characters before and now in the top 16, she's determined to do so again.

Opposition: Over the time, Kurumi seems to be getting stronger. She has always been the strongest one out of the Date a Live cast, but despite that, Kotori was the first girl to reach the finals and win the Tiara. Still Kurumi's strong fanbase has pushed her to get two Necklace in recent years, truly a hard opponent to get in first round and will give Rin some trouble.

Rin's comment: There is a reason while I'm still here even when some of Fate friends start to fade away, and why I was already there before all the other in 2009. I cannot give up this fight and let my franchise being forgotten, that's why I will give all what I have to show everyone I'm not washed-up and can carry overcome any obstacles. I'm not fighting for myself anymore but for all my friends !

12th Hayasaka Ai:
Power: 41.2 CVPD: 6.317 S3CVP: 16.62 W/L: 26-9

Last Year Status: Failed Winter Nominations

Analysis: With no data gathered about her during last years Winter Seasonal, Hayasaka was awaited by many this year, and she probably over-performed expectations. She's even in contention with Chika for being second strongest girl of the faction. Her performances in bracelet might the only con to her performance this far, but looking forward to PostSeason...

Opposition: She have the opportunity to make up for it. Rikka is strong yet reachable, strange yet intriguing, small yet a big name in the competition... And beating her would be both an accomplishment and a gift for Kaguya.

Ai's comment: My duty is to serve. It would be rude of me to be selfish and work for my own gain. But, just for this tournament, perhaps I can be a bit selfish and take on a persona that will give me the greatest chance of success.... And, with that out of the way, here we go!

13th Emilia:
Power: 38.8 CVPD: 8.527 S3CVP: 16.67 W/L: 25-10

Last Year Status: Eliminated in Quarterfinals (by Toshaka Rin), 9th in Power Chart

Analysis: Emilia's path to the Elimination stage has not been the easiest. She was hanging on the edge of being left out till that amazing win against Yukino in Diamond helped her to win a spot in the bracket. Still with no necklace and several losses, she's placed in the lower half of the ranking facing Mai, but not all is lost, with a new season airing, she may get that boost that she needs to win and once more reach the final stage.

Opposition: Emilia's first opponent is Mai, one of the new powerhouses in ISML. She got an amazing win record of 33-2 this year, and despite she goes Necklaceless she's still screams trouble to Emilia. Winning this first round might be hard for Emilia, but she has proved that she can win against high seeds characters, and with a new season airing, her chances of winning rises, but still her fanbase needs to do some effort if they want to see EMT again in the finals.

Emilia's comment: Thank you for entrusting your dreams with me. I am lacking in many aspect, but with Puck, Subaru, and you at my side, I will do my best and will become the queen you can be proud of.

14th Isshiki Iroha:
Power: 38.6 CVPD: 5.673 S3CVP: 16.29 W/L: 26-9

Last Year Status: Eliminated in Round of 16 (by Tokisaki Kurumi), 15th in Power Chart

Analysis: Missing to get a bracelet, Iroha didn't performed as much as her fans initially wanted, but her win record is still quite strong and she showed some consistency over the year. She still have a chance to ravish her fans by making a historical performance during Final Stage.

Opposition: Mashiro is the most constant contestant over years and seems quite too strong for Iroha to overtake, but Iroha is full of resources and can turn any bad situation with a single smile.

Iroha's comment: Senpaiiiii! Please make sure everyone votes for me, I'm not one of the favorites, I really need your help! Senpai? Why are you looking at me with these dead-fish eyes? I know I'm very attractive, but don't look at me like you're about to undress me, I'm not interested!

15th Shiro:
Power: 28.4 CVPD: 4.581 S3CVP: 15.55 W/L: 24-11

Last Year Status: Eliminated in Diamond (1-2)

Analysis: Shiro barely gets into top sixteen with Akiyama Mio chasing her during whole third split, yet she managed to overcome adversity and get back where she thinks she belongs: Final Stage of the tournament. Missing her shot at getting a bracelet, she still have to prove herself a bit more to satisfy her fans this year, but the task won't be easy.

Opposition: Yukino is definitely the favorite in this match, but Shiro already made the impossible once in round of sixteen, it might be even harder this time, yet she won't give up this easily.

Shiro's comment: Another tournament, another crown. It's all about logic, tactics, and skill. Brother, watch me. I will win, and we will be together again.

16th Shokuhou Misaki:
Power: 25.9 CVPD: 3.822 S3CVP: 16.41 W/L: 21-14

Last Year Status: Failed Nominations (#66)

Analysis: New Railgun season gave a good opportunity to finally comeback for Misaki, after missing nominations by few ballots last years. Her performances got quite decent even if she's the only girl that didn't got any poster in the To Aru faction this year, which can be a disappointment for he fans. Yet, it is her that accompany Mikoto on the final stage. With a chance to shine once more.

Opposition: Facing a dominant Kaguya that seems even more terrifying to face than Violet last year, Misaki have limited chances to get past round of sixteen, yet she might still have support of her faction and anyone that wish to have shot avoiding to face Kaguya later in the bracket, so, a tiny hope exists for the Queen.

Misaki's comment: I wanted to use Mental Out on voters to get some easy wins, but maglor told me it was forbidden. He even confiscated my remote for the rest of the tournament ! Talk about a party-killer... Kuku, more seriously, I may have low chances to get past this first round, I will still try my best so... Watch out for me.

[maglor]

Maps and graphs

[maglor]

more maps

[WarmMist]

Wow, first upset of the playoffs on the very first day with Hayasaka beating Rikka. Kaguya-sama faction looks too strong this year, I can hardly see anyone else winning the tiara and scepter to be honest.

[Hachiko]

NewsShow

ISML 2020: Ai Hayasaka With A Shocker!

By Jo-Ryan Salazar
The Bedlam On Baltic Avenue
January 19, 2021

Kaguya Shinomiya, unsurprisingly, covered the spread in her 6069-4012 rout of Misaki Shokuhou on Match Day 1 of the 2020 International Saimoe League Elimination Period, but Ai Hayasaka scored the Upset of the Round, a 4966-4036 thriller over Rikka Takanashi. Sakuta Azusagawa thumped Saitama 5457-3202 while Rintarou Okabe dominated Archer 4841-3536.

Making the cut for the ISML Fall Seasonal cut were Ayumu Uehara (2207), Setsuna Yuuki (2207), Elaina (6294), Saya (3123), Aurora Suya Rhys Kaymin (2805), Nana Hiiragi (2232), Yui Hanasaka (2242), Kaname Arisugawa (2467), Tsukasa Yuzaki (5124), Sakura Adachi (2963), Hougetsu Shimamura (2442), Sharo Kirima (2941), Rize Tedeza (3278), Rika Furude (2386), Kyouko Izanami (2423) and Hina Sato (2516). Elaina is tipped by the Bedlam to win the Fall Seasonal for the right to challenge Kei Shirogane for the Speaker of the Saimoe Diet position.

Consolation matches also took place. In the Female Division, Mitsuha Miyamizu won the clsest race of the round, a 4463-4455 thriller over Sagiri Izumi, Saber slashed past Hina Amano 4977-3596, Shouko Makinohara pummeled Eriri Spencer Sawamura 4333-3926, Taiga Aisaka roared past Yui Hirasawa 4387-3901, Utaha Kasumigaoka defeated Illyasviel von Einzbern 4570-3844, Kaede Azusagawa prevailed over Azusa Nakano 4246-4192, Index Prohibitorum won a 4462-4421 barnburner over Takagi, Schwi Dola crushed Nanami Aoyama 4809-3865 and Sora Kasugano eased past Kumiko Oumae 4606-3622.

In the Male Division, Kyon took down Willem Kmetsch 3931-2632, Eren Yeager whipped past Eugeo 3883-3299, Shouya Ishida torched Masamune Izumi 4156-3297, Ryuunosuke Akasaka defeated Satoshi Fukube 3712-3449, Kiritsugu Emiya shot down Karma Akabane 3729-3492, Conan Edogawa defeated Yuu Otosaka 3911-3626, Takashi Natsume prevailed over Nagisa Shiota 3546-3465, Lelouch Lamperouge got past Shidou Itsuka 3688-3398 and Yato flew past Giyuu Tomioka 3550-3351.

In a special group contest for Female Seasonal participants, making the cut were Beatrice (42507.1), Shizuka Hiratsuka (39924.9), Echidna (38082.3) and Kyaru (37885). Finally, in other exhibition play, Asuka Tanako routed Endorsi Jahad 4431-1506, Sakura Nanamine won a 2671-2250 snoozer over Yomi Takeda, Jashin-chan dropkicked Shuka Karino 3358-2670 and Hinata Hyuuga dominated Somali 3884-2392.

Match Day 2 of the 2020 International Saimoe League Eliminations Period is scheduled for January 20, 2021. Vote for your favorite characters at InternationalSaimoe.com and join the ongoing debate.

[LecTaCin]

Wow, first upset of the playoffs on the very first day with Hayasaka beating Rikka. Kaguya-sama faction looks too strong this year, I can hardly see anyone else winning the tiara and scepter to be honest.

Kaguya-sama faction is strong enough, of course. But representatively, Kaguya also had lost by Asuna this year, which means other favorites may beat her too.
Though she already defeated Mikoto, Mai, and Mashiro, I'm just considering there may be some changes because of that ONE loss in the Regular Season.



But in Scepter.....No explanations are needed.

[WarmMist]

Kaguya-sama faction is strong enough, of course. But representatively, Kaguya also had lost by Asuna this year, which means other favorites may beat her too.
Though she already defeated Mikoto, Mai, and Mashiro, I'm just considering there may be some changes because of that ONE loss in the Regular Season.

Sure, I'm not saying it's impossible for her to lose, just that it seems very unlikely at the moment. A strong Rikka getting sniped by the third girl in the series just shows how strong her faction is at the moment (when it really matters).

Of course, the playoffs just started and we'll have to see how the other girls perform, since performance on regular season and on elimination period have often been unrelated. We'll see in the upcoming days, but it's hard to deny that the Kaguya-sama faction has made a big statement.

[RichardJoash]

NewsShow

ISML 2020: Ai Hayasaka With A Shocker!

By Jo-Ryan Salazar
The Bedlam On Baltic Avenue
January 19, 2021

Kaguya Shinomiya, unsurprisingly, covered the spread in her 6069-4012 rout of Misaki Shokuhou on Match Day 1 of the 2020 International Saimoe League Elimination Period, but Ai Hayasaka scored the Upset of the Round, a 4966-4036 thriller over Rikka Takanashi. Sakuta Azusagawa thumped Saitama 5457-3202 while Rintarou Okabe dominated Archer 4841-3536.

Making the cut for the ISML Fall Seasonal cut were Ayumu Uehara (2207), Setsuna Yuuki (2207), Elaina (6294), Saya (3123), Aurora Suya Rhys Kaymin (2805), Nana Hiiragi (2232), Yui Hanasaka (2242), Kaname Arisugawa (2467), Tsukasa Yuzaki (5124), Sakura Adachi (2963), Hougetsu Shimamura (2442), Sharo Kirima (2941), Rize Tedeza (3278), Rika Furude (2386), Kyouko Izanami (2423) and Hina Sato (2516). Elaina is tipped by the Bedlam to win the Fall Seasonal for the right to challenge Kei Shirogane for the Speaker of the Saimoe Diet position.

Consolation matches also took place. In the Female Division, Mitsuha Miyamizu won the clsest race of the round, a 4463-4455 thriller over Sagiri Izumi, Saber slashed past Hina Amano 4977-3596, Shouko Makinohara pummeled Eriri Spencer Sawamura 4333-3926, Taiga Aisaka roared past Yui Hirasawa 4387-3901, Utaha Kasumigaoka defeated Illyasviel von Einzbern 4570-3844, Kaede Azusagawa prevailed over Azusa Nakano 4246-4192, Index Prohibitorum won a 4462-4421 barnburner over Takagi, Schwi Dola crushed Nanami Aoyama 4809-3865 and Sora Kasugano eased past Kumiko Oumae 4606-3622.

In the Male Division, Kyon took down Willem Kmetsch 3931-2632, Eren Yeager whipped past Eugeo 3883-3299, Shouya Ishida torched Masamune Izumi 4156-3297, Ryuunosuke Akasaka defeated Satoshi Fukube 3712-3449, Kiritsugu Emiya shot down Karma Akabane 3729-3492, Conan Edogawa defeated Yuu Otosaka 3911-3626, Takashi Natsume prevailed over Nagisa Shiota 3546-3465, Lelouch Lamperouge got past Shidou Itsuka 3688-3398 and Yato flew past Giyuu Tomioka 3550-3351.

In a special group contest for Female Seasonal participants, making the cut were Beatrice (42507.1), Shizuka Hiratsuka (39924.9), Echidna (38082.3) and Kyaru (37885). Finally, in other exhibition play, Asuka Tanako routed Endorsi Jahad 4431-1506, Sakura Nanamine won a 2671-2250 snoozer over Yomi Takeda, Jashin-chan dropkicked Shuka Karino 3358-2670 and Hinata Hyuuga dominated Somali 3884-2392.

Match Day 2 of the 2020 International Saimoe League Eliminations Period is scheduled for January 20, 2021. Vote for your favorite characters at InternationalSaimoe.com and join the ongoing debate.

What about Riri, Yuyu and Aliceliese because I already watched the final episode of Assault Lily.

[Hachiko]

NewsShow

ISML 2020: Ai Hayasaka With A Shocker!

By Jo-Ryan Salazar
The Bedlam On Baltic Avenue
January 19, 2021

Kaguya Shinomiya, unsurprisingly, covered the spread in her 6069-4012 rout of Misaki Shokuhou on Match Day 1 of the 2020 International Saimoe League Elimination Period, but Ai Hayasaka scored the Upset of the Round, a 4966-4036 thriller over Rikka Takanashi. Sakuta Azusagawa thumped Saitama 5457-3202 while Rintarou Okabe dominated Archer 4841-3536.

Making the cut for the ISML Fall Seasonal cut were Ayumu Uehara (2207), Setsuna Yuuki (2207), Elaina (6294), Saya (3123), Aurora Suya Rhys Kaymin (2805), Nana Hiiragi (2232), Yui Hanasaka (2242), Kaname Arisugawa (2467), Tsukasa Yuzaki (5124), Sakura Adachi (2963), Hougetsu Shimamura (2442), Sharo Kirima (2941), Rize Tedeza (3278), Rika Furude (2386), Kyouko Izanami (2423) and Hina Sato (2516). Elaina is tipped by the Bedlam to win the Fall Seasonal for the right to challenge Kei Shirogane for the Speaker of the Saimoe Diet position.

Consolation matches also took place. In the Female Division, Mitsuha Miyamizu won the clsest race of the round, a 4463-4455 thriller over Sagiri Izumi, Saber slashed past Hina Amano 4977-3596, Shouko Makinohara pummeled Eriri Spencer Sawamura 4333-3926, Taiga Aisaka roared past Yui Hirasawa 4387-3901, Utaha Kasumigaoka defeated Illyasviel von Einzbern 4570-3844, Kaede Azusagawa prevailed over Azusa Nakano 4246-4192, Index Prohibitorum won a 4462-4421 barnburner over Takagi, Schwi Dola crushed Nanami Aoyama 4809-3865 and Sora Kasugano eased past Kumiko Oumae 4606-3622.

In the Male Division, Kyon took down Willem Kmetsch 3931-2632, Eren Yeager whipped past Eugeo 3883-3299, Shouya Ishida torched Masamune Izumi 4156-3297, Ryuunosuke Akasaka defeated Satoshi Fukube 3712-3449, Kiritsugu Emiya shot down Karma Akabane 3729-3492, Conan Edogawa defeated Yuu Otosaka 3911-3626, Takashi Natsume prevailed over Nagisa Shiota 3546-3465, Lelouch Lamperouge got past Shidou Itsuka 3688-3398 and Yato flew past Giyuu Tomioka 3550-3351.

In a special group contest for Female Seasonal participants, making the cut were Beatrice (42507.1), Shizuka Hiratsuka (39924.9), Echidna (38082.3) and Kyaru (37885). Finally, in other exhibition play, Asuka Tanako routed Endorsi Jahad 4431-1506, Sakura Nanamine won a 2671-2250 snoozer over Yomi Takeda, Jashin-chan dropkicked Shuka Karino 3358-2670 and Hinata Hyuuga dominated Somali 3884-2392.

Match Day 2 of the 2020 International Saimoe League Eliminations Period is scheduled for January 20, 2021. Vote for your favorite characters at InternationalSaimoe.com and join the ongoing debate.

What about Riri, Yuyu and Aliceliese because I already watched the final episode of Assault Lily.

Only those who made the cut were mentioned in the report.

[Ennadai]

Postseason Elimination Stage DAY1Show

Contestant	VF	Contestant	VF	VD	Abstention
Shinomiya Kaguya	6069	Shokuhō Misaki	4012	2057	0.0%
Hayasaka Ai	4966	Takanashi Rikka	4936	30	1.8%
Azusagawa Sakuta	5457	Saitama	3202	2255	14.1%
Okabe Rintarō	4841	Archer	3596	1245	16.3%
Miyamizu Mitsuha	4463	Izumi Sagiri	4455	8	11.5%
Saber	4977	Amano Hina	3596	1381	15.0%
Makinohara Shōko	4333	Sawamura Spencer Eriri	3926	407	18.1%
Aisaka Taiga	4387	Hirasawa Yui	3901	486	17.8%
Kasumigaoka Utaha	4570	Illyasviel von Einzbern	3844	726	16.5%
Azusagawa Kaede	4246	Nakano Azusa	4192	54	16.3%
Index L. Prohibitorum	4462	Takagi	4421	41	11.9%
Schwi Dola	4809	Aoyama Nanami	3865	944	14.0%
Kasugano Sora	4606	Ōmae Kumiko	3622	984	18.4%
Eren Yeager	3883	Eugeo	3299	584	28.8%
Kyon	3931	Willem Kmetsch	2632	1299	34.9%
Ishida Shōya	4156	Izumi Masamune	3297	859	26.1%
Akasaka Ryūnosuke	3712	Fukube Satoshi	3449	263	29.0%
Emiya Kiritsugu	3729	Akabane Karma	3492	237	28.4%
Edogawa Conan	3911	Otosaka Yū	3626	285	25.2%
Natsume Takashi	3546	Shiota Nagisa	3465	81	30.5%
Lelouch Lamperouge	3688	Itsuka Shidō	3398	290	29.7%
Yato	3550	Tomioka Giyū	3351	199	31.5%
Tanaka Asuka	4431	Endorsi Jahad	1506	2925	41.1%
Nanamine Sakura	2671	Takeda Yomi	2250	421	51.2%
Jashin-chan	3358	Karino Shuka	2670	688	40.2%
Hyūga Hinata	3884	Somali	2392	1492	37.7%

SpoilerShow

	Name	VF% (FEV%)	Z-score	PV(0.1)	PV(0.2)	PV(0.5)
PS1 01	Shinomiya Kaguya	60.20% (59.70%)	+0.2	164.405 (+0.379)	186.200 (+0.084)	205.916 (-0.141)
	Shokuhō Misaki	39.80% (40.30%)	-0.2	114.348 (-0.379)	123.646 (-0.084)	135.890 (+0.141)
PS1 02	Hayasaka Ai	50.15% (46.94%)	+1.3	118.820 (+0.444)	126.836 (+1.308)	133.982 (+7.543)
	Takanashi Rikka	49.85% (53.06%)	-1.3	126.065 (-0.444)	136.500 (-1.308)	148.214 (-7.543)
PS1 03	Azusagawa Sakuta	63.02% (60.22%)	+1.0	155.242 (+1.298)	178.982 (+1.495)	200.462 (+1.456)
	Saitama	36.98% (39.78%)	-1.0	109.622 (-1.298)	114.511 (-1.495)	119.935 (-1.456)
PS1 04	Okabe Rintarō	57.38% (52.82%)	+1.7	124.273 (+1.231)	139.647 (+2.173)	155.636 (+5.972)
	Archer	42.62% (47.18%)	-1.7	111.623 (-1.231)	118.883 (-2.173)	126.019 (-5.972)
PS1 06	Miyamizu Mitsuha	50.04% (45.34%)	+4.3	96.140 (+0.596)	94.882 (+1.942)	96.640 (+6.652)
	Izumi Sagiri	49.96% (54.66%)	-4.3	106.691 (-0.596)	110.238 (-1.942)	109.758 (-6.652)
PS1 07	Saber	58.05% (52.14%)	+6.2	94.195 (+1.149)	98.451 (+1.993)	105.153 (+5.663)
	Amano Hina	41.95% (47.86%)	-6.2	85.868 (-1.149)	84.864 (-1.993)	85.729 (-5.663)
PS1 08	Makinohara Shōko	52.46% (49.46%)	+2.9	91.755 (+0.590)	92.392 (+1.328)	100.494 (+2.211)
	Sawamura Spencer Eriri	47.54% (50.54%)	-2.9	93.265 (-0.590)	93.835 (-1.328)	95.269 (-2.211)
PS1 09	Aisaka Taiga	52.93% (52.12%)	+1.0	98.796 (+0.380)	99.667 (+0.412)	103.247 (-0.594)
	Hirasawa Yui	47.07% (47.88%)	-1.0	94.318 (-0.380)	91.741 (-0.412)	90.686 (+0.594)
PS1 10	Kasumigaoka Utaha	54.31% (54.79%)	-0.3	105.064 (+0.180)	110.502 (-0.281)	118.825 (-1.776)
	Illyasviel von Einzbern	45.69% (45.21%)	+0.3	91.358 (-0.180)	90.875 (+0.281)	96.678 (+1.776)
PS1 11	Azusagawa Kaede	50.32% (47.45%)	+1.7	90.932 (+0.276)	89.585 (+0.954)	96.567 (+4.585)
	Nakano Azusa	49.68% (52.55%)	-1.7	94.717 (-0.276)	96.026 (-0.954)	104.450 (-4.585)
PS1 12	Index L. Prohibitorum	50.23% (53.20%)	-7.7	98.111 (-0.507)	96.955 (-1.236)	96.260 (-2.606)
	Takagi	49.77% (46.80%)	+7.7	88.117 (+0.507)	86.220 (+1.236)	90.187 (+2.606)
PS1 13	Schwi Dola	55.44% (51.06%)	+1.5	104.087 (+0.753)	111.388 (+1.763)	127.324 (+6.306)
	Aoyama Nanami	44.56% (48.94%)	-1.5	95.871 (-0.753)	102.242 (-1.763)	113.705 (-6.306)
PS1 14	Kasugano Sora	55.98% (47.76%)	+5.4	87.367 (+1.100)	83.239 (+2.537)	85.857 (+9.095)
	Ōmae Kumiko	44.02% (52.24%)	-5.4	86.381 (-1.100)	83.582 (-2.537)	83.763 (-9.095)
PS1 15	Eren Yeager	54.07% (48.56%)	+18.1	95.290 (+1.015)	94.596 (+2.236)	97.618 (+5.166)
	Eugeo	45.93% (51.44%)	-18.1	97.847 (-1.015)	96.915 (-2.236)	92.491 (-5.166)
PS1 16	Kyon	59.90% (50.43%)	+6.8	94.782 (+1.666)	96.167 (+3.574)	109.434 (+9.538)
	Willem Kmetsch	40.10% (49.57%)	-6.8	88.495 (-1.666)	88.258 (-3.574)	89.195 (-9.538)
PS1 17	Ishida Shōya	55.76% (50.78%)	+3.3	97.974 (+0.729)	99.150 (+1.812)	106.831 (+6.419)
	Izumi Masamune	44.24% (49.22%)	-3.3	89.485 (-0.729)	91.656 (-1.812)	96.262 (-6.419)
PS1 18	Akasaka Ryūnosuke	51.84% (46.42%)	+2.7	93.237 (+0.699)	92.884 (+1.986)	102.505 (+8.013)
	Fukube Satoshi	48.16% (53.58%)	-2.7	98.765 (-0.699)	101.631 (-1.986)	110.700 (-8.013)
PS1 19	Emiya Kiritsugu	51.64% (51.75%)	-0.1	99.324 (+0.051)	102.613 (-0.251)	107.005 (+0.048)
	Akabane Karma	48.36% (48.25%)	+0.1	93.892 (-0.051)	94.144 (+0.251)	100.296 (-0.048)
PS1 20	Edogawa Conan	51.89% (51.30%)	+1.2	103.831 (+0.255)	104.333 (+0.336)	106.097 (-0.310)
	Otosaka Yū	48.11% (48.70%)	-1.2	100.691 (-0.255)	99.317 (-0.336)	97.768 (+0.310)
PS1 21	Natsume Takashi	50.58% (49.89%)	+0.5	95.992 (+0.160)	98.504 (+0.139)	104.329 (+0.907)
	Shiota Nagisa	49.42% (50.11%)	-0.5	96.645 (-0.160)	97.351 (-0.139)	103.740 (-0.907)
PS1 22	Lelouch Lamperouge	52.05% (53.11%)	-0.8	105.448 (-0.135)	108.599 (-0.420)	114.960 (-1.617)
	Itsuka Shidō	47.95% (46.89%)	+0.8	94.820 (+0.135)	96.830 (+0.420)	102.812 (+1.617)
PS1 23	Yato	51.44% (50.03%)	+3.5	89.716 (+0.349)	90.472 (+0.396)	92.760 (+1.083)
	Tomioka Giyū	48.56% (49.97%)	-3.5	90.790 (-0.349)	88.483 (-0.396)	89.666 (-1.083)